New
York:
Further Confirmation of a Kerry Landslide
TruthIsAll
Why would BushCo
steal votes in NY? Kerry won the recorded vote by a whopping 18%. The simple
answer: to pad his popular vote “mandate”. This analysis shows that
Kerry did much better in NY than the recorded vote indicates.
Naysayers cherry-picked
the final NY pre-election poll in an attempt to promote the myth that the
pre-election polls was correct and the exits poll was way off. In essence, they
are claiming that the final pre-election poll matched a fraud-free recorded
vote. But they can’t provide evidence that ALL the votes were counted
accurately in ALL the precincts. Historical evidence indicates that Lever
machines are vulnerable to rigging. They fail to consider absentee and
provisional ballots. Dan Rather's
voting machine expose was a clear
example of how mechanical voting machines can be rigged. In Florida 2000, poor-quality
paper used in punch card machines was a major cause of election fraud in
heavily Democratic precincts. The report illustrated
a method used to hack mechanical voting machines (punch card or lever). There
are fundamental flaws in their argument.
1- They failed to consider
the NY 2000 vote: Gore 60.2 - Bush 35.2 - Nader 3.6. Their argument implies that the 2004
recorded vote was fraud-free and that 100% of returning Nader
2000 voters defected to Bush - clearly an impossible scenario.
In fact, according to the 12:22am NEP, Kerry won Nader voters by
71-21% and 10% of Bush voters defected to Kerry while just 8% of Gore voters
defected to Bush. Adjusting the NEP weights based on the NY 2000 recorded vote
and assuming 12:22am
NEP vote shares, Kerry won by 63.6-35.1%.
2- They ignored the theoretical margin of error.
It’s well-known that exit polls are more accurate than pre-election polls.
There was a 5.1% discrepancy between Kerry's NY pre-election (59%) and exit
poll (64.1%). Since the MoE is 4% for a typical
600-sample pre-election state poll, there was a 95% probability that Kerry's
True vote was in the 55-63% range. The NY exit poll 3.2% MoE
(30% cluster effect) implies there was a 95% chance that Kerry's True vote was
in the 60.8-67.2% range which would fall within the MoE
of both the NY pre-election and exit poll. On the
other hand, the weighted average of 51 state pre-election polls
(adjusted for undecided voters) matched
the National Exit Poll to within 1%. Once again, it’s the Law of Large Numbers
taking effect.
3- They failed to consider
that Kerry’s vote share was 10% higher in NY than nationally. The Election
Calculator, which accounts for voter mortality, turnout and uncounted votes,
determined that Kerry won by 64.0-34.5%. The
assumptions were as follows: Gore and Kerry won 75% of the uncounted votes (5%
of total cast); Kerry won 94% of Gore voters, 12% of Bush voters, 61% of new
(DNV2k) voters and 68% of returning Nader/other
voters. A sensitivity analysis shows that if Kerry won 90-98% of returning Gore
voters and 57-65% of DNV2k, his NY vote share ranged from 61.3 to 66.7%.
4- They implied there was
zero fraud in claiming that the recorded vote was the true vote. An analysis of the effects of uncounted and switched
votes indicates that Kerry won by 63-36%. If 2% of total votes cast were
uncounted (75% to Kerry), then 7% of Kerry votes were switched to Bush. The
uncounted vote assumption is lower than the 2.74% national average (NY uses
lever voting machines).
NY 2004
Kerry Bush Other Total
4.314 2.963 . 114
7.391
58.5% 40.2% 1.3% 100%
NY 2000
Gore
Bush Nader Other Total
4.108 2.403 .244 0.67 6.822
60.2% 35.2%
3.6% 1.0% 100%
NY True Vote:
Assumptions:
95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004
1.22% annual voter mortality
No uncounted votes
Kerry vote shares reflect higher NY shares compared to NEP shares
Turnout Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other NEP
DNV 1.236 16.7% 61% 37% 2% 57-41%
Gore 95% 3.718 50.4% 94% 5% 1% 91-8%
Bush 95% 2.172 29.4% 12% 88% 0% 10-90%
Nader 95% 0.250 3.4% 68% 13% 19% 64-17%
Total 6.140 7.376 100% 63.45% 35.07% 1.48%
7.376 4.680 2.587 0.109
Notes:
1. Kerry won three NY exit poll measures by an average
64.1%. His recorded share was 58.5%.
2. Mechanical voting machine precincts had the highest average
WPE (10.6%). New York
votes 99% by Lever.
3. According to the National Exit Poll, Kerry won 57% of new
voters; 91% of Gore; 64% of Nader; 10% of Bush.
4. Kerry’s NY vote share was
10% higher than his national share. Therefore, his NY shares must have exceeded
the national shares (note 3).
5. Kerry won 66% of the final 500k votes but only 58% of
the initial 6.8m; Gore won 74% of the final 500k and 60% of the initial 6.3m.
6. Kerry won approximately 75%
of the uncounted votes (included in the exit poll but not the official count).
7. Kerry had his highest NY shares in the four counties
which had the highest rates of voting incidents.
8. Bush gained a total of 573k votes in NY (25.8%) from
2000; Kerry gained just 246k (6.6%); Nader lost 196k.
9. Kerry won returning Nader
voters by a 47% margin over Bush; he won new voters by 16%. Bush 2000 voters defected
to Kerry at a 2% higher rate than Gore voters to Bush. If we conservatively
assume that Kerry’s share of New and former NY Gore voters was just 1% higher
than his National share, then Bush needed 100% of former Bush voters to match
the official count! The net defection rate would have had to flip from
Kerry (+2%) to Bush (+7%). So how did Bush improve his NY vote share by over
5%? Do you believe in magic?
