Election Simulation Model
TruthIsAll
This model calculates state pre-election projections and exit poll simulations discrepancies from the recorded vote.
The 2004 Election Simulation Model contains worksheets for 1) state pre-election and exit polls, 2) 18 national pre-election polls, 3) 12:22am National Exit Poll, 4) “How Voted in 2000” demographic sensitivity analysis, 5) state and precinct exit poll response optimization analysis; 6) Gender vote analysis; 7) Ohio exit poll and 8) Census 2004 vote data.
The key assumptions which drive the model are pre-election undecided voter allocation and the exit poll “cluster” effect.
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Input Assumptions
Undecided to Kerry: 75.0%
Exit Poll Cluster Effect: 30%
Exit Poll Data based on WPD
Kerry Electoral Vote
Mean: 338
Median: 336
Maximum: 364
Minimum: 302
Win Prob: 100%
Pre Exit Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Kerry Kerry Kerry -Exceed MoE- Vote Discrepancy
EV MoE MoE Pre Pre Exit Exit PreSim ExitSim Recorded Pre Exit Pre Exit Diff
Avg 3.92 3.17 47.69 47.02 51.81 47.19 50.77 51.85 48.28 19 23 (2.5) (3.6) (1.1)
AL 9 3.91 4.64 39 57 42.5 56.8 43.6 40.6 36.9 AL - (6.7)) (3.8) 2.9
AK 3 3.88 4.14 30 57 40.3 56.3 39.3 44.1 35.6 - p; AK (3.7) (8.5) (4.8)
AR 6 3.96 2.95 45 50 44.8 54.1 48.9 45.9 44.6 AR - (4.4)) (1.4) 3.0
AZ 10 3.96 3.40 46 48 46.7 52.6 51.1 45.3 44.4 AZ - (6.7)) (0.9) 5.7
CA 55 3.93 2.89 49 42 59.8 38.9 56.3 59.6 54.4 - CA (1.8) (5.1) (3.3)
CO 9 3.96 2.54 47 48 50.1 48.6 52.6 50.4 47.1 CO CO (5.5) (3.4) 2.2
CT 7 3.93 4.25 52 42 62.2 36.1 52.1 62.4 54.3 - CT 2.2 8.1) (10.3)
DE 3 3.91 4.53 45 38 61.3 37.8 60.2 61.9 53.4 DE DE (6.9) (8.5) (1.6)
DC 3 2.73 2.50 78 11 90.9 7.6 85.7 90.8 89.4 DC - 3.8 1.4) (5.1)
FL 27 3.96 2.39 50 47 50.9 48.3 51.7 51.6 47.1 FL FL (4.5) (4.5) 0.0
GA 15 3.95 3.22 42 52 42.5 56.9 45.0 43.3 41.4 - - (3.6)) (1.9) 1.8
HI 4 3.96 5.69 45 45 56.4 42.9 49.4 56.3 54.0 HI - 4.6 2.3) (6.9)
ID 4 3.85 5.08 30 59 30.8 67.9 36.2 28.7 30.3 ID - (6.0)) 1.6 7.5
IL 21 3.92 3.38 54 42 57.0 42.3 54.8 57.8 54.8 - - 0.0 (3.0) (3.0)
IN 11 3.90 4.12 39 58 40.0 59.2 39.1 41.1 39.3 - - 0.1 (1.8) (1.9)
IA 7 3.94 2.55 50 44 50.7 48.4 54.6 51.1 49.3 IA - (5.33) (1.8) 3.4
KS 6 3.87 4.74 37 60 37.5 61.2 36.2 38.6 36.6 - - p; 0.4 (2.0) (2.4)
KY 8 3.92 3.89 39 56 39.6 59.6 42.4 38.5 39.7 - - (2.77) 1.2 3.9
LA 9 3.96 3.10 40 48 44.1 54.8 47.8 42.9 42.3 LA - (5.55) (0.6) 4.9
ME 4 3.91 2.86 50 39 55.5 42.7 55.5 53.9 53.6 - - (1.99) (0.3) 1.6
MD 10 3.93 3.99 54 43 60.0 38.9 53.3 63.3 56.0 - p; MD 2.7 (7.3) (10.0)
MA 12 3.60 4.03 64 27 64.8 33.9 70.3 64.4 62.1 MA - p; (8.2) (2.3) 5.8
MI 17 3.95 2.57 52 45 54.4 44.7 54.6 53.3 51.2 - p; - (3.3) (2.1) 1.3
