Did Kerry Win More Than 360 Electoral Votes

Did Kerry Win More Than 360 Electoral Votes?

TruthIsAll

In 2004 Bush officially won by 286-251 electoral votes. But who really believes it? This analysis shows that Kerry may very well have won over 360 Electoral votes. The sensitivity analysis tables display Kerry's popular and electoral vote over a range of assumptions.

Key Results

Popular vote:

Kerry Bush

67.3m 57.5m

53.5% 45.7%

Electoral vote: Kerry 367, Bush 171

Kerry won the following 11 states which were recorded for Bush: AZ, AR, CO, FL, IA, MO, NV, NM, OH, TN, WV

Base Case Assumptions

1- 110.8m Census 2000 votes cast (105.4m recorded)

2- 125.7m Census 2004 votes cast (122.3m recorded)

3- Uncounted votes: Gore 70%; Bush 25%

4- 2000 voter mortality prior to 2004: 5% Gore; 4.8% Bush

5- 2000 voter turnout in 2004: 95% for Gore, Bush, Nader

6- Kerry won 71% of Nader 2000 voters (12:22am NEP)

7- Kerry won 57% of DNV2k (did not vote in 2000)

8- Kerry won 10% of Bush 2000 voters; Bush won 8% of Gore voters

9- Mortality and uncounted vote rates constant in all states

State Recorded Vote Adjustments

(in thousands of votes)

