2008 Election Calculator: A Comprehensive Sensitivity Analysis
Election models consist of recorded data, assumptions (parameters), and calculations. Given that the mathematical logic in the 2008 Election Calculator (EC) is correct, the assumptions should be realistic in order to determine the True Vote. The EC base case assumptions are the best estimates derived from the following data sources: 2008 National Exit Poll and 2004 unadjusted aggregate state exit polls, 2004 and 2008 official recorded vote, voter mortality tables, historical returning voter turnout percentages, Census total votes cast. Due to the margin of error in the data and assumptions, a thorough examination of the effects of changes in the assumptions on the vote share is necessary in order to have confidence in the model.
The Final 2008 National Exit Poll vote shares of returning 2004 and new voters are used as the base case. Since the shares were used to match the recorded vote, it makes perfect sense to use them for the base case. The model calculates the returning voter mix based on plausible, documented assumptions for 2004 uncounted votes, voter mortality and voter turnout in 2008. Along with the vote shares, the assumptions comprise the full base case in the sensitivity analysis.
The EC contains a comprehensive set of 12 sensitivity analysis
tables. Each 5x5 table displays vote share and margin for 25
combinations of two input data assumptions. It is very likely that the True
Vote is represented in one of the 25 cells. The base case is located in the
central cell. The range of plausible True vote shares is reduced by focusing on
the input combinations that lie within the margin of error. For example, Table
1 contains two input variables: the Obama share of Kerry and Bush voters. They
range over the intervals 85-93% and 13-21% in increments of 2%. The base case
Obama True vote share is found in the central cell, where the base case
assumptions intersect (89% Kerry; 17% Bush)
To analyze the effect of incremental changes in the
assumptions, compare the base case vote share and margin (central cell) to the
adjacent cells. The least likely combinations are in the lower left (worst
case) and upper right (best case) cells.
These are the base
case assumption estimates:
1) The US Census determined that 2.74% (3.45m) of 125.74m votes cast in 2004 were uncounted.
2) 3.0% of votes cast in 2008 will be uncounted.
3) Obama and Kerry each won approximately 75% of the uncounted vote (over 50% of uncounted votes are in minority districts).
4) 1.2% annual voter mortality (18+ years old).
5) 95% of Kerry, Bush and Other voters still living in 2008 turned out to vote.
6) 2008 Final NEP vote shares. Approximately 4000 respondents (2% MoE for vote shares depending on the margin).
For those who believe the 2004 election was legitimate:
Scenario 1: The returning 2004 voter mix is based on the Recorded Vote (Bush 50.73-Kerry 48.27%)
For those who believe the 2004 election was stolen:
Scenario 2: The returning 2004 voter mix is based on the Unadjusted Exit Poll (Kerry 52.0-Bush 47.0%)
The tables display
the Obama vote share and margin over a range of:
Table 1- Obama share of New and Kerry voters
Table 2- Obama share of New and Bush voters
Table 3- Uncounted vote rates and Obama share of Kerry voters
Table 4- Uncounted vote rates and Obama share of Bush voters
Table 5- Voter mortality rates and Obama share of Kerry voters
Table 6- Voter mortality rates and Obama share of Bush voters
Table 7- Kerry vote shares and Obama share of Kerry voters
Table 8- Kerry vote shares and Obama share of Bush voters
Table 9- Voter mortality rates and Kerry Turnout
Table 10- Voter mortality rates and Bush Turnout
Table 11- Obama share of Kerry and Bush voters
Table 12- Kerry share of uncounted vote and Obama share of
Bush voters
Scenario 1: 2004 recorded vote (Bush 50.7- Kerry 48.3%)
Obama base case margin: 17.7m (55.6%)
Scenario 2: unadjusted 2004 exit poll (Kerry 52.0-Bush 47.0%)
Obama base case margin: 22.6m (57.5%)
Effect of a 1% change in Election Calculator model assumptions on the Obama vote margin (in millions):
Variable: change in margin
Obama share of Kerry voters: 1.2
Obama share of Bush voters: 1.1
Obama share of new voters: 0.9
Kerry voter turnout: 0.2
Voter mortality (4-year): 0.2
Kerry vote share: 1.5
Effect of a 5% change in the Kerry share of uncounted votes: 0.2
Examples of the
effect of other changes in assumptions (Scenario 2):
The base case Obama True Vote share is 57.5% (22.6m vote margin).
The base case assumes that returning Kerry and Bush voter turnout in 2008 was 95%.
What if 91% of Kerry voters and 99% of Bush voters returned to vote?
The effect on the Obama vote share is minimal: 57.1%
(21.4m margin, a 1.2m decrease).
The base case assumes that annual voter mortality was 1.2% (4.8% over 4 years).
What if the mortality rate was 0.8% (3.2% over 4 years)?
The effect on the Obama vote share is minimal: 57.3%
(22.0m margin, a .60m decrease).