MN 10 3.94 2.72 52 44 55.7 43.0 48.7 55.2 51.2 - MN 2.5 (4.0) (6.6)
MS 6 3.95 4.47 42 51 45.8 53.4 47.0 47.1 40.2 MS MS (6.8) (6.9) (0.1)
MO 11 3.96 2.74 44 49 49.0 50.4 47.2 50.6 46.1 - p; MO (1.1) (4.5) (3.4)
MT 3 3.90 4.92 36 57 37.7 60.0 39.0 35.8 38.6 - - p; (0.4) 2.8 3.2
NE 5 3.83 4.38 32 61 36.7 61.8 39.3 35.6 32.7 NE - p; (6.5) (2.8) 3.7
NV 5 3.96 2.77 49 49 52.9 45.4 45.2 53.1 48.1 - NV 2.8 (5.0) (7.9)
NH 4 3.96 2.94 47 47 57.0 42.1 53.8 57.0 50.4 - NH (3.5) (6.7) (3.2)
NJ 15 3.93 3.24 50 42 57.8 41.4 56.1 56.6 52.9 - NJ (3.2) (3.7) (0.5)
NM 5 3.96 2.88 49 49 52.9 45.9 47.4 52.4 49.0 - NM 1.6 (3.3) (4.9)
NY 31 3.88 3.21 57 39 64.1 34.4 60.9 64.9 58.4 - NY (2.5) (6.5) (4.0)
NC 15 3.96 2.73 47 50 49.2 50.4 47.6 48.9 43.6 NC NC (4.0) (5.3) (1.4)
ND 3 3.92 4.72 35 55 32.9 65.5 41.0 36.3 35.5 ND - p; (5.5) (0.8) 4.7
OH 20 3.96 2.87 50 47 54.2 45.4 52.2 54.9 48.7 - OH (3.5) (6.2) (2.8)
OK 7 3.81 3.09 28 61 33.5 66.5 38.0 30.9 34.4 - OK (3.6) 3.5 7.1
OR 7 3.94 3.90 50 44 51.3 47.2 52.3 52.1 51.6 - - p; (0.7) (0.5) 0.2
PA 21 3.95 2.89 50 45 55.3 44.0 54.0 56.6 51.0 - PA (3.1) (5.6) (2.5)
RI 4 3.84 4.29 56 36 61.8 36.3 63.4 59.0 59.6 - - p; (3.8) 0.6 4.4
SC 8 3.93 3.05 42 55 45.9 53.0 41.0 44.9 41.0 - SC (0.0) (3.9) (3.9)
SD 3 3.95 3.19 42 52 36.3 62.0 43.3 34.6 38.4 SD SD (4.9) 3.8 8.7
TN 11 3.96 2.98 47 50 42.8 56.5 45.7 42.7 42.5 - - p; (3.2) (0.2) 3.0
TX 34 3.88 3.01 37 59 40.6 58.7 36.7 39.4 38.2 - p; - p; 1.5 (1.2) (2.7)
UT 5 3.60 4.13 24 69 29.2 68.3 31.9 30.1 26.0 UT - p; (5.8) (4.1) 1.7
VT 3 3.91 4.62 53 40 66.4 31.3 55.9 71.3 59.2 - VT 3.3 (12.1) (15.4)
VA 13 3.96 3.37 47 51 49.4 49.7 49.2 48.6 45.6 - - p; (3.7) (3.0) 0.6
WA 11 3.94 2.75 52 44 57.0 41.4 55.8 57.1 52.9 - WA (2.9) (4.3) (1.3)
WV 5 3.96 3.06 45 49 40.3 59.0 45.6 41.9 43.2 - - p; (2.4) 1.3 3.8
WI 10 3.94 2.70 51 44 52.0 47.0 51.8 50.7 49.8 - - p; (2.1) (1.0) 1.1
WY 3 3.74 4.55 29 65 31.2 66.7 33.0 32.8 29.1 WY - p; (3.9) (3.6) 0.3
Monte Carlo Polling Simulation
Edison-Mitofsky give 3 state exit poll estimates in the Jan '05 report. Bush's recorded vote share was 50.73-48.27%. He won 286 electoral votes.
WPD (Within Precinct Discrepancy): the difference between the average precinct exit poll margin and recorded vote margin – after removing 4 “outliers”.
The WPD estimate represents the “pristine” raw state exit poll results. E-M did not provide corresponding vote shares, but these are easily calculated.
Kerry’s weighted average national vote share was 51.81%. His electoral vote was 324.
BEST GEO: estimate made at close-of-poll, weighted by sample, but not by results or pre-election estimates.
Kerry’s vote share was 51.02%. His electoral vote was 301.
COMPOSITE (12:22am): the estimate after adjustment to pre-election estimates.
