The
National Exit Poll must match the official vote count - come hell or
high water
Jan. 3, 2009
Assume you had the full set of the preliminary National
Exit Poll results that showed Obama winning with a 57.8% vote share. As you
suspected, more Kerry voters returned than did Bush voters. The results differ
sharply from the official vote count that has Obama winning 52.34%. But the National Exit Poll must match the
official vote count - come hell or high water. It’s standard operating procedure:
pollsters
alter exit poll data to be the same as the election results. How would you
go about it?
2008 National Exit Poll (unadjusted)
There are two possibilities: you can adjust the returning
voter mix and/or the individual vote shares.
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.8% 19.2 72.0% 26.0% 2% 13.79 4.98 0.38
Kerry 42.9% 52.0 89.8% 8.2% 2% 46.66 4.29 1.04
Bush 40.4% 49.0 18.2% 80.8% 1% 8.93 39.61 0.49
Other 0.85% 1.0 66.0% 24.0% 10% 0.68 0.25 0.10
Total 100% 121.21 57.80% 40.53% 1.66% 70.06 49.12 2.02
You load the Excel Solver add-in program. It will determine the returning voter mix that will force the cross tab to match the recorded vote share - or at least get very close to it. It will find the required mix using a sophisticated goal-seeking algorithm. It’s just trial and error on steroids.
Solver needs the ranges for the return voter percentage mix and the corresponding vote shares to adjust until it matches the target (recorded) Obama vote share. It also needs to know the numerical constraints; the mix and share percentages must all be greater than zero and sum to 100%.
Now that Solver knows the target vote share and the range of percentages to adjust subject to the constraints, it can begin the search for the required mix and vote shares. Within seconds, it indicates that it has found the values needed to match the recorded 52.34% share.
2008 National Exit Poll (matched to the recorded vote)
1. Target the Obama vote share at
52.34%
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.8% 19.2 71.0% 27.0% 2% 13.61 5.17 0.38
Kerry 38.5% 46.6 87.1% 10.9% 2% 40.62 5.08 0.93
Bush 44.9% 54.4 15.7% 83.3% 1% 8.54 45.30 0.54
Other 0.85% 1.0 66.0% 24.0% 10% 0.68 0.25 0.10
Total 100% 121.21 52.34% 46.03% 1.62% 63.44 55.79 1.96
Solver has determined that to match
the recorded vote, the returning voter mix from the initial exit poll must be
radically adjusted: an increase of 5.4 million more Bush voters and
corresponding decrease in Kerry voters. Solver also reduced the Obama share of
new voters (1%), returning Kerry voters (2.8%) and returning Bush voters
(2.5%). But since the exit poll margin of error is 1.5%, the Obama shares of
Kerry and Bush voters must be re-adjusted to fall within the MoE based on the
original poll results.
2. Adjust the Obama share of Kerry
voters to 89% and Bush voters to 17%
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.8% 19.2 71% 27% 2% 13.61 5.17 0.38
Kerry 36.7% 44.4 89% 9% 2% 39.54 4.00 0.89
Bush 46.7% 56.6 17% 82% 1% 9.62 46.40 0.57
Other 0.85% 1.0 66% 24% 10% 0.68 0.25 0.10
Total 100% 121.21 52.34% 46.05% 1.60% 63.44 55.82 1.94
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 13.00% 15.8 71% 27% 2% 11.19 4.25 0.32
Kerry 36.62% 44.4 89% 9% 2% 39.50 3.99 0.89
Bush 46.38% 56.2 17% 82% 1% 9.56 46.10 0.56
Other 4.00% 4.8 66% 24% 10% 3.20 1.16 0.48
Total 100% 121.21 52.34% 45.79% 1.86% 63.44 55.51 2.25
Done. But…10.16 million late votes
have been recorded since Election Day; the vote count is 131.37 million.
Obama has won 59% of the late
votes, increasing his vote share to 52.87%. Recalculate the mix.
4. The updated Final NEP (12/25/08):
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 13.00% 17.1 71% 27% 2% 12.13 4.61 0.34
Kerry 37.34% 49.1 89% 9% 2% 43.66 4.42 0.98
Bush 45.66% 60.0 17% 82% 1% 10.20 49.19 0.60
Other 4.00% 5.3 66% 24% 10% 3.47 1.26 0.53
Total 100% 131.37 52.87% 45.27% 1.86% 69.46 59.47 2.45
But the Final NEP is not feasible. The returning voter mix required to match the recorded
vote is mathematically impossible.
5. This result is feasible. But the returning voter
mix is based on an implausible recorded 2004 vote:
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.85% 20.8 71% 27% 2% 14.79 5.62 0.42
Kerry 40.40% 53.1 89% 9% 2% 47.24 4.78 1.06
Bush 42.90% 56.4 17% 82% 1% 9.58 46.21 0.56
Other 0.85% 1.1 66% 24% 10% 0.74 0.27 0.11
Total 100% 131.37 55.07% 43.30% 1.64% 72.34 56.88 2.15
6. This result is more likely. The returning voter
mix is based on the unadjusted 2004 state exit poll aggregate:
2004 Mix Votes Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
New 15.85% 20.8 71% 27% 2% 14.79 5.62 0.42
Kerry 44.00% 57.8 89% 9% 2% 51.44 5.20 1.16
Bush 39.30% 51.6 17% 82% 1% 8.78 42.34 0.52
Other 0.85% 1.1 66% 24% 10% 0.74 0.27 0.11
Total 100% 131.37 57.66% 40.67% 1.68% 75.75 53.42 2.20
-The Final NEP indicates that 2004
third-party voters comprised 4% (5.3m) of the 131.37 million who voted in
2008. But there were only 1.2m
third-party voters in 2004.
-Bush won by an official 62-59
million votes. But returning Bush voters comprised 46% (60.0m) and Kerry voters
just 37% (49.1m) – a 10.9 million spread.
- According to voter mortality
tables, approximately 3 million Bush voters died prior to the 2008 election.
But even assuming 100% Bush voter turnout in 2008, at most 59 million could
have voted. Realistically, approximately 95% (56m) voted. Therefore, the Final NEP overstated the
number of returning Bush voters by 4 million. And that’s a conservative number
since it assumes that the recorded vote was equal to the True vote.
-According to the unadjusted 2004
state exit poll aggregate, Kerry won by 52-47% (63.6-57.5m). If the aggregate
reflected the True vote, then the 2008 NEP overstated the number of returning
Bush voters by 9 million.
The Final National Exit Poll
anomalies should have been reported by the media. But the NY Times, CNN, ABC,
the Washington Post commissioned the NEP.
The impossible results will remain official. Otherwise, the public would
know that Obama really won by more than 20 million votes. That’s too big a
mandate; he would be compelled to enact a progressive agenda. More important,
the Corporate Media does not want the public to know that Bushco stole both
elections and that the same Final NEP anomalies existed in 2004.