10. This is the essence of the Urban Legend:
Bush made big gains in heavily Democratic urban/suburban strongholds yet did
not do well in small towns and rural areas, his own strongholds. Seven
strongly Democratic NYC area counties comprised 50% of the total recorded vote;
Kerry had 66% in the seven counties, but Bush gained 311k (41.3%) from 2000; Kerry improved by just 129k (5.4%)
over Gore; Nader lost 89k. In other counties, Bush
had 48% and gained 262k votes (7.6%) while Kerry gained 118k (3.4%).
This graph illustrates the Bush Urban Legend: the implausible change in votes from 2000 to 2004 for the largest 15 NY counties.
11. Since Kerry won 64% (57k) and Bush 17% (15k) of
returning Nader voters, Kerry would have a 72/27%
margin in the seven counties assuming an equal defection of Bush and Gore
voters. But according to the National Exit Poll, 10% of Bush voters
defected and 8% of Gore voters defected. Assuming a net 2%
defection to Kerry, he would have had a 73/26% margin in the seven counties. So
how could the Bush vote share increase by 6.4% (26.5 to 32.9%) and the Kerry
share decline by 3.6% (69.6 to 66.0%)? That’s a 10% increase in Bush margin!
________________________________________________________________________
NY Pre-election and Exit
Polls
New York
Kerry Bush Nader
Recorded
vote
58.5% 40.2% 1.3%
Final
pre-election poll 57
39 1
Projection
59 40 1
Edison-Mitofsky
Exit Poll Measures
WPE
(11.4)
64.1% 34.4% 1.5%
Best
Estimate
65.1 33.8 1.1
Composite
63.1 35.5 1.4
Implausible Kerry/Bush vote shares required
to match the NY 2004 recorded vote
This analysis will show that the 2004 New York and Connecticut recorded votes were far from the True
vote.
Only New York and Connecticut used lever machines exclusively in 2004.
Lever machine advocates need to appreciate the overwhelming statistical
evidence of a rigged vote count.
The analysis should be critiqued from a purely mathematical standpoint.
Key NY
facts:
1) In 2000, 6.82m votes were recorded in NY.
2) Recorded vote shares: Gore 60.2%, Bush 35.2%, Nader/other
4.6%
3) Of the 6.82m, approximately 5% died and 95% voted in 2004.
4) Approximately 6.16m Election 2000 voters returned to vote in 2004.
5) In 2004, a total of 7.39m votes were recorded.
6) Recorded vote shares: Kerry 58.5%, Bush 40.2%, Nader/other
1.3%
7) Approximately 1.23m voters were newly registered or did not vote in
2000.
8) In 2004, the vast majority of newly registered voters were
Democrats.
9) Kerry’s recorded NY vote share (58.5%) far exceeded his national
share (48.4%).
10) Kerry won a solid majority of new voters and returning Nader/other voters.
11) Kerry won 65.8% of 500,000 late votes (absentee, provisional, etc.)
Based on an analysis of the above, one must conclude that Bush’s recorded
NY vote share was virtually impossible.
In spite of facts 8-11, Bush’s vote gains in the 15 largest NY counties
exceeded those of Kerry.
Scenarios I, II and IV (below) indicate that implausible vote shares
are required to match the recorded NY vote.
On the contrary, Scenario III shows that plausible vote shares cause a
match to the three NY exit poll measures:
Unadjusted WPE (64.1%), Best GEO (65.1%) and the 12:40am Composite
(63.1%)
NY
Pre-election Kerry
Bush Nader
Poll
57 39 1
Projection
59 40 1
Recorded
vote
58.5% 40.2% 1.3%
NY
Exit Poll Timeline
WPE
(11.4)
64.1% 34.4% 1.5%
GEO
Best Estimate
65.1 33.8 1.1
Composite (12:40am)
63.1 35.5 1.4
Final
58.4 40.1 1.5
National Vote share based on 51 State Exit Polls (WPE)
Method Kerry Avg WPE Wtd Avg
Description
VNS 51.81%
5.95% 7.09% VNS: 4 outliers removed
from average
DSS 52.15%
6.73% 7.77% Decision Summary Screen:
4 outliers removed
IMS 51.91%
6.29% 7.37% Input Mgt Screen: no
outliers removed
2004 New York Election
Calculator
Scenario I:
Implausible Shares of New (DNV) voters
required to match the NY recorded vote
To match the NY recorded vote.
Bush needed 689,000 (56%) of new voters compared to 516,000 (42%) for Kerry.
This is implausible because:
a) Kerry won new voters
nationally with 57-62% (see the National Exit Poll timeline).
b) Kerry's recorded 58.5% vote
share in NY exceeded his 48.4% national share.
c) Kerry’s 64% NY Exit Poll
exceeded his 52% aggregate state exit poll.
Conclusion: it is reasonable to
assume that Kerry won new voters in NY by 66-33%.
Bush’s 40.2% recorded NY vote
share is virtually impossible (see below).
|
2000
|
|
|
|
2004
|
|
|
Required
|
Vote
|
Shares
|
|
|
Recorded
|
Died
|
Alive
|
Voted
|
Voted
|
Mix
|
Kerry
|
Bush
|
Other
|
|
DNV
adj)
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
1.23
|
16.7%
|
42%
|
56%
|
2%
|
|
Gore
|
4.11
|
0.20
|
3.91
|
95%
|
3.71
|
50.2%
|
91%
|
8%
|
1%
|
|
Bush
|
2.40
|
0.12
|
2.29
|
95%
|
2.17
|
29.3%
|
10%
|
90%
|
0%
|
|
Nader/other
|
0.31
|
0.01
|
0.30
|
95%
|
0.28
|
3.8%
|
71%
|
21%
|
8%
|
|
Total
|
6.82
|
0.33
|
6.49
|
6.16
|
7.39
|
100%
|
58.3%
|
40.6%
|
1.1%
|
|
Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
7.39
|
4.31
|
3.00
|
0.08
|
Scenario II:
Implausible Shares of Gore, Bush and New
(DNV) voters required to match the NY recorded vote
Kerry’s Final NEP national vote
shares had to be reduced in NY in order to match the recorded vote.
