2004 Pre-election Polling Analysis

2004 Pre-election Polling Analysis

This analysis will confirm that the 2004 national pre-election registered voter (RV ) polls were closer to the True Vote than likely voter (LV polls). It will also show that the LV polls, after adjustments, matched the RVs – and the unadjusted exit polls.

Real Clear Politics (RCP) is the 2004 data source of 133 national polls (102 were LV and 31 RV).

The final 15 RCP polls all sampled likely voters (LV).

Kerry led the pre-election polls in August, fell behind in September and rebounded in October.

When undecided voters were allocated, Kerry was projected to win.

Kerry did much better in the unadjusted RV average (45.0-45.1) than in LV (45.6-48.1).

Kerry did much better in the adjusted RV projection average (50.1-46.8) than in LV (49.0-49.2).

Kerry led by 47.3-46.9 in the Election Model final national 18 poll average.

Kerry led by 50.9-48.1 in the Election Model final 18 poll projection.

Bush led by 49.0-47.0 in the RCP final 15 LV poll average.

Bush led by 49.8-49.3 in the RCP final 15 LV poll projection.

A comparison of RV vs LV polls shows that Kerry did much better in RVs/

There are plausible reasons for Kerry doing better in the RV polls.

1- RV polls include newly registered voters.

2. The majority of new voters (60%) were Democrats.

3- There was a 17 million net increase in the recorded vote (from 105.4m in 2000 to 122.3m in 2004).

4- Approximately 5m 2000 voters died prior to 2004 and 5m did not vote (95% turnout).

5- Therefore, we can estimate that 95m 2000 voters returned to vote in 2004.

6- There were 125.7m total votes CAST in 2004 (3.4m were uncounted).

7- Therefore, there were approximately 30m (125.7- 95.4) new voters in 2004.

8- Kerry won approximately 18m (60%) of new voters; Bush 12m.

The final 15 RCP poll national average had Bush leading by 49-47%.

The final Gallup poll was an identical 49-47 before it was adjusted for undecided voters.

Gallup assigned 90% of undecided voters to Kerry, so the final Gallup poll had the race tied at 49-49%

Adjusting the RCP/Gallup average for the undecided vote, we can assume that Kerry and Bush split the 95m returning (LV) voters.

The race was tied at 47m with 1m to other (3rd party) voters.

Allocating 60% or 18m of the new voters to Kerry, he is the winner of the True Vote by 65-59m (51.8-46.9%).

Is it just a coincidence that Kerry also had 51.8% in the unadjusted aggregate state exit poll (WPE method)?

Now let's compare the True Vote result to the pre-election national polls.

As per Gallup, the final 15 LV poll average, adjusted for undecided voters, was 49-49%.

But the LV polls did not sample new RVs.

The Election Model utilized 18 final national polls, of which 9 were RV and 9 LV.

After allocating 75% of undecided voters to Kerry, he led by 50.9-48.1%

Based on the 122.3m recorded vote, Kerry won by 62.3-58.8m

Kerry's projected share was just 0.9% below the True Vote share (51.8%) calculated above.

But the projection did not include the 3.4m uncounted votes (2.74% of 125.7 total votes cast).

Assuming that Kerry won 75% of the uncounted votes, add 2.5m to his total and 0.9m to Bush.

Kerry's margin becomes 64.8-59.7m (51.6- 47.5%), just 0.2% of the True Vote and the unadjusted exit poll WPE).

When the pre-election LV polls are adjusted for new (RV) and undecided voters, they match the Election Model aggregate.

Real Clear Politics - 133 National Polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

2-party

Projected

Final 5

Poll MA

RCP

Date

Kerry

Bush

Other

Spread

Kerry

Bush

Diff

Kerry

Bush

Kerry

Bush

133 Poll average

7/6 - 11/1

45.5%

47.4%

2.1%

2.0%

49.0%

51.0%

2.1%

49.26%

48.63%

49.47%

49.51%

102 LV

7/6 - 11/1

45.6%

48.1%

1.8%

2.5%

48.7%

51.3%

-2.6%

48.99%

49.20%

49.05%

49.13%

31 RV

7/6 - 9/26

45.0%

45.1%

3.1%

0.03%

50.0%

-0.0%

50.14%

46.77%

50.40%

46.43%

Diff

-0.6%

-3.0%

1.3%

-2.44%

1.3%

-1.3%

2.6%

1.14%

-2.43%

1.36%

-2.69%

Final 15 (all LV)

