Just prior to the 2006 Midterms, three articles were written by the author with Michael Collins (autorank) and published by Alistair Thompson of SCOOP. The purpose was to quantify the risk of fraud in the Midterms. The analysis forecast that the Democrats would gain control of the House and Senate and indicated the House and Senate races where fraud was most likely to occur. Subsequently, documented evidence of voting anomalies confirmed that the landslide was denied and millions of votes were either uncounted or switched.
The election fraud model projected that the Democrats would win at least 240 House seats, but lose 10-15 to fraud. It correctly forecast that they would gain control of the Senate by winning six GOP-held seats. The Democratic Tsunami overcame the fraud in the House and Senate.
There is no longer any doubt that the poll/vote discrepancies in the 2006 midterms were caused by uncounted and switched votes. Evidence of fraud was once again found in the Final 2006 National Exit Poll. It was forced to match the recorded vote count with an implausible returning 2004 voter mix. The 2006 Final “Voted in 2004” returning voter mix was manipulated just like the 2004 “ Voted in 2000” mix.
In 2006, the returning Bush/Kerry voter mix was transformed from 47 / 45% at the 7pm timeline to 49/ 43% in the Final NEP. This replicated the 2004 NEP in which the returning Bush/Gore mix was changed from 41/39% at 12:22am to an impossible 43/ 37%, switching the Kerry win to Bush. The net effect of the change in 2006 was to cut the Democratic margin in half - from 55-43% to 52-46%. Applying a plausible returning voter mix to the 7pm NEP, the Democratic landslide margin grows to 56.7-42.1%, exactly matching the 120-Generic poll trend projection.
This is the best evidence that once again the Final Exit Poll was forced to match a fraudulent miscount. Simple logic dictates that if just one demographic requires impossible or implausible weights and/or vote shares in order to match the vote count, then all other demographics must be bogus as well.
Matching to the vote is nothing new; exit pollsters have been doing it long before Bush arrived on the scene and stolen elections became the norm. In the pre-Bush world, matching the Final NEP to an essentially fraud-free recorded vote made sense - until BushCo came along and stole the 2000 election, along with repeat performances in 2002 and 2004. The 2006 Democratic Tsunami overwhelmed the fraud but the Dems still "lost" 10-15 House seats they should have won.
Mark Lindeman, a poster on the Democratic Underground, has tried to debunk the work of election analysts who have argued that pre-election and unadjusted exit poll discrepancies are indicators of fraud. Referring to the final Pew 2006 Generic poll (47 Dem / 43% Rep), Mark said on the Democratic Underground : “personally, I think Pew was probably not far off”. That was a very interesting observation, considering that the Democrats won all 120 pre-election polls and he chose Pew, despite the fact that the margin was 10% below the average regression trend line.
The Generic poll model projected a 56-42% Democratic landslide with a vote share which steadily increased over the 14 month period from Sept. 2005 to Election Day. The GOP trend line was flat. The 120-poll linear time series regression graph shows that the trend line closely matched both the 7:0pm National Exit poll and the Wikipedia vote count.
The Final 2006 National Exit poll was matched to the recorded, fraudulent vote count, with more than the usual percentage of uncounted votes and switched votes. Literally thousands of reported machine “glitches” were documented nationwide; 18,000 missing votes in FL-13 caused the Democrat to lose. Virtually all documented vote switches were Democratic to Republican. As Casey Stengel used to say: you can look it up.
To derive an approximation to the TRUE vote for all demographics, the 7pm NEP vote shares and weights were adjusted to match the 57.8-40.2% Wikipedia Democratic vote margin. The base case assumptions were that 4.0% of Democratic votes and 1.4% of Republican/other votes were uncounted and 7% of Democratic votes were switched to the Republicans.
The TRUE 16% Democratic margin was based on the 120-Generic poll linear trend which was confirmed by the Wikipedia early vote count. It has always been the case that millions of ballots, mostly Democratic, are never counted. In this election, uncounted ballots accounted for less than half of the total discrepancy. The major fraud factor was vote-switching at the polling place and/or the central tabulator. The analysis does not include the millions of disenfranchised voters (mostly Democratic) who never got to the polls. The Generic LV pre-election polls, as one-sided as they were, low-balled the intended Democratic vote.
In both the 7:07pm and Final 1:00pm Exit Polls, the results were adjusted to obtain an estimated TRUE vote. For each demographic, switched vote rates were applied to final vote shares to determine pre-switch shares. Uncounted votes were subtracted from the 7:07pm exit poll result. Unlike the Final, the 7:07pm poll was NOT matched to the vote count. Uncounted and switched vote shares were added back to the Final since it was contaminated in matching to the vote count. The True Vote is given by:
TV = Recorded + Uncounted + Switched
Generic Pre-election Poll Trend vs. the
7:07pm and Final National Exit Poll
National Exit Poll
Source Dem Rep Other
CNN-7pm 55.2%
43.4% 1.5%
CNN-Final 52.2% 45.9% 2.5%
NYT
53.1% 44.9% 2.0%
Reported National Vote
Wikipedia 57.7% 41.8% 0.5%
