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Look for this page to be updated only when preanounced the evening before

March 25, 1997 @ 10:15AM

The OEX had very little follow through on the open. Although the S&P500 is above my self imposed brick wall, I am not overly enthused about the upside implications. The volume for the 1st 30 minutes was very low. The Prudent Trader still feels that 773 on the OEX is as good as it gets for today. Neutrality prevents me from going short at 773 but if I wasn't a Prudent Trader I just might.

The XAU continues to waste away because of its "disease state". I'll call it "yellow fever" because it wants gold to move up. After rising back above 352 on the April gold futures, the futures have now slipped back below that critical price. The US dollar is mixed and the price of gold is still congesting for a move.....but where to? I still have no idea, only a preference for the upside.

March 21, 1997 @3:15pm

The OEX has been marking time all day and I have been hypnotized into a trance. Neither red trendline was siffuciently broke today. No action was taken. No action is now anticipated because and price move is liable to be unwound anyway on Monday. Have a nice weekend.

The XAU is still marking time. It's had the opportunity to sell off further but hasn't. That's mildly encouraging but there is still plenty to be worried about if you are long. I am still long and hoping for some buying into the close to get the weekly closing price above 112 or so.

March21, 1997 @10:10AM

The OEX openned up and just crested to the trendline I outlined in last evenings commentary. I would like to see it rise a couple of points above the trendline and then fall back before going long. Still flat. It does look like an upside bias is there despite IBM. SOX and NASDAQ look better. A/D line is better.

The XAU is still struggling as it waits for the gold futures to push above 355. I have my fingers crossed. Still long.

March20, 1997 @ 10:20AM est

The XAU is really lagging despite a fair to up gold market. It truly wants to see 355 broken. In the meantime it remains range bound between 111.50 and 114.00 and the current 112.75 price is dead in the middle. Still long but nervous.

The OEX is in my "no man's land" price zone betweem 758 amd 767. Please reread the play book for today regarding what to do in the OEX commentary.

March 18, 1997 @ 3:27PM est

The G7 gold futures rallied back to close above 350. Whew, that was close!. The XAU still sluggish, but this Prudent Trader is still long.

The OEX looks like an index that is in a wide trading range. A move to new lows will probably be a buying opportunity. I will wait for it, hopefully tomorrow.

March 18, 1997 @11:10AM est

Please forgive the untimley post. I've been tied up watching the XAU and Gold Futures and hating every minute of it. I am a bit worried at present but giving things some time. As I said, bottom fishing is a scary sport. Gold has sold off from 366 to 346 and a bounce to at least 350 or so should occurr.

As far as the OEX, it's a good day to be Neutral. That I am. The probability of higher prices is better than lower prices. The lows set yesterday on OEX are likely to hold

March 11,1997 @ 3:05PM est

The Prudent Trader exited his XAU calls at shortly before 3pm because the index poked above 117. Subsequently the April futures spiked $2.00 but the XAU has not responded in kind. It may, but I'm not waiting to find out. Earlier in the day I felt that 117.50 may be as good as it gets.

The OEX is in a consolidation phase between 786 and 790. It's easy for me to say, but close out any call positions on a break below 786. Preserve meager profits or at least break even. Live to play another day.

March 11, 1997 @ 10:40PM est

Sorry for the delayed post. I was so involved with the XAU that I forgot to post this update. The April gold futures gapped higher on the open to above 355. The futures then settled back to test 353. That 353 to 355 range has to be resolved to the upside or I will exit the XAU calls.The fact that the XAU is divergently doing better than the G7 futures is only mildly comforting.

As far as the OEX, the trend is still up but temporarily pausing. BTW, I never made it to the long side being in slavery on Monday. Use the protective stop technique of your choice but a move below 784 would be bearish. In my opinion, I'd be gone at OEX 783 but that's easy for me to say.

March 6, 1997 @ 3:07PM est

Well traders, I've cleaned my toilet. Hell, I cleaned the whole bathroom. The OEX has corrected back to the 776 critical support level. Between 776 and 778 is true "Limbosville". Hope you exited your calls as recommended. The 30yr bond is very neat the 6.90% yield. If we break above that and we go to Hell. But if yields head back down it's Heaven for a a bit longer. I'm not calling this one. The SOX Index is pressured today but perhaps just testing it's 20 day MA at 279. I'm enjoying my Neutrality and I'm not going to guess the figures tomorrow. It' better to follow than to lead.

The XAU is compressed and waiting to see if the April gold futures are going to 348. I'm a buyer of XAU calls if we get to 114.25. Sitting on sidelines for now.