10/22-11/01

47.0%

49.0%

0.94%

2.0%

48.95%

51.05%

2.09%

49.29%

49.77%

49.47%

49.51%

Election Model -18 National Polls (9RV, 9LV)

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

Sample

Final

Poll

2-party

75% UVA

Projected

Final 5-Poll MA

Election Model

Date

Size

Poll

Kerry

Bush

Kerry

Bush

Diff

Kerry

Bush

Kerry

Bush

18 National Polls

Average

1720

Type

47.28

46.89

50.21%

49.79%

0.41%

50.90

48.10

51.25

47.75

20-Oct

976

51.6%

48.4%

3.2%

52.0

47.0

52.0

47.0

Time

21-Oct

803

47.4%

52.6%

-5.2%

47.5

51.5

49.8

49.3

LAT

24-Oct

1698

50.5%

49.5%

1.1%

51.0

48.0

50.2

48.8

ICR

26-Oct

817

48.9%

51.1%

-2.2%

50.8

48.3

50.3

48.7

Nwk

29-Oct

1005

48.4%

51.6%

-3.2%

49.5

50.2

48.9

Pew

30-Oct

2408

50.5%

49.5%

1.1%

52.0

47.0

50.2

48.9

ARG

30-Oct

1258

50.5%

49.5%

1.0%

50.5

48.5

50.8

48.3

ABC

31-Oct

3511

50.5%

49.5%

1.1%

51.0

48.0

50.8

48.3

NBC

31-Oct

1014

49.5%

50.5%

-1.1%

50.0

49.0

50.6

48.4

Gallup

31-Oct

1866

51.1%

48.9%

2.1%

51.8

47.3

51.1

48.0

Dem Corp

31-Oct

1018

50.5%

49.5%

1.1%

51.0

48.0

50.9

48.2

FOX

31-Oct

1400

51.6%

48.4%

3.2%

52.5

46.5

51.3

47.8

CBS

1-Nov

1125

49.5%

50.5%

-1.1%

50.5

48.5

51.2

47.9

TIPP

1-Nov

1284

49.4%

50.6%

-1.1%

51.5

47.5

51.5

47.6

Econ

1-Nov

2903

52.1%

47.9%

4.3%

52.8

46.3

51.7

47.4

Marist

1-Nov

1166

50.5%

49.5%

1.0%

50.5

48.5

51.6

47.5

Zogby

2-Nov

1200

49.5%

50.5%

-1.1%

50.0

49.0

51.1

48.0

Harris

2-Nov

5508

51.5%

48.5%

3.1%

51.5

47.5

51.3

47.8

RCP Final 15 LV Polls

Poll

2-party

Projected

Final 5-poll MA

Date

Kerry

Bush

Other

Spread

Kerry

Bush

Diff

Kerry

Bush

Kerry

Bush

Average

10/22-11/01

47.0%

49.0%

0.9%

2.0%

49.0%

51.0%

2.1%

49.29%

49.77%

49.47%

49.51%

ICR (741)

10/22 - 10/26

45%

48%

48.4%

51.6%

3.2%

48.8%

49.3%

48.6%

50.0%

GW/Battleground (1000)

10/25 - 10/28

46%

51%

47.4%

52.6%

5.2%

48.3%

51.8%

48.9%

50.1%

Newsweek (882)

10/27 - 10/29

44%

50%

46.8%

53.2%

6.4%

47.8%

51.3%

48.5%

50.5%

Pew Research (1925)

10/27 - 10/30

48%

51%

48.5%

51.5%

3.0%

48.0%

51.0%

48.1%

51.0%

CBS/NY Times (643)

10/28 - 10/30

46%

49%

48.4%

51.6%

3.2%

49.0%

50.0%

48.4%

50.7%

ARG (1258)

