2004 Pre-election Registered (RV) and Likely Voter (LV) Polls

 

TruthIsAll

 

 

Some still claim that the pre-election polls favored Bush; the data is provided in the tables below.

They claim that Bush was leading the national polls, but the data indicates a virtual tie.

The unweighted state poll average favored Bush, but Kerry led the aggregate weighted average.

 

The Election Model matched the pre-election LV polls after adjusting for new and undecided voters.

Kerry led the pre-election polls in August, fell behind in September and rebounded in October.

When undecided voters were allocated, Kerry was projected to win.

RV polls include new registered voters, unlike LV polls.

The majority of new voters (57%) were Democrats.

 

Kerry led the final Election Model state and national projections:

The state aggregate projection exactly matched the 5-poll national average.

 

State aggregate:

Kerry 51.3 - 47.7; 51.8 - 48.2 (2-party)

 

National average:

5-poll: 51.3 - 47.7; 51.8 - 48.2 (2-party)

 

National pre-election polls, after adjusting for voter turnout and undecided voters, reflect the True Vote.

The final 18 Election Model national polls and 133 polls from Real Clear Politics (RCP) are shown below.

 

The final 15 RCP polls sampled likely (LV) voters.

Earlier RCP polls were a mix of likely voters and registered (RV) voters.

 

The 2004 RV vs. LV poll trend indicates that the average Kerry RV share was higher than his LV share.

From 7/6 to 9/26, the Kerry led the RV poll average by 50.1 - 46.8

Bush led the LV poll average by 49.2 - 49.0.

 

From 10/20 to Election Day, Kerry led the 9-poll RV average by 46.9 - 46.2.

Kerry barely led the 9-poll LV average by 47.7- 47.6.

 

The final RCP 15-poll national average had Bush leading by 49 - 47.

The final RCP 5-poll national average had an exact tie 49.5 - 49.5.

 

The final Gallup poll had Bush leading by 49 - 47 before allocation of undecided voters.

Gallup allocated 90% to Kerry; the final adjusted poll was tied at 49.

The final 15 LV polls, after undecided voter allocation, was also tied at 49.

 

We can assume that Kerry and Bush split the vote of 100m returning (LV) voters.

Therefore, the race was tied at 49.5m with 1m going to other 3rd party candidates.

 

 

Real Clear Politics

133 National Polls

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2-party

 

 

 

Projected

 

5-Poll MA

 

 

RCP

Date

Kerry

Bush

Other

Spread

Kerry

Bush

Diff

 

Kerry

Bush

Kerry

Bush

 

133 Poll average

7/6 - 11/1

45.5%

47.4%

2.1%

2.0%

49.0%

51.0%

2.1%

 

49.3%

48.6%

49.5%

49.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

102 LV

7/6 - 11/1

45.6%

48.1%

1.8%

2.5%

48.7%

51.3%

-2.6%

 

49.0%

49.2%

49.0%

49.1%

 

31 RV

7/6 - 9/26

45.0%

45.1%

3.1%

0.0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

 

50.1%

46.8%

50.4%

46.4%

 

Diff

 

-0.6%

-3.0%

1.3%

-2.4%

1.3%

-1.3%

2.6%

 

1.1%

-2.4%

1.4%

-2.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Final 15 (all LV)

10/22-11/01

47.00%

49.01%

0.94%

2.01%

48.95%

51.05%

2.09%

 

49.29%

49.77%

49.47%

49.51%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Election Model

Final 18 Polls

(9RV, 9LV)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sample

 

Final

Poll

2-party projected

 

 

75% UVA

Projected

5-Poll Moving Average

Election Model

Date

Size

Poll

Kerry

Bush

Kerry

Bush

Diff

 

Kerry

Bush

Kerry

Bush

Diff

18 National Polls

Average

1720

Type

47.28

46.89

51.65

48.35

3.31

 

50.90

48.10

51.25

47.75

3.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Zogby

2-Nov

1200

LV

47

48

50.75

49.25

1.50

 

50.00

49.00

51.25

47.75

3.50

Harris

2-Nov

5508

LV

50

47

52.25

47.75

4.50

 

51.50

47.50

51.35

47.65

3.70

CBS

1-Nov

1125

RV

46

47

51.25

48.75

2.50

 

50.50

48.50

51.25

47.75

3.50

TIPP

1-Nov

1284

LV

44

45

52.25

47.75

4.50

 

51.50

47.50

51.15

47.85

3.30

Econ

1-Nov

2903

RV

49

45

53.50

46.50

7.00

 

52.75

46.25

51.20

47.80

3.40

 

Marist

1-Nov

1166

LV

49

48

51.25

48.75

2.50

 

50.50

48.50

50.85

48.15

2.70

ABC

31-Oct

3511

RV

48

47

51.75

48.25

3.50

 

51.00

48.00

51.25

47.75

3.50

NBC

31-Oct

1014

LV

47

48

50.75

49.25

1.50

 

50.00

49.00

51.45

47.55

3.90

Gallup

31-Oct

1866

RV

48

46

52.50

47.50

5.00

 

51.75

47.25

51.55

47.45

4.10

Dem Corp

31-Oct

1018

LV

48

47

51.75

48.25

3.50

 

51.00

48.00

51.10

47.90

3.20

 

FOX

31-Oct

1400

RV

48

45

53.25

46.75

6.50

 

52.50

46.50

51.05

47.95

3.10

Pew

30-Oct

2408

RV

46

45

52.75

47.25

5.50

 

52.00

47.00

50.75

48.25

2.50

ARG

30-Oct

1258

LV

49

48

51.25

48.75

2.50

 

50.50

48.50

49.85

49.15

0.70

Nwk

29-Oct

1005

RV

45

48

50.25

49.75

0.50

 

49.50

49.50

50.15

48.85

1.30

ICR

26-Oct

817

RV

44

46

51.50

48.50

3.00

 

50.75

48.25

na

na

na

 

LAT

24-Oct

1698

RV

48

47

51.75

48.25

3.50

 

51.00

48.00

na

na

na

Time

21-Oct

803

LV

46

51

48.25

51.75

(3.50)

 

47.50

51.50

na

na

na

AP

20-Oct

976

LV

49

46

52.75

47.25

5.50

 

52.00

47.00

na

na

na

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RCP

Final 15 LV

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Poll

 

 

 

2-party

Projected

 

 

Projected

 

5-poll MA

 

 

 

Date

Kerry

Bush

Other

Spread

Kerry

Bush

Diff

 

Kerry

Bush

Kerry

Bush

 

Average

10/22-11/01

47.0%

49.0%

0.9%

2.0%

49.0%

51.0%

2.1%

 

49.3%

49.8%

49.5%

49.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ICR (741)

10/22 - 10/26

45%

48%

2%

3%

48.4%

51.6%

3.2%

 

48.8%

49.3%

48.6%

50.0%

 

GW/Battleground (1000)

10/25 - 10/28

46%

51%

0%

5%

47.4%

52.6%

5.2%

 

48.3%

51.8%

48.9%

50.1%

 

Newsweek (882)

10/27 - 10/29

44%

50%

1%

6%

46.8%

53.2%

6.4%

 

47.8%

51.3%

48.5%

50.5%

 

Pew Research (1925)

10/27 - 10/30

48%

51%

1%

3%

48.5%

51.5%

3.0%

 

48.0%

51.0%

48.1%

51.0%

 

CBS/NY Times (643)

10/28 - 10/30

46%

49%

1%

3%

48.4%

51.6%

3.2%

 

49.0%

50.0%

48.4%

50.7%

 

