National and State Pre-election Polling
Trend
National Pre-election Monthly Trend
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm
In the Nov.1 Election Model, Kerry led the final 18 national pre-election polls by 47.17-46.89%. Nine polls were registered voter (RV) and
9 were likely voter (LV). Kerry led in 11, Bush in 6. The final Election Day Zogby and Harris LV polls were not included in the Nov.1 election model.
Both had Kerry winning by 50-47%. But that was before the allocation of undecided voters which Harris and Zogby said were breaking 2-1 to 4-1 for Kerry.
According to the 12:22am National Exit Poll (NEP) , Kerry won the 6% of voters who decided on Election Day by 53-40%; he won the 10% who
decided in the final month by 60-38%. There is no doubt that Kerry won a solid majority of late undecided voters. The Election Model included
a sensitivity analysis based on 5 undecided voter scenarios in which Kerry was projected to win 60, 67, 75, 80 and 87% of the undecided vote.
The following 2004 National Pre-election Polls Monthly Trend of projections assumes that 75% of undecided voters break for Kerry. Kerry led
the pre-election poll average every month except for January and September. There was a near-perfect 0.87 statistical correlation between the Bush
average monthly approval rating and polling share.
The Bush 48.5% average approval rating on Election Day is a key indicator of fraud, based on the following correlation analysis of pre-election national
polls and the mysterious divergence of National Exit Poll approval weights from the average.
There was a near-perfect 0.87 statistical correlation between Bush’s average monthly approval rating and his average national pre-election poll.
Tim Lohrentz presented an excellent analysis of
how the 2004 pre-election
polls confirmed the validity of the exit polls.
Date
Nwk Fox
CNN Pew
Harris CBS
ABC Time
NBC AP
Zogby Mean
Jan-04
50 58
60 56
na 50
58 54
54 56
49 54.4
Feb-04
48 48
51 48
51 50 50
54 na
47
na 49.5
Mar-04
48 48
49 46
na 51 50
na 50
48
na 48.8
Apr-04
49 50
52 48
48 46 51
49 na
48
47 48.6
May-04
42 48
47 44
na 41 47
46 47
48
42 45.2
Jun-04
na 48
49 48
50 42 47
na 45
48
46 47.0
Jul-04
48 47
47 46
na 45 50
50 48
50
49 47.8
Aug-04
45 51
51 46
48 46
50 51
47 49
44 48.0
Sep-04
48 50
52 46
45 48 50
53 47
54
47 49.1
Oct-04
46 49
46 44
na 49
53 53
49 47
49 48.5
National Pre-election polls vs. Bush approval
Average monthly pre-election polling
Jan Feb
Mar April
May June
July Aug
Sept Oct
Kerry
40.78 47.80 47.58
46.31 46.86 46.64
47.47 47.40 44.33 47.17
Bush
51.56 46.10 44.83
45.62 44.71 45.71
45.20 45.40 48.28 46.89
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Average monthly approval
54.4 49.5 48.8
48.6 45.2
47.0 47.8 48.0
49.1 48.5
Projections (75% of undecided to Kerry)
Kerry
45.78 51.62 52.52
51.62 52.43 51.62
52.22 52.05 49.12 50.88
Bush
53.22 47.38 46.48
47.38 46.57 47.38
46.78 46.95 49.88 48.12
Other
1.00 1.00
1.00 1.00
1.00 1.00
1.00 1.00
1.00 1.00
2-party
Kerry
46.53 52.38 53.27
52.37 53.18 52.38
52.97 52.80 49.88 51.63
Bush
53.47 47.62 46.73
47.63 46.82 47.62
47.03 47.20 50.12 48.37
National Pre-election polls
and Kerry projected vote
TIPP
Kerry
na 44
45 40
43 43
46 44
46 44
Bush
na 41
43 44
42 44
43 44
45 45
Proj
na 54.5
53.3 51.3
53.5 52.0
53.5 52.3
52.0 51.5
ABC
Kerry
na 52
53 48
49 53
47 49
45 48
Bush
na 43
44 49
47 45
49 48
51 47
Proj
na 55.0
54.5 49.5
51.3 53.8
49.3 50.5
47.3 51.0
AP
Kerry
37 na
45 44
43 43
45 48
42 49
Bush
54 na
46 45
46 46
49 45
51 46
Proj
43.0 na
51.0 51.5
50.5 50.5
48.8 52.5
46.5 52.0
NWK
Kerry
41 50
48 50
46 46
51 52
45 45
Bush
52 45
45 43
45 45
45 44
50 48
Proj
45.5 53.0
52.5 54.5
52.0 52.0 53.3
54.3 48.0 49.5
ARG
Kerry
47 48
50 50
47 48
49 49
46 49
Bush
46 46
43 44
44 46
45 46
47 48
Proj
51.5 51.8
54.5 53.8
53.0 51.8
52.8 52.0
50.5 50.5
NBC
