Sensitivity Analysis: Further Confirmation of a Kerry Landslide
TruthIsAll
Sensitivity analysis is an important tool in measuring risk in analytical modeling.
Model input assumptions are based on the best available data, but one must
“stress test” a model by running various scenarios to gauge the effect of incremental
changes in the assumptions on the result. This analysis displays the effects of
incremental changes in vote share assumptions on the True Vote for various 2004
National Exit Poll categories.
Since the Final NEP (13660 respondents) was forced to match the recorded vote count, we cannot use it as a viable base case (the “Voted in 2000” category weightings are mathematically impossible). Therefore, the 12:22am NEP update vote shares (13047 respondents) are used for the Base Case in order to calculate the True Vote. At 12:22am, Kerry was the presumptive winner with 51.4% of the vote.
But 51.4% was too low since the 12:22am update indicated a 41% Bush/ 39% Gore 2000 voter participation mix in 2004. The Bush 41% weighting was not feasible; it implied that 50.1m of 50.5m Bush 2000 voters came to the polls in 2004. That was impossible since close to 2 million died and another 2 million did not vote, so no more than 46.5m Bush 2000 voters could have voted in 2004.
The weights had to be changed to reflect a plausible estimate of returning 2000 voters in 2004. The resulting 38.2% Gore/ 37.8% Bush mix was calculated by adjusting the 2000 recorded vote for the a) 0.87% annual mortality rate and b) the assumption that 95% of 2000 voters turned out in 2004. The adjusted weights are equal to the number of returning Gore and Bush voters, respectively, each divided by the 2004 recorded vote of 122.3m. The effect of the change in weights was to increase in Kerry’s True Vote from 51.4% to 52.6%, a 66.1-58.4m margin (the U.S. Census estimated that 125.7m votes were cast in 2004, of which 3.4m were uncounted).
Vote shares for the demographic categories listed below were adjusted to match the True Vote. The Base Case Scenario for each category is displayed above the Kerry national vote share table.
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Voted in 2000 (adjusted weights)
Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Did Not Vote 27.02 21.5% 57.0% 41.0% 2.0% Gore 48.08 38.2% 91.0% 8.0% 1.0% Bush 47.56 37.8% 10.0% 90.0% 0.0% Other 3.08 2.5% 71.0% 21.0% 8.0% Share Total 100.0% 52.6% 46.4% 1.0% Votes 125.74 125.74 66.09 58.38 1.27 Kerry share of Did not vote in 2000 Gore 49.0% 51.0% 53.0% 54.0% 57.0% 59.0% 61.0%
voters Kerry vote share
86% 48.9% 49.4% 49.8% 50.0% 50.7% 51.1% 51.5%87% 49.3% 49.7% 50.2% 50.4% 51.0% 51.5% 51.9%88% 49.7% 50.1% 50.6% 50.8% 51.4% 51.8% 52.3%89% 50.1% 50.5% 50.9% 51.2% 51.8% 52.2% 52.7%90% 50.5% 50.9% 51.3% 51.5% 52.2% 52.6% 53.0%91% 50.8% 51.3% 51.7% 51.9% 52.6% 53.0% 53.4%92% 51.2% 51.7% 52.1% 52.3% 52.9% 53.4% 53.8% Kerry share of Bush 2000 voters Gore 7.0% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5% 9.0% 9.5% 10.0%