CBS- Nat 52.7% 45.1%
2.2%
CBS-State 51.3% 46.4% 2.3%
120 Generic Poll Linear Regression Trend
Dem = 46.98 + .0419x
Rep = 38.06 +
.0047x
Substituting x = 120 and allocating 60% of the undecided vote (UVA) to the Democrats:
Trend + UVA = Projection
Dem = 52.01 + 4.42 =
56.43%
Rep = 38.62 +
2.95 = 41.57%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_elections%2C_2006
Party Seats Popular Vote
2004 2006 Chg
Dem 202
233 +31 39,267,916 57.7%
+11.1%
Rep 232
202 -30 28,464,092 41.8%
–7.4%
Ind
1 0
-1 69,7707
0.1% +0.5%
Other
0 0
0 255,876
0.4% –3.2%
Total 435
435 0 68,057,591
100%
Democratic
Projection Probabilities
Proj Freq
Prob
54.0
120 100.0
54.5
119 99.2
55.0
116 96.7
55.5
105 87.5
56.0
92 76.7
56.5
76 63.3
57.0
47 39.2
57.5
31 25.8
58.0
20 16.7
58.5
5 4.2
59.0
1 0.8
Note:
76.7% probability that the vote share would exceed 56%
National
Exit Poll Timeline vs. the True Vote (Generic Poll Trend)
VOTED 2004
--------- 7:07pm ----------- --------- 1pm Final --------- ----- True Generic
Vote
----- &nnbsp;
MIX Dem Rep
Other MIX Dem
Rep Other MIX
Dem Rep Other
Kerry
45% 93%
6% 1%
43% 92%
7% 1%
49% 93%
6% 1%
Bush
47% 17%
82% 1%
49% 15%
83% 2%
46% 17%
82% 1%
Other
4% 67%
23% 10%
4% 66%
23% 11% 1%
67% 23% 10%
DNV
4% 67%
30% 3%
4% 66%
32% 2%
4% 67%
30% 3%
TOTAL 100%
55.2% 43.4% 1.4%
100% 52.2% 45.9%
1.9% 100% 56.7%
42.1% 1.2%
National Exit Poll (7pm)
Weight: DNV 4%; Other
4%
7pm
Kerry
43% 44%
45% 46%
47% 48%
49% 50% 51%
Bush
49% 48%
47% 46%
45% 44%
43% 42% 41%
Dem
53.7% 54.4% 55.2% 56.0%
56.7% 57.5% 58.2% 59.0% 59.8%
Final National Exit Poll (1pm)
Weight: DNV 4%; Other
4%
1pm
Kerry
43% 44%
45% 46%
47% 48%
49% 50% 51%
Bush
49% 48%
47% 46%
45% 44% 43%
42% 41%
Dem
52.2% 53.0% 53.7% 54.5%
55.3% 56.0% 56.8% 57.6% 58.4%
True Vote
Weight: DNV 4%; Other 1%
True
Kerry
43% 44%
45% 46%
47% 48% 49%
50% 51%
Bush
52% 51%
50% 49%
48% 47%
46% 45% 44%
Dem
52.2% 52.9% 53.7% 54.5%
55.2% 56.0% 56.7% 57.5% 58.3%
2006 Uncounted and Switched Votes
The goal of this model was to determine the percentage of votes which needed to be switched from the Democrats to the Republicans in order to match the Nov. 9 CBS News reported 52.7% Democratic vote. The Democratic 120 Generic poll trend forecast 56.4%; the initial Wikipedia vote count was 57.7D-41.8R. The model assumes that the Wikipedia numbers represented the TRUE national vote. The analysis does not include the millions of disenfranchised
voters (mostly Democratic) who never got to the polls. The Generic LV pre-election polls, as one-sided as they were, low-balled the intended Democratic vote.
Based on historical statistics, approximately 3% of total votes cast are never counted. Approximately 75% of them are Democratic. The racial mix was used to approximate the number of uncounted votes in each state, assuming that 8% of non-whites and 2% of white votes were uncounted. The base case analysis assumes that 7% of the recorded votes were switched. To match the Wikipedia vote share, we assume that 3.16% of total votes cast were uncounted. Almost one in 12 Democratic votes must have been switched to the Republicans.
To derive an approximation to the TRUE vote in each demographic category, the 7pm NEP vote shares and weights were adjusted to match the Wikipedia vote. The base case assumptions were that 4.0% of Democratic votes and 1.4% of Republican/other votes were uncounted and 7% of Democratic votes were switched to the Republicans.
The 16% Democratic margin was based on the 120-Generic poll linear trend that was confirmed in the Wikipedia early vote count. It has always been the case that millions of ballots, mostly Democratic, are never counted. In this election, uncounted ballots accounted for less than half of the total discrepancy. The major fraud factor was vote-switching at the polling place and/or the central tabulator.
Assuming a 7.0% switch-vote rate, the Democratic TRUE vote was 56.94%, a close match to the Generic 120-Poll trend line projection. At an 8.5% switch rate the TRUE vote was 57.7%, matching the Wikipedia recorded vote share.
Model Assumptions
Switched: 7.00% Dem to Rep
Uncounted: 3.16% of total votes cast
Uncounted
Vote Shares
Race Share Reported
Pct Unctd Total Pct
Unctd
White 2.0%
62542 81.7% 1276 63819
80.7% 1.61%
Other 8.0%
14043 18.3% 1221 15264
19.3%
1.54%
Total 3.16%
76585 100% 2497
79082 100%
3.16%
Base Case
Summary
Switched TRUE Vote
Dem
75% 40331 52.66%
1873 42204 53.37% 2.45%
2823 45027 56.94%
Rep
23% 34564 45.13%
574 35138 44.43% 0.75%
-2823 32315 40.86%
Other
2% 1690 2.21%
50 1740 2.20%
2.87% 0 1740
2.20%
Total 3.16%
76585 100.0% 2497 79082
100.0% 3.16%
0 79082 100.0%
Probability
of Vote Discrepancy
MoE
1.50%
Prob = NORMDIST
(0.5266, 0.5694, 0.015/1.96, TRUE)
1 in
86,082,782
Sensitivity
Analysis of Democratic TRUE Vote to Switched-vote rate
Switch Dem%
Probability: 1 in
5.0% 56.17% 444,121
6.0% 56.43% 2,308,702
(matches 120 Generic poll trend)
6.5% 56.68% 13,359,311
7.0%
56.94% 86,082,782 (base case)
7.5% 57.19%
617,885,835
8.0% 57.45%
4,941,793,389
8.5% 57.70%
43,247,703,725 (matches Wikipedia vote count)
Generic Poll Projection
Trend vs. Final 10 Poll Average
This is an update to the Generic poll model using two projection methods:
1) Allocating undecided voters (UVA) to the final 120-poll linear trend.
2) Allocating the UVA to the average of the final 10 Generic polls.
The 120-poll trend and 10-poll projections matched to within .05%.
The reported Democratic vote share was
1) 51.3% based on CBS state totals (11/09).
2) 52.7% based on CBS national totals.
3) 57.7% based on Wikipedia national totals.
4) 52.6% based on the CNN Final National Exit Poll (11/08).