Kerry
35 na
43 43
42 44
45 45
46 47
Bush
54 na
46 46
46 45
47 47
49 48
Proj
42.5 na
50.5 50.5
50.3 51.5
50.3 50.3
49.0 50.0
FOX
Kerry
32 43
44 42
42 42
42 45
43 48
Bush
54 47
44 43
42 48
43 44
45 45
Proj
41.8 49.8
52.3 52.5
53.3 48.8
52.5 52.5
51.3 52.5
CBS
Kerry
48 47
48 48
49 45
49 45
41 46
Bush
43 46
43 43
41 44
44 44
49 47
Proj
54.0 51.5 54.0
54.0 55.8
52.5 53.5
52.5 47.8 50.5
Gallup
Kerry
43 48
52 46
49 48
51 48
44 48
Bush
55 49
44 51
47 49
44 47
52 46
Proj
43.8 49.5
54.3 47.5
51.3 49.5
54.0 51.0 46.3
51.8
Pew
Kerry
41 47
48 47
50 46
46 47
40 46
Bush
52 47
44 46
45 48
44 45
48 45
Proj
45.5 50.8
53.3 51.5
53.0 49.8
52.8 52.3
48.3 52.0
LAT
Kerry
na na
na 49
49 51
48 46
43 48
Bush
na na
na 46
46 44
46 49
47 47
Proj
na na
na 52.0
52.0 54.0 51.8
49.0 49.8 51.0
Zogby
Kerry
na na
48 47
47 44
48 50
44 47
Bush
na na
46 44
42 42
43 43
47 48
Proj
na na
51.8 53.0
54.5 53.8
54.0 54.5
50.0 50.0
TIME
Kerry
43 48
na na
51 51
50 46
44 46
Bush
54 50
na na
46 46
45 46
48 51
Proj
44.5 48.8
na na
52.5 52.5
53.0 51.3
49.3 47.5
Dem
Corp
Kerry
na 51
47 48
49 49
50 52
49 48
Bush
na 47
50 49
47 48
47 45
49 47
Proj
na 51.8
48.5 49.5
51.3 50.5
51.5 53.5
49.8 51.0
Marist
Kerry
na na
na na
na na
45 45
45 49
Bush
na na
na na
na na
44 44
47 48
Proj
na na
na na
na na
52.5 52.5
50.3 50.5
Harris
Kerry
na na
na na
na na
na na
46 48
Bush
na na
na na
na na
na na
48 47
Proj
na na
na na
na na
na na
49.8 51.0
Economist
Kerry
na na
na na
na na
na na
46 49
Bush
na na
na na
na na
na na
46 45
Proj
na na
na na
na na
na na
51.3 52.8
ICR
Kerry
na na
na na
na na
na na
43 44
Bush
na na
na na
na na
na na
50 46
Proj
na na
na na
na na
na na
47.5 50.8
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Date |
Poll |
Size |
Type |
KERRY |
BUSH |
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November |
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2 |
Harris |
1509 |
LV |
48 |
47 |
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2 |
Zogby |
1200 |
LV |
47 |
48 |
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1 |
Marist |
1166 |
LV |
49 |
48 |
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1 |
Econ |
2903 |
RV |
49 |
45 |
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1 |
TIPP |
1284 |
LV |
44 |
45 |
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1 |
CBS |
1125 |
RV |
46 |
47 |
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October 31 |
FOX |
1400 |
RV |
48 |
45 |
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31 |
Dem Corp |
1018 |
LV |
48 |
47 |
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31 |
Gallup |
1866 |
RV |
48 |
46 |
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31 |
NBC |
1014 |
LV |
47 |
48 |
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31 |
ABC |
3511 |
RV |
48 |
47 |
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30 |
ARG |
1258 |
LV |
49 |
48 |
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30 |
Pew |
2408 |
RV |
46 |
45 |
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29 |
Nwk |
1005 |
RV |
45 |
48 |
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26 |
ICR |
817 |
RV |
44 |
46 |
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24 |
LAT |
1698 |
RV |
48 |
47 |
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21 |
Time |
803 |
LV |
46 |
51 |
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20 |
AP |
976 |
LV |
49 |
46 |
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__________________________________________________________________________________________________
State
Pre-election Polling Trend
The Election Model Monte Carlo Simulation forecast was updated during
the four months leading up to the election as new state polling data was
introduced. The projections below assume that Kerry, running against the
unpopular Bush, would win 60-75% of undecided voters (UVA).
