Location-size/Regional analysis: Further confirmation of a Kerry landslide

Location-size/Regional analysis: Further confirmation of a Kerry landslide

TruthIsAll

The National Exit Poll regional weightings matched the aggregate state exit poll weightings. However, adjustments were made to the state vote shares: the "pristine" state average WPE (change in margin from exit poll to vote tally) morphed to the Composite (weighted average of Pre-election and Best Survey estimates) and then the Final (matched to the Recorded vote). Kerry's aggregate state exit poll share was 51.8% (325 electoral votes). The Margin of Error was exceeded in 29 of 50 states for Bush.

Science works by assuming that the explanation that best fits the data is correct - and is tested against new data, which either strengthens those assumptions or causes them to be rejected in favor of a better explanation.

This analysis analyzes the change in NEP "location-size" vote shares between the 2000 Final NEP, the 2004 preliminary 7:33pm (11027 respondents) and the Final NEP. Kerry led at 7:33pm by 50.5-47.6% (Table 4) but the Final (Table 2) was forced to match the recorded vote count by inflating Bush's vote shares. Urban and suburban locations were the prime targets. Bush vote shares were inflated in every demographic category.

Another objective was to determine a plausible combination of vote shares for each of the five location categories. The 7:33pm NEP "location-size" vote shares were adjusted (Table 5) to match the True Vote (Kerry 52.6/Bush 46.4%) which was calculated using feasible weights applied to the 12:22am NEP "Voted 2000" vote shares (Table 7). A sensitivity analysis table displays the effects of various Urban and Small Town/Rural vote share scenarios on Kerry's True Vote.

Exit Poll Kerry Vote

State Gender 51.8% (WPE-adjusted aggregate)

NEP Location 51.7% (WPE-adjusted state aggregate)

NEP Location 52.6% (matched to 12:22am NEP Voted 2000 w/feasible weights)

NEP Region 50.5% (7:33pm update)

NEP Region 48.2% (2pm Final- matched to recorded vote)

These are the relevant NEP statistics:

Final 2000 NEP (Table 1)

Gore urban margin: 7.8m

Bush suburban margin: 0.9m

Bush small town/rural margin: 6.4m

Final 2004 NEP (Table 2) Change from 2000

Kerry urban margin: 3.5m (-4.3m)

Bush suburban margin: 2.8m (+1.9m)

Bush small town/rural margin: 3.9m (-2.5m)

7:33pm 2004 NEP (Table 4)

Kerry urban margin: 5.9m (-1.9m)

Kerry suburban margin: 0.0m (+0.9m)

Bush small town/rural margin: 2.3m (-4.1m)

2004 True Vote (Table 5)

Kerry urban margin: 8.2m (+0.4m)

Kerry suburban margin: 1.7m (+2.6m)

Bush small town/rural margin: 2.1m (-4.3m)

Change in Final NEP Bush shares from 2000 to 2004:

1. 9% INCREASE in the URBAN vote (Democratic strongholds)

2. 3% INCREASE in the SUBURBAN vote (trending Democratic)

3. 3% DECREASE in the SMALL TOWN/RURAL vote (Republican strongholds)

The following graphs display the Bush vote shares by location size:

Vote share (5 categories)

Vote share (3 categories and national)

Vote count (in millions)

Vote change from 2000 (in millions)

Percentage vote change from 2000

____________________________________________________________________

Table 1

2000 Final NEP (matched to recorded vote)

Vote Share Votes (mil.)

Votes Mix Gore Bush Nader Gore Bush Other Margin

Big Cities 9.4 9% 71% 26% 3% 6.7 2.5 0.3 4.24

Small Cities 21.0 20% 57% 40% 3% 11.9 8.4 0.6 3.56

Suburbs 45.0 43% 47% 49% 4% 21.2 22.1 1.8 -0.90

Small Towns 5.2 5% 38% 59% 3% 2.0 3.1 0.2 -1.10

Rural Areas 24.1 23% 37% 59% 4% 8.9 14.2 1.0 -5.30

Total 104.8 100% 48.4% 47.9% 3.7% 50.7 50.2 3.8 0.50

Urban 30.4 29% 61% 36% 3% 18.6 10.8 0.9 7.81

Suburbs 45.0 43% 47% 49% 4% 21.2 22.1 1.8 -0.90

SmTwn/Rural 29.3 28% 37% 59% 4% 10.9 17.3 1.1 -6.40

Total 104.8 100% 48.4% 47.9% 3.7% 50.7 50.2 3.8 0.50

____________________________________________________________________

Table 2

2004 Final NEP (matched to recorded vote)

11/03 at 2:04pm

Vote Share Votes (mil.)