10/28 - 10/30

48%

50.0%

0.0%

50.3%

48.8%

48.7%

50.6%

ABC/Wash Post (2904)**

10/28 - 10/31

48%

49%

49.5%

50.5%

1.0%

50.3%

49.8%

49.1%

50.2%

NBC/WSJ (1014)

10/29 - 10/31

47%

48%

49.5%

50.5%

1.1%

50.0%

49.0%

49.5%

49.7%

CNN/USA/Gallup(1573)*

10/29 - 10/31

49%

50.0%

0.0%

49.8%

49.3%

49.9%

49.4%

Reuters/Zogby (1208)

10/29 - 10/31

47%

48%

49.5%

50.5%

1.1%

50.0%

49.0%

50.1%

49.2%

FOX News (1200)

10/30 - 10/31

48%

46%

-2%

51.1%

48.9%

-2.1%

51.8%

47.3%

50.4%

48.9%

Harris (1509(

10/29 - 11/1

48%

49%

49.5%

50.5%

1.0%

48.8%

49.3%

50.1%

48.8%

CBS News (939)

10/29 - 11/1

47%

49%

49.0%

51.0%

2.1%

49.3%

49.8%

49.9%

48.9%

TIPP (1041 LV

10/30 - 11/1

48%

50%

48.9%

51.1%

2.1%

48.6%

50.3%

49.7%

49.1%

GW/Battleground (1000)

10/31 - 11/1

46%

50%

47.9%

52.1%

4.2%

49.0%

51.0%

49.5%

RCP Monthy Average

Poll

2-party

Projected

Average

Date

Kerry

Bush

Other

Spread

Kerry

Bush

Diff

Kerry

Bush

Kerry

Bush

Average

45.9%

47.3%

2.1%

1.4%

49.3%

50.7%

0.7%

49.41%

48.48%

49.63%

48.21%

July

46.1%

44.1%

3.4%

-2.0%

51.1%

48.9%

2.2%

50.9%

45.7%

50.9%

45.7%

Aug

46.4%

45.3%

2.8%

-1.1%

50.6%

49.4%

1.3%

50.6%

46.6%

50.7%

46.5%

Sep

43.4%

49.2%

2.0%

5.8%

46.9%

53.1%

-4.6%

47.5%

50.5%

47.6%

50.3%

Oct

46.2%

48.4%

1.4%

2.2%

48.8%

51.2%

2.4%

49.2%

49.4%

49.1%

49.6%

Nov

47.3%

49.5%

1.0%

2.3%

48.8%

51.2%

2.4%

48.9%

50.1%

49.8%

49.1%

RCP - 102 LV POLLS

2-party

Projected

5-Poll MA

Date

Kerry

Bush

Other

Spread

Kerry

Bush

Diff

Kerry

Bush

Kerry

Bush

AVERAGE

7/6 - 9/26

45.62%

48.07%

1.80%

2.46%

48.70%

51.30%

-2.61%

48.99%

49.20%

49.47%

49.51%

Zogby (1008 LV)

7/6-7/7

47%

45%

-2%

51.1%

48.9%

2.2%

51.5%

46.5%

51.5%

46.5%

Time (774 LV)

7/6-7/8

47%

45%

-2%

51.1%

48.9%

2.2%

50.0%

46.0%

50.8%

46.3%

CNN/Gallup/USAT (706 LV)

7/8-7/11

50%

45%

-5%

52.6%

47.4%

5.3%

52.3%

45.8%

51.3%

46.1%

Dem Corps** (1,010 LV)

7/10-7/13

48%

45%

-3%

51.6%

48.4%

3.2%

50.3%

45.8%

51.0%

46.0%

CNN/Gallup/USAT (709 LV)

7/19-7/21

47%

46%

-1%

50.5%

49.5%

1.1%

49.3%

46.8%

50.7%

46.2%

Fox News (767 LV)

7/20-7/21

44%

43%

-1%

50.6%

49.4%

1.1%

51.5%

45.5%

50.7%

46.0%

ABC News/WP (LV)

7/30-8/1

49%

47%

-2%

51.0%

49.0%

2.1%

50.5%

47.5%

50.8%

46.3%

CNN/Gallup/USAT (LV)

