A
Post-Election Day Late Vote Anomaly: 10-15% increase in the Democratic margin
TruthIsAll
Jan. 9, 2009
On Election Day, 121.21m votes were recorded. Obama led by 63.44-56.13m
(52.3-46.3%), a 6.0% margin. As of today, 131.37m votes have been recorded.
View the US
Election Atlas. His total recorded margin has increased to 7.5%:
69.46-59.94m (52.87-45.62%).
Obama has a 59.16-37.48% share of the 10.16m votes recorded since Election Day, a 7% increase in vote share and 15% increase in margin. In the last 3 elections, the average Democratic 2-party late vote share was 7% higher than the initial share. Gore and Kerry also had late vote margins that far exceeded their initial Election Day margins.
On Election Day 2004, 116.7m votes were recorded; Bush led
by 51.2-48.3%. Kerry had 54.2% of the 4.8m late 2-party votes, a 10.4%
increase in margin. There were 3.4m uncounted votes.
On Election Day 2000, 102.6m votes were recorded; Gore led by 48.3-48.1% (50.1%
of the 2-party vote). Gore had 55.6% of the 2.7m late 2-party votes, an
11.0% increase in margin. There were 5.4m uncounted votes.
Obama’s late vote share increased over his initial Election Day share in 13 of the18 states that had over 100,000 late votes. The states with the largest number of late votes were CA, WA, CT, NY and OH. Oddly, there was no change Obama’s share in CA and WA, the two West Coast states with the largest number of late votes. On the other hand, his late New York share was 8.5% higher, OH 2.9%, CT 2.1%. These states had significant increases in Obama’s share: OR, CO, MD, VA, NJ, IL and MI (a 26.8% gain).
Unadjusted exit poll data was downloaded for 15 states. In states with over 30,000 late votes, the 2-party exit poll shares closely matched the late vote shares to within 0.2%. if Michigan is excluded (Obama had 89.8% of the 120,000 late votes compared to 60.6% in the exit poll).
Gore won 74% of the 483,000 late votes but only 60% of the initial 6.3 million.
Kerry won 66% of the 499,000 late votes but only 58% of the
initial 6.8 million. The unadjusted exit poll had Kerry at 64%.
Obama won 70.7% of the 584,000 late votes but only 62.2% of
the initial 7.0 million.
(in
millions)
Late Dem Share Initial
Dem Share
2000 0.483 0.36 74% 6.3 3.78 60%
2004 0.499 0.33 66% 6.8 3.94 58%
2008 0.584 0.41 70.7% 7.0 4.34 62.2
Total 1.566 1.10 70.2% 20.1 12.1 60.0%
(in millions)
2008 Total Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
11/4 121.21 63.44 56.13 1.64 52.34% 46.31% 1.35%