Kerry’s vote share was 50.28%. His electoral vote was 288.
Calculation of Ohio exit poll shares using WPD
The recorded (official) Ohio vote was:
B = 50.8%
K = 48.7%
BM = 2.1%
WPE= 10.9%
K = Kerry official state vote share
B = Bush official state vote share
WPE = Within Precinct Error
BM = Bush official margin
Determine:
KP = Kerry exit poll share
BP = Bush exit poll share
Calculations:
BP = B - 0.5* WPE
BP = 50.8% - 5.45% = 45.35%
KP = K + 0.5* WPE
KP = 48.7% + 5.45% = 54.15%
Confirm the Bush margin:
BEM = BP - KP = 45.35%- 54.15% = -8.8%
BEM = BM – WPE = 2.1% - 10.9% = -8.8%
The probability that the margin of error (MoE) would be exceeded in at least N states is calculated using the Excel binomial function:
Prob = 1- binomdist (n-1, 51, 0.025, true)
1) Given a 30% cluster effect, 24 states exceed the MoE for Bush.
The probability is virtually ZERO!
2) Given a 70% cluster effect, 16 states exceed the MoE.
The probability is 1 in 19 trillion!
3) Assuming zero cluster effect: 27 states exceed the MoE.
Cluster 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
States > MoE 27 25 24 24 22 20 17 16 15
Prob: zero zero zero zero zero 750tr 257tr 19tr 1tr
Scenario I
Cluster Effect: 30%
Kerry wins 335 Electoral votes
Forty-four states deviated to Bush from the exit polls, 24 beyond the MoE.
Of 16 battleground states, 15 deviated to Bush, 13 beyond the MoE.
Only 6 deep red states deviated to Kerry; none exceeded the MoE.
Kerry didn't expect to win any of them. Was this also just a coincidence?
* indicates battleground state
Kerry MoE Win Exit Poll Recorded Dev States Exceed
EV EV WPE Exit Prob Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Prob. Favor MoE
Total 335 7.1 51.8 47.2 48.3 50.7 44 24
AL 9 11.3 4.64% 0.1% 42.5 56.8 36.9 62.5 0.9% Bush yes
AK 3 9.6 4.14% 0.0% 40.3 56.3 35.6 61.2 1.3% Bush yes
AR 6 0.5 2.95% 0.0% 44.8 54.1 44.6 54.3 43.4% Bush
AZ 10 4.6 3.40% 2.8% 46.7 52.6 44.4 54.9 9.2% Bush
CA 55 55 10.9 2.89% 100% 59.8 38.9 54.4 44.5 0.0% Bush yes
CO* 9 6.1 2.54% 53% 50.1 48.6 47.1 51.8 1.0% Bush yes
CT 7 7 15.7 4.25% 100% 62.2 36.1 54.3 43.9 0.0% Bush yes
DE 3 3 15.9 4.53% 100% 61.3 37.8 53.4 45.8 0.0% Bush yes
DC 3 3 3.4 2.50% 100% 90.9 7.6 89.4 9.4 12.5% Bush
FL* 27 27 7.6 2.39% 77% 50.9 48.3 47.1 52.1 0.1% Bush yes
GA 15 2.2 3.22% 0.0% 42.5 56.9 41.4 58.0 25.4% Bush