2000 Recorded Vote Uncounted 4 year Mortality Turnout in 2004

48.7% 48.2% 3.1% 70% 25% 5.0% 4.8% 95% 95%

Gore Bush Nader Gore Bush Gore Bush Gore Bush

State 51,004 50,459 3,275 3,745 1,338 2,737 2,486 49,411 46,845

AL 692 941 25 59 21 38 48 678 868

AK 79 167 33 10 4 4 9 80 154

AZ 685 781 56 54 19 37 40 667 722

AR 422 472 23 33 12 23 24 410 437

CA 5,861 4,567 459 389 139 313 235 5,641 4,247

CO 738 883 101 62 22 40 45 722 817

CT 816 561 68 52 18 43 29 783 523

DE 180 137 9 12 4 10 7 173 127

DC 171 18 11 7 3 9 1 161 19

FL 2,912 2,912 115 212 76 156 149 2,820 2,697

GA 1,116 1,419 11 91 33 60 73 1,089 1,310

HI 205 137 23 13 5 11 7 197 128

ID 138 336 8 17 6 8 17 140 309

IL 2,589 2,019 120 169 60 138 104 2,489 1,877

IN 901 1,245 17 77 28 49 64 883 1,149

IA 638 634 37 47 17 34 33 618 587

KS 399 622 43 38 14 22 32 394 574

KY 638 872 27 55 20 35 45 625 805

LA 792 927 36 63 22 43 47 771 857

ME 319 286 41 23 8 17 15 309 266

MD 1,144 813 58 72 26 61 42 1,097 757

MA 1,616 878 185 96 34 86 46 1,545 823

MI 2,170 1,953 84 150 54 116 100 2,094 1,811

MN 1,168 1,109 159 87 31 63 57 1,133 1,029

MS 404 572 10 35 13 22 29 396 528

MO 1,111 1,189 49 84 30 60 61 1,078 1,100

MT 137 240 30 15 5 8 12 137 221

NE 231 433 28 25 9 13 22 231 399

NV 279 301 20 21 8 15 15 271 279

NH 266 273 25 20 7 14 14 258 253

NJ 1,788 1,284 101 113 41 95 66 1,716 1,195

NM 287 286 22 21 8 15 15 278 265

NY 4,112 2,405 278 243 87 218 125 3,930 2,249

NC 1,257 1,631 9 104 37 68 83 1,228 1,505

ND 95 174 17 10 4 5 9 95 160

OH 2,186 2,351 144 167 60 118 121 2,124 2,176

OK 474 744 9 44 16 26 38 467 686

OR 720 713 17 52 19 39 37 697 660

PA 2,485 2,281 120 175 62 133 117 2,400 2,115

RI 249 130 27 15 5 13 7 238 122

SC 566 786 24 49 18 31 40 555 725

SD 118 190 3 11 4 6 10 117 175

TN 981 1,061 24 74 26 53 54 952 981

TX 2,433 3,799 150 228 82 133 194 2,402 3,502

UT 203 515 45 27 10 12 26 208 474

VT 149 119 23 10 4 8 6 144 111

VA 1,217 1,437 65 97 35 66 74 1,186 1,328

WA 1,247 1,108 108 88 31 67 57 1,205 1,028

WV 295 336 14 23 8 16 17 287 311

WI 1,242 1,237 105 92 33 67 63 1,204 1,146

WY 60 147 3 8 3 3 7 61 135

Nader Allocation Defection New Voters Adjusted True Vote Electoral

71% 21% 8% 10% 57% 41% Vote

Kerry Bush Gore Bush Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Kerry

State 2,301 681 3,953 4,684 14,883 10,705 67,327 57,499 53.54% 45.73% 367

AL 18 5 54 87 157 197 885 1,038 45.7% 53.6%

AK 23 7 6 15 20 33 133 185 41.5% 57.7%

AZ 40 12 53 72 321 297 1,047 1,012 50.4% 48.7% 10

AR 16 5 33 44 107 98 544 529 50.4% 49.0% 6

CA 326 96 451 425 1,628 712 7,568 5,082 59.4% 39.9% 55

CO 72 21 58 82 276 261 1,093 1,075 50.0% 49.2% 9

CT 48 14 63 52 187 57 1,008 604 62.1% 37.2% 7

DE 6 2 14 13 52 22 230 153 59.7% 39.6% 3

DC 8 2 6 1 245 10 408 36 91.5% 8.2% 3

FL 82 24 226 270 1,201 931 4,146 3,608 53.1% 46.2% 27

GA 8 2 87 131 440 515 1,581 1,784 46.6% 52.6%

HI 16 5 16 13 73 19 283 155 64.2% 35.1% 4

ID 6 2 11 31 45 109 210 400 34.2% 65.1%

IL 85 25 199 188 626 287 3,189 2,200 58.8% 40.6% 21

IN 12 4 71 115 206 268 1,145 1,376 45.1% 54.3%

IA 26 8 49 59 170 128 824 713 53.2% 46.1% 7

KS 31 9 32 57 85 120 536 677 43.9% 55.5%

KY 19 6 50 80 168 211 843 991 45.7% 53.7%

LA 26 8 62 86 160 160 981 1,000 49.2% 50.2%

ME 29 9 25 27 92 52 431 324 56.7% 42.6% 4

MD 41 12 88 76 388 138 1,514 919 61.8% 37.5% 10

MA 131 39 124 82 396 31 2,031 935 68.0% 31.3% 12

