The Final 5

The Final 5 Million Recorded Votes

TruthIsAll

There was a 12% difference in margin between the initial 116.2 million 2-party recorded vote (Bush 51.5-Kerry 48.5%) and the final 4.8m (Kerry 54.3-Bush 45.7%). This resulted in a 0.5m decline in the official Bush margin (3.5 to 3.0m). This red flag indicates that since the election was decided at the 116m mark, election fraud was no longer necessary. Late votes (absentees, etc.) became irrelevant when Bush was declared the winner. The media reported that Bush won by 3.5m votes; they still quote that initial margin today. Edison-Mitofsky matched the Final Exit Poll to the initial 117m recorded votes.

Assuming that Kerry's 53.0% share of the 5.0m late votes is representative of the 122.3m recorded total, his vote total is 64.8m. Adding his 75% share of the 3.4m documented uncounted votes brings his final total to 67.4m (53.5%). This is quite close to the Election Calculator model which determined that he won by 53.2-45.4%. The model accounted for total votes cast in 2000 (recorded plus uncounted) , assuming 5% voter mortality and a 95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004. The 12:22am Composite NEP vote shares were used to calculate the vote.

There was a 0.72 correlation between the late state vote shares and the exit polls. For states which had more than 40k late votes, the correlation statistic was a much stronger 0.93, as one would expect.

This is further evidence that the "pristine" exit polls were close to the true vote:

1) the high correlation between state exit polls and late vote shares

2) the small discrepancies between the exit polls and the late vote shares

3) the consistent pattern of a higher Kerry share of late votes compared to initial recorded votes

How does one explain the discrepancies between the initial and late recorded state vote shares? Kerry’s late vote share exceeded his initial share in 38 states (15 of 19 battleground states). Corresponding vote discrepancies were significant in the East but near zero in the Far West, strongly suggesting election fraud in early-reporting, vote-rich battleground states. A false impression was created that Bush was winning the popular vote while the state and national exit polls indicated that Kerry was winning big. In the Far Western states there was virtually no difference between the 15.6m initial and 3.3m late recorded vote shares; Kerry was a steady 53% winner. But the Far West average exit poll WPE was 6.4%, indicating a 56% Kerry share. Was vote-padding still in effect?

Not a single media pundit has ever noted the following:

1) Final state exit polls and a mathematically impossible National Exit poll were adjusted to match the recorded vote.

2) Unadjusted “pristine” state exit polls were close to the True vote.

3) Final 5 million recorded votes were close to the True vote.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/vote2004/president.htm

Final Recorded Vote

Bush 62,040,610 50.73%

Kerry 59,028,439 48.27%

Other 1,224,499 1.00%

Total 122,293,548 100%

Initial 117.28m votes

Bush 59,834,866 51.02%

Kerry 56,373,514 48.07%

Other 1,073,874 0.91%

Total 117,282,254 100%

Late 5.01m votes

Bush 2,205,744 44.02%

Kerry 2,654,925 52.98%

Other 150,625 3.00%

Total 5,011,294 100%

Other:

Nader 406,940 0.35%

Badnarik 384,174 0.33%

Peroutka 132,054 0.11%

Cobb 107,400 0.09%

Peltier 21,616 0.02%

Brown 10,283 0.01%

Harris 6,962 0.01%

Calero 4,445 0.00%

Kerry Vote Share Summary

Recorded Kerry Votes

Final 48.27% 122.29m

Initial 48.07% 117.28m

Late 52.98% 5.01m

State Exit Polls based on weighted average WPE

Method Kerry Avg WPE Wtd Avg Description

VNS 51.81% 5.95% 7.09% VNS: 4 outliers removed from average

DSS 52.15% 6.73% 7.77% Decision Summary Screen: 4 outliers removed

IMS 51.91% 6.29% 7.37% Input Mgt Screen: no outliers removed

National Exit Poll Timeline (Gender demographic)

3:59pm 50.48% 8349 respondents

7:33pm 50.78% 11027

12:22am 50.78% 13047

Final 47.78% 13660 (matched to initial 117m recorded votes)

Model 53.23% (Election Calculator-see below)

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Kerry Late Average Vote Share

