Florida: Further confirmation of a Kerry landslide
TruthIsAll
In every election, millions of votes are never counted. They represent a significant component of the exit poll discrepancies. According to the 2000 Census, 110.8m votes were cast but only 105.4m recorded, leaving 5.4m uncounted. Most were from heavily democratic minority districts. Assuming that 75% were Gore votes, his true margin was close to 3 million, not the 540,000 recorded. But that doesn’t include likely vote-switching to Bush on DREs and optical scanners. And don’t forget the millions of disenfranchised Democrats who never even got to the voting booth. Gore’s 540,000 “official” vote margin is a long-running media myth. The 2000 election wasn’t even close, although the media would like us to believe it was. Only the 5-4 Supreme Court decision was close.
Consider the Florida 2000 fiasco. Bush “won” by 537 “official” votes before the Supreme Court aborted the recount - and 175,010 spoiled (under-punched and over-punched) ballots were never counted. Since approximately 75% were intended for Gore, he probably won Florida by more than 80,000 votes. And don’t forget the thousands of Butterfly ballots which fooled Gore voters into voting for Buchanan.
Approximately 54% of the spoiled ballots were in black districts where Gore won 91% of the vote. Assuming the other 46% were evenly split between Gore and Bush, then 126,000 (72%) of the spoiled ballots were Gore votes. And the infamous “Butterfly” ballot caused several thousand Gore voters to mistakenly vote for Buchanan in Palm Beach County. Buchanan's vote share was 0.80% in Palm Beach and just 0.25% elsewhere.
Dan Rather's expose on voting machines in Florida 2000 showed that poor-quality paper used in punch card machines was a major cause of ballot spoilage in highly Democratic precincts. Faulty paper had never before been considered a factor in mechanical voting failure. The spoiled punched cards in Florida 2000 were just the tip of the national iceberg.
Kerry had a 100,000 built-in vote advantage going into the election. He could count on a solid majority (70-80%) of 90,000 returning Nader voters. No more hanging chads from spoiled punch cards; Touch screens and Optical scanners would be used for input to the central tabulators. Furthermore, the Democrats had a remarkable voter registration and GOTV effort. In the strongest Democratic areas, the pace of new registration was 60 percent higher than in 2000, while it was just 12 percent higher in the heaviest Republican areas. Of course, they had to overcome Bush’s popularity; he had a whopping 48.5% approval rating on Election Day.
The Florida pre-election polls were trending to Kerry. After allocating the undecided vote, Kerry led the final 10-poll average by 51.1-48.8%. Kerry was on track to a 200,000 vote win.
But Bush “won” the official vote by 52.1-47.1%, a 381,000 margin. Kerry won TS counties by 51.3-47.8%, but Bush won OS counties by a whopping 57.0-42.3%. Kerry’s low vote shares in the three most heavily populated Democratic TS counties (Palm Beach, Broward, Dade) are highly suspect. The TS county vote share matched the exit poll to within 1%, but the OS county share deviated by 9% in favor of Bush. The probability was virtually zero that Kerry's TS vote share would exceed his state-wide share by 4.2% and his OS county share by 9%.
Consider Florida’s implausible vote count by machine type and 2004 Voter Registration. The Democrats had a 41.6- 36.1% registration advantage in Touch Screen (TS) counties and a 41.1-39.5% edge in Optical Scan (OS) counties. Bush’s vote share was 131% of his registration share in TS (DRE) counties and 145% in Optiscan counties. For Kerry, the corresponding percentages were 125% and 102%. Was the vote suppressed in TS (Democratic) counties and padded in Optiscan (Republican) counties? Since Bush was first selected in 2000, the Florida Republican vote share to registration share ratio has increased sharply compared to the Democrats.
Comparing the last three elections, we see a dramatic rise in the ratio of Bush vote share to registration share:
In 1996, Dole’s vote share was 106% of the registered Republican share.
Clinton’s share was equal (100%) to the registered Democratic share.
In 2000, Bush’s vote share was 128% of the registered Republican share.
Gore’s share was 109% of the registered Democratic share.
In 2004, Bush’s vote share was 138% of the registered Republican share.
Kerry’s share was 114% of the registered Democratic share.
In 2004, the Kerry vote/registration ratio was 84%; for Bush, it was 102%. Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 369,000, yet Bush won by 381,000 votes. Bush received 61,000 more votes than registered Republicans; Kerry had 689,000 fewer votes than registered Democrats. Was the vote suppressed in TS (Democratic) counties and padded in Optiscan (Republican) counties?
To match the recorded vote, Bush needed 21.3% of the statewide Democratic vote (15% in TS counties and 28% in OS counties).
If Kerry won 7% (his National Exit Poll share) of Florida Republicans, he needed 79% of Democrats in OpScan counties and 86% in TS (DRE) counties to win the state.
So how did Bush do it?
Could it have been the Independent vote?
No, according to the Composite Florida exit poll, Independents voted 60-38% for Kerry.
Could it have been late undecided voters who made up their minds in the month prior to the election?
No, undecideds voted 61-38% for Kerry.
Could it have been new voters?
No, Kerry won first-timers by 58-41%. The Democratic GOTV effort overwhelmed the Republicans.
Could it have been that voters favored an AWOL “War President” over a Medal of Honor winner?
No, Bush average approval rating was 48% on Election Day (11 national polls).
Could it have been the 90,000 returning Nader 2000 voters?
No, the Composite National Exit Poll (13047 respondents) indicated that Kerry led Bush by 64-17%.
The Final NEP (13660 respondents) had the spread as 71-21%, a 45,000 vote margin.
Could it have been the voting machines?
Do you believe in magic?
HAVA seat.
Let’s crunch some numbers.
Science works by assuming that the explanation that best fits the data is correct. But new data must always be tested to either strengthen the case or cause it to be rejected in favor of a better explanation.
The unadjusted, "pristine" Florida exit poll had Kerry leading by 51.0-48.2%. The Florida General Exit Poll indicated that the election was a virtual tie (see the Gender demographic). The Final State and National Exit poll demographic weights and/or vote shares are forced to match the recorded vote count. It’s standard operating procedure.
But a closer analysis shows significant Bush bias in exit poll weights and vote shares. County registration data, the pre-election polling trend, Bush’s approval and exit poll demographics indicate that Kerry won Florida by 200-300,000 votes.
The Florida Exit Poll raised these red flags:
1) Party-ID weights: Dem 38/Rep 39% * The actual Florida 2004 Voter Registration shares were Dem 41.6 / Rep 36.1% 2) Bush led voters who decided one month before the election by 54-46%. * Late September pre-election polls indicated that the race was tied. * Kerry led voters who decided in the final month by 61-38%. 3) Bush approval: 53% (35% strong) * Actual approval was 48.5% (average of 11 national polls). 4) Urban Vote Share: The Florida exit poll indicated Bush led by 53-46%.
* The 7:33pm National Exit Poll update indicated that Kerry led by 57-41%.
The pre-election 10-poll moving average projected Kerry by 51.1-48.8%.The unadjusted exit poll (WPE method) had Kerry winning by 51.0-48.2%.
The following post-election models confirmed the pre-election and unadjusted exit polls:
1) Election Calculator:
Final NEP vote shares with weights calculated from the 2000 vote, uncounted votes, voter mortality and 95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004.
Kerry won by 51.4-48.0%, a 260,000 vote margin.
2) DRE (TS) Optical Scan (OS) county registration weight with plausible vote shares.
Kerry won by 52.0-46.8%, a 400,000 vote margin.
3) Uncounted and switched vote adjustments to the final 2004 recorded vote.
Kerry won by 51.3-48.2%, a 240,000 vote margin.
Florida Recorded Vote (in thousands)
2000 Vote Pct 2004 Vote PctGore 2912 48.8% Kerry 3584 47.1%Bush 2913 48.8% Bush 3965 52.1%Other 139 2.4% Other 62 0.8% Recorded Vote by County Type
County Vote Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DRE 3.90 51.3% 47.8% 0.9% 2.00 1.86 .04OS 3.71 42.3% 57.0% 0.7% 1.57 2.11 .03 Total 7.61 47.1% 52.1% 0.8% 3.57 3.98 .06 Florida General Exit Poll Bush wins by 49.6-49.2% (30,000 votes) Reg Votes Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush OtherDem 38% 2.89 86% 13% 1% 2.49 0.38 0.03Rep 39% 2.97 7% 92% 1% 0.21 2.73 0.03Ind 23% 1.75 60% 38% 2% 1.05 0.67 0.04
Total 7.61 7.61 49.2% 49.6% 1.2% 3.74 3.77 0.09
Evaluation of Edison/Mitofsky Election System 2004
(see pg.32 for state WPE measures)
Florida Kerry Bush
IM WPE 51.0% 48.2%
Best GEO 49.2 50.3
Composite 49.3 50.1
Best SPM 48.6 51.0
Recorded 47.1 52.1
IM WPE
The statewide WPE (Within Precinct Error) is the average difference in margin between the raw, unadjusted exit poll and recorded vote. Florida precincts had an average 7.8% WPE. The unadjusted exit poll result was not provided by E-M in their Evaluation Report. But given the WPE, the raw, unadjusted exit poll shares can be calculated from the recorded vote shares:
Kerry = Final Recorded + .5* WPE = 47.1 + 3.9 = 51.0%.
Bush = Final Recorded – .5* WPE = 52.1 - 3.9 = 48.2%
Best GEO Survey Estimate
The Best GEO is the estimate with the lowest Standard Error on the Difference (SEDF) using the cumulative precinct tallies for each candidate.