 

ARG (1258)

10/28 - 10/30

48%

48%

1%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

 

50.3%

48.8%

48.7%

50.6%

 

ABC/Wash Post (2904)**

10/28 - 10/31

48%

49%

0%

1%

49.5%

50.5%

1.0%

 

50.3%

49.8%

49.1%

50.2%

 

NBC/WSJ (1014)

10/29 - 10/31

47%

48%

1%

1%

49.5%

50.5%

1.1%

 

50.0%

49.0%

49.5%

49.7%

 

CNN/USA/Gallup(1573)*

10/29 - 10/31

49%

49%

1%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

 

49.8%

49.3%

49.9%

49.4%

 

Reuters/Zogby (1208)

10/29 - 10/31

47%

48%

1%

1%

49.5%

50.5%

1.1%

 

50.0%

49.0%

50.1%

49.2%

 

 

FOX News (1200)

10/30 - 10/31

48%

46%

1%

-2%

51.1%

48.9%

-2.1%

 

51.8%

47.3%

50.4%

48.9%

 

Harris (1509(

10/29 - 11/1

48%

49%

2%

1%

49.5%

50.5%

1.0%

 

48.8%

49.3%

50.1%

48.8%

 

CBS News (939)

10/29 - 11/1

47%

49%

1%

2%

49.0%

51.0%

2.1%

 

49.3%

49.8%

49.9%

48.9%

 

TIPP (1041 LV

10/30 - 11/1

48%

50%

1%

2%

48.9%

51.1%

2.1%

 

48.6%

50.3%

49.7%

49.1%

 

GW/Battleground (1000)

10/31 - 11/1

46%

50%

0%

4%

47.9%

52.1%

4.2%

 

49.0%

51.0%

49.5%

49.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RCP

Monthly Average

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Poll

 

 

 

2-party

Projected

 

 

Projected

 

5-poll MA

 

 

 

Date

Kerry

Bush

Other

Spread

Kerry

Bush

Diff

 

Kerry

Bush

Kerry

Bush

 

 

Average

45.9%

47.3%

2.1%

1.4%

49.3%

50.7%

0.7%

 

49.4%

48.5%

49.6%

48.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

July

46.1%

44.1%

3.4%

-2.0%

51.1%

48.9%

2.2%

 

50.9%

45.7%

50.9%

45.7%

 

 

Aug

46.4%

45.3%

2.8%

-1.1%

50.6%

49.4%

1.3%

 

50.6%

46.6%

50.7%

46.5%

 

 

Sep

43.4%

49.2%

2.0%

5.8%

46.9%

53.1%

-4.6%

 

47.5%

50.5%

47.6%

50.3%

 

 

Oct

46.2%

48.4%

1.4%

2.2%

48.8%

51.2%

2.4%

 

49.2%

49.4%

49.1%

49.6%

 

 

Nov

47.3%

49.5%

1.0%

2.3%

48.8%

51.2%

2.4%

 

48.9%

50.1%

49.8%

49.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RCP

133 RV+LV

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Poll

 

 

 

2-party

Projected

 

 

Projected

 

5-poll MA

 

 

 

Date

Kerry

Bush

Other

Spread

Kerry

Bush

Diff

Type

Kerry

Bush

Kerry

Bush

 

Average

7/8-11/1

45.5%

47.4%

2.1%

2.0%

49.0%

51.0%

2.1%

 

49.3%

48.6%

49.47%

49.51%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NBC News (504 RV)

7/6

49%

41%

4%

-8%

54.4%

45.6%

8.9%

RV

53.5%

42.5%

53.5%

42.5%

 

AP/Ipsos (804 RV)

7/5-7/7

45%

49%

3%

4%

47.9%

52.1%

-4.3%

RV

47.3%

49.8%

50.4%

46.1%

 

Zogby (1008 LV)

7/6-7/7

47%

45%

2%

-2%

51.1%

48.9%

2.2%

LV

51.5%

46.5%

50.8%

46.3%

 

Time (774 LV)

7/6-7/8

47%

45%

4%

-2%

51.1%

48.9%

2.2%

LV

50.0%

46.0%

50.6%

46.2%

 

Newsweek (1,001 RV)

7/8-7/9

47%

44%

3%

-3%

51.6%

48.4%

3.3%

RV

51.5%

45.5%

50.8%

46.1%

 

IBD/TIPP (800 RV)

7/6-7/10

47%

43%

4%

-4%

52.2%

47.8%

4.4%

RV

51.5%

44.5%

50.4%

46.5%

 

CNN/Gallup/USAT (706 LV)

7/8-7/11

50%

45%

2%

-5%

52.6%

47.4%

5.3%

LV

52.3%

45.8%

51.4%

45.7%

 

Wash Post/ABC (721 RV)

7/8-7/11

46%

46%

4%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

RV

49.0%

47.0%

50.9%

45.8%

 

Dem Corps** (1,010 LV)

7/10-7/13

48%

45%

4%

-3%

51.6%

48.4%

3.2%

LV

50.3%

45.8%

50.9%

45.7%

 

CBS/NYT (823 RV)

7/11-7/15

45%

42%

5%

-3%

51.7%

48.3%

3.4%

RV

51.0%

44.0%

50.8%

45.4%

 

Marist (938 RV)

7/12-7/15

45%

44%

2%

-1%

50.6%

49.4%

1.1%

RV

51.8%

46.3%

50.9%

45.8%

 

IBD/TIPP (842 RV)

7/12-7/17

42%

40%

4%

-2%

51.2%

48.8%

2.4%

RV

52.5%

43.5%

50.9%

45.3%

 

Pew (1,568 RV)

7/8-7/18

46%

44%

3%

-2%

51.1%

48.9%

2.2%

RV

51.3%

45.8%

51.4%

45.1%

 

LA Times (1,529 RV)

7/17-7/21

46%

44%

3%

-2%

51.1%

48.9%

2.2%

RV

51.3%

45.8%

51.6%

45.1%

 

CNN/Gallup/USAT (709 LV)

7/19-7/21

47%

46%

4%

-1%

50.5%

49.5%

1.1%

LV

49.3%

46.8%

51.2%

45.6%

 

NBC/WSJ (813 RV)

7/19-7/21

45%

47%

2%

2%

48.9%

51.1%

-2.2%

RV

49.5%

48.5%

50.8%

46.1%

 

Fox News (767 LV)

7/20-7/21

44%

43%

3%

-1%

50.6%

49.4%

1.1%

LV

51.5%

45.5%

50.6%

46.5%

 

Quinnipiac Univ. (1551 RV)

7/18-7/22

44%

43%

4%

-1%

50.6%

49.4%

1.1%

RV

50.8%

45.3%

50.5%

46.4%

 

Time/SRBI (1000 RV)

7/20-7/22

46%

43%

5%

-3%

51.7%

48.3%

3.4%

RV

50.5%

44.5%

50.3%

46.1%

 

IBD/TIPP (883 RV)

7/19-7/24

44%

42%

3%

-2%

51.2%

48.8%

2.3%

RV

52.3%

44.8%

50.9%

45.7%

 

ABC News/WP (909 RV)

7/22-7/25

46%

48%

3%

2%

48.9%

51.1%

-2.1%

RV

48.3%

48.8%

50.7%

45.8%

 

Newsweek (1,010 RV)

7/29-7/30

49%

42%

3%

-7%

53.8%

46.2%

7.7%

RV

53.5%

43.5%

51.1%

45.4%

 

ARG (776 RV)