The base case Obama share of Kerry voters is 89% (National Exit Poll).
What if the Obama share was actually 87%?
The Obama vote share would be 56.6% (20.2m margin, a 2.4m
decrease).
The MoE is 1.14% for the Obama 89% share (4195 sample, assuming a 20% cluster effect) .
The probability of the 2% deviation is 1 in 3500.
Scenario
1: 2004 Recorded Vote
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Dec. 23, 2008 |
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Recorded |
63.444 |
56.126 |
1.636 |
121.207 |
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(11/04/08) |
52.34% |
46.31% |
1.35% |
100.00% |
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Kerry
True Vote (default) |
53.26% |
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1 |
48.27% |
50.73% |
1.00% |
100.00% |
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2 |
52.00% |
47.00% |
1.00% |
100.00% |
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2004 |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Total |
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Recorded |
59.027 |
62.040 |
1.228 |
122.295 |
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2008 |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Total |
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Recorded |
59.027 |
62.040 |
1.228 |
122.295 |
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True Vote |
75.43 |
57.77 |
2.23 |
135.43 |
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48.266% |
50.730% |
1.004% |
100% |
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55.69% |
42.66% |
1.65% |
100% |
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Uncounted |
(3.05) |
(0.98) |
(0.04) |
(4.06) |
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Uncounted |
2.58 |
0.83 |
0.03 |
3.45 |
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Adjusted |
72.38 |
56.80 |
2.19 |
131.37 |
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75.0% |
24.0% |
1.0% |
2.74% |
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Switched |
(2.92) |
3.14 |
(0.21) |
131.37 |
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Rate |
-3.9% |
5.4% |
-9.5% |
0.0% |
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True Vote |
61.61 |
62.87 |
1.26 |
125.74 |
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Recorded |
69.457 |
59.935 |
1.978 |
131.370 |
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49.0% |
50.0% |
1.0% |
100% |
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(12/19/08) |
52.87% |
45.62% |
1.51% |
100.00% |
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Estimated |
2008 NEP |
2004 NEP |
2004 NEP |
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Uncounted |
% of total |
(in mil.) |
Total Cast |
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Obama |
Share |
Final |
12:22am |
Final |
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2008 |
3.00% |
4.06 |
135.43 |
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DNV |
71% |
71% |
57% |
54% |
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2004 |
2.74% |
3.45 |
125.74 |
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Kerry |
89% |
89% |
91% |
90% |
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Bush |
17% |
17% |
10% |
9% |
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2004 Unctd |
Share |
2008 Unctd |
Share |
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Other |
66% |
66% |
64% |
71% |
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Kerry |
75% |
Obama |
75% |
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Bush |
24% |
McCain |
24% |
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McCain |
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Other |
1% |
Other |
1% |
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DNV |
27% |
27% |
41% |
45% |
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Kerry |
9% |
9% |
8% |
10% |
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2004 Annual Voter
Mortality |
1.20% |