Prior Estimate
Prior Estimates are based upon pre-election surveys conducted in each state. It is used in combination with the Best Survey Estimate on Election Day to create the Composite Estimate.
Composite Estimate
The Composite is the weighted average of the Prior Estimate and Best Survey Estimate. It is most often the estimate used in the survey weighting process to create the exit poll analysis data on Election Day before the actual vote is reported View the Florida General Exit Poll demographic calculations below.
Best SPM
The Best SPM is the adjusted estimate computed using actual vote returns for each sampled precinct.
Implausible Bush Vote Shares
The following analysis shows that the Bush Florida vote was implausible.
He needed 21.3% of the statewide Democratic vote, 15% in DRE (TS) counties and a whopping 28% in OS counties.
County Mix Votes Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush OtherDRE Dem 41.57% 1.62 84% 15% 1% 1.36 0.24 0.02Rep 36.13% 1.41 6% 93% 1% 0.08 1.31 0.01Ind 22.30% 0.87 60% 38% 2% 0.52 0.33 0.02
Vote 3.903 3.90 50.5% 48.3% 1.2% 1.97 1.89 0.05 OS Dem 41.15% 1.53 71% 28% 1% 1.08 0.43 0.02Rep 39.52% 1.47 5% 94% 1% 0.07 1.38 0.01Ind 19.33% 0.72 60% 38% 2% 0.43 0.27 0.01
Vote 3.707 3.71 42.8% 56.0% 1.2% 1.59 2.08 0.04 TotalDem 41.37% 3.15 77.7% 21.3% 1.0% 2.45 0.67 0.03Rep 37.79% 2.88 5.5% 93.5% 1.0% 0.16 2.69 0.03Ind 20.85% 1.59 60.0% 38.0% 2.0% 0.95 0.60 0.03
Vote 7.610 7.61 46.7% 52.1% 1.2% 3.56 3.96 0.09___________________________________________________________________________________________ Model I Election Calculator Kerry wins by 51.4-48.0% (260,000 vote margin) Assumptions:
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Uncounted Votes |
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Pct |
Cast |
Unctd |
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2004 |
3.0% |
7.813 |
0.234 |
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2000 |
2.85% |
6.137 |
0.175 |
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2004 |
Share |
2000 |
Share |
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Kerry |
75% |
Gore |
75% |
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Bush |
23% |
Bush |
22% |
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Other |
2% |
Nader |
3% |
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2000 Voter Mortality |
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Total Voters |
1.22% |
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Gore share |
52% |
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2000 Voter Turnout in 2004 |
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Gore |
95% |
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Bush |
95% |
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Nader |
95% |
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2000 Recorded |
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2004 Calculated |
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Voted |
Recorded |
Uncounted |
Cast |
Deaths |
Alive |
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Turnout |
Voted |
Weight |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
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DNV |
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DNV |
2.27 |
29.0% |
54% |
45% |
1% |
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Gore |
2.91 |
0.13 |
3.04 |
0.16 |
2.89 |
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95% |
2.74 |
35.1% |
90% |
10% |
0% |
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Bush |
2.91 |
0.04 |
2.95 |
0.14 |
2.81 |
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95% |
2.67 |
34.2% |
9% |
91% |
0% |
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Nader |
0.14 |
0.01 |
0.14 |
0.01 |
0.14 |
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95% |
0.13 |
1.6% |
64% |
19% |
17% |
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Total |
5.96 |
0.17 |
6.14 |
0.30 |
5.84 |
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5.55 |
7.81 |
100% |
51.41% |
48.02% |
0.57% |
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7.81 |
4.02 |
3.75 |
0.04 |
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Kerry Vote Share |
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Kerry Vote Share |
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Gore share of |
Bush 2000 Turnout: |
95.0% |
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Kerry share of |
Bush 2000 voters: |
9.0% |
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Uncounted |
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Gore Voter Turnout |
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Gore voters |
New voters (DNV in 2000) |
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51.4% |
91% |
93% |
95% |
97% |
99% |
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51.4% |
50% |
52% |
54% |
56% |
58% |
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85% |
51.0% |
51.3% |
51.6% |
51.8% |
52.1% |
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94% |
51.6% |
52.2% |
52.8% |
53.4% |
54.0% |
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80% |
51.0% |
51.2% |
51.5% |
51.8% |
52.0% |
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92% |
50.9% |
51.5% |
52.1% |
52.7% |
53.3% |
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75% |
50.9% |
51.1% |
51.4% |
51.7% |
51.9% |
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90% |
50.2% |
50.8% |
51.4% |
52.0% |
52.6% |
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70% |
50.8% |
51.1% |
51.3% |
51.6% |
51.9% |
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88% |
49.5% |
50.1% |
50.7% |
51.3% |
51.9% |
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65% |
50.7% |
51.0% |
51.2% |
51.5% |
51.8% |
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86% |
48.8% |
49.4% |
50.0% |
50.6% |
51.2% |
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Kerry Margin |
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Kerry Margin |
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0.26 |
91% |
93% |
95% |
97% |
99% |
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0.26 |
50% |
52% |
54% |
56% |
58% |
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85% |
0.21 |
0.25 |
0.29 |
0.33 |
0.38 |
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94% |
0.30 |
0.39 |
0.48 |
0.57 |
0.67 |
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80% |
0.19 |
0.24 |
0.28 |
0.32 |
0.36 |
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92% |
0.19 |
0.28 |
0.37 |
0.46 |
0.56 |
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75% |
0.18 |
0.22 |
0.26 |
0.31 |
0.35 |
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90% |
0.08 |
0.17 |
0.26 |
0.35 |
0.45 |
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70% |
0.17 |
0.21 |
0.25 |
0.29 |
0.33 |
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88% |
(0.03) |
0.06 |
0.15 |
0.25 |
0.34 |
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65% |
0.15 |
0.20 |
0.24 |
0.28 |
0.32 |
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86% |
(0.14) |
(0.05) |
0.04 |
0.14 |
0.23 |
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____________________________________________________________________________________________
Model II – Adjusted Florida General Exit Poll (Composite)
County Registration Weights and Vote shares
Unadjusted Exit Poll
The WPE (Within Precinct Error) is the average difference in margin between the raw, unadjusted exit poll and recorded vote.
Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll by 51.0-48.2% (210,000 votes).
Composite Estimate
The Composite is the adjusted weighted average of the Prior Estimate and Best Survey Estimate.
Florida General (Composite) Exit Poll Bush won the poll by 49.6-49.2% (30,000 votes) Reg Votes Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush OtherDem 38% 2.89 86% 13% 1% 2.49 0.38 0.03Rep 39% 2.97 7% 92% 1% 0.21 2.73 0.03Ind 23% 1.75 60% 38% 2% 1.05 0.67 0.04
Total 7.61 7.61 49.2% 49.6% 1.2% 3.74 3.77 0.09 Adjust Exit Poll weights to actual voter registration sharesKerry wins by 50.7-48.1% (200,000 votes) Mix Votes Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush OtherDem 41.37% 3.15 86% 13% 1% 2.71 0.41 0.03Rep 37.79% 2.88 7% 92% 1% 0.20 2.65 0.03Ind 20.85% 1.59 60% 38% 2% 0.95 0.60 0.03
Vote 7.610 7.61 50.73% 48.06% 1.21% 3.86 3.66 0.09 Adjust to plausible DRE and Opscan county vote sharesKerry wins by 52.0-46.8% (400,000 votes) DRE Mix Votes Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush OtherDem 41.57% 1.62 90% 9% 1% 1.46 0.15 0.02Rep 36.13% 1.41 7% 92% 1% 0.10 1.30 0.01Ind 22.30% 0.87 62% 36% 2% 0.54 0.31 0.02
Vote 3.903 3.90 53.8% 45.0% 1.2% 2.10 1.76 0.05 OS Dem 41.15% 1.53 87% 12% 1% 1.33 0.18 0.02Rep 39.52% 1.47 7% 92% 1% 0.10 1.35 0.01Ind 19.33% 0.72 60% 38% 2% 0.43 0.27 0.01
Vote 3.707 3.71 50.2% 48.6% 1.2% 1.86 1.80 0.04 Total Dem 41.37% 3.15 88.5% 10.5% 1.0% 2.79 0.33 0.03Rep 37.79% 2.88 7.0% 92.0% 1.0% 0.20 2.65 0.03Ind 20.85% 1.59 61.1% 36.9% 2.0% 0.97 0.59 0.03
Vote 7.610 7.61 52.0% 46.8% 1.2% 3.96 3.56 0.09
Sensitivity Analysis I
Calculate Kerry’s Florida vote share and margin over a range of TS and OS county registration/vote share scenarios.
If Kerry won 7% (his National Exit Poll share) of Florida Republicans, then to win the state he needs just 79% of Democrats in OpScan counties and 86% in TS (DRE) counties.
