Confirmation
of 2000-2008 Election Fraud: Analysis of the Essential Polling Evidence
April 8, 2009
In analyzing historical election data, an ongoing pattern of statistical anomalies leads to two conclusions: the recorded vote does not reflect the True Vote and the pattern always favors the Republicans. This brief summary of recurring anomalies since the 2000 Selection is powerful evidence that the 2000 and 2004 elections were stolen and that landslides were denied in the 2006 midterms and 2008 presidential elections. The analysis does not include millions of potential Democrats who were disenfranchised and never even got to vote.
There are millions of uncounted votes in every election. The majority (70-80%) are Democratic.
The Democratic late vote exceeded the Election Day share by 7% in each of the last three presidential elections.
Historically, undecided voters break (60-90%) for the challenger.
Pre-election polls in general do not allocate undecided voters.
The undecided vote was strongly Democratic in the last three elections.
According to the 1988-2004 National Exit Polls, the Democrats won new voters by an average 14% margin.
Registered voter (RV) polls include all registered new voters; likely-voter (LV) polls are a subset of RV polls and exclude many newly registered.
In general, only LV polls are posted during the final two weeks before the election.
LV polls are a subset of the total (RV) sample and have consistently understated the Democratic vote.
The RV samples are more accurate, especially when there is a heavy turnout of new voters – as in 2004, 2006 and 2008.
The Census reported that 88.5% of registered voters turned out on 2004.
The average projected turnout of 5 final pre-election RV/LV polls was 82.8%.
A regression analysis of Kerry’s vote share vs. registered voter turnout indicated he had a 52.6% share (assuming a 75% UVA).
Assuming the two-party vote, Kerry had a 51.3% share.
There was a strong 0.89 correlation ratio between Kerry’s LV poll share and LV/RV turnout.
In other words, the pre-election polls underestimated voter turnout by 6%. Newly registered Democrats came out in force.
In 2008, Obama won new voters by approximately 71-27%; in 2004, Kerry won new voters by approximately 57-41%.
The calculations below confirm that new voters comprise
the difference (RV – LV) between registered (RV) and likely voter (LV)
sample-size.
The Obama / McCain share of the difference was 73.3-26.7%, closely matching the 71-27% NEP new voter share.
The Kerry / Bush share of the difference was 57.8-42.2%, closely matching the 57-41% NEP new voter share.
The number of new voters is a function of voter mortality and turnout. It is estimated by the simple formula:
New voters = current election voters– (prior election
recorded vote – voter mortality) * prior voter turnout
Applying the new voter formula based on the 2008 recorded
vote (131.37m) and the 2004 vote (122.3m),
Given 1.2% annual voter mortality (5.9 million over 4 years) and an estimated 97% turnout of 2004 election voters in 2008:
New 2008 voters = 18.5 million = 131.37 – (122.3 – 5.9)* 0.97 = 131.37 –116.4*.97= 131.37- 112.91
According to the Final 2008 NEP, there were 17.1m new voters (13% of 131.37).
Applying the new voter formula based on 2004 votes cast
(125.7m) and 2000 votes cast (110.8m),
New 2004 voters = 23.5 million = 125.7 – (110.8 – 5.4)* 0.97 = 125.74 –105.4*.97= 125.74- 102.24
There were approximately 3.8 million returning Nader voters. Kerry won 2.4 million (64%); Bush had 0.7 million (17%)
According to the 1222am National Exit Poll, Kerry won 13.4 million (57%) new voters; Bush had 9.4 million (41%).
Of the 27.3 million new and returning Nader voters, Kerry
won 15.8m and Bush 10.1m – a 5.7 million Kerry margin.
Since Bush won the official recorded vote by 3 million,
then 8.7 million more returning Gore voters defected than Bush voters.
But the 1222am National Exit Poll indicated that 10% of
returning Bush voters defected to Kerry and 8% of Gore voters defected to Bush.
The Final NEP is always forced to match the recorded vote
count.
In 2004, the returning Bush/Gore 43/37% voter mix was impossible.
In 2006, the returning 49/43% Bush/Kerry voter mix was implausible.
In 2008, the returning 46/37% Bush/Kerry voter mix was impossible.
2000
Gore won by 51.0-50.46m (48.38-47.87%).
The Census reported 110.8 million votes cast, but just 105.4m
were recorded.
The Final 2000 NEP was forced to match the recorded vote.
Approximately 4 million of the 5.4 million uncounted
votes were for Gore.
Therefore he won the True Vote by 55-52m.
The election was stolen.
2004
Bush won the recorded vote by 62.0-59.0m (50.73-48.27%)
Kerry won the unadjusted state exit polls by 52-47%.
He led the preliminary NEP (12:22am, 13047 respondents) by 51-48%.
He led despite the implausible NEP 41/39% returning Bush/Gore voter mix.
The Final NEP (13660 sample) was forced to match the 50.7-48.3% Bush recorded margin.
To force the match in the Final NEP:
a) Bush shares of returning and new voters were increased,
b) The returning Bush/Gore voter mix was changed to an impossible 43/37%.
The mix indicates an impossible 52.6m (43% of 122.3)
returning Bush 2000 voters.
Bush only had 50.46 million recorded votes in 2000.
Approximately 2.5m died and 2.5m did not vote in 2004.
So there were at most 45.5 million returning Bush voters.
The Final overstated the number of returning Bush voters
by 7 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 8-10 million.
The election was stolen.
Democrats won all 120 pre-election Generic polls.
The final trend line projection showed a 56.43-41.57% Democratic landslide.
At 7pm, the NEP indicated a 55-43% landslide.
The returning Bush/Kerry voter mix was 47/45%.
The Final was forced to match the 52-46% recorded vote.
To force the match:
a) the Bush share of returning and new voters were increased,
b) the returning voter mix was changed to an impossible
49/43%.