That is illogical: Kerry's recorded 58.5% NY vote share far
exceeded his 48.4% national share.
Kerry’s NY vote shares were
obviously higher than the corresponding National Exit Poll shares.
Conclusion: Bush’s 40.2% recorded
NY vote share is virtually impossible (see below).
|
2000
|
|
|
|
2004
|
|
|
Required
|
Vote
|
Shares
|
|
|
Recorded
|
Died
|
Alive
|
Voted
|
Voted
|
Mix
|
Kerry
|
Bush
|
Other
|
|
DNV
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
1.23
|
16.7%
|
53%
|
45%
|
2%
|
|
Gore
|
4.11
|
0.20
|
3.91
|
95%
|
3.71
|
50.2%
|
89%
|
10%
|
1%
|
|
Bush
|
2.40
|
0.12
|
2.29
|
95%
|
2.17
|
29.3%
|
8%
|
92%
|
0%
|
|
Nader/other
|
0.31
|
0.01
|
0.30
|
95%
|
0.28
|
3.8%
|
71%
|
21%
|
8%
|
|
Total
|
6.82
|
0.33
|
6.49
|
6.16
|
7.39
|
100%
|
58.6%
|
40.3%
|
1.1%
|
|
Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
7.39
|
4.33
|
2.98
|
0.08
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Scenario III:
Plausible Shares of Gore, Bush and New
(DNV) voters required to match the NY exit poll
Kerry’s Final NEP vote shares had
to be increased to match the NY exit poll (see below).
This is logical and expected: Kerry's
recorded 58.5% NY vote share far exceeded his 48.3% national share.
Therefore, Kerry’s NY vote shares
were obviously higher than the corresponding NEP shares.
Conclusion: Kerry’s recorded
1.35m vote margin (Kerry 58.5-Bush 40.2%) was 750,000 too low.
Kerry won by 64-35%
(approximate), a 2.1 million vote margin.
|
2000
|
|
|
|
2004
|
|
|
Required
|
Vote
|
Shares
|
|
|
Recorded
|
Died
|
Alive
|
Voted
|
Voted
|
Mix
|
Kerry
|
Bush
|
Other
|
|
DNV
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
1.23
|
16.7%
|
66%
|
32%
|
2%
|
|
Gore
|
4.11
|
0.20
|
3.91
|
95%
|
3.71
|
50.2%
|
93%
|
6%
|
1%
|
|
Bush
|
2.40
|
0.12
|
2.29
|
95%
|
2.17
|
29.3%
|
12%
|
88%
|
0%
|
|
Nader/other
|
0.31
|
0.01
|
0.30
|
95%
|
0.28
|
3.8%
|
75%
|
17%
|
8%
|
|
Total
|
6.82
|
0.33
|
6.49
|
6.16
|
7.39
|
100%
|
64.1%
|
34.8%
|
1.1%
|
|
Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
7.39
|
4.73
|
2.57
|
0.08
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Scenario IV:
Impossible Shares of new (DNV) voters required
to match the NY recorded vote
This scenario assumes Scenario
III vote shares.
The goal: determine the required Bush share of new
voters in order to match the recorded vote.
Bush needed 66% of new voters.
This is not implausible; it is
impossible.
Plausible Scenario III indicates
he had 32%.
Conclusion: Kerry’s recorded
1.35m vote margin (Kerry 58.5-Bush 40.2%) was 750,000 too low.
Kerry won by 64-35%
(approximate), a 2.1 million vote margin.
|
2000
|
|
|
|
2004
|
|
|
Required
|
Vote
|
Shares
|
|
|
Recorded
|
Died
|
Alive
|
Voted
|
Voted
|
Mix
|
Kerry
|
Bush
|
Other
|
|
DNV
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
1.23
|
16.7%
|
32%
|
66%
|
2%
|
|
Gore
|
4.11
|
0.20
|
3.91
|
95%
|
3.71
|
50.2%
|
93%
|
6%
|
1%
|
|
Bush
|
2.40
|
0.12
|
2.29
|
95%
|
2.17
|
29.3%
|
12%
|
88%
|
0%
|
|
Nader/other
|
0.31
|
0.01
|
0.30
|
95%
|
0.28
|
3.8%
|
75%
|
17%
|
8%
|
|
Total
|
6.82
|
0.33
|
6.49
|
6.16
|
7.39
|
100%
|
58.4%
|
40.5%
|
1.1%
|
|
Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
7.39
|
4.31
|
2.99
|
0.08
|
Sensitivity Analysis
25 scenario combinations of Kerry New and Gore 2000 voter share
Note the scenario
which matches the recorded vote share (58.4-40.2%):
Bush needed 50% of
new voters and 13% of Kerry voters.
But in the Final NEP,
Bush had 45% of new voters and 10% of Kerry voters.
How could he have
done 3-5% better in NY than he did nationally?
His national share
was 10% higher than his NY share.
Conclusion:
He could not have won
40.2% of the New
York vote.
Share
of Gore Share of New voters (DNV)
Voters 50% 54% 58% 62% 66%
Kerry NY Vote Share
95%
62.4 63.0 63.7 64.4 65.1
93%
61.4 62.0 62.7 63.4 64.0
91%
60.4 61.0 61.7 62.4 63.0
89%
59.4 60.0 60.7 61.4 62.0
87%
58.4 59.0 59.7 60.4 61.0
Kerry Margin
95%
1.91 2.01 2.11 2.21 2.31
93%
1.77 1.86 1.96 2.06 2.16
91%
1.62 1.72 1.82 1.91 2.01
89%
1.47 1.57 1.67 1.77 1.86
87%
1.32 1.42 1.52 1.62 1.72
Connecticut
2000 recorded
Gore Bush Other Total
0.816 0.561 0.082 1.460
55.91% 38.44% 5.65%
2004 recorded
Kerry Bush Other Total
0.857 0.694 0.027 1.579
54.31% 43.95% 1.74%
2004 Exit Poll
62.2% 36.1% 1.7%
Kerry’s recorded margin was 160,000 votes.