Kerry share of DRE county Democrats
share 86.0% 88.0% 90.0% 92.0% 94.0% of OS Kerry Vote share 91% 52.0% 52.4% 52.8% 53.2% 53.7% 89% 51.6% 52.0% 52.4% 52.8% 53.3% 87% 51.2% 51.6% 52.0% 52.4% 52.9% 85% 50.8% 51.2% 51.6% 52.0% 52.5% 83% 50.4% 50.8% 51.2% 51.6% 52.1% 81% 50.0% 50.4% 50.8% 51.2% 51.7% 79% 49.6% 50.0% 50.4% 50.8% 51.3% Kerry Vote margin 91% 0.39 0.46 0.52 0.59 0.65 89% 0.33 0.39 0.46 0.52 0.59 87% 0.27 0.33 0.40 0.46 0.53 85% 0.21 0.27 0.34 0.40 0.47 83% 0.15 0.21 0.28 0.34 0.41 81% 0.09 0.15 0.22 0.28 0.35 79% 0.02 0.09 0.15 0.22 0.28 Sensitivity Analysis II Calculate Kerry’s Florida vote share for various combination shares of Democrats and Independents.
Kerry wins the state if he captures 84% of Democrats and 58% of independents. Base Case Scenario Mix Votes Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush OtherDem 41.37% 3.15 86% 13% 1% 2.71 0.41 0.03Rep 37.79% 2.88 7% 92% 1% 0.20 2.65 0.03Ind 20.85% 1.59 60% 38% 2% 0.95 0.60 0.03
Vote 7.610 7.61 50.7% 48.1% 1.2% 3.86 3.66 0.09 Kerry % Democrats Kerry 84.0% 85.0% 86.0% 87.0% 88.0%% Ind
Kerry Vote share 64% 50.7% 51.1% 51.6% 52.0% 52.4%62% 50.3% 50.7% 51.1% 51.6% 52.0%60% 49.9% 50.3% 50.7% 51.1% 51.6%58% 49.5% 49.9% 50.3% 50.7% 51.1%56% 49.1% 49.5% 49.9% 50.3% 50.7%54% 48.7% 49.1% 49.5% 49.9% 50.3% Kerry Vote margin 64% 0.20 0.27 0.33 0.39 0.46 62% 0.14 0.20 0.27 0.33 0.39 60% 0.08 0.14 0.20 0.27 0.33 58% 0.01 0.08 0.14 0.20 0.27 56% (0.05) 0.01 0.08 0.14 0.20 54% (0.11) (0.05) 0.01 0.08 0.14 ____________________________________________________________________________________________ Model III Uncounted and Switched vote adjustments Kerry wins by 51.3-48.2%(241,000 vote margin) Assumptions:3.0% of total votes cast uncounted 176k uncounted to Kerry (75%)56k uncounted to Bush (24%)251k Kerry votes switched to Bush (7%) Total Kerry Bush Other Actual 7582 3584 3965 33 Unctd 234 176 56 2 Total 7816 3760 4021 35 Switch 7.0% 251 -251 0 True 7816 4011 3770 35 Share 100% 51.3% 48.2% 0.5% ____________________________________________________________________________________________
Florida Pre-election Polls
The final moving average projection: Kerry 51.1-48.8% Projection Moving Average Date Pollster Kerry Bush Nader Kerry Bush Nader Kerry Bush23-May Zogby 49 48 1 50.4 48.6 1.0 31-May Rasmussen 39 51 1 45.3 53.7 1.0 06-Jun Zogby 50 48 1 50.7 48.3 1.0 14-Jun Survey USA 43 50 1 47.2 51.8 1.0
17-Jun Rasmussen 48 44 1 52.9 46.1 1.0 20-Jun Zogby 46 50 1 48.1 50.9 1.0 22-Jun Rasmussen 48 42 1 54.3 44.7 1.0 23-Jun ARG 47 46 1 51.2 47.8 1.0 27-Jun Quinnipiac 43 43 5 49.3 45.7 5.0 30-Jun Rasmussen 48 43 0 54.3 45.7 0.0 50.4 48.3 11-Jul Survey USA 47 44 0 53.3 46.7 0.0 50.7 48.1
15-Jul ARG 47 44 3 51.2 45.8 3.0 51.3 47.421-Jul LA Times 44 45 2 50.3 47.7 2.0 51.2 47.322-Jul Gallup 46 50 1 48.1 50.9 1.0 51.3 47.2
23-Jul Zogby 48 49 1 49.4 49.6 1.0 51.0 47.6 30-Jul Zogby 50 47 2 50.7 47.3 2.0 51.2 47.205-Aug ARG 50 43 2 53.5 44.5 2.0 51.1 47.210-Aug Quinnipiac 47 41 4 52.6 43.4 4.0 51.3 46.721-Aug Zogby 50 49 0 50.7 49.3 0.0 51.4 47.122-Aug Gallup 46 48 2 48.8 49.2 2.0 51.2 47.3
24-Aug Rasmussen 47 49 2 48.4 49.6 2.0 50.9 47.525-Aug Research2k 46 46 2 50.2 47.8 2.0 50.6 47.711-Sep Rasmussen 47 48 1 49.8 49.2 1.0 50.3 47.914-Sep Survey USA 45 51 0 47.8 52.2 0.0 50.0 48.4
16-Sep Rasmussen 47 48 0 50.5 49.5 0.0 50.0 48.5 17-Sep Zogby 48 48 1 50.1 48.9 1.0 50.2 48.420-Sep ARG 46 45 2 50.9 47.1 2.0 50.3 48.222-Sep Gallup 45 47 2 49.2 48.8 2.0 50.2 48.3
26-Sep Rasmussen 49 48 0 51.1 48.9 0.0 50.0 48.727-Sep Gallup 44 49 2 47.5 50.5 2.0 49.6 49.3
29-Sep Rasmussen 47 50 0 49.1 50.9 0.0 49.5 49.403-Oct Survey USA 46 51 0 48.1 51.9 0.0 49.4 49.6
04-Oct Rasmussen 46 52 0 47.4 52.6 0.0 49.3 49.905-Oct Mason-Dixon 44 48 0 49.6 50.4 0.0 49.3 50.105-Oct ARG 47 45 2 51.2 46.8 2.0 49.4 49.9 05-Oct Zogby 50 49 1 50.0 49.0 1.0 49.6 49.605-Oct Rasmussen 45 52 0 47.1 52.9 0.0 49.3 49.910-Oct Rasmussen 45 49 0 49.2 50.8 0.0 49.2 50.110-Oct Wash Post 47 47 1 50.5 48.5 1.0 49.2 50.214-Oct Rasmussen 46 48 0 50.2 49.8 0.0 49.3 50.3 16-Oct Mason-Dixon 45 48 0 49.9 50.1 0.0 49.2 50.417-Oct Survey USA 50 49 0 50.7 49.3 0.0 49.4 50.3
18-Oct Zogby 49 50 0 49.7 50.3 0.0 49.5 50.218-Oct Rasmussen 47 47 0 51.2 48.8 0.0 49.7 49.921-Oct Research 2000 48 47 2 50.1 47.9 2.0 50.0 49.6 23-Oct Rasmussen 48 48 0 50.8 49.2 0.0 50.1 49.524-Oct Survey USA 50 48 0 51.4 48.6 0.0 50.1 49.6
25-Oct ARG 49 46 0 52.5 47.5 0.0 50.3 49.526-Oct Quinnipiac 44 44 1 51.7 47.3 1.0 50.7 49.026-Oct Rasmussen 48 48 0 50.8 49.2 0.0 50.8 48.9 27-Oct Zogby 46 48 0 50.2 49.8 0.0 50.8 49.027-Oct NY Times 48 47 2 50.1 47.9 2.0 50.8 48.828-Oct Rasmussen 46 49 0 49.5 50.5 0.0 50.7 48.929-Oct Mason-Dixon 45 49 0 49.2 50.8 0.0 50.6 49.029-Oct Zogby 47 45 0 52.6 47.4 0.0 50.8 48.7 29-Oct Rasmussen 47 48 0 50.5 49.5 0.0 50.8 48.830-Oct Gallup 49 45 0 53.2 46.8 0.0 51.0 48.7
30-Oct Zogby 49 47 0 51.8 48.2 0.0 51.1 48.630-Oct Rasmussen 47 49 0 49.8 50.2 0.0 51.0 48.831-Oct Opinion Dyn 49 44 1 53.2 45.8 1.0 51.1 48.6 31-Oct Survey USA 48 49 0 50.1 49.9 0.0 50.9 48.8
31-Oct Zogby 48 47 0 51.5 48.5 0.0 51.0 48.831-Oct Rasmussen 47 50 0 49.1 50.9 0.0 50.9 48.901-Nov ARG 50 48 0 51.4 48.6 0.0 51.0 48.901-Nov Zogby 48 48 0 50.8 49.2 0.0 51.1 48.8
____________________________________________________________________________________________ Florida 2004 Exit Poll (Composite)
Party-ID (2743 respondents) Mix Votes Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush OtherDem 38% 2.89 86% 13% 1% 2.49 0.38 0.03Rep 39% 2.97 7% 92% 1% 0.21 2.73 0.03Ind 23% 1.75 60% 38% 2% 1.05 0.67 0.04
Total 7.61 7.61 49.2% 49.6% 1.2% 3.74 3.77 0.09 Adjusted to party registration weights Dem 41.37% 3.15 86% 13% 1% 2.71 0.41 0.03Rep 37.79% 2.88 7% 92% 1% 0.20 2.65 0.03Ind 20.85% 1.59 60% 38% 2% 0.95 0.60 0.03