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Bush |
82% |
82% |
90% |
91% |
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Total Died |
6.04 |
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Other |
24% |
24% |
17% |
21% |
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Other |
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2004 Voter Turnout in
2008 |
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DNV |
2% |
2% |
2% |
1% |
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Kerry |
95% |
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Kerry |
2% |
2% |
1% |
0% |
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Bush |
95% |
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Bush |
1% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
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Other |
95% |
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Other |
10% |
10% |
19% |
8% |
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2004 Recorded |
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2008 |
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Calculated
True Vote |
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Recorded |
Uncounted |
Cast |
Deaths |
Alive |
Turnout |
Voted |
Mix |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
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DNV |
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21.71 |
16.0% |
71% |
27% |
2% |
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Kerry |
59.03 |
2.58 |
61.61 |
2.96 |
58.65 |
95% |
55.72 |
41.1% |
89% |
9% |
2% |
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Bush |
62.04 |
0.83 |
62.87 |
3.02 |
59.85 |
95% |
56.86 |
42.0% |
17% |
82% |
1% |
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Other |
1.23 |
0.03 |
1.26 |
0.06 |
1.20 |
95% |
1.14 |
0.84% |
66% |
24% |
10% |
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Total |
122.30 |
3.45 |
125.74 |
6.04 |
119.70 |
113.7 |
135.43 |
100% |
55.69% |
42.66% |
1.65% |
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Cast |
135.43 |
75.43 |
57.77 |
2.23 |
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Recorded |
52.87% |
45.62% |
1.51% |
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131.37 |
69.46 |
59.94 |
1.98 |
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Sensitivity
Analysis |
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Scenario
1 |
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2004
recorded |
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Table 1.1 |
Obama
vote share |
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Table 1.2 |
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Share of Kerry |
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Share of Bush |
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Share
of New |
85% |
87% |
89% |
91% |
93% |
Share
of New |
13% |
15% |
17% |
19% |
21% |
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75% |
54.7% |
55.5% |
56.3% |
57.2% |
58.0% |
75% |
54.7% |
55.5% |
56.3% |
57.2% |
58.0% |
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73% |
54.4% |
55.2% |
56.0% |
56.8% |
57.7% |
73% |
54.3% |
55.2% |
56.0% |
56.9% |
57.7% |
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71% |
54.0% |
54.9% |
55.7% |
56.5% |
57.3% |
71% |
54.0% |
54.9% |
55.7% |
56.5% |
57.4% |
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69% |
53.7% |
54.5% |
55.4% |
56.2% |
57.0% |
69% |
53.7% |
54.5% |
55.4% |
56.2% |
57.1% |
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67% |
53.4% |
54.2% |
55.1% |
55.9% |
56.7% |
67% |
53.4% |
54.2% |
55.1% |
55.9% |
56.7% |
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Obama Margin |
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75% |
14.9 |
17.2 |
19.4 |
21.6 |
23.8 |
75% |
14.8 |
17.1 |
19.4 |
21.7 |
23.9 |
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73% |
14.1 |
16.3 |
18.5 |
20.8 |
23.0 |
73% |
14.0 |
16.2 |
18.5 |
20.8 |
23.1 |