The following scenarios indicate that his True margin was
400,000 votes.
Scenario I:
Implausible Shares of Gore, Bush and New
(DNV) voters required to match the recorded vote
Kerry’s Final NEP vote shares had
to be decreased to match the CT recorded vote.
This is logical and expected: Kerry's
recorded 54.3% CT vote share far exceeded his 48.3% national share.
Therefore, Kerry’s CT vote shares
were obviously higher than the corresponding NEP shares.
|
2000
|
|
|
|
2004
|
|
|
Required
|
Vote
|
Shares
|
|
|
Recorded
|
Died
|
Alive
|
Voted
|
Voted
|
Mix
|
Kerry
|
Bush
|
Other
|
|
DNV
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
0.26
|
16.6%
|
52%
|
46%
|
2%
|
|
Gore
|
0.82
|
0.04
|
0.78
|
95%
|
0.73
|
46.5%
|
86%
|
14%
|
1%
|
|
Bush
|
0.56
|
0.03
|
0.51
|
95%
|
0.51
|
32.3%
|
8%
|
92%
|
0%
|
|
Nader/other
|
0.08
|
0.00
|
0.08
|
95%
|
0.07
|
4.7%
|
65%
|
27%
|
8%
|
|
Total
|
1.46
|
0.07
|
1.39
|
1.32
|
1.58
|
100%
|
54.2%
|
44.6%
|
1.2%
|
|
Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.58
|
0.86
|
0.70
|
0.02
|
Scenario
II:
Plausible Shares of Gore, Bush and New
(DNV) voters required to match the exit poll
Conclusion: Kerry’s recorded 160k
margin (Kerry 54.3-Bush 44.0%) was too low.
Kerry won by approximately
62-37%, a 400k vote margin.
|
2000
|
|
|
|
2004
|
|
|
Required
|
Vote
|
Shares
|
|
|
Recorded
|
Died
|
Alive
|
Voted
|
Voted
|
Mix
|
Kerry
|
Bush
|
Other
|
|
DNV
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
0.26
|
16.6%
|
66%
|
32%
|
2%
|
|
Gore
|
0.82
|
0.04
|
0.78
|
95%
|
0.73
|
46.5%
|
94%
|
5%
|
1%
|
|
Bush
|
0.56
|
0.03
|
0.51
|
95%
|
0.51
|
32.3%
|
12%
|
88%
|
0%
|
|
Nader/other
|
0.08
|
0.00
|
0.08
|
95%
|
0.07
|
4.7%
|
75%
|
17%
|
8%
|
|
Total
|
1.46
|
0.07
|
1.39
|
1.32
|
1.58
|
100%
|
62.0%
|
36.8%
|
1.2%
|
|
Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.58
|
0.98
|
0.58
|
0.02
|
2004 National Exit Poll
Timeline
Voted 2000 Demographic
In order for Final National Exit poll to match the
recorded vote, all category
weightings and/or vote shares were adjusted.
Bush had 50.45m votes in 2000 (41.3% of the 122.3m votes
recorded in 2004).
Approximately 5% of Election 2000 voters died; and 5% did
not vote in 2004.
Therefore, only 45.5m (37.2%) Bush voters returned to
vote in 2004.
Conclusion: The Bush weightings (41-43%) are
mathematically impossible throughout the timeline.
NEP Update 3:59pm 7:33pm 12:22am Final Weight 3:59pm 7:33pm 12:22am Final Share
Respondents 8349 11027 13047 13660 Change 8349 11027 13047 13660 Change
VOTED 2000 Percentage Weighting Voted for Kerry
Did Not Vote 15 17 17 17 62 59 57 54 -3
Gore 39 38 39 37 -2 91 91 91 90 -1
Bush 42 41 41 43 +2 9 9 10 9 -1
Nader/Other 4 4 3 3 61 65 71 71
Vote share 100 100 100 100 51.01 50.90 51.41 48.48
Vote (mil) 62.36 62.23 62.85 59.27
Average Voting Machine WPE
for all Exit Poll Precincts
Mechanical (Lever) voting machine precincts had the
highest mean Within Precinct Error (-10.6%).
Paper ballot precincts had the smallest mean WPE (-2.2%)
New York
votes 99% by Lever.