Vote 7.610 7.61 50.7% 48.1% 1.2% 3.86 3.66 0.09 _____________________________________________________________________ Bush Approval (2409) Approval Pct Kerry Bush Other Strong 35 4 96 0 Approve 18 17 82 1Disapprove 12 84 13 3Strong 35 98 1 1 Total 100 48.8 50.3 0.9 3720 3828 69 Adjusted to 48.5% average approval Strong 33.0 4 96 0 Approve 15.5 17 82 1Disapprove 14.5 84 13 3Strong 37.0 98 1 1 Total 100 52.4 46.7 0.9 7610 3988 3554 69 _____________________________________________________________________ When Decided (2162) Decided Pct Kerry Bush Other3days 8 53 45 2Week 3 70 27 3Month 12 61 38 1Before 77 46 54 0 Total 100 49.1 50.6 0.4 7610 3735 3847 28 Adjusted 30+days to 50/50 3days 8 53 45 2Week 3 70 27 3Month 12 61 38 1Before 77 50 50 0 Total 100 52.2 47.5 0.4 7610 3969 3612 28 _____________________________________________________________________ Mix KERRY BUSH Other Bush Change in share from 2000GENDER Male 46 47 52 1 -2 Males shifted to Kerry from Bush? Female 54 52 48 0 +3 Females shifted to Bush from Gore?TOTAL 100 49.7 49.8 0.5 GENDER/RACE WMale 33 42 57 1 WFemale 38 46 53 1 NWMale 13 59 40 1 NWFemale 16 64 36 0 TOTAL 100 49.3 49.9 0.8 RACE White 70 44 55 1 -2 Whites move away from Bush?Black 12 87 12 1 +5 Blacks shifted to Bush by 5%?Hisp/Lat 15 46 54 0 +5 Hispanics shifted to Bush by 5%?Asian 1 - - - -Other 2 34 66 - -TOTAL 100 48.8 49.4 0.8 AGE 18-29 17 60 39 1 -1 30-44 27 48 51 1 +145-59 28 44 55 1 +6 Baby boomers for Bush?60+ 28 49 50 1 -1TOTAL 100 49.2 49.8 1.0 18-64 81 49 50 1 265+ 19 51 49 0 -3 TOTAL 100 49.4 49.8 0.8 INCOME <15k 9 61 38 1 15-30 15 61 37 2 30-50 22 53 46 1 50-75 21 47 52 1 75-100 14 40 60 0 100-150 10 46 54 0 150-200 4 41 58 1 200+ 5 43 56 1 TOTAL 100 50.2 48.9 0.9 <50k 46 57 42 1 50k+ 54 44 55 1 TOTAL 100 50.0 49.0 1.0 50-100 81 52 48 0 100+ 19 44 56 0 TOTAL 100 50.5 49.5 0. EDUCATION NoHS 3 55 43 2 -4HighSch 20 53 47 0 5 Big Bush gain in HS Grads while losing the other 80%?College 34 50 49 1 0ColGrad 27 46 54 0 -3PostGrad 16 48 51 1 -1TOTAL 100 49.3 50.1 0.6 COLLEGE No 57 52 48 0 Yes 43 46 53 1 TOTAL 100 49.4 50.2 0.4 IDEOLOGY Liberal 20 82 16 2 -1Moderate 47 59 41 0 -5 Big Moderate shift to KerryConserv 33 14 85 1 8 Conservatives overwhelmed the Libs and Mods?TOTAL 100 48.8 50.5 0.7 FIRST-TIME VOTER Yes 13 58 41 1 No 87 48 51 1 TOTAL 100 49.3 49.7 1.0 RELIGION Protestant 51 42 57 1 2Catholic 27 45 55 0 3Jewish 6 81 19 0 0Other 6 71 28 1 -12None 10 68 30 2 4 Atheists for Bush?TOTAL 100 49.5 49.7 0.8 FINANCIAL SITUATION Better 34 16 84 0 48Worse 28 87 12 1 -50Same 38 51 48 1 -16TOTAL 100 49.2 50.2 0.6 DID CANDIDATE CALL YOU? Kerry 16 81 18 1 Bush 15 13 86 1 Both 20 57 43 1 None 49 48 51 1 TOTAL 100 49.8 49.4 1.0 POPULATION- 5 CATEGORIES Urban 7 35 65 0 50-500k 19 50 49 1 Suburb 61 53 47 0 10-50k 9 45 54 1 Rural 4 34 66 0 TOTAL 100 49.7 50.0 0.3 POPULATION- 3 CATEGORIES Urban 26 46 53 1 4 Bush Urban Legend?Suburbs 61 52 48 0 1Rural 13 42 57 1 1TOTAL 100 49.1 50.5 0.4 ____________________________________________________________________________________________ 2000 Recorded Vote by CountyCounty Precincts Total Gore Bush Buchanan Nader Other Gore Bush Buchanan Nader Totals 5884 5963 2912 2913 17 97 24 48.83% 48.85% 0.29% 1.63% Alachua 53 86 47 34 0 3 1 55.2% 39.8% 0.3% 3.8%Baker 8 8 2 6 0 0 0 29.3% 68.8% 0.9% 0.6%Bay 47 59 19 39 0 1 0 32.1% 65.7% 0.4% 1.4%Bradford 21 9 3 5 0 0 0 35.5% 62.4% 0.7% 1.0%
Brevard 177 218 97 115 1 4 1 44.6% 52.7% 0.3% 2.0% Broward 618 573 387 177 1 7 2 67.4% 30.9% 0.1% 1.2%Calhoun 13 5 2 3 0 0 0 41.7% 55.5% 1.7% 0.8%Charlotte 63 67 30 35 0 1 0 44.3% 53.0% 0.3% 2.2%
Citrus 35 57 26 30 0 1 0 44.6% 52.0% 0.5% 2.4%Clay 51 57 15 42 0 1 0 25.5% 72.8% 0.3% 1.0% Collier 96 92 30 60 0 1 0 32.5% 65.6% 0.1% 1.5%Columbia 31 19 7 11 0 0 0 38.1% 59.2% 0.5% 1.4%
Miami-Dade 614 625 329 290 1 5 1 52.6% 46.3% 0.1% 0.9%DeSoto 15 8 3 4 0 0 0 42.5% 54.5% 0.5% 2.0%Dixie 11 5 2 3 0 0 0 39.1% 57.8% 0.6% 1.6%
Duval 268 265 108 152 1 3 1 40.8% 57.5% 0.2% 1.0%Escambia 108 117 41 73 1 2 0 35.1% 62.6% 0.4% 1.5%
Flagler 27 27 14 13 0 0 0 51.3% 46.5% 0.3% 1.6%Franklin 8 5 2 2 0 0 0 44.1% 52.8% 0.7% 1.8%
Gadsden 16 15 10 5 0 0 0 66.1% 32.4% 0.3% 0.9%
Gilchrist 10 5 2 3 0 0 0 35.4% 61.2% 0.5% 1.8%Glades 13 3 1 2 0 0 0 42.9% 54.7% 0.3% 1.7%Gulf 14 6 2 4 0 0 0 39.0% 57.8% 1.2% 1.4%Hamilton 8 4 2 2 0 0 0 43.4% 54.1% 0.6% 0.9%
Hardee 12 6 2 4 0 0 0 37.5% 60.4% 0.5% 1.2% Hendry 22 8 3 5 0 0 0 39.8% 58.3% 0.3% 1.3%Hernando 51 65 33 31 0 2 0 50.1% 47.0% 0.4% 2.3%Highlands 28 35 14 20 0 1 0 40.3% 57.5% 0.4% 1.6%
Hillsboro 320 360 170 181 1 7 2 47.1% 50.2% 0.2% 2.1%
Holmes 16 7 2 5 0 0 0 29.4% 67.8% 1.0% 1.3% Indian River 41 50 20 29 0 1 0 39.8% 57.7% 0.2% 1.9%
Jackson 27 16 7 9 0 0 0 42.1% 56.1% 0.6% 0.8%
Jefferson 13 6 3 2 0 0 0 53.9% 43.9% 0.5% 1.3%
Lafayette 5 3 1 2 0 0 0 31.5% 66.7% 0.4% 1.0%
Lake 86 89 37 50 0 1 0 41.3% 56.5% 0.3% 1.6%
Lee 150 184 74 106 0 4 1 39.9% 57.6% 0.2% 1.9%Leon 95 103 61 39 0 2 0 59.6% 37.9% 0.3% 1.9%Levy 21 13 5 7 0 0 0 42.4% 53.9% 0.5% 2.2%Liberty 8 2 1 1 0 0 0 42.2% 54.6% 1.6% 0.8%
Madison 11 6 3 3 0 0 0 48.9% 49.3% 0.5% 0.9%
Manatee 135 110 49 58 0 2 0 44.6% 52.6% 0.2% 2.3%Marion 96 103 45 55 1 2 1 43.4% 53.6% 0.5% 1.8%Martin 40 62 27 34 0 1 0 42.9% 54.8% 0.2% 1.8%Monroe 33 34 16 16 0 1 0 48.7% 47.4% 0.1% 3.2%
Nassau 21 24 7 16 0 0 0 29.2% 69.0% 0.4% 1.1%
Okaloosa 48 71 17 52 0 1 0 24.0% 73.7% 0.4% 1.4%Okeechobee 18 10 5 5 0 0 0 46.6% 51.3% 0.4% 1.3%Orange 232 280 140 135 0 4 1 50.1% 48.1% 0.0% 1.4%Osceola 66 56 28 26 0 1 0 50.6% 47.1% 0.3% 1.3%Palm Beach 531 433 270 153 3 6 2 62.3% 35.3% 0.8% 1.3%
Pasco 132 143 70 69 1 3 1 48.7% 48.0% 0.4% 2.4%
Pinellas 345 398 201 185 1 10 2 50.3% 46.4% 0.3% 2.5%Polk 163 169 75 90 1 2 1 44.6% 53.6% 0.3% 1.2%Putnam 50 26 12 13 0 0 0 46.2% 51.3% 0.6% 1.4%St. Johns 57 61 20 40 0 1 0 32.1% 65.1% 0.4% 2.0%
St. Lucie 78 78 42 35 0 1 0 53.3% 44.5% 0.2% 1.8%Santa Rosa 36 50 13 36 0 1 0 25.4% 72.1% 0.6% 1.4%
Sarasota 142 161 73 83 0 4 1 45.3% 51.6% 0.2% 2.5%
Seminole 133 138 59 76 0 2 1 43.0% 55.0% 0.1% 1.4%Sumter 24 22 10 12 0 0 0 43.3% 54.5% 0.5% 1.4%
Suwannee 16 12 4 8 0 0 0 32.8% 64.4% 0.9% 1.4%
Taylor 14 7 3 4 0 0 0 38.9% 59.6% 0.4% 0.9%
Union 11 4 1 2 0 0 0 36.8% 61.0% 0.9% 0.9%Volusia 172 184 97 82 0 3 1 53.0% 44.8% 0.3% 1.6%Wakulla 12 9 4 5 0 0 0 44.7% 52.5% 0.5% 1.7% Walton 33 18 6 12 0 0 0 30.8% 66.5% 0.7% 1.4%Washington 15 8 3 5 0 0 0 34.9% 62.3% 1.1% 1.2%
____________________________________________________________________________________________ 2000 Recorded Vote by CountyAdjusted for 175,000 uncounted ballots Uncounted Votes (000):Gore 126.3 72.1%Bush 45.0 25.7Nader 2.6 1.5Buchanan 0.5 0.3Other 0.7 0.4Total 175.1 100%(2.85% of 6138k total votes cast) Allocating the uncounted ballots, Gore won Florida by a minimum of 80,000 votes (49.5-48.2%).