Late 2.93 1.73 1.16 0.03 59.17% 39.66% 1.17%
11/11 124.13 65.18 57.29 1.67 52.50% 46.15% 1.35%
Late 2.37 1.40 0.92 0.05 59.20% 38.73% 2.07%
11/12 126.50 66.58 58.20 1.72 52.63% 46.01% 1.36%
Late 0.75 0.45 0.28 0.02 60.38% 36.71% 2.91%
11/17 127.25 67.03 58.48 1.74 52.68% 45.96% 1.37%
Late 0.86 0.53 0.28 0.05 61.88% 32.54% 5.57%
11/21 128.11 67.56 58.76 1.79 52.74% 45.87% 1.40%
Late 1.09 0.59 0.45 0.06 53.65% 41.23% 5.11%
11/30 129.20 68.15 59.21 1.84 52.75% 45.83% 1.43%
Late 2.17 1.31 0.73 0.13 60.38% 33.50% 6.12%
12/18 131.37 69.457 59.935 1.978 52.87% 45.62% 1.51%
Late 10.163 6.013 3.809 0.342 59.16% 37.48% 3.36%
Obama 2-party Late Vote vs. Exit Poll
|
Exit Poll |
|
|
Recorded |
|
Unadj. Exit Poll |
Margin |
EP Diff |
Prob Diff |
Obama 2-party |
|
||
|
States |
Late Votes |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Obama |
McCain |
Diff |
Exceeds |
> MoE |
Exit Poll |
Late Vote |
Exit-Late |
|
|
(thousands) |
52.2 |
46.4 |
1.4 |
54.1 |
44.6 |
3.9 |
MoE? |
0.65% |
54.1 |
60.4 |
(6.2) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FL |
405 |
50.9 |
48.1 |
1 |
52 |
44 |
5.2 |
yes |
0.4% |
54.2 |
54.7 |
(0.5) |
|
GA |
91 |
46.9 |
52.1 |
1 |
47 |
51 |
1.2 |
|
28.3% |
48.0 |
55.0 |
(7.0) |
|
IN |
15 |
49.9 |
48.9 |
1.2 |
52 |
48 |
3 |
|
7.0% |
52.0 |
59.8 |
(7.8) |
|
IA |
13 |
53.9 |
44.4 |
1.7 |
52 |
48 |
-5.3 |
yes |
0.4% |
52.0 |
70.3 |
(18.3) |
|
MI |
120 |
57.4 |
40.9 |
1.7 |
60 |
39 |
4.5 |
yes |
1.4% |
60.6 |
89.8 |
(29.2) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MN |
1.6 |
54.1 |
43.8 |
2.1 |
60 |
39 |
10.8 |
yes |
0.0% |
60.6 |
71.3 |
(10.7) |
|
MO |
10 |
49.3 |
49.4 |
1.4 |
52 |
48 |
4.2 |
yes |
2.0% |
52.0 |
61.7 |
(9.7) |
|
NV |
4 |
55.1 |
42.7 |
2.2 |
55 |
45 |
-2.4 |
|
9.3% |
55.0 |
54.7 |
0.3 |
|
NH |
96 |
54.1 |
44.5 |
1.4 |
52 |
44 |
-1.6 |
|
24.5% |
54.2 |
52.4 |
1.8 |
|
NM |
19 |
56.9 |
41.8 |
1.3 |
56 |
43 |
-1.9 |
|
17.2% |
56.6 |
69.3 |
(12.7) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NC |
38 |
49.7 |
49.4 |
0.9 |
52 |
48 |
3.7 |
|
3.6% |
52.0 |
50.6 |
1.4 |
|
OH |
500 |
51.4 |
46.8 |
1.8 |
54 |
45 |
5.2 |
yes |
0.5% |
54.5 |
56.2 |
(1.7) |
|
PA |
169 |
54.5 |
44.2 |
1.3 |
57 |
42 |
4.8 |
yes |
0.9% |
57.6 |
57.2 |
0.4 |
|
WV |
7 |
42.6 |
55.7 |
1.8 |
45 |
55 |
3.1 |
|
5.2% |
45.0 |
40.9 |
4.1 |
|
WI |
18 |
56.2 |
42.3 |
1.5 |
58 |
42 |
2.1 |
|
17.3% |
58.0 |
61.5 |
(3.5) |
Late Vote Share vs. Election Day Share
All
states Total Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other Obama
Total