The Democratic margin was cut in half.
The landslide was denied.
2008
Obama won the recorded vote by 69.4-59.9m (52.9-45.6%)
Obama led the final pre-election registered voter polls by 52-39%.
The Final 2008 NEP was forced to match the recorded vote.
The Final indicated that an impossible 5.2 million (4% of 131.37m) were returning third-party voters.
There were only 1.2 million third-party voters in 2004.
To force the match, the Final indicated an impossible 46/37% Bush/Kerry returning voter mix.
The Final indicated there were 60.4 million (46% of 131.37m) returning Bush voters.
Bush only had 62.0 million votes in 2004 (assuming no fraud).
Approximately 3 million died and another 3 million did not vote in 2008.
The mix overstated the number of returning Bush voters by
4 million - assuming zero fraud in 2004.
It overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 9
million - assuming the unadjusted 2004 state aggregate exit poll (Kerry by
52-47%).
Obama's True Vote margin was cut in half.
The landslide was denied.
In summary:
If Final NEP weightings indicate a mathematically
impossible number of returning voters, then simple logic dictates that the
weightings are impossible.
Since impossible weightings were necessary to match to the
official vote count, then the official vote count must also be impossible.
Since the vote count is impossible, then all demographic
category cross tabs must use incorrect weights and/or vote shares to match the
count.
U.S. Census
Bureau
Reported
Voting in Presidential Election Years by Region, Race, Hispanic Origin, Sex,
and Age
November
1964 to 2004
Presidential
elections of 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
Total
voting age 116.54 136.20 146.55 157.09 169.96 178.10 185.68 193.65 202.61 215.69
Change 5.93 19.67 10.35 10.54 12.88 8.14 7.59 7.97 8.96 13.09
Annual
Mortality% 1.38% 1.36% 1.34% 1.32% 1.30% 1.28% 1.26% 1.24% 1.22% 1.20%
4-year
mortality 6.19 6.43 7.41 7.85 8.29 8.84 9.12 9.36 9.61 9.89
New Voting
age 12.12 25.86 16.78 17.95 20.73 16.43 16.42 17.09 18.32 22.69
Registered 86.57 98.48 97.76 105.04 116.11 118.59 126.58 127.66 129.55 142.07
Change na 11.91 -0.72 7.27 11.07 2.48 7.99 1.08 1.89 12.52
4-year
mortality 4.78 5.36 5.24 5.55 6.04 6.07 6.38 6.33 6.32 6.82
New
Registered (after mort.) na 17.26 4.52 12.82 17.11 8.55 14.37 7.41 8.21 19.34
Percent
Voting age 74.3 72.3 66.7 66.9 68.3 66.6 68.2 65.9 63.9 65.9
Change na 13.8 -0.7 7.4 10.5 2.1 6.7 0.9 1.5 9.7
Total
votes cast 78.96 85.77 86.70 93.07 101.88 102.22 113.87 105.02 110.83 125.74
Change 2.29 6.80 0.93 6.37 8.81 0.35 11.64 -8.85 5.81 14.91
4-year
mortality 4.29 4.36 4.67 4.65 4.91 5.30 5.23 5.74 5.21 5.41
Incr votes
cast (after mort.) 6.59 11.16 5.60 11.02 13.73 5.64 16.88 -3.11 11.02 20.32
Incr/
votes cast 8.3% 13.0% 6.5% 11.8% 13.5% 5.5% 14.8% -3.0% 9.9% 16.2%
Cast/Voting
age 67.8 63.0 59.2 59.2 59.9 57.4 61.3 54.2 54.7 58.30
Registered
VoterTurnout 91.2 87.1 88.7 88.6 87.7 86.2 90.0 82.3 85.5 88.5
Change in
votes cast 3.0 8.6 1.1 7.3 9.5 0.3 11.4 -7.8 5.5 13.5
Total
Recorded Votes 72.97 76.34 79.98 85.11 92.03 91.60 104.42 96.28 105.42 122.30
Dem 31.28 29.17 40.83 35.48 37.58 41.81 44.91 47.40 51.00 59.03
Rep 31.79 47.17 39.15 43.90 54.46 48.89 39.10 39.20 50.46 62.04
Other 9.91 0.00 0.00 5.72 0.00 0.90 20.41 9.68 3.95 1.23
Uncounted-net 6.00 9.43 6.72 7.96 9.85 10.63 9.45 8.74 5.41 3.44
Dem 4.50 7.07 5.04 5.97 7.38 7.97 7.09 6.55 4.06 2.58
Rep 1.50 2.36 1.68 1.99 2.46 2.66 2.36 2.18 1.35 0.86
Net Dem 3.00 4.71 3.36 3.98 4.92 5.31 4.72 4.37 2.71 1.72
Percent
Uncounted 7.60 10.99 7.75 8.55 9.66 10.40 8.30 8.32 4.88 2.74
Total Votes
Cast (incl. Unctd) 78.96 85.77 86.70 93.07 101.88 102.22 113.87 105.02 110.83 125.74
Dem 35.77 36.24 45.87 41.45 44.96 49.78 51.99 53.95 55.06 61.61