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71% |
13.2 |
15.4 |
17.7 |
19.9 |
22.1 |
71% |
13.1 |
15.4 |
17.7 |
19.9 |
22.2 |
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69% |
12.3 |
14.6 |
16.8 |
19.0 |
21.2 |
69% |
12.2 |
14.5 |
16.8 |
19.1 |
21.3 |
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67% |
11.5 |
13.7 |
15.9 |
18.1 |
20.4 |
67% |
11.4 |
13.6 |
15.9 |
18.2 |
20.5 |
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Table 1.3 |
Obama
vote share |
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Table 1.4 |
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Share of Kerry |
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Share of Bush |
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Uncounted
Rate |
85% |
87% |
89% |
91% |
93% |
Uncounted
Rate |
13% |
15% |
17% |
19% |
21% |
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4% |
54.2% |
55.0% |
55.9% |
56.7% |
57.5% |
4% |
54.2% |
55.0% |
55.9% |
56.7% |
57.5% |
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3% |
54.0% |
54.9% |
55.7% |
56.5% |
57.3% |
3% |
54.0% |
54.9% |
55.7% |
56.5% |
57.4% |
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2% |
53.9% |
54.7% |
55.5% |
56.4% |
57.2% |
2% |
53.8% |
54.7% |
55.5% |
56.4% |
57.2% |
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1% |
53.7% |
54.5% |
55.4% |
56.2% |
57.1% |
1% |
53.7% |
54.5% |
55.4% |
56.2% |
57.1% |
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0% |
53.5% |
54.4% |
55.2% |
56.1% |
56.9% |
0% |
53.5% |
54.4% |
55.2% |
56.1% |
57.0% |
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Obama
Margin |
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4% |
13.8 |
16.0 |
18.3 |
20.5 |
22.7 |
4% |
13.7 |
16.0 |
18.3 |
20.5 |
22.8 |
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3% |
13.2 |
15.4 |
17.7 |
19.9 |
22.1 |
3% |
13.1 |
15.4 |
17.7 |
19.9 |
22.2 |
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2% |
12.6 |
14.8 |
17.0 |
19.3 |
21.5 |
2% |
12.5 |
14.8 |
17.0 |
19.3 |
21.6 |
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1% |
12.0 |
14.2 |
16.4 |
18.7 |
20.9 |
1% |
11.9 |
14.2 |
16.4 |
18.7 |
21.0 |
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0% |
11.4 |
13.6 |
15.9 |
18.1 |
20.3 |
0% |
11.3 |
13.6 |
15.9 |
18.1 |
20.4 |
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Table 1.5 |
Obama
vote share |
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Table 1.6 |
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Share of Kerry |
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Share of Bush |
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Mortality
Rate |
85% |
87% |
89% |
91% |
93% |
Mortality
Rate |
13% |
15% |
17% |
19% |
21% |
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1.6% |
54.3% |
55.1% |
56.0% |
56.8% |
57.6% |
1.6% |
54.3% |
55.1% |
56.0% |
56.8% |
57.6% |
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1.4% |
54.2% |
55.0% |
55.8% |
56.6% |
57.5% |
1.4% |
54.2% |
55.0% |
55.8% |
56.7% |
57.5% |
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1.2% |
54.0% |
54.9% |
55.7% |
56.5% |
57.3% |
1.2% |
54.0% |
54.9% |
55.7% |
56.5% |
57.4% |
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1.0% |
53.9% |
54.7% |
55.6% |
56.4% |
57.2% |
1.0% |
53.9% |
54.7% |
55.6% |
56.4% |
57.3% |
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0.8% |
53.8% |
54.6% |
55.4% |
56.3% |
57.1% |
0.8% |
53.7% |
54.6% |
55.4% |
56.3% |
57.1% |
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Obama
Margin |
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1.6% |
14.0 |
16.2 |
18.4 |
20.5 |
22.7 |
1.6% |
13.9 |
16.1 |
18.4 |
20.6 |
22.8 |
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1.4% |
13.6 |
15.8 |
18.0 |
20.2 |
22.4 |
1.4% |
13.5 |
15.8 |
18.0 |
20.3 |
22.5 |
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1.2% |
13.2 |
15.4 |
17.7 |
19.9 |
22.1 |
1.2% |
13.1 |
15.4 |
17.7 |
19.9 |
22.2 |
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1.0% |
12.8 |
15.1 |
17.3 |
19.5 |
21.8 |
1.0% |