Key model results:
Assuming the Democrats captured 60% of the undecided vote,
1-the 120-Generic poll trend line projected a 56.43% share
2-the Final 10 Generic poll average projected a 56.38% share
The probability is near ZERO that the vote/poll discrepancies were due to chance.
120 Generic Poll Linear Regression
Trend:
Dem = 46.98 + .0419x
GOP = 38.06 + .0047x
Substituting x=120 and allocating 60%
(UVA) to the Democrats:
Trend + UVA = Projection
Dem = 52.01 + 4.42 = 56.43%
Rep = 38.62 + 2.95 = 41.57%
________________________________________________
Projected Democratic Vote
Share based on the Final 10-poll Average
Assumption: 60% of the undecided vote (UVA)
allocated to Democrats
.............. Dem
GOP Margin
Avg
Date 52.0 38.7 13.3
Harris 1023 47
33 14
AP
1030 56 37
19
CBS
1101 52 33
19
Nwk
1103 54 38
16
TIME
1103 55 40
15
Pew*
1104 47
43 4
ABC*
1104 51
45 6
USA*
1106 51
44 7
CNN
1106 58 38
20
FOX
1106 49 36
13
Average
52.0% 38.7% 13.3%
UVA
4.4% 2.9%
0.9%
Projection
56.4% 41.6% 14.8%
CBS State Vote 51.3% 46.4%
4.9%
Discrepancy
-5.1% 4.8%
-9.9%
3(*)
outliers
Average
49.67 44.00 5.67
2-party
53.02 46.98
7
polls
Average
53.00 36.43 16.57
2-party
59.27 40.73
10 Polls
Average
52.00 38.70 13.30
2-party
57.33 42.67
Sensitivity Analysis I
Probability
of discrepancy between the aggregate CBS-reported state vote and the 10-poll
projection for
various margins of error (MoE) and undecided voter allocation (UVA) assumptions.
10 Polls 52.00%
60% UVA
4.38%
Projected 56.38%
UVA
50% 56.1% 60% 65%
70% 75%
Proj. 55.7%
56.1% 56.4% 56.8% 57.2% 57.5% Democratic projection
Margin 13.3%
14.2% 14.8% 15.5% 16.2% 17.0%
Deviation 4.4% 4.8%
5.1% 5.5% 5.8% 6.2%
MoE Probability
of Vote Discrepancy
1 in
1.25% 219b
36t 1286t nc
nc nc
1.50% 151m
5.4b 62b 1.8t
63t 3002t
1.75% 1.8m
25m 157m 1.9b
26b 428b
2.00%
99k 766k
3m 21m
161m 1.4b
2.25%
13k 68k 207k
950k 4.8m 27m
2.50%
3k 12k
29k 102k 381k 1.5m
2.75%
1k 3.2k 6.8k
19k 58k 186k
3.00%
446 1.2k 2.2k
5.3k 14k 37k
_________________________________________________________________
Sensitivity Analysis II
Probability of discrepancy between 120 Generic Poll forecast and the Final NEP for various MoE assumptions
Democratic vote share:
Exit poll:
52.70%
Generics:
56.43%
Deviation:
3.73%
MoE Probability:
1 in
1.00% 7,474,854,153,312
1.25% 402,249,154
1.50% 1,825,026
1.75% 67,847
2.00% 7,787
2.25% 1,728
2.50% 579
2.75% 255
3.00% 135
_________________________________________________________________
Sensitivity Analysis III
Probability of discrepancy between the Wikipedia vote count and the National Exit Poll for various MoE assumptions
Democratic share:
Exit poll:
52.7%
Wikipedia:
57.7%
Deviation:
5.0%
MoE Probability:
1 in
1.00% nc
1.25% 450,359,962,737,050
1.50% 30,938,221,975
1.75% 93,056,001
2.00% 2,083,900
2.25% 150,566
2.50% 22,577
2.75% 5,467
3.00% 1,838
http://www.pollingreport.com/2006.htm
5-poll Moving Avg Projection
Poll
Survey
Dates
DEM GOP
Other Diff DemMA
GOPMA Dem
GOP
Diff DiffMA
Number
Average
All 49.5
38.3 12.1
11.2 49.5
38.3 56.8
43.2
13.6 13.6
2005
1
Newsweek RV 905
50 38
12 12
50.0 38.0
57.2
42.8
14.4 14.4
2
Pew RV 911
52
40
8
12 51.0
39.0 57.0
43.0
14.0 14.2
3
DemCorp LV 921
48 39
13 9
50.0 39.0
56.6
43.4
13.2 13.9
4
Newsweek RV 930
47 42
11
5 49.3 39.8
55.9
44.2
11.7 13.3
5
DemCorp LV 1010
46 41
14 5
48.6 40.0
55.4
44.6
10.9 12.8