Votes 131,370,177 69,457,159 59,935,404 1,977,614 52.87% 45.62% 1.51% Change
in
Election
Day 121,207,153 63,444,462 56,126,680 1,636,011 52.34% 46.31% 1.35% vote
share
Late
Votes 10,163,024 6,012,697 3,808,724 341,603 59.16% 37.48% 3.36% 6.82%
Alabama 8,103 1,969 2,805 3,329 24.3% 34.6% 41.1% -14.5%
Alaska 103,356 43,254 57,493 2,609 41.8% 55.6% 2.5% 5.8%
Arizona 418,506 183,967 217,849 16,690 44.0% 52.1% 4.0% -1.2%
Arkansas 104,212 39,685 62,019 2,508 38.1% 59.5% 2.4% -0.9%
California 3,227,380 1,966,458 1,162,758 98,164 60.9% 36.0% 3.0% 0.0%
Colorado 291,022 179,197 106,592 5,233 61.6% 36.6% 1.8% 9.0%
Connecticut 666,168 412,130 245,487 8,551 61.9% 36.9% 1.3% 2.1%
Delaware 84 65 18 1 77.4% 21.4% 1.2% 15.4%
D. C. 38,299 35,397 2,546 356 92.4% 6.6% 0.9% 0.0%
Florida 404,638 208,867 173,071 22,700 51.6% 42.8% 5.6% 0.7%
Georgia 91,196 44,129 36,168 10,899 48.4% 39.7% 12.0% 1.5%
Hawaii 410 283 120 7 69.0% 29.3% 1.7% -2.8%
Idaho 5,679 1,553 1,651 2,475 27.3% 29.1% 43.6% -8.7%
Illinois 183,474 126,333 55,726 1,415 68.9% 30.4% 0.8% 7.2%
Indiana 15,022 6,775 4,547 3,700 45.1% 30.3% 24.6% -4.8%
Iowa 13,085 9,270 3,913 -98 70.8% 29.9% -0.7% 17.1%
Kansas 32,249 14,896 14,214 3,139 46.2% 44.1% 9.7% 4.8%
Kentucky 1,738 278 349 1,111 16.0% 20.1% 63.9% -25.2%
Louisiana 2,702 2,008 672 22 74.3% 24.9% 0.8% 34.4%
Maine 57,082 32,126 23,632 1,324 56.3% 41.4% 2.3% -1.5%
Maryland 277,296 188,357 84,752 4,187 67.9% 30.6% 1.5% 6.7%
Massachusetts 38,029 18,176 4,853 15,000 47.8% 12.8% 39.4% -14.2%
Michigan 120,644 105,474 11,986 3,184 87.4% 9.9% 2.6% 30.8%
Minnesota 1,646 1,152 463 31 70.0% 28.1% 1.9% 15.9%
Mississippi 77,359 36,763 40,122 474 47.5% 51.9% 0.6% 4.8%
Missouri 9,993 5,166 3,201 1,626 51.7% 32.0% 16.3% 2.5%
Montana 20,103 11,805 6,720 1,578 58.7% 33.4% 7.8% 12.0%
Nebraska 31,474 17,130 13,314 1,030 54.4% 42.3% 3.3% 13.4%
Nevada 4,243 2,267 1,879 97 53.4% 44.3% 2.3% -1.7%
New Hampshire 95,872 47,937 43,596 4,339 50.0% 45.5% 4.5% -4.8%
New
Jersey 224,461 144,760 69,110 10,591 64.5% 30.8% 4.7% 7.8%
New
Mexico 18,730 12,815 5,680 235 68.4% 30.3% 1.3% 11.8%
New York 583,587 412,340 168,930 2,317 70.7% 28.9% 0.4% 8.5%
North Carolina 38,087 19,261 18,776 50 50.6% 49.3% 0.1% 0.9%
North Dakota 1,787 166 79 1,542 9.3% 4.4% 86.3% -35.4%
Ohio 500,457 270,437 210,387 19,633 54.0% 42.0% 3.9% 2.9%
Oklahoma 627 207 420 0 33.0% 67.0% 0.0% -1.3%
Oregon 324,926 209,262 105,406 10,258 64.4% 32.4% 3.2% 9.3%
Pennsylvania 169,363 85,680 64,058 19,625 50.6% 37.8% 11.6% -4.0%
Rhode Island 608 418 172 18 68.8% 28.3% 3.0% 5.6%