12.7 |
15.0 |
17.3 |
19.6 |
21.9 |
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0.8% |
12.4 |
14.7 |
16.9 |
19.2 |
21.5 |
0.8% |
12.3 |
14.6 |
16.9 |
19.3 |
21.6 |
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Table 1.7 |
Obama
vote share |
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Table 1.8 |
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Share of Kerry |
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Share of Bush |
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Kerry
Vote |
85% |
87% |
89% |
91% |
93% |
Kerry
Vote |
13% |
15% |
17% |
19% |
21% |
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53% |
56.7% |
57.6% |
58.5% |
59.4% |
60.3% |
53% |
57.0% |
57.7% |
58.5% |
59.2% |
60.0% |
|
52% |
56.1% |
57.0% |
57.9% |
58.8% |
59.7% |
52% |
56.3% |
57.1% |
57.9% |
58.7% |
59.4% |
|
51% |
55.6% |
56.4% |
57.3% |
58.2% |
59.0% |
51% |
55.7% |
56.5% |
57.3% |
58.1% |
58.9% |
|
50% |
55.0% |
55.9% |
56.7% |
57.6% |
58.4% |
50% |
55.1% |
55.9% |
56.7% |
57.5% |
58.3% |
|
49% |
54.5% |
55.3% |
56.1% |
57.0% |
57.8% |
49% |
54.5% |
55.3% |
56.1% |
57.0% |
57.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obama
Margin |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
53% |
20.4 |
22.8 |
25.2 |
27.7 |
30.1 |
53% |
21.1 |
23.2 |
25.2 |
27.3 |
29.4 |
|
52% |
18.9 |
21.2 |
23.6 |
26.0 |
28.4 |
52% |
19.4 |
21.5 |
23.6 |
25.8 |
27.9 |
|
51% |
17.3 |
19.7 |
22.0 |
24.4 |
26.7 |
51% |
17.7 |
19.9 |
22.0 |
24.2 |
26.3 |
|
50% |
15.8 |
18.1 |
20.4 |
22.7 |
25.0 |
50% |
16.0 |
18.2 |
20.4 |
22.6 |
24.8 |
|
49% |
14.3 |
16.6 |
18.8 |
21.1 |
23.4 |
49% |
14.3 |
16.6 |
18.8 |
21.1 |
23.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 1.9 |
Obama
vote share |
|
|
|
Table 1.10 |
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Kerry
turnout (Bush turnout is 95%) |
|
|
|
|
Bush
turnout (Kerry turnout is 95%) |
|
|
||
|
Mortality
Rate |
91% |
93% |
95% |
97% |
99% |
Mortality
Rate |
91% |
93% |
95% |
97% |
99% |
|
1.6% |
55.6% |
55.8% |
56.0% |
56.1% |
56.3% |
1.6% |
56.9% |
56.4% |
56.0% |
55.5% |
55.0% |
|
1.4% |
55.5% |
55.7% |
55.8% |
56.0% |
56.1% |
1.4% |
56.8% |
56.3% |
55.8% |
55.3% |
54.9% |
|
1.2% |
55.4% |
55.5% |
55.7% |
55.8% |
56.0% |
1.2% |
56.6% |
56.2% |
55.7% |
55.2% |
54.7% |
|
1.0% |
55.3% |
55.4% |
55.6% |
55.7% |
55.9% |
1.0% |
56.5% |
56.0% |
55.6% |
55.1% |
54.6% |
|
0.8% |
55.1% |
55.3% |
55.4% |
55.6% |
55.8% |
0.8% |
56.4% |
55.9% |
55.4% |
55.0% |
54.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obama
Margin |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.6% |
17.5 |
17.9 |
18.4 |
18.8 |
19.2 |
1.6% |
20.9 |
19.6 |
18.4 |
17.1 |
15.8 |
|
1.4% |
17.2 |
17.6 |
18.0 |
18.4 |
18.8 |
1.4% |
20.6 |
19.3 |
18.0 |
16.7 |
15.4 |
|
1.2% |
16.8 |
17.2 |
17.7 |
18.1 |
18.5 |
1.2% |
20.3 |
19.0 |
17.7 |
16.3 |
15.0 |
|
1.0% |
16.4 |
16.9 |
17.3 |
17.7 |
18.2 |
1.0% |
19.9 |
18.6 |
17.3 |
16.0 |
14.7 |
|
0.8% |
16.1 |
16.5 |
16.9 |
17.4 |
17.8 |
0.8% |
19.6 |
18.3 |
16.9 |
15.6 |
14.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 1.11 |
Obama
vote share |
|
|
Table 1.12 |
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share of Kerry |
|
|
|
|
|
Kerry Share of Uncounted |
|
|
|
|
Share
of Bush |
85% |
87% |
89% |
91% |
93% |
Share
of Bush |
52% |
70% |
75% |
80% |
90% |
|
21% |
55.7% |
56.5% |
57.4% |
58.2% |
59.0% |
21% |
57.0% |
57.3% |
57.4% |
57.5% |
57.6% |
|
19% |
54.9% |
55.7% |
56.5% |
57.4% |
58.2% |
19% |
56.2% |
56.5% |
56.5% |
56.6% |
56.8% |
|
17% |
54.0% |
54.9% |
55.7% |
56.5% |
57.3% |
17% |
55.3% |
55.6% |
55.7% |
55.8% |
55.9% |
|
15% |
53.2% |
54.0% |
54.9% |
55.7% |
56.5% |
15% |
54.5% |
54.8% |
54.9% |
54.9% |
55.1% |
|
13% |
52.4% |
53.2% |
54.0% |
54.8% |
55.7% |
13% |
53.6% |
53.9% |
54.0% |
54.1% |
54.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obama
Margin |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
21% |
17.7 |
20.0 |
22.2 |
24.4 |
26.7 |
21% |
21.2 |
22.0 |
22.2 |
22.4 |
22.8 |
|
19% |
15.5 |
17.7 |
19.9 |
22.2 |