This is a conservative estimate as it does not include butterfly ballots or electronic vote miscounts. Unctd Total Unctd% Adjusted Count (total votes cast) Adjusted Vote Share
Total Cast Total Gore Bush Buchanan Nader Other Gore Bush 175 6138 2.85% 3039 2958 18 100 23 49.51% 48.19% Alachua 0.33 86 0.38% 48 34 0.3 3.2 0.8 55.3% 39.8%Baker 0.14 8 1.69% 2 6 0.1 0.1 0.0 30.1% 68.1%Bay 0.66 59 1.11% 19 39 0.2 0.8 0.2 32.5% 65.3%Bradford 0.73 9 7.80% 4 6 0.1 0.1 0.0 38.3% 59.6%
Brevard 1.03 219 0.47% 98 115 0.6 4.5 0.9 44.7% 52.6% Broward 14.61 588 2.48% 397 181 0.8 7.3 1.7 67.5% 30.8%Calhoun 0.08 5 1.49% 2 3 0.1 0.0 0.0 42.1% 55.1%Charlotte 3.16 70 4.51% 32 36 0.2 1.5 0.2 45.6% 51.7%
Citrus 0.22 57 0.38% 26 30 0.3 1.4 0.3 44.7% 51.9%Clay 0.15 58 0.27% 15 42 0.2 0.6 0.2 25.6% 72.6% Collier 3.18 95 3.34% 32 61 0.1 1.4 0.3 33.8% 64.3%Columbia 0.69 19 3.61% 8 11 0.1 0.3 0.2 39.3% 58.0%
Miami-Dade 28.60 654 4.37% 349 297 0.6 5.8 1.3 53.4% 45.4%DeSoto 0.70 9 8.24% 4 4 0.0 0.2 0.0 45.0% 52.2%Dixie 0.33 5 6.64% 2 3 0.0 0.1 0.0 41.3% 55.7%
Duval 26.91 292 9.23% 127 159 0.7 3.2 1.4 43.7% 54.5%Escambia 4.37 121 3.61% 44 74 0.5 1.8 0.5 36.4% 61.3%
Flagler 0.06 27 0.23% 14 13 0.1 0.4 0.1 51.3% 46.5%Franklin 0.42 5 8.28% 2 3 0.0 0.1 0.0 46.4% 50.6%
Gadsden 2.07 17 12.3% 11 5 0.0 0.2 0.1 66.8% 31.5%
Gilchrist 0.29 6 5.07% 2 3 0.0 0.1 0.1 37.3% 59.4%Glades 0.37 4 9.98% 2 2 0.0 0.1 0.0 45.8% 51.8%Gulf 0.41 7 6.27% 3 4 0.1 0.1 0.0 41.1% 55.8%Hamilton 0.39 4 8.94% 2 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 46.0% 51.6%
Hardee 0.41 7 6.14% 3 4 0.0 0.1 0.0 39.7% 58.3% Hendry 0.80 9 8.95% 4 5 0.0 0.1 0.0 42.7% 55.4%Hernando 0.25 65 0.38% 33 31 0.2 1.5 0.2 50.1% 46.9%Highlands 1.01 36 2.79% 15 20 0.1 0.6 0.1 41.2% 56.6%
Hillsboro 9.17 369 2.48% 176 183 0.9 7.6 1.7 47.7% 49.6%
Holmes 0.14 8 1.84% 2 5 0.1 0.1 0.0 30.2% 67.0% Indian River 1.94 52 3.76% 21 29 0.1 1.0 0.2 41.1% 56.5%
Jackson 1.16 17 6.63% 8 9 0.1 0.2 0.1 44.1% 54.0%
Jefferson 0.57 6 9.22% 3 3 0.0 0.1 0.0 55.6% 42.2%
Lafayette 0.17 3 6.39% 1 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 34.1% 64.0%
Lake 3.61 92 3.92% 39 51 0.3 1.5 0.3 42.5% 55.2%
Lee 4.57 189 2.42% 77 107 0.3 3.7 0.8 40.7% 56.8%Leon 0.18 103 0.18% 62 39 0.3 1.9 0.4 59.6% 37.9%
Levy 0.76 13 5.64% 6 7 0.1 0.3 0.1 44.1% 52.3%Liberty 0.19 3 7.24% 1 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 44.4% 52.6%
Madison 0.48 7 7.23% 3 3 0.0 0.1 0.0 50.6% 47.6%
Manatee 1.41 112 1.26% 50 58 0.3 2.5 0.3 45.0% 52.2%Marion 3.35 106 3.15% 47 56 0.6 1.9 0.8 44.3% 52.7%
Martin 0.61 63 0.97% 27 34 0.1 1.1 0.2 43.2% 54.5%Monroe 0.18 34 0.53% 17 16 0.0 1.1 0.2 48.8% 47.3%
Nassau 1.58 25 6.28% 8 17 0.1 0.3 0.1 31.9% 66.3%
Okaloosa 0.77 71 1.07% 17 52 0.3 1.0 0.4 24.5% 73.2%Okeechobee 0.86 11 8.01% 5 5 0.0 0.1 0.0 48.6% 49.3%Orange 2.40 278 0.86% 142 135 0.0 3.9 1.1 50.3% 47.9%Osceola 1.68 57 2.94% 29 27 0.1 0.8 0.4 51.3% 46.5%Palm Beach 29.70 457 6.49% 291 161 3.5 6.0 1.6 62.9% 34.7%
Pasco 3.92 147 2.67% 72 70 0.6 3.5 0.6 49.4% 47.5%
Pinellas 8.49 407 2.09% 207 187 1.0 10.1 2.0 50.8% 46.0%Polk 0.90 170 0.53% 76 91 0.5 2.1 0.5 44.7% 53.4%Putnam 0.17 26 0.64% 12 13 0.1 0.4 0.1 46.3% 51.1%St. Johns 3.24 64 5.06% 22 40 0.2 1.3 0.3 34.1% 63.1%
St. Lucie 0.34 78 0.43% 42 35 0.1 1.4 0.2 53.4% 44.4%Santa Rosa 0.37 51 0.72% 13 36 0.3 0.7 0.2 25.8% 71.8%
Sarasota 0.56 162 0.35% 73 83 0.3 4.1 0.6 45.4% 51.5%
Seminole 0.65 138 0.47% 60 76 0.2 2.0 0.6 43.1% 54.8%Sumter 0.76 23 3.31% 10 12 0.1 0.3 0.1 44.2% 53.5%
Suwannee 0.73 13 5.56% 5 8 0.1 0.2 0.1 34.9% 62.2%
Taylor 0.60 7 8.09% 3 4 0.0 0.1 0.0 41.6% 56.8%
Union 0.26 4 6.32% 2 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 39.0% 58.8%Volusia 0.50 184 0.27% 98 82 0.5 2.9 0.6 53.0% 44.8%Wakulla 0.42 9 4.68% 4 5 0.0 0.2 0.0 46.0% 51.3% Walton 0.22 19 1.18% 6 12 0.1 0.3 0.1 31.3% 66.0%Washington 0.33 8 3.94% 3 5 0.1 0.1 0.0 36.4% 60.8%
____________________________________________________________________________________________ County Vote changes from 2000 by Machine Type 2000 2004 Vote Change Bush Incr Machine............ Vote GORE BUSH OTHER Vote KERRY BUSH OTHER KERRY BUSH OTHER Margin IncidentsDRE 3078 53.9% 44.7% 1.4% 3835 51.3% 47.8% 0.9% 342 443 -27 5.7% 231Optiscan 2831 44.2% 54.2% 1.6% 3728 42.3% 57.0% 0.7% 323 602 -28 4.7% 81Total 5909 48.8% 48.8% 2.3% 7563 47.1% 52.1% 0.8% 664 1045 -55 5.0% 312 DRE Broward 571 67.7% 31.1% 1.2% 700 64.6% 34.8% 0.5% 65.8 66.4 -3.3 6.8% 56Charlotte 67 44.6% 53.2% 2.2% 79 43.2% 56.1% 0.7% 4.6 9.0 -0.9 4.2% 0
Collier 92 32.6% 65.9% 1.5% 128 34.2% 65.3% 0.5% 13.8 23.1 -0.8 -2.1% 0Miami-Dade 624 52.7% 46.4% 0.9% 767 53.0% 46.8% 0.3% 77.3 69.1 -3.4 0.1% 54Hillsboro 358 47.4% 50.5% 2.1% 460 46.4% 53.2% 0.4% 43.9 63.8 -5.5 3.7% 21
Indian River 49 40.1% 58.0% 1.9% 61 39.2% 60.3% 0.5% 4.2 8.2 -0.7 3.2% 0
Lafayette 2 31.8% 67.2% 1.0% 3 25.5% 74.2% 0.3% 0.1 0.8 0.0 13.3% 0
Lake 88 41.5% 56.8% 1.7% 123 39.1% 60.3% 0.5% 11.6 24.4 -0.8 6.0% 3
