Is the Media Cherry-picking Pre-election Polls by listing Likely (LV) but not Registered Voter (RV) Polls?
Jan. 27, 2009
The media seems intent on pushing likely voter (LV) polls
(likely voters are a subset of registered (RV) voters). RV polls include new
voters - mostly young Democrats. Since LV polls do not include new voters, they
underestimate the Democratic share. From 1992-2004, Democrats won new
voters by an average 14% margin. In 2008, Obama won new voters by 71-27%.
Real Clear Politics (RCP) is not being real clear. RCP does not list the final 5 registered-voter (RV) polls that show an average Obama lead of 52.2 - 39.6%, a 12.6% margin (the latest RV poll listed is the 10/13 Ipsos poll). RCP averaged the final 15 likely-voter (LV) polls: 52.1 - 44.5%, a 7.6% margin. The average of the final 25 LV polls was 50.84 - 42.60%, an 8.24% margin.
This analysis will show that the discrepancy between
the LV and RV averages is to be expected. In fact, the 25 LV polls, when
combined with Obama and McCain shares of new voters, match the RV polls - and
confirmed that Obama won by double his official 9.5m vote margin.
Why did RCP fail to list these 5 RV polls?
Gallup 11/02 53 40 13
ABC/WP 11/02 54 41 13
Pew 11/01 50 39 11
Pew 10/26 52 36 16
NBC 10/20 52 42 10
Total 52.2 39.6 12.6
On July 28, USA
Today released their polling results - and raised eyebrows: “Obama was
ahead 47%-44% among registered voters, down from a 6-percentage point lead he
had last month. McCain led 49%-45% among likely voters, reversing a 5-point
Obama lead among that group. In both cases, the margin of error is +/-4
points”. Gallup chief Frank Newport commented: "Registered voters are much
more important at the moment" and that McCain's lead among likely voters
suggests "the possibility's there that Republicans can get energized.”
But Obama led McCain 48%-40% among registered voters
in a separate Gallup tracking poll over the same three days. Gallup never
suggested that the discrepancy between
the RV and LV polls could have been due to the fact that the Democrats were
registering millions of new voters while Republicans were deserting the GOP.
With 131.37m votes recorded as of today, Obama’s margin is 9.5m (69.46 - 59.94m). He has 59.2% of the 10.2m votes since Election Day, raising his total vote share to 52.87 - 45.62%. He’s won new voters by 12.1 - 4.6 million (71-27%), a 7.5m vote margin – almost equal to his total.
RV and LV polls do not generally allocate
undecided voters. Typically,
undecided voters break strongly for the challenger - and Obama is considered
the challenger since McCain represented Bush’s third-term. Given the official
third-party 1.5% recorded share, we will allocate the undecided vote (UVA).
Typically, the challenger wins at least 70% of the undecided vote, depending on
the popularity of the incumbent. This analysis assumes that Obama was the
challenger since McCain represented Bush’s third term – and Bush had a 22%
approval rating. Conservatively, 75% of undecided voters were allocated (UVA)
to Obama.
Considering that LV
polls do not include new voters, why not calculate the total vote in two
stages: likely (LV) and new (RV) voters?
1) Use the average final
LV poll to calculate the Obama/McCain shares of returning (likely) Bush
and Kerry voters.
2) Use the 2008 National
Exit Poll (NEP) for the Obama/McCain shares of new voters.
The Final NEP is always forced to match the official
vote count. According to the 2008 NEP,
13% (17.1m) of the 131.37m who voted were new voters. Let’s check that number.
We know that there were 122.3m votes recorded in 2004. Applying the 1.2% annual
voter mortality rate and assuming a 95% turnout of 2004 voters still living,
110.6m former Bush, Kerry and third-party voters returned to vote in 2008.
Since 131.37m votes
have been recorded, there had to be approximately 20.77m new voters (15.8% of
the total). Therefore, the NEP understated the number of new voters by
approximately 4 million (3%) and also overstated the percentage mix (4%) of
returning third-party voters by 3% - an impossible 4 million. Obama had 71% of new voters and 66% of
others. More weight should be given to pre-election RV polls (which include new
voters) than to LV polls (which do not).