Rep 33.28 49.53 40.83 45.89 56.92 51.54 41.46 41.38 51.81 62.90
Other 9.91 0.00 0.00 5.72 0.00 0.90 20.41 9.68 3.95 1.23
Adj. Vote
Share (incl. Unctd)
Dem 45.3% 42.3% 52.9% 44.5% 44.1% 48.7% 45.7% 51.4% 49.7% 49.0%
Rep 42.2% 57.7% 47.1% 49.3% 55.9% 50.4% 36.4% 39.4% 46.8% 50.0%
Other 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 0.0% 0.9% 17.9% 9.2% 3.6% 1.0%
Adj. Dem
Margin 3.2% -15.5% 5.8% -4.8% -11.7% -1.7% 9.2% 12.0% 2.9% -1.0%
Recorded
Vote Share
Dem 42.86% 38.21% 51.05% 41.69% 40.83% 45.65% 43.01% 49.23% 48.38% 48.27%
Rep 43.56% 61.79% 48.95% 51.59% 59.17% 53.37% 37.45% 40.71% 47.87% 50.73%
Other 13.58% 0.00% 0.00% 6.72% 0.00% 0.98% 19.54% 10.05% 3.75% 1.00%
Recorded
Dem Margin -0.70% -23.58% 2.10% -9.89% -18.34% -7.73% 5.56% 8.52% 0.52% -2.46%
Dem
Reduction in Margin 3.85% 8.09% 3.71% 5.12% 6.60% 6.00% 3.69% 3.45% 2.42% 1.44%
Exit Poll
Dem 45.3% 42.3% 52.9% 44.5% 44.1% 49.8% 45.7% 50.2% 49.4% 52.0%
Rep 42.2% 57.7% 47.1% 49.3% 55.9% 49.7% 33.2% 37.5% 46.2% 47.0%
Percent
Voted 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
Race
White 69.1 64.5 60.9 60.9 61.4 59.1 63.6 56.0 56.4 60.3
Black 57.6 52.1 48.7 50.5 55.8 51.5 54.0 50.6 53.5 56.3
Hispanic na 37.5 31.8 29.9 32.6 28.8 28.9 26.7 27.5 28.0
Gender
Men 69.8 64.1 59.6 59.1 59.0 56.4 60.2 52.8 53.1 56.3
Women 66.0 62.0 58.8 59.4 60.8 58.3 62.3 55.5 56.2 60.1
Age
18-24 50.4 49.6 42.2 39.9 40.8 36.2 42.8 32.4 32.3 41.9
25-44 66.6 62.7 58.7 58.7 58.4 54.0 58.3 49.2 49.8 52.2
45-64 74.9 70.8 68.7 69.3 69.8 67.9 70.0 64.4 64.1 66.6
65+ 65.8 63.5 62.2 65.1 67.7 68.8 70.1 67.0 67.6 68.9
2008 Total Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
Election
Day 121.21 63.45 56.13 1.63 52.3% 46.3% 1.4%
Late
10.16 6.01 3.81 0.34 59.2% 37.5% 3.3%
Total 131.37 69.46 59.94 1.97 52.87% 45.62% 1.51%
2004
Total Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
Election
Day 116.7 56.4 59.8 0.40 48.3% 51.3% 0.4%
Late 5.6 2.6 2.2 0.80 46.9% 39.4% 13.7%
Total 122.3 59.0 62.0 1.20 48.27%
50.73% 1.00%
2000
Total Gore Bush Other Gore Bush Other
Election Day 102.6 49.5 49.3 3.8 48.2% 48.1% 3.7%
Late
2.8 1.5 1.2 0.1 53.6% 42.9% 3.5%
Total 105.4 51.00 50.46 3.95 48.38% 47.87% 3.75%
According to the 1988-2004 National Exit Polls, the Democrats won new voters by an average 14% margin.
2004
Total Mix Votes Kerry Votes Bush Votes
DNV2k 17% 20.791 57% 11.85 41% 8.52
1st-time 11% 13.453 55% 7.40 43% 5.78
Other 6% 7.338 60.7% 4.45 37.3% 2.74
2004F: 2:04pm Final NEP (13660 respondents)
2004P: 12:22am NEP (13047 respondents)
Percentage of First-time voters
84 88 92 96 00 2004F 2004P
Dem
38 47 46 54 52 53 55
Rep 61 51 32
34 43 46
43
Mortality Table NEP Annual Voter Votes Final 2000 NEP Total Voter Deaths
Age AnnualRate Age Rate Mort. Cast Mix Gore Bush Other Gore Bush Other
15-24 0.09% 18-29 0.10% 0.019 18.84 17% 48% 46% 6% 0.036 0.035 0.005
25-45 0.18% 30-44 0.20% 0.064 32.13 29% 48% 49% 3% 0.123 0.126 0.008
45-64 0.71% 45-59 0.60% 0.199 33.24 30% 48% 49% 3% 0.383 0.391 0.024
65+ 5.07% 60+ 4.00% 1.064 26.59 24% 51% 47% 2% 2.170 2.000 0.085
Total 1.22% 1.346 110.8 100% 48.72% 48.01% 3.27% 2.712 2.551 0.121
Total 53.98 53.20 3.62 5.02% 4.80% 3.35%
Mort. Total Gore Bush Other
Deaths 5.38 2.71 2.55 0.121
4
year 4.88% 50.37% 47.38% 2.25%
Annual 1.22% 1.26% 1.20% 0.84%
Gallup, IBD, Zogby, Dem Corp
Proj 53.4 43.8 9.7
Poll 50.6 43.2 7.2
UVA 2.8 0.5 2.4
83.7% 16.3% 67.4%
Ipsos, Pew
Proj 52.5 46.0 6.5
Poll 49.5 42.0 7.3
UVA 3.0 4.0 -0.8
42.9% 57.1% -14.2%
The Obama / McCain RV-LV share was 73.3-26.7%, closely
matching the NEP new voter share (71-27%).
The 1052 difference between the 3-poll RV sample (8581)
and the LV subset (7529) comprised 12.3% of the total RV sample.
Assuming 3% of votes cast were uncounted, there were
19.4m newly registered voters and others who did not vote in 2004 (14.3% of
135.43m).