6
GWU LV 1012
47
41 13
6 48.0
40.6 54.8
45.2
9.7 11.9
7
Hotline RV 1016
40 31
29 9
45.6 38.8
55.0
45.0
9.9 11.1
8
DemCorp LV 1023
48 39
12
9 45.6
38.8 55.0
45.0
9.9 10.4
9
Gallup RV 1023
50 43
7 7
46.2 39.0
55.1
44.9
10.2 10.1
10
ABC/WP RV 1102
52 37
12 15
47.4 38.2
56.0 44.0
12.1 10.4
11
DemCorp LV 1106
48 40
12 8
47.6 38.0
56.2
43.8
12.5 10.9
12
Newsweek RV 1105 53
36 11
17 50.2
39.0 56.7 43.3
13.4 11.6
13
Hotline RV 1115
41 35
24 6
48.8 38.2
56.6
43.4
13.2 12.3
14
DemCorp LV 1120
48 41
11
7 48.4
37.8 56.7
43.3
13.4 12.9
15
Time RV
1201 48
36 15
12 47.6
37.6 56.5
43.5
13.0 13.1
16
DemCorp LV 1204
49 39
12 10
47.8 37.4
56.7
43.3 13.4
13.2
17
CBS/NYT RV 1206
42 33
25 9
45.6 36.8
56.2
43.8
12.3 13.0
18
DemCorp LV 1212
49 41 9
8 47.2
38.0 56.1
43.9 12.2
12.8
19
Hotline RV
1213 43
33 25
10 46.2
36.4 56.6
43.4
13.3 12.8
20
NPR LV 1218
45 37
17
8 45.6
36.6 56.3
43.7
12.6 12.7
21
ABC/WP RV 1218
51 41
9 10
46.0 37.0
56.2
43.8
12.4 12.5
2006
22
Gallup RV
108 49
43 8
6 47.4
39.0 55.6
44.4
11.1 12.3
23
CBS/NYT RV 125
43 34
23 9
46.2 37.6
55.9
44.1
11.8 12.2
24
Dem Corp LV 125
49 41
10 8
47.4 39.2
55.4
44.6
10.9 11.8
25
ABC/WP RV
126 54
38
9 16
49.2 39.4
56.0
44.0
12.1 11.7
26
Pew RV 205
50
41
9 9
49.0 39.4
56.0
44.0
11.9 11.6
27
Gallup RV
212 50
43
8 7
49.2 39.4
56.0
44.0
12.1 11.8
28
GWU LV 215
46
41 14
5 49.8
40.8 55.4
44.6
10.9 11.6
29
Hotline RV 219
46 31
23 15
49.2 38.8
56.4
43.6
12.8 12.0
30
DemCorp LV 227
48 40
12 8
48.0 39.2
55.7
44.3
11.4 11.8
31
Gallup RV
301 53
39
7 14
48.6 38.8
56.2
43.8
12.3 11.9
32
FOX LV
301
48 34
18 14
48.2 37.0
57.1
42.9
14.2 12.3
33
Gallup RV
312 55
39
7 16
50.0 36.6
58.0
42.0
16.1 13.3
34
NPR LV
314
52 37
11 15
51.2 37.8 57.8
42.2
15.6 13.9
35
Newsweek RV 317
50 39
11 11
51.6 37.6
58.1
41.9
16.2 14.9
36
Time RV
323 50
41
9 9
51.0 38.0 57.6
42.4
15.2 15.4
37
CBS RV 409
44
34 22
10 50.2
38.0 57.3
42.7
14.6 15.5
38
ABC/WP RV
409 55
40
5 15
50.2 38.2
57.2 42.8
14.3 15.2
39
Gallup RV
409 52
42
6 10
50.2 39.2
56.6
43.4
13.1 14.7
40
Pew RV
416 51
41
8 10
50.4 39.6
56.4 43.6
12.8 14.0
41
CNN RV
423 50
40
9 10
50.4 39.4
56.5
43.5
13.0 13.6
42
Cook
430
44 32
24 12
50.4 39.0
56.8 43.2
13.5 13.4
43
Gallup RV
430 54
39 7
15 50.2
38.8 56.8
43.2
13.6 13.2
44
FOX LV
503 41
38 21
3 48.0
38.0 56.4
43.6 12.8
13.2
45
CNN RV
507 52
38 10
14 48.2
37.4 56.8
43.2
13.7 13.3
46
CBS/NYT RV 508
44 33
23 11
47.0 36.0
57.2
42.8
14.4 13.6
47
Newsweek RV 512
50 39
11 11
48.2 37.4
56.8
43.2
13.7 13.6
48
ABC/WP RV
515 52
40
9 12
47.8 37.6
56.6
43.4
13.1 13.5
49
Fabrizio LV 517
39 36
25 3
47.4 37.2
56.6
43.4
13.3 13.6
50
Hotline RV 521
42 36
22 6
45.4 36.8
56.1
43.9
12.2 13.3
51
Gallup RV
604 51
42
7 9
46.8 38.6
55.6
44.4
11.1 12.7
52
Gallup RV
611 51
39 10
12 47.0
38.6 55.6
44.4
11.3 12.2
53
FOX LV 614
46
33 20
13 45.8
37.2 56.0
44.0
12.0 12.0
54
CNN RV 615
45
38 16
7 47.0
37.6 56.2
43.8
12.5 11.8
55
Pew RV 619
51
39 10
12 48.8
38.2 56.6
43.4
13.2 12.0
56
Hotline RV 625
41 36
24 5
46.8 37.0
56.5
43.5
13.0 12.4
57
ABC/WP RV
625 52
39
9
13 47.0
37.0 56.6
43.4
13.2 12.8
58
Gallup RV
625 54
38
7 16
48.6 38.0
56.6
43.4
13.3 13.0
59
TIME LV 629
47 35
18 12
49.0 37.4 57.2
42.8
14.3 13.4
60
Gallup RV
709 51
41
9 10
49.0 37.8
56.9
43.1
13.8 13.5
61
AP-Ipsos RV 712
51 40
9
11 51.0
38.6 57.2
42.8
14.5 13.8
62
FOX LV
712
42 34
25 8
49.0 37.6
57.0
43.0
14.1 14.0
63
Hotline RV 723 48