HI 4 4 4.7 5.69% 99% 56.4 42.9 54.0 45.3 20.5% Bush
ID 4 1 5.08% 0.0% 30.8 67.9 30.3 68.4 41.8% Bush
IL 21 21 4.4 3.38% 100% 57.0 42.3 54.8 44.5 10.3% Bush
IN 11 1.5 4.12% 0.0% 40.0 59.2 39.3 59.9 36.3% Bush
IA* 7 5 2.55% 71% 50.7 48.4 49.3 50.0 13.8% Bush
KS 6 1.7 4.74% 0.0% 37.5 61.2 36.6 62.0 35.9% Bush
KY 8 -0.1 3.89% 0.0% 39.6 59.6 39.7 59.6 48.2% Kerry
LA 9 3.8 3.10% 0.0% 44.1 54.8 42.3 56.8 12.9% Bush
ME 4 4 3.8 2.86% 100% 55.5 42.7 53.6 44.6 9.3% Bush
MD 10 10 8.1 3.99% 100% 60.0 38.9 56.0 43.0 2.4% Bush yes
MA 12 12 5.8 4.03% 100% 64.8 33.9 62.1 36.9 9.4% Bush
MI* 17 17 6.3 2.57% 100% 54.4 44.7 51.2 47.8 0.8% Bush yes
MN* 10 10 9.3 2.72% 100% 55.7 43.0 51.2 47.7 0.1% Bush yes
MS 6 11.3 4.47% 3.3% 45.8 53.4 40.2 59.1 0.7% Bush yes
MO* 11 11 5.8 2.74% 24% 49.0 50.4 46.1 53.3 1.9% Bush yes
MT 3 -1.8 4.92% 0.0% 37.7 60.0 38.6 59.1 36.5% Kerry
NE 5 8.1 4.38% 0.0% 36.7 61.8 32.7 66.0 3.8% Bush
NV* 5 5 10.1 2.77% 98% 52.9 45.4 48.1 50.7 0.0% Bush yes
NH* 4 4 13.6 2.94% 100% 57.0 42.1 50.4 49.0 0.0% Bush yes
NJ 15 15 9.7 3.24% 100% 57.8 41.4 52.9 46.3 0.2% Bush yes
NM* 5 5 7.8 2.88% 98% 52.9 45.9 49.0 49.8 0.4% Bush yes
NY 31 31 11.4 3.21% 100% 64.1 34.4 58.4 40.1 0.0% Bush yes
NC* 15 15 11.3 2.73% 28% 49.2 50.4 43.6 56.0 0.0% Bush yes
ND 3 -5.2 4.72% 0.0% 32.9 65.5 35.5 62.9 14.0% Kerry
OH* 20 20 10.9 2.87% 99.8% 54.2 45.4 48.7 50.8 0.0% Bush yes
OK 7 -1.9 3.09% 0.0% 33.5 66.5 34.4 65.6 27.8% Kerry
OR* 7 7 0 3.90% 74% 51.3 47.2 51.6 47.4 44.0% Kerry
PA* 21 21 8.8 2.89% 100% 55.3 44.0 51.0 48.5 0.2% Bush yes
RI 4 4 4.7 4.29% 100% 61.8 36.3 59.6 38.8 15.5% Bush
SC 8 10 3.05% 0.4% 45.9 53.0 41.0 58.1 0.1% Bush yes
SD 3 -4.2 3.19% 0.0% 36.3 62.0 38.4 59.9 9.4% Kerry
TN 11 0.5 2.98% 0.0% 42.8 56.5 42.5 56.8 42.8% Bush
TX 34 4.8 3.01% 0.0% 40.6 58.7 38.2 61.1 6.1% Bush
UT 5 6.4 4.13% 0.0% 29.2 68.3 26.0 71.6 6.6% Bush
VT 3 3 15 4.62% 100% 66.4 31.3 59.2 39.0 0.1% Bush yes
VA* 13 7.9 3.37% 36% 49.4 49.7 45.6 53.8 1.3% Bush yes
WA* 11 11 8.4 2.75% 100% 57.0 41.4 52.9 45.7 0.2% Bush yes
WV 5 -5.8 3.06% 0.0% 40.3 59.0 43.2 56.1 3.1% Kerry
WI* 10 10 4.7 2.70% 93% 52.0 47.0 49.8 49.4 5.2% Bush
WY 3 4.3 4.55% 0.0% 31.2 66.7 29.1 69.0 18.6% Bush
Scenario II
Cluster Effect: 0%
Kerry wins 322 Electoral votes
Forty-four states deviate to Bush from the exit polls.
Twenty-seven exceed the MoE.