RV Sample Obama McCain Spread
Gallup 2824 53 40 13
ABC 2762 54 41 13
Pew 2995 50 39 11
Total 8581 52.27 39.97 12.30
LV Sample Obama McCain Spread
Gallup 2472 53 42 11
ABC 2470 53 44 9
Pew 2587 49 42 7
Total 7529 51.63 42.66 9.0
RV
and LV Samples
Total 7916 RV 7099 LV
Obama McCain Obama McCain
Gallup 1497 1130 1310 1038
ABC 1491 1132 1309 1087
Pew 1498 1168 1268 1087
Total 4486 3430 3887 3212
Share 52.3% 40.0% 51.6% 42.7%
RV-LV Obama McCain Obama McCain Spread
Gallup 278 187 91 67.1% 32.9% 34.3%
ABC 228 182 46 80.0% 20.0% 60.0%
Pew 311 230 82 73.8% 26.2% 47.6%
Total 817 599 218 73.3% 26.7% 46.6%
Final
NEP new voters 71% 27%
The Kerry/Bush vote split of the difference (1335) in
sample between the RV and LV subset (57.8–42.2%) matched the 12:22am
Preliminary National Exit Poll 'New
Voter' shares: 57–41–2%. The 1769 difference — i.e. 5-poll RV
samples (10310) exclusive of their LV subsets (8541) — comprised 17.2% of the
RV total sample.
In 2004, there were approximately 21.4 million newly
registered and other new voters (DNV 2000) — 17% of the 125.74m total votes
cast.
Of the 21.4 million, approximately 13.8m (11% of 125.74)
were first-time voters. Kerry won 55% of first-timers. The average pre-election
poll projected turnout of registered voters was 82.8% (117m of 142m
registered). The census reported an 88.5% voter turnout (125.7m). There were
122.3m votes recorded.
0.75 0.25
Actual Poll Undecided
voters allocated
RV Poll Sample Kerry Bush Spread Kerry Bush Spread
11/1 CBS 1125 46 47 -1 50.50 48.50 2.0
10/31 Fox 1400 48 45 3 52.50 46.50 6.0
10/31 Gallup 1866 48 46 2 51.75 47.25 4.5
10/31 ABC 3511 48 47 1 51.00 48.00 3.0
10/30 Pew 2408 46 45 1 52.00 47.00 5.0
Average 2062 47.2 46.0 1.2 51.55 47.45 4.1
LV Poll Sample Kerry Bush Spread Kerry Bush Spread
Projected Turnout
11/1 CBS 939 47 49 -2 49.25 49.75 -0.5
83.5%
10/31 Fox 1200 48 46 2 51.75 47.25 4.5 85.7%
10/31 Gallup 1573 49 49 0 49.75 49.25 0.5 84.3%
10/31 ABC 2904 48 49 -1 49.50 49.50 0.0 82.7%
10/30 Pew 1925 48 51 -3 48.00 51.00 -3.0 79.9%
9629
RV 8294 LV
Kerry
Bush Kerry
Bush
CBS 518 529 441 460
Fox 672 630 576 552
Gallup 896 858 771 771
ABC 1685 1650 1394 1423
Pew 1108 1084 924 982
Total 4878 4751 4106 4188
47.3% 46.1% 48.1% 49.0%
RV-LV Kerry Bush Kerry% Bush% Spread
CBS 145 76 69 52.6% 47.4% 5.2%
Fox 174 96 78 55.2% 44.8% 10.3%
Gallup 213 125 88 58.8% 41.2% 17.6%
ABC 519 291 227 56.2% 43.8% 12.4%
Pew 286 184 102 64.3% 35.7% 28.7%
Total 1335 772 563 57.8% 42.2% 15.6%
NEP
12:22am new 57% 41%
Two-party 75%
UVA
y=.15+.41x y=.012+.581x
Kerry Turnout Kerry Turnout
47.8% 80% 47.7% 80%
48.2% 81% 48.3% 81%
48.6% 82% 48.8% 82%
49.0% 83% 49.4% 83%
Pre-election (5-poll) projected turnout
49.4% 84% 50.0% 84%
49.9% 85% 50.6% 85%
50.3% 86% 51.2% 86%
50.7% 87% 51.7% 87%
51.1% 88% 52.3% 88%
51.3% 88.5% 52.6% 88.5%
Census post-election turnout
51.5% 89% 52.9% 89%
51.9% 90% 53.5% 90%
0.60 0.40
Actual Poll Undecided
voters allocated
RV Poll Gore Bush Spread Gore Bush Spread
11/2 Newsweek 44 41 3 52.40 46.60 5.80
11/5 Pew 45 41 4 52.80 46.20 6.60
11/5 Gallup
46 44 2 51.40 47.60 3.80
Total
45 42 3 52.20 46.80 5.40
LV Poll Gore Bush Spread Gore Bush Spread
11/2 Newsweek 43 45 -2 49.60 49.40 0.20
11/5 Pew 43 45 -2 49.60 49.40 0.20
11/5 Gallup
45 47 -2 49.20 49.80 -0.60
Total
43.67 45.67 -2 49.47 49.53 -0.07
RV Polls LV Polls
Dem Rep Spread
Dem Rep Spread
2000 45.00 42.00 3.00 43.67 45.67 -2.00
2004 47.20 46.00 1.80 47.20 47.00 0.20
2008 52.33 40.00 12.33 52.00 43.00 9.00
UVA
Projected
2000 52.20 46.80 5.40 49.47 49.53 -0.07
2004 51.55 47.45 4.10 49.65 49.35 0.30
2008 56.96 41.54 15.42 54.63 43.88 10.75
Recorded
2000 48.87 48.38 0.49 48.87 48.38 0.49
2004 48.27 50.73 -2.46 48.27 50.73 -2.46
2008 52.87 45.62 7.25 52.87 45.62 7.25