|
Polling
|
Place
|
WPE
mean
|
WPE median
|
|
Number precincts
|
|
Paper
|
Ballot
|
-2.2
|
-0.9
|
|
40
|
|
Mechanical
|
Voting
|
-10.6
|
-10.3
|
|
118
|
|
Touch
|
Screen
|
-7.1
|
-7
|
|
360
|
|
Punch
|
Cards
|
-6.6
|
-7.3
|
|
158
|
|
Optical
|
Scan
|
-6.1
|
-5.5
|
|
573
|
NY 2004 Election Calculator
Plausible Scenario Assumptions:
95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004
1.22% annual voter mortality
No uncounted votes
Scenario 1:
(12:22am National Exit Poll vote shares)
1.22% annual voter mortality
Turnout Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV 0% 1.236 16.7% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 95% 3.718 50.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 95% 2.172 29.4% 10% 90% 0%
Nader 95% 0.250 3.4% 64% 17% 19%
Total 6.140 7.376 100% 60.54% 37.98% 1.48%
7.376 4.465 2.801 0.109
Scenario 2:
(Kerry vote shares increased for NY)
Turnout Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV 1.236 16.7% 61% 37% 2%
Gore 95% 3.718 50.4% 94% 5% 1%
Bush 95% 2.172 29.4% 12% 88% 0%
Nader 95% 0.250 3.4% 68% 13% 19%
Total 6.140 7.376 100% 63.45% 35.07% 1.48%
7.376 4.680 2.587 0.109
Scenario 3 (most likely):
Uncounted votes: 5%
Gore and Kerry share of uncounted: 75%
Turnout Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV - 1.30 16.8% 61% 37% 2%
Gore 95% 3.96 51.0% 94% 5% 1%
Bush 95% 2.23 28.8% 12% 88% 0%
Other 95% 0.27 3.4% 68% 13% 19%
Total 6.46 7.76 100% 64.0% 34.5% 1.5%
7.76 4.97 2.68 0.12
Sensitivity Analysis
Kerry Kerry share of New voters
%Gore 57.0% 59.0% 61.0% 63.0% 65.0%
Voters
Kerry NY Vote Share
98% 65.4% 65.7% 66.0% 66.4% 66.7%
96% 64.3% 64.7% 65.0% 65.3% 65.7%
94% 63.3% 63.7% 64.0% 64.3% 64.7%
92% 62.3% 62.6% 63.0% 63.3% 63.6%
90% 61.3% 61.6% 61.9% 62.3% 62.6%
Kerry Margin
98% 2.50 2.55 2.61 2.66 2.71
96% 2.34 2.39 2.45 2.50 2.55
94% 2.18 2.24 2.29 2.34 2.39
92% 2.03 2.08 2.13 2.18 2.23
90% 1.87 1.92 1.97 2.02 2.08
Gore Gore Voter Turnout in 2004
share 93.0% 94.0% 95.0% 96.0% 97.0%
Unctd
Votes Kerry NY Vote Share
85% 64.0% 64.2% 64.3% 64.5% 64.7%
80% 63.8% 64.0% 64.2% 64.3% 64.5%
75% 63.6% 63.8% 64.0% 64.2% 64.3%
70% 63.5% 63.6% 63.8% 64.0% 64.2%
65% 63.3% 63.5% 63.6% 63.8% 64.0%
Kerry Margin
85% 2.29 2.32 2.34 2.37 2.40
80% 2.26 2.29 2.32 2.34 2.37
75% 2.23 2.26 2.29 2.32 2.34
70% 2.20 2.23 2.26 2.29 2.32
65% 2.18 2.20 2.23 2.26 2.29
________________________________________________________________________________________________
Implausible Scenarios
(vote shares adjusted to match to recorded vote)
Scenario 1:
Bush wins 100% of Nader 2000 voters
Turnout Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV 1.236 16.7% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 95% 3.718 50.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 95% 2.172 29.4% 10% 90% 0%
Nader 95% 0.250 3.4% 0% 100% 0%
Total 6.140 7.376 100% 58.37% 40.79% 0.84%
7.376 4.305 3.009 0.062
Scenario 2:
Bush wins 100% of Bush 2000 voters
Turnout Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV 1.236 16.7% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 95% 3.718 50.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 95% 2.172 29.4% 0% 100% 0%
Nader 95% 0.250 3.4% 64% 17% 19%
Total 6.140 7.376 100% 57.60% 40.92% 1.48%
7.376 4.248 3.018 0.109
Scenario 3:
Bush wins 54% of New 2004 voters (DNV)
Turnout Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV 1.24 16.7% 44% 54% 2%
Gore 95% 3.72 50.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 95% 2.17 29.4% 10% 90% 0%
Nader 95% 0.25 3.4% 64% 17% 19%
