May 4, 2009
The True Vote Election Calculator is an Excel model designed to determine the true state and national popular and electoral vote. The premise is that the recorded votes never reflect the True Vote. In every election, millions of votes are uncounted. In addition, voting machines and central tabulators can be manipulated to produce unverifiable, bogus vote counts.
The first step in calculating the True Vote is to determine the number of votes cast in the prior election. The Census provides the net uncounted votes for each state. If total votes cast exceed total votes recorded, there are more uncounted ballots than “stuffed”. If total votes recorded exceed votes cast, there are more “stuffed” than uncounted ballots. In 1988, there were 10 million net uncounted votes; in 2004, 3.44 million.
In New York State, there were 307,000 net uncounted votes. There could have been 407,000 uncounted and 100,000 stuffed; we don’t have the detail. In Florida there were 238,000 net stuffed votes. In Ohio, 136,000 net stuffed. The majority (70-80%) of uncounted votes are Democratic (primarily in minority districts). There is substantial evidence that the majority of stuffed votes are Republican (see Ohio 2004). When uncounted votes are added back, the Democratic vote share increases.
Approximately 5% of voters pass on during the 4-year interval between elections. Historically, there has been a 90-98% turnout of living prior election voters in the current election. Given these estimates, we can approximate the number of returning voters from the prior election. The number of new voters (and others who did not vote in the prior election) is the difference between total votes cast and returning voters.
Once we have determined a feasible returning voter mix, we can calculate the True vote by applying National Exit Poll (or user entered) vote shares of returning and new voters. Since vote shares vary in each state; it would not be accurate to use the national share. The model calculates the state vote shares based on the ratio of the recorded state vote share to the national share.
Since it is standard operating procedure for the National Exit Poll (NEP) to match the recorded vote, the implicit assumption is that elections are fraud-free. In order to do the match, preliminary exit poll data (weights and vote shares) must be changed for each demographic category. In both elections, the Final NEP mix of returning voters indicated that there were millions more returning Bush 2000 voters in 2004 and returning Bush 2004 voters in 2008 than were alive. Unadjusted 2008 state and national exit polls have not been released.
For example, in 2004 the Final NEP indicated that 43% (52.6 million) of the 122 million who voted in 2004 were returning Bush 2000 voters. But Bush only had 50.5 million votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million died. If all living Bush 2000 voters came to the polls in 2004, simple arithmetic shows that a maximum of 48 million could have voted. Therefore, at least 4.5 million returning Bush voters were phantoms. The fact that the returning voter mix (i.e. the weights) in both the 2004 and 2008 NEP was impossible indicates that the recorded votes were also impossible – in other words, there was massive fraud.
2008
Obama won the recorded vote by 9.5m (52.9-45.5%) with
365 EV.
The Final National Exit Poll was forced to match the
recorded vote.
Unadjusted 2008 state and national exit polls have not
been released.
Assumption: 75% of uncounted 2004 votes were for Kerry.
Calculate a feasible returning voter mix.
Consider two scenarios for 2004 returning voters.
Scenario 1: Kerry won the True Vote by the state aggregate unadjusted exit poll (52-47%).
Obama had a 57.2% share and won by 21m votes
(75.6-54.5m).
He had 414 electoral votes.
Scenario 2:
Bush won by his recorded share of 50.7-48.3%.
Obama had 54.9% and won by 15m votes (72.6-57.6m).
He had 408 electoral votes.
2004
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0m (50.7-48.3%) with
286 EV.
The Final National Exit Poll was forced to match the
recorded vote.
Assumption: 75% of uncounted 2000 votes were for Gore.
Calculate a feasible returning voter mix.
Consider two scenarios based on Preliminary and Final
2004 NEP vote shares
Scenario 1: 12:22am NEP vote shares
Kerry had 53.1% and won by 9.5m votes (66.8-57.3) with
359 electoral votes.
Scenario 2: Final NEP vote shares
Kerry had 52.0% and won by 5.5m votes (65.4-59.9) with
327 electoral votes.
(Coincidence:
Kerry’s 51.98% share exactly matched the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate
share)
The model calculates revised vote shares
for each state.
For 2004, unadjusted exit poll shares are used; for 2008,
recorded vote shares
Let R = the ratio of the state unadjusted exit poll share to
the national share.
New York: 2004
R = 0.645 / 0.520 =
1.24
Calculate Kerry’s NY vote shares based on the National Exit
Poll shares:
DNV = 70.7% = R * (NEP DNV) = 1.24 * .57
Dem = 93.2% = (NEP
Dem) + (1- NEP DEM) * (R-1) = .91 + .09 * 0.24
Bush = 12.4% = (NEP Bush) + (NEP Bush) * (R-1) = .10 + .10
* 0.24
Other = 79.4% = R * (NEP Other) = R * .64 =1.24*.64
The Final National Exit Poll is always forced to match the recorded vote. The implicit assumption is a fraud-free election. To match the vote, the unadjusted exit poll weighting mix and/or vote shares are revised. However, if the adjustments are mathematically impossible, as they were in 2004 and 2008, that is a tell-tale sign of fraud. The Final NEP indicated that there were millions more returning Bush in 2004 and 2008 voters than were alive. The 43/47% Bush/Gore returning voter mix in the 2004 NEP and the 46/37% Bush/Kerry mix in 2008 are giveaways. The True Vote model determined a feasible return voter mix for both elections. The result is proof beyond a reasonable doubt that Kerry won by close to10 million and Obama won by over 20 million.
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National Exit Poll |
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2004
PRELIMINARY |
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2004 FINAL |
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2008 FINAL |
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12:22am (13047) |
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13660
sample |
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17836 sample |
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VOTED IN
2000 |
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2000 |
Mix |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
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Mix |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
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2004 |
Mix |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
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DNV |
17% |
57% |
41% |
2% |
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17% |
54% |
45% |
1% |
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DNV |
13% |
71% |
27% |
2% |
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Gore |
39% |
91% |
8% |
1% |
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37% |
90% |
10% |
0% |
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Kerry |
37% |
89% |
10% |
1% |
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Bush |
41% |
10% |
90% |
0% |
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43% |
9% |
91% |
0% |
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Bush |
46% |
17% |
82% |
1% |
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Other |
3% |
64% |
17% |
19% |
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3% |
71% |
21% |
8% |
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Other |
4% |
66% |
24% |
10% |
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Share |
100% |
51.20% |
47.50% |
1.30% |
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100% |
48.48% |
51.11% |
0.41% |
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100% |
52.62% |
45.94% |
1.44% |
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Votes |
122.3 |
62.62 |
58.09 |
1.59 |
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122.3 |
59.29 |
62.5 |
0.5 |
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131.37 |
69.13 |
60.35 |
1.89 |
The 2004 Election Calculator Model is based on the physical
constraints of the 2000 recorded vote, after adjusting for mortality, uncounted
votes and 2000 voter turnout in 2004. Vote shares are based on the 2004
National Exit Poll “Voted 2000” cross tab. The model indicates that Kerry won
by 53.2-45.4% (66.9-57.1m). It proves that for Bush to obtain his 3.0m
vote margin, he needed 21.5% of returning Gore voters!
Matching the 2004 Recorded vote
An impossible 86.1% Gore / 107.6% Bush
turnout of 2000 election voters was required to match the recorded vote. The match resulted in 236 electoral votes
for Kerry. He had 252.