32 20
16 47.8
36.4 57.3 42.7
14.6 14.3
64
CBS/NYT RV 725
45 35
20 10
47.4 36.4
57.1
42.9
14.2 14.2
65
Gallup RV
770 51
40
8
11 47.4
36.2 57.2
42.8
14.5 14.4
66
CNN RV
803
53 40
7
13 47.8
36.2 57.4
42.6
14.8 14.4
67
ABC/WP RV
806 52 39
8
13 49.8
37.2 57.6
42.4
15.2 14.7
68
AP-Ipsos RV 809
55 37
8 18
51.2 38.2
57.6
42.4
15.1 14.8
69
FOX LV
809
48 30
22 18
51.8 37.2
58.4
41.6
16.8 15.3
70
Gallup RV
810 50
41
9 9
51.6 37.4
58.2
41.8
16.4 15.7
71
Newsweek RV 811
51 39
10 12
51.2 37.2
58.2
41.8
16.3 16.0
72
Pew RV 813
50
41
9 9
50.8 37.6
57.8
42.2
15.5 16.0
73
Hotline RV 820
40 33
27 7
47.8 36.8
57.0
43.0
14.1 15.8
74
Gallup RV
820 47
45
7 2
47.6 39.8
55.2
44.8
10.3 14.5
75
CNN RV
820 52
43 6
9 48.0
40.2 55.1
44.9
10.2 13.3
76
CBS/NYT RV 821
47 32
21 15
47.2 38.8
55.6
44.4
11.2 12.3
77
TIME LV
824 51
40
9 11
47.4 38.6
55.8
44.2
11.6 11.5
78
Newsweek RV 825
50 38
12 12
49.4 39.6
56.0
44.0
12.0 11.1
79
FOX LV
830 48
32 21
16 49.6
37.0 57.6
42.4
15.3 12.0
80
CNN LV
902 53
43 4
10 49.8
37.0 57.7
42.3
15.4 13.1
81
ABC RV
907 50
42 9
8 50.4 39.0
56.8
43.2
13.5 13.6
82
Pew RV
910 50
39 11
11 50.2
38.8 56.8
43.2
13.6 14.0
83
Gallup RV
910 53
41
7 12
50.8 39.4
56.7
43.3
13.4 14.2
84
FOX LV
913 41
38 21
3 49.4
40.6 55.4
44.6
10.8 13.3
85
Gallup LV 917
48 48
4 0
48.4 41.6 54.4
45.6
8.8 12.0
86
CBS/NYT RV 919
50 35
15 15
48.4 40.2
55.2
44.8
10.5 11.4
87
CNN LV 924
55
42
3 13
49.4 40.8
55.3 44.7
10.6 10.8
88
FOX LV
927
49 38
14 11
48.6 40.2
55.3
44.7
10.6 10.3
89
Hotline RV 927
43 33
24 10
49.0 39.2
56.1 43.9
12.2 10.5
90
Zogby LV
928 42
33 25
9 47.8
36.2 57.4
42.6
14.8 11.7
91
CNN LV 1002
53
42
5 11
48.4 37.6
56.8 43.2
13.6 12.4
92
AP-Ipsos RV 1004
51 38
11 13
47.6 36.8
57.0
43.0
13.9 13.0
93
Pew RV
1004 51
41 8
10 48.0
37.4 56.8
43.2 13.5
13.6
94
TIME LV
1005 54
39
7 15
50.2 38.6
56.9
43.1
13.8 13.9
95
Newsweek RV 1006
51 39
7 12
52.0 39.8
56.9
43.1
13.8 13.7
96
ABC RV
1008 54
41
5 13
52.2 39.6
57.1
42.9
14.2 13.9
97
CNN LV
1008 58
37
5 21
53.6 39.4
57.8
42.2
15.6 14.2
98
Gallup LV 1008
59 36
4 23
55.2 38.4
59.0
41.0
18.1 15.1
99
Harris LV 1009
49 36
15 13
54.2 37.8
59.0
41.0
18.0 16.0
100
FOX LV 1011
50 41
9 9
54.0 38.2
58.7
41.3
17.4 16.7
101
CNN LV 1015
56 40
4 16
54.4 38.0
59.0
41.0
17.9 17.4
102 NBC
RV 1016
52 37
11 15
53.2 38.0
58.5
41.5
17.0 17.7
103
Newsweek LV 1021
55 37
8 18
52.4 38.2
58.0
42.0
16.1 17.3
104
Gallup LV 1023
54 41
5
13 53.4
39.2 57.8
42.2
15.7 16.8
105
ABC RV
1023 54
41
5 13
54.2 39.2
58.2
41.8
16.3 16.6
106
CNN LV 1022
57 40
3
17 54.4 39.2
58.2
41.8
16.5 16.3
107
Hotline RV 1023
52 34
13 18
54.4 38.6
58.6
41.4
17.2 16.4
108
Zogby LV 1025
44 33
23 11
52.2 37.8 58.2
41.8
16.4 16.4
109
FOX LV 1025 49
38 13
11 51.2
37.2 58.2
41.8
16.3 16.5
110
Newsweek LV 1027
53 39
8
14 51.0
36.8 58.3
41.7
16.6 16.6
111
CNN LV
1029 53
42 5
11 50.2
37.2 57.8
42.2
15.5 16.4
112
NBC LV
1030 52
37 11
15 50.2
37.8 57.4 42.6
14.8 15.9
113
CBS/NYT LV 1101
52 33
15 19
51.8 37.8
58.0
42.0
16.1 15.9
114
Newsweek LV 1103
54 38
8
16 52.8
37.8 58.4
41.6
16.9 16.0
115
TIME LV 1103
55 40
5 15
53.2 38.0
58.5
41.5
17.0 16.0
116
Pew LV
1104
47 43
10
4 52.0
38.2 57.9
42.1
15.8 16.1
117
ABC LV 1104
51 45
4 6
51.8 39.8
56.8
43.2
13.7 15.9
118
USA/Gallup LV 1106
51 44
4
7 51.6
42.0 55.4
44.6 10.9
14.8
119
CNN LV 1106
58 38
4 20
52.4 42.0
55.8
44.2
11.5 13.8
120
FOX LV 1106
49 36
15 13