Consider the November RV and LV polls:
- 3 RV polls had Obama leading 52.33 - 40.0%. Assuming
he had 75% of the undecided vote, his projected RV share was 56.96%.
- 9 LV polls had Obama leading 51.00 - 43.6%. Assuming
he had 75% of the undecided vote, his projected LV share was 53.96%
Based on his
projected LV share, he won returning (LV) voters by 59.7 – 49.3m.
- The National Exit Poll indicates that Obama won new
voters by 71-27% (14.7 - 5.6m).
Combining returning and new voter shares, Obama won by
74.4 - 54.9m (56.7 - 41.8%), within
0.3% of the RV 56.96% projection.
The 56.7% share was also close to the Election
Calculator model (57.5%) – an independent confirmation.
Note: the final shares do not include uncounted votes,
which are heavily (70-80%) Democratic. In 2004, the Census survey indicated
that 125.7m votes were cast - but only 122.3m recorded. In 2000, 105.4m were
recorded out of 110.8m cast.
Based on the above, we
can conclude that:
1. Pre-election LV polls
were correct in predicting the Likely Voter (returning) shares.
2. Pre-election RV polls
were correct in predicting the Registered Voter (returning and new)
shares.
3. LV polls were misleading
since they failed to sample over 20m new voters, lowering Obama’s share
by 3%.
4. RV polls were realistic
since new, first- time voters were sampled.
5. The True Vote can be
calculated as a combination of two components:
a) Final LV poll average with undecided voters
allocated to determine the
Obama/McCain shares of returning 2004 voters
b) National Exit Poll to determine the shares of new
voters.
The 2008
Election Analysis is a comprehensive compendium of pre-and post election
polls, projections and a True Vote sensitivity analysis.
LV
and RV Projections of Returning 2004 Voters
2008 Total Obama
McCain Other
Recorded 131.37 69.46 59.93 1.98
Share 100% 52.87% 45.62% 1.51%
Recorded votes
2004 122.30m
2008 131.37
Assumptions
75% of Undecided vote allocated to Obama (UVA)
2004 Voters
4.8% mortality (5.87m)
95% turnout in 2008 (110.61m)
2008 National Exit Poll share of new voters
Obama 71%
McCain 27%
Other 2%
Calculating the
2008 True Vote
(Assume final LV polls for returning voters and National Exit Poll for new voter shares)
November Pre-election Poll shares
|
Poll |
BO |
JM |
Other |
Undecided
|
|
LV
(9) |
51.00% |
43.56% |
1.50% |
3.94% |
|
RV (3) |
52.33% |
40.00% |
1.50% |
6.17% |
Allocate undecided voters
|
UVA |
Obama UVA 75% |
McCain 25% UVA |
Other |
|
LV |
53.96% |
44.55% |
1.50% |
|
RV |
56.96% |
41.55% |
1.50% |
Calculate returning voters from prior
election
|
Total 04 |
122.29 |
|
|
|
|
Died |
5.87 |
4.8% |
|
|
|
Alive |