voters Kerry vote share
85% 49.1% 49.3% 49.5% 49.7% 49.9% 50.1% 50.3%86% 49.5% 49.7% 49.9% 50.1% 50.3% 50.5% 50.7%87% 49.9% 50.1% 50.3% 50.5% 50.7% 50.8% 51.0%88% 50.3% 50.5% 50.7% 50.9% 51.0% 51.2% 51.4%89% 50.7% 50.9% 51.0% 51.2% 51.4% 51.6% 51.8%90% 51.0% 51.2% 51.4% 51.6% 51.8% 52.0% 52.2%91% 51.4% 51.6% 51.8% 52.0% 52.2% 52.4% 52.6%
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Gender Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Male 58.34 46.4% 49.5% 49.5% 1.0% Female 67.40 53.6% 55.0% 44.0% 1.0% Share Total 100.0% 52.4% 46.6% 1.0% Votes 125.74 125.74 65.95 58.56 1.23 Kerry share of MalesFemales 44.0% 45.0% 46.0% 47.0% 48.0% 49.0% 50.0%
Kerry vote share
51% 47.8% 48.2% 48.7% 49.1% 49.6% 50.1% 50.5%52% 48.3% 48.8% 49.2% 49.7% 50.1% 50.6% 51.1%53% 48.8% 49.3% 49.8% 50.2% 50.7% 51.1% 51.6%54% 49.4% 49.8% 50.3% 50.8% 51.2% 51.7% 52.1%55% 49.9% 50.4% 50.8% 51.3% 51.8% 52.2% 52.7%
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Race and Gender Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other WMale 45.27 36.0% 43.0% 56.0% 1.0% WFem 51.55 41.0% 48.0% 51.0% 1.0% NwMale 12.57 10.0% 73.0% 26.0% 1.0% NwFem 16.35 13.0% 77.0% 22.0% 1.0% Share Total 100.0% 52.5% 46.5% 1.0% Votes 125.74 125.74 65.98 58.51 1.26 Kerry share of Non-white FemalesWhite 75.0% 76.0% 77.0% 78.0% 79.0% 80.0% 81.0%
Females Kerry vote share
44% 50.6% 50.7% 50.8% 51.0% 51.1% 51.2% 51.4%45% 51.0% 51.1% 51.2% 51.4% 51.5% 51.6% 51.8%46% 51.4% 51.5% 51.7% 51.8% 51.9% 52.0% 52.2%47% 51.8% 51.9% 52.1% 52.2% 52.3% 52.5% 52.6%48% 52.2% 52.3% 52.5% 52.6% 52.7% 52.9% 53.0%49% 52.6% 52.8% 52.9% 53.0% 53.1% 53.3% 53.4%50% 53.0% 53.2% 53.3% 53.4% 53.6% 53.7% 53.8%
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Party ID Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Dem 47.78 38.0% 91.0% 8.0% 1.0% Rep 44.01 35.0% 8.0% 91.0% 1.0% Ind 33.95 27.0% 56.0% 43.0% 1.0%
Share Total 100.0% 52.5% 46.5% 1.0% Votes 125.74 125.74 66.01 58.47 1.26 Kerry Share of Democrats Democratic 86.0% 87.0% 88.0% 89.0% 90.0% 91.0% 92.0%
Party ID Kerry vote share
35% 48.0% 48.4% 48.7% 49.1% 49.4% 49.8% 50.1%36% 48.9% 49.2% 49.6% 50.0% 50.3% 50.7% 51.0%37% 49.7% 50.1% 50.5% 50.9% 51.2% 51.6% 52.0%38% 50.6% 51.0% 51.4% 51.7% 52.1% 52.5% 52.9%39% 51.5% 51.9% 52.2% 52.6% 53.0% 53.4% 53.8%40% 52.3% 52.7% 53.1% 53.5% 53.9% 54.3% 54.7% Kerry share of Democrats 88.0% 89.0% 90.0% 91.0% 92.0% 93.0% 94.0%
Independents Kerry vote share
49% 49.5% 49.9% 50.2% 50.6% 51.0% 51.4% 51.8%50% 49.7% 50.1% 50.5% 50.9% 51.3% 51.6% 52.0%51% 50.0% 50.4% 50.8% 51.2% 51.5% 51.9% 52.3%52% 50.3% 50.7% 51.0% 51.4% 51.8% 52.2% 52.6%53% 50.6% 50.9% 51.3% 51.7% 52.1% 52.5% 52.8%54% 50.8% 51.2% 51.6% 52.0% 52.3% 52.7% 53.1%
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Region Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other East 27.66 22.0% 59.0% 40.0% 1.0% Midwest 32.69 26.0% 52.0% 47.0% 1.0%