7/30-8/1

45%

51%

46.9%

53.1%

-6.3%

46.5%

51.5%

49.6%

47.4%

Marist (573 LV)

7/30-8/2

47%

50.0%

0.0%

50.8%

48.3%

49.7%

47.9%

Fox News (775 LV)

8/3 - 8/4

47%

43%

-4%

52.2%

47.8%

4.4%

53.0%

45.0%

50.5%

47.6%

Dem Corps**** (1,013 LV)

8/2 - 8/5

49%

44%

-5%

52.7%

47.3%

5.4%

51.3%

44.8%

50.4%

47.4%

Time/SRBI (758 LV)

8/3 - 8/5

48%

43%

-5%

52.7%

47.3%

5.5%

51.8%

44.3%

50.7%

46.8%

Gallup (729 LV)

8/9 - 8/11

46%

48%

48.9%

51.1%

-2.1%

48.3%

48.8%

51.0%

46.2%

Zogby (1,011 LV)

8/12 - 8/14

47%

43%

-4%

52.2%

47.8%

4.4%

53.0%

45.0%

51.5%

45.6%

Harris ( LV from 1012 adults)

8/10 - 8/15

47%

50.0%

0.0%

49.3%

47.8%

50.7%

46.1%

Battleground Poll (1,000 LV)

8/15 - 8/17

44%

43%

-1%

50.6%

49.4%

1.1%

53.0%

46.0%

51.1%

46.4%

NPR - POS/GQR (800 LV)

8/21 - 8/24

47%

43%

-4%

52.2%

47.8%

4.4%

52.3%

44.8%

51.2%

46.5%

CNN/USAT/Gallup (709 LV)

8/23 - 8/25

46%

48%

48.9%

51.1%

-2.1%

47.5%

48.5%

51.0%

46.4%

FOX News (1,000 LV)

8/24 - 8/25

44%

43%

-1%

50.6%

49.4%

1.1%

51.5%

45.5%

50.7%

46.5%

Time (835 LV)

8/24 - 8/26

44%

46%

48.9%

51.1%

-2.2%

47.8%

47.3%

50.4%

46.4%

ABC News/WP (775 LV)

8/26 - 8/29

48%

50.0%

0.0%

50.3%

48.8%

49.9%

47.0%

ARG (800 LV)

8/30 - 9/1

47%

50.0%

0.0%

49.3%

47.8%

49.3%

47.6%

Zogby (1001 LV)

8/30 - 9/2

43%

46%

48.3%

51.7%

-3.4%

49.0%

48.0%

49.6%

47.5%

Time (926 LV)

8/31 - 9/2

41%

52%

11%

44.1%

55.9%

-11.8%

44.0%

53.0%

48.1%

49.0%

CNN/USAT/Gallup (778 LV)

9/3 - 9/5

45%

52%

46.4%

53.6%

-7.2%

46.5%

52.5%

47.8%

50.0%

Pew Research (745 LV)

9/8 - 9/10

38%

54%

16%

41.3%

58.7%

-17.4%

42.5%

55.5%

46.3%

51.4%

ABC News/Wash Post (LV)

9/6 - 9/8

43%

52%

45.3%

54.7%

-9.5%

45.3%

52.8%

45.5%

52.4%

FOX/Opin. Dyn. (1000 LV)

9/7 - 9/8

43%

47%

47.8%

52.2%

-4.4%

48.3%

48.8%

45.3%

52.5%

AP/Ipsos (899 LV)

9/7 - 9/9

46%

51%

47.4%

52.6%

-5.2%

47.5%

51.5%

46.0%

52.2%

Time (857 LV)

9/7 - 9/9

41%

52%

11%

44.1%

55.9%

-11.8%

44.0%

53.0%

45.5%

52.3%

Zogby (1018 LV)

9/8 - 9/9

42%

46%

47.7%

52.3%

-4.5%

49.5%

48.5%

46.9%

50.9%

IBD/TIPP (674 LV)

9/7 - 9/12

46%

50.0%

0.0%

49.8%

47.3%

47.8%

49.8%

Harris (867 LV)

9/9 - 9/13

48%

47%

-1%

50.5%

49.5%

1.1%

50.3%

47.8%

48.2%

49.6%

Pew Research (725 LV)

