Implausible Gore voter defection: Further Confirmation of a Kerry Landslide
TruthIsAll
This analysis shows that for Bush to obtain his 3 million "mandate", he needed 21% of former Gore voters. According to the Final NEP (which was forced to match the recorded vote), he had 10%.
These are the facts:
There were 105.42m recorded votes in 2000.
Gore won by 51.00-50.46m or 48.4-47.9% (3.95m for Nader/other).
There were 122.3m recorded votes in 2004.
Bush won by 62.04-59.03m or 50.7-48.3% (1.22m for Nader/other).
These are the assumptions:
Of the 105.4m who voted in 2000, approximately
1) 5.3m died (1.25% annual voter mortality)
2) 5.0m did not return to vote in 2004 (95% turnout)
There were approximately 95.1m returning 2000 voters in 2004.
Assuming an equal 95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004, 46.0m were former Gore, 45.5m Bush and 3.6m Nader/other voters. According to the Census Bureau, 125.7m votes were cast in 2004 (3.4m were uncounted).
There were approximately 30.6 million new voters in 2004!
According to the 12:22am National Exit Poll:
1) Kerry won 57% (17.4m) of new voters;
Bush won 41% (12.5m)
2) Kerry won 64% (2.3m) of returning Nader/others;
Bush won 17% (0.6m)
3) Kerry won 10% (4.6m) of returning Bush voters;
Bush won 90% (41.0m) of returning Bush voters.
4) Kerry won 91% (41.9m) of returning Gore voters;
Bush won 8% (3.7m) of returning Gore voters
If you believe that the vote shares for 1,2,3 above
are accurate, and that Bush did in fact win by 3 million votes, then you must
also believe that Bush won 9.7m of 46.0m ( 21%) Gore voters.
Approximately 3200 of 13047 respondents were asked how they voted in 2000. The
exit poll vote discrepancy was 13% (21-8%). Assuming a 30% "cluster
effect", the margin of error is 2.3%. The probability of a 13% vote
discrepancy is ZERO.
So why would you believe that 21% of Gore voters defected to
Bush while only 10% of Bush voters defected to Kerry?
On the other hand, if you believe that the vote shares in 4) are also
accurate and that Bush won just 8% of returning Gore voters, then you must
believe that Kerry won the True Vote by over 8 million.
The True Vote is calculated as:Kerry = 91% of Gore + 10% of Bush +57% of New +64% of Other (Nader et al)Bush = 90% of Bush + 8% of Gore +41% of New +17% of Other Kerry = 66.2m (52.6%) = 41.9 + 4.6 + 17.4 +2.3 Bush = 57.8m (46.0%) = 41.0 + 3.7 + 12.5 +0.6 _________________________________________________________ Bush required 21% of Gore voters in order to match his 2004 vote share Assumptions:12:22am NEP with adjusted Gore vote shares Feasible weights based on 1.25% annual voter mortality and 95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004. Census total votes cast: 125.7m Vote share Votes (mil) Turnout Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other DNV na 30.6 24.3% 57% 41% 2% 17.4 12.5 0.6 Gore 95% 46.0 36.6% 78% 21% 1% 35.9 9.7 0.5 Bush 95% 45.5 36.2% 10% 90% 0% 4.6 41.0 0.0 Other 95% 3.6 2.8% 64% 17% 19% 2.3 0.6 0.7 Total 100.1 125.7 100% 47.9% 50.7% 1.4% 60.2 63.8 1.8 _________________________________________________________ Calculation of the True Vote Assumptions:Same as above but use actual 12:22am NEP vote shares
Kerry wins by 8.4m votes Vote share Votes (mil) Turnout Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other DNV na 30.6 24.3% 57% 41% 2% 17.4 12.5 0.6 Gore 95% 46.0 36.6% 91% 8% 1% 41.9 3.7 0.5 Bush 95% 45.5 36.2% 10% 90% 0% 4.6 41.0 0.0 Other 95% 3.6 2.8% 64% 17% 19% 2.3 0.6 0.7 Total 100.15 125.7 100% 52.6% 46.0% 1.4% 66.2 57.8 1.8 Sensitivity Analysis Calculate Kerry's vote share over a range of new and returning Gore vote shares. The True Vote scenario is the most-likely base case. Kerry Kerry Share of New voters (DNV in 2000) %Gore 53.0% 55.0% 57.0% 59.0% 61.0% Kerry Vote share95% 53.1% 53.6% 54.1% 54.6% 55.1%93% 52.4% 52.9% 53.4% 53.8% 54.3%91% 51.7% 52.1% 52.6% 53.1% 53.6%89% 50.9% 51.4% 51.9% 52.4% 52.9%87% 50.2% 50.7% 51.2% 51.6% 52.1% Kerry Margin (millions) 95% 9.6 10.8 12.1 13.3 14.5 93% 7.8 9.0 10.2 11.4 12.7 91% 5.9 7.1 8.4 9.6 10.8 89% 4.1 5.3 6.5 7.7 9.0 87% 2.2 3.5 4.7 5.9 7.1 _________________________________________________________ 2004 National Exit Poll (12:22am Composite)
(13047 respondents) 122.3m recorded votes Kerry wins by 4.5m votes Vote share Votes (mil) Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush OtherDNV 20.8 17% 57% 41% 2% 11.9 8.5 0.4 Gore 47.7 39% 91% 8% 1% 43.4 3.8 0.5 Bush 50.1 41% 10% 90% 0% 5.0 45.1 0.0 Other 3.7 3% 64% 17% 19% 2.3 0.6 0.7 Total 122.3 100% 51.2% 47.5% 1.3% 62.6 58.1 1.6 ______________________________________________________________ 2004 Final Exit Poll (forced to match the recorded vote)(13660 respondents) Bush wins by 2.8m votes Vote share Votes (mil) Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush OtherDNV 20.8 17% 54% 45% 1% 11.2 9.4 0.2 Gore 45.3 37% 90% 9% 1% 40.7 4.1 0.5 Bush 52.6 43% 9% 91% 0% 4.7 47.9 0.0 Other 3.7 3% 71% 21% 8% 2.6 0.8 0.3 Total 122.3 100% 48.5% 50.7% 0.8% 59.3 62.1 1.0 ______________________________________________________________