24.4 |
19% |
18.9 |
19.7 |
19.9 |
20.1 |
20.6 |
|
17% |
13.2 |
15.4 |
17.7 |
19.9 |
22.1 |
17% |
16.6 |
17.4 |
17.7 |
17.9 |
18.3 |
|
15% |
10.9 |
13.1 |
15.4 |
17.6 |
19.8 |
15% |
14.3 |
15.1 |
15.4 |
15.6 |
16.1 |
|
13% |
8.6 |
10.9 |
13.1 |
15.3 |
17.6 |
13% |
12.0 |
12.9 |
13.1 |
13.3 |
13.8 |
|
2008 Election
Calculator |
|
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|
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|
Dec. 23, 2008 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Recorded |
63.444 |
56.126 |
1.636 |
121.207 |
|
|
|
|
|
(11/04/08) |
52.34% |
46.31% |
1.35% |
100.00% |
|
|||
|
Kerry True Vote (default) |
53.26% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
48.27% |
50.73% |
1.00% |
100.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
2 |
52.00% |
47.00% |
1.00% |
100.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2004 |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Recorded |
59.027 |
62.040 |
1.228 |
122.295 |
|
2008 |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Total |
|
|
Exit Poll |
63.593 |
57.474 |
1.228 |
122.295 |
|
True Vote |
77.88 |
55.28 |
2.27 |
135.43 |
|
|
|
52.0% |
47.0% |
1.0% |
100% |
|
|
57.51% |
40.82% |
1.67% |
100% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Uncounted |
(3.05) |
(0.98) |
(0.04) |
(4.06) |
|
|
Uncounted |
1.79 |
1.62 |
0.03 |
3.45 |
|
Adjusted |
74.84 |
54.31 |
2.22 |
131.37 |
|
|
|
52.0% |
47.0% |
1.0% |
2.74% |
|
Switched |
(5.38) |
5.63 |
(0.25) |
131.37 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rate |
-6.9% |
10.2% |
-10.9% |
0.0% |
|
|
True Vote |
65.38 |
59.09 |
1.26 |
125.74 |
|
Recorded |
69.457 |
59.935 |
1.978 |
131.370 |
|
|
|
52.0% |
47.0% |
1.0% |
100% |
|
(12/19/08) |
52.87% |
45.62% |
1.51% |
100.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Estimated |
2008 NEP |
2004 NEP |
2004 NEP |
|
|
Uncounted |
% of total |
(in mil.) |
Total Cast |
|
|
Obama |
Share |
Final |
12:22am |
Final |
|
|
2008 |
3.00% |
4.06 |
135.43 |
|
|
DNV |
71% |
71% |
57% |
54% |
|
|
2004 |
2.74% |
3.45 |
125.74 |
|
|
Kerry |
89% |
89% |
91% |
90% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bush |
17% |
17% |
10% |
9% |
|
|
2004 Unctd |
Share |
2008 Unctd |
Share |
|
|
Other |
66% |
66% |
64% |
71% |
|
|
Kerry |
75% |
Obama |
75% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bush |
24% |
McCain |
24% |
|
|
McCain |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other |
1% |
Other |
1% |
|
|
DNV |
27% |
27% |
41% |
45% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Kerry |
9% |
9% |
8% |
10% |
|
|
2004 Annual Voter
Mortality |
1.20% |
|
|
|
Bush |
82% |
82% |
90% |
91% |
|
|
|
|
Total Died |
6.04 |
|
|
|
Other |
24% |
24% |
17% |
21% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2004 Voter Turnout in
2008 |
|
|
|
|
DNV |
2% |
2% |
2% |
1% |
|
|
|
Kerry |
95% |
|
|
|
|
Kerry |
2% |
2% |
1% |
0% |
|
|
Bush |
95% |
|
|
|
|
Bush |
1% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
|
|
Other |
95% |
|
|
|
|
Other |
10% |
10% |
19% |
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2004 Unadjusted State
Exit Poll Aggregate (WPE/IMS) |
|
2008 |
|
Calculated
True Vote |
|
|
||||
|
|
Exit Poll |
Uncounted |
Cast |
Deaths |
Alive |
Turnout |
Voted |
Mix |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
|
DNV |
|
|
|
|
|
|
21.71 |
16.0% |
71% |
27% |
2% |
|
Kerry |
63.59 |
1.79 |
65.38 |
3.14 |
62.25 |
95% |
59.13 |
43.7% |
89% |
9% |
2% |
|
Bush |
57.47 |
1.62 |
59.09 |
2.84 |
56.26 |
95% |
53.44 |
39.5% |
17% |
82% |
1% |
|
Other |
1.23 |
0.03 |
1.26 |
0.06 |
1.20 |
95% |
1.14 |
0.84% |
66% |
24% |
10% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
122.30 |
3.45 |
125.74 |
6.04 |
119.70 |
113.7 |
135.43 |
100% |
57.51% |
40.82% |
1.67% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cast |
135.43 |
77.88 |
55.28 |
2.27 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Recorded |
52.87% |
45.62% |
1.51% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
131.37 |
69.46 |
59.94 |