7/30-8/1

49%

45%

2%

-4%

52.1%

47.9%

4.3%

RV

52.0%

46.0%

51.3%

45.5%

 

ABC News/WP (LV)

7/30-8/1

49%

47%

2%

-2%

51.0%

49.0%

2.1%

LV

50.5%

47.5%

51.3%

46.1%

 

CNN/Gallup/USAT (LV)

7/30-8/1

45%

51%

2%

6%

46.9%

53.1%

-6.3%

LV

46.5%

51.5%

50.2%

47.5%

 

CBS News (991 RV)

7/31-8/1

48%

43%

3%

-5%

52.7%

47.3%

5.5%

RV

52.5%

44.5%

51.0%

46.6%

 

Marist (573 LV)

7/30-8/2

47%

47%

1%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

LV

50.8%

48.3%

50.5%

47.6%

 

Fox News (775 LV)

8/3 - 8/4

47%

43%

2%

-4%

52.2%

47.8%

4.4%

LV

53.0%

45.0%

50.7%

47.4%

 

IBD/TIPP (841 RV)

8/2 - 8/5

45%

42%

5%

-3%

51.7%

48.3%

3.4%

RV

51.0%

44.0%

50.8%

46.7%

 

Dem Corps**** (1,013 LV)

8/2 - 8/5

49%

44%

4%

-5%

52.7%

47.3%

5.4%

LV

51.3%

44.8%

51.7%

45.3%

 

AP/Ipsos (798 RV)

8/3 - 8/5

48%

45%

3%

-3%

51.6%

48.4%

3.2%

RV

51.0%

46.0%

51.4%

45.6%

 

Time/SRBI (758 LV)

8/3 - 8/5

48%

43%

4%

-5%

52.7%

47.3%

5.5%

LV

51.8%

44.3%

51.6%

44.8%

 

Pew (1,166 RV)

8/5 - 8/10

47%

45%

2%

-2%

51.1%

48.9%

2.2%

RV

51.5%

46.5%

51.3%

45.1%

 

Gallup (729 LV)

8/9 - 8/11

46%

48%

3%

2%

48.9%

51.1%

-2.1%

LV

48.3%

48.8%

50.8%

46.1%

 

Zogby (1,011 LV)

8/12 - 8/14

47%

43%

2%

-4%

52.2%

47.8%

4.4%

LV

53.0%

45.0%

51.1%

46.1%

 

Harris ( LV from 1012 adults)

8/10 - 8/15

47%

47%

3%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

LV

49.3%

47.8%

50.8%

46.5%

 

CBS News (835 RV)

8/15 - 8/18

46%

45%

1%

-1%

50.5%

49.5%

1.1%

RV

52.0%

47.0%

50.8%

47.0%

 

Battleground Poll (1,000 LV)

8/15 - 8/17

44%

43%

1%

-1%

50.6%

49.4%

1.1%

LV

53.0%

46.0%

51.1%

46.9%

 

IBD/TIPP (884 RV)

8/17 - 8/23

43%

43%

5%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

RV

49.8%

45.3%

51.4%

46.2%

 

LA Times (1,352 RV)

8/21 - 8/24

44%

47%

3%

3%

48.4%

51.6%

-3.3%

RV

48.5%

48.5%

50.5%

46.9%

 

NPR - POS/GQR (800 LV)

8/21 - 8/24

47%

43%

3%

-4%

52.2%

47.8%

4.4%

LV

52.3%

44.8%

51.1%

46.3%

 

NBC News/WSJ (806 RV)

8/23 - 8/25

45%

47%

3%

2%

48.9%

51.1%

-2.2%

RV

48.8%

48.3%

50.5%

46.6%

 

CNN/USAT/Gallup (709 LV)

8/23 - 8/25

46%

48%

4%

2%

48.9%

51.1%

-2.1%

LV

47.5%

48.5%

49.4%

47.1%

 

FOX News (1,000 LV)

8/24 - 8/25

44%

43%

3%

-1%

50.6%

49.4%

1.1%

LV

51.5%

45.5%

49.7%

47.1%

 

Time (835 LV)

8/24 - 8/26

44%

46%

5%

2%

48.9%

51.1%

-2.2%

LV

47.8%

47.3%

49.6%

46.9%

 

ABC News/WP (775 LV)

8/26 - 8/29

48%

48%

1%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

LV

50.3%

48.8%

49.2%

47.7%

 

ARG (800 LV)

8/30 - 9/1

47%

47%

3%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

LV

49.3%

47.8%

49.3%

47.6%

 

Zogby (1001 LV)

8/30 - 9/2

43%

46%

3%

3%

48.3%

51.7%

-3.4%

LV

49.0%

48.0%

49.6%

47.5%

 

Time (926 LV)

8/31 - 9/2

41%

52%

3%

11%

44.1%

55.9%

-11.8%

LV

44.0%

53.0%

48.1%

49.0%

 

Newsweek (1,008 RV)

9/2 - 9/3

41%

52%

3%

11%

44.1%

55.9%

-11.8%

RV

44.0%

53.0%

47.3%

50.1%

 

CNN/USAT/Gallup (778 LV)

9/3 - 9/5

45%

52%

1%

7%

46.4%

53.6%

-7.2%

LV

46.5%

52.5%

46.6%

50.9%

 

CBS News (909 RV)

9/6 - 9/8

42%

49%

1%

7%

46.2%

53.8%

-7.7%

RV

48.0%

51.0%

46.3%

51.5%

 

Pew Research (745 LV)

9/8 - 9/10

38%

54%

2%

16%

41.3%

58.7%

-17.4%

LV

42.5%

55.5%

45.0%

53.0%

 

ABC News/Wash Post (LV)

9/6 - 9/8

43%

52%

2%

9%

45.3%

54.7%

-9.5%

LV

45.3%

52.8%

45.3%

53.0%

 

FOX/Opin. Dyn. (1000 LV)

9/7 - 9/8

43%

47%

3%

4%

47.8%

52.2%

-4.4%

LV

48.3%

48.8%

46.1%

52.1%

 

AP/Ipsos (899 LV)

9/7 - 9/9

46%

51%

1%

5%

47.4%

52.6%

-5.2%

LV

47.5%

51.5%

46.3%

51.9%

 

Time (857 LV)

9/7 - 9/9

41%

52%

3%

11%

44.1%

55.9%

-11.8%

LV

44.0%

53.0%

45.5%

52.3%

 

Zogby (1018 LV)

9/8 - 9/9

42%

46%

2%

4%

47.7%

52.3%

-4.5%

LV

49.5%

48.5%

46.9%

50.9%

 

IBD/TIPP (674 LV)

9/7 - 9/12

46%

46%

3%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

LV

49.8%

47.3%

47.8%

49.8%

 

Newsweek (1003 RV)

9/9 - 9/10

43%

49%

2%

6%

46.7%

53.3%

-6.5%

RV

47.5%

50.5%

47.7%

50.2%

 

Harris (867 LV)

9/9 - 9/13

48%

47%

2%

-1%

50.5%

49.5%

1.1%

LV

50.3%

47.8%

48.2%

49.4%

 

Pew Research (725 LV)

9/11 - 9/14

46%

47%

1%

1%

49.5%

50.5%

-1.1%

LV

50.5%

48.5%

49.5%

48.5%

 

Battleground (1000 LV)

9/12 - 9/15

45%

49%

1%

4%

47.9%

52.1%

-4.3%

LV

48.8%

50.3%

49.4%

48.9%

 

CNN/USAT/Gallup (767 LV)