51.2 41.2
55.8
44.2
11.5 12.7
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
National
Exit Poll Timeline Summary
CNN.com - Elections
2006
10,207
Respondents
13,251 Respondents
7:07pm
11/07
1:00pm
11/08
Generic Pre-election Trend
Categ
Dem
Rep
Other
Dem Rep Other
Margin
Dem
Rep Other Margin
Vote04
55.20% 43.36%
1.44%
52.19% 45.88% 1.93%
6.31%
57.50% 41.33% 1.17% 16.17%
Gender
55.04% 43.47%
1.49%
52.55% 44.96% 2.49% 7.59%
58.04% 40.47% 1.49% 17.57%
Race/Gender
54.81% 43.71%
1.48%
52.62% 45.51% 1.88%
7.11%
57.77% 40.23% 0.00% 17.54%
Race
55.10% 43.11%
1.79%
53.34% 44.85% 1.81%
8.49%
57.88% 41.31% 1.81% 16.57%
Age
54.89% 43.44% 1.67%
52.44% 44.92% 1.64%
7.52%
57.89% 40.44% 1.67% 17.45%
Income
55.07% 43.27%
1.66%
53.28% 44.89% 1.83%
8.39%
57.92% 40.42% 1.66% 17.50%
Educ
55.05% 43.39% 1.56%
52.95% 45.47% 1.58%
7.48%
57.86% 40.58% 1.56% 17.28%
Decided
57.16% 41.48%
1.35%
54.25% 44.24% 1.51%
10.01%
58.19% 40.45% 1.35% 17.74%
Party
54.50% 43.72% 1.78%
53.04% 45.56% 1.40%
7.48%
57.80% 40.45% 1.75% 17.35%
Ideology 54.42% 43.58%
2.00%
52.53% 45.47% 2.00% 7.05%
57.34% 40.66% 2.00% 16.68%
Region
55.04% 43.54% 1.42%
52.74% 45.32% 1.94%
7.42%
57.94% 40.34% 1.94% 17.60%
Religion 54.22% 43.90%
1.88%
52.64% 45.30% 2.06% 7.34%
57.50% 40.62% 1.88% 16.88%
Area
54.84% 43.40%
1.76%
52.79% 45.21% 2.00%
7.58%
57.84% 40.40% 1.76% 17.44%
Senate
55.83% 42.60%
1.57%
55.11% 43.89% 1.00%
11.23%
57.75% 40.83% 1.42% 16.92%
Mean
55.08% 43.28%
1.63%
53.03% 45.10% 1.79%
7.93%
57.80% 40.61% 1.53%
17.19%
StDev
0.69% 0.58%
0.18%
0.76% 0.52% 0.34%
1.23% 0.22% 0.32%
0.48% 0.45%
HOW VOTED IN
2004
MIX Dem
Rep
Other
MIX** Dem Rep
Other
MIX* Dem
Rep Other
Kerry
45% 93%
6%
1%
43% 92%
7%
1%
50%
93% 6% 1%
Bush
47% 17%
82%
1%
49% 15%
83%
2%
45%
17% 82% 1%
Other
4% 67%
23%
10%
4% 66%
23%
11%
1%
67% 23% 10%
DNV
4% 67%
30%
3%
4% 66%
32%
2%
4% 67%
30% 3%
TOTAL
100% 55.20% 43.36%
1.44%
100% 52.19% 45.88%
1.93%
100% 57.50%
41.33% 1.17%
GENDER
MIX Dem
Rep
Other
MIX Dem
Rep Other
MIX*
Dem Rep Other
Male
49% 53%
45%
2%
49% 50%
47%
3%
48%
55% 43% 2%
Female
51% 57%
42%
1%
51% 55%
43%
2%
52%
59% 40% 1%
TOTAL
100% 55.04% 43.47%
1.49%
100% 52.55% 44.96%
2.49%
100% 57.08%
41.44% 1.48%
RACE/GENDER
MIX Dem
Rep
Other
MIX Dem
Rep Other
MIX
Dem Rep Other
WM
39% 47%
51%
2%
39% 44%
53%
3%
39%
50% 48% 2%
WF
40% 51%
48%
1%
40% 49%
50%
1%
40%
53% 45% 2%
NWM
9% 76%
22%
2%
9% 75%
23%
2%
9% 78%
20% 2%
NWF
11% 79%
20%
1%
11% 78% 21%
1%
11%
84% 14% 2%
TOTAL
99% 54.26% 43.27%
1.47%
99% 52.09% 45.05%
1.86%
99% 56.96%
40.06% 1.98%
WHEN DECIDED
MIX Dem
Rep
Other
MIX*** Dem
Rep
Other
MIX Dem
Rep Other
Today
9% 60%
37%
3%
10% 61%
36%
3%
9%
62% 35% 3%
3Days
9% 57%
41% 2%
9% 51%
47%
2%
9%
58% 40% 2%
Week
8% 53%
45%
2%
9% 52%
47%
1%
8% 54%
44% 2%
Month
21% 58%
41% 1%
21% 54%
44%
2%
21%
58% 41% 1%
Before
52% 57%
42%
1%
50% 54%
45%
1%
52%
57% 42% 1%
TOTAL
99% 56.59% 41.07%
1.34%
99% 53.71% 43.80%
1.49%
99% 56.94%
40.72% 1.34%
RACE
MIX Dem
Rep Other
MIX** Dem
Rep Other
MIX Dem
Rep Other
White
80% 49%
49%
2%
79% 47%
51%
2%
80%
50% 48% 2%
Black
10% 88% 12%
0%
10% 89%
10% 1%
10%
90% 10% 0%
Latino
8% 72%
26%
2%
8% 69%
30%
1%
8%
74% 24% 2%
Asian
2% 65%
35%
0%
2% 62%
37% 1%
2%
71% 29% 0%
Other
1% 59%
36%
5%
2% 55%
42%
3%
1%
62% 33% 5%
TOTAL
101% 55.65% 43.54%
1.81%
101% 53.89% 45.27%
1.84% 101% 56.96%
42.23% 1.81%
AGE
MIX Dem
Rep
Other
MIX**** Dem