Votes Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other Margin

Big City 15.9 13% 61% 39% 0% 9.7 6.2 0.0 3.5

Small City 22.0 18% 49% 49% 2% 10.8 10.8 0.4 0.0

Suburbs 55.0 45% 47% 52% 1% 25.9 28.6 0.6 -2.8

Small Town 9.8 8% 48% 50% 2% 4.7 4.9 0.2 -0.2

Rural Areas 19.6 16% 40% 59% 1% 7.8 11.5 0.2 -3.7

Total 122.3 100% 48.1% 50.7% 1.1% 58.9 62.0 1.4 -3.2

Urban 37.9 31% 54% 45% 1.2% 20.5 17.0 0.4 3.5

Suburbs 55.0 45% 47% 52% 1.0% 25.9 28.6 0.6 -2.8

Rural 29.4 24% 43% 56% 1.3% 12.5 16.4 0.4 -3.9

Total 122.3 100% 48.1% 50.7% 1.1% 58.9 62.0 1.4 -3.2

____________________________________________________________________

Table 3

Final NEP Vote share changes: 2000 to 2004

Vote Share Votes (mil.)

Votes Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other Margin

Big City 6.5 4% -10% 13% -3% 3.0 3.7 -0.3 -0.7

Small City 1.1 -2% -8% 9% -1% -1.2 2.4 -0.2 -3.6

Suburbs 10.0 2% 0% 3% -3% 4.7 6.6 -1.3 -1.9

Small Town 4.5 3% 10% -9% -1% 2.7 1.8 0.0 0.9

Rural Areas -4.5 -7% 3% 0% -3% -1.1 -2.7 -0.8 1.6

Change 17.6 0% -5% 16% -11% 8.2 11.8 -2.5 -3.7

Urban 7.5 2% -7% 9% -2% 1.8 6.2 -0.5 -4.3

Suburbs 10.0 2% 0% 3% -3% 4.7 6.6 -1.3 -1.9

SmTwn/Rural 0.0 -4% 5% -3% -2% 1.6 -0.9 -0.7 2.5

Change 17.6 0% -2% 9% -7% 8.2 11.8 -2.5 -3.7

____________________________________________________________________

Table 4

2004 NEP (11027 respondents)

11/02 at 7:33pm

5 Categories

Vote Share Votes (mil.)

Votes Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other Margin

Big City 15.9 13% 64% 35% 1% 10.2 5.6 0.2 4.6

Small City 22.0 18% 52% 46% 2% 11.4 10.1 0.4 1.3

Suburbs 55.0 45% 49% 49% 2% 27.0 27.0 1.1 0.0

Small Town 9.8 8% 51% 47% 2% 5.0 4.6 0.2 0.4

Rural Areas 19.6 16% 42% 56% 2% 8.2 11.0 0.4 -2.7

Total 122.3 100% 50.5% 47.6% 1.9% 61.8 58.2 2.3 3.6

3 Categories

Votes Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other Margin

Urban 37.9 31% 57% 41% 2% 21.6 15.7 0.6 5.9

Suburb 55.0 45% 49% 49% 2% 27.0 27.0 1.1 0.0

Rural Areas 29.4 24% 45% 53% 2% 13.2 15.6 0.6 -2.3

Total 122.3 100% 50.5% 47.6% 1.9% 61.8 58.2 2.3 3.6

Sensitivity Analysis

Kerry Urban Share

Rural 54% 55% 56% 57% 58% 59% 60%

Share Kerry National Share

41% 48.6% 48.9% 49.3% 49.6% 49.9% 50.2% 50.5%

42% 48.9% 49.2% 49.5% 49.8% 50.1% 50.4% 50.7%

43% 49.1% 49.4% 49.7% 50.0% 50.4% 50.7% 51.0%

44% 49.4% 49.7% 50.0% 50.3% 50.6% 50.9% 51.2%

45% 49.6% 49.9% 50.2% 50.5% 50.8% 51.1% 51.5%

46% 49.8% 50.1% 50.5% 50.8% 51.1% 51.4% 51.7%

____________________________________________________________________

Table 5

2004 NEP (adjusted)

Size of Community

Vote shares adjusted to match True Vote (Table 7)

125.74m total votes cast (Census)

Vote Share Votes (mil.)