9/13 - 9/15

40%

54%

3%

14%

42.6%

57.4%

-14.9%

LV

42.3%

54.8%

47.9%

50.4%

 

CBS News (1048 RV)

9/12 - 9/16

41%

50%

3%

9%

45.1%

54.9%

-9.9%

RV

45.5%

51.5%

47.5%

50.6%

 

ARG (LV)

9/7 - 9/21

46%

47%

1%

1%

49.5%

50.5%

-1.1%

LV

50.5%

48.5%

47.5%

50.7%

 

IBD/TIPP (650 LV)

9/14 - 9/18

42%

45%

2%

3%

48.3%

51.7%

-3.4%

LV

50.3%

47.8%

47.5%

50.6%

 

Zogby (1066 LV)

9/17 - 9/19

43%

46%

1%

3%

48.3%

51.7%

-3.4%

LV

50.5%

48.5%

47.8%

50.2%

 

NBC News/WSJ (787 LV)

9/17 - 9/19

46%

50%

1%

4%

47.9%

52.1%

-4.2%

LV

48.3%

50.8%

49.0%

49.4%

 

Pew Research (989 RV)

9/17 - 9/21

42%

45%

3%

3%

48.3%

51.7%

-3.4%

RV

49.5%

47.5%

49.8%

48.6%

 

AP/Ipsos (931 LV)

9/20 - 9/22

45%

52%

1%

7%

46.4%

53.6%

-7.2%

LV

46.5%

52.5%

49.0%

49.4%

 

CBS News (931 LV)

9/20 - 9/22

42%

51%

2%

9%

45.2%

54.8%

-9.7%

LV

45.8%

52.3%

48.1%

50.3%

 

Marist (630 LV)

9/20 - 9/22

44%

50%

2%

6%

46.8%

53.2%

-6.4%

LV

47.0%

51.0%

47.4%

50.8%

 

Battleground (1000 LV)

9/20 - 9/23

45%

50%

0%

5%

47.4%

52.6%

-5.3%

LV

48.8%

51.3%

47.5%

50.9%

 

FOX News (1000 LV)

9/21 - 9/22

42%

46%

1%

4%

47.7%

52.3%

-4.5%

LV

50.3%

48.8%

47.7%

51.2%

 

Time (877 LV)

9/21 - 9/23

42%

48%

5%

6%

46.7%

53.3%

-6.7%

LV

45.8%

49.3%

47.5%

50.5%

 

Pew Research (948 RV)

9/22 - 9/26

40%

48%

2%

8%

45.5%

54.5%

-9.1%

RV

47.5%

50.5%

47.9%

50.2%

 

ABC News/WP (810 LV)

9/23 - 9/26

45%

51%

1%

6%

46.9%

53.1%

6.3%

LV

47.3%

51.8%

47.9%

50.3%

 

IBD/TIPP (649 LV)

9/22 - 9/27

45%

45%

2%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

LV

51.0%

47.0%

48.4%

49.5%

 

CNN/USAT/Gallup (758 LV)

9/24 - 9/26

44%

52%

3%

8%

45.8%

54.2%

8.3%

LV

44.8%

52.3%

47.3%

50.2%

 

LA Times (1100 LV)

9/25 - 9/28

45%

51%

2%

6%

46.9%

53.1%

6.3%

LV

46.5%

51.5%

47.4%

50.6%

 

Battleground (1000 LV)

9/27 - 9/30

44%

51%

1%

7%

46.3%

53.7%

7.4%

LV

47.0%

52.0%

47.3%

50.9%

 

SHU Poll Inst. (1003 LV)

9/27 - 10/2

43%

48%

2%

5%

47.3%

52.7%

5.5%

LV

48.3%

49.8%

47.5%

50.5%

 

Newsweek (1013 RV)

9/30 - 10/2

47%

45%

2%

-2%

51.1%

48.9%

-2.2%

LV

51.5%

46.5%

47.6%

50.4%

 

CNN/USAT/Gallup (772 LV)

10/1 - 10/3

49%

49%

1%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

LV

49.8%

49.3%

48.6%

49.8%

 

Pew Research (801 LV)

10/1 - 10/3

44%

49%

2%

5%

47.3%

52.7%

5.4%

LV

47.8%

50.3%

48.9%

49.6%

 

Zogby (1036 LV)

10/1 - 10/3

43%

46%

2%

3%

48.3%

51.7%

3.4%

LV

49.8%

48.3%

49.4%

48.8%

 

CBS News/NYT (561 LV)

10/1 - 10/3

47%

47%

1%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

LV

50.8%

48.3%

49.9%

48.5%

 

ABC News/WP (1169 LV)

10/1 - 10/3

46%

51%

1%

5%

47.4%

52.6%

5.2%

LV

47.5%

51.5%

49.1%

49.5%

 

ARG (800 LV)

10/2 - 10/4

46%

46%

2%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

LV

50.5%

47.5%

49.3%

49.2%

 

ICR (762 LV)

10/1 - 10/5

45%

51%

2%

6%

46.9%

53.1%

6.3%

LV

46.5%

51.5%

49.0%

49.4%

 

Fox News (1000 LV)

10/3 - 10/4

45%

47%

1%

2%

48.9%

51.1%

2.2%

LV

50.3%

48.8%

49.1%

49.5%

 

Marist (642 LV)

10/4 - 10/5

46%

49%

1%

3%

48.4%

51.6%

3.2%

LV

49.0%

50.0%

48.8%

49.9%

 

AP/Ipsos (944 LV)

10/4 - 10/6

50%

46%

2%

-4%

52.1%

47.9%

-4.2%

LV

51.5%

46.5%

49.6%

48.9%

 

GW/Battleground (1250 LV)

10/3 - 10/7

46%

49%

0%

3%

48.4%

51.6%

3.2%

LV

49.8%

50.3%

49.4%

49.4%

 

Time (886 LV w/leaners)

10/6 - 10/7

45%

46%

4%

1%

49.5%

50.5%

1.1%

LV

48.8%

47.3%

49.9%

48.6%

 

CNN/USAT/Gallup (793 LV)

10/9 - 10/10

49%

48%

1%

-1%

50.5%

49.5%

-1.0%

LV

50.5%

48.5%

49.9%

48.5%

 

ICR (763 LV)

10/9 - 10/11

43%

48%

2%

5%

47.3%

52.7%

5.5%

LV

48.3%

49.8%

49.8%

48.5%

 

CBS News (760 LV)

10/9 - 10/11

45%

48%

2%

3%

48.4%

51.6%

3.2%

LV

48.8%

49.3%

49.2%

49.0%

 

Zogby (1223 LV)

10/9 - 10/11

45%

45%

2%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

LV

51.0%

47.0%

49.5%

48.4%

 

ABC/Wash Post* (1248 LV)

10/11 - 10/13

48%

48%

1%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

LV

50.3%

48.8%

49.8%

48.7%

 

GW/Battleground (1000 LV)

10/11 - 10/14

46%

49%

0%

3%

48.4%

51.6%

3.2%

LV

49.8%

50.3%

49.6%

49.0%

 

Newsweek (880 LV)

10/14 - 10/15

44%

50%

1%

6%

46.8%

53.2%

6.4%

LV

47.8%

51.3%

49.5%

49.3%

 

Time (865 LV w/leaners)

10/14 - 10/15

47%

48%

3%

1%

49.5%

50.5%

1.1%

LV

48.5%

48.5%

49.5%

49.2%

 

CNN/USAT/Gallup (788 LV)

10/14 - 10/16

44%

52%

1%

8%

45.8%

54.2%

8.3%

LV

46.3%

52.8%

48.5%

50.3%

 