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Turnout
of Prior |
Uncounted share |
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Enter
2004 or 2008 |
Cast |
Recorded |
Unctd |
Unctd Rate |
Mortality |
Dem |
Rep |
Dem |
Bush |
Other |
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Election |
2004 |
125,737 |
122,294 |
3,443 |
2.74% |
4.88% |
86.07% |
107.64% |
75% |
24% |
1% |
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2000 |
110,825 |
105,417 |
5,408 |
4.88% |
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National |
Kerry
Electoral Vote: 236 |
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Voted2k |
Mix |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Total |
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DNV |
18.8% |
54.0% |
45.0% |
1.0% |
12,754 |
10,628 |
236 |
23,618 |
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Gore |
36.0% |
90.0% |
10.0% |
0.0% |
40,769 |
4,530 |
0 |
45,299 |
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Bush |
42.2% |
9.0% |
91.0% |
0.0% |
4,777 |
48,304 |
0 |
53,081 |
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Other |
3.0% |
64.0% |
8.7% |
27.3% |
2,393 |
325 |
1,021 |
3,739 |
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True
Vote |
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48.27% |
50.73% |
1.00% |
60,693 |
63,787 |
1,257 |
125,737 |
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Recorded |
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48.27% |
50.73% |
1.00% |
59,028 |
62,041 |
1,224 |
122,294 |
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Deviation |
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0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
1,665 |
1,746 |
32 |
3,443 |
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2004 |
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Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Total |
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Recorded
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48.27% |
50.73% |
1.00% |
59,028 |
62,041 |
1,224 |
122,294 |
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Exit
Poll (WPE) |
51.98% |
47.02% |
1.00% |
63,569 |
57,500 |
1,224 |
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Deviation |
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-3.71% |
3.71% |
0.00% |
-4,541 |
4,541 |
0 |
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Matching the 2008 Recorded vote
Scenario 1: Kerry won by 52-47% in
2004.
An impossible 83.9% Kerry / 111.5% Bush
turnout of 2004 election voters was required to match the recorded vote.
Scenario 2: Bush won by 50.7-48.3% in
2004.
An impossible 86.9% Kerry / 102.4% Bush
turnout of 2004 election voters was required to match the recorded vote.
Both matches resulted in 364 electoral
votes for Obama. He had 365.
Scenario 1: Kerry won by 52-47% in
2004.
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‘04 exit poll |
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Turnout
of Prior |
Uncounted share |
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Enter
2004 or 2008 |
Cast |
Recorded |
Unctd |
Unctd Rate |
Mortality |
Dem |
Rep |
Dem |
Bush |
Other |
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Election |
2008 |
132,608 |
131,370 |
1,238 |
0.93% |
4.88% |
83.88% |
111.51% |
75% |
24% |
1% |
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2004 |
125,737 |
122,294 |
3,443 |
2.74% |
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National |
Obama
Electoral Vote: 364 |
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Voted04 |
Mix |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Total |
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DNV |
12.0% |
71.0% |
27.0% |
2.0% |
11,260 |
4,282 |
317 |
15,859 |
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Kerry |
40.2% |
89.0% |
9.0% |
2.0% |
47,363 |
4,789 |
1,064 |
53,217 |
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Bush |
46.9% |
17.0% |
82.0% |
1.0% |
10,549 |
50,882 |
621 |
62,052 |
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Other |
0.9% |
66.0% |
24.0% |
10.0% |
779 |
283 |
118 |
1,180 |
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True
Vote |
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52.87% |
45.53% |
1.60% |
69,951 |
60,237 |
2,120 |
132,308 |
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Recorded |
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52.87% |
45.62% |
1.51% |
69,457 |
59,935 |
1,978 |
131,370 |
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Deviation |
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0.00% |
-0.10% |
0.10% |
494 |
301 |
142 |
938 |
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2004 |
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Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Total |
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Recorded
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48.27% |
50.73% |
1.00% |
59,028 |
66,645 |
1,315 |
122,294 |
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Exit
Poll (WPE) |
51.98% |
47.02% |
1.00% |
63,569 |
57,500 |
1,224 |
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Deviation |
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-3.71% |
3.71% |
0.00% |
-4,541 |
9,145 |
91 |
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Scenario 2: Bush won by 50.7-48.3% in
2004.
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Recorded ’04 vote |
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Turnout
of Prior |
Uncounted share |
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Enter
2004 or 2008 |
Cast |
Recorded |
Unctd |
Unctd Rate |
Mortality |
Dem |
Rep |
Dem |
Bush |
Other |
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Election |
2008 |
132,608 |
131,370 |
1,238 |
0.93% |
4.88% |
86.86% |
102.44% |
75% |
24% |
1% |
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2004 |
125,737 |
122,294 |
3,443 |
2.74% |
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National |
Obama
Electoral Vote: 364 |
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Voted04 |
Mix |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Total |
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DNV |
13.9% |
71.0% |
27.0% |
2.0% |
13,022 |
4,952 |
367 |
18,341 |
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Kerry |