116.42 |
|
|
|
Turnout
|
110.60 |
95.0% |
(LV) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total 08 |
131.37 |
|
|
|
|
New |
20.77 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Vote |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Total |
|
NEP |
71% |
27% |
2% |
100% |
|
New |
14.75 |
5.61 |
0.42 |
20.77 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Returning |
53.96% |
44.55% |
1.50% |
100.0% |
|
Turnout |
59.67 |
49.27 |
1.66 |
110.60 |
|
Total |
74.42 |
54.87 |
2.07 |
131.37 |
|
Share |
56.65% |
41.77% |
1.58% |
100.0% |
|
Total |
69.46 |
59.93 |
1.98 |
131.37 |
|
Share |
52.87% |
45.62% |
1.51% |
100.0% |
|
Poll |
Poll |
Sample |
Obama |
McCain |
Spread |
Obama 75% UVA |
McCain 25% UVA |
Spread |
|
RV |
Date |
Average |
52.33 |
40.00 |
12.33 |
56.96 |
41.55 |
15.42 |
|
Gallup |
10/31 - 11/02 |
2847RV |
53 |
40 |
13 |
57.125 |
41.375 |
15.75 |
|
ABC/WP |
10/31 - 11/02 |
2446RV |
54 |
41 |
13 |
56.625 |
41.875 |
14.75 |
|
Pew |
10/29 - 11/01 |
1325RV |
50 |
39 |
11 |
57.125 |
41.375 |
15.75 |
LV and RV Poll
Averages (10/03-11/03)
|
Average |
Obama |
McCain |
Spread |
Obama 75% UVA |
McCain 25% UVA |
Spread |
|
10 RV |
50.30 |
40.00 |
10.30 |
56.45 |
42.05 |
14.40 |
|
25 LV |
50.84 |
42.60 |
8.24 |
54.64 |
43.87 |
10.77 |
|
|
Poll |
Poll |
Sample |
Obama |
McCain |
Spread |
Obama 75% UVA |
McCain 25% UVA |
Spread |
|
|
25 LV |
Date |
Average |
50.84 |
42.60 |
8.24 |
54.64 |
43.87 |
10.77 |
|
1 |
Research2k |
10/31 - 11/02 |
1100LV |
51 |
44 |
7 |
53.63 |
44.88 |
8.75 |
|
2 |
Zogby |
11/01 - 11/03 |
1201LV |
54 |
43 |
11 |
55.13 |
43.38 |
11.75 |
|
3 |
Hotline/FD |
10/31 - 11/02 |
882LV |
50 |
45 |
5 |
52.63 |
45.88 |
6.75 |
|
4 |
Rasmussen |
10/31 - 11/02 |
3000LV |
51 |
46 |
5 |
52.13 |
46.38 |
5.75 |
|
5 |
Battleground |
10/27 - 10/30 |
1000LV |
49 |
45 |
4 |
52.38 |
46.13 |
6.25 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6 |
Marist |
11/03 - 11/03 |
804LV |
52 |
43 |
9 |
54.63 |
43.88 |
10.75 |
|
7 |
FOX News |
11/02 - 11/03 |
971LV |
50 |
43 |
7 |
54.13 |
44.38 |
9.75 |
|
8 |
NBC/WSJ |
11/01 - 11/02 |
1011LV |
51 |
43 |
8 |
54.38 |
44.13 |
10.25 |
|
9 |
CNN |
10/30 - 11/01 |
1017LV |
51 |
43 |
8 |
54.38 |
44.13 |
10.25 |
|
10 |
Pew |
10/30 - 11/01 |
2587LV |
49 |
42 |
7 |
54.63 |
43.88 |
10.75 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11 |
CBS |
10/28 - 10/31 |
1005LV |
54 |
41 |
13 |
56.63 |
41.88 |
14.75 |
|
12 |
Marist |
10/29 - 10/29 |
543LV |
50 |
43 |
7 |
54.13 |
44.38 |
9.75 |
|
13 |
FOX News |
10/28 - 10/29 |
924LV |
47 |
44 |
3 |
52.63 |
45.88 |
6.75 |
|
14 |
Ipsos |
10/23 - 10/27 |
831LV |
50 |
45 |
5 |
52.63 |
45.88 |
6.75 |