MI 60 18 168 181 585 372 2,753 2,188 55.4% 44.0% 17

MN 113 33 91 103 350 221 1,608 1,271 55.4% 43.8% 9

MS 7 2 32 53 98 131 523 640 44.7% 54.7%

MO 35 10 86 110 303 262 1,440 1,349 51.3% 48.1% 11

MT 21 6 11 22 30 44 199 261 43.0% 56.3%

NE 20 6 18 40 50 88 322 471 40.3% 59.0%

NV 14 4 22 28 147 126 439 402 51.7% 47.4% 5

NH 18 5 21 25 88 67 369 321 53.1% 46.2% 4

NJ 72 21 137 120 500 181 2,270 1,416 61.2% 38.2% 15

NM 16 5 22 27 119 88 417 354 53.6% 45.5% 5

NY 197 58 314 225 959 153 4,997 2,550 65.8% 33.6% 31

NC 6 2 98 151 377 456 1,663 1,911 46.2% 53.1%

ND 12 4 8 16 18 30 134 185 41.6% 57.7%

OH 102 30 170 218 705 603 2,979 2,761 51.5% 47.7% 20

OK 6 2 37 69 131 202 636 858 42.3% 57.0%

OR 12 4 56 66 277 215 996 869 53.0% 46.2% 7

PA 85 25 192 211 762 498 3,267 2,619 55.1% 44.2% 21

RI 19 6 19 12 58 3 308 137 68.7% 30.7% 4

SC 17 5 44 73 152 195 752 897 45.3% 54.0%

SD 2 1 9 18 39 62 166 230 41.7% 57.6%

TN 17 5 76 98 280 253 1,271 1,217 50.8% 48.6% 11

TX 107 32 192 350 616 908 3,282 4,283 43.1% 56.2%

UT 32 9 17 47 68 154 338 606 35.5% 63.7%

VT 16 5 12 11 29 12 189 128 59.2% 40.1% 3

VA 46 14 95 133 342 344 1,612 1,648 49.1% 50.2%

WA 77 23 96 103 368 215 1,656 1,260 56.4% 42.9% 11

WV 10 3 23 31 82 79 387 384 49.9% 49.5% 5

WI 75 22 96 115 351 257 1,648 1,407 53.6% 45.7% 10

WY 2 1 5 14 14 35 86 162 34.4% 64.9%

Sensitivity Analysis I

Given: Kerry won 57% of New Voters

Worst case scenario:

Gore won 65% of the uncounted votes in 2000

Kerry won 50% of Nader voters

Kerry wins 52.8% of the popular vote and 337 electoral votes

Best case scenario:

Gore won 80% of uncounted votes in 2000

Kerry won 80% of Nader voters

Kerry wins 54.1% of the popular vote and 389 electoral votes

Gore

Unctd Kerry % of Nader voters

Share 50% 60% 71% 80%

Kerry Vote Share

80% 53.3% 53.6% 53.9% 54.1%

75% 53.2% 53.4% 53.7% 53.9%

70% 53.0% 53.3% 53.5% 53.8%

65% 52.8% 53.1% 53.4% 53.6%

Kerry Electoral Vote

80% 358 367 367 389

75% 353 358 367 367

70% 343 353 367 367

65% 337 353 362 367

Sensitivity Analysis II

Given: Kerry won 71% of Nader Voters

Worst case scenario:

Gore won 65% of uncounted votes

Kerry won 52% of new voters (DNV2k)

Kerry wins 52.3% of the popular vote and 326 electoral votes

Best case scenario:

Gore won 80% of uncounted votes

Kerry won 61% of new voters

Kerry wins 54.7% of the popular vote and 389 electoral votes

Gore

Unctd Kerry % of New Voters

Share 52% 54% 57% 59% 61%

Kerry Vote Share

80% 52.8% 53.2% 53.9% 54.3% 54.7%

75% 52.7% 53.1% 53.7% 54.1% 54.5%

70% 52.5% 52.9% 53.5% 54.0% 54.4%

65% 52.3% 52.8% 53.4% 53.8% 54.2%

Kerry Electoral Vote

80% 343 367 367 389 389

75% 343 353 367 389 389

70% 337 353 367 367 389

65% 326 337 362 367 367

Sensitivity Analysis III

Worst case scenario:

Gore voter defection: 10%

Bush voter defection: 8%

Kerry wins 52.0% of the popular vote and 290 electoral votes

Best case scenario:

Gore voter defection: 6%

Bush voter defection: 12%

Kerry wins 55.1% of the popular vote and 389 electoral votes

Bush Gore Defection

Defect 10% 9% 8% 7% 6%

Kerry Vote Share

12% 53.5% 53.9% 54.3% 54.7% 55.1%

11% 53.1% 53.5% 53.9% 54.3% 54.7%

10% 52.8% 53.1% 53.5% 53.9% 54.3%

9% 52.4% 52.8% 53.2% 53.6% 54.0%

8% 52.0% 52.4% 52.8% 53.2% 53.6%

Kerry Electoral Vote

12% 367 389 389 389 389

11% 353 367 389 389 389

10% 326 353 367 389 389

9% 315 326 353 367 367

8% 290 315 326 353 367