CBS/NY Times (678 LV)

10/14 - 10/17

45%

47%

2%

2%

48.9%

51.1%

2.2%

LV

49.5%

48.5%

48.4%

50.3%

 

Harris (820 LV)***

10/14 - 10/17

44%

50%

1%

6%

47.1%

52.9%

5.9%

LV

48.1%

50.9%

48.0%

50.4%

 

NBC/WSJ (LV w/leaners)

10/16 - 10/18

48%

48%

1%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

LV

50.3%

48.8%

48.5%

49.9%

 

ABC/Wash Post* (1237 LV)

10/16 - 10/18

46%

51%

1%

5%

47.4%

52.6%

5.2%

LV

47.5%

51.5%

48.3%

50.5%

 

Pew Research (1070 LV)

10/15 - 10/19

47%

47%

1%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

LV

50.8%

48.3%

49.2%

49.6%

 

FOX News (1000 LV)

10/17 - 10/18

42%

49%

2%

7%

46.2%

53.8%

7.7%

LV

47.3%

50.8%

48.8%

50.0%

 

Marist (772 LV w/leaners)

10/17 - 10/19

48%

49%

1%

1%

49.5%

50.5%

1.0%

LV

49.5%

49.5%

49.1%

49.8%

 

AP-Ipsos (976 LV)

10/18 - 10/20

49%

46%

2%

-3%

51.6%

48.4%

-3.2%

LV

51.3%

46.8%

49.3%

49.4%

 

GW/Battleground (1000 LV)

10/18 - 10/21

45%

49%

1%

4%

47.9%

52.1%

4.3%

LV

48.8%

50.3%

49.5%

49.1%

 

Time (803 LV)

10/19 - 10/21

46%

51%

2%

5%

47.4%

52.6%

5.2%

LV

46.8%

51.3%

48.7%

49.7%

 

Newsweek (880 LV)

10/21 - 10/22

46%

48%

1%

2%

48.9%

51.1%

2.1%

LV

49.8%

49.3%

49.2%

49.4%

 

Los Angeles Times (881 LV)

10/21 - 10/24

48%

48%

1%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

LV

50.3%

48.8%

49.4%

49.3%

 

CNN/USAT/Gallup (1195 LV)

10/22 - 10/24

46%

51%

1%

5%

47.4%

52.6%

5.2%

LV

47.5%

51.5%

48.6%

50.2%

 

ICR (741 LV)

10/22 - 10/26

45%

48%

2%

3%

48.4%

51.6%

3.2%

LV

48.75%

49.25%

48.60%

50.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GW/Battleground (1000 LV)

10/25 - 10/28

46%

51%

0%

5%

47.4%

52.6%

5.2%

LV

48.25%

51.75%

48.90%

50.10%

 

Newsweek (882 LV)

10/27 - 10/29

44%

50%

1%

6%

46.8%

53.2%

6.4%

LV

47.75%

51.25%

48.50%

50.50%

 

Pew Research (1925 LV)

10/27 - 10/30

48%

51%

1%

3%

48.5%

51.5%

3.0%

LV

48.00%

51.00%

48.05%

50.95%

 

CBS/NY Times (643 LV)

10/28 - 10/30

46%

49%

1%

3%

48.4%

51.6%

3.2%

LV

49.00%

50.00%

48.35%

50.65%

 

ARG (1258 LV)

10/28 - 10/30

48%

48%

1%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

LV

50.25%

48.75%

48.65%

50.55%

 

ABC/Wash Post (2904 LV)**

10/28 - 10/31

48%

49%

0%

1%

49.5%

50.5%

1.0%

LV

50.25%

49.75%

49.05%

50.15%

 

NBC/WSJ (1014 LV)

10/29 - 10/31

47%

48%

1%

1%

49.5%

50.5%

1.1%

LV

50.00%

49.00%

49.50%

49.70%

 

CNN/USA/Gallup(1573 LV)*

10/29 - 10/31

49%

49%

1%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

LV

49.75%

49.25%

49.85%

49.35%

 

Reuters/Zogby (1208 LV)

10/29 - 10/31

47%

48%

1%

1%

49.5%

50.5%

1.1%

LV

50.00%

49.00%

50.05%

49.15%

 

FOX News (1200 LV)

10/30 - 10/31

48%

46%

1%

-2%

51.1%

48.9%

-2.1%

LV

51.75%

47.25%

50.35%

48.85%

 

Harris (1509 LV)

10/29 - 11/1

48%

49%

2%

1%

49.5%

50.5%

1.0%

LV

48.75%

49.25%

50.05%

48.75%

 

CBS News (939 LV)

10/29 - 11/1

47%

49%

1%

2%

49.0%

51.0%

2.1%

LV

49.25%

49.75%

49.90%

48.90%

 

TIPP (1041 LV)

10/30 - 11/1

48%

50%

1%

2%

48.9%

51.1%

2.1%

LV

48.60%

50.30%

49.67%

49.11%

 

GW/Battleground (1000 LV)

10/31 - 11/1

46%

50%

0%

4%

47.9%

52.1%

4.2%

LV

49.00%

51.00%

49.47%

49.51%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RCP

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

102 LV

 

 

 

 

 

2-party

Projected

 

 

Projected

 

5-Poll MA

 

 

 

Date

Kerry

Bush

Other

Spread

Kerry

Bush

Diff

 

Kerry

Bush

Kerry

Bush

 

AVERAGE

7/6 - 9/26

45.62%

48.07%

1.80%

2.46%

48.70%

51.30%

-2.61%

 

48.99%

49.20%

49.04%

49.12%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Zogby (1008 LV)

7/6-7/7

47%

45%

2%

-2%

51.1%

48.9%

2.2%

 

51.5%

46.5%

51.5%

46.5%

 

Time (774 LV)

7/6-7/8

47%

45%

4%

-2%

51.1%

48.9%

2.2%

 

50.0%

46.0%

50.8%

46.3%

 

CNN/Gallup/USAT (706 LV)

7/8-7/11

50%

45%

2%

-5%

52.6%

47.4%

5.3%

 

52.3%

45.8%

51.3%

46.1%

 

Dem Corps** (1,010 LV)

7/10-7/13

48%

45%

4%

-3%

51.6%

48.4%

3.2%

 

50.3%

45.8%

51.0%

46.0%

 

CNN/Gallup/USAT (709 LV)

7/19-7/21

47%

46%

4%

-1%

50.5%

49.5%

1.1%

 

49.3%

46.8%

50.7%

46.2%

 

Fox News (767 LV)

7/20-7/21

44%

43%

3%

-1%

50.6%

49.4%

1.1%

 

51.5%

45.5%

50.7%

46.0%

 

ABC News/WP (LV)

7/30-8/1

49%

47%

2%

-2%

51.0%

49.0%

2.1%

 

50.5%

47.5%

50.8%

46.3%

 

CNN/Gallup/USAT (LV)

7/30-8/1

45%

51%

2%

6%

46.9%

53.1%

-6.3%

 

46.5%

51.5%

49.6%

47.4%

 

Marist (573 LV)

7/30-8/2

47%

47%

1%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

 

50.8%

48.3%

49.7%

47.9%

 

Fox News (775 LV)

8/3 - 8/4

47%

43%

2%

-4%

52.2%

47.8%

4.4%

 

53.0%

45.0%

50.5%

47.6%

 

Dem Corps**** (1,013 LV)

8/2 - 8/5

49%

44%

4%

-5%

52.7%

47.3%

5.4%

 

51.3%

44.8%

50.4%

47.4%

 