|
15 |
Newsweek |
10/22 - 10/23 |
882LV |
53 |
41 |
12 |
56.38 |
42.13 |
14.25 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
16 |
CBS/NYT |
10/19 - 10/22 |
771LV |
52 |
39 |
13 |
57.63 |
40.88 |
16.75 |
|
17 |
FOX News |
10/20 - 10/21 |
936LV |
49 |
40 |
9 |
56.13 |
42.38 |
13.75 |
|
18 |
Pew Resrch |
10/16 - 10/19 |
2382LV |
53 |
39 |
14 |
57.88 |
40.63 |
17.25 |
|
19 |
Ipsos |
10/16 - 10/20 |
773LV |
50 |
42 |
8 |
54.88 |
43.63 |
11.25 |
|
20 |
CNN |
10/17 - 10/19 |
764LV |
51 |
46 |
5 |
52.13 |
46.38 |
5.75 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
21 |
Pew Resrch |
10/12 - 10/14 |
1191LV |
50 |
40 |
10 |
56.38 |
42.13 |
14.25 |
|
22 |
CBS/NYT |
10/10 - 10/13 |
699LV |
53 |
39 |
14 |
57.88 |
40.63 |
17.25 |
|
23 |
LAT |
10/10 - 10/13 |
1030LV |
50 |
41 |
9 |
55.63 |
42.88 |
12.75 |
|
24 |
ABC/WP |
10/09 - 10/11 |
766LV |
53 |
43 |
10 |
54.88 |
43.63 |
11.25 |
|
25 |
CBS/NYT |
10/03 - 10/05 |
616LV |
48 |
45 |
3 |
52.13 |
46.38 |
5.75 |
|
|
Poll |
Poll
|
Sample |
Obama |
McCain |
Spread |
Obama 75% UVA |
McCain 25% UVA |
Spread |
|
|
10 RV |
Date |
Average |
50.30 |
40.00 |
10.30 |
56.45 |
42.05 |
14.40 |
|
|
Gallup |
10/31 - 11/02 |
2847RV |
53 |
40 |
13 |
57.13 |
41.38 |
15.75 |
|
|
ABC/WP |
10/31 - 11/02 |
2446RV |
54 |
41 |
13 |
56.63 |
41.88 |
14.75 |
|
|
Pew |
10/29 - 11/01 |
1325RV |
50 |
39 |
11 |
57.13 |
41.38 |
15.75 |
|
|
Pew |
10/23 - 10/26 |
1325RV |
52 |
36 |
16 |
59.88 |
38.63 |
21.25 |
|
|
NBC/WSJ |
10/18 - 10/20 |
1159RV |
52 |
42 |
10 |
55.38 |
43.13 |
12.25 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ipsos |
10/09 - 10/13 |
1036RV |
48 |
39 |
9 |
56.63 |
41.88 |
14.75 |
|
|
Newsweek |
10/08 - 10/09 |
1035RV |
52 |
41 |
11 |
56.13 |
42.38 |
13.75 |
|
|
FOX News |
10/08 - 10/09 |
900RV |
46 |
39 |
7 |
56.13 |
42.38 |
13.75 |
|
|
Ipsos |
10/02 - 10/06 |
858RV |
47 |
40 |
7 |
55.63 |
42.88 |
12.75 |
|
|
NBC/WSJ |
10/04 - 10/05 |
658RV |
49 |
43 |
6 |
53.88 |
44.63 |
9.25 |
Probability
Obama Exceeds Given Vote Share for various MoE
(based
on 11/2 RV Polls, 5293 Sample MoE =
1.33%)
|
|
|
2-party |
Obama Share > |
1.00% |
1.20% |
1.33% |
1.50% |
1.75% |
2.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Probability
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
55% |
54.18% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
|
|
56% |
55.16% |
100% |
100% |
99% |
99% |
97% |
96% |
|
|
|
57% |
56.15% |
93% |
89% |
86% |
83% |
80% |
77% |
|
|
|
57.74% |
56.87% |
50% |
50% |
50% |
50% |
50% |
50% |
|
|
|
58% |
57.13% |
31% |
34% |
35% |
37% |
39% |
40% |
|
|
|
59% |
58.12% |
1% |
2% |
3% |
5% |
8% |
11% |
|
|
|
60% |