Rep
Other
MIX
Dem Rep Other
18-29
11% 60%
38%
2%
12% 60%
38%
2%
11%
62% 36% 2%
30-44
23% 55%
43%
2%
24% 53%
45%
2%
23%
57% 41% 2%
45-59
33% 55%
44%
1%
34% 53%
46%
1%
33%
58% 41% 1%
60+ 33%
53% 45%
2%
29% 50% 48%
2%
33%
54% 44% 2%
TOTAL
100% 54.89% 43.44%
1.67%
99% 52.44% 44.92%
1.64%
100% 56.89%
41.44% 1.67%
INCOME
MIX Dem
Rep
Other
MIX Dem
Rep
Other
MIX
Dem Rep Other
< 15
7% 67%
30%
3%
7% 67%
30%
3%
7%
69% 28% 3%
15-30
12% 63%
35%
2%
12% 61%
36%
3%
12%
65% 33% 2%
30-50
21% 58%
41%
1%
21% 56%
43%
1%
21%
61% 38% 1%
50-75
22% 52%
46%
2%
22% 50%
48%
2%
22%
54% 44% 2%
75-100
15% 53%
46%
1%
15% 52%
47%
1%
15%
54% 45% 1%
100-150
13% 50%
48%
2% 13%
47% 51%
2%
13% 51%
47% 2%
150-200
5% 47%
51%
2%
5% 47%
51%
2%
5%
49% 49% 2%
200+
5% 48%
51%
1%
5% 45%
53%
2%
5% 49%
50% 1%
TOTAL
100% 55.07% 43.27%
1.66%
100% 53.28% 44.89%
1.83%
100% 56.95%
41.39% 1.66%
REGION
MIX Dem
Rep
Other
MIX* Dem
Rep
Other
MIX
Dem Rep Other
NE
22% 64%
35%
1%
22% 63%
35%
2%
22% 66%
33% 2%
MidW
27% 57%
42%
1%
27% 52%
47%
1%
27%
59% 40% 1%
South
29% 45%
54%
1%
30% 45%
53%
2%
30%
48% 50% 2%
West
21% 57%
40%
3%
21% 54%
43%
3%
21%
58% 39% 3%
TOTAL
99% 54.49% 43.10%
1.41%
100% 52.74% 45.32%
1.94%
100% 57.03%
41.25% 1.94%
EDUCATION
MIX Dem
Rep
Other
MIX*** Dem
Rep
Other
MIX
Dem Rep Other
NoHS
4% 64%
35%
1%
3% 64%
35% 1%
4%
67% 32% 1%
HSG
21% 57%
42%
1%
21% 55%
44%
1%
21%
59% 40% 1%
Col
30% 52%
46%
2%
31% 51%
47%
2%
30%
54% 44% 2%
Grad
26% 52%
46%
2%
27% 49%
49%
2%
26%
54% 44% 2%
PostG
19% 60%
39%
1%
18% 58% 41%
1%
19%
62% 37% 1%
TOTAL
100% 55.05% 43.39%
1.56%
100% 52.95% 45.47%
1.58%
100% 57.09%
41.35% 1.56%
EDUCATION
MIX Dem
Rep
Other
MIX** Dem
Rep
Other
MIX
Dem Rep Other
NoDeg
54% 55%
43%
2%
55% 53%
45%
2%
54% 55%
43% 2%
Grad
46% 55%
43%
2%
45% 53%
46%
1%
46%
59% 39% 2%
TOTAL
100% 55.00% 43.00%
2.00% 100%
53.00% 45.45%
1.55%
100% 56.84%
41.16% 2.00%
PARTYID
MIX Dem
Rep
Other MIX**
Dem Rep
Other
MIX
Dem Rep Other
Dem
39% 93%
6%
1%
38% 93%
7%
0%
40% 94%
5% 1%
Rep
35% 9%
90%
1%
36% 8%
91%
1%
35%
12% 87% 1%
Ind
26% 58%
38%
4%
26% 57%
39%
4%
25%
61% 35% 4%
TOTAL
100% 54.50% 43.72%
1.78%
100% 53.04% 45.56%
1.40%
100% 57.05%
41.20% 1.75%
IDEOLOGY
MIX Dem
Rep
Other MIX*
Dem Rep
Other
MIX Dem
Rep Other
Lib
21% 88%
10%
2%
20% 87%
11%
2%
21%
91% 7% 2%
Mod
48% 62%
36% 2%
47% 60%
38%
2%
48%
64% 34% 2%
Con
32% 21%
77%
2%
32% 20%
78%
2%
32%
22% 76% 2%
TOTAL
101% 54.96% 44.02% 2.02%
99% 52.00% 45.02%
1.98%
101% 56.87%
42.11% 2.02%
RELIGION
MIX
Dem Rep Other
MIX Dem
Rep
Other
MIX
Dem Rep Other
Prot
55% 46%
52%
2%
55% 44%
54%
2%
55%
49% 49% 2%
Cath
26% 56% 43%
1%
26% 55%
44% 1% 26%
58% 41% 1%
Jewish
2% 87%
10%
3%
2% 87%
12%
1%
2%
87% 10% 3%
Other
6% 71% 25%
4%
6% 71%
25% 4%
6%
75% 21% 4%
None
11% 76%
22%
2%
11% 74%
22%
4%
11%
80% 18% 2%
TOTAL
100% 54.22% 43.90%
1.88%
100% 52.64% 45.30%
2.06%
100% 57.07%
41.05% 1.88%
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
U.S. House Vote: CBS News
11/09
Reported
Uncounted Switch TRUE
Total Dem GOP
Other Margin Total%
Dem Rep
Other Dem
Dem
Rep Other Margin
76585 52.66% 45.13%
2.21% 7.53% 3.16%
1873 574 50
2823
56.94% 40.86% 2.20% Diff
AL
579 38.7%
60.8% 0.5% -22.1%
3.7% 16
5 0.4
16
42.6% 56.8%
0.6% 7.1%
AK
202 40.1%
56.9% 3.0% -16.8%
3.7% 6
2 0.2
6
44.0% 53.0% 2.9%
7.2%
AZ
1127 42.5% 51.1%
6.4% -8.6%
2.7% 23
8 0.6
34
46.2% 47.5%
6.3% 7.1%
AR
747 60.0%
40.0% 0.0% 19.9%