South 38.98 31.0% 46.0% 53.0% 1.0% West 26.41 21.0% 56.0% 43.0% 1.0% Share Total 100.0% 52.5% 46.5% 1.0% Votes 125.74 125.74 66.04 58.44 1.26 Kerry share of East 56.0% 57.0% 58.0% 59.0% 60.0% 61.0% 62.0%
Midwest Kerry vote share
48% 50.8% 51.0% 51.3% 51.5% 51.7% 51.9% 52.1%49% 51.1% 51.3% 51.5% 51.7% 52.0% 52.2% 52.4%50% 51.3% 51.6% 51.8% 52.0% 52.2% 52.4% 52.7%51% 51.6% 51.8% 52.0% 52.3% 52.5% 52.7% 52.9%52% 51.9% 52.1% 52.3% 52.5% 52.7% 53.0% 53.2%53% 52.1% 52.3% 52.6% 52.8% 53.0% 53.2% 53.4%54% 52.4% 52.6% 52.8% 53.0% 53.3% 53.5% 53.7%
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Education Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other No High School 5.03 4.0% 51.0% 48.0% 1.0% High School 27.66 22.0% 53.0% 46.0% 1.0% Some College 38.98 31.0% 50.0% 49.0% 1.0% College Grad 32.69 26.0% 51.0% 48.0% 1.0% Post Grad 21.38 17.0% 59.0% 40.0% 1.0% Share Total 100.0% 52.5% 46.5% 1.0% Votes 125.74 125.74 66.00 58.48 1.26 Kerry share of High School Graduates College 47.0% 48.0% 49.0% 50.0% 51.0% 52.0% 53.0%
Grads Kerry vote share
46% 49.9% 50.1% 50.3% 50.5% 50.8% 51.0% 51.2%47% 50.1% 50.4% 50.6% 50.8% 51.0% 51.2% 51.5%48% 50.4% 50.6% 50.8% 51.1% 51.3% 51.5% 51.7%49% 50.7% 50.9% 51.1% 51.3% 51.5% 51.8% 52.0%50% 50.9% 51.1% 51.4% 51.6% 51.8% 52.0% 52.2%51% 51.2% 51.4% 51.6% 51.8% 52.0% 52.3% 52.5%52% 51.4% 51.7% 51.9% 52.1% 52.3% 52.5% 52.8%53% 51.7% 51.9% 52.1% 52.4% 52.6% 52.8% 53.0%
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Age Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other 18-29 21.38 17.0% 60.0% 39.0% 1.0% 30-44 36.46 29.0% 50.0% 49.0% 1.0% 45-59 37.72 30.0% 54.0% 45.0% 1.0% 60+ 30.18 24.0% 48.0% 51.0% 1.0% Share Total 100.0% 52.4% 46.6% 1.0% Votes 125.74 125.74 65.91 58.57 1.26 Kerry share of 18-29 Age Group 45-59 54.0% 55.0% 56.0% 57.0% 58.0% 59.0% 60.0%
Age Group Kerry vote share
48% 49.6% 49.8% 49.9% 50.1% 50.3% 50.5% 50.6%49% 49.9% 50.1% 50.2% 50.4% 50.6% 50.8% 50.9%50% 50.2% 50.4% 50.5% 50.7% 50.9% 51.1% 51.2%51% 50.5% 50.7% 50.8% 51.0% 51.18% 51.4% 51.5%52% 50.8% 51.0% 51.1% 51.3% 51.5% 51.7% 51.8%53% 51.1% 51.3% 51.4% 51.6% 51.8% 52.0% 52.1%54% 51.4% 51.6% 51.7% 51.9% 52.1% 52.3% 52.4%
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Income Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other 0-15K 11.32 9.0% 67.0% 32.0% 1.0% 15-30 18.86 15.0% 61.0% 38.0% 1.0% 30-50 27.66 22.0% 54.0% 45.0% 1.0% 50-75 28.92 23.0% 47.0% 52.0% 1.0% 75-100 16.35 13.0% 49.0% 50.0% 1.0% 100-150 13.83 11.0% 48.0% 51.0% 1.0% 150-200 5.03 4.0% 45.0% 54.0% 1.0% 200+ 3.77 3.0% 40.0% 59.0% 1.0% Share Total 100.0% 52.5% 46.5% 1.0% Votes 125.74 125.74 66.04 58.44 1.26 Kerry share of 30-50k Income 75-100k 50.0% 51.0% 52.0% 53.0% 54.0% 55.0% 56.0%
Income Kerry vote share
45% 51.1% 51.3% 51.6% 51.8% 52.0% 52.2% 52.4%46% 51.3% 51.5% 51.7% 51.9% 52.1% 52.4% 52.6%47% 51.4% 51.6% 51.8% 52.0% 52.3% 52.5% 52.7%48% 51.5% 51.7% 52.0% 52.2% 52.4% 52.6% 52.8%49% 51.6% 51.9% 52.1% 52.3% 52.5% 52.7% 53.0%50% 51.8% 52.0% 52.2% 52.4% 52.7% 52.9% 53.1%51% 51.9% 52.1% 52.3% 52.6% 52.8% 53.0% 53.2%52% 52.0% 52.3% 52.5% 52.7% 52.9% 53.1% 53.4%