9/11 - 9/14

46%

47%

49.5%

50.5%

-1.1%

50.5%

48.5%

48.8%

49.0%

Battleground (1000 LV)

9/12 - 9/15

45%

49%

47.9%

52.1%

-4.3%

48.8%

50.3%

49.8%

48.5%

CNN/USAT/Gallup (767 LV)

9/13 - 9/15

40%

54%

14%

42.6%

57.4%

-14.9%

42.3%

54.8%

48.3%

49.7%

ARG (LV)

9/7 - 9/21

46%

47%

49.5%

50.5%

-1.1%

50.5%

48.5%

50.0%

IBD/TIPP (650 LV)

9/14 - 9/18

42%

45%

48.3%

51.7%

-3.4%

50.3%

47.8%

48.5%

50.0%

Zogby (1066 LV)

9/17 - 9/19

43%

46%

48.3%

51.7%

-3.4%

50.5%

48.5%

50.0%

NBC News/WSJ (787 LV)

9/17 - 9/19

46%

50%

47.9%

52.1%

-4.2%

48.3%

50.8%

48.4%

50.1%

AP/Ipsos (931 LV)

9/20 - 9/22

45%

52%

46.4%

53.6%

-7.2%

46.5%

52.5%

49.2%

49.6%

CBS News (931 LV)

9/20 - 9/22

42%

51%

45.2%

54.8%

-9.7%

45.8%

52.3%

48.3%

50.4%

Marist (630 LV)

9/20 - 9/22

44%

50%

46.8%

53.2%

-6.4%

47.0%

51.0%

47.6%

51.0%

Battleground (1000 LV)

9/20 - 9/23

45%

50%

47.4%

52.6%

-5.3%

48.8%

51.3%

47.3%

51.6%

FOX News (1000 LV)

9/21 - 9/22

42%

46%

47.7%

52.3%

-4.5%

50.3%

48.8%

47.7%

51.2%

Time (877 LV)

9/21 - 9/23

42%

48%

46.7%

53.3%

-6.7%

45.8%

49.3%

47.5%

50.5%

ABC News/WP (810 LV)

9/23 - 9/26

45%

51%

46.9%

53.1%

-6.3%

47.3%

51.8%

47.8%

50.4%

IBD/TIPP (649 LV)

9/22 - 9/27

45%

50.0%

0.0%

51.0%

47.0%

48.6%

49.6%

CNN/USAT/Gallup (758 LV)

9/24 - 9/26

44%

52%

45.8%

54.2%

-8.3%

44.8%

52.3%

47.8%

49.8%

LA Times (1100 LV)

9/25 - 9/28

45%

51%

46.9%

53.1%

-6.3%

46.5%

51.5%

47.1%

50.4%

Battleground (1000 LV)

9/27 - 9/30

44%

51%

46.3%

53.7%

-7.4%

47.0%

52.0%

47.3%

50.9%

SHU Poll Inst. (1003 LV)

9/27 - 10/2

43%

48%

47.3%

52.7%

-5.5%

48.3%

49.8%

47.5%

50.5%

Newsweek (1013 RV)

9/30 - 10/2

47%

45%

-2%

51.1%

48.9%

2.2%

51.5%

46.5%

47.6%

50.4%

CNN/USAT/Gallup (772 LV)

10/1 - 10/3

49%

50.0%

0.0%

49.8%

49.3%

48.6%

49.8%

Pew Research (801 LV)

10/1 - 10/3

44%

49%

47.3%

52.7%

-5.4%

47.8%

50.3%

48.9%

49.6%

Zogby (1036 LV)

10/1 - 10/3

43%

46%

48.3%

51.7%

-3.4%

49.8%

48.3%

49.4%

48.8%

CBS News/NYT (561 LV)

10/1 - 10/3

47%

50.0%

0.0%

50.8%

48.3%

49.9%

48.5%

ABC News/WP (1169 LV)

10/1 - 10/3

46%

51%

47.4%

52.6%

-5.2%

47.5%

51.5%

49.1%

49.5%

ARG (800 LV)

10/2 - 10/4

46%

50.0%

0.0%

50.5%

47.5%

49.3%

49.2%

ICR (762 LV)