7-Sep
7-Oct 1-Nov
Final
Kerry
Bush Kerry
Bush Kerry Bush
Before UVA:
Unweighted
Average
43.94 47.65 46.84
46.86 45.70 47.60
Weighted Average
45.54 46.45 47.97
46.66 47.88
46.89
Projection (75% UVA):
2-party vote
51.54
48.46 51.99 48.01
51.80 48.20
Total vote (Other: 1%)
50.79
48.21 51.24 47.76
51.05 47.95
Projection (60% UVA):
2-party
vote
50.71 49.29 51.10
48.90 51.02 48.98
Total vote (Other:
1%)
50.21 48.79 50.60
48.40 50.52 48.48
State
Date Pollster
Kerry Bush Kerry
Bush Kerry Bush
AL
Oct 27 Survey USA
34 54
40 56
39 57
AK
Sep 11 ARG
33
56 39
55 30
57
AZ
Oct 26 Rasmussen
42 45
47 50
45 50
AR
Oct 29 Mason-Dixon
47 48
47 47
48 48
CA
Oct 27 Field Poll
50 42
51 43
49 42
CO
Oct 30 Zogby
47 47
49 48
47 48
CT
Oct 28 Research 2000
45 38
47 38
52 42
DE
Sep 25 W Chester U
55 42
45 38
45 38
DC
Sep 13 ARG
86
9
78 11
78 11
FL
Oct 30 Zogby
44
48
50 48
50 47
GA
Oct 29 Zogby
38
55
42 53
42 52
HI
Oct 20 SMS Res
48 41
51 41
45 45
ID
Sep 10 ARG
25
55 30
59 30
59
IL
Oct 29 Survey USA
52 38
55 38
54 42
IN
Oct 29 Survey USA
40 52
40 53
39 58
IA
Oct 30 Zogby
47 47
51 44
50 44
KS
Oct 27 Survey USA
36 56
35 57
37 60
KY
Oct 20 Bluegrass
39 56
38 53
39 56
LA
Oct 22 SE LA U
36
52 42
50 40
48
ME
Oct 21 Zogby
49
44
42 39
50 39
MD
Oct 29 Survey USA
53 42
48 45
54 43
MA
Oct 5 Merrimack
56 30
64 27
64 27
MI
Oct 30 Zogby
48
44
52 42
52 45
MN
Oct 30 Zogby
46
46
53 44
52 44
MS
Sep 17 ARG
30
61 42
51 42
51
MO
Oct 29 Mason-Dixon
45 49
49 50
44 49
MT
Oct 20 Mason-Dixon
33 53
36 54
36 57
NE
Oct 20 RKM Research 33
62
30 61
32 61
NV
Oct 29 Survey USA
48 46
48 47
49 49
NH
Oct 30 ARG
51
43 51
44 47
47
NJ
Oct 29 Survey USA
50 46
50 45
50 42
NM
Oct 30
ARG
42 45
55 43
49 49
NY
Oct 28 Survey USA
56 37
53 41
57 39
NC Oct
26 Mason-Dixon
45 51
47 50
47 50
ND
Oct 19 Minn St U
33 61
33 62
35 55
OH
Oct 30 Zogby
42 48
48 47
50 47
OK
Oct 24 Wilson Res
38 57
29 52
28 61
OR
Oct 29 Mason-Dixon
54 43
55 44
50 44
PA
Oct 30 Zogby
46
47 52
46 50
45
RI
Oct 27 Survey USA
49 25
55 37
56 36
SC
Oct 24 Survey USA
42 53
37 55
42 55
SD
Oct 24 McLaughlin
40 54
40 52
42 52
TN
Oct 21 Mason-Dixon
50 48
48 50
48 50
TX
Oct 28 Survey USA
33 57
37 58
37 59
UT
Oct 28 Dan Jones
22 67
27 64
24 69
VT
Oct 12 Research2k
51 36
50 40
53 40
VA
Oct 29 Survey USA
45 49
47 50
47 51
WA
Oct 27 Strat Vision
48 43
54 44
52 44
WV
Oct 29 Mason-Dixon 42
49 44
50 46
49
WI
Oct 30 Zogby
49 45
51 48
51 44
WY
Sep 11 ARG
28
68 29
65 29
65
___________________________________________________________________
Weekly Average State Polling
Trend
Although Bush led in the unweighted average, Kerry led the weighted average trend (based on the 1992-2000 average state vote) from July to Election Day, except for the first two weeks in September. The projections assume Kerry would win 75% of the undecided vote.
