Exit Poll Response Optimization
TruthIsAll
1250 Precincts Categorized by Partisanship Groupings
Edison-Mitofsky summarized the exit poll data for 1250 precincts separated into five partisanship groupings, from strong Bush to strong Kerry. The optimization model used the Excel “Solver” algorithm to determine a feasible solution: Kerry won the 2-party vote by 52.15-47.85%. The model used the final recorded 2-party vote, within precinct error (WPE) and response rates as constraints.
The resulting vote shares exactly matched the 12:22am National Exit Poll “Voted 2000” shares.
Kerry Exit Poll vs. Actual Vote by Precinct category
Effect of Incremental Aggregate Alpha on Precinct Category Alpha
Alpha (Kerry/Bush response) by Precinct Category
Exit Poll Response by Precinct Category
Sensitivity of Kerry Vote Pct and WPE to Aggregate Alpha (K/B)
Bush Percentage of Refusers by Precinct Category Required for Recorded Vote
Given:
1- Recorded 2-party vote (Bush 51.24- Kerry 48.76%)
2- Partisanship precinct exit poll response
3- Partisanship "Within Precinct Error" (WPE)
Calculate:
Kerry’s true vote - aggregate and by partisanship category
Kerry 52.15-Bush 47.85%
Assume Census 125.74m total votes cast
2-party
Vote% Vote
Kerry 48.76% 60.70
Bush 51.24% 63.78
Total 100% 124.48
Optimizer results:
(2-party)
Kerry Bush
Vote 64.91 59.57m
2-party 52.15% 47.85%
Deviation -3.39% 3.39%
Vote Deviation -5.89 2.47
Dev /2-pty -6.50% 7.09%
Vote share 51.62% 47.37%
PROBABILITY of the 3.39% discrepancy between exit poll and vote:
1 in 67 billion
PARTISAN ALPHA
Kerry strongholds: 1.052
Other precincts: 1.203
WEIGHTED AVERAGE (AGGREGATE)
Response: 53.59%
K/B (alpha): 1.165
SHARE OF EXIT POLL REFUSERS
Kerry 44.87%
Bush 55.13%
PARTISANSHIP CONSTRAINTS (1250 PRECINCTS)
Strong Bush Even Strong Kerry
Precincts 40 415 540 165 90
KERRY SHARE
Min 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Max 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
RESPONSE
Min 56% 55% 52% 55% 53%
Max 56% 55% 52% 55% 53%
ALPHA (K/B)
Min 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Max 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
WPE
Min 10.0% 6.1% 8.5% 5.9% 0.3%
Max 10.0% 6.1% 8.5% 5.9% 0.3%
Actual
E-M 10.0% 6.1% 8.5% 5.9% 0.3%
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY
Poll Count Diff Poll Count Diff
Kerry 52.15% 48.76% -3.39% 64.91 60.70 -4.22
Bush 47.85% 51.24% 3.39% 59.57 63.79 4.22
Diff 4.29% -2.48% -6.77% 5.346 -3.09 -8.43
Pship StrongB Bush Even Kerry StrongK Total
Prcts 40 415 540 165 90 1250
Votes 3.98 41.33 53.78 16.43 8.96 124.48
Pct 3.2% 33.2% 43.2% 13.2% 7.2% 100.0%
Resp 56.0% 55.0% 52.0% 55.0% 53.0% 53.59%
ALPHA
K/B 1.50 1.17 1.19 1.08 0.10 1.17
K/ 50B 75.1 58.7 59.3 54.1 49.8 58.2
VOTE
Kerry 0.79 14.51 24.58 11.87 8.95 60.70
Pct 19.9% 35.1% 45.7% 72.2% 99.8% 48.76%
Bush 3.19 26.82 29.20 4.56 0.02 63.79
Pct 80.1% 64.9% 54.3% 27.8% 0.2% 51.24%
RESPONDERS
Kerry 0.99 15.77 26.86 12.35 8.93 64.91
Pct 24.9% 38.2% 50.0% 75.2% 99.7% 52.15%
Bush 2.99 25.55 26.91 4.08 0.03 59.57
Pct 75.1% 61.8% 50.0% 24.8% 0.3% 47.85%
REFUSERS
Kerry 13.5% 31.4% 41.1% 68.6% 100% 44.87%
Bush 86.5% 68.6% 58.9% 31.4% 0.0% 55.13%
VOTE DEVIATION
Kerry 0.20 1.26 2.29 0.48 0.01 4.22
Pct 20.1% 8.0% 8.5% 3.9% 0.20% 6.50%
WPE
Calc 10.0% 6.1% 8.5% 5.9% -0.30% 6.77%
E-M 10.0% 6.1% 8.5% 5.9% -0.30% 6.77%
Sensitivity Analysis:
Probability of Kerry vote discrepancy as a function of Kerry/Bush response (alpha)
K/B Kerry WPE Prob: 1 in
1.00 48.77% 0.01% 2
1.02 49.19% 0.85% 5
1.04 49.62% 1.70% 21
1.06 50.04% 2.55% 160
1.08 50.47% 3.40% 2,334
1.10 50.90% 4.25% 65,300
1.12 51.32% 5.11% 3,555,747
1.14 51.78% 6.02% 559,644,344
1.15 51.99% 6.45% 7,521,468,533
1.155 52.15% 6.77% 62,893,081,761
1.16 52.21% -6.87% 119,593,696,538
1.17 52.42% -7.29% 2,250,674,476,447
_____________________________________________________________________
Location-size Exit Poll Optimization
The Location Response Optimizer categorized the states into five groupings by size. The input constraints were location WPE and response (completion) rates provided by Edison-Mitofsky. Kerry won the 2-party vote by 52.15-47.85%, exactly the same margin as the 1250 precinct optimization.