March 4, 1997 @ 3:15PM est

The OEX has started to move down, but I feel the OEX will turn and rally back to still go to 778 or perhaps better. Sit tight on buying those puts.

The XAU has coiled as it waits to see what the April gold futures plan to due. This will probably occurr over night and will be hard to play in the morning.

March 4, 1997 @ 11:38pm

Sorry for the late update. I was in a car for 3 hours and unable to update. Anyway, I have closed out my XAU puts. I got roughly a 5 point move in the index to 117.93 from 122.40 and a 35% return on the trade. That's good enough for me in a counter trend trade. Also, I will be extremely buisy the next 2 days and it will be hard for me to watch the position. Also, I'm unsure about the gold futures at the present time.

As far as the OEX, the rally was anemic and we are trending higher but not too convinsingly. 778 for this index is doable and the possibility of a put trade is very possible if things deteriorate as we push higher. The fact that I will be buisy the next 2 days is my problem and should not be yours. Use my stop strategy as outlined previously if you go short.

February 26, 1997 @ 3:15PM est

February 26, 1997 @ 10:15AM est

In my eceving commentary I said the market had a high probability of going south. I said that if the OEX went below 785 the romp would be on. Me thinks the romp is on!!

The XAU faked me out. It spiked higher and then promptly reversed. I'm not short and I'm not chasing either. Will watch gold futures because they are higher and at an extreme price level when compared to the previous 25 days of trading. Certainly a mixed signal but as we all know, the stocks lead the metal.

February 25, 1997 @ 10:20AM est

The OEX is moving ahead disproportiantely to the DOW. The tech sector (ie. the SOX) is moving on heavy volume. The Prudent Trader is not impressed but also not eager to get in it's way. I will let this move run it's course and when it turns south, I hope to be there. No price points to discuss at present but A double top in the SOX Index at 303 is a possibility not to be ignored.

The XAU gapped down on the open and remains down. The possibility of XAU 122 doesn't look doable to my dissappointment. I still hope for a bounce back above 120 after the XAU retraces to the mid 117 price range before I will go short

Febraury 24, 1997 @ 8:30AM est

I have a pre-openning update. This will be my only update for Monday. I have not changed my opinion any since my weekend comentary. As far as the OEX is concerned, a break above the upper trendline on the 5 minute OEX chart (see weekend OEX commentary) does not necessarily invalidate the FULL SELL signal until the OEX rises above 787 AND successfully retests 785.50. The Prudent Trader would therefore not enter any long position until the Trailing Indicator clears the way.

For those looking to go short the XAU index, don't chase the options. Let the option seller come to you. Premiums tend to contract after options expiration.

February 21, 1997 @ 10:07AM est

The importance of OEX 783 that I mentioned in last nights commentary is evident on the 5min OEX chart. If the market goes above and then falls back below (but also fails to penetrate and/or stay above OEX 785.50) the plan is to go short once we dip back below OEX 783. OEX 787 would be the protective stop.

The XAU hit an intraday high of 120+ early on. Gold futures have satisfied my price target on decreasing open interest. After some consolidation, a move to 122 would be an excellent place to short this index. 121.50 is good enough for me

February 20, 1997 @3:00PM est

The OEX broke below 785.5 but a close is still not definate. Also, we are currently at 782 on the OEX with a short term target of 779 if you are short. However, I recommend covering any short position that recovers commisiions on a retracement back above 783.50 my original protective stop for those that went against my advice at 10:17AM (see below)

The XAU has satsified all expectations and there is no neede to be around this index for a while. I exited when the index was at 118.50 earlier today

February 20, 1997 @10:17AM est

The OEX openned lower but as of this post has only dipped to 786, just above my target price of 785.5 for a possible long entry. However, I feel the bounce will be minimal and not worth pursuing for SAFETY REASONS. I'm remaining sidelined

The XAU openned lower and went to my target region of 114.25 (and a tad lower). As of this post the 2 trendlines I described in mt evening commentary are doing their job. Still long and hating every minute of it.

February 18, 1997 @ 3:10PM est

On Thursday of last week I said that the OEX would consolidate for 12 trading hours or so. Friday and most of today saw the consolidation. My price point was not hit probably due to the action in Phillip Morris which may have buffered the indexes. The lowest the OEX went was the 784.37. Since my entry price was not hit, I am prevented from going long.

Regarding the XAU, a remareable recovery in spite of the early action in ABX. Presently above 115. The 117.50 target looks good. Still long.

February 18, 1997 @ 10:00AM est

I just posted my comment to exit all calls (if you are long) in the OEX index. The SOX Index was at a large disparity with the DOW. The SPX and OEX were also lagging. The BUY condition we are in says sell calls to preserve profits. Though I'm out of the market and waiting to enter, that's what my sysyem says.