Diff: Proj-Recd
2000 3.33 -1.58 4.91 0.60 1.15 -0.56
2004 3.28 -3.28 6.56 1.38 -1.38 2.76
2008 4.09 -4.08 8.17 1.76 -1.75 3.50
NATIONAL EXIT
POLL
11/2/04,
3:59pm 8349 respondents
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/pdfs/Mitofsky4zonedata/US2004G_3737_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf
11/2/04,
7:33pm 11027 respondents
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/pdfs/Mitofsky4zonedata/US2004G_3798_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf
11/3/04,
12:22am 13047 respondents
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/NEP13047.mht
11/3/04,
1:25pm 13660 respondents
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/pdfs/Mitofsky4zonedata/US2004G_3970_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf
2004 PRELIMINARY 2004 FINAL
2008 FINAL
12:22am (13047) 2pm (13660)
Voted Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other Voted Weight Obama McCain Other
2000
2004
DNV 20.79 17% 57% 41% 2% 17% 54% 45% 1% DNV 13% 71% 27% 2%
Gore 47.70 39% 91% 8% 1% 37% 90% 10% 0% Kerry 37% 89% 10% 1%
Bush 50.14 41% 10% 90% 0% 43% 9% 91% 0% Bush 46% 17% 82% 1%
Other 3.67 3% 64% 17% 19% 3% 71% 21% 8% Other 4% 66% 24% 10%
Share 100% 51.20% 47.50% 1.30% 100% 48.48% 51.11% 0.41% 100.0% 52.62% 45.94% 1.44%
Votes 122.30 122.30 62.62 58.09 1.59 122.30 59.29 62.50 0.50 131.37 69.13 60.35 1.89
2006 Generic
Pre-election Poll Trend vs. the 7:07pm and Final National Exit Poll
National Exit Poll
Source Dem Rep Other
Unadj. NEP 56.4 41.3% 2.3%
(Kerry/Bush returning voter share of the 2006 vote: 45.5/46.5%
CNN-7pm 55.2%
43.4% 1.5% (note: Kerry/Bush rounded by NEP to 45/47%
CNN-Final 52.2% 45.9% 2.5%
NYT
53.1% 44.9% 2.0%
Reported National
Vote
Wikipedia 57.7% 41.8% 0.5%
CBS- Nat 52.7% 45.1%
2.2%
CBS-State 51.3% 46.4% 2.3%
120
Pre-election Generic Poll Trend
Dem = 46.98 + .0419x
Rep = 38.06 +
.0047x
Substituting
x = 120 and allocating 60% of the undecided vote (UVA) to the Democrats:
Trend + UVA = Projection
Dem = 52.01 + 4.42 =
56.43%
Rep = 38.62 +
2.95 = 41.57%
National Exit Poll Timeline vs. the True Vote
(Generic Poll Trend)
VOTED 2004
--------- 7:07pm ----------- --------- 11pm Final --------- ----- True Generic Vote -----
Mix Dem Rep
Other Mix Dem
Rep Other Mix
Dem Rep Other
Kerry 45%
93% 6%
1% 43%
92% 7%
1% 49%
93% 6% 1%
Bush
47% 17% 82%
1% 49%
15% 83%
2% 46%
17% 82% 1%
Other
4% 67%
23% 10%
4% 66%
23% 11% 1%
67% 23% 10%
DNV
4% 67%
30% 3%
4% 66%
32% 2%
4% 67%
30% 3%
TOTAL 100% 55.2% 43.4% 1.4% 100% 52.2% 45.9% 1.9% 100% 56.7% 42.1% 1.2%
1988-2008 SUMMARY
Note:
preliminary 2008 National Exit Poll data is not available; summary averages are
for 1988-2004.
True Vote Unadjusted
Exit Poll
Recorded Vote True
(D) Recorded Margin Diff
Dem Rep Margin Dem Rep Margin Dem Rep Margin Margin
ExitP True
Average 51.68% 42.63% 9.05% 48.82% 44.12% 4.70% 47.90% 45.96% 1.94% 10.86 -3.82% 2.94%
2008 57.2% 41.1% 16.1% na na na 52.9% 45.6% 7.2% 21.82 na na
2004 52.9% 45.7% 7.2% 52.0% 47.0% 4.9% 48.3% 50.7% -2.5% 9.10 -7.4% 2.3%
2000 49.1% 46.8% 2.3% 49.4% 46.9% 2.5% 48.4% 47.9% 0.5% 2.52 -2.0% -0.3%
1996 50.6% 40.5% 10.0% 50.2% 39.8% 10.4% 49.2% 40.7% 8.5% 10.53 -1.9% -0.4%
1992 50.4% 32.5% 17.9% 45.7% 34.7% 11.0% 43.0% 37.4% 5.6% 20.46 -5.4% 7.0%
1988 49.8% 49.1% 0.7% 46.8% 52.2% -5.3% 45.6% 53.4% -7.7% 0.74 -2.4% 6.1%
TRUE VOTE
CALCULATION
2008
Vote04 Vote Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
DNV 21.7 16.0% 15.42 5.86 0.43 71% 27% 2%
Kerry 59.1 43.7% 52.63 5.32 1.18 89% 9% 2%
Bush 53.4 39.5% 9.09 43.82 0.53 17% 82% 1%
Other 1.1 0.8% 0.75 0.27 0.11 66% 24% 10%
Total 135.4 100.0% 77.88 55.28 2.27 57.5% 40.8% 1.7%
Recorded 131.37 69.5 59.9 2.0 52.9% 45.6% 1.5%
2004
Vote00 Vote Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 23.5 18.7% 13.40 9.64