Time/SRBI (758 LV)

8/3 - 8/5

48%

43%

4%

-5%

52.7%

47.3%

5.5%

 

51.8%

44.3%

50.7%

46.8%

 

Gallup (729 LV)

8/9 - 8/11

46%

48%

3%

2%

48.9%

51.1%

-2.1%

 

48.3%

48.8%

51.0%

46.2%

 

Zogby (1,011 LV)

8/12 - 8/14

47%

43%

2%

-4%

52.2%

47.8%

4.4%

 

53.0%

45.0%

51.5%

45.6%

 

Harris ( LV from 1012 adults)

8/10 - 8/15

47%

47%

3%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

 

49.3%

47.8%

50.7%

46.1%

 

Battleground Poll (1,000 LV)

8/15 - 8/17

44%

43%

1%

-1%

50.6%

49.4%

1.1%

 

53.0%

46.0%

51.1%

46.4%

 

NPR - POS/GQR (800 LV)

8/21 - 8/24

47%

43%

3%

-4%

52.2%

47.8%

4.4%

 

52.3%

44.8%

51.2%

46.5%

 

CNN/USAT/Gallup (709 LV)

8/23 - 8/25

46%

48%

4%

2%

48.9%

51.1%

-2.1%

 

47.5%

48.5%

51.0%

46.4%

 

FOX News (1,000 LV)

8/24 - 8/25

44%

43%

3%

-1%

50.6%

49.4%

1.1%

 

51.5%

45.5%

50.7%

46.5%

 

Time (835 LV)

8/24 - 8/26

44%

46%

5%

2%

48.9%

51.1%

-2.2%

 

47.8%

47.3%

50.4%

46.4%

 

ABC News/WP (775 LV)

8/26 - 8/29

48%

48%

1%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

 

50.3%

48.8%

49.9%

47.0%

 

ARG (800 LV)

8/30 - 9/1

47%

47%

3%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

 

49.3%

47.8%

49.3%

47.6%

 

Zogby (1001 LV)

8/30 - 9/2

43%

46%

3%

3%

48.3%

51.7%

-3.4%

 

49.0%

48.0%

49.6%

47.5%

 

Time (926 LV)

8/31 - 9/2

41%

52%

3%

11%

44.1%

55.9%

-11.8%

 

44.0%

53.0%

48.1%

49.0%

 

CNN/USAT/Gallup (778 LV)

9/3 - 9/5

45%

52%

1%

7%

46.4%

53.6%

-7.2%

 

46.5%

52.5%

47.8%

50.0%

 

Pew Research (745 LV)

9/8 - 9/10

38%

54%

2%

16%

41.3%

58.7%

-17.4%

 

42.5%

55.5%

46.3%

51.4%

 

ABC News/Wash Post (LV)

9/6 - 9/8

43%

52%

2%

9%

45.3%

54.7%

-9.5%

 

45.3%

52.8%

45.5%

52.4%

 

FOX/Opin. Dyn. (1000 LV)

9/7 - 9/8

43%

47%

3%

4%

47.8%

52.2%

-4.4%

 

48.3%

48.8%

45.3%

52.5%

 

AP/Ipsos (899 LV)

9/7 - 9/9

46%

51%

1%

5%

47.4%

52.6%

-5.2%

 

47.5%

51.5%

46.0%

52.2%

 

Time (857 LV)

9/7 - 9/9

41%

52%

3%

11%

44.1%

55.9%

-11.8%

 

44.0%

53.0%

45.5%

52.3%

 

Zogby (1018 LV)

9/8 - 9/9

42%

46%

2%

4%

47.7%

52.3%

-4.5%

 

49.5%

48.5%

46.9%

50.9%

 

IBD/TIPP (674 LV)

9/7 - 9/12

46%

46%

3%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

 

49.8%

47.3%

47.8%

49.8%

 

Harris (867 LV)

9/9 - 9/13

48%

47%

2%

-1%

50.5%

49.5%

1.1%

 

50.3%

47.8%

48.2%

49.6%

 

Pew Research (725 LV)

9/11 - 9/14

46%

47%

1%

1%

49.5%

50.5%

-1.1%

 

50.5%

48.5%

48.8%

49.0%

 

Battleground (1000 LV)

9/12 - 9/15

45%

49%

1%

4%

47.9%

52.1%

-4.3%

 

48.8%

50.3%

49.8%

48.5%

 

CNN/USAT/Gallup (767 LV)

9/13 - 9/15

40%

54%

3%

14%

42.6%

57.4%

-14.9%

 

42.3%

54.8%

48.3%

49.7%

 

ARG (LV)

9/7 - 9/21

46%

47%

1%

1%

49.5%

50.5%

-1.1%

 

50.5%

48.5%

48.5%

50.0%

 

IBD/TIPP (650 LV)

9/14 - 9/18

42%

45%

2%

3%

48.3%

51.7%

-3.4%

 

50.3%

47.8%

48.5%

50.0%

 

Zogby (1066 LV)

9/17 - 9/19

43%

46%

1%

3%

48.3%

51.7%

-3.4%

 

50.5%

48.5%

48.5%

50.0%

 

NBC News/WSJ (787 LV)

9/17 - 9/19

46%

50%

1%

4%

47.9%

52.1%

-4.2%

 

48.3%

50.8%

48.4%

50.1%

 

AP/Ipsos (931 LV)

9/20 - 9/22

45%

52%

1%

7%

46.4%

53.6%

-7.2%

 

46.5%

52.5%

49.2%

49.6%

 

CBS News (931 LV)

9/20 - 9/22

42%

51%

2%

9%

45.2%

54.8%

-9.7%

 

45.8%

52.3%

48.3%

50.4%

 

Marist (630 LV)

9/20 - 9/22

44%

50%

2%

6%

46.8%

53.2%

-6.4%

 

47.0%

51.0%

47.6%

51.0%

 

Battleground (1000 LV)

9/20 - 9/23

45%

50%

0%

5%

47.4%

52.6%

-5.3%

 

48.8%

51.3%

47.3%

51.6%

 

FOX News (1000 LV)

9/21 - 9/22

42%

46%

1%

4%

47.7%

52.3%

-4.5%

 

50.3%

48.8%

47.7%

51.2%

 

Time (877 LV)

9/21 - 9/23

42%

48%

5%

6%

46.7%

53.3%

-6.7%

 

45.8%

49.3%

47.5%

50.5%

 

ABC News/WP (810 LV)

9/23 - 9/26

45%

51%

1%

6%

46.9%

53.1%

-6.3%

 

47.3%

51.8%

47.8%

50.4%

 

IBD/TIPP (649 LV)

9/22 - 9/27

45%

45%

2%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

 

51.0%

47.0%

48.6%

49.6%

 

CNN/USAT/Gallup (758 LV)

9/24 - 9/26

44%

52%

3%

8%

45.8%

54.2%

-8.3%

 

44.8%

52.3%

47.8%

49.8%

 

LA Times (1100 LV)

9/25 - 9/28

45%

51%

2%

6%

46.9%

53.1%

-6.3%

 

46.5%

51.5%

47.1%

50.4%

 

Battleground (1000 LV)

9/27 - 9/30

44%

51%

1%

7%

46.3%

53.7%

-7.4%

 

47.0%

52.0%

47.3%

50.9%

 

SHU Poll Inst. (1003 LV)

9/27 - 10/2

43%

48%

2%

5%

47.3%

52.7%

-5.5%

 

48.3%

49.8%

47.5%

50.5%

 

Newsweek (1013 RV)