10/1 - 10/5

45%

51%

46.9%

53.1%

-6.3%

46.5%

51.5%

49.0%

49.4%

Fox News (1000 LV)

10/3 - 10/4

45%

47%

48.9%

51.1%

-2.2%

50.3%

48.8%

49.1%

49.5%

Marist (642 LV)

10/4 - 10/5

46%

49%

48.4%

51.6%

-3.2%

49.0%

50.0%

48.8%

49.9%

AP/Ipsos (944 LV)

10/4 - 10/6

50%

46%

-4%

52.1%

47.9%

4.2%

51.5%

46.5%

49.6%

48.9%

GW/Battleground (1250 LV)

10/3 - 10/7

46%

49%

48.4%

51.6%

-3.2%

49.8%

50.3%

49.4%

Time (886 LV w/leaners)

10/6 - 10/7

45%

46%

49.5%

50.5%

-1.1%

48.8%

47.3%

49.9%

48.6%

CNN/USAT/Gallup (793 LV)

10/9 - 10/10

49%

48%

-1%

50.5%

49.5%

1.0%

50.5%

48.5%

49.9%

48.5%

ICR (763 LV)

10/9 - 10/11

43%

48%

47.3%

52.7%

-5.5%

48.3%

49.8%

48.5%

CBS News (760 LV)

10/9 - 10/11

45%

48%

48.4%

51.6%

-3.2%

48.8%

49.3%

49.2%

49.0%

Zogby (1223 LV)

10/9 - 10/11

45%

50.0%

0.0%

51.0%

47.0%

49.5%

48.4%

ABC/Wash Post* (1248 LV)

10/11 - 10/13

48%

50.0%

0.0%

50.3%

48.8%

49.8%

48.7%

GW/Battleground (1000 LV)

10/11 - 10/14

46%

49%

48.4%

51.6%

-3.2%

49.8%

50.3%

49.6%

49.0%

Newsweek (880 LV)

10/14 - 10/15

44%

50%

46.8%

53.2%

-6.4%

47.8%

51.3%

49.5%

49.3%

Time (865 LV w/leaners)

10/14 - 10/15

47%

48%

49.5%

50.5%

-1.1%

48.5%

49.5%

49.2%

CNN/USAT/Gallup (788 LV)

10/14 - 10/16

44%

52%

45.8%

54.2%

-8.3%

46.3%

52.8%

48.5%

50.3%

CBS/NY Times (678 LV)

10/14 - 10/17

45%

47%

48.9%

51.1%

-2.2%

49.5%

48.5%

48.4%

50.3%

Harris (820 LV)***

10/14 - 10/17

44%

50%

47.1%

52.9%

-5.9%

48.1%

50.9%

48.0%

50.4%

NBC/WSJ (LV w/leaners)

10/16 - 10/18

48%

50.0%

0.0%

50.3%

48.8%

48.5%

49.9%

ABC/Wash Post* (1237 LV)

10/16 - 10/18

46%

51%

47.4%

52.6%

-5.2%

47.5%

51.5%

48.3%

50.5%

Pew Research (1070 LV)

10/15 - 10/19

47%

50.0%

0.0%

50.8%

48.3%

49.2%

49.6%

FOX News (1000 LV)

10/17 - 10/18

42%

49%

46.2%

53.8%

-7.7%

47.3%

50.8%

48.8%

50.0%

Marist (772 LV w/leaners)

10/17 - 10/19

48%

49%

49.5%

50.5%

-1.0%

49.5%

49.1%

49.8%

AP-Ipsos (976 LV)

10/18 - 10/20

49%

46%

-3%

51.6%

48.4%

3.2%

51.3%

46.8%

49.3%

49.4%

GW/Battleground (1000 LV)

10/18 - 10/21

45%

49%

47.9%

52.1%

-4.3%

48.8%

50.3%

49.5%

49.1%

Time (803 LV)

10/19 - 10/21

46%

51%

47.4%

52.6%

-5.2%

46.8%

51.3%

48.7%

49.7%

Newsweek (880 LV)