38.8% |
89.0% |
9.0% |
2.0% |
45,707 |
4,622 |
1,027 |
51,356 |
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Bush |
46.4% |
17.0% |
82.0% |
1.0% |
10,444 |
50,373 |
614 |
61,431 |
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Other |
0.9% |
66.0% |
24.0% |
10.0% |
779 |
283 |
118 |
1,180 |
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True
Vote |
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52.87% |
45.52% |
1.61% |
69,951 |
60,230 |
2,126 |
132,308 |
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Recorded |
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52.87% |
45.62% |
1.51% |
69,457 |
59,935 |
1,978 |
131,370 |
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Deviation |
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0.00% |
-0.10% |
0.10% |
494 |
295 |
149 |
938 |
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2004 |
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Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Total |
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Recorded
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48.27% |
50.73% |
1.00% |
59,028 |
66,645 |
1,315 |
122,294 |
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Exit
Poll (WPE) |
51.98% |
47.02% |
1.00% |
63,569 |
57,500 |
1,224 |
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Deviation |
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-3.71% |
3.71% |
0.00% |
-4,541 |
9,145 |
91 |
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Kerry wins by 9.5 million
votes with a 53.1% share and 359 EV
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Kerry % |
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Kerry
Electoral Vote |
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Bush |
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Kerry share of returning Gore voters |
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359 |
89% |
90% |
91% |
92% |
93% |
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12% |
349 |
359 |
382 |
404 |
404 |
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11% |
327 |
349 |
368 |
393 |
404 |
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10% |
327 |
327 |
359 |
368 |
398 |
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9% |
327 |
327 |
327 |
359 |
376 |
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8% |
327 |
327 |
327 |
327 |
368 |
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Turnout
of Prior |
Uncounted share |
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Enter
2004 or 2008 |
Cast |
Recorded |
Unctd |
Unctd Rate |
Mortality |
Dem |
Rep |
Dem |
Bush |
Other |
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Election |
2004 |
125,737 |
122,294 |
3,443 |
2.74% |
4.88% |
98.0% |
98.0% |
75% |
24% |
1% |
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2000 |
110,825 |
105,417 |
5,408 |
4.88% |
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National |
Kerry
Electoral Vote: 359 |
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2004 Est |
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Voted2k |
Mix |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Total |
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Kerry |
Other |
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DNV |
17.6% |
57.0% |
41.0% |
2.0% |
12,593 |
9,058 |
442 |
22,093 |
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DNV |
57% |
2% |
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Gore |
41.0% |
91.0% |
8.0% |
1.0% |
46,935 |
4,126 |
516 |
51,577 |
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Gore |
91% |
1% |
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Bush |
38.4% |
10.0% |
90.0% |
0.0% |
4,833 |
43,495 |
0 |
48,328 |
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Bush |
10% |
0% |
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Other |
3.0% |
64.0% |
17.0% |
19.0% |
2,393 |
636 |
710 |
3,739 |
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Other |
64% |
19% |
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True
Vote |
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53.09% |
45.58% |
1.33% |
66,754 |
57,315 |
1,668 |
125,737 |
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Recorded |
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48.27% |
50.73% |
1.00% |
59,028 |
62,041 |
1,224 |
122,294 |
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2008 Est |
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Deviation |
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4.82% |
-5.15% |
0.33% |
7,726 |
-4,726 |
444 |
3,443 |
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Obama |
Other |
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DNV |
71.0% |
2.0% |
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2004 |
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Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Total |
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Kerry |
89.0% |
2.0% |
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Recorded
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48.27% |
50.73% |
1.00% |
59,028 |
62,041 |
1,224 |
122,294 |
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Bush |
17.0% |
1.0% |
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Exit
Poll (WPE) |
51.98% |
47.02% |
1.00% |
63,569 |
57,500 |
1,224 |
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Other |
66.0% |
10.0% |
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Deviation |
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-3.71% |
3.71% |
0.00% |
-4,541 |
4,541 |
0 |
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Obama wins by 21.1 million
votes with a 57.2% share and 414 EV
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Obama % |
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Obama
Electoral Vote |
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Bush |
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Obama share of returning Kerry voters |
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414 |
87% |
88% |
89% |
90% |
91% |
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19% |
414 |
414 |
414 |
454 |
465 |
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18% |
414 |
414 |
414 |
420 |
465 |
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17% |
403 |
414 |