Martin 62 43.1% 55.0% 1.8% 72 42.0% 57.5% 0.6% 3.6 7.4 -0.7 3.6% 1Nassau 23 29.4% 69.5% 1.1% 32 26.3% 73.1% 0.6% 1.7 7.5 -0.1 6.6% 0
Palm Beach 423 63.8% 36.2% 0.0% 541 60.6% 39.2% 0.3% 58.0 58.9 1.6 6.2% 88Pasco 142 49.1% 48.5% 2.4% 189 44.7% 54.5% 0.8% 15.2 34.6 -2.0 10.4% 0
Pinellas 395 50.7% 46.7% 2.5% 453 49.7% 49.8% 0.5% 24.7 40.8 -7.6 4.1% 6Sarasota 160 45.5% 51.9% 2.5% 194 45.5% 53.9% 0.6% 15.5 21.5 -2.8 2.0% 2
Sumter 22 43.7% 54.9% 1.4% 32 36.6% 62.6% 0.8% 1.9 7.7 -0.1 14.7% 0
OPTISCAN Alachua 85 55.9% 40.3% 3.8% 111 56.4% 43.1% 0.5% 15.0 13.5 -2.7 2.3% 0Baker 8 29.7% 69.6% 0.7% 10 21.9% 77.8% 0.2% -0.2 2.1 0.0 16.0% 0Bay 58 32.3% 66.3% 1.4% 75 28.2% 71.4% 0.5% 2.2 14.8 -0.5 9.3% 0Bradford 9 35.9% 63.2% 1.0% 11 30.0% 69.8% 0.3% 0.2 2.1 -0.1 12.5% 0
Brevard 217 44.9% 53.1% 2.1% 264 41.7% 57.9% 0.5% 12.8 37.7 -3.3 7.9% 4 Calhoun 5 42.5% 56.7% 0.8% 6 35.7% 63.7% 0.6% 0.0 0.9 0.0 13.9% 0Citrus 57 45.0% 52.5% 2.4% 69 42.3% 57.1% 0.7% 3.7 9.7 -0.9 7.3% 0Clay 57 25.7% 73.3% 1.0% 81 23.3% 76.4% 0.3% 4.3 20.1 -0.3 5.4% 0Columbia 18 38.6% 60.0% 1.4% 25 32.3% 67.3% 0.4% 1.0 5.8 -0.1 13.6% 0
De Soto 8 42.9% 55.0% 2.0% 9 41.3% 58.2% 0.5% 0.6 1.3 -0.1 4.8% 0
Dixie 5 39.7% 58.7% 1.6% 6 30.5% 69.0% 0.5% 0.1 1.7 0.0 19.6% 0
Duval 263 41.1% 57.9% 1.0% 379 41.8% 57.9% 0.3% 50.3 67.2 -1.5 -0.7% 12Escambia 116 35.4% 63.1% 1.5% 142 33.9% 65.7% 0.4% 7.3 20.4 -1.2 4.0% 1
Flagler 27 51.6% 46.8% 1.6% 38 48.4% 51.1% 0.5% 4.7 7.0 -0.3 7.5% 0Franklin 5 44.6% 53.5% 1.9% 6 40.6% 58.8% 0.6% 0.4 1.0 0.0 9.2% 0
Gadsden 15 66.5% 32.6% 0.9% 21 69.9% 29.9% 0.3% 4.9 1.5 -0.1 -6.1% 1
Gilchrist 5 36.0% 62.2% 1.8% 7 28.9% 70.7% 0.5% 0.1 1.6 -0.1 15.6% 0Glades 3 43.2% 55.1% 1.7% 4 41.1% 58.5% 0.4% 0.3 0.6 0.0 5.4% 0Gulf 6 39.7% 58.8% 1.4% 7 33.2% 66.3% 0.6% 0.0 1.2 0.0 14.0% 0Hamilton 4 44.1% 55.0% 0.9% 5 44.6% 55.1% 0.3% 0.5 0.6 0.0 -0.4% 0
Hardee 6 37.9% 60.9% 1.2% 7 29.7% 69.8% 0.5% -0.2 1.3 0.0 17.0% 0Hendry 8 40.0% 58.7% 1.3% 10 40.7% 59.1% 0.2% 0.7 1.0 -0.1 -0.2% 0Hernando 65 50.4% 47.3% 2.3% 79 46.3% 53.1% 0.6% 3.9 11.2 -1.0 9.8% 0Highlands 35 40.6% 57.9% 1.6% 41 37.1% 62.5% 0.5% 1.2 5.7 -0.4 8.1% 0
Holmes 7 29.9% 68.8% 1.3% 8 21.9% 77.6% 0.5% -0.4 1.4 -0.1 16.8% 0 Jackson 16 42.5% 56.6% 0.9% 20 38.3% 61.4% 0.4% 0.7 3.0 -0.1 9.1% 0
Jefferson 6 54.4% 44.3% 1.4% 7 55.4% 44.2% 0.4% 1.1 0.8 0.0 -1.1% 0
Lee 183 40.1% 57.9% 2.0% 240 39.3% 60.1% 0.6% 20.8 38.3 -2.2 3.1% 0Leon 102 60.0% 38.1% 1.9% 136 61.7% 38.0% 0.4% 22.4 12.5 -1.5 -1.9% 26
Levy 13 43.0% 54.7% 2.3% 17 36.6% 62.8% 0.6% 0.7 3.6 -0.2 14.5% 0 Liberty 2 43.2% 56.0% 0.8% 3 35.5% 64.0% 0.5% 0.1 0.6 0.0 15.7% 0
Madison 6 49.4% 49.8% 0.9% 8 48.9% 50.6% 0.5% 1.0 1.2 0.0 1.4% 0
Manatee 110 44.9% 52.9% 2.3% 143 42.8% 56.8% 0.5% 12.1 23.3 -1.8 6.0% 0Marion 102 44.0% 54.3% 1.8% 139 41.1% 58.4% 0.5% 12.6 26.1 -1.2 6.9% 2
Monroe 34 49.0% 47.7% 3.2% 39 49.9% 49.4% 0.7% 3.2 3.4 -0.8 0.8% 0
Okaloosa 70 24.2% 74.4% 1.4% 89 21.7% 77.9% 0.4% 2.4 17.6 -0.6 6.1% 0Okeechobee 10 46.9% 51.7% 1.3% 12 42.3% 57.4% 0.3% 0.6 1.9 -0.1 10.3% 0Orange 275 51.0% 49.0% 0.0% 387 50.0% 49.7% 0.3% 53.0 57.9 1.1 1.9% 16Osceola 55 51.1% 47.6% 1.3% 82 47.1% 52.6% 0.3% 10.4 16.9 -0.5 9.0% 1Polk 168 44.9% 53.9% 1.2% 210 40.9% 58.7% 0.4% 10.8 33.2 -1.3 8.8% 5 Putnam 26 46.7% 51.9% 1.5% 31 40.2% 59.3% 0.4% 0.3 4.9 -0.2 13.9% 1St. Johns 60 32.4% 65.6% 2.0% 86 30.7% 68.8% 0.5% 6.9 19.6 -0.8 4.9% 0
St. Lucie 78 53.5% 44.7% 1.8% 100 51.9% 47.7% 0.4% 10.3 12.9 -0.9 4.6% 0Santa Rosa 50 25.7% 72.8% 1.5% 67 21.9% 77.7% 0.4% 1.8 15.7 -0.4 8.7% 0
Seminole 137 43.3% 55.3% 1.4% 186 41.4% 58.2% 0.3% 17.8 32.4 -1.4 4.7% 4 Suwannee 12 33.2% 65.3% 1.5% 16 28.7% 70.8% 0.5% 0.4 3.1 -0.1 10.0% 0
Taylor 7 39.2% 60.0% 0.9% 9 35.6% 63.9% 0.5% 0.4 1.4 0.0 7.4% 0
Union 4 37.3% 61.8% 0.9% 5 26.8% 72.8% 0.3% -0.2 1.1 0.0 21.5% 0Volusia 183 53.3% 45.1% 1.6% 228 50.6% 49.0% 0.4% 18.0 29.2 -2.0 6.5% 8Wakulla 8 45.2% 53.1% 1.8% 12 41.8% 57.8% 0.4% 1.1 2.3 -0.1 8.1% 0 Walton 18 31.2% 67.3% 1.5% 24 26.0% 73.5% 0.5% 0.6 5.4 -0.1 11.3% 0Washington 8 35.5% 63.3% 1.2% 10 28.2% 71.3% 0.5% 0.1 2.4 0.0 15.3% 0
____________________________________________________________________________________________ Democratic County Vote and Registration Share Trend
(1992-2004) V= Vote shareR = Registration shareVR = 100*V/R Weighted V92 V96 V00 V04 R96 R00 R04 VR96 VR00 VR04DRE 42.3 52.7 53.3 51.3 44.5 42.0 41.6 118 127 125Optiscan 35.1 42.5 43.4 42.3 51.1 47.8 41.2 83 91 102 Total 38.9 47.8 48.8 47.1 47.7 44.8 41.4 100 109 114 DRE Broward 52 64 67 65 53 51 50 121 131 129Charlotte 37 43 44 43 36 34 32 119 129 135
Collier 26 32 32 34 25 24 24 128 133 143Miami-Dade 47 57 53 53 48 44 43 119 120 123Hillsboro 37 47 47 46 48 44 42 98 107 110
Indian River 28 37 40 39 33 31 30 112 129 131
Lafayette 33 40 41 25 37 36 34 108 114 75
Lake 32 40 40 39 34 32 30 118 125 130
Martin 28 38 43 42 28 27 28 136 159 150Nassau 30 34 29 26 56 48 37 61 60 71
Palm Beach 46 58 62 61 46 45 45 126 138 135
Pasco 39 50 49 45 43 40 37 116 123 121
Pinellas 38 49 50 50 39 37 38 126 135 131Sarasota 35 43 45 45 31 31 31 139 145 147