Given:
1- Recorded vote: Bush 50.73- Kerry 48.27%
(2 party: Bush 51.24%- Kerry 48.76%)
2- Location exit poll response
3- Location "Within Precinct Error" (WPE)
Calculate:
True 2-party Vote share (aggregate and by location)
Kerry 52.15-Bush 47.85%
Assume Census 125.74m total votes cast
WPE WPE
Size Weight Votes Mean Median Prct Response
Big City 13% 16.35 7.9 5.9 105 0.52
Small City 18% 22.63 8.5 7.7 236 0.54
Suburbs 45% 56.58 8.1 7.9 487 0.53
Small Town 8% 10.06 4.9 5.0 126 0.57
Rural 16% 20.12 3.6 3.6 296 0.55
Total 125.74 7.17 6.68 1250 0.54
EXIT POLL (2-party)
Kerry Bush
Vote 64.91 59.58
Vote share 52.15% 47.85%
% Deviation -3.39% 3.39%
Vote Dev -5.88 2.47
Dev/2-pty -6.50% 7.08%
True Vote 51.62% 47.37%
%Deviation 9.06% -4.15% ;
WEIGHTED AVERAGE (AGGREGATE) RESPONSE: 53.98%
PERCENT OF EXIT POLL REFUSERS REQUIRED TO MATCH RECORDED VOTE
Kerry 44.83%
Bush 55.17%
Rural Town Suburb City Big City
Prcts 296 126 487 236 105
23.7% 10.1% 39.0% 18.9% 8.4%
Votes 20.12 10.06 56.58 22.63 16.35
16% 8% 45% 18% 13%
Kerry NEP share
12:22am 43% 52% 50% 53% 64%
Final 40% 48% 47% 49% 61%
TRUE 40% 50% 49% 59% 73%
RANGE CONSTRAINTS
KERRY WIN%
Min 35% 45% 45% 45% 60%
Max 55% 55% 55% 60% 100%
RESPONSE
Min 55% 57% 53% 54% 52%
Max 55% 57% 53% 54% 52%
ALPHA (K/B)
Min 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50
Max 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
WPE
Min 3.6% 4.9% 8.1% 8.5% 7.9%
Max 3.6% 4.9% 8.1% 8.5% 7.9%
E-M 3.6% 4.9% 8.1% 8.5% 7.9%
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY
...... Poll Count Diff Poll Count Diff
Kerry 52.15% 48.76% -3.39% 64.91 60.70 -4.21
Bush 47.85% 51.24% 3.39% 59.57 63.78 4.21
Diff 4.29% -2.48% -6.77% 5.34 -3.09 -8.43
..... Rural Town Suburb City Big City Total
Prcts 296 126 487 236 105 1250
2-pty 29.48 12.55 48.50 23.50 10.46 124.48
Pct 23.7% 10.1% 39.0% 18.9% 8.4% 100.0%
Response 55.0% 57.0% 53.0% 54.0% 52.0% 53.98%
ALPHA
K/B 0.792 0.800 0.840 0.835 0.800 0.82
K/ 50B 39.6 40.0 42.0 41.8 40.0 41.0
VOTE
Kerry 12.69 6.10 21.82 11.75 8.34 60.69
Pct 43.0% 48.6% 45.0% 50.0% 79.7% 48.76%
Bush 16.79 6.45 26.67 11.75 2.12 63.78
Pct 57.0% 51.4% 55.0% 50.0% 20.3% 51.24%
RESPONDERS
Kerry 13.22 6.41 23.79 12.75 8.75 64.91
Pct 44.8% 51.1% 49.1% 54.3% 83.7% 52.15%
Bush 16.26 6.14 24.71 10.75 1.71 59.57
Pct 55.2% 48.9% 51.0% 45.8% 16.3% 47.85%
REFUSERS
Kerry 40.8% 45.4% 40.4% 45.0% 75.4% 44.83%
Bush 59.2% 54.6% 59.6% 55.0% 24.6% 55.17%
VOTE DEVIATION