414 |
414 |
454 |
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16% |
403 |
403 |
414 |
414 |
414 |
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15% |
388 |
403 |
403 |
414 |
414 |
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Enter
2004 or 2008 |
Cast |
Recorded |
Unctd |
Unctd Rate |
Mortality |
Dem |
Rep |
Dem |
Bush |
Other |
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Election |
2008 |
132,608 |
131,370 |
1,238 |
0.93% |
4.88% |
98.0% |
98.0% |
75% |
24% |
1% |
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2004 |
125,737 |
122,294 |
3,443 |
2.74% |
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National |
Obama
Electoral Vote: 414 |
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2004 Est |
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Voted04 |
Mix |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Total |
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Kerry |
Other |
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DNV |
10.9% |
71.0% |
27.0% |
2.0% |
10,237 |
3,893 |
288 |
14,419 |
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DNV |
57% |
2% |
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Kerry |
47.0% |
89.0% |
9.0% |
2.0% |
55,336 |
5,596 |
1,244 |
62,175 |
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Gore |
91% |
1% |
|
Bush |
41.2% |
17.0% |
82.0% |
1.0% |
9,271 |
44,717 |
545 |
54,534 |
|
Bush |
10% |
0% |
|
Other |
0.9% |
66.0% |
24.0% |
10.0% |
779 |
283 |
118 |
1,180 |
|
Other |
64% |
19% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
True
Vote |
|
57.16% |
41.18% |
1.66% |
75,624 |
54,489 |
2,195 |
132,308 |
|
|
|
|
|
Recorded |
|
52.87% |
45.62% |
1.51% |
69,457 |
59,935 |
1,978 |
131,370 |
|
|
2008 Est |
|
|
Deviation |
|
4.29% |
-4.44% |
0.15% |
6,166 |
-5,446 |
218 |
938 |
|
|
Obama |
Other |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DNV |
71.0% |
2.0% |
|
2004 |
|
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Total |
|
Kerry |
89.0% |
2.0% |
|
Recorded
|
|
48.27% |
50.73% |
1.00% |
59,028 |
66,645 |
1,315 |
122,294 |
|
Bush |
17.0% |
1.0% |
|
Exit
Poll (WPE) |
51.98% |
47.02% |
1.00% |
63,569 |
57,500 |
1,224 |
|
|
Other |
66.0% |
10.0% |
|
|
Deviation |
|
-3.71% |
3.71% |
0.00% |
-4,541 |
9,145 |
91 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sensitivity
Analysis |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obama % |
|
Obama
National Vote Share |
|
|
Obama % |
|
Obama
National Vote Share |
|
||||
|
Bush |
|
Obama share of returning Kerry voters |
|
DNV |
|
Obama share of returning Kerry voters |
||||||
|
57.2% |
87.0% |
88.0% |
89.0% |
90.0% |
91.0% |
|
57.2% |
87.0% |
88.0% |
89.0% |
90.0% |
91.0% |
|
19.0% |
57.0% |
57.5% |
58.0% |
58.5% |
58.9% |
|
73.0% |
56.4% |
56.9% |
57.4% |
57.8% |
58.3% |
|
18.0% |
56.6% |
57.1% |
57.6% |
58.0% |
58.5% |
|
72.0% |
56.3% |
56.8% |
57.3% |
57.7% |
58.2% |
|
17.0% |
56.2% |
56.7% |
57.16% |
57.6% |
58.1% |
|
71.0% |
56.2% |
56.7% |
57.16% |
57.6% |
58.1% |
|
16.0% |
55.8% |
56.3% |
56.7% |
57.2% |
57.7% |
|
70.0% |
56.1% |
56.6% |
57.0% |
57.5% |
58.0% |
|
15.0% |
55.4% |
55.9% |
56.3% |
56.8% |
57.3% |
|
69.0% |
56.0% |
56.5% |
56.9% |
57.4% |
57.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Kerry’s 53.1% National
True Vote share was within 1.1% of the Unadjusted Aggregate State Exit Poll
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2004 |
Kerry 1222am NEP-adjusted share of |
Kerry |
Kerry |
Kerry |
Diff 1 |
Diff 2 |
Absolute |
|||
|
Kerry |
Gore |
Bush |
Other |
DNV |
True Vote |
Recorded |
Exit |
True-Exit |
True-Rec |
Diff 1< 2.0% |
|
Share |
91% |
10% |
64% |
57% |
53.08% |
48.27% |
51.98% |
1.10% |
4.81% |
26 |
|
Total |
47,022 |
4,721 |
2,436 |
12,559 |
66,737 |
59,028 |
63,569 |
3,168 |
7,709 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AL |
89.2% |
8.0% |
57.0% |
48.6% |
46.8% |
36.8% |
41.8% |
4.99% |
9.99% |
|
|
AK |
89.0% |
7.7% |
55.8% |
47.2% |
37.7% |
35.5% |
40.2% |
-2.42% |
2.23% |
|
|
AZ |
89.7% |
8.6% |
58.9% |
50.9% |
49.3% |
44.4% |
44.5% |
4.73% |
4.88% |
|
|
AR |
89.8% |
8.7% |
59.3% |
51.4% |
48.6% |
44.5% |
45.2% |
3.35% |
4.00% |
|
|
CA |
92.4% |
11.6% |
69.6% |
63.7% |
59.2% |
54.3% |
60.1% |
-0.92% |
4.88% |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CO |
90.7% |
9.6% |
62.7% |
55.4% |
49.4% |
47.0% |
50.1% |
-0.69% |
2.36% |
1 |
|
CT |
92.8% |
12.0% |
71.2% |
65.5% |
61.0% |
54.3% |
62.3% |
-1.27% |
6.73% |
1 |
|
DE |
92.6% |
11.8% |
70.5% |
64.7% |
59.9% |
53.3% |
61.3% |
-1.38% |
6.57% |
1 |
|
DC |
97.7% |
17.4% |
90.7% |
88.9% |
87.4% |
89.2% |
90.6% |
-3.22% |
-1.82% |
|
|
FL |
90.8% |
9.8% |
63.3% |
56.2% |
52.1% |
47.1% |
51.0% |
1.08% |
4.98% |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GA |
89.3% |
8.1% |
57.1% |
48.8% |
46.7% |
41.4% |
42.0% |
4.71% |
5.36% |
|
|
HI |
92.1% |
11.2% |
68.2% |
62.1% |
60.6% |
54.0% |
58.1% |
2.44% |
6.54% |
|
|
ID |
87.6% |
6.2% |
50.3% |
40.7% |
32.9% |
30.3% |
32.3% |
0.67% |
2.67% |
1 |
|
IL |
91.8% |
10.9% |
67.2% |
60.8% |
58.1% |
54.8% |
56.6% |
1.52% |
3.27% |
1 |
|
IN |
89.0% |
7.8% |
56.0% |
47.4% |
46.1% |
39.3% |
40.4% |
5.78% |
6.88% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
IA |
90.8% |
9.8% |
63.1% |
56.0% |
52.2% |
49.2% |
50.7% |
1.43% |
2.93% |
1 |
|
KS |
88.4% |
7.2% |
53.7% |
44.8% |
41.9% |
36.6% |
37.2% |
4.68% |
5.23% |
|
|
KY |
88.9% |
7.7% |
55.6% |
47.0% |
44.6% |
39.7% |
39.9% |
4.68% |
4.88% |
|
|
LA |
89.5% |
8.4% |
58.1% |
50.0% |
49.2% |
42.2% |
43.5% |
5.71% |
7.01% |
|
|
ME |
91.6% |
10.7% |
66.5% |
60.0% |
55.7% |
53.6% |
55.6% |
0.09% |
2.09% |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MD |
92.3% |
11.5% |
69.3% |
63.3% |
60.5% |
55.9% |
59.6% |
0.98% |
4.63% |
1 |
|
MA |
93.4% |
12.7% |
73.6% |
68.4% |
66.2% |
61.9% |
65.8% |
0.46% |
4.31% |
1 |
|
MI |
91.4% |
10.5% |
65.7% |
59.0% |
54.7% |
51.2% |
54.4% |
0.26% |
3.46% |
1 |
|
MN |
91.6% |
10.7% |
66.6% |
60.1% |
54.6% |
51.1% |
55.7% |
-1.06% |
3.54% |
1 |
|
MS |
90.6% |
9.5% |
62.2% |
54.9% |
49.0% |
39.8% |
49.4% |
-0.41% |
9.25% |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MO |
90.5% |
9.4% |
61.9% |
54.5% |
51.7% |
46.1% |
49.0% |
2.74% |
5.64% |
|
|
MT |
88.5% |
7.2% |
53.8% |
44.8% |
39.5% |
38.6% |
37.3% |
2.22% |
0.93% |
|
|
NE |
88.4% |
7.1% |
53.6% |
44.6% |
38.1% |
32.7% |
37.0% |
1.10% |
5.45% |
1 |
|
NV |
91.1% |
10.2% |
64.6% |
57.7% |
53.1% |