Late Exit Late Diff

100k+ 55.1% 54.8% 0.3%

30-100k 47.0% 49.5% -2.6%

10-30k 50.2% 54.6% -4.4%

0-10k 48.3% 51.4% -3.2%

All 50.0% 52.5% -2.5%

Kerry 2-party Regional Weighted Average Vote Share

* indicates state had less than 2000 late votes

Final Initial Late Change WPE Exit

Wtd 48.8% 48.5% 54.3% 5.8% 5.8% 51.6%

Unwtd 48.4% 48.4% 52.0% 3.7% 6.0% 51.5%

Weighted

East 56.5% 56.2% 62.4% 6.2% 9.7% 61.3%

Midw 48.1% 48.1% 56.1% 8.1% 3.4% 49.8%

South 42.7% 42.6% 46.6% 4.0% 5.8% 45.6%

West 41.7% 41.7% 41.9% 0.2% 4.8% 44.1%

FarW 53.2% 53.3% 53.0% -0.2% 6.4% 56.4%

Final Initial Late Change WPE Exit

East

CT 55.3% 55.3% 56.3% 1.0% 15.7% 63.3%

DC* 90.5% 90.5% 90.5% 0.0% 3.4% 92.2%

DE* 53.8% 53.8% 67.3% 13.4% 15.9% 61.9%

MA 62.7% 62.7% 71.5% 8.8% 5.8% 65.7%

MD 56.6% 56.2% 60.3% 4.1% 8.1% 60.7%

ME* 54.6% 54.5% 87.3% 33.0% 3.8% 56.5%

NH* 50.7% 50.7% 55.8% 5.2% 13.6% 57.6%

NJ 53.4% 53.1% 57.6% 4.5% 9.7% 58.3%

NY 59.3% 58.8% 65.8% 7.0% 11.4% 65.1%

PA 51.3% 51.1% 58.6% 7.5% 8.8% 55.7%

RI 60.6% 60.5% 62.6% 2.1% 4.7% 63.0%

VT* 60.3% 60.3% 48.7% -11.6% 15.0% 68.0%<

Final Initial Late Change WPE Exit

Midwest

IA 49.7% 49.5% 62.1% 12.6% 3.0% 51.2%

IL 55.2% 55.1% 70.3% 15.2% 4.4% 57.4%

IN 39.6% 39.5% 62.0% 22.6% 1.5% 40.3%

KS 37.1% 37.0% 42.7% 5.8% 1.7% 38.0%

OH 48.9% 48.7% 56.2% 7.4% 10.9% 54.4%

MI 51.7% 51.7% 58.4% 6.7% 6.3% 54.9%

MN 51.8% 51.8% 47.9% -3.9% 9.3% 56.5%

MO 46.4% 46.3% 63.8% 17.5% 5.8% 49.3%

ND* 36.1% 36.1% 37.4% 1.3% -5.2% 33.4%

NE 33.2% 33.0% 43.6% 10.6% 8.1% 37.3%

OK* 34.4% 34.4% 34.4% 0.0% -1.9% 33.5%

SD 39.1% 39.1% 32.8% -6.3% -4.2% 37.0%

WI 50.2% 50.2% 36.3% -13.9% 4.7% 52.6%<

Final Initial Late Change WPE Exit

South

AL* 37.1% 37.1% 67.6% 30.6% 11.3% 42.8%

AR 45.1% 45.0% 48.2% 3.2% 0.5% 45.3%

FL 47.5% 47.5% 50.5% 3.0% 7.6% 51.3%

GA 41.6% 41.6% 46.2% 4.6% 2.2% 42.8%

LA 42.7% 42.6% 79.5% 36.9% 3.8% 44.6%

KY* 40.0% 40.0% 30.2% -9.8% -0.1% ; 39.9%

MS 40.1% 40.0% 44.2% 4.3% 11.3% 46.2%

NC 43.8% 43.7% 45.4% 1.6% 11.3% 49.4%

SC 41.4% 41.3% 45.1% 3.8% 10.0% 46.4%

TN* 42.8% 42.8% 56.0% 13.2% 0.5% 43.1%

VA 45.9% 45.8% 48.8% 3.0% 7.9% 49.8%

WV 43.5% 43.6% 40.5% -3.0% -5.8% ; 40.6%

TX 38.5% 38.5% 45.3% 6.8% 4.8% 40.9%

Final Initial Late Change WPE Exit

West

CO 47.6% 47.3% 53.6% 6.3% 6.1% 50.7%

ID* 30.7% 30.7% 15.4% -15.3% 1.0% ; 31.2%

MT* 39.5% 39.5% 37.0% -2.5% -1.8% ; 38.6%

NM 49.6% 49.4% 61.4% 11.9% 7.8% 53.5%

NV 48.7% 48.7% 50.4% 1.8% 10.1% 53.8%

UT 26.7% 27.1% 21.4% -5.7% 6.4% & 29.9%

WY* 29.7% 29.7% 23.8% -5.9% 4.3% & 31.9%

Final Initial Late Change WPE Exit

Far West

AK 36.8% 36.2% 39.0% 2.8% 9.6% 41.7%

AZ 44.7% 44.7% 44.7% -0.1% 4.6% & 47.0%

CA 55.0% 55.2% 54.4% -0.8% 10.9% ; 60.6%

HI* 54.4% 54.4% 82.6% 28.3% 4.7% 56.8%

OR 52.1% 52.0% 54.6% 2.6% 0.0% 52.1%

WA 53.6% 53.5% 57.7% 4.2% 8.4% 57.9%

State Recorded Votes

(in thousands)