South
Carolina 116,785 57,285 58,069 1,431 49.1% 49.7% 1.2% 4.4%
South
Dakota 102 47 55 0 46.1% 53.9% 0.0% 1.3%
Tennessee 18,684 9,288 9,549 -153 49.7% 51.1% -0.8% 7.9%
Texas 27,452 10,551 15,421 1,480 38.4% 56.2% 5.4% -5.2%
Utah 72,828 26,143 40,700 5,985 35.9% 55.9% 8.2% 1.8%
Vermont 51,215 35,827 13,146 2,242 70.0% 25.7% 4.4% 3.0%
Virginia 248,807 162,775 83,298 2,734 65.4% 33.5% 1.1% 13.7%
Washington 1,398,549 802,992 554,621 40,936 57.4% 39.7% 2.9% 0.0%
West Virginia 7,063 2,815 4,074 174 39.9% 57.7% 2.5% -2.7%
Wisconsin 17,764 6,737 4,212 6,815 37.9% 23.7% 38.4% -18.4%
Wyoming 78 24 45 9 30.8% 57.7% 11.5% -1.8%
Late Vote Share vs. Election Day Share
(Sorted by Late Votes)
All
states Total Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other Obama
Total
Votes 131,370,177 69,457,159 59,935,404 1,977,614 52.87% 45.62% 1.51% Change
in
Election
Day 121,207,153 63,444,462 56,126,680 1,636,011 52.34% 46.31% 1.35% vote
share
Late
Votes 10,163,024 6,012,697 3,808,724 341,603 59.16% 37.48% 3.36% 6.82%
California 3,227,380 1,966,458 1,162,758 98,164 60.9% 36.0% 3.0% 0.0%
Washington 1,398,549 802,992 554,621 40,936 57.4% 39.7% 2.9% 0.0%
Connecticut 666,168 412,130 245,487 8,551 61.9% 36.9% 1.3% 2.1%
New
York 583,587 412,340 168,930 2,317 70.7% 28.9% 0.4% 8.5%
Ohio 500,457 270,437 210,387 19,633 54.0% 42.0% 3.9% 2.9%
Arizona 418,506 183,967 217,849 16,690 44.0% 52.1% 4.0% -1.2%
Florida 404,638 208,867 173,071 22,700 51.6% 42.8% 5.6% 0.7%
Oregon 324,926 209,262 105,406 10,258 64.4% 32.4% 3.2% 9.3%
Colorado 291,022 179,197 106,592 5,233 61.6% 36.6% 1.8% 9.0%
Maryland 277,296 188,357 84,752 4,187 67.9% 30.6% 1.5% 6.7%
Virginia 248,807 162,775 83,298 2,734 65.4% 33.5% 1.1% 13.7%
New
Jersey 224,461 144,760 69,110 10,591 64.5% 30.8% 4.7% 7.8%
Illinois 183,474 126,333 55,726 1,415 68.9% 30.4% 0.8% 7.2%
Pennsylvania 169,363 85,680 64,058 19,625 50.6% 37.8% 11.6% -4.0%
Michigan 120,644 105,474 11,986 3,184 87.4% 9.9% 2.6% 30.8%
South
Carolina 116,785 57,285 58,069 1,431 49.1% 49.7% 1.2% 4.4%
Arkansas 104,212 39,685 62,019 2,508 38.1% 59.5% 2.4% -0.9%
Alaska 103,356 43,254 57,493 2,609 41.8% 55.6% 2.5% 5.8%
New
Hampshire 95,872 47,937 43,596 4,339 50.0% 45.5% 4.5% -4.8%
Georgia 91,196 44,129 36,168 10,899 48.4% 39.7% 12.0% 1.5%
Mississippi 77,359 36,763 40,122 474 47.5% 51.9% 0.6% 4.8%
Utah 72,828 26,143 40,700 5,985 35.9% 55.9% 8.2% 1.8%
Maine 57,082 32,126 23,632 1,324 56.3% 41.4% 2.3% -1.5%
Vermont 51,215 35,827 13,146 2,242 70.0% 25.7% 4.4% 3.0%
D.