47.9% |
52.8% |
0.22% |
5.17% |
1 |
|
NH |
91.9% |
11.0% |
67.6% |
61.4% |
53.9% |
50.2% |
57.2% |
-3.37% |
3.64% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NJ |
92.0% |
11.1% |
67.8% |
61.5% |
59.6% |
52.9% |
57.5% |
2.12% |
6.67% |
|
|
NM |
91.2% |
10.2% |
64.7% |
57.9% |
54.2% |
49.0% |
53.0% |
1.19% |
5.19% |
1 |
|
NY |
93.2% |
12.4% |
72.7% |
67.3% |
64.5% |
58.4% |
64.5% |
0.06% |
6.16% |
1 |
|
NC |
90.6% |
9.5% |
62.3% |
55.0% |
47.8% |
43.6% |
49.5% |
-1.69% |
4.26% |
1 |
|
ND |
88.0% |
6.7% |
52.0% |
42.7% |
39.3% |
35.5% |
34.6% |
4.69% |
3.84% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
OH |
91.4% |
10.4% |
65.4% |
58.7% |
52.0% |
48.7% |
54.0% |
-2.03% |
3.27% |
|
|
OK |
87.9% |
6.5% |
51.4% |
42.0% |
42.4% |
34.4% |
33.8% |
8.52% |
7.92% |
|
|
OR |
91.2% |
10.2% |
64.7% |
57.8% |
53.3% |
51.3% |
53.0% |
0.34% |
1.99% |
1 |
|
PA |
91.5% |
10.6% |
66.2% |
59.6% |
54.7% |
50.9% |
55.1% |
-0.38% |
3.82% |
1 |
|
RI |
92.7% |
11.9% |
71.0% |
65.3% |
65.9% |
59.4% |
62.1% |
3.78% |
6.43% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SC |
89.9% |
8.8% |
59.7% |
51.8% |
49.0% |
40.9% |
45.8% |
3.24% |
8.09% |
|
|
SD |
88.2% |
6.9% |
52.9% |
43.7% |
39.6% |
38.4% |
35.9% |
3.70% |
1.15% |
|
|
TN |
89.5% |
8.3% |
57.9% |
49.7% |
48.7% |
42.5% |
43.2% |
5.52% |
6.17% |
|
|
TX |
89.3% |
8.1% |
57.1% |
48.8% |
43.8% |
38.2% |
42.0% |
1.80% |
5.60% |
1 |
|
UT |
86.9% |
5.4% |
47.5% |
37.3% |
33.6% |
26.0% |
28.1% |
5.41% |
7.56% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
VT |
93.5% |
12.8% |
74.1% |
69.0% |
60.3% |
58.9% |
66.5% |
-6.23% |
1.37% |
|
|
VA |
90.6% |
9.6% |
62.5% |
55.2% |
49.8% |
45.5% |
49.8% |
-0.08% |
4.27% |
1 |
|
WA |
91.8% |
10.9% |
67.4% |
61.0% |
55.8% |
52.8% |
56.8% |
-0.98% |
3.02% |
1 |
|
WV |
89.0% |
7.7% |
55.9% |
47.3% |
48.4% |
43.2% |
40.2% |
8.19% |
5.24% |
|
|
WI |
91.0% |
10.0% |
64.1% |
57.1% |
52.5% |
49.7% |
52.1% |
0.42% |
2.82% |
1 |
|
WY |
87.6% |
6.3% |
50.6% |
40.9% |
32.7% |
29.1% |
32.6% |
0.09% |
3.59% |
1 |
|
2008 |
Obama Final NEP-adjusted share of |
Obama |
Obama |
|
|
Diff |
|||
|
Obama |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
DNV |
True Vote |
Recorded |
|
|
True-Rec |
|
National |
89% |
17% |
66% |
71% |
57.11% |
52.87% |
|
|
4.24% |
|
Total |
55,477 |
9,044 |
787 |
10,255 |
75,563 |
69,457 |
|
|
6,106 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AL |
86.1% |
12.5% |
56.9% |
63.2% |
47.2% |
38.7% |
|
|
8.47% |
|
AK |
85.9% |
12.2% |
56.4% |
62.8% |
45.4% |
37.9% |
|
|
7.55% |
|
AZ |
87.3% |
14.4% |
60.9% |
66.6% |
51.2% |
44.9% |
|
|
6.33% |
|
AR |
86.1% |
12.5% |
57.0% |
63.3% |
48.4% |
38.9% |
|
|
9.50% |
|
CA |
90.7% |
19.6% |
71.2% |
75.4% |
64.9% |
61.0% |
|
|
3.96% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CO |
89.2% |
17.3% |
66.5% |
71.4% |
56.9% |
53.7% |
|
|
3.27% |
|
CT |
90.6% |
19.5% |
71.0% |
75.2% |
65.8% |
60.6% |
|
|
5.23% |
|
DE |
90.9% |
19.9% |
71.8% |
76.0% |
65.7% |
61.9% |
|
|
3.76% |
|
DC |
97.2% |
29.7% |
91.5% |
92.7% |
90.2% |
92.5% |
|
|
-2.22% |
|
FL |
88.6% |
16.4% |
64.7% |
69.9% |
56.2% |
50.9% |
|
|
5.30% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GA |
87.8% |
15.1% |
62.2% |
67.7% |
50.6% |
46.9% |
|
|
3.75% |
|
HI |
92.9% |
23.1% |
78.2% |
81.4% |
66.2% |
71.8% |
|
|
-5.67% |
|
ID |
85.5% |
11.6% |
55.1% |
61.7% |
40.2% |
36.0% |
|
|
4.26% |
|
IL |
90.9% |
19.9% |
71.8% |
76.0% |
62.1% |
61.9% |
|
|
0.20% |
|
IN |
88.4% |
16.0% |
64.1% |
69.4% |
50.0% |
49.9% |
|
|
0.05% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
IA |
89.2% |
17.3% |
66.7% |
71.6% |
55.8% |
53.9% |
|
|
1.87% |
|
KS |
86.6% |
13.4% |
58.7% |
64.8% |
43.7% |
41.6% |
|
|
2.12% |
|
KY |
86.6% |
13.2% |
58.5% |
64.6% |
45.3% |
41.1% |
|
|
4.11% |
|
LA |
86.3% |
12.8% |
57.7% |
63.9% |
47.1% |
39.9% |
|
|
7.20% |
|
ME |
90.0% |
18.6% |
69.1% |
73.7% |
60.2% |
57.7% |
|
|
2.54% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MD |
90.9% |
19.9% |
71.8% |
76.0% |
64.9% |
61.9% |
|
|
2.96% |
|
MA |
90.9% |
19.9% |
71.7% |
75.9% |
68.2% |
61.8% |
|
|
6.40% |
|
MI |
89.9% |
18.4% |
68.9% |
73.5% |
59.5% |
57.4% |
|
|
2.11% |
|
MN |
89.2% |
17.4% |
66.8% |
71.7% |
59.4% |
54.1% |
|
|
5.31% |
|
MS |
86.9% |
13.8% |
59.7% |
65.6% |
53.2% |
43.0% |
|
|
10.16% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MO |
88.2% |
15.8% |
63.7% |
69.0% |
53.9% |
49.3% |
|
|
4.65% |
|
MT |
87.8% |
15.2% |
62.3% |
67.9% |
47.3% |
47.2% |
|
|
0.15% |
|
NE |
86.7% |
13.4% |
58.8% |
64.8% |
43.7% |
41.6% |
|
|
2.15% |
|
NV |
89.5% |
17.7% |
67.5% |
72.2% |
59.6% |
55.1% |
|
|
4.50% |
|
NH |
89.3% |
17.4% |
66.8% |
71.7% |
60.5% |
54.1% |
|
|
6.40% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NJ |
89.9% |
18.4% |
68.8% |
73.3% |
61.8% |
57.2% |
|
|
4.60% |
|
NM |
89.8% |
18.3% |
68.6% |
73.2% |
59.3% |
56.9% |
|
|
2.36% |
|
NY |
91.1% |
20.2% |
72.4% |
76.4% |
67.6% |
62.8% |
|
|
4.85% |
|
NC |
88.3% |
16.0% |
64.0% |
69.3% |
56.4% |
49.7% |
|
|
6.68% |
|
ND |
87.3% |
14.3% |
60.6% |
66.4% |
42.9% |
44.5% |
|
|
-1.58% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
OH |
88.7% |
16.5% |
65.0% |
70.2% |
57.0% |
51.4% |
|
|
5.67% |
|
OK |
85.1% |
11.0% |
54.1% |
60.8% |
38.1% |
34.4% |
|
|
3.73% |
|
OR |
89.8% |
18.2% |
68.5% |
73.1% |
58.0% |
56.7% |
|
|
1.30% |
|
PA |
89.3% |
17.5% |
67.0% |
71.9% |
59.0% |
54.5% |
|
|
4.47% |
|
RI |
91.1% |
20.3% |
72.6% |
76.6% |
66.6% |
63.1% |
|
|
3.48% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SC |
87.3% |
14.4% |
60.9% |
66.6% |
52.7% |
44.9% |
|
|
7.80% |
|
SD |
87.3% |
14.4% |
60.8% |
66.5% |
43.0% |
44.7% |
|
|
-1.76% |
|
TN |
86.7% |
13.4% |
58.9% |
64.9% |
48.0% |
41.8% |
|
|
6.14% |
|
TX |
87.1% |
14.0% |
60.1% |
65.9% |
48.3% |
43.6% |
|
|
4.64% |
|
UT |
85.1% |
11.0% |
54.0% |
60.8% |
36.6% |
34.3% |
|
|
2.28% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
VT |
92.0% |
21.7% |
75.4% |
79.0% |
70.7% |
67.5% |
|
|
3.22% |
|
VA |
88.9% |
16.9% |
65.8% |
70.9% |
56.9% |
52.6% |
|
|
4.22% |
|
WA |
89.9% |
18.5% |
68.9% |
73.5% |
61.7% |
57.4% |
|
|
4.24% |
|
WV |
86.9% |
13.7% |
59.4% |
65.3% |
44.5% |
42.6% |
|
|
1.93% |
|
WI |
89.7% |
18.1% |
68.2% |
72.8% |
57.0% |
56.2% |
|
|
0.74% |
|
WY |
84.8% |
10.5% |
52.9% |
59.8% |
38.4% |
32.5% |
|
|
5.86% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NY |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2004 Est |
|
|
Voted04 |