Poll
Unweighted
Weighted
2-party Projected
Date
Kerry Bush
Kerry
Bush Kerry Bush
Kerry Bush
2-Jul
43.5 46.5
45.4 44.6
50.5 49.5
52.2 46.8
10-Jul
43.8 46.7
45.8 44.9
50.5 49.5
52.0 47.0
17-Jul
44.5 46.5
46.5 44.3
51.2 48.8
52.6 46.4
24-Jul
44.2 46.1
45.6 43.6 51.1
48.9 52.9 46.1
2-Aug
44.4 46.5
46.3 44.6
50.9 49.1
52.3 46.7
10-Aug
44.3 46.4
46.4 44.3
51.2 48.8
52.7 46.3
18-Aug
44.1 46.4
46.2 44.3
51.0 49.0
52.6 46.4
26-Aug
45.2 47.5
47.2 46.6
50.3 49.7
51.1 47.9
7-Sep
43.9 47.6
45.5 46.5
49.5 50.5
50.8 48.2
14-Sep
43.7 48.4
45.6 47.3
49.1 50.9
50.2 48.8
22-Sep
45.0 48.7
47.3 47.1
50.1 49.9
50.8 48.2
29-Sep
44.1 47.6
46.0 45.5
50.3 49.7
51.7 47.3
7-Oct
45.7 47.6
47.9 46.7
50.7 49.3
51.2 47.8
14-Oct
45.4 47.9
47.3 46.7
50.3 49.7
51.0 48.0
21-Oct
46.0 48.1
48.4 46.4
51.1 48.9
51.5 47.5
28-Oct
45.4 47.4
47.1 45.9
50.7 49.3
51.6 47.4
1-Nov
45.55 48.28 47.88
46.89 50.52 49.48
51.05 47.95
___________________________________________________________________
Battleground Polls
Final pre-election Zogby polls for nine battleground states were included in the Election Model Monte Carlo simulation forecast.
Kerry was leading in 8 of the 9 states by an average of 50.2-44.8%. The base case assumption was that he would capture 75%
of the undecided (UVA) vote and win all 9 states by a 53.7-45.9% margin. The conservative assumption was that he would capture
55% UVA and win 8 states by 52.7-46.8%. He won just 4 by 50.1- 49.4%. The margin of error was exceeded in 7 states,
a 1 in 4.7 billion probability.
75% UVA 55%
UVA
Zogby Oct. 31
Poll Projection
Projection
Recorded 75%
UVA
State
Kerry Bush Kerry
Bush Kerry
Bush Kerry
Bush Dev Prob
CO
47 48
50.3 49.1
49.4 50.0 47.4
52.1 2.97 3.27%
FL
50 47
51.9 47.6
51.4 48.2
47.3 52.3
4.65
0.20%
IA
50 44
54.2 45.4
53.1 46.5 49.5
50.1 4.73 0.17%
ME
50 39
57.6 41.5
55.6 43.6
54.1 45.1
3.54 1.42%
MI
52 45
53.9 45.6
53.4 46.1 51.5
48.0 2.40 6.83%
MN
52 44
54.5 44.8
53.8 45.5
51.5 47.9
3.08 2.82%
OH
50 47
52.3 47.8
51.7 48.4 48.9
51.1 3.30 2.03%
PA
50 45
53.8 46.3
52.8 47.3
51.3 48.7
2.48 6.18%
WI
51 44
54.3 45.1
53.5 46.0 49.9
49.6 4.43 0.30%
Mean
50.2 44.8
53.7 45.9
52.7 46.8
50.1 49.5
3.51 2.58%
Probability
of average deviation (in parenthesis):
Sample MoE
75% UVA
(3.51%) 55% UVA (2.58%)
1000
3.16% 1 in
68 1 in
19
6000
1.29% 1 in 20
million 1 in 25
thousand
9000
1.05% 1 in 30
billion 1 in 1.5
million
Comparison of Zogby Battleground
Pre-election polls and Unadjusted exit polls
The 9-poll projection average was
within 0.5% of the exit poll average.