Kerry 0.53 0.31 1.96 1.00 0.41 4.21
Pct 4.0% 4.8% 8.3% 7.8% 4.7% 6.49%
WPE
Calc 3.6% 4.9% 8.1% 8.5% 7.9% 6.77%
E-M 3.6% 4.9% 8.1% 8.5% 7.9% 6.77%
Diff 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
_____________________________________________________________________
State Exit Poll Response Optimizer
The State Exit Poll Response Optimizer categorized the states into five (High Bush to High Kerry) groupings and used state exit poll response rates provided by Edison-Mitofsky. State vote discrepancies were analogous to WPE. Kerry was the winner: 51.8-47.2%. The model confirmed the Precinct Response Optimizer: non-response rates were higher in strong Kerry states, again contradicting the non-response (rBr) hypothesis.
A Regression analysis of Kerry state poll share and recorded vote vs. the state exit poll completion rate confirmed the optimizer.
Given: Recorded vote
2-Party Total
Kerry 48.76% 48.27%
Bush 51.24% 50.72%
2- State exit poll average response rate
3- State exit poll average WPE
Calculate: TRUE VOTE
2-Party Total
Kerry 52.30% 51.77%
Bush 47.70% 47.21%
WPE 6.77% 7.08%
PROBABILITY of 3.54% discrepancy between True Vote and recorded vote:
1 in 3.5 trillion
WEIGHTED AVERAGE (AGGREGATE)
Response 53.32%
REFUSER VOTE SHARE REQUIRED TO MATCH RECORDED VOTE
Kerry 44.86%
Bush 55.14%
CALCULATED TRUE VOTE Deviation from Recorded
State Votes Weight RESP. Kerry Pct Bush Pct Votes Pct WPE
Total 121,056 100% 53.32% 63,314 52.30% 57,741 47.70% 4287 6.77% 7.08%
HIGH BUSH
UT 905 0.75% 59.6% 270 29.9% 635 70.1% 29 10.7% 6.4%
WY 238 0.20% 66.0% 76 31.8% 163 68.2% 5 6.8% 4.3%
ID 590 0.49% 63.2% 184 31.2% 406 68.8% 3 1.6% 1.0%
NE 767 0.63% 66.5% 285 37.2% 482 62.8% 31 10.9% 8.1%
OK 1,464 1.21% 53.2% 490 33.5% 974 66.5% 14 2.8% 1.9%
BUSH
ND 308 0.25% 63.0% 103 33.5% 205 66.5% 8 7.8% 5.2%
AK 302 0.25% 53.2% 126 41.6% 176 58.4% 14 11.5% 9.6%
AL 1,870 1.55% 58.3% 800 42.8% 1,071 57.2% 106 13.2% 11.3%
KS 1,171 0.97% 64.5% 445 38.0% 726 62.0% 10 2.2% 1.7%
TX 7,360 6.08% 58.3% 3,009 40.9% 4,350 59.1% 177 5.9% 4.8%
SD 382 0.32% 42.7% 141 37.0% 241 63.0% 8 5.7% 4.2%
MT 440 0.36% 63.0% 170 38.6% 270 61.4% 4 2.3% 1.8%
IN 2,448 2.02% 38.6% 987 40.3% 1,461 59.7% 18 1.9% 1.5%
KY 1,782 1.47% 52.6% 712 39.9% 1,070 60.1% 1 0.1% 0.1%
MS 1,130 0.93% 49.6% 522 46.1% 609 53.9% 64 12.2% 11.3%
SC 1,600 1.32% 59.4% 742 46.4% 858 53.6% 80 10.8% 10.0%
GA 3,280 2.71% 63.9% 1,402 42.7% 1,878 57.3% 36 2.6% 2.2%