Mix |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Total |
|
|
Kerry |
Other |
|
DNV |
7.1% |
76.4% |
21.6% |
2.0% |
417 |
118 |
11 |
546 |
|
DNV |
57% |
2% |
|
Kerry |
60.3% |
91.1% |
6.9% |
2.0% |
4,241 |
323 |
93 |
4,657 |
|
Gore |
91% |
1% |
|
Bush |
31.2% |
20.2% |
78.8% |
1.0% |
487 |
1,899 |
24 |
2,410 |
|
Bush |
10% |
0% |
|
Other |
1.4% |
72.4% |
17.6% |
10.0% |
79 |
19 |
11 |
109 |
|
Other |
64% |
19% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
True
Vote |
|
67.65% |
30.55% |
1.80% |
5,224 |
2,359 |
139 |
7,722 |
|
|
|
|
|
Recorded |
|
62.80% |
36.11% |
1.09% |
4,770 |
2,742 |
83 |
7,595 |
|
|
2008 Est |
|
|
Deviation |
|
4.85% |
-5.56% |
0.71% |
454 |
-383 |
56 |
127 |
|
|
Obama |
Other |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DNV |
71.0% |
2.0% |
|
2004 |
|
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Total |
|
Kerry |
89.0% |
2.0% |
|
Recorded
|
|
58.37% |
40.08% |
1.54% |
4,314 |
3,044 |
117 |
7,391 |
|
Bush |
17.0% |
1.0% |
|
Exit
Poll (WPE) |
64.47% |
33.98% |
1.54% |
4,765 |
2,512 |
114 |
|
|
Other |
66.0% |
10.0% |
|
|
Deviation |
|
-6.10% |
6.10% |
0.00% |
-451 |
533 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sensitivity
Analysis |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obama % |
|
Obama
NY Vote Share |
|
|
|
Obama % |
|
Obama
NY Vote Share |
|
|||
|
Bush |
|
Obama share of returning Kerry voters |
|
DNV |
|
Obama share of returning Kerry voters |
||||||
|
67.6% |
89.1% |
90.1% |
91.1% |
92.1% |
93.1% |
|
67.6% |
89.1% |
90.1% |
91.1% |
92.1% |
93.1% |
|
22.2% |
67.1% |
67.7% |
68.3% |
68.9% |
69.5% |
|
78.4% |
66.6% |
67.2% |
67.8% |
68.4% |
69.0% |
|
21.2% |
66.8% |
67.4% |
68.0% |
68.6% |
69.2% |
|
77.4% |
66.5% |
67.1% |
67.7% |
68.3% |
68.9% |
|
20.2% |
66.4% |
67.0% |
67.65% |
68.3% |
68.9% |
|
76.4% |
66.4% |
67.0% |
67.65% |
68.3% |
68.9% |
|
19.2% |
66.1% |
66.7% |
67.3% |
67.9% |
68.5% |
|
75.4% |
66.4% |
67.0% |
67.6% |
68.2% |
68.8% |
|
18.2% |
65.8% |
66.4% |
67.0% |
67.6% |
68.2% |
|
74.4% |
66.3% |
66.9% |
67.5% |
68.1% |
68.7% |
|
CA |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2004 Est |
|
|
Voted04 |
Mix |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Total |
|
|
Kerry |
Other |
|
DNV |
13.1% |
75.4% |
22.6% |
2.0% |
1,361 |
407 |
36 |
1,805 |
|
DNV |
57% |
2% |
|
Kerry |
52.6% |
90.7% |
7.3% |
2.0% |
6,556 |
529 |
145 |
7,230 |
|
Gore |
91% |
1% |
|
Bush |
33.1% |
19.6% |
79.4% |
1.0% |
892 |
3,614 |
46 |
4,551 |
|
Bush |
10% |
0% |
|
Other |
1.1% |
71.2% |
18.8% |
10.0% |
112 |
30 |
16 |
157 |
|
Other |
64% |
19% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
True
Vote |
|
64.92% |
33.32% |
1.76% |
8,922 |
4,580 |
242 |
13,743 |
|
|
|
|
|
Recorded |
|
60.95% |
36.92% |
2.13% |
8,274 |
5,012 |
289 |
13,576 |
|
|
2008 Est |
|
|
Deviation |
|
3.96% |
-3.59% |
-0.37% |
647 |
-432 |
-47 |
168 |
|
|
Obama |
Other |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DNV |
71.0% |
2.0% |
|
2004 |
|
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Total |
|
Kerry |
89.0% |
2.0% |
|
Recorded
|
|
54.31% |
44.36% |
1.32% |
6,745 |
6,023 |
180 |
12,420 |
|
Bush |
17.0% |
1.0% |
|
Exit
Poll (WPE) |
60.11% |
38.56% |
1.32% |
7,466 |
4,789 |
165 |
|
|
Other |
66.0% |
10.0% |
|
|
Deviation |
|
-5.80% |
5.80% |
0.00% |
-720 |
1,233 |
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sensitivity
Analysis |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obama % |
|
Obama
CA Vote Share |
|
|
|
Obama % |
|
Obama
CA Vote Share |
|
|||
|
Bush |
|
Obama share of returning Kerry voters |
|
DNV |
|
Obama share of returning Kerry voters |
||||||
|
64.9% |
88.7% |
89.7% |
90.7% |
91.7% |
92.7% |
|
64.9% |
88.7% |
89.7% |
90.7% |
91.7% |
92.7% |
|
21.6% |
64.5% |
65.1% |
65.6% |
66.1% |
66.6% |
|
77.4% |
64.1% |
64.7% |
65.2% |
65.7% |
66.2% |
|
20.6% |
64.2% |
64.7% |
65.2% |
65.8% |
66.3% |
|
76.4% |
64.0% |
64.5% |
65.0% |
65.6% |
66.1% |
|
19.6% |
63.9% |
64.4% |
64.92% |
65.4% |
66.0% |
|
75.4% |
63.9% |
64.4% |
64.92% |
65.4% |
66.0% |
|
18.6% |
63.5% |
64.1% |
64.6% |
65.1% |
65.6% |
|
74.4% |
63.7% |
64.3% |
64.8% |
65.3% |
65.8% |
|
17.6% |
63.2% |
63.7% |
64.3% |
64.8% |
65.3% |
|
73.4% |
63.6% |
64.1% |
64.7% |
65.2% |
65.7% |
|
FL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2004 Est |
|
|
Voted04 |
Mix |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Total |
|
|
Kerry |
Other |
|
DNV |
16.1% |
69.9% |
28.1% |
2.0% |
951 |
382 |
27 |
1,360 |
|
DNV |
57% |
2% |
|
Kerry |
42.8% |
88.6% |
9.4% |
2.0% |
3,205 |
340 |
72 |
3,617 |
|
Gore |
91% |
1% |
|
Bush |
40.4% |
16.4% |
82.6% |
1.0% |
560 |
2,825 |
34 |
3,419 |
|
Bush |
10% |
0% |
|
Other |
0.7% |
64.7% |
25.3% |
10.0% |
37 |
15 |
6 |
58 |
|
Other |
64% |
19% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
True
Vote |
|
56.22% |
42.13% |
1.65% |
4,753 |
3,562 |
139 |
8,454 |
|
|
|
|
|
Recorded |
|
50.91% |
48.10% |
0.98% |
4,282 |
4,046 |
83 |
8,410 |
|
|
2008 Est |
|
|
Deviation |
|
5.30% |
-5.97% |
0.67% |
471 |
-484 |
57 |
43 |
|
|
Obama |
Other |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DNV |
71.0% |
2.0% |
|
2004 |
|
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Total |
|
Kerry |
89.0% |
2.0% |
|
Recorded
|
|
47.09% |
52.10% |
0.81% |
3,584 |
4,382 |
68 |
7,610 |
|
Bush |
17.0% |
1.0% |
|
Exit
Poll (WPE) |
50.99% |
48.20% |
0.81% |
3,880 |
3,668 |
62 |
|
|
Other |
66.0% |
10.0% |
|
|
Deviation |
|
-3.90% |
3.90% |
0.00% |
-297 |
714 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sensitivity
Analysis |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obama % |
|
Obama
FL Vote Share |
|
|
|
Obama % |
|
Obama
FL Vote Share |
|
|||
|
Bush |
|
Obama share of returning Kerry voters |
|
DNV |
|
Obama share of returning Kerry voters |
||||||
|
56.2% |
86.6% |
87.6% |
88.6% |
89.6% |
90.6% |
|
56.2% |
86.6% |
87.6% |
88.6% |
89.6% |
90.6% |
|
18.4% |
56.2% |
56.6% |
57.0% |
57.5% |
57.9% |
|
71.9% |
55.7% |
56.1% |
56.5% |
57.0% |
57.4% |
|
17.4% |
55.8% |
56.2% |
56.6% |
57.1% |
57.5% |
|
70.9% |
55.5% |
56.0% |
56.4% |
56.8% |
57.2% |
|
16.4% |
55.4% |
55.8% |
56.22% |
56.6% |
57.1% |
|
69.9% |
55.4% |
55.8% |
56.22% |
56.6% |
57.1% |
|
15.4% |
55.0% |
55.4% |
55.8% |
56.2% |
56.7% |
|
68.9% |
55.2% |
55.6% |
56.1% |
56.5% |
56.9% |
|
14.4% |
54.6% |
55.0% |
55.4% |
55.8% |
56.3% |
|
67.9% |
55.0% |
55.5% |
55.9% |
56.3% |
56.8% |
|
FL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2004 Est |