59.10% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
2008
National Exit Poll
(forced to match the 2008 recorded vote, but the
returning voter mix is impossible)
|
2004 |
Mix |
Votes |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
|
New |
13.00% |
17.1 |
71% |
27% |
2% |
12.13 |
4.60 |
0.34 |
|
Kerry |
37.17% |
48.8 |
89% |
9% |
2% |
43.51 |
4.35 |
0.98 |
|
Bush |
45.83% |
60.2 |
17% |
82% |
1% |
10.34 |
49.27 |
0.60 |
|
Other |
4.00% |
5.3 |
66% |
24% |
10% |
3.48 |
1.25 |
0.53 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
100.0% |
131.37m |
52.87% |
45.28% |
1.86% |
69.46m |
59.48m |
2.45m |
Election
Calculator: Scenario 1
(returning voter mix based on the recorded 2004 vote
(Bush 50.73-Kerry 48.27%) adjusted for 4.8% voter mortality and 95% turnout)
|
2004 |
Mix |
Votes |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
|
New |
15.80% |
20.8 |
71% |
27% |
2% |
14.83 |
5.51 |
0.42 |
|
Kerry |
40.64% |
53.4 |
89% |
9% |
2% |
47.52 |
4.80 |
1.07 |
|
Bush |
42.71% |
56.1 |
17% |
82% |
1% |
9.54 |
46.01 |
0.56 |
|
Other |
0.85% |
1.1 |
66% |
24% |
10% |
0.74 |
0.26 |
0.11 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
100.00% |
131.37m |
55.28% |
43.08% |
1.64% |
72.62m |
56.59m |
2.16m |
(returning voter mix based on the 2004 exit poll
(Kerry 52-Bush 47%) adjusted for 4.8% voter mortality and 95% turnout)
|
2004 |
Mix |
Votes |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
|
New |
15.80% |
20.8 |
71% |
27% |
2% |
14.83 |
5.51 |
0.42 |
|
Kerry |
43.78% |
57.5 |
89% |
9% |
2% |
51.19 |
5.18 |
1.15 |
|
Bush |
39.57% |
52.0 |
17% |
82% |
1% |
8.84 |
42.63 |
0.52 |
|
Other |
0.85% |
1.1 |
66% |
24% |
10% |
0.74 |
0.26 |
0.11 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
100.00% |
131.37m |
57.54% |
40.78% |
1.67% |
75.59m |
53.58m |
2.20m |
Recorded State Votes, Final Pre-election Polls and
Projections
Obama
had a 53.8% projected vote share based on a 75% undecided voter allocation
(UVA).
The
probability of the 2.1% difference in total margin assumes a 2.0% aggregate
margin of error.
The
probability of the difference in margin for a state is based on a 3.0% margin
of error for the average of the final 2-3 polls.
|
|
Recorded
(000) |
|
|
|
Vote share |
|
|
Poll share |
|
75% UVA |
25% UVA |
|
|
Prob |
|
|
Total |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Obama |
McCain |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Diff |
of Diff |
|
Average |
131370 |
69457 |
59935 |
1978 |
52.87 |
45.62 |
1.51 |
51.29 |
43.85 |
53.80 |
44.69 |
1.51 |
1.86 |
17.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AL |
2100 |
813 |
1267 |
20 |
38.7 |
60.3 |
0.9 |