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Ideology Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Liberal 27.66 22.0% 91.0% 8.0% 1.0% Moderate 56.58 45.0% 59.0% 40.0% 1.0% Conservative 41.49 33.0% 18.0% 81.0% 1.0% Share Total 100.0% 52.5% 46.5% 1.0% Votes 125.74 125.74 66.03 58.46 1.26 Kerry share of LiberalsModerates 85.0% 86.0% 87.0% 88.0% 89.0% 90.0% 91.0%
Kerry vote share
54% 48.9% 49.2% 49.4% 49.6% 49.8% 50.0% 50.3%55% 49.4% 49.6% 49.8% 50.1% 50.3% 50.5% 50.7%56% 49.8% 50.1% 50.3% 50.5% 50.7% 50.9% 51.2%57% 50.3% 50.5% 50.7% 51.0% 51.2% 51.4% 51.6%58% 50.7% 51.0% 51.2% 51.4% 51.6% 51.8% 52.1%59% 51.2% 51.4% 51.6% 51.9% 52.1% 52.3% 52.5%
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Religion Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Protestant 66.64 53.0% 44.0% 55.0% 1.0% Catholic 33.95 27.0% 52.0% 47.0% 1.0% Jewish 3.77 3.0% 79.0% 20.0% 1.0% Other 8.80 7.0% 78.0% 21.0% 1.0% None 12.57 10.0% 73.0% 26.0% 1.0% Share Total 100.0% 52.5% 46.5% 1.0% Votes 125.74 125.74 66.00 58.48 1.26 Kerry share of Catholics 47.0% 48.0% 49.0% 50.0% 51.0% 52.0% 53.0%
Protestants Kerry vote share
40% 49.0% 49.3% 49.6% 49.8% 50.1% 50.4% 50.6%41% 49.6% 49.8% 50.1% 50.4% 50.6% 50.9% 51.2%42% 50.1% 50.4% 50.6% 50.9% 51.2% 51.4% 51.7%43% 50.6% 50.9% 51.2% 51.4% 51.7% 52.0% 52.2%44% 51.1% 51.4% 51.7% 52.0% 52.2% 52.5% 52.8%45% 51.7% 51.9% 52.2% 52.5% 52.8% 53.0% 53.3%46% 52.2% 52.5% 52.7% 53.0% 53.3% 53.6% 53.8%47% 52.7% 53.0% 53.3% 53.5% 53.8% 54.1% 54.4%
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Served in Military Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Yes 22.63 18.0% 46.0% 53.0% 1.0% No 103.11 82.0% 54.0% 45.0% 1.0% Share Total 100.0% 52.6% 46.4% 1.0% Votes 125.74 125.74 66.09 58.39 1.26 Kerry share of Did not serve 50.0% 51.0% 52.0% 53.0% 54.0% 55.0% 56.0%
Served Kerry vote share
41% 48.4% 49.2% 50.0% 50.8% 51.7% 52.5% 53.3%42% 48.6% 49.4% 50.2% 51.0% 51.8% 52.7% 53.5%43% 48.7% 49.6% 50.4% 51.2% 52.0% 52.8% 53.7%44% 48.9% 49.7% 50.6% 51.4% 52.2% 53.0% 53.8%45% 49.1% 49.9% 50.7% 51.6% 52.4% 53.2% 54.0%
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When Decided to Vote Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Today 7.54 6.0% 66.0% 33.0% 1.0% 3days 3.77 3.0% 66.0% 33.0% 1.0% 7days 2.51 2.0% 50.0% 49.0% 1.0% 30days 12.57 10.0% 61.0% 38.0% 1.0% Over30 99.33 79.0% 50.0% 49.0% 1.0% Share Total 100.0% 52.5% 46.5% 1.0% Votes 125.74 125.74 66.06 58.42 1.26 Kerry share of Voters who decided on Election Day decided 54.0% 56.0% 58.0% 61.0% 63.0% 65.0% 66.0%
30+ days Kerry vote share
48% 50.2% 50.4% 50.5% 50.7% 50.8% 50.9% 51.0%49% 51.0% 51.2% 51.3% 51.5% 51.6% 51.7% 51.8%50% 51.8% 51.9% 52.1% 52.2% 52.4% 52.5% 52.5%51% 52.6% 52.7% 52.9% 53.0% 53.2% 53.3% 53.3%52% 53.4% 53.5% 53.6% 53.8% 53.9% 54.1% 54.1%53% 54.2% 54.3% 54.4% 54.6% 54.7% 54.9% 54.9%54% 55.0% 55.1% 55.2% 55.4% 55.5% 55.6% 55.7%55% 55.8% 55.9% 56.0% 56.2% 56.3% 56.4% 56.5%
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