Final Initial Late

TOTAL KERRY BUSH OTHER TOTAL KERRY BUSH NADER TOTAL KERRY BUSH Other

122294 59028 62041 1224 116654 56404 59834 414 5640 2624 2207 810

East 26421 14744 11361 316 25262 14112 10980 170 1159 632 381 146

Midwest 32404 15470 16670 264 31960 15320 16552 87 444 150 117 177

South 37662 15943 21436 284 37142 15790 21261 90 521 153 175 194

West 5936 2437 3404 96 5699 2360 3298 41 238 76 106 56

Far West 19870 10435 9171 264 16592 8822 7743 26 3278 1613 1428 238

East

CT 1579 857 694 27 1544 846 685 13 35 11 9 15

DC* 228 203 21 3 226 203 21 1 2 0 0 2

DE* 375 200 172 3 374 200 172 2 2 0 0 1

MA 2912 1804 1071 37 2861 1794 1067 0 51 10 4 37

MD 2387 1334 1025 27 2186 1224 952 11 200 111 73 17

ME* 741 397 330 14 734 395 330 8 7 1 0 5

NH* 678 341 331 6 675 340 331 4 2 0 0 2

NJ 3612 1911 1670 30 3405 1799 1587 19 206 112 83 12

NY 7391 4314 2963 114 6892 3993 2796 104 499 321 167 11

PA 5770 2938 2794 38 5643 2886 2757 0 127 52 37 38

RI 437 260 169 8 413 247 162 4 24 12 7 4

VT* 312 184 121 7 309 184 121 4 4 0 0 3

Final Initial Late

TOTAL KERRY BUSH OTHER TOTAL KERRY BUSH NADER TOTAL KERRY BUSH Other

122294 59028 62041 1224 116654 56404 59834 414 5640 2624 2207 810

Midwest

IA 1507 742 752 13 1486 733 747 6 21 9 5 7

IL 5274 2892 2346 37 5208 2871 2337 0 67 21 9 37

IN 2468 969 1479 20 2435 961 1474 0 33 8 5 20

KS 1188 435 736 16 1147 421 718 9 40 14 19 7

OH 5628 2741 2860 27 5456 2660 2796 0 172 82 64 27

MI 4839 2479 2314 46 4810 2475 2311 24 29 4 3 22

MN 2828 1445 1347 37 2807 1444 1345 19 21 1 2 18

MO 2731 1259 1456 16 2707 1254 1453 0 25 5 3 16

ND* 313 111 197 5 310 111 196 4 2 0 1 1

NE 778 254 513 11 762 249 507 6 17 5 6 5

OK* 1464 504 960 0 1464 504 960 0 0 0 0 0

SD 388 149 233 6 386 149 233 4 2 0 0 2

WI 2997 1490 1478 29 2982 1489 1477 16 15 1 1 13

Final Initial Late

TOTAL KERRY BUSH OTHER TOTAL KERRY BUSH NADER TOTAL KERRY BUSH Other

122294 59028 62041 1224 116654 56404 59834 414 5640 2624 2207 810

South

AL* 1883 694 1176 13 1876 693 1176 7 8 1 0 6

AR 1055 470 573 12 1037 464 567 6 18 6 6 6

FL 7610 3584 3965 62 7563 3575 3956 33 47 9 9 29

GA 3302 1366 1914 21 3235 1345 1890 0 67 21 24 21