36 |
61 |
37.5 |
61.5 |
0.9 |
-2.4 |
21.5% |
|
AK |
326 |
124 |
194 |
9 |
37.9 |
59.4 |
2.7 |
40 |
58 |
39.5 |
57.8 |
2.7 |
3.2 |
14.2% |
|
AZ |
2304 |
1035 |
1230 |
39 |
44.9 |
53.4 |
1.7 |
46 |
50 |
47.7 |
50.6 |
1.7 |
5.6 |
3.1% |
|
AR |
1087 |
422 |
638 |
26 |
38.9 |
58.7 |
2.4 |
44 |
51 |
45.9 |
51.6 |
2.4 |
14.1 |
0.0% |
|
CA |
13576 |
8274 |
5012 |
289 |
61.0 |
36.9 |
2.1 |
60 |
36 |
61.4 |
36.5 |
2.1 |
0.9 |
38.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CO |
2401 |
1289 |
1074 |
39 |
53.7 |
44.7 |
1.6 |
51 |
45 |
52.8 |
45.6 |
1.6 |
-1.8 |
27.8% |
|
CT |
1647 |
998 |
629 |
20 |
60.6 |
38.2 |
1.2 |
56 |
35 |
61.9 |
37.0 |
1.2 |
2.5 |
20.1% |
|
DE |
412 |
255 |
152 |
5 |
61.9 |
36.9 |
1.1 |
63 |
33 |
65.2 |
33.7 |
1.1 |
6.4 |
1.7% |
|
DC |
266 |
246 |
17 |
3 |
92.5 |
6.5 |
1.0 |
90 |
9 |
90.0 |
9.0 |
1.0 |
-4.9 |
5.2% |
|
FL |
8410 |
4282 |
4046 |
83 |
50.9 |
48.1 |
1.0 |
49 |
47 |
51.3 |
47.8 |
1.0 |
0.7 |
40.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GA |
3932 |
1844 |
2049 |
39 |
46.9 |
52.1 |
1.0 |
46 |
49 |
49.0 |
50.0 |
1.0 |
4.2 |
8.3% |
|
HI |
454 |
326 |
121 |
7 |
71.8 |
26.6 |
1.6 |
68 |
27 |
70.6 |
27.9 |
1.6 |
-2.6 |
19.9% |
|
ID |
657 |
236 |
403 |
18 |
36.0 |
61.3 |
2.7 |
33 |
62 |
34.7 |
62.6 |
2.7 |
-2.5 |
19.8% |
|
IL |
5523 |
3420 |
2032 |
72 |
61.9 |
36.8 |
1.3 |
60 |
37 |
61.3 |
37.4 |
1.3 |
-1.3 |
33.5% |
|
IN |
2753 |
1374 |
1346 |
33 |
49.9 |
48.9 |
1.2 |
46 |
48 |
49.6 |
49.2 |
1.2 |
-0.6 |
41.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
IA |
1537 |
829 |
682 |
26 |
53.9 |
44.4 |
1.7 |
54 |
39 |
58.0 |
40.3 |
1.7 |
8.1 |
0.3% |
|
KS |
1238 |
515 |
700 |
24 |
41.6 |
56.5 |
1.9 |
39 |
56 |
41.3 |
56.8 |
1.9 |
-0.5 |
42.9% |
|
KY |
1828 |
752 |
1048 |
27 |
41.1 |
57.4 |
1.5 |
41 |
55 |
42.9 |
55.6 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
12.4% |
|
LA |
1961 |
783 |
1148 |
29 |
39.9 |
58.6 |
1.5 |
40 |
50 |
46.4 |
52.1 |
1.5 |
12.9 |
0.0% |
|
ME |
731 |
422 |
295 |
14 |
57.7 |
40.4 |
1.9 |
56 |
43 |
55.3 |
42.8 |
1.9 |
-4.8 |
5.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MD |
2632 |
1629 |
960 |
42 |
61.9 |
36.5 |
1.6 |
57 |
38 |
59.5 |
38.8 |
1.6 |
-4.7 |
5.7% |
|
MA |
3081 |
1904 |
1109 |
68 |
61.8 |
36.0 |
2.2 |
55 |
37 |
59.3 |
38.4 |
2.2 |
-4.9 |
5.0% |
|
MI |
5007 |
2873 |
2049 |
86 |
57.4 |
40.9 |
1.7 |
53 |
38 |
58.5 |
39.8 |
1.7 |
2.2 |
23.3% |
|
MN |
2910 |
1573 |
1275 |
62 |
54.1 |
43.8 |
2.1 |
53 |
43 |
54.4 |
43.5 |
2.1 |
0.7 |
40.7% |
|
MS |
1290 |
555 |
725 |
11 |
43.0 |
56.2 |
0.8 |
42 |
53 |
45.1 |
54.0 |
0.8 |
4.3 |
8.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MO |
2928 |
1442 |