Votes Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other Margin

Big City 16.35 13% 67% 32% 1% 10.95 5.23 0.16 5.72

Small City 22.63 18% 55% 44% 1% 12.45 9.96 0.23 2.49

Suburbs 56.58 45% 51% 48% 1% 28.86 27.16 0.57 1.70

Small Town 10.06 8% 52% 47% 1% 5.23 4.73 0.10 0.50

Rural 20.12 16% 43% 56% 1% 8.65 11.27 0.20 -2.62

Total 125.74 100% 52.6% 46.4% 1% 66.14 58.34 1.26 7.80

Urban 38.98 31% 60% 39% 1% 23.40 15.19 0.39 8.21

Suburbs 56.58 45% 51% 48% 1% 28.86 27.16 0.57 1.70

SmTwn/Rural 30.18 24% 46% 53% 1% 13.88 16.00 0.30 -2.11

Total 125.74 100% 52.6% 46.4% 1.0% 66.14 58.34 1.26 7.80

Sensitivity Analysis

Kerry share of Urban

Share 56% 58% 60% 62% 64%

of Rural Kerry National Share

48% 51.8% 52.5% 53.1% 53.7% 54.3%

47% 51.6% 52.2% 52.8% 53.5% 54.1%

46% 51.4% 52.0% 52.6% 53.2% 53.8%

45% 51.1% 51.7% 52.4% 53.0% 53.6%

44% 50.9% 51.5% 52.1% 52.7% 53.4%

____________________________________________________________________

Table 6

Vote Share Summary

2000 Final 2004 7:33pm 2004 Final 2004 True

Gore Bush Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Kerry Bush

Urban 61% 36% 57% 41% 54% 45% 60% 39%

Suburbs 47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 52% 51% 48%

Rural 37% 59% 45% 53% 43% 56% 46% 53%

Total 48.4% 47.9% 50.5% 47.6% 48.1% 50.7% 52.6% 46.4%

____________________________________________________________________

Table 7

12:22am NEP True Vote

Voted 2000

Assumptions:

125.74m votes cast (2004 Census)

Election 2000 voters:

95% Turnout in 2004

0.87% annual mortality

Vote Share Votes (mil.)

Votes Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other

DNV 27.02 21.5% 57% 41% 2% 15.40 11.08 0.54

Gore 48.08 38.2% 91% 8% 1% 43.75 3.85 0.48

Bush 47.56 37.8% 10% 90% 0% 4.76 42.80 0.00

Other 3.08 2.5% 71% 21% 8% 2.19 0.65 0.25

Total 125.74 100% 52.6% 46.4% 1.01% 66.10 58.38 1.27

____________________________________________________________________

WPE (Within Precinct Error) by Size of Location

It was produced by pollsters Edison-Mitofsky in their Jan. 2005 report.

The largest discrepancies (WPE) were in the Suburbs (4.5m) and Cities (3.3m).

Deviations were calculated using

a) Final NEP (matched to the vote) and

b) Final NEP with WPE-adjusted location vote shares.

Location WPE

Size Mix Mean Median Abs Precincts

BigCity 13% -7.9 -5.9 12.1 105

Sm City 18% -8.5 -7.7 14.3 236

Suburb 45% -8.1 -7.9 14.3 487

Sm Town 8% -4.9 -5 12.8 126

Rural 16% -3.6 -3.6 13.4 296

Wtd Avg 100% -7.17 -6.68 13.75 1250

Final NEP: WPE-adjusted

(Census total votes cast)

Vote Share Votes (mil)

Location WPE Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other Margin

BigCity -7.9% 16.35 13% 65.0% 35.0% 0% 10.6 5.7 0.0 4.9

SmCity -8.5% 22.63 18% 53.3% 44.7% 2% 12.1 10.1 0.5 1.9

Suburbs -8.1% 56.58 45% 51.0% 48.0% 1% 28.9 27.1 0.6 1.8

SmlTwn -4.9% 10.06 8% 50.5% 47.5% 2% 5.1 4.8 0.2 0.3

Rural -3.6% 20.12 16% 41.8% 57.2% 1% 8.4 11.5 0.2 -3.1

Total -7.17% 125.74 100% 51.7% 47.2% 1.1% 65.0 59.3 1.4 5.8

National Exit Poll

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/WPEPollVsVote_21912_image001.png