Total 6.140 7.376 100% 58.36% 40.15% 1.48%
7.376 4.305 2.962 0.109
________________________________________________________________________
New
York County Vote Changes
(93.4% of final recorded
total)
Vote Change Kerry Bush
Total NYS 246k 6.6% 573k 25.8%
Top 7 Counties 129k 5.4% 311k 41.3%
Final Recorded Vote
Total Dem Nader Bush Dem Nader Bush
2004 7,377 4,314 99 2,963 58.48% 1.35% 40.17%
2000 6,762 4,112 244 2,405 60.82% 3.61% 35.57%
Change 614 201 -144 557 4.9% -59.1% 23.2%
Preliminary Recorded vote
2004 6,892 3,993 103 2,795 57.94% 1.50% 40.56%
2000 6,269 3,746 300 2,222 59.76% 4.79% 35.45%
Change 622 246 -197 573 6.6% -65.5% 25.8%
Change from Preliminary to Final
2004 485 320 -3 167 66.1% -0.75% 34.6%
2000 493 366 -56 183 74.2% -11.4% 37.1%
Seven NYC Area Counties
2000 2004 Vote Change Percent Change
County Precincts Total GORE BUSH NADER Total KERRY BUSH NADER KERRY BUSH NADER KERRY BUSH
Total 7779 3093 69.6% 26.5% 4.1% 3442 66.0% 32.9% 1.1% 129 311 -89 5.4% 41.3%
Brooklyn 1888 557 80% 16% 4% 630 74% 25% 0.8% 23.3 67.2 -17.1 5% 75%
Suffolk 1006 536 53% 42% 5% 618 49% 49% 2.1% 18.0 77.7 -13.7 6% 35%
Nassau 1070 554 58% 39% 4% 597 52% 47% 1.0% -6.7 64.5 -14.7 -2% 30%
Manhattan 1100 522 79% 15% 6% 572 82% 17% 1.4% 59.1 16.4 -25.1 14% 21%
Queens 1470 512 74% 23% 3% 559 71% 28% 0.8% 18.3 41.3 -11.9 5% 36%
Bronx 912 279 86% 12% 2% 318 83% 17% 0.6% 22.8 19.7 -3.9 10% 59%
Staten Island 333 133 52% 45% 3% 148 42% 57% 0.8% -6.2 24.3 -2.9 -9% 40%
Total New York Counties
2000 2004 Vote Change Percent Change
County Precincts Total GORE BUSH NADER Total KERRY BUSH NADER KERRY BUSH NADER KERRY BUSH
Total 15553 6270 59.8% 35.4% 4.8% 6892 57.9% 40.6% 1.5% 247 573 -197 6.6% 25.8%
Brooklyn 1888 557 80% 16% 4% 630 74% 25% 0.8% 23.3 67.2 -17.1 5% 75%
Suffolk 1006 536 53% 42% 5% 618 49% 49% 2.1% 18.0 77.7 -13.7 6% 35%
Nassau 1070 554 58% 39% 4% 597 52% 47% 1.0% -6.7 64.5 -14.7 -2% 30%
Manhattan 1100 522 79% 15% 6% 572 82% 17% 1.4% 59.1 16.4 -25.1 14% 21%
Queens 1470 512 74% 23% 3% 559 71% 28% 0.8% 18.3 41.3 -11.9 5% 36%
Erie 1007 384 57% 37% 6% 411 56% 42% 2.2% 13.3 27.7 -13.5 6% 19%
Westchester 948 306 58% 37% 4% 377 58% 41% 1.5% 39.5 38.9 -7.3 22% 34%
Monroe 792 300 51% 44% 5% 330 50% 48% 1.6% 13.9 26.3 -10.2 9% 20%
Bronx 912 279 86% 12% 2% 318 83% 17% 0.6% 22.8 19.7 -3.9 10% 59%
Onondaga 485 190 54% 41% 5% 199 54% 44% 1.8% 5.4 10.1 -6.5 5% 13%
Staten Island 333 133 52% 45% 3% 148 42% 57% 0.8% -6.2 24.3 -2.9 -9% 40%
Albany 327 130 60% 34% 6% 136 60% 38% 1.9% 3.8 6.9 -5.6 5% 16%
Orange 284 118 46% 50% 5% 135 44% 55% 1.3% 5.1 16.0 -3.7 9% 27%
Rockland 250 117 56% 40% 4% 122 49% 50% 1.5% -6.0 13.7 -2.7 -9% 29%
Dutchess 239 105 47% 47% 6% 114 47% 52% 1.6% 4.0 9.7 -4.7 8% 20%
Saratoga 168 89 45% 50% 5% 100 45% 53% 1.8% 4.7 8.3 -2.3 12% 19%
Niagara 180 87 52% 43% 5% 90 49% 49% 1.9% -1.2 5.9 -2.7 -3% 16%
Oneida 209 87 45% 49% 5% 89 42% 55% 2.3% -1.7 6.5 -2.6 -4% 15%
Broome 193 81 52% 43% 6% 84 50% 48% 2.0% 0.0 5.7 -3.0 0% 16%
Ulster 161 72 48% 44% 8% 84 54% 43% 2.3% 10.6 4.8 -4.1 30% 15%
Rensselaer 136 64 51% 43% 6% 67 49% 48% 2.2% 0.5 4.8 -2.4 2% 17%
Schenectady 131 63 53% 42% 5% 65 52% 47% 1.8% 0.0 4.0 -2.1 0% 15%
Chataqua 135 55 46% 49% 5% 57 45% 53% 1.9% 0.0 3.0 -1.4 0% 11%
Oswego 107 45 47% 48% 5% 49 47% 51% 2.0% 1.8 2.9 -1.3 9% 13%
Ontario 88 42 44% 51% 5% 47 42% 56% 1.6% 1.1 4.5 -1.4 6% 21%
Putnam 72 40 44% 51% 5% 44 41% 58% 1.1% 0.6 4.7 -1.7 3% 23%
Steuben 82 38 36% 59% 4% 39 34% 64% 1.7% -0.3 2.9 -1.0 -2% 13%
Wayne 67 36 39% 56% 4% 39 38% 60% 1.7% 0.4 2.9 -1.0 3% 14%