1446 |
40 |
49.3 |
49.4 |
1.4 |
47 |
46 |
51.2 |
47.4 |
1.4 |
4.0 |
9.5% |
|
MT |
491 |
232 |
243 |
17 |
47.2 |
49.4 |
3.4 |
48 |
47 |
49.2 |
47.4 |
3.4 |
4.1 |
8.5% |
|
NE |
801 |
333 |
453 |
15 |
41.6 |
56.5 |
1.9 |
37 |
56 |
40.8 |
57.3 |
1.9 |
-1.5 |
30.9% |
|
NV |
968 |
534 |
413 |
21 |
55.1 |
42.7 |
2.2 |
51 |
44 |
53.1 |
44.7 |
2.2 |
-4.1 |
8.6% |
|
NH |
711 |
385 |
317 |
10 |
54.1 |
44.5 |
1.4 |
53 |
42 |
55.7 |
42.9 |
1.4 |
3.2 |
14.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NJ |
3876 |
2215 |
1613 |
48 |
57.2 |
41.6 |
1.2 |
55 |
38 |
59.3 |
39.4 |
1.2 |
4.3 |
7.5% |
|
NM |
830 |
472 |
347 |
11 |
56.9 |
41.8 |
1.3 |
53 |
45 |
53.5 |
45.2 |
1.3 |
-6.8 |
1.2% |
|
NY |
7595 |
4770 |
2742 |
83 |
62.8 |
36.1 |
1.1 |
64 |
31 |
66.9 |
32.0 |
1.1 |
8.3 |
0.3% |
|
NC |
4311 |
2143 |
2128 |
40 |
49.7 |
49.4 |
0.9 |
49 |
48 |
50.6 |
48.5 |
0.9 |
1.7 |
28.6% |
|
ND |
318 |
141 |
169 |
8 |
44.5 |
53.1 |
2.5 |
46 |
47 |
49.4 |
48.1 |
2.5 |
9.9 |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
OH |
5710 |
2933 |
2674 |
102 |
51.4 |
46.8 |
1.8 |
51 |
45 |
52.7 |
45.6 |
1.8 |
2.6 |
19.6% |
|
OK |
1463 |
502 |
960 |
0 |
34.4 |
65.6 |
0.0 |
34 |
63 |
36.3 |
63.8 |
0.0 |
3.8 |
10.8% |
|
OR |
1828 |
1037 |
738 |
52 |
56.7 |
40.4 |
2.9 |
56 |
39 |
57.6 |
39.5 |
2.9 |
1.7 |
28.1% |
|
PA |
6013 |
3276 |
2656 |
81 |
54.5 |
44.2 |
1.3 |
52 |
43 |
54.7 |
43.9 |
1.3 |
0.5 |
43.3% |
|
RI |
470 |
297 |
165 |
8 |
63.1 |
35.2 |
1.7 |
58 |
39 |
59.0 |
39.3 |
1.7 |
-8.3 |
0.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SC |
1921 |
862 |
1035 |
24 |
44.9 |
53.9 |
1.2 |
43 |
53 |
45.1 |
53.7 |
1.2 |
0.4 |
45.2% |
|
SD |
382 |
171 |
203 |
8 |
44.7 |
53.2 |
2.1 |
44 |
53 |
44.7 |
53.2 |
2.1 |
-0.1 |
48.2% |
|
TN |
2600 |
1087 |
1479 |
33 |
41.8 |
56.9 |
1.3 |
40 |
54 |
43.5 |
55.2 |
1.3 |
3.4 |
12.8% |
|
TX |
8087 |
3529 |
4479 |
79 |
43.6 |
55.4 |
1.0 |
44 |
54 |
44.8 |
54.3 |
1.0 |
2.3 |
22.7% |
|
UT |
956 |
328 |
596 |
32 |
34.3 |
62.3 |
3.4 |
32 |
56 |
38.5 |
58.2 |
3.4 |
8.4 |
0.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
VT |
325 |
219 |
99 |
7 |
67.5 |
30.5 |
2.1 |
60 |
36 |
61.4 |
36.5 |
2.1 |
-12.1 |
0.0% |
|
VA |
3723 |
1960 |
1725 |
39 |
52.6 |
46.3 |
1.0 |
51 |
46 |
52.5 |
46.5 |
1.0 |
-0.3 |
45.8% |
|
WA |
3049 |
1751 |
1229 |
69 |
57.4 |
40.3 |
2.3 |
54 |
39 |
57.6 |
40.2 |
2.3 |
0.3 |
46.5% |
|
WV |
715 |
304 |
398 |
13 |
42.6 |
55.7 |
1.8 |
42 |
50 |
46.7 |
51.6 |
1.8 |
8.3 |
0.3% |
|
WI |
2983 |
1677 |
1262 |
44 |
56.2 |
42.3 |
1.5 |
54 |
40 |
57.4 |
41.1 |
1.5 |
2.4 |
21.7% |
|
WY |
255 |
83 |
165 |
7 |
32.5 |
64.8 |
2.7 |
35 |
58 |
38.2 |
59.1 |
2.7 |
11.4 |
0.0% |