Kerry MoE Win Exit Poll Recorded Dev. States Exceed
EV EV WPE Exit Prob Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Prob. Favor MoE
Total 322 7.1 51.8 47.2 48.3 50.7 44 27
AL 9 11.3 3.57% 0.0% 42.5 56.8 36.9 62.5 0.1% Bush yes
AK 3 9.6 3.18% 0.0% 40.3 56.3 35.6 61.2 0.2% Bush yes
AR 6 0.5 2.27% 0.0% 44.8 54.1 44.6 54.3 41.4% Bush
AZ 10 4.6 2.61% 0.7% 46.7 52.6 44.4 54.9 4.2% Bush
CA 55 55 10.9 2.22% 100% 59.8 38.9 54.4 44.5 0.0% Bush yes
CO 9 6.1 1.95% 54% 50.1 48.6 47.1 51.8 0.1% Bush yes
CT 7 7 15.7 3.27% 100% 62.2 36.1 54.3 43.9 0.0% Bush yes
DE 3 3 15.9 3.48% 100% 61.3 37.8 53.4 45.8 0.0% Bush yes
DC 3 3 3.4 1.92% 100% 90.9 7.6 89.4 9.4 6.8% Bush
FL 27 27 7.6 1.84% 83% 50.9 48.3 47.1 52.1 0.0% Bush yes
GA 15 2.2 2.48% 0.0% 42.5 56.9 41.4 58.0 19.5% Bush
HI 4 4 4.7 4.38% 99.8% 56.4 42.9 54.0 45.3 14.2% Bush
ID 4 1 3.91% 0.0% 30.8 67.9 30.3 68.4 39.4% Bush
IL 21 21 4.4 2.60% 100% 57.0 42.3 54.8 44.5 5.0% Bush
IN 11 1.5 3.17% 0.0% 40.0 59.2 39.3 59.9 32.4% Bush
IA 7 7 5 1.96% 76% 50.7 48.4 49.3 50.0 7.9% Bush
KS 6 1.7 3.65% 0.0% 37.5 61.2 36.6 62.0 31.9% Bush
KY 8 -0.1 3.00% 0.0% 39.6 59.6 39.7 59.6 47.7% Kerry
LA 9 3.8 2.38% 0.0% 44.1 54.8 42.3 56.8 7.1% Bush
ME 4 4 3.8 2.20% 100% 55.5 42.7 53.6 44.6 4.3% Bush
MD 10 10 8.1 3.07% 100% 60.0 38.9 56.0 43.0 0.5% Bush yes
MA 12 12 5.8 3.10% 100% 64.8 33.9 62.1 36.9 4.3% Bush
MI 17 17 6.3 1.98% 100% 54.4 44.7 51.2 47.8 0.1% Bush yes
MN 10 10 9.3 2.09% 100% 55.7 43.0 51.2 47.7 0.0% Bush yes
MS 6 11.3 3.44% 0.8% 45.8 53.4 40.2 59.1 0.1% Bush yes
MO 11 5.8 2.11% 18% 49.0 50.4 46.1 53.3 0.3% Bush yes
MT 3 -1.8 3.78% 0.0% 37.7 60.0 38.6 59.1 32.7% Kerry
NE 5 8.1 3.37% 0.0% 36.7 61.8 32.7 66.0 1.0% Bush yes
NV 5 5 10.1 2.13% 99.6% 52.9 45.4 48.1 50.7 0.0% Bush yes
NH 4 4 13.6 2.27% 100% 57.0 42.1 50.4 49.0 0.0% Bush yes
NJ 15 15 9.7 2.49% 100% 57.8 41.4 52.9 46.3 0.0% Bush yes
NM 5 5 7.8 2.22% 99.5% 52.9 45.9 49.0 49.8 0.0% Bush yes
NY 31 31 11.4 2.47% 100% 64.1 34.4 58.4 40.1 0.0% Bush yes
NC 15 11.3 2.10% 23% 49.2 50.4 43.6 56.0 0.0% Bush yes
ND 3 -5.2 3.63% 0.0% 32.9 65.5 35.5 62.9 8.0% Kerry
OH 20 20 10.9 2.21% 100% 54.2 45.4 48.7 50.8 0.0% Bush yes
OK 7 -1.9 2.38% 0.0% 33.5 66.5 34.4 65.6 22.2% Kerry
OR 7 0 3.00% 80% 51.3 47.2 51.6 47.4 42.2% Kerry
PA 21 21 8.8 2.22% 100% 55.3 44.0 51.0 48.5 0.0% Bush yes
RI 4 4 4.7 3.30% 100% 61.8 36.3 59.6 38.8 9.3% Bush
SC 8 10 2.34% 0.0% 45.9 53.0 41.0 58.1 0.0% Bush yes
SD 3 -4.2 2.45% 0.0% 36.3 62.0 38.4 59.9 4.3% Kerry
TN 11 0.5 2.29% 0.0% 42.8 56.5 42.5 56.8 40.7% Bush
TX 34 4.8 2.31% 0.0% 40.6 58.7 38.2 61.1 2.2% Bush yes
UT 5 6.4 3.18% 0.0% 29.2 68.3 26.0 71.6 2.5% Bush
VT 3 3 15 3.56% 100% 66.4 31.3 59.2 39.0 0.0% Bush yes
VA 13 13 7.9 2.59% 33% 49.4 49.7 45.6 53.8 0.2% Bush yes
WA 11 11 8.4 2.12% 100% 57.0 41.4 52.9 45.7 0.0% Bush yes
WV 5 -5.8 2.35% 0.0% 40.3 59.0 43.2 56.1 0.8% Kerry
WI 10 10 4.7 2.08% 97% 52.0 47.0 49.8 49.4 1.7% Bush yes
WY 3 4.3 3.50% 0.0% 31.2 66.7 29.1 69.0 12.3% Bush