LA 1,922 1.59% 47.8% 857 44.6% 1,066 55.4% 37 4.3% 3.8%
TN 2,421 2.00% 66.7% 1,043 43.1% 1,378 56.9% 6 0.6% 0.5%
WV 750 0.62% 48.7% 305 40.6% 446 59.4% 22 7.1% 5.8%
NC 3,487 2.88% 52.6% 1,723 49.4% 1,764 50.6% 197 11.4% 11.3%
AZ 1,998 1.65% 57.3% 939 47.0% 1,058 53.0% 46 4.9% 4.6%
AR 1,043 0.86% 60.2% 473 45.3% 571 54.7% 3 0.6% 0.5%
VA 3,172 2.62% 56.4% 1,580 49.8% 1,592 50.2% 125 7.9% 7.9%
MO 2,715 2.24% 47.0% 1,338 49.3% 1,377 50.7% 79 5.9% 5.8%
EVEN
FL 7,548 6.24% 49.0% 3,870 51.3% 3,678 48.7% 287 7.4% 7.6%
CO 2,103 1.74% 55.5% 1,066 50.7% 1,037 49.3% 64 6.0% 6.1%
NV 816 0.67% 49.1% 438 53.7% 377 46.3% 41 9.4% 10.1%
OH 5,599 4.62% 45.0% 3,045 54.4% 2,554 45.6% 305 10.0% 10.9%
NM 748 0.62% 56.9% 400 53.5% 348 46.5% 29 7.3% 7.8%
IA 1,494 1.23% 52.6% 764 51.2% 730 48.8% 22 2.9% 3.0%
WI 2,968 2.45% 55.3% 1,559 52.5% 1,408 47.5% 70 4.5% 4.7%
NH 672 0.55% 44.0% 386 57.5% 286 42.5% 46 11.8% 13.6%
PA 5,732 4.73% 46.8% 3,190 55.7% 2,542 44.3% 252 7.9% 8.8%
MI 4,793 3.96% 50.2% 2,630 54.9% 2,163 45.1% 151 5.7% 6.3%
MN 2,792 2.31% 45.3% 1,575 56.4% 1,217 43.6% 130 8.2% 9.3%
OR 1,810 1.50% 53.0% 943 52.1% 867 47.9% 0 0.0% 0.0%
KERRY
NJ 3,581 2.96% 59.7% 2,085 58.2% 1,496 41.8% 174 8.3% 9.7%
WA 2,815 2.33% 53.8% 1,628 57.8% 1,187 42.2% 118 7.3% 8.4%
DE 372 0.31% 57.5% 230 61.8% 142 38.2% 30 12.9% 15.9%
HI 426 0.35% 53.4% 242 56.8% 184 43.2% 10 4.1% 4.7%
ME 727 0.60% 61.3% 411 56.5% 316 43.5% 14 3.4% 3.8%
CA 12,255 10.12% 50.5% 7,413 60.5% 4,842 39.5% 668 9.0% 10.9%
IL 5,239 4.33% 51.9% 3,007 57.4% 2,231 42.6% 115 3.8% 4.4%
CT 1,551 1.28% 51.0% 979 63.1% 572 36.9% 122 12.4% 15.7%
MD 2,359 1.95% 59.4% 1,430 60.6% 929 39.4% 96 6.7% 8.1%
HIGH KERRY
NY 7,277 6.01% 57.9% 4,729 65.0% 2,548 35.0% 415 8.8% 11.4%
VT 305 0.25% 53.1% 207 67.8% 98 32.2% 23 11.1% 15.0%
RI 429 0.35% 44.2% 270 62.9% 159 37.1% 10 3.7% 4.7%
MA 2,875 2.37% 56.5% 1,887 65.6% 988 34.4% 83 4.4% 5.8%
DC 224 0.19% 53.5% 207 92.2% 17 7.8% 4 1.8% 3.4%
CALCULATED TRUE VOTE Deviation from Recorded
State Votes Weight RESP. Kerry Pct Bush Pct Votes Pct WPE
Total 121,056 100% 53.32% 63,314 52.30% 57,741 47.70% 4287 6.77% 7.08%
HBUSH 3,965 3.3% 61.7% 1,306 32.7% 2,659 67.3% 54 5.4% 3.58%
BUSH 39,582 32.7% 55.2% 17,415 42.8% 22,167 57.2% 955 3.6% 3.49%
EVEN 37,073 30.6% 50.2% 19,868 53.7% 17,205 46.3% 1,397 6.8% 7.35%
KERRY 29,326 24.2% 55.4% 17,426 59.2% 11,900 40.8% 1,346 7.5% 9.07%
HKERRY 11,110 9.2% 53.0% 7,300 70.7% 3,810 29.3% 535 6.0% 8.06%