12:22am Composite 2pm Final

Region Vote Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other

East 26.91 22% 58% 41% 1% 22% 56% 43% 1%

Midw 31.80 26% 50% 49% 1% 26% 48% 51% 1%

South 37.91 31% 44% 54% 2% 32% 42% 58% 0%

West 25.68 21% 53% 45% 2% 20% 50% 49% 1%

Vote share 100% 50.5% 48.0% 1.5% 100% 48.2% 51.1% 0.7%

Votes (mil) 122.3 61.8 58.6 1.9 122.3 59.0 62.5 0.8

Regional Aggregate Exit Poll Shares

(based on average state precinct WPE)

Region Vote Weight Kerry Bush Other

East 27.2 22.2% 60.3% 39.0% 0.7%

Midwest 30.9 25.3% 51.4% 47.8% 0.8%

South 39.3 32.2% 44.9% 54.4% 0.7%

West 24.8 20.3% 54.2% 44.4% 1.4%

Vote Share 100% 51.8% 47.3% 0.9%

Votes (mil) 122.3 63.3 57.8 1.2

____________________________________________________________________

Comparative Analysis:

1250 precincts categorized by Location-size; average WPE

2pm Final NEP

Location-size WPE-adjusted vote shares

Location Vote Mix WPE Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other Margin

Big City 15.9 13% 7.9 64.95% 35.05% 0% 10.3 5.6 0.0 4.6

Small City 22.0 18% 8.5 53.25% 44.75% 2% 11.7 9.9 0.4 1.9

Suburbs 55.0 45% 8.1 51.05% 47.95% 1% 28.1 26.4 0.6 1.7

Small Town 9.8 8% 4.9 50.45% 47.55% 2% 4.9 4.7 0.2 0.3

Rural 19.6 16% 3.6 41.80% 57.20% 1% 8.2 11.2 0.2 -3.0

TOTAL 122.3 100% 7.1 51.7% 47.2% 1.1% 63.3 57.7 1.4 5.6

____________________________________________________________________

Number of States where Exit Poll MoE was exceeded for Bush

(zero cluster effect)

Time Zone Region

East 14 of 21 East 8 of 12

Central 7 of 16 Midwest 6 of 12

Mountain 5 of 8 South 7 of 13

Pacific 3 of 5 West 8 of 13

EV Electoral vote

Vote Popular vote (in thousands)

KE Kerry Exit Poll Vote

KV Kerry Recorded Vote

KEP Kerry Exit Poll share

KVP Kerry Recorded share

WPE Within Precinct Error

KEV Kerry Electoral vote

Region EV Vote Mix WPE KE KV KEP KVP KEV

East 122 27,177 22.2% 9.21% 16,376 15,124 60.3% 55.7% 117

Midwest 124 30,940 25.3% 5.96% 15,889 14,966 51.4% 48.4% 85

South 168 39,324 32.2% 5.66% 17,662 16,550 44.9% 42.1% 27

West 124 24,844 20.3% 8.18% 13,461 12,445 54.2% 50.1% 96

Recorded 538 122,284 100% 7.04% 63,388 59,085 51.8% 48.3% 325

Total Cast 125,740 65,893

_____________________________________________________________________

State Exit Poll shares

(based on average WPE)

KEV Kerry Electoral vote (based on KE)

Vote Total state recorded vote

KE Kerry Exit Poll Share

KV Kerry Recorded Share

BE Bush Exit Poll Share

BV Bush Recorded Share

Diff = KE - KV

WPE = Within Precinct Error = (KE-KV)-(BE-BV)

MoE = State Exit Poll Margin of Error

DM = Diff/Moe

Probability of State Exit Poll Discrepancy

DM Prob

0.0 50%

0.5 14%

0.8 6%

1.0 2.50%

1.5 0.16%

1.7 0.03%

* Diff > 1.0* MoE (less than 2.50% probability)