3.1% 18 6
0.5 31
64.5% 35.5%
0.1% 9.7%
CA
6236 56.9% 39.8%
3.3% 17.2%
3.4% 158
53 4.2
248
61.3% 35.4%
3.3% 9.3%
CO
1371 53.1% 41.7%
5.2% 11.4%
2.6% 27
9 0.7
51
57.2% 37.7%
5.1% 8.5%
CT
1079 60.4% 39.0%
0.6% 21.4%
2.9% 23
8 0.6
46
64.9% 34.5%
0.6% 9.6%
DE
509 38.7%
57.2% 4.1% -18.5%
3.5% 13 4
0.4 14
42.5% 53.4%
4.1% 6.9%
FL
3727 40.2% 58.0%
1.8% -17.8% 3.1%
88 29
2.3 105
43.9% 54.2%
1.8% 7.0%
GA
1916 41.7% 58.3%
0.0% -16.6% 4.0%
58 19
1.5 56
45.8% 54.2%
0.1% 7.5%
HI
338 65.1%
34.9% 0.0% 30.2%
6.4% 16 5
0.4 15
69.9% 30.0%
0.1% 11.6%
ID
435 39.8%
55.9% 4.4% -16.1%
2.3% 8
3 0.2
12 43.3%
52.4% 4.3% 6.6%
IL
3127 55.4% 44.2%
0.4% 11.2%
3.2% 75
25 2.0
121
59.7% 39.8%
0.5% 9.1%
IN
1646 48.8% 49.9%
1.3% -1.1%
2.7% 33
11 0.9
56
52.8% 45.9%
1.4% 7.9%
IA
1028 47.7% 50.6%
1.8% -2.9%
2.3% 18
6 0.5
34
51.5% 46.7%
1.8% 7.6%
KS
827 43.7%
54.4% 1.9% -10.8%
2.7% 16
5 0.4
25
47.4% 50.6%
1.9% 7.2%
KY
1244 47.9% 49.0%
3.1% -1.0%
2.6% 24
8 0.6
42
51.8% 45.1%
3.1% 7.8%
LA
901 32.6%
64.4% 3.0% -31.7%
4.2% 28
9 0.7
21
36.5% 60.6%
3.0% 6.4%
ME
529 65.2%
30.4% 4.3% 34.8%
2.2% 9
3 0.2
24 69.9%
25.8% 4.3% 10.0%
MD
1344 61.6% 35.3%
3.1% 26.3%
4.1% 41
14 1.1
58
66.2% 30.8%
3.0% 10.2%
MA
1068 74.3% 18.5%
7.2% 55.7%
2.8% 22
7 0.6
56
79.3% 13.6%
7.1% 11.5%
MI
3516 51.0% 46.2%
2.8% 4.7%
3.1% 83 28
2.2 126
55.2% 42.1%
2.7% 8.4%
MN
2178 53.0% 42.5%
4.5% 10.5%
2.6% 42
14 1.1
81
57.1% 38.4%
4.5% 8.5%
MS
581 43.2%
50.8% 6.0% -7.6%
4.3% 19 6
0.5 18
47.4% 46.8%
5.9% 7.9%
MO
2050 47.1% 50.3%
2.6% -3.2% 2.9%
45 15
1.2 68
51.0% 46.4%
2.6% 7.8%
MT
805 39.0%
59.1% 1.9% -20.1%
2.5% 15
5 0.4
22
42.5% 55.6%
1.9% 6.6%
NE
586 43.9%
56.1% 0.0% -12.3%
2.5% 11
4 0.3
18 47.6%
52.4% 0.0% 7.2%
NV
573 50.1%
45.2% 4.7%
4.9% 3.0%
13 4
0.3 20
54.2% 41.2%
4.6% 8.3%
NH
402 52.0%
47.0% 1.0%
5.0% 2.2%
7
2 0.2 15
56.0% 43.0%
1.0% 8.2%
NJ
1859 51.0% 47.6%
1.3% 3.4%
3.4% 47 16
1.3 66
55.3% 43.4%
1.4% 8.5%
NM
545 55.8%
44.2% 0.0% 11.6%
2.9% 12
4 0.3
21
60.1% 39.9%
0.1% 9.0%
NY
3561 64.2% 35.6%
0.2% 28.6%
3.6% 95
32 2.5
160
68.8% 30.9% 0.3%
10.4%
NC
1842 50.8% 49.2%
0.0% 1.5%
3.6% 49 16
1.3 65
55.0% 44.9%
0.1% 8.6%
ND
433 65.6%
34.4% 0.0% 31.2%
2.5% 8
3 0.2
20 70.3%
29.7% 0.0% 10.2%
OH
3763 52.4% 47.4%
0.2% 4.9%
2.9% 82 27
2.2 138
56.5% 43.2%
0.3% 8.5%
OK
905 41.2%
57.2% 1.5% -16.0%
3.3% 22
7 0.6
26
45.0% 53.4%
1.6% 7.2%
OR
1264 56.4% 41.4%
2.2% 15.0%
2.5% 24
8 0.6
50
60.7% 37.1%
2.2% 8.9%
PA
3815 54.0% 44.7%
1.3% 9.3%
2.8% 81
27 2.2
144
58.2% 40.4%
1.3% 8.7%
RI
372 71.0%
11.3% 17.7% 59.7%
2.7% 7
2 0.2
18
75.9%
6.8% 17.3% 11.0%
SC
1072 43.5% 55.3%
1.2% -11.8% 3.9%
32 11
0.8 33
47.6% 51.2%
1.2% 7.7%
SD
667 69.1%
29.4% 1.5% 39.7%
2.7% 13 4
0.4 32
73.9% 24.5%
1.5% 10.7%
TN
1712 50.2% 46.6%
3.2% 3.7%
3.1% 40
13 1.1
60 54.4%
42.5% 3.2% 8.3%
TX
3994 44.6% 51.8%
3.6% -7.2%
3.0% 90
30 2.4
125
48.5% 48.0%
3.5% 7.5%
UT
549 42.6%
51.5% 5.8% -8.9%
2.4% 10
3 0.3
16
46.3% 48.0%
5.7% 7.0%
VT
524 53.2%
44.7% 2.1%
8.6% 2.2%
9 3
0.2 20
57.3% 40.6%
2.1% 8.4%
VA
2148 37.7% 56.8%
5.5% -19.1% 3.6%
57 19
1.5 57
41.5% 53.1%
5.4% 6.8%
WA
1309 61.3% 38.1%
0.5% 23.2%
2.9% 28
9 0.8
56
65.9% 33.6%
0.6% 9.7%
WV
446 57.8%
42.2% 0.0% 15.7%
2.3% 8
3 0.2
18
62.2% 37.8%
0.0% 9.0%
WI
1852 54.0% 45.1%
0.8% 8.9%
2.6% 36 12
1.0 70
58.2% 40.9%
0.8% 8.6%
WY
377 48.8%
49.3% 1.9% -0.5%
2.3% 7
2 0.2
13
52.7% 45.4%
1.9% 7.8%
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