Average
of 9 Battleground states
Poll
Kerry Bush
Zogby
50.2 44.8 (final pre-election polls)
Projection 53.7 45.9 (75%
undecided to Kerry)
Exit (WPE) 53.2 45.8
Zogby Poll
Projection Exit Poll
Recorded
St
Kerry Bush
Kerry Bush Kerry Bush
Kerry Bush
CO 47
48 50.3
49.1 50.1 48.6
47.4 52.1
FL
50 47 51.9
47.6 50.9
48.3 47.3 52.3
IA
50 44 54.2
45.4 50.7
48.4 49.5 50.1
ME
50 39 57.6
41.5 55.5
42.7 54.1
45.1
MI
52 45 53.9
45.6 54.4
44.7 51.5 48.0
MN
52 44 54.5
44.8 55.7
43.0 51.5 47.9
OH
50 47 52.3
47.8 54.2
45.4 48.9
51.1
PA
50 45 53.8
46.3 55.3
44.0 51.3 48.7
WI
51 44 54.3
45.1 52.0
47.0 49.9 49.6
Average 50.2
44.8 53.7
45.9 53.2
45.8 50.1
49.5
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
State Exit Polls
Pre-election Projections vs. Exit Polls vs.
Recorded Vote
The pre-election 2004 Election Model predicted that Kerry would win 337 EV based on the final state pre-election polls, assuming that he
captured 75% of undecided voters. The post-election True Vote Model determined that Kerry actually won 336 electoral votes. This was based
on 12:22am National Exit Poll, assuming 95% turnout of 2000 voters and a 75% Kerry share of 3.4mm uncounted votes (2004 Census).
The actual recorded state vote
shares consistently understated Kerry’s pre-election and 12:22am exit poll
shares. But aggregate weighted
pre-election state and national poll projections matched the 12:22am exit polls. If, as the naysayers claim, the exit polls were biased for Kerry,
do they also suggest that the close match between pre-election and exit polls imply that the pre-election polls were biased as well?
Final
NEP
Recorded
2-party
Kerry Bush Kerry
Bush Kerry Bush
47.78 51.22 48.27 50.73
48.76 51.24
UVA: percentage of undecided allocated
to Kerry
2-party: 0.75% of 3rd party to Kerry,
0.25% to
Bush
Final Poll
Projection 2-party
Kerry Bush Kerry
Bush Kerry Bush
PRE-ELECTION
75%
UVA
National
47.17
46.89 50.88 48.12
51.63 48.37
State
47.88 46.89 51.05 47.95
51.80 48.20
60% UVA
National
47.17
46.89 50.13 48.87
50.88 49.12
State
47.88 46.89 50.42
48.58 51.17 48.83
EXIT POLLS
NEP
Gender 50.78
48.22 50.78 48.22
51.53 48.47
NEP Voted 2k
51.41 47.59 51.41
47.59 52.16 47.84
State (Gender) 50.33
48.88 50.33
48.88 50.92 49.08
State (WPE)
51.81 48.19 51.81
48.19 52.51 47.49
MODELS
Optimizer
1 51.62 47.37
51.62 47.37 52.15 47.85
(1250 precincts grouped by partisanship)
Optimizer
2 51.62 47.37
51.62 47.37 52.15 47.85
(Big City, Small City, Suburban, Small Town, Rural)
Optimizer
3 51.77 47.21
51.77 47.21 52.30 47.70
(States grouped by partisanship)
True
Vote 52.57
46.43 52.57 46.43
53.32 46.68
Calculator
53.45 45.50 53.45
45.50 54.15 45.85
Optimizer: 1250 E-M precinct WPE, partisanship response rates
True Vote: 2000 recorded voter turnout, 0.87% mortality, 95% turnout
Calculator: 2000 Census voter turnout, 1.22% voter mortality, 95% turnout
_____________________________________________________________________