10/21 - 10/22

46%

48%

48.9%

51.1%

-2.1%

49.8%

49.3%

49.2%

49.4%

Los Angeles Times (881 LV)

10/21 - 10/24

48%

50.0%

0.0%

50.3%

48.8%

49.4%

49.3%

CNN/USAT/Gallup (1195 LV)

10/22 - 10/24

46%

51%

47.4%

52.6%

-5.2%

47.5%

51.5%

48.6%

50.2%

ICR (741 LV)

10/22 - 10/26

45%

48%

48.4%

51.6%

-3.2%

48.75%

49.25%

48.6%

50.0%

GW/Battleground (1000 LV)

10/25 - 10/28

46%

51%

47.4%

52.6%

-5.2%

48.25%

51.75%

48.9%

50.1%

Newsweek (882 LV)

10/27 - 10/29

44%

50%

46.8%

53.2%

-6.4%

47.75%

51.25%

48.5%

50.5%

Pew Research (1925 LV)

10/27 - 10/30

48%

51%

48.5%

51.5%

-3.0%

48.00%

51.00%

48.1%

51.0%

CBS/NY Times (643 LV)

10/28 - 10/30

46%

49%

48.4%

51.6%

-3.2%

49.00%

50.00%

48.4%

50.7%

ARG (1258 LV)

10/28 - 10/30

48%

50.0%

0.0%

50.25%

48.75%

48.7%

50.6%

ABC/Wash Post (2904 LV)**

10/28 - 10/31

48%

49%

49.5%

50.5%

-1.0%

50.25%

49.75%

49.1%

50.2%

NBC/WSJ (1014 LV)

10/29 - 10/31

47%

48%

49.5%

50.5%

-1.1%

50.00%

49.00%

49.5%

49.7%

CNN/USA/Gallup(1573 LV)*

10/29 - 10/31

49%

50.0%

0.0%

49.75%

49.25%

49.9%

49.4%

Reuters/Zogby (1208 LV)

10/29 - 10/31

47%

48%

49.5%

50.5%

-1.1%

50.00%

49.00%

50.1%

49.2%

FOX News (1200 LV)

10/30 - 10/31

48%

46%

-2%

51.1%

48.9%

2.1%

51.75%

47.25%

50.4%

48.9%

Harris (1509 LV)

10/29 - 11/1

48%

49%

49.5%

50.5%

-1.0%

48.75%

49.25%

50.1%

48.8%

CBS News (939 LV)

10/29 - 11/1

47%

49%

49.0%

51.0%

-2.1%

49.25%

49.75%

49.9%

48.9%

TIPP (1041 LV)

10/30 - 11/1

48%

50%

48.9%

51.1%

-2.1%

48.60%

50.30%

49.7%

49.1%

GW/Battleground (1000 LV)

10/31 - 11/1

46%

50%

47.9%

52.1%

-4.2%

49.00%

51.00%

49.5%

RCP - 31 RV POLLS

2-party

Projected

5-Poll MA

(9/26)

Date

Kerry

Bush

Other

Spread

Kerry

Bush

Diff

Kerry

Bush

Kerry

Bush

AVERAGE

7/6 - 9/26

45.03%

45.06%

3.10%

0.03%

50.00%

-0.01%

50.14%

46.77%

47.60%

50.20%

NBC News (504 RV)

7/6

49%

41%

-8%

54.4%

45.6%

8.9%

53.5%

42.5%

53.5%

42.5%

AP/Ipsos (804 RV)

7/5-7/7

45%

49%

47.9%

52.1%

-4.3%

47.3%

49.8%

50.4%

46.1%

Newsweek (1,001 RV)

7/8-7/9

47%

44%

-3%

51.6%

48.4%

3.3%

51.5%

45.5%

50.8%

45.9%

IBD/TIPP (800 RV)

7/6-7/10

47%

43%

-4%

52.2%

47.8%

4.4%

51.5%

44.5%

50.9%

45.6%

Wash Post/ABC (721 RV)

7/8-7/11

46%

50.0%

0.0%

49.0%

47.0%

50.6%

45.9%

CBS/NYT (823 RV)

7/11-7/15

45%

42%

-3%

51.7%

48.3%

3.4%

51.0%

44.0%

50.1%

46.2%

Marist (938 RV)