0.47 57% 41% 2%
Gore 50.5 40.2% 45.96 4.04 0.51 91% 8% 1%
Bush 47.9 38.1% 4.79 43.11 0.0 10% 90% 0%
Other 3.8 3.0% 2.43 0.65 0.72 64% 17% 19%
Total 125.7 100.0% 66.57 57.47 1.70 52.9% 45.7% 1.4%
Recorded 122.3 59.0 62.0 1.2 48.3% 50.7% 1.0%
2000
Vote96 Vote Mix Gore Bush Other Gore Bush Other
DNV 16.0 14.4% 8.32 6.88 0.80 52% 43% 5%
Clinton 48.7 44.0% 41.89 4.38 2.44 86% 9% 5%
Dole 37.0 33.4% 2.59 33.27 1.11 7% 90% 3%
Other 9.1 8.2% 2.47 6.48 0.18 27% 71% 2%
Total 110.8 100.0% 55.26 51.02 4.53 49.9% 46.0% 4.1%
Recorded 105.42 51.0 50.5 4.0 48.4% 47.9% 3.7%
1996
Vote92 Vote Mix Clinton
Dole Perot Clinton Dole Perot
DNV 8.1 7.7% 4.35 2.74 0.97 54% 34% 12%
Clinton 44.6 42.5% 37.90 4.01 2.68 85% 9% 6%
Bush 35.2 33.6% 4.58 28.54 2.11 13% 81% 6%
Other 17.1 16.3% 7.70 5.99 3.42 45% 35% 20%
Total 105.0 100.0% 54.53 41.29 9.18 51.9% 39.3% 8.7%
Recorded 97.87 47.4 41.3 9.2 49.2% 40.7% 10.1%
1992
Vote88 Vote Mix Clinton
Bush Perot Clinton Bush Perot
DNV 21.0 18.4% 9.67 6.72 4.62 46% 32% 22%
Dukakis45.3 39.7% 37.62 2.27 5.44 83% 5% 12%
Bush 46.9 41.1% 7.04 30.51 9.39 15% 65% 20%
Other 0.8 0.7% 0.41 0.41 0.00 50% 50% 0%
Total 114.1 100.0% 54.74 39.91 19.45 48.0% 35.0% 17.0%
Recorded 104.42 44.9 39.1 20.4 43.0% 37.5% 19.5%
1988
Vote84 Vote Mix Dukakis
Bush Other Dukakis Bush Other
DNV 11.4 11.1% 5.35 5.81 0.23 47% 51% 2%
Mondale38.8 37.9% 35.66 2.71 0.39 92% 7% 1%
Reagan 52.0 50.9% 9.89 41.64 0.52 19% 80% 1%
Total 102.2 100.0% 50.90 50.16 1.14 49.8% 49.1% 1.1%
Recorded 91.60 41.8 48.9 0.91 45.6% 53.4% 1.0%
2004 Calculated Vote
2000 Recorded Uncounted Cast Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Weight Kerry Bush Other
DNV 25.62 20.4% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 51.00 4.04 55.04 2.69 52.36 95% 49.74 39.6% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 50.46 1.18 51.64 2.52 49.12 95% 46.67 37.1% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3.95 0.16 4.11 0.20 3.91 95% 3.72 2.96% 64% 17% 19%
Total 105.42 5.38 110.80 5.41 105.39 100.1 125.74 100% 53.21% 45.42% 1.36%
Cast
125.74 66.91 57.11 1.72
Recorded 48.27% 50.73% 1.00%
122.30 59.03 62.04 1.23
2008 Calculated Vote
2004 Exit Poll Uncounted Cast Deaths Alive Turnout Voted Weight Obama McCain Other
DNV 21.71 16.0% 71% 27% 2%
Kerry 63.59 1.79 65.38 3.14 62.25 95% 59.13 43.7% 89% 9% 2%
Bush 57.47 1.62 59.09 2.84 56.26 95% 53.44 39.5% 17% 82% 1%
Other 1.23 0.03 1.26 0.06 1.20 95% 1.14 0.84% 66% 24% 10%
Total 122.30 3.45 125.74 6.04 119.70 113.7 135.43 100% 57.51% 40.82% 1.67%
Cast
135.43 77.88 55.28 2.27
Recorded 52.87% 45.62% 1.51%
131.37 69.46 59.93 1.98
NATIONAL EXIT
POLL
2004 PRELIMINARY 2004 FINAL 2008 FINAL
12:22am (13047) (13660)
CATEGORY Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other Obama McCain Other
Average 50.85% 47.88% 1.27% 47.95% 51.08% 0.97% 52.69% 45.57% 1.74%
Total Votes 62.19 58.55 1.55 58.64 62.47 1.19 69.22 59.86 2.29
Max 51.63% 48.51% 1.85% 48.62% 51.62% 1.46% 53.13% 46.14% 2.24%
Min 50.08% 47.24% 0.69% 47.29% 50.54% 0.48% 52.25% 44.99% 1.25%
Gender 50.78% 48.22% 1.00% 47.78% 51.22% 1.00% 52.71% 45.35% 1.94%
Party-ID 51.07% 47.85% 1.08% 47.89% 51.22% 0.89% 52.67% 45.14% 2.19%
Voted 2000 51.20% 47.50% 1.30% 48.48% 51.11% 0.41% 52.62% 45.94% 1.44%
Region 50.53% 47.95% 1.52% 48.24% 51.08% 0.68% 52.76% 45.56% 1.68%
Education 50.43% 48.18% 1.39% 47.82% 51.24% 0.94% 52.31% 45.93% 1.76%
Race 50.98% 47.61% 1.41% 47.81% 50.99% 1.20% 52.82% 45.57% 1.61%
Age 50.26% 47.69% 2.05% 47.96% 51.28% 0.76% 52.29% 45.71% 2.00%
Income 51.07% 47.75% 1.18% 48.13% 51.02% 0.85% 52.96% 44.99% 2.05%
Ideology 50.18% 48.60% 1.22% 47.25% 51.54% 1.21% 52.56% 45.88% 1.56%
Religion 50.78% 48.01% 1.21% 47.99% 50.94% 1.07% 53.07% 45.58% 1.35%