1.98 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sensitivity
Analysis |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Scenario 2 |
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
2004 Exit Poll |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 2.1 |
Obama
vote share |
|
|
Table 2.2 |
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share of Kerry |
|
|
|
|
|
Share of Bush |
|
|
|
|
Share
of New |
85% |
87% |
89% |
91% |
93% |
Share
of New |
13% |
15% |
17% |
19% |
21% |
|
75% |
56.4% |
57.3% |
58.1% |
59.0% |
59.9% |
75% |
56.6% |
57.4% |
58.1% |
58.9% |
59.7% |
|
73% |
56.1% |
57.0% |
57.8% |
58.7% |
59.6% |
73% |
56.3% |
57.0% |
57.8% |
58.6% |
59.4% |
|
71% |
55.8% |
56.6% |
57.5% |
58.4% |
59.3% |
71% |
55.9% |
56.7% |
57.5% |
58.3% |
59.1% |
|
69% |
55.4% |
56.3% |
57.2% |
58.1% |
58.9% |
69% |
55.6% |
56.4% |
57.2% |
58.0% |
58.8% |
|
67% |
55.1% |
56.0% |
56.9% |
57.7% |
58.6% |
67% |
55.3% |
56.1% |
56.9% |
57.7% |
58.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obama
Margin |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
75% |
19.6 |
22.0 |
24.3 |
26.7 |
29.1 |
75% |
20.1 |
22.2 |
24.3 |
26.5 |
28.6 |
|
73% |
18.7 |
21.1 |
23.5 |
25.8 |
28.2 |
73% |
19.2 |
21.3 |
23.5 |
25.6 |
27.7 |
|
71% |
17.9 |
20.2 |
22.6 |
25.0 |
27.3 |
71% |
18.3 |
20.5 |
22.6 |
24.7 |
26.9 |
|
69% |
17.0 |
19.4 |
21.7 |
24.1 |
26.5 |
69% |
17.5 |
19.6 |
21.7 |
23.9 |
26.0 |
|
67% |
16.1 |
18.5 |
20.9 |
23.2 |
25.6 |
67% |
16.6 |
18.7 |
20.9 |
23.0 |
25.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 2.3 |
Obama
vote share |
|
|
Table 2.4 |
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share of Kerry |
|
|
|
|
|
Share of Bush |
|
|
|
|
Uncounted
Rate |
85% |
87% |
89% |
91% |
93% |
Uncounted
Rate |
13% |
15% |
17% |
19% |
21% |
|
4% |
55.9% |
56.8% |
57.6% |
58.5% |
59.4% |
4% |
56.1% |
56.9% |
57.6% |
58.4% |
59.2% |
|
3% |
55.8% |
56.6% |
57.5% |
58.4% |
59.3% |
3% |
55.9% |
56.7% |
57.5% |
58.3% |
59.1% |
|
2% |
55.6% |
56.5% |
57.4% |
58.3% |
59.1% |
2% |
55.8% |
56.6% |
57.4% |
58.2% |
59.0% |
|
1% |
55.4% |
56.3% |
57.2% |
58.1% |
59.0% |
1% |
55.6% |
56.4% |
57.2% |
58.0% |
58.8% |
|
0% |
55.3% |
56.2% |
57.1% |
58.0% |
58.9% |
0% |
55.5% |
56.3% |
57.1% |
57.9% |
58.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obama
Margin |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4% |
18.5 |
20.9 |
23.2 |
25.6 |
28.0 |
4% |
18.9 |
21.1 |
23.2 |
25.4 |
27.5 |
|
3% |
17.9 |
20.2 |
22.6 |
25.0 |
27.3 |
3% |
18.3 |
20.5 |
22.6 |
24.7 |
26.9 |
|
2% |
17.3 |
19.6 |
22.0 |
24.4 |
26.7 |
2% |
17.7 |
19.9 |
22.0 |
24.1 |
26.3 |
|
1% |
16.7 |
19.0 |
21.4 |
23.8 |
26.1 |
1% |
17.1 |
19.3 |
21.4 |
23.5 |
25.7 |
|
0% |
16.1 |
18.4 |
20.8 |
23.2 |
25.5 |
0% |
16.5 |
18.7 |
20.8 |
23.0 |
25.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 2.5 |
Obama
vote share |
|
|
Table 2.6 |
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share of Kerry |
|
|
|
|
|
Share of Bush |
|
|
|
|
Mortality
Rate |
85% |
87% |
89% |
91% |
93% |
Mortality
Rate |
13% |
15% |
17% |
19% |
21% |
|
1.6% |
56.0% |
56.9% |
57.7% |
58.6% |
59.5% |
1.6% |
56.2% |
57.0% |
57.7% |
58.5% |
59.3% |
|
1.4% |
55.9% |
56.8% |
57.6% |
58.5% |
59.4% |
1.4% |
56.1% |
56.8% |
57.6% |
58.4% |
59.2% |
|
1.2% |
55.8% |
56.6% |
57.5% |
58.4% |
59.3% |
1.2% |
55.9% |
56.7% |
57.5% |
58.3% |
59.1% |
|
1.0% |
55.6% |
56.5% |
57.4% |
58.3% |
59.2% |
1.0% |
55.8% |
56.6% |
57.4% |
58.2% |
59.0% |
|
0.8% |
55.5% |
56.4% |
57.3% |
58.2% |
59.1% |
0.8% |
55.7% |
56.5% |
57.3% |
58.1% |
58.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obama
Margin |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.6% |
18.6 |
20.9 |
23.2 |
25.5 |
27.9 |
1.6% |
19.0 |
21.1 |
23.2 |
25.3 |
27.4 |
|
1.4% |
18.2 |
20.6 |
22.9 |
25.3 |
27.6 |
1.4% |
18.7 |
20.8 |
22.9 |
25.0 |
27.2 |
|
1.2% |
17.9 |
20.2 |
22.6 |
25.0 |
27.3 |
1.2% |
18.3 |
20.5 |
22.6 |
24.7 |
26.9 |
|
1.0% |
17.5 |
19.9 |
22.3 |
24.7 |
27.1 |
1.0% |
18.0 |
20.1 |
22.3 |
24.4 |
26.6 |
|
0.8% |
17.2 |