LA 1943 820 1102 21 1928 819 1102 7 15 1 0 14

KY* 1796 713 1069 14 1790 712 1069 9 6 0 1 5

MS 1152 458 685 9 1118 445 669 3 35 13 16 6

NC 3501 1526 1961 14 3395 1484 1911 0 106 42 50 14

SC 1618 662 938 18 1580 650 924 5 38 11 14 13

TN* 2437 1036 1384 16 2437 1036 1384 16 0 0 0 0

VA 3198 1455 1717 27 3095 1417 1678 0 103 37 39 27

WV 756 327 424 6 744 322 418 4 12 4 6 2

TX 7411 2833 4527 51 7344 2826 4518 0 67 7 8 51

Final Initial Late

TOTAL KERRY BUSH OTHER TOTAL KERRY BUSH NADER TOTAL KERRY BUSH Other

122294 59028 62041 1224 116654 56404 59834 414 5640 2624 2207 810

West

CO 2130 1002 1101 27 2018 950 1056 12 112 52 45 15

ID* 598 181 409 8 589 181 408 0 9 0 1 8

MT* 450 174 266 11 445 173 265 6 5 0 1 5

NM 756 371 377 8 742 365 373 4 14 6 4 4

NV 830 397 419 14 813 393 415 5 16 4 4 9

UT 928 241 664 23 851 227 613 11 77 14 51 12

WY* 243 71 168 5 240 71 167 3 3 0 1 2

Far West

AK 313 111 191 11 242 86 152 4 71 25 39 7

AZ 2013 894 1104 15 1644 735 908 0 369 158 196 15

CA 12420 6745 5510 165 9831 5427 4403 0 2589 1318 1106 165

HI* 429 232 194 3 425 231 194 0 4 0 0 3

OR 1837 943 867 27 1714 891 823 0 123 52 44 27

WA 2859 1510 1305 44 2736 1452 1262 22 123 58 43 22

Calculated True Vote

Late Share Recorded +Unctd = True Vote

Kerry 2.65 53.0% 64.79 2.58 67.37 53.6%

Bush 2.21 44.0% 53.80 0.79 54.59 43.4%

Other 0.15 3.0% 3.71 0.07 3.78 3.0%

Total 5.01 100% 122.30 3.45 125.74 100%

Election Calculator

Assumptions:

Uncounted Votes

Cast Census Uncounted

2004 2.74% 125.74 3.45

2000 4.86% 110.80 5.38

Uncounted Vote share

2004 2000

Kerry 75% Gore 75%

Bush 23% Bush 20%

Other 2% Nader 5%

2000 Annual Voter Mortality

Total 1.22%

Gore share 50.4%

2000 Voter Turnout in 2004

Gore 95%

Bush 95%

Other 95%

2000 Recorded

Voted Rec Unctd Cast Deaths Alive

Gore 51.00 4.04 55.04 2.71 52.33

Bush 50.46 1.08 51.53 2.47 49.07

Other 3.96 0.27 4.23 0.21 4.02

Total 105.42 5.38 110.80 5.38 105.42

2004 Calculated

Turnout Voted Weight Kerry Bush Other

DNV na 25.59 20.4% 57% 41% 2%

Gore 95% 49.71 39.5% 91% 8% 1%

Bush 95% 46.61 37.1% 10% 90% 0%

Other 95% 3.82 3.0% 64% 17% 19%

100.15 125.74 100% 53.23% 45.39% 1.38%

66.93 57.07 1.74