Sumter 41 46 43 37 57 48 41 81 90 89
OPTISCAN Alachua 50 54 55 56 57 53 51 95 104 111Baker 29 34 29 22 89 83 69 38 35 32Bay 28 33 32 28 54 48 39 61 67 72Bradford 37 41 35 30 77 70 61 53 50 49
Brevard 31 41 45 42 40 38 37 103 118 113 Calhoun 37 43 42 36 91 88 82 47 48 43Citrus 36 44 45 42 46 41 39 96 110 108Clay 23 28 26 23 31 29 26 90 90 90Columbia 37 41 38 32 68 64 57 60 59 57
DeSoto 36 43 43 41 70 64 59 61 67 70 Dixie 43 46 39 31 89 86 77 52 45 40
Duval 37 44 41 42 54 50 46 81 82 91Escambia 31 35 35 34 51 46 41 69 76 83
Flagler 41 48 51 48 42 40 38 114 128 127Franklin 35 46 44 41 87 81 77 53 54 53
Gadsden 59 66 66 70 88 85 83 75 78 84
Gilchrist 38 41 35 29 78 72 59 53 49 49Glades 39 45 43 41 76 69 65 59 62 63Gulf 33 41 39 33 84 79 67 49 49 49Hamilton 44 47 43 45 91 86 79 52 50 56
Hardee 31 39 38 30 79 73 64 49 52 46Hendry 34 44 40 41 66 63 57 67 63 71Hernando 39 49 50 46 42 40 39 117 125 119Highlands 35 42 40 37 45 42 40 93 95 93
Holmes 29 34 29 22 90 83 73 38 35 30 Jackson 37 43 42 38 82 79 72 52 53 53
Jefferson 49 53 54 55 83 79 72 64 68 77
Lee 34 36 31 39 94 89 83 38 35 47Leon 49 55 60 62 61 59 57 90 102 108
Levy 40 45 42 37 72 67 60 63 63 61 Liberty 32 40 42 36 96 94 88 42 45 40
Madison 45 50 49 49 86 84 80 58 58 61
Manatee 34 43 45 43 37 35 33 116 129 130Marion 36 41 43 41 45 42 40 91 102 103
Monroe 36 47 49 50 44 39 36 107 126 139
Okaloosa 20 26 24 22 32 28 25 81 86 87Okeechobee 37 49 47 42 69 65 58 71 72 73Orange 35 46 50 50 41 41 40 112 122 125Osceola 33 47 51 47 44 42 40 107 121 118Polk 35 44 45 41 50 46 43 88 98 95 Putnam 42 48 46 40 67 63 58 72 73 69St. Johns 31 34 32 31 39 34 28 87 94 110
St. Lucie 35 49 53 52 44 41 41 111 129 127Santa Rosa 20 26 25 22 44 35 28 59 71 78
Seminole 30 39 43 41 35 33 32 111 130 130 Suwannee 35 37 33 29 76 71 64 49 46 45
Taylor 36 45 39 36 87 82 76 52 48 47
Union 35 40 37 27 91 84 75 44 44 36Volusia 42 49 53 51 46 43 41 107 123 123Wakulla 35 43 45 42 80 74 67 54 61 62 Walton 29 34 31 26 63 53 37 54 58 70Washington 32 38 35 28 82 74 67 46 47 42
____________________________________________________________________________________________
Democratic and Republican Registration Shares
1996 2000 2004 1996 2000 2004
Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep Democratic Margin
Vote Share 47.8 42.3 48.8 48.8 47.1 52.1 5.5 0.0 (5.0)
Reg. Share 47.7 39.8 44.8 38.2 41.4 37.8 7.9 6.6 4.6
VoteSh/RegSh 100.0 106.3 108.9 127.7 113.8 137.8 (6.3) (18.8) (24.0)
Registration Share
DRE 44.5 41.6 42.0 39.1 41.6 36.1 2.9 2.9 4.5
Optical Scan 51.0 37.8 47.7 37.2 41.2 39.5 13.2 10.5 1.7
County Registration Share
DRE
Broward 53 33 51 30 50 27 20 21 23
Charlotte 36 52 34 48 32 45 (16) (14) (13)
Collier 25 62 24 57 24 53 (37) (33) (29)
Miami-Dade 48 39 44 38 43 35 9 6 8
Hillsboro 48 38 44 37 42 35 10 7 7
Indian River 33 57 31 54 30 51 (24) (23) (21)
Lafayette 37 51 36 49 34 47 (14) (13) (13)
Lake 34 52 32 49 30 48 (18) (17) (18)
Martin 28 60 27 56 28 52 (32) (29) (24)
Nassau 56 37 48 41 37 49 19 7 (12)
Palm Beach 46 39 45 35 45 32 7 10 13
Pasco 43 43 40 41 37 40 0 (1) (3)
Pinellas 39 45 37 42 38 39 (6) (5) (1)
Sarasota 31 56 31 52 31 48 (25) (21) (17)
Sumter 57 34 48 38 41 44 23 10 (3)
OPSCAN
Alachua 57 30 53 28 51 28 27 25 23
Baker 89 9 83 14 69 24 80 69 45
Bay 54 34 48 37 39 44 20 11 (5)
Bradford 77 16 70 21 61 28 61 49 33
Brevard 40 48 38 46 37 45 (8) (8) (8)
Calhoun 91 7 88 8 82 12 84 80 70
Citrus 46 41 41 41 39 41 5 0 (2)
Clay 31 56 29 56 26 57 (25) (27) (31)
Columbia 68 25 64 26 57 31 43 38 26
DeSoto 70 24 64 24 59 25 46 40 34
Dixie 89 8 86 10 77 15 81 76 62
Duval 54 35 50 36 46 37 19 14 9
Escambia 51 40 46 41 41 44 11 5 (3)
Flagler 42 44 40 41 38 41 (2) (1) (3)
Franklin 87 10 81 14 77 16 77 67 61
Gadsden 88 9 85 10 83 11 79 75 72
Gilchrist 78 17 72 20 59 30 61 52 29
Glades 76 19 69 22 65 25 57 47 40
Gulf 84 13 79 16 67 27 71 63 40
Hamilton 91 7 86 10 79 15 84 76 64
Hardee 79 17 73 21 64 27 62 52 37
Hendry 66 26 63 28 57 31 40 35 26
Hernando 42 45 40 43 39 41 (3) (3) (2)
Highlands 45 45 42 45 40 44 0 (3) (4)
Holmes 90 8 83 13 73 21 82 70 52
Jackson 82 14 79 16 72 22 68 63 50
Jefferson 83 13 79 15 72 21 70 64 51
Lee 94 5 89 8 83 13 89 81 70
Leon 61 27 59 27 57 27 34 32 30
Levy 72 22 67 24 60 28 50 43 32
Liberty 96 3 94 4 88 8 93 90 80
Madison 86 11 84 12 80 15 75 72 65
Manatee 37 50 35 47 33 44 (13) (12) (11)
Marion 45 43 42 43 40 43 2 (1) (3)
Monroe 44 40 39 39 36 39 4 0 (3)
Okaloosa 32 56 28 56 25 57 (24) (28) (32)
Okeechobee 69 24 65 27 58 30 45 38 28
Orange 41 44 41 40 40 35 (3) 1 5
Osceola 44 40 42 36 40 33 4 6 7
Polk 50 40 46 39 43 39 10 7 4
Putnam 67 25 63 26 58 28 42 37 30
St. Johns 39 49 34 50 28 53 (10) (16) (25)
St. Lucie 44 41 41 39 41 37 3 2 4
Santa Rosa 44 47 35 52 28 56 (3) (17) (28)
Seminole 35 52 33 48 32 45 (17) (15) (13)
Suwannee 76 19 71 22 64 27 57 49 37
Taylor 87 11 82 14 76 19 76 68 57
Union 91 7 84 12 75 18 84 72 57
Volusia 46 40 43 38 41 36 6 5 5
Wakulla 80 15 74 19 67 24 65 55 43
Walton 63 29 53 35 37 50 34 18 (13)