Regarding the XAU, gold futures up strong over night and gave back the gains early in NY but holding now ABOVE friday's close. ABX took a beating this AM on the news yesterday it's OUT of the BUSANG venture. The XAU is clawing it's way back and only further upside in gold will save it now. Overall, if we hold above 113 that will be very encouraging going into the end of the week.

Febraury 12, 1997 @ 3:05PM est

The OEX has rallied to the critical 777 price point where the upper channel of the ascending triangle and a log term trendline converge. See OEX CHART. The OEX infact is poised to close above my 779 target to signal a FULL BUY but the best thing to do is wait for a consolidation or retest of 777 to jump a ride to further highs. I'm talking Thursday-not today.

Meanwhile the XAU is putting in a very significant reversal day. Rough sledding at 112-113 was expected. I expect follow through over the next several days.

February 12, 1997 @ 10:30 am est

Sorry for the outage of my page. It's a free page so we all get what we pay for. Anyway, I suggest you read my OEX commentary if you haven't.View 2/11/97 commentary .Regarding the OEX, currently it is testing the upper channel of the acending triangle. It's TOO, TOO dangerous to take a position. It would be the MOST IMPRUDENT thing to do. Wait for the break and a successful retest or sit tight. Too much money has been lost choosing a side. We've al been there before. How is your track record?

February 11,. 1997 @ 3:07 pm est

We are starting to drop fast. I sense this is it. A dop below 762 on OEX will happen. One change, ignore the call on the SOX hitting the lower band unless we start to bounce back by 2 oex points. Then cover. If you go short, remember to have a stop

February 11, 1997 @ 11:05AM est

The fact that the market openned up and migrated away from 764 changes the scenario. A move later today, after lunch that takes out 764 makes the break all the more significant. If it materializes, the Prudent Trader views a break below 764 good enough to enter a short position if OEX goes below 762. (that's up 1 point from OEX 761)

February 11, 1997 @ 10:25 AM est

The morning rally has had a look of bogusness. The SOX is down 4.00. I sense that the OEX is poised to break 764 if the OEX fails to take out the morning highs before lunch.

February 11, 1997 @ 8:52 AM est

I didn't mention this in my weekend or Monday commentary but the other day my stop on the Friday put trade was gradulally reduced to 767 ( see 3:20 PM 2/7 update below) . If you didn't exit and ended up being in a loss situation when the OEX went to 772, you have a chance to exit now (at open) and cover commision on a trade entered at OEX 768.50 innitiated on Friday. That's my style but it doesn't have to be yours. Whenever a position goes against me and I can get out even, I go with that plan...even if the position will eventually make money. More often than not, the Trading Gods will whip me if I don't.

February 7, 1997 @ 3:20PM

A very busy afternoon. When the OEX broke below 768.50, things happened according to plan. In fact better than expected. The market then tanked and the exit door was presented at OEX 764. We crashed through it. I announced my exit at Avid Trader Chat. I am currently sidelined. The market is still wild. If I was still in play, I'd be using 767 as the price point to be stopped out of the position and cover commissions.

February 7, 1997 @ 12:55pm

The Prudent Trader just pounced on the OEXom's at they were at 16 1/2 bid X 17 1/4 ask once the OEX broke below 768.50 ,consistant with the plan. Will lower my stop now to 770

February 7, 1997 @ 12:15pm eastern

The market has followed script tightly. OEX went below 770 to a critical price 768.50 .Has now rallied back above 770. For total prudence, a break below 768.50 is the Prudent Traders price point to go short, with a price to stop me out of 772 if we should turn back up.

February 7, 1997 @ 10:05am eastern

The OEX pierced above 772. Look now for a retracement.. We have to then rechallenge the intraday highs. Failure to do so over a several hour period is a sign to go short-even moreso if we dip below 770 and can't get back above it.

February 7, 1997 @ 9:00am eastern

Bond and stock futures moving hard and fast in response to a stronger than expected non-farm payroll. Another good reason NOT to be long or short going into today's session. There is an excellent chance that the Prudent Trader's 770 target will be hit. The Prudent Trader would not attempt to go long because of the countertrend nature of such an action. Between 757 and 770 on the OEX is no mans land so I will avoid being sucked in. Any reversal down would be very bearish but that is not a prediction. At the moment, a case could be made that the Trailing Indicator may swith to Sell from Full Sell but we all no what that means. A close above 770 might even signal a change in market condition to FULL BUY, so the quality of the move to 770 (if it materializes) is important. I would not go short the first time the price point is hit!

February 6, 1997 @1:18pm eastern

February 6, 1997 @ 9:00am eastern