7/12-7/15

45%

44%

-1%

50.6%

49.4%

1.1%

51.8%

46.3%

51.0%

45.5%

IBD/TIPP (842 RV)

7/12-7/17

42%

40%

-2%

51.2%

48.8%

2.4%

52.5%

43.5%

51.2%

45.1%

Pew (1,568 RV)

7/8-7/18

46%

44%

-2%

51.1%

48.9%

2.2%

51.3%

45.8%

51.1%

45.3%

LA Times (1,529 RV)

7/17-7/21

46%

44%

-2%

51.1%

48.9%

2.2%

51.3%

45.8%

51.6%

45.1%

NBC/WSJ (813 RV)

7/19-7/21

45%

47%

48.9%

51.1%

-2.2%

49.5%

48.5%

51.3%

46.0%

Quinnipiac Univ. (1551 RV)

7/18-7/22

44%

43%

-1%

50.6%

49.4%

1.1%

50.8%

45.3%

51.1%

45.8%

Time/SRBI (1000 RV)

7/20-7/22

46%

43%

-3%

51.7%

48.3%

3.4%

50.5%

44.5%

50.7%

46.0%

IBD/TIPP (883 RV)

7/19-7/24

44%

42%

-2%

51.2%

48.8%

2.3%

52.3%

44.8%

50.9%

45.8%

ABC News/WP (909 RV)

7/22-7/25

46%

48%

48.9%

51.1%

-2.1%

48.3%

48.8%

50.3%

46.4%

Newsweek (1,010 RV)

7/29-7/30

49%

42%

-7%

53.8%

46.2%

7.7%

53.5%

43.5%

51.1%

45.4%

ARG (776 RV)

7/30-8/1

49%

45%

-4%

52.1%

47.9%

4.3%

52.0%

46.0%

51.3%

45.5%

CBS News (991 RV)

7/31-8/1

48%

43%

-5%

52.7%

47.3%

5.5%

52.5%

44.5%

51.7%

45.5%

IBD/TIPP (841 RV)

8/2 - 8/5

45%

42%

-3%

51.7%

48.3%

3.4%

51.0%

44.0%

51.5%

45.4%

AP/Ipsos (798 RV)

8/3 - 8/5

48%

45%

-3%

51.6%

48.4%

3.2%

51.0%

46.0%

52.0%

44.8%

Pew (1,166 RV)

8/5 - 8/10

47%

45%

-2%

51.1%

48.9%

2.2%

51.5%

46.5%

51.6%

45.4%

CBS News (835 RV)

8/15 - 8/18

46%

45%

-1%

50.5%

49.5%

1.1%

52.0%

47.0%

51.6%

45.6%

IBD/TIPP (884 RV)

8/17 - 8/23

43%

50.0%

0.0%

49.8%

45.3%

51.1%

45.8%

LA Times (1,352 RV)

8/21 - 8/24

44%

47%

48.4%

51.6%

-3.3%

48.5%

50.6%

46.7%

NBC News/WSJ (806 RV)

8/23 - 8/25

45%

47%

48.9%

51.1%

-2.2%

48.8%

48.3%

50.1%

47.1%

Newsweek (1,008 RV)

9/2 - 9/3

41%

52%

11%

44.1%

55.9%

-11.8%

44.0%

53.0%

48.6%

48.4%

CBS News (909 RV)

9/6 - 9/8

42%

49%

46.2%

53.8%

-7.7%

48.0%

51.0%

47.8%

49.2%

Newsweek (1003 RV)

9/9 - 9/10

43%

49%

46.7%

53.3%

-6.5%

47.5%

50.5%

47.4%

50.3%

CBS News (1048 RV)

9/12 - 9/16

41%

50%

45.1%

54.9%

-9.9%

45.5%

51.5%

46.8%

50.9%

Pew Research (989 RV)

9/17 - 9/21

42%

45%

48.3%

51.7%

-3.4%

49.5%

47.5%

46.9%

50.7%

Pew Research (948 RV)

9/22 - 9/26

40%

48%

45.5%

54.5%

-9.1%

47.5%

50.5%

47.6%

50.2%