|
|
Voted2k |
Mix |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Total |
|
|
Kerry |
Other |
|
DNV |
24.1% |
56.2% |
41.8% |
2.0% |
996 |
742 |
35 |
1,773 |
|
DNV |
57% |
2% |
|
Gore |
37.2% |
90.8% |
8.2% |
1.0% |
2,493 |
224 |
27 |
2,745 |
|
Gore |
91% |
1% |
|
Bush |
37.0% |
9.8% |
90.2% |
0.0% |
267 |
2,458 |
0 |
2,725 |
|
Bush |
10% |
0% |
|
Other |
1.8% |
63.3% |
17.7% |
19.0% |
82 |
23 |
25 |
129 |
|
Other |
64% |
19% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
True
Vote |
|
52.07% |
46.75% |
1.19% |
3,838 |
3,446 |
87 |
7,372 |
|
|
|
|
|
Recorded |
|
47.09% |
52.10% |
0.81% |
3,584 |
3,965 |
62 |
7,610 |
|
|
2008 Est |
|
|
Deviation |
|
4.98% |
-5.35% |
0.37% |
255 |
-518 |
26 |
-238 |
|
|
Obama |
Other |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DNV |
71.0% |
2.0% |
|
2004 |
|
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Total |
|
Kerry |
89.0% |
2.0% |
|
Recorded
|
|
47.09% |
52.10% |
0.81% |
3,584 |
3,965 |
62 |
7,610 |
|
Bush |
17.0% |
1.0% |
|
Exit
Poll (WPE) |
50.99% |
48.20% |
0.81% |
3,880 |
3,668 |
62 |
|
|
Other |
66.0% |
10.0% |
|
|
Deviation |
|
-3.90% |
3.90% |
0.00% |
-297 |
297 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sensitivity
Analysis |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Kerry % |
|
Kerry
FL Vote Share |
|
|
|
Kerry % |
|
Kerry
FL Vote Share |
|
|
||
|
Bush |
|
Kerry share of returning Gore voters |
|
DNV |
|
Kerry share of returning Gore voters |
||||||
|
52.1% |
88.8% |
89.8% |
90.8% |
91.8% |
92.8% |
|
52.1% |
88.8% |
89.8% |
90.8% |
91.8% |
92.8% |
|
11.8% |
52.1% |
52.4% |
52.8% |
53.2% |
53.6% |
|
58.2% |
51.8% |
52.2% |
52.5% |
52.9% |
53.3% |
|
10.8% |
51.7% |
52.1% |
52.4% |
52.8% |
53.2% |
|
57.2% |
51.6% |
51.9% |
52.3% |
52.7% |
53.1% |
|
9.8% |
51.3% |
51.7% |
52.07% |
52.4% |
52.8% |
|
56.2% |
51.3% |
51.7% |
52.07% |
52.4% |
52.8% |
|
8.8% |
51.0% |
51.3% |
51.7% |
52.1% |
52.4% |
|
55.2% |
51.1% |
51.5% |
51.8% |
52.2% |
52.6% |
|
7.8% |
50.6% |
51.0% |
51.3% |
51.7% |
52.1% |
|
54.2% |
50.8% |
51.2% |
51.6% |
52.0% |
52.3% |
|
OH |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2004 Est |
|
|
Voted2k |
Mix |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Total |
|
|
Kerry |
Other |
|
DNV |
18.0% |
58.7% |
39.3% |
2.0% |
580 |
389 |
20 |
989 |
|
DNV |
57% |
2% |
|
Gore |
38.7% |
91.4% |
7.6% |
1.0% |
1,937 |
162 |
21 |
2,120 |
|
Gore |
91% |
1% |
|
Bush |
40.4% |
10.4% |
89.6% |
0.0% |
230 |
1,988 |
0 |
2,218 |
|
Bush |
10% |
0% |
|
Other |
2.9% |
65.4% |
15.6% |
19.0% |
103 |
25 |
30 |
158 |
|
Other |
64% |
19% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
True
Vote |
|
51.97% |
46.73% |
1.29% |
2,851 |
2,563 |
71 |
5,485 |
|
|
|
|
|
Recorded |
|
48.71% |
50.81% |
0.48% |
2,741 |
2,860 |
27 |
5,628 |
|
|
2008 Est |
|
|
Deviation |
|
3.27% |
-4.08% |
0.81% |
110 |
-296 |
44 |
-143 |
|
|
Obama |
Other |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DNV |
71.0% |
2.0% |
|
2004 |
|
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Total |
|
Kerry |
89.0% |
2.0% |
|
Recorded
|
|
48.71% |
50.81% |
0.48% |
2,741 |
2,860 |
27 |
5,628 |
|
Bush |
17.0% |
1.0% |
|
Exit
Poll (WPE) |
54.01% |
45.51% |
0.48% |
3,039 |
2,561 |
27 |
|
|
Other |
66.0% |
10.0% |
|
|
Deviation |
|
-5.30% |
5.30% |
0.00% |
-298 |
298 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sensitivity
Analysis |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Kerry % |
|
Kerry
OH Vote Share |
|
|
|
Kerry % |
|
Kerry
OH Vote Share |
|
|
||
|
Bush |
|
Kerry share of returning Gore voters |
|
DNV |
|
Kerry share of returning Gore voters |
||||||
|
52.0% |
89.4% |
90.4% |
91.4% |
92.4% |
93.4% |
|
52.0% |
89.4% |
90.4% |
91.4% |
92.4% |
93.4% |
|
12.4% |
52.0% |
52.4% |
52.8% |
53.2% |
53.6% |
|
60.7% |
51.6% |
51.9% |
52.3% |
52.7% |
53.1% |
|
11.4% |
51.6% |
52.0% |
52.4% |
52.8% |
53.2% |
|
59.7% |
51.4% |
51.8% |
52.2% |
52.5% |
52.9% |
|
10.4% |
51.2% |
51.6% |
51.97% |
52.4% |
52.7% |
|
58.7% |
51.2% |
51.6% |
51.97% |
52.4% |
52.7% |
|
9.4% |
50.8% |
51.2% |
51.6% |
52.0% |
52.3% |
|
57.7% |
51.0% |
51.4% |
51.8% |
52.2% |
52.6% |
|
8.4% |
50.4% |
50.8% |
51.2% |
51.6% |
51.9% |
|
56.7% |
50.8% |
51.2% |
51.6% |
52.0% |
52.4% |
|
NY |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2004 Est |
|
|
Voted2k |
Mix |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Total |
|
|
Kerry |
Other |
|
DNV |
15.2% |
67.3% |
30.7% |
2.0% |
787 |
359 |
23 |
1,169 |
|
DNV |
57% |
2% |
|
Gore |
51.4% |
93.2% |
5.8% |
1.0% |
3,686 |
231 |
40 |
3,956 |
|
Gore |
91% |
1% |
|
Bush |
29.6% |
12.4% |
87.6% |
0.0% |
283 |
1,998 |
0 |
2,281 |
|
Bush |
10% |
0% |
|
Other |
3.8% |
72.7% |
8.3% |
19.0% |
212 |
24 |
55 |
292 |
|
Other |
64% |
19% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
True
Vote |
|
64.53% |
33.93% |
1.54% |
4,968 |
2,612 |
118 |
7,698 |
|
|
|
|
|
Recorded |
|
58.37% |
40.08% |
1.54% |
4,314 |
2,963 |
114 |
7,391 |
|
|
2008 Est |
|
|
Deviation |
|
6.16% |
-6.15% |
-0.01% |
653 |
-351 |
4 |
307 |
|
|
Obama |
Other |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DNV |
71.0% |
2.0% |
|
2004 |
|
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Total |
|
Kerry |
89.0% |
2.0% |
|
Recorded
|
|
58.37% |
40.08% |
1.54% |
4,314 |
2,963 |
114 |
7,391 |
|
Bush |
17.0% |
1.0% |
|
Exit
Poll (WPE) |
64.47% |
33.98% |
1.54% |
4,765 |
2,512 |
114 |
|
|
Other |
66.0% |
10.0% |
|
|
Deviation |
|
-6.10% |
6.10% |
0.00% |
-451 |
451 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sensitivity
Analysis |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Kerry % |
|
Kerry
NY Vote Share |
|
|
|
Kerry % |
|
Kerry
NY Vote Share |
|
|
||
|
Bush |
|
Kerry share of returning Gore voters |
|
DNV |
|
Kerry share of returning Gore voters |
||||||
|
64.5% |
91.2% |
92.2% |
93.2% |
94.2% |
95.2% |
|
64.5% |
91.2% |
92.2% |
93.2% |
94.2% |
95.2% |
|
14.4% |
64.1% |
64.6% |
65.1% |
65.6% |
66.2% |
|
69.3% |
63.8% |
64.3% |
64.8% |
65.4% |
65.9% |
|
13.4% |
63.8% |
64.3% |
64.8% |
65.3% |
65.9% |
|
68.3% |
63.7% |
64.2% |
64.7% |
65.2% |
65.7% |
|
12.4% |
63.5% |
64.0% |
64.53% |
65.0% |
65.6% |
|
67.3% |
63.5% |
64.0% |
64.53% |
65.0% |
65.6% |
|
11.4% |
63.2% |
63.7% |
64.2% |
64.8% |
65.3% |
|
66.3% |
63.4% |
63.9% |
64.4% |
64.9% |
65.4% |
|
10.4% |
62.9% |
63.4% |
63.9% |
64.5% |
65.0% |
|
65.3% |
63.2% |
63.7% |
64.2% |
64.7% |
65.3% |
|
CA |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2004 Est |