9/30 - 10/2

47%

45%

2%

-2%

51.1%

48.9%

2.2%

 

51.5%

46.5%

47.6%

50.4%

 

CNN/USAT/Gallup (772 LV)

10/1 - 10/3

49%

49%

1%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

 

49.8%

49.3%

48.6%

49.8%

 

Pew Research (801 LV)

10/1 - 10/3

44%

49%

2%

5%

47.3%

52.7%

-5.4%

 

47.8%

50.3%

48.9%

49.6%

 

Zogby (1036 LV)

10/1 - 10/3

43%

46%

2%

3%

48.3%

51.7%

-3.4%

 

49.8%

48.3%

49.4%

48.8%

 

CBS News/NYT (561 LV)

10/1 - 10/3

47%

47%

1%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

 

50.8%

48.3%

49.9%

48.5%

 

ABC News/WP (1169 LV)

10/1 - 10/3

46%

51%

1%

5%

47.4%

52.6%

-5.2%

 

47.5%

51.5%

49.1%

49.5%

 

ARG (800 LV)

10/2 - 10/4

46%

46%

2%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

 

50.5%

47.5%

49.3%

49.2%

 

ICR (762 LV)

10/1 - 10/5

45%

51%

2%

6%

46.9%

53.1%

-6.3%

 

46.5%

51.5%

49.0%

49.4%

 

Fox News (1000 LV)

10/3 - 10/4

45%

47%

1%

2%

48.9%

51.1%

-2.2%

 

50.3%

48.8%

49.1%

49.5%

 

Marist (642 LV)

10/4 - 10/5

46%

49%

1%

3%

48.4%

51.6%

-3.2%

 

49.0%

50.0%

48.8%

49.9%

 

AP/Ipsos (944 LV)

10/4 - 10/6

50%

46%

2%

-4%

52.1%

47.9%

4.2%

 

51.5%

46.5%

49.6%

48.9%

 

GW/Battleground (1250 LV)

10/3 - 10/7

46%

49%

0%

3%

48.4%

51.6%

-3.2%

 

49.8%

50.3%

49.4%

49.4%

 

Time (886 LV w/leaners)

10/6 - 10/7

45%

46%

4%

1%

49.5%

50.5%

-1.1%

 

48.8%

47.3%

49.9%

48.6%

 

CNN/USAT/Gallup (793 LV)

10/9 - 10/10

49%

48%

1%

-1%

50.5%

49.5%

1.0%

 

50.5%

48.5%

49.9%

48.5%

 

ICR (763 LV)

10/9 - 10/11

43%

48%

2%

5%

47.3%

52.7%

-5.5%

 

48.3%

49.8%

49.8%

48.5%

 

CBS News (760 LV)

10/9 - 10/11

45%

48%

2%

3%

48.4%

51.6%

-3.2%

 

48.8%

49.3%

49.2%

49.0%

 

Zogby (1223 LV)

10/9 - 10/11

45%

45%

2%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

 

51.0%

47.0%

49.5%

48.4%

 

ABC/Wash Post* (1248 LV)

10/11 - 10/13

48%

48%

1%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

 

50.3%

48.8%

49.8%

48.7%

 

GW/Battleground (1000 LV)

10/11 - 10/14

46%

49%

0%

3%

48.4%

51.6%

-3.2%

 

49.8%

50.3%

49.6%

49.0%

 

Newsweek (880 LV)

10/14 - 10/15

44%

50%

1%

6%

46.8%

53.2%

-6.4%

 

47.8%

51.3%

49.5%

49.3%

 

Time (865 LV w/leaners)

10/14 - 10/15

47%

48%

3%

1%

49.5%

50.5%

-1.1%

 

48.5%

48.5%

49.5%

49.2%

 

CNN/USAT/Gallup (788 LV)

10/14 - 10/16

44%

52%

1%

8%

45.8%

54.2%

-8.3%

 

46.3%

52.8%

48.5%

50.3%

 

CBS/NY Times (678 LV)

10/14 - 10/17

45%

47%

2%

2%

48.9%

51.1%

-2.2%

 

49.5%

48.5%

48.4%

50.3%

 

Harris (820 LV)***

10/14 - 10/17

44%

50%

1%

6%

47.1%

52.9%

-5.9%

 

48.1%

50.9%

48.0%

50.4%

 

NBC/WSJ (LV w/leaners)

10/16 - 10/18

48%

48%

1%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

 

50.3%

48.8%

48.5%

49.9%

 

ABC/Wash Post* (1237 LV)

10/16 - 10/18

46%

51%

1%

5%

47.4%

52.6%

-5.2%

 

47.5%

51.5%

48.3%

50.5%

 

Pew Research (1070 LV)

10/15 - 10/19

47%

47%

1%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

 

50.8%

48.3%

49.2%

49.6%

 

FOX News (1000 LV)

10/17 - 10/18

42%

49%

2%

7%

46.2%

53.8%

-7.7%

 

47.3%

50.8%

48.8%

50.0%

 

Marist (772 LV w/leaners)

10/17 - 10/19

48%

49%

1%

1%

49.5%

50.5%

-1.0%

 

49.5%

49.5%

49.1%

49.8%

 

AP-Ipsos (976 LV)

10/18 - 10/20

49%

46%

2%

-3%

51.6%

48.4%

3.2%

 

51.3%

46.8%

49.3%

49.4%

 

GW/Battleground (1000 LV)

10/18 - 10/21

45%

49%

1%

4%

47.9%

52.1%

-4.3%

 

48.8%

50.3%

49.5%

49.1%

 

Time (803 LV)

10/19 - 10/21

46%

51%

2%

5%

47.4%

52.6%

-5.2%

 

46.8%

51.3%

48.7%

49.7%

 

Newsweek (880 LV)

10/21 - 10/22

46%

48%

1%

2%

48.9%

51.1%

-2.1%

 

49.8%

49.3%

49.2%

49.4%

 

Los Angeles Times (881 LV)

10/21 - 10/24

48%

48%

1%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

 

50.3%

48.8%

49.4%

49.3%

 

CNN/USAT/Gallup (1195 LV)

10/22 - 10/24

46%

51%

1%

5%

47.4%

52.6%

-5.2%

 

47.5%

51.5%

48.6%

50.2%

 

ICR (741 LV)

10/22 - 10/26

45%

48%

2%

3%

48.4%

51.6%

-3.2%

 

48.75%

49.25%

48.6%

50.0%

 

GW/Battleground (1000 LV)

10/25 - 10/28

46%

51%

0%

5%

47.4%

52.6%

-5.2%

 

48.25%

51.75%

48.9%

50.1%

 

Newsweek (882 LV)

10/27 - 10/29

44%

50%

1%

6%

46.8%

53.2%

-6.4%

 

47.75%

51.25%

48.5%

50.5%

 

Pew Research (1925 LV)

10/27 - 10/30

48%

51%

1%

3%

48.5%

51.5%

-3.0%

 

48.00%

51.00%

48.1%

51.0%

 

CBS/NY Times (643 LV)

10/28 - 10/30

46%

49%

1%

3%

48.4%

51.6%

-3.2%

 

49.00%

50.00%

48.4%

50.7%

 

ARG (1258 LV)

10/28 - 10/30

48%

48%

1%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

 

50.25%

48.75%

48.7%

50.6%

 

ABC/Wash Post (2904 LV)**

10/28 - 10/31

48%

49%

0%

1%

49.5%

50.5%

-1.0%

 

50.25%

49.75%

49.1%

50.2%

 

NBC/WSJ (1014 LV)