** Diff > 1.5* MoE (less than 0.16% probability)

State KEV Vote WPE KE KV BE BV Diff MoE Diff/MoE

Total 325 122.3 7.09 51.81 48.27 47.19 50.73 2.92 2.71 1.08

EAST

CT** 7 1,578 15.7 62.2 54.3 36.1 43.9 7.85 3.27 2.40

DC 3 378 3.4 90.9 89.2 37.8 9.3 1.70 1.92 0.88

DE** 3 226 15.9 61.3 53.3 37.8 45.8 7.95 3.48 2.28

MA 12 2,912 5.8 64.8 61.9 33.9 36.8 2.90 3.10 0.93

MD* 10 2,386 8.1 60.0 55.9 38.9 42.9 4.05 3.07 1.32

ME 4 741 3.8 55.5 53.6 42.7 44.6 1.90 2.20 0.86

NH** 4 678 13.6 57.0 50.2 42.1 48.9 6.80 2.27 3.00

NJ** 15 3,611 9.7 57.8 52.9 41.4 46.2 4.85 2.49 1.94

NY** 31 7,391 11.4 64.1 58.4 34.4 40.1 5.70 2.47 2.31

PA** 21 5,770 8.8 55.3 50.9 44.0 48.4 4.40 2.22 1.98

RI 4 437 4.7 61.8 59.4 36.3 38.7 2.35 3.30 0.71

VT** 3 312 15.0 66.4 58.9 31.3 38.8 7.50 3.56 2.11

WV* 756 (5.8) 40.3 43.2 59.0 56.1 -2.90 2.35 -1.23

MIDWEST

IA 7 1,507 3.0 50.7 49.2 48.4 49.9 1.50 1.96 0.77

IL 21 5,276 4.4 57.0 54.8 42.3 44.5 2.20 2.60 0.85

IN 2,468 1.5 40.0 39.3 59.2 59.9 0.75 3.17 0.24

KS 1,187 1.7 37.5 36.6 61.2 62.0 0.85 3.65 0.23

MI** 17 4,839 6.3 54.4 51.2 44.7 47.8 3.15 1.98 1.59

MN** 10 2,829 9.3 55.7 51.1 43.0 47.6 4.65 2.09 2.22

MO* 2,731 5.8 49.0 46.1 50.4 53.3 2.90 2.11 1.38

ND 313 (5.2) 32.9 35.5 65.5 62.9 -2.60 3.63 -0.72

NE* 778 8.1 36.7 32.7 61.8 65.9 4.05 3.37 1.20

OH** 20 5,626 10.9 54.2 48.7 45.4 50.8 5.45 2.21 2.47

SD 388 (4.2) 36.3 38.4 62.0 59.9 -2.10 2.45 -0.86

WI* 10 2,997 4.7 52.0 49.7 47.0 49.3 2.35 2.08 1.13

SOUTH

AL** 1,883 11.3 42.5 36.8 56.8 62.5 5.65 3.57 1.58

AR 2,021 0.5 44.8 44.5 54.1 54.3 0.25 2.61 0.10

FL** 27 7,610 7.6 50.9 47.1 48.3 52.1 3.80 1.84 2.07

GA 3,301 2.2 42.5 41.4 56.9 58.0 1.10 2.48 0.44

KY 1,796 (0.1) 39.6 39.7 59.6 59.6 -0.05 3.00 -0.02

LA 1,943 3.8 44.1 42.2 54.8 56.7 1.90 2.38 0.80

MS** 1,139 11.3 45.8 40.2 53.4 59.0 5.65 3.44 1.64

NC** 3,501 11.3 49.2 43.6 50.4 56.0 5.65 2.10 2.69

OK 1,464 (1.9) 33.5 34.4 66.5 65.6 -0.95 2.38 -0.40

SC** 1,618 10.0 45.9 40.9 53.0 58.0 5.00 2.34 2.13

TN 2,437 0.5 42.8 42.5 56.5 56.8 0.25 2.29 0.11

TX* 7,411 4.8 40.6 38.2 58.7 61.1 2.40 2.31 1.04

VA** 3,199 7.9 49.4 45.5 49.7 53.7 3.95 2.59 1.53

WEST

AK** 313 9.6 40.3 35.5 56.3 61.1 4.80 3.18 1.51

AZ* 1,051 4.6 46.7 44.4 52.6 54.9 2.30 2.27 1.01

CA** 55 12,420 10.9 59.8 54.3 38.9 44.4 5.45 2.22 2.45

CO** 9 2,130 6.1 50.1 47.0 48.6 51.7 3.05 1.95 1.56

HI 4 429 4.7 56.4 54.0 42.9 45.3 2.35 4.38 0.54

ID 598 1.0 30.8 30.3 67.9 68.4 0.50 3.91 0.13

MT 451 (1.8) 37.7 38.6 60.0 59.1 -0.90 3.78 -0.24

NM** 5 756 7.8 52.9 49.0 45.9 49.8 3.90 2.22 1.76

NV** 5 830 10.1 52.9 47.9 45.4 50.5 5.05 2.13 2.37

OR 7 1,837 0.0 51.3 51.3 47.2 47.2 0.00 3.00 0.00

UT* 928 6.4 29.2 26.0 68.3 71.5 3.20 3.18 1.01

WA** 11 2,859 8.4 57.0 52.8 41.4 45.6 4.20 2.12 1.98

WY 243 4.3 31.2 29.1 66.7 68.9 2.15 3.50 0.61