Tompkins 67 37 54% 34% 12% 38 64% 34% 2.4% 4.8 0.6 -3.6 25% 5%
StLawrence 99 37 54% 41% 5% 38 55% 44% 1.9% 0.8 1.3 -1.1 4% 9%
Chemung 82 35 46% 50% 4% 38 43% 54% 2.4% 0.5 3.3 -0.6 3% 19%
Jefferson 83 27 42% 47% 10% 35 43% 55% 2.1% 3.7 6.3 -2.1 32% 49%
Cayuga 61 30 49% 45% 6% 32 50% 48% 2.2% 1.6 2.3 -1.0 11% 17%
Catargus 74 32 40% 55% 5% 32 39% 59% 1.8% -0.3 1.5 -1.0 -3% 8%
Clinton 64 29 50% 44% 6% 31 52% 46% 2.1% 1.9 1.6 -1.0 13% 12%
Livingston 57 26 39% 56% 6% 29 38% 60% 2.1% 1.4 3.4 -0.8 14% 24%
Sullivan 63 25 50% 45% 5% 28 49% 50% 1.9% 1.0 2.5 -0.8 8% 22%
Madison 51 26 42% 52% 5% 28 43% 55% 1.8% 0.9 1.7 -0.8 8% 12%
Warren 57 26 43% 52% 5% 28 43% 55% 2.0% 0.7 1.9 -0.8 7% 14%
Herkimer 61 25 44% 51% 5% 26 41% 57% 2.0% -0.5 1.9 -0.7 -4% 15%
Columbia 54 26 47% 46% 7% 26 54% 43% 2.1% 1.7 -0.8 -1.4 14% -7%
Genesee 53 26 40% 55% 5% 26 37% 61% 1.6% -0.8 1.4 -1.0 -8% 10%
Otsego 58 23 45% 48% 7% 25 47% 51% 2.0% 0.8 1.3 -1.0 8% 11%
Washington 51 22 41% 53% 6% 23 42% 56% 2.4% 0.8 1.4 -0.7 9% 12%
Greene 52 19 40% 54% 6% 23 39% 59% 2.0% 1.3 3.2 -0.7 17% 31%
Tioga 46 21 41% 54% 5% 22 40% 58% 1.7% 0.4 1.4 -0.6 4% 13%
Cortland 42 20 47% 47% 6% 21 47% 51% 1.9% 0.7 1.5 -0.7 7% 16%
Fulton 49 21 43% 53% 4% 21 41% 57% 1.9% -0.4 0.6 -0.5 -4% 6%
Delaware 59 19 42% 53% 5% 20 40% 58% 2.4% 0.2 1.6 -0.5 3% 16%
Montgomery 49 20 49% 47% 4% 20 44% 54% 1.9% -0.9 1.4 -0.4 -9% 15%
Chenang 39 19 45% 50% 5% 20 43% 55% 2.0% -0.1 1.3 -0.6 -1% 14%
Allegany 41 17 35% 61% 5% 18 34% 64% 1.7% 0.0 1.0 -0.5 0% 10%
Essex 39 16 44% 49% 7% 17 46% 52% 2.2% 0.6 0.9 -0.7 8% 11%
Wyoming 39 17 35% 60% 5% 17 34% 65% 1.4% -0.1 0.9 -0.5 -2% 9%
Franklin 49 16 50% 45% 5% 17 51% 47% 1.9% 0.6 0.7 -0.5 7% 9%
Orleans 40 15 38% 58% 4% 16 35% 63% 1.6% -0.1 1.2 -0.4 -2% 13%
Seneca 27 13 48% 47% 5% 14 45% 52% 2.1% 0.1 1.3 -0.4 2% 21%
Schoharie 29 13 39% 55% 5% 13 39% 59% 2.1% 0.2 0.9 -0.4 4% 14%
Lewis 30 10 40% 56% 4% 11 40% 58% 1.9% 0.3 0.6 -0.2 8% 10%
Yates 20 9 39% 55% 5% 10 39% 60% 1.6% 0.2 0.7 -0.3 5% 15%
Schuyler 17 8 40% 54% 6% 8 40% 58% 1.9% 0.2 0.7 -0.3 8% 18%
Hamilton 11 3 29% 64% 7% 3 32% 66% 1.6% 0.1 0.1 -0.2 15% 6%
________________________________________________________________________
NY 2000-2004 County Vote Analysis
The data includes the first 6.3m of 6.8m recorded 2000
votes (Gore won 74% of the final 500,000) and the first 6.8m of 7.3m recorded
2004 votes (Kerry won 66% of the final 500,000).
Final Recorded Vote
Total Dem Nader Bush Dem Nader Bush
2004 7,377 4,314 99 2,963 58.48% 1.35% 40.17%
2000 6,762 4,112 244 2,405 60.82% 3.61% 35.57%
Change 614 201 -144 557 4.9% -59.1% 23.2%
Preliminary Recorded vote
2004 6,892 3,993 103 2,795 57.94% 1.50% 40.56%
2000 6,269 3,746 300 2,222 59.76% 4.79% 35.45%
Change 622 246 -1967 573 6.6% -65.5% 25.8%
Change from Preliminary to Final
2004 485 320 -3 167 66.1% -0.75% 34.6%
2000 493 366 -56 183 74.2% -11.4% 37.1%
Analysis of Changes in Margin
2000 Gore 2004 Kerry Increase in Bush
County Gore Bush Nader Margin Kerry Bush Nader Margin Margin Vote
Albany 59.7% 34.0% 6.3% 25.7% 60.2% 37.8% 1.9% 22.4% 3.3% 6922
Allegany 34.7% 60.5% 4.8% -25.8% 33.8% 64.5% 1.7% -30.6% 4.8% 1031
Bronx 86.0% 11.9% 2.1% 74.1% 82.7% 16.7% 0.6% 66.0% 8.0% 19734
Brooklyn 79.9% 16.1% 4.0% 63.9% 74.3% 24.8% 0.8% 49.5% 14.4% 67235
Broome 51.8% 42.5% 5.7% 9.3% 50.1% 47.9% 2.0% 2.2% 7.0% 5684
Catargus 40.4% 54.6% 5.1% -14.2% 39.2% 59.0% 1.8% -19.8% 5.6% 1453
Cayuga 49.3% 44.9% 5.8% 4.4% 49.9% 47.9% 2.2% 2.0% 2.4% 2266
Chataqua 46.3% 49.1% 4.5% -2.8% 45.1% 53.1% 1.9% -8.0% 5.3% 3038