C. 38,299 35,397 2,546 356 92.4% 6.6% 0.9% 0.0%
North
Carolina 38,087 19,261 18,776 50 50.6% 49.3% 0.1% 0.9%
Massachusetts 38,029 18,176 4,853 15,000 47.8% 12.8% 39.4% -14.2%
Kansas 32,249 14,896 14,214 3,139 46.2% 44.1% 9.7% 4.8%
Nebraska 31,474 17,130 13,314 1,030 54.4% 42.3% 3.3% 13.4%
Texas 27,452 10,551 15,421 1,480 38.4% 56.2% 5.4% -5.2%
Montana 20,103 11,805 6,720 1,578 58.7% 33.4% 7.8% 12.0%
New
Mexico 18,730 12,815 5,680 235 68.4% 30.3% 1.3% 11.8%
Tennessee 18,684 9,288 9,549 -153 49.7% 51.1% -0.8% 7.9%
Wisconsin 17,764 6,737 4,212 6,815 37.9% 23.7% 38.4% -18.4%
Indiana 15,022 6,775 4,547 3,700 45.1% 30.3% 24.6% -4.8%
Iowa 13,085 9,270 3,913 -98 70.8% 29.9% -0.7% 17.1%
Missouri 9,993 5,166 3,201 1,626 51.7% 32.0% 16.3% 2.5%
Alabama 8,103 1,969 2,805 3,329 24.3% 34.6% 41.1% -14.5%
West
Virginia 7,063 2,815 4,074 174 39.9% 57.7% 2.5% -2.7%
Idaho 5,679 1,553 1,651 2,475 27.3% 29.1% 43.6% -8.7%
Nevada 4,243 2,267 1,879 97 53.4% 44.3% 2.3% -1.7%
Louisiana 2,702 2,008 672 22 74.3% 24.9% 0.8% 34.4%
North
Dakota 1,787 166 79 1,542 9.3% 4.4% 86.3% -35.4%
Kentucky 1,738 278 349 1,111 16.0% 20.1% 63.9% -25.2%
Minnesota 1,646 1,152 463 31 70.0% 28.1% 1.9% 15.9%
Oklahoma 627 207 420 0 33.0% 67.0% 0.0% -1.3%
Rhode
Island 608 418 172 18 68.8% 28.3% 3.0% 5.6%
Hawaii 410 283 120 7 69.0% 29.3% 1.7% -2.8%
South
Dakota 102 47 55 0 46.1% 53.9% 0.0% 1.3%
Delaware 84 65 18 1 77.4% 21.4% 1.2% 15.4%
Wyoming 78 24 45 9 30.8% 57.7% 11.5% -1.8%
2004 Late Votes
2004 Total KERRY BUSH OTHER KERRY BUSH OTHER
Init 116.7 56.4 59.8 0.4 48.32% 51.24% 0.44%
2-pty 116.2 56.4 59.8 na 45.53% 51.57%
Late 5.6 2.6 2.2 0.8 46.90% 39.40% 13.70%
2-pty 4.8 2.6 2.2 na 54.20% 45.80%
Final 122.3 59.03 62.04 1.20 48.27% 50.73% 1.00%
2-pty 121.07 59.03 62.04 na 48.76% 51.24%
2000 Total GORE BUSH OTHER GORE BUSH OTHER
Init 102.6 49.5 49.3 3.8 48.25% 48.05% 3.70%
2-pty 98.8 49.5 49.3 na 50.10% 49.90%
Late 2.8 1.5 1.2 0.10 53.60% 42.90% 3.50%
2-pty 2.7 1.5 1.2 na 55.56% 44.40%
Final 105.41 51.00 50.46 3.95 48.38% 47.87% 3.75%
2-pty 101.46 51.00 50.46 na 50.27% 49.73%
In 2004, there was a 12% discrepancy in margin between the initial 116.3
million votes and the final 6.0. This resulted in a 0.5m decline in the
official Bush margin (3.5 to 3.0m).
The Initial and Late Vote discrepancy is a red flag. It indicates that the 2004
election was decided when 116m votes were recorded; election fraud was no
longer necessary. Late votes were irrelevant when Bush was declared the winner.
The media reported that Bush won by 3.5m votes; they still quote that initial
margin today. Edison-Mitofsky matched the Final Exit Poll to the initial 116
million recorded votes.
There was a 0.72 correlation between the late state vote shares and the exit
polls. The correlation for states with more than 40k late votes was a much
stronger 0.93.
This is further evidence that the "pristine" exit polls were close to
the true vote:
1) High correlation between state exit polls and late vote shares
2) Small discrepancies between the exit polls and the late vote shares
3) Higher Kerry share of late votes compared to initial recorded votes
How does one explain the discrepancies between the initial and late recorded
state vote shares? Kerry’s late vote share exceeded his initial share in 38
states (15 of 19 battleground states). Corresponding vote discrepancies were
significant in the East but near zero in the Far West, strongly suggesting
election fraud in early-reporting, vote-rich battleground states.
A false impression was created that Bush was winning the popular vote while the
state and national exit polls indicated that Kerry was winning big. In the Far
Western states there was virtually no difference between the 15.6m initial and
3.3m late recorded vote shares; Kerry was a steady 53% winner. But the Far West
average exit poll WPE was 6.4%, indicating a 56% Kerry share. Was vote-padding
still in effect?