Military 51.20% 47.62% 1.18% 48.38% 50.44% 1.18% 52.65% 45.50% 1.85%
Decided 51.23% 47.93% 0.84% 47.50% 51.22% 1.28% 52.67% 45.81% 1.52%
Location 51.40% 47.47% 1.13% 48.14% 50.73% 1.13% 52.88% 45.41% 1.71%
2004 PRELIMINARY 2004 FINAL 2008 FINAL
12:22am (13047) (13660)
GENDER
Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Obama McCain Other
Male 46.0% 47% 52% 1% 46% 44% 55% 1% 46% 49% 48% 3%
Fem 54.0% 54% 45% 1% 54% 51% 48% 1% 54% 56% 43% 1%
Share 100% 50.78% 48.22% 1.00% 100% 47.78% 51.22% 1.00% 100% 52.71% 45.35% 1.94%
Votes 122.30 62.10 58.97 1.22 122.30 58.43 62.64 1.22 131.37 69.25 59.58 2.55
PARTY ID Change in mix: Dem -1%; Rep +2%;
Ind -1%
Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Obama McCain Other
Dem 38% 91% 9% 0% 37% 89% 11% 0% 39% 89% 10% 1%
Rep 35% 7% 93% 0% 37% 6% 93% 1% 31% 9% 89% 2%
Ind 27% 52% 44% 4% 26% 49% 49% 2% 30% 52% 44% 4%
Share 100% 51.07% 47.85% 1.08% 100% 47.89% 51.22% 0.89% 100% 52.67% 45.14% 2.19%
Votes 122.30 62.46 58.52 1.32 122.30 58.57 62.64 1.09 131.37 69.19 59.30 2.88
2004 PRELIMINARY 2004 FINAL 2008 FINAL
12:22am (13047) (13660)
VOTED IN 2000 Change in mix:
Gore -2%+ Bush +2%
Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV 17% 57% 41% 2% 17% 54% 45% 1% DNV 13% 71% 27% 2%
Gore 39% 91% 8% 1% 37% 90% 10% 0% Kerry 37% 89% 10% 1%
Bush 41% 10% 90% 0% 43% 9% 91% 0% Bush 46% 17% 82% 1%
Other 3% 64% 17% 19% 3% 71% 21% 8% Other 4% 66% 24% 10%
Share 100% 51.20% 47.50% 1.30% 100% 48.48% 51.11% 0.41% 100.0% 52.62% 45.94% 1.44%
Votes 122.30 62.62 58.09 1.59 122.30 59.29 62.50 0.50 131.37 69.13 60.35 1.89
REGION
Change in mix: South +1%; West
-1% <
Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Obama McCain Other
East 22% 58% 41% 1% 22% 56% 43% 1% 22% 59% 40% 1%
Midw 26% 50% 49% 1% 26% 48% 51% 1% 24% 54% 44% 2%
South 31% 44% 54% 2% 32% 42% 58% 0% 32% 46% 53% 1%
West 21% 53% 45% 2% 20% 50% 49% 1% 22% 55% 42% 3%
Share 100% 50.53% 47.95% 1.52% 100% 48.24% 51.08% 0.68% 100% 52.76% 45.56% 1.68%
Votes 122.30 61.80 58.64 1.86 122.30 59.00 62.47 0.83 131.37 69.31 59.85 2.21
EDUCATION
Change in mix: Some college +1%; Post Grad -1%
Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Obama McCain Other
NoHS 4% 53% 46% 1% 4% 50% 49% 1% 4% 63% 36% 1%
HSG 22% 50% 48% 2% 22% 47% 52% 1% 20% 52% 47% 1%
Col 31% 48% 51% 1% 32% 46% 54% 0% 31% 51% 47% 2%
ColG 26% 49% 50% 1% 26% 46% 52% 2% 28% 49% 49% 2%
PostG 17% 57% 41% 2% 16% 55% 44% 1% 17% 58% 40% 2%
Share 100% 50.43% 48.18% 1.39% 100% 47.82% 51.24% 0.94% 100% 52.31% 45.93% 1.76%
Votes 122.30 61.67 58.92 1.70 122.30 58.48 62.66 1.15 131.37 68.72 60.34 2.31
2004 PRELIMINARY 2004 FINAL 2008 FINAL
12:22am (13047) (13660)
RACE AND GENDER
Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Obama McCain Other
WMale 36% 40% 59% 1% 36% 37% 62% 1% 36% 41% 57% 2%
WFem 41% 47% 51% 2% 41% 44% 55% 1% 39% 46% 53% 1%
NwMale 10% 73% 26% 1% 10% 67% 30% 3% 11% 76% 22% 2%
NwFem 13% 77% 22% 1% 13% 75% 24% 1% 14% 84% 14% 2%
Share 100% 50.98% 47.61% 1.41% 100% 47.81% 50.99% 1.20% 100% 52.82% 45.57% 1.61%
Votes 122.30 62.35 58.22 1.72 122.30 58.47 62.36 1.47 131.37 69.39 59.87 2.12
AGE
Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Obama McCain Other
18-29 17% 56% 42% 2% 17% 54% 45% 1% 18% 66% 32% 2%
30-44 29% 48% 49% 3% 29% 46% 53% 1% 29% 52% 46% 2%
45-59 30% 51% 47% 2% 30% 48% 51% 1% 37% 49% 49% 2%
60+ 24% 48% 51% 1% 24% 46% 54% 0% 16% 45% 53% 2%
Share 100% 50.26% 47.69% 2.05% 100% 47.96% 51.28% 0.76% 100% 52.29% 45.71% 2.00%
Votes 122.30 61.47 58.32 2.51 122.30 58.65 62.71 0.93 131.37 68.69 60.05 2.63
INCOME Change in mix: 0-15 -1%; 75-100
+1%
Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Obama McCain Other
0-15K 9% 65% 34% 1% 8% 63% 36% 1% 6% 73% 25% 2%
15-30 15% 60% 39% 1% 15% 57% 42% 1% 12% 60% 37% 3%