19.6 |
22.0 |
24.4 |
26.8 |
0.8% |
17.6 |
19.8 |
22.0 |
24.2 |
26.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 2.7 |
Obama
vote share |
|
|
Table 2.8 |
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share of Kerry |
|
|
|
|
|
Share of Bush |
|
|
|
|
Kerry
vote |
85% |
87% |
89% |
91% |
93% |
Kerry
vote |
13% |
15% |
17% |
19% |
21% |
|
53% |
56.3% |
57.2% |
58.1% |
59.0% |
59.9% |
53% |
56.6% |
57.3% |
58.1% |
58.9% |
59.7% |
|
52% |
55.8% |
56.6% |
57.5% |
58.4% |
59.3% |
52% |
55.9% |
56.7% |
57.5% |
58.3% |
59.1% |
|
51% |
55.2% |
56.0% |
56.9% |
57.8% |
58.6% |
51% |
55.3% |
56.1% |
56.9% |
57.7% |
58.5% |
|
50% |
54.6% |
55.5% |
56.3% |
57.1% |
58.0% |
50% |
54.7% |
55.5% |
56.3% |
57.1% |
57.9% |
|
49% |
54.0% |
54.9% |
55.7% |
56.5% |
57.3% |
49% |
54.0% |
54.9% |
55.7% |
56.5% |
57.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obama
Margin |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
53% |
19.4 |
21.8 |
24.3 |
26.7 |
29.1 |
53% |
20.1 |
22.2 |
24.3 |
26.3 |
28.4 |
|
52% |
17.9 |
20.2 |
22.6 |
25.0 |
27.3 |
52% |
18.3 |
20.5 |
22.6 |
24.7 |
26.9 |
|
51% |
16.3 |
18.6 |
21.0 |
23.3 |
25.6 |
51% |
16.6 |
18.8 |
21.0 |
23.1 |
25.3 |
|
50% |
14.8 |
17.0 |
19.3 |
21.6 |
23.9 |
50% |
14.8 |
17.1 |
19.3 |
21.5 |
23.8 |
|
49% |
13.2 |
15.4 |
17.7 |
19.9 |
22.1 |
49% |
13.1 |
15.4 |
17.7 |
19.9 |
22.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 2.9 |
Obama
vote share |
|
|
|
Table 2.10 |
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Kerry
turnout (Bush turnout is 95%) |
|
|
|
|
Bush
turnout (Kerry turnout is 95%) |
|
|
||
|
Mortality Rate |
91% |
93% |
95% |
97% |
99% |
Mortality Rate |
91% |
93% |
95% |
97% |
99% |
|
1.6% |
57.4% |
57.6% |
57.7% |
57.9% |
58.1% |
1.6% |
58.6% |
58.2% |
57.7% |
57.3% |
56.9% |
|
1.4% |
57.3% |
57.5% |
57.6% |
57.8% |
57.9% |
1.4% |
58.5% |
58.1% |
57.6% |
57.2% |
56.7% |
|
1.2% |
57.2% |
57.3% |
57.5% |
57.7% |
57.8% |
1.2% |
58.4% |
58.0% |
57.5% |
57.1% |
56.6% |
|
1.0% |
57.1% |
57.2% |
57.4% |
57.6% |
57.7% |
1.0% |
58.3% |
57.8% |
57.4% |
56.9% |
56.5% |
|
0.8% |
56.9% |
57.1% |
57.3% |
57.4% |
57.6% |
0.8% |
58.2% |
57.7% |
57.3% |
56.8% |
56.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obama
Margin |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.6% |
22.3 |
22.8 |
23.2 |
23.7 |
24.1 |
1.6% |
25.6 |
24.4 |
23.2 |
22.0 |
20.8 |
|
1.4% |
22.0 |
22.5 |
22.9 |
23.4 |
23.8 |
1.4% |
25.3 |
24.1 |
22.9 |
21.7 |
20.5 |
|
1.2% |
21.7 |
22.2 |
22.6 |
23.0 |
23.5 |
1.2% |
25.1 |
23.8 |
22.6 |
21.4 |
20.1 |
|
1.0% |
21.4 |
21.8 |
22.3 |
22.7 |
23.2 |
1.0% |
24.8 |
23.5 |
22.3 |
21.1 |
19.8 |
|
0.8% |
21.1 |
21.5 |
22.0 |
22.4 |
22.9 |
0.8% |
24.5 |
23.2 |
22.0 |
20.7 |
19.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 2.11 |
Obama
vote share |
|
|
Table 2.12 |
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share of Kerry |
|
|
|
|
|
Kerry Share of Uncounted |
|
|
|
|
Share
of Bush |
85% |
87% |
89% |
91% |
93% |
Share
of Bush |
52% |
70% |
75% |
80% |
90% |
|
21% |
57.3% |
58.2% |
59.1% |
60.0% |
60.8% |
21% |
59.1% |
59.1% |
59.1% |
59.1% |
59.1% |
|
19% |
56.6% |
57.4% |
58.3% |
59.2% |
60.0% |
19% |
58.3% |
58.3% |
58.3% |
58.3% |
58.3% |
|
17% |
55.8% |
56.6% |
57.5% |
58.4% |
59.3% |
17% |
57.5% |
57.5% |
57.5% |
57.5% |
57.5% |
|
15% |
55.0% |
55.8% |
56.7% |
57.6% |
58.5% |
15% |
56.7% |
56.7% |
56.7% |
56.7% |
56.7% |
|
13% |
54.2% |
55.1% |
55.9% |
56.8% |
57.7% |
13% |
55.9% |
55.9% |
55.9% |
55.9% |
55.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obama
Margin |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
21% |
22.1 |
24.5 |
26.9 |
29.2 |
31.6 |
21% |
26.9 |
26.9 |
26.9 |
26.9 |
26.9 |
|
19% |
20.0 |
22.4 |
24.7 |
27.1 |
29.5 |
19% |
24.7 |
24.7 |
24.7 |
24.7 |
24.7 |
|
17% |
17.9 |
20.2 |
22.6 |
25.0 |
27.3 |
17% |
22.6 |
22.6 |
22.6 |
22.6 |
22.6 |
|
15% |
15.7 |
18.1 |
20.5 |
22.8 |
25.2 |
15% |
20.5 |
20.5 |
20.5 |
20.5 |
20.5 |
|
13% |
13.6 |
16.0 |
18.3 |
20.7 |
23.1 |
13% |
18.3 |
18.3 |
18.3 |
18.3 |
18.3 |