10/29 - 10/31

47%

48%

1%

1%

49.5%

50.5%

-1.1%

 

50.00%

49.00%

49.5%

49.7%

 

CNN/USA/Gallup(1573 LV)*

10/29 - 10/31

49%

49%

1%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

 

49.75%

49.25%

49.9%

49.4%

 

Reuters/Zogby (1208 LV)

10/29 - 10/31

47%

48%

1%

1%

49.5%

50.5%

-1.1%

 

50.00%

49.00%

50.1%

49.2%

 

FOX News (1200 LV)

10/30 - 10/31

48%

46%

1%

-2%

51.1%

48.9%

2.1%

 

51.75%

47.25%

50.4%

48.9%

 

Harris (1509 LV)

10/29 - 11/1

48%

49%

2%

1%

49.5%

50.5%

-1.0%

 

48.75%

49.25%

50.1%

48.8%

 

CBS News (939 LV)

10/29 - 11/1

47%

49%

1%

2%

49.0%

51.0%

-2.1%

 

49.25%

49.75%

49.9%

48.9%

 

TIPP (1041 LV)

10/30 - 11/1

48%

50%

1%

2%

48.9%

51.1%

-2.1%

 

48.60%

50.30%

49.7%

49.1%

 

GW/Battleground (1000 LV)

10/31 - 11/1

46%

50%

0%

4%

47.9%

52.1%

-4.2%

 

49.00%

51.00%

49.5%

49.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RCP

31 RV

 

 

 

 

2-party

Projected

 

 

Projected

 

5-Poll MA

 

 

 

Date

Kerry

Bush

Other

Spread

Kerry

Bush

Diff

 

Kerry

Bush

Kerry

Bush

 

AVERAGE

7/6 - 9/26

45.03%

45.06%

3.10%

0.03%

50.00%

50.00%

-0.01%

 

50.14%

46.77%

50.40%

46.43%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NBC News (504 RV)

7/6

49%

41%

4%

-8%

54.4%

45.6%

8.9%

 

53.5%

42.5%

53.5%

42.5%

 

AP/Ipsos (804 RV)

7/5-7/7

45%

49%

3%

4%

47.9%

52.1%

-4.3%

 

47.3%

49.8%

50.4%

46.1%

 

Newsweek (1,001 RV)

7/8-7/9

47%

44%

3%

-3%

51.6%

48.4%

3.3%

 

51.5%

45.5%

50.8%

45.9%

 

IBD/TIPP (800 RV)

7/6-7/10

47%

43%

4%

-4%

52.2%

47.8%

4.4%

 

51.5%

44.5%

50.9%

45.6%

 

Wash Post/ABC (721 RV)

7/8-7/11

46%

46%

4%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

 

49.0%

47.0%

50.6%

45.9%

 

CBS/NYT (823 RV)

7/11-7/15

45%

42%

5%

-3%

51.7%

48.3%

3.4%

 

51.0%

44.0%

50.1%

46.2%

 

Marist (938 RV)

7/12-7/15

45%

44%

2%

-1%

50.6%

49.4%

1.1%

 

51.8%

46.3%

51.0%

45.5%

 

IBD/TIPP (842 RV)

7/12-7/17

42%

40%

4%

-2%

51.2%

48.8%

2.4%

 

52.5%

43.5%

51.2%

45.1%

 

Pew (1,568 RV)

7/8-7/18

46%

44%

3%

-2%

51.1%

48.9%

2.2%

 

51.3%

45.8%

51.1%

45.3%

 

LA Times (1,529 RV)

7/17-7/21

46%

44%

3%

-2%

51.1%

48.9%

2.2%

 

51.3%

45.8%

51.6%

45.1%

 

NBC/WSJ (813 RV)

7/19-7/21

45%

47%

2%

2%

48.9%

51.1%

-2.2%

 

49.5%

48.5%

51.3%

46.0%

 

Quinnipiac Univ. (1551 RV)

7/18-7/22

44%

43%

4%

-1%

50.6%

49.4%

1.1%

 

50.8%

45.3%

51.1%

45.8%

 

Time/SRBI (1000 RV)

7/20-7/22

46%

43%

5%

-3%

51.7%

48.3%

3.4%

 

50.5%

44.5%

50.7%

46.0%

 

IBD/TIPP (883 RV)

7/19-7/24

44%

42%

3%

-2%

51.2%

48.8%

2.3%

 

52.3%

44.8%

50.9%

45.8%

 

ABC News/WP (909 RV)

7/22-7/25

46%

48%

3%

2%

48.9%

51.1%

-2.1%

 

48.3%

48.8%

50.3%

46.4%

 

Newsweek (1,010 RV)

7/29-7/30

49%

42%

3%

-7%

53.8%

46.2%

7.7%

 

53.5%

43.5%

51.1%

45.4%

 

ARG (776 RV)

7/30-8/1

49%

45%

2%

-4%

52.1%

47.9%

4.3%

 

52.0%

46.0%

51.3%

45.5%

 

CBS News (991 RV)

7/31-8/1

48%

43%

3%

-5%

52.7%

47.3%

5.5%

 

52.5%

44.5%

51.7%

45.5%

 

IBD/TIPP (841 RV)

8/2 - 8/5

45%

42%

5%

-3%

51.7%

48.3%

3.4%

 

51.0%

44.0%

51.5%

45.4%

 

AP/Ipsos (798 RV)

8/3 - 8/5

48%

45%

3%

-3%

51.6%

48.4%

3.2%

 

51.0%

46.0%

52.0%

44.8%

 

Pew (1,166 RV)

8/5 - 8/10

47%

45%

2%

-2%

51.1%

48.9%

2.2%

 

51.5%

46.5%

51.6%

45.4%

 

CBS News (835 RV)

8/15 - 8/18

46%

45%

1%

-1%

50.5%

49.5%

1.1%

 

52.0%

47.0%

51.6%

45.6%

 

IBD/TIPP (884 RV)

8/17 - 8/23

43%

43%

5%

0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

 

49.8%

45.3%

51.1%

45.8%

 

LA Times (1,352 RV)

8/21 - 8/24

44%

47%

3%

3%

48.4%

51.6%

-3.3%

 

48.5%

48.5%

50.6%

46.7%

 

NBC News/WSJ (806 RV)

8/23 - 8/25

45%

47%

3%

2%

48.9%

51.1%

-2.2%

 

48.8%

48.3%

50.1%

47.1%

 

Newsweek (1,008 RV)

9/2 - 9/3

41%

52%

3%

11%

44.1%

55.9%

-11.8%

 

44.0%

53.0%

48.6%

48.4%

 

CBS News (909 RV)

9/6 - 9/8

42%

49%

1%

7%

46.2%

53.8%

-7.7%

 

48.0%

51.0%

47.8%

49.2%

 

Newsweek (1003 RV)

9/9 - 9/10

43%

49%

2%

6%

46.7%

53.3%

-6.5%

 

47.5%

50.5%

47.4%

50.3%

 

CBS News (1048 RV)

9/12 - 9/16

41%

50%

3%

9%

45.1%

54.9%

-9.9%

 

45.5%

51.5%

46.8%

50.9%

 

Pew Research (989 RV)

9/17 - 9/21

42%

45%

3%

3%

48.3%

51.7%

-3.4%

 

49.5%

47.5%

46.9%

50.7%

 

Pew Research (948 RV)

9/22 - 9/26

40%

48%

2%

8%

45.5%

54.5%

-9.1%

 

47.5%

50.5%

47.6%

50.2%

 

 

Hosted by www.Geocities.ws

1