30-50 22% 53% 46% 1% 22% 50% 49% 1% 19% 55% 43% 2%
50-75 23% 46% 53% 1% 23% 43% 56% 1% 22% 48% 49% 3%
75-100 13% 48% 51% 1% 14% 45% 55% 0% 15% 51% 48% 1%
100-150 11% 43% 55% 2% 11% 42% 57% 1% 14% 48% 51% 1%
150-200 4% 43% 55% 2% 4% 42% 58% 0% 6% 48% 50% 2%
200+ 3% 43% 55% 2% 3% 35% 63% 2% 6% 52% 46% 2%
Share 100% 51.07% 47.75% 1.18% 100% 48.13% 51.02% 0.85% 100% 52.96% 44.99% 2.05%
Votes 122.30 62.46 58.40 1.44 122.30 58.86 62.39 1.04 131.37 69.57 59.10 2.69
2004 PRELIMINARY 2004 FINAL 2008 FINAL
12:22am (13047) (13660)
IDEOLOGY Change in mix: Lib -1%; Con +1%
Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Obama McCain Other
Lib 22% 86% 12% 2% 21% 85% 13% 2% 22% 88% 10% 2%
Mod 45% 57% 42% 1% 45% 54% 45% 1% 44% 60% 39% 1%
Con 33% 17% 82% 1% 34% 15% 84% 1% 34% 20% 78% 2%
Share 100% 50.18% 48.60% 1.22% 100% 47.25% 51.54% 1.21% 100% 52.56% 45.88% 1.56%
Votes 122.30 61.37 59.44 1.49 122.30 57.78 63.03 1.48 131.37 69.05 60.27 2.05
RELIGION
Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Obama McCain Other
Prot 53% 43% 56% 1% 53% 40% 59% 1% 54% 45% 54% 1%
Cath 27% 50% 49% 1% 27% 47% 52% 1% 27% 54% 45% 1%
Jewish 3% 78% 22% 0% 3% 74% 25% 1% 2% 78% 21% 1%
Other 7% 75% 22% 3% 7% 74% 24% 2% 6% 73% 22% 5%
None 10% 69% 29% 2% 10% 67% 32% 1% 11% 75% 23% 2%
Share 100% 50.78% 48.01% 1.21% Total
47.99% 50.94% 1.07% 100% 53.07% 45.58% 1.35%
Votes 122.30 62.10 58.71 1.48 122.30 58.69 62.30 1.31 131.37 69.72 59.88 1.77
MILITARY
Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Obama McCain Other
Yes 18% 43% 55% 2% 18% 41% 57% 2% 18% 45% 54% 1%
No 82% 53% 46% 1% 82% 50% 49% 1% 82% 54% 44% 2%
Share 100% 51.20% 47.62% 1.18% 100% 48.38% 50.44% 1.18% 100% 52.65% 45.50% 1.85%
Votes 122.30 62.62 58.24 1.44 122.30 59.17 61.69 1.44 131.37 69.17 59.77 2.43
2004 PRELIMINARY 2004 FINAL 2008 FINAL
12:22am (13047) (13660)
WHEN DECIDED
Change in mix: Today -1%; Last3 +1%
Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Obama McCain Other
Today 6% 53% 40% 7% 5% 52% 45% 3% 4% 50% 45% 5%
3days 3% 53% 41% 6% 4% 55% 42% 3% 3% 46% 52% 2%
7days 2% 48% 50% 2% 2% 48% 51% 1% 3% 48% 50% 2%
30days 10% 60% 38% 2% 10% 54% 44% 2% 15% 54% 43% 3%
Over30 79% 50% 50% 0% 79% 46% 53% 1% 75% 53% 46% 1%
Share 100% 51.23% 47.93% 0.84% 100% 47.50% 51.22% 1.28% 100% 52.67% 45.81% 1.52%
Votes 122.30 62.65 58.62 1.03 122.30 58.09 62.64 1.57 131.37 69.19 60.18 2.00
COMMUNITY
Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Obama McCain Other
BigCity 13% 64% 36% 0% 13% 61% 39% 0% 12% 64% 35% 1%
SmCity 18% 53% 45% 2% 18% 49% 49% 2% 18% 63% 35% 2%
Suburbs 45% 50% 49% 1% 45% 47% 52% 1% 50% 50% 48% 2%
SmTowns 8% 52% 46% 2% 8% 48% 50% 2% 8% 50% 48% 2%
Rural 16% 43% 56% 1% 16% 40% 59% 1% 12% 42% 57% 1%
Share 100% 51.40% 47.47% 1.13% 100% 48.14% 50.73% 1.13% 100% 52.88% 45.41% 1.71%
Votes 122.30 58.87 62.04 1.38 131.37 69.47 59.66 2.25
2008 Election Model: Obama Electoral Vote and Popular Vote Share Trend
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel_30624_image001.gif
2008 Election Calculator: Obama Vote Margin Sensitivity to share of returning Kerry and Bush voters
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionCalculator_21811_image001.gif
2008 Election Calculator: Obama Vote Share Sensitivity to share of returning Kerry and Bush voters
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionCalculator_23895_image001.gif
2006 Pre-election Generic Poll Trend
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Election2006_16921_image001.png
Probabilities of Democratic House Gain
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Election2006_22243_image001.png
2004 Pre-Election and Exit Poll Vote Share Simulation
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/InteractiveElectionSimulation_12255_image001.png