|
|
Voted2k |
Mix |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Total |
|
|
Kerry |
Other |
|
DNV |
16.4% |
63.7% |
34.3% |
2.0% |
1,337 |
719 |
42 |
2,097 |
|
DNV |
57% |
2% |
|
Gore |
45.5% |
92.4% |
6.6% |
1.0% |
5,387 |
384 |
58 |
5,829 |
|
Gore |
91% |
1% |
|
Bush |
34.2% |
11.6% |
88.4% |
0.0% |
506 |
3,869 |
0 |
4,375 |
|
Bush |
10% |
0% |
|
Other |
3.9% |
69.6% |
11.4% |
19.0% |
352 |
57 |
96 |
506 |
|
Other |
64% |
19% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
True
Vote |
|
59.20% |
39.27% |
1.53% |
7,581 |
5,029 |
196 |
12,807 |
|
|
|
|
|
Recorded |
|
54.31% |
44.36% |
1.32% |
6,745 |
5,510 |
165 |
12,420 |
|
|
2008 Est |
|
|
Deviation |
|
4.88% |
-5.09% |
0.21% |
836 |
-481 |
32 |
387 |
|
|
Obama |
Other |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DNV |
71.0% |
2.0% |
|
2004 |
|
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Total |
|
Kerry |
89.0% |
2.0% |
|
Recorded
|
|
54.31% |
44.36% |
1.32% |
6,745 |
5,510 |
165 |
12,420 |
|
Bush |
17.0% |
1.0% |
|
Exit
Poll (WPE) |
60.11% |
38.56% |
1.32% |
7,466 |
4,789 |
165 |
|
|
Other |
66.0% |
10.0% |
|
|
Deviation |
|
-5.80% |
5.80% |
0.00% |
-720 |
720 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sensitivity
Analysis |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Kerry % |
|
Kerry
CA Vote Share |
|
|
|
Kerry % |
|
Kerry
CA Vote Share |
|
|
||
|
Bush |
|
Kerry share of returning Gore voters |
|
DNV |
|
Kerry share of returning Gore voters |
||||||
|
59.2% |
90.4% |
91.4% |
92.4% |
93.4% |
94.4% |
|
59.2% |
90.4% |
91.4% |
92.4% |
93.4% |
94.4% |
|
13.6% |
59.0% |
59.4% |
59.9% |
60.3% |
60.8% |
|
65.7% |
58.6% |
59.1% |
59.5% |
60.0% |
60.4% |
|
12.6% |
58.6% |
59.1% |
59.5% |
60.0% |
60.4% |
|
64.7% |
58.5% |
58.9% |
59.4% |
59.8% |
60.3% |
|
11.6% |
58.3% |
58.7% |
59.20% |
59.7% |
60.1% |
|
63.7% |
58.3% |
58.7% |
59.20% |
59.7% |
60.1% |
|
10.6% |
57.9% |
58.4% |
58.9% |
59.3% |
59.8% |
|
62.7% |
58.1% |
58.6% |
59.0% |
59.5% |
59.9% |
|
9.6% |
57.6% |
58.1% |
58.5% |
59.0% |
59.4% |
|
61.7% |
58.0% |
58.4% |
58.9% |
59.3% |
59.8% |
|
PA |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2004 Est |
|
|
Voted2k |
Mix |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Total |
|
|
Kerry |
Other |
|
DNV |
20.5% |
59.6% |
38.4% |
2.0% |
712 |
459 |
24 |
1,195 |
|
DNV |
57% |
2% |
|
Gore |
40.5% |
91.5% |
7.5% |
1.0% |
2,169 |
177 |
24 |
2,370 |
|
Gore |
91% |
1% |
|
Bush |
36.7% |
10.6% |
89.4% |
0.0% |
227 |
1,916 |
0 |
2,143 |
|
Bush |
10% |
0% |
|
Other |
2.3% |
66.2% |
14.8% |
19.0% |
91 |
20 |
26 |
137 |
|
Other |
64% |
19% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
True
Vote |
|
54.74% |
44.00% |
1.26% |
3,200 |
2,572 |
74 |
5,845 |
|
|
|
|
|
Recorded |
|
50.92% |
48.42% |
0.65% |
2,938 |
2,794 |
38 |
5,770 |
|
|
2008 Est |
|
|
Deviation |
|
3.82% |
-4.42% |
0.61% |
261 |
-222 |
36 |
75 |
|
|
Obama |
Other |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DNV |
71.0% |
2.0% |
|
2004 |
|
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Total |
|
Kerry |
89.0% |
2.0% |
|
Recorded
|
|
50.92% |
48.42% |
0.65% |
2,938 |
2,794 |
38 |
5,770 |
|
Bush |
17.0% |
1.0% |
|
Exit
Poll (WPE) |
55.12% |
44.22% |
0.65% |
3,180 |
2,552 |
38 |
|
|
Other |
66.0% |
10.0% |
|
|
Deviation |
|
-4.20% |
4.20% |
0.00% |
-242 |
242 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sensitivity
Analysis |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Kerry % |
|
Kerry
PA Vote Share |
|
|
|
Kerry % |
|
Kerry
PA Vote Share |
|
|
||
|
Bush |
|
Kerry share of returning Gore voters |
|
DNV |
|
Kerry share of returning Gore voters |
||||||
|
54.7% |
89.5% |
90.5% |
91.5% |
92.5% |
93.5% |
|
54.7% |
89.5% |
90.5% |
91.5% |
92.5% |
93.5% |
|
12.6% |
54.7% |
55.1% |
55.5% |
55.9% |
56.3% |
|
61.6% |
54.3% |
54.7% |
55.1% |
55.6% |
56.0% |
|
11.6% |
54.3% |
54.7% |
55.1% |
55.5% |
55.9% |
|
60.6% |
54.1% |
54.5% |
54.9% |
55.4% |
55.8% |
|
10.6% |
53.9% |
54.3% |
54.74% |
55.1% |
55.6% |
|
59.6% |
53.9% |
54.3% |
54.74% |
55.1% |
55.6% |
|
9.6% |
53.6% |
54.0% |
54.4% |
54.8% |
55.2% |
|
58.6% |
53.7% |
54.1% |
54.5% |
54.9% |
55.3% |
|
8.6% |
53.2% |
53.6% |
54.0% |
54.4% |
54.8% |
|
57.6% |
53.5% |
53.9% |
54.3% |
54.7% |
55.1% |
|
MN |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2004 Est |
|
|
Voted2k |
Mix |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Total |
|
|
Kerry |
Other |
|
DNV |
21.3% |
60.1% |
37.9% |
2.0% |
369 |
233 |
12 |
614 |
|
DNV |
57% |
2% |
|
Gore |
37.7% |
91.6% |
7.4% |
1.0% |
998 |
80 |
11 |
1,089 |
|
Gore |
91% |
1% |
|
Bush |
35.8% |
10.7% |
89.3% |
0.0% |
111 |
924 |
0 |
1,034 |
|
Bush |
10% |
0% |
|
Other |
5.2% |
66.6% |
14.4% |
19.0% |
100 |
22 |
28 |
150 |
|
Other |
64% |
19% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
True
Vote |
|
54.63% |
43.58% |
1.79% |
1,577 |
1,258 |
52 |
2,887 |
|
|
|
|
|
Recorded |
|
51.09% |
47.61% |
1.30% |
1,445 |
1,347 |
37 |
2,828 |
|
|
2008 Est |
|
|
Deviation |
|
3.54% |
-4.03% |
0.49% |
132 |
-89 |
15 |
59 |
|
|
Obama |
Other |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DNV |
71.0% |
2.0% |
|
2004 |
|
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Kerry |
Bush |
Other |
Total |
|
Kerry |
89.0% |
2.0% |
|
Recorded
|
|
51.09% |
47.61% |
1.30% |
1,445 |
1,347 |
37 |
2,828 |
|
Bush |
17.0% |
1.0% |
|
Exit
Poll (WPE) |
55.69% |
43.01% |
1.30% |
1,575 |
1,217 |
37 |
|
|
Other |
66.0% |
10.0% |
|
|
Deviation |
|
-4.60% |
4.60% |
0.00% |
-130 |
130 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sensitivity
Analysis |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Kerry % |
|
Kerry
MN Vote Share |
|
|
|
Kerry % |
|
Kerry
MN Vote Share |
|
|
||
|
Bush |
|
Kerry share of returning Gore voters |
|
DNV |
|
Kerry share of returning Gore voters |
||||||
|
54.6% |
89.6% |
90.6% |
91.6% |
92.6% |
93.6% |
|
54.6% |
89.6% |
90.6% |
91.6% |
92.6% |
93.6% |
|
12.7% |
54.6% |
55.0% |
55.3% |
55.7% |
56.1% |
|
62.1% |
54.3% |
54.7% |
55.1% |
55.4% |
55.8% |
|
11.7% |
54.2% |
54.6% |
55.0% |
55.4% |
55.7% |
|
61.1% |
54.1% |
54.5% |
54.8% |
55.2% |
55.6% |
|
10.7% |
53.9% |
54.3% |
54.63% |
55.0% |
55.4% |
|
60.1% |
53.9% |
54.3% |
54.63% |
55.0% |
55.4% |
|
9.7% |
53.5% |
53.9% |
54.3% |
54.7% |
55.0% |
|
59.1% |
53.7% |
54.0% |
54.4% |
54.8% |
55.2% |
|
8.7% |
53.2% |
53.5% |
53.9% |
54.3% |
54.7% |
|
58.1% |
53.5% |
53.8% |
54.2% |
54.6% |
55.0% |