Washington 82 14 74 19 67 25 68 55 42
____________________________________________________________________________________________
County Presidential Vote vs. Registration Vote Share / Registration ShareKVS = Kerry / Democratic BVS = Bush / Republican OVS = Other / Other Vote Total / Registration TotalKVR = Kerry / Democratic BVR = Bush / Republican OVR = Other / Other
Vote Share ----Registration Share---- --Vote/Reg Share-- -Vote/Registration-
County...... Kerry Bush Total Dem Rep Other KVS BVS OVS KVR BVR OVR
DRE 52.1% 47.4% 4,718 41.6% 36.1% 22.3% 125% 131% 2.4% 91% 95% 4%
OPTISCAN 42.3% 57.3% 4,382 41.2% 39.5% 19.3% 102% 145% 2.6% 76% 108% 4%
TOTAL 47.3% 52.3% 9,100 41.4% 37.8% 20.8% 114% 138% 2.5% 84% 102% 4%
DRE
Broward 64.6% 34.8% 963 51% 28% 21% 127% 124% 2.6% 92% 90% 2%
Charlotte 43.2% 56.1% 103 34% 47% 19% 128% 119% 3.7% 98% 91% 3%
Collier 34.2% 65.3% 150 25% 56% 19% 138% 116% 2.5% 117% 99% 2%
Dade 53.0% 46.8% 943 43% 36% 20% 122% 128% 1.3% 99% 104% 1%
Hillsborough 46.4% 53.2% 89 264% 223% -387% 18% 24% -0.1% 91% 123% 2%
Indian River 39.2% 60.3% 74 31% 53% 16% 125% 114% 3.0% 103% 94% 3%
Lafayette 25.5% 74.2% 4 83% 14% 3% 31% 535% 10.9% 25% 443% 9%
Lake 39.1% 60.3% 139 36% 50% 14% 108% 121% 3.8% 96% 107% 3%
Martin 42.0% 57.5% 89 29% 56% 15% 146% 102% 3.8% 118% 83% 3%
Nassau 26.3% 73.1% 36 42% 46% 11% 62% 158% 5.0% 56% 142% 4%
Palm Beach 60.6% 39.2% 650 47% 34% 19% 130% 115% 1.5% 108% 96% 1%
Pasco 44.7% 54.5% 240 39% 41% 20% 115% 133% 3.8% 90% 105% 3%
Pinellas 49.7% 49.8% 536 39% 42% 19% 126% 119% 2.8% 107% 100% 2%
Sarasota 45.5% 53.9% 219 32% 51% 18% 144% 106% 3.7% 128% 94% 3%
Sumter 36.6% 62.6% 35 44% 43% 13% 84% 145% 5.9% 76% 131% 5%
OPTISCAN
Alachua 56.4% 43.1% 116 54% 29% 17.3% 105% 150% 2.9% 100% 143% 3%
Baker 21.9% 77.8% 12 75% 20% 4.7% 29% 382% 4.7% 25% 321% 4%
Bay 28.2% 71.4% 87 45% 42% 13.2% 63% 170% 3.6% 54% 145% 3%
Bradford 30.0% 69.8% 14 64% 27% 8.3% 47% 254% 3.1% 37% 202% 2%
Brevard 41.7% 57.9% 301 38% 47% 14.6% 109% 123% 3.1% 95% 108% 3%
Calhoun 35.7% 63.7% 8 83% 13% 4.5% 43% 497% 14.1% 33% 375% 11%
Citrus 42.3% 57.1% 82 41% 43% 16.8% 104% 134% 3.9% 88% 113% 3%
Clay 23.3% 76.4% 91 27% 58% 14.9% 86% 132% 2.1% 76% 117% 2%
Columbia 32.3% 67.3% 30 61% 30% 8.5% 53% 221% 5.2% 44% 182% 4%
DeSoto 41.3% 58.2% 14 61% 26% 12.7% 67% 224% 4.0% 46% 153% 3%
Dixie 30.5% 69.0% 9 80% 14% 5.4% 38% 478% 8.4% 28% 347% 6%
Duval 41.8% 57.9% 426 49% 38% 12.8% 85% 152% 2.5% 76% 135% 2%
Escambia 33.9% 65.7% 164 44% 44% 11.9% 76% 150% 3.2% 66% 130% 3%
Flagler 48.4% 51.1% 40 40% 42% 18.5% 122% 122% 2.6% 116% 117% 2%
Franklin 40.6% 58.8% 7 77% 17% 5.5% 53% 339% 11.4% 43% 276% 9%
Gadsden 69.9% 29.9% 25 84% 11% 4.5% 83% 271% 5.7% 69% 225% 5%
Gilchrist 28.9% 70.7% 8 63% 29% 8.6% 46% 246% 5.3% 40% 214% 5%
Glades 41.1% 58.5% 6 68% 24% 8.8% 61% 248% 4.4% 42% 173% 3%
Gulf 33.2% 66.3% 9 70% 25% 5.4% 48% 267% 10.2% 38% 214% 8%
Hamilton 44.6% 55.1% 7 81% 15% 3.7% 55% 370% 8.5% 38% 258% 6%
Hardee 29.7% 69.8% 12 66% 26% 8.1% 45% 269% 6.6% 28% 167% 4%
Hendry 40.7% 59.1% 16 59% 31% 9.7% 69% 190% 2.5% 43% 119% 2%
Hernando 46.3% 53.1% 100 40% 43% 17.5% 116% 124% 3.7% 92% 98% 3%
Highlands 37.1% 62.5% 59 41% 44% 15.1% 91% 141% 3.0% 65% 100% 2%
Holmes 21.9% 77.6% 10 74% 20% 5.4% 29% 384% 9.4% 24% 314% 8%
Jackson 38.3% 61.4% 25 75% 21% 4.8% 51% 298% 7.8% 40% 231% 6%
Jefferson 55.4% 44.2% 9 75% 20% 4.8% 74% 219% 7.5% 64% 190% 7%
Lee 39.3% 60.1% 285 31% 49% 20.0% 125% 124% 2.9% 105% 104% 2%
Leon 61.7% 38.0% 140 60% 28% 11.6% 102% 136% 3.0% 99% 132% 3%
Levy 36.6% 62.8% 20 64% 28% 8.4% 57% 226% 7.0% 48% 190% 6%
Liberty 35.5% 64.0% 4 91% 7% 2.5% 39% 943% 18.4% 31% 741% 14%
Madison 48.9% 50.6% 11 81% 15% 3.7% 60% 333% 13.4% 47% 261% 11%
Manatee 42.8% 56.8% 177 34% 46% 20.6% 127% 124% 2.3% 103% 100% 2%
Marion 41.1% 58.4% 164 42% 45% 13.3% 98% 130% 3.5% 83% 111% 3%
Monroe 49.9% 49.4% 51 39% 39% 22.1% 129% 125% 3.3% 101% 98% 3%
Okaloosa 21.7% 77.9% 117 26% 57% 16.8% 84% 136% 2.5% 64% 104% 2%
Okeechobee 42.3% 57.4% 17 62% 29% 9.2% 68% 199% 2.9% 50% 144% 2%
Orange 50.0% 49.7% 442 42% 38% 20.2% 120% 130% 1.5% 105% 114% 1%
Osceola 47.1% 52.6% 105 42% 35% 22.6% 112% 148% 1.5% 88% 116% 1%
Polk 40.9% 58.7% 261 45% 40% 14.7% 91% 146% 2.6% 73% 118% 2%
Putnam 40.2% 59.3% 42 59% 28% 12.4% 68% 208% 3.5% 50% 154% 3%
St. Johns 30.7% 68.8% 94 31% 54% 14.9% 98% 128% 3.2% 90% 117% 3%
St. Lucie 51.9% 47.7% 124 43% 39% 18.7% 122% 124% 2.3% 98% 100% 2%
Santa Rosa 21.9% 77.7% 85 31% 57% 12.5% 71% 137% 3.5% 56% 108% 3%
Seminole 41.4% 58.2% 196 34% 48% 18.3% 122% 122% 1.7% 116% 115% 2%
Suwannee 28.7% 70.8% 20 69% 27% 4.5% 42% 265% 11.9% 34% 214% 10%
Taylor 35.6% 63.9% 11 79% 18% 3.3% 45% 353% 16.1% 36% 277% 13%
Union 26.8% 72.8% 6 79% 16% 4.9% 34% 460% 6.9% 25% 335% 5%
Volusia 50.6% 49.0% 269 43% 38% 19.0% 118% 129% 2.1% 100% 109% 2%
Wakulla 41.8% 57.8% 14 71% 23% 6.0% 59% 249% 6.7% 50% 212% 6%
Walton 26.0% 73.5% 29 45% 45% 10.8% 58% 165% 4.6% 49% 138% 4%
Washington 28.2% 71.3% 13 69% 25% 6.1% 41% 288% 8.4% 33% 229% 7%