Chemung 46.1% 49.8% 4.2% -3.7% 43.4% 54.3% 2.4% -10.9% 7.2% 3327
Chenang 44.8% 49.7% 5.5% -4.8% 43.0% 55.0% 2.0% -12.0% 7.1% 1343
Clinton 50.4% 43.9% 5.7% 6.4% 52.4% 45.5% 2.1% 6.9% -0.4% 1565
Columbia 46.9% 45.8% 7.3% 1.1% 54.4% 43.5% 2.1% 10.9% -9.8% -829
Cortland 47.1% 47.1% 5.9% 0.0% 47.1% 51.0% 1.9% -3.8% 3.8% 1498
Delaware 41.5% 53.2% 5.2% -11.7% 39.8% 57.7% 2.4% -17.9% 6.2% 1628
Dutchess 46.7% 47.1% 6.2% -0.4% 46.5% 51.9% 1.6% -5.3% 4.9% 9666
Erie 56.8% 37.4% 5.9% 19.4% 56.2% 41.6% 2.2% 14.6% 4.8% 27705
Essex 44.2% 49.0% 6.8% -4.8% 45.7% 52.2% 2.2% -6.5% 1.7% 912
Franklin 50.1% 44.6% 5.3% 5.5% 51.4% 46.7% 1.9% 4.7% 0.8% 678
Fulton 42.7% 53.1% 4.2% -10.5% 41.3% 56.8% 1.9% -15.6% 5.1% 644
Genesee 39.8% 54.9% 5.2% -15.1% 37.2% 61.2% 1.6% -23.9% 8.9% 1393
Greene 40.0% 53.8% 6.2% -13.7% 39.2% 58.8% 2.0% -19.7% 5.9% 3237
Hamilton 28.8% 64.3% 6.9% -35.5% 32.2% 66.2% 1.6% -34.0% -1.5% 131
Herkimer 44.1% 51.1% 4.8% -7.1% 41.0% 57.0% 2.0% -16.0% 9.0% 1910
Jefferson 42.3% 47.4% 10.3% -5.1% 43.2% 54.7% 2.1% -11.5% 6.4% 6343
Lewis 39.7% 56.0% 4.3% -16.4% 40.3% 57.9% 1.9% -17.6% 1.3% 575
Livingston 38.6% 55.9% 5.5% -17.3% 38.1% 59.8% 2.1% -21.7% 4.3% 3363
Madison 42.5% 52.3% 5.2% -9.8% 43.0% 55.2% 1.8% -12.2% 2.4% 1686
Manhattan 78.5% 15.1% 6.3% 63.4% 81.9% 16.7% 1.4% 65.3% -1.9% 16421
Monroe 50.8% 44.1% 5.1% 6.6% 50.4% 48.1% 1.6% 2.3% 4.4% 26322
Montgomery 49.3% 46.9% 3.8% 2.5% 44.5% 53.6% 1.9% -9.1% 11.6% 1388
Nassau 57.6% 38.7% 3.7% 18.9% 52.3% 46.7% 1.0% 5.6% 13.3% 64523
Niagara 51.7% 43.3% 5.0% 8.4% 49.2% 48.9% 1.9% 0.3% 8.1% 5919
Oneida 45.4% 49.3% 5.3% -3.9% 42.3% 55.4% 2.3% -13.1% 9.2% 6538
Onondaga 53.8% 40.9% 5.3% 12.9% 54.1% 44.1% 1.8% 9.9% 3.0% 10102
Ontario 43.6% 51.4% 5.0% -7.9% 42.0% 56.4% 1.6% -14.4% 6.6% 4541
Orange 45.8% 49.6% 4.6% -3.8% 43.6% 55.0% 1.3% -11.4% 7.6% 16027
Orleans 37.8% 58.0% 4.2% -20.2% 35.5% 63.0% 1.6% -27.5% 7.3% 1150
Oswego 47.0% 48.1% 4.9% -1.0% 47.4% 50.6% 2.0% -3.1% 2.1% 2869
Otsego 45.4% 48.1% 6.5% -2.7% 46.8% 51.2% 2.0% -4.4% 1.7% 1252
Putnam 43.5% 51.0% 5.5% -7.4% 41.3% 57.5% 1.1% -16.2% 8.8% 4697
Queens 74.2% 22.5% 3.2% 51.7% 71.2% 28.0% 0.8% 43.2% 8.5% 41325
Rensselaer 50.9% 43.2% 6.0% 7.7% 49.4% 48.4% 2.2% 1.0% 6.7% 4817
Rockland 55.9% 40.2% 3.9% 15.7% 48.7% 49.8% 1.5% -1.1% 16.8% 13655
St Lawrence 53.9% 41.2% 4.9% 12.7% 54.6% 43.5% 1.9% 11.0% 1.6% 1319
Saratoga 45.4% 50.0% 4.7% -4.6% 45.2% 53.0% 1.8% -7.8% 3.2% 8344
Schenectady 53.2% 41.7% 5.2% 11.5% 51.5% 46.7% 1.8% 4.9% 6.6% 4008
Schoharie 39.3% 55.5% 5.2% -16.1% 38.6% 59.4% 2.1% -20.8% 4.7% 941
Schuyler 40.4% 53.8% 5.9% -13.4% 40.0% 58.1% 1.9% -18.1% 4.7% 721
Seneca 47.9% 46.7% 5.4% 1.3% 45.5% 52.5% 2.1% -7.0% 8.2% 1277
Staten Island 51.8% 45.2% 3.1% 6.6% 42.3% 56.9% 0.8% -14.7% 21.3% 24335
Steuben 36.3% 59.4% 4.3% -23.2% 33.9% 64.4% 1.7% -30.5% 7.3% 2906
Suffolk 53.2% 41.8% 5.0% 11.4% 49.1% 48.8% 2.1% 0.3% 11.2% 77671
Sullivan 49.8% 45.0% 5.2% 4.7% 48.5% 49.5% 1.9% -1.0% 5.8% 2513
Tioga 40.8% 54.5% 4.7% -13.6% 40.3% 58.0% 1.7% -17.7% 4.1% 1447
Tompkins 54.0% 33.7% 12.3% 20.3% 63.9% 33.7% 2.4% 30.2% -10.0% 627
Ulster 48.2% 43.5% 8.3% 4.6% 54.3% 43.4% 2.3% 10.9% -6.3% 4831
Warren 43.2% 51.7% 5.1% -8.6% 42.9% 55.1% 2.0% -12.2% 3.7% 1913
Washington 41.1% 53.1% 5.7% -12.0% 42.1% 55.6% 2.4% -13.5% 1.5% 1351
Wayne 39.2% 56.4% 4.4% -17.2% 38.0% 60.4% 1.7% -22.4% 5.2% 2857
Westchester 58.4% 37.4% 4.2% 21.0% 57.9% 40.7% 1.5% 17.2% 3.8% 38923
Wyoming 35.0% 60.4% 4.6% -25.4% 33.7% 64.9% 1.4% -31.2% 5.8% 919
Yates 39.5% 55.4% 5.1% -15.9% 38.8% 59.6% 1.6% -20.8% 4.9% 735
