Uncounted and Switched Votes

Uncounted and Switched Votes

TruthIsAll

Further Confirmation of a Kerry Landslide

1988-2004: Uncounted Votes and Exit Poll Discrepancies

Uncounted votes have steadily declined as percent of total votes cast - from 10.4% in 1988 to 2.7% in 2004. When uncounted votes are included in order to derive total votes cast for the five elections from 1988-2004, the adjusted Democratic vote is within 0.1% of the unadjusted exit poll share.

Comparing the adjusted vote to the aggregate state exit polls and the recorded vote:

(2-party exit poll in parenthesis)

Year Democrat Recorded Exit Poll Adjusted

Average 46.9 48.8 (52.7) 48.9

1988 Dukakis 45.6 46.8 (47.3) 48.7

1992 Clinton 43.0 45.7 (56.8) 45.7

1996 Clinton 49.2 50.2 (55.8) 51.4

2000 Gore 48.4 49.4 (51.4) 49.7

2004 Kerry 48.3 51.8 (52.3) 49.0

Look at this graph. In every one of the last five elections the unadjusted Democratic exit poll share exceeded the recorded vote. But which of the five elections stands out from the rest? Only in 2004 did the ADJUSTED vote come up short of the EXIT POLL share. The 2004 exit poll discrepancies were different in kind and scope from those of the prior four elections. Unlike 1988-2000, the 2004 discrepancies cannot be explained by uncounted votes alone.

The analysis shown below indicates that given Census 2000/2004 estimates of total votes cast and 12:22am National Exit Poll “Voted 2000” shares, Bush needed 21.5% of returning Gore voters to match his recorded vote! Even using Final NEP vote shares, Bush needed 18.1% of returning Gore voters! The Final was forced to match the recorded vote using mathematically impossible weights and by sharply increasing Bush vote shares from the 12:22am NEP.

There are some exit poll critics who claim that the large (5.4 WPE) 1992 exit poll discrepancy proves that the 2004 discrepancy (7.1 WPE) was not unique and therefore to conclude that the election was stolen based on exit poll results is "crap" and "bad science". After all, they say, there were no allegations of fraud in 1992. They fail to mention or are unaware of the fact that in 1992 Clinton beat Bush I by 44.9-39.1m (43.0-37.4%), but that 9.4m votes were uncounted, of which 70-80% were Democratic ( 75% Dem / 25% Rep are used in the model). When uncounted votes are included, the 52.0-41.5m adjusted vote (45.7-36.4%), exactly matched Clinton’s unadjusted exit poll.

From 1988-2000, after the uncounted adjustment, there was a 0.85% average Democratic exit poll discrepancy and 2.9 WPE. In 2004, after the 3.4m uncounted vote adjustment, the exit poll discrepancy was 2.8% and Bush's margin was reduced from 3.0m (62.0-59.0) to 1.3m (62.9-61.6). But uncounted votes were only one component of Election Fraud 2004. The Election Calculator Model determined that approximately 5m votes were switched from Kerry to Bush.

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

Recorded and Uncounted Votes, Unadjusted Exit Poll WPE

Recorded Dem Rep Other Dem Rep Other WPE Unctd Dem Rep

Avg 104.0 48.8 47.9 7.2 46.9% 46.0% 7.1% 3.76 7.5 5.7 1.9

2004 122.3 59.0 62.0 1.2 48.3% 50.7% 1.0% 7.09 3.4 2.6 0.9

2000 105.4 51.0 50.5 4.0 48.4% 47.9% 3.8% 2.01 5.4 4.0 1.3

1996 96.3 47.4 39.2 9.7 49.2% 40.7% 10.1% 1.93 8.7 6.5 2.2

1992 104.4 44.9 39.1 20.4 43.0% 37.4% 19.6% 5.40 9.4 7.1 2.4

1988 91.6 41.8 48.9 0.9 45.6% 53.4% 1.0% 2.38 10.6 7.9 2.6

Adjusted Votes Shares vs. Exit Poll

(after allocating uncounted votes)

Adj. Votes Dem Rep Other Dem Rep Other EPDem Diff EP2pty Unctd/Votes cast

Avg 111.5 54.5 49.8 7.2 48.9% 44.6% 6.5% 48.8% 0.1% 52.7% 7.0%

2004 125.7 61.6 62.9 1.2 49.0% 50.0% 1.0% 51.8% -2.8% 52.3% 2.74%

2000 110.8 55.0 51.8 4.0 49.7% 46.8% 3.6% 49.4% 0.3% 51.4% 4.86%

1996 105.0 54.0 41.4 9.7 51.4% 39.4% 9.2% 50.2% 1.2% 55.8% 8.31%

1992 113.9 52.0 41.5 20.4 45.7% 36.4% 17.9% 45.7% 0.0% 56.8% 8.48%

1988 102.2 49.8 51.5 0.9 48.7% 50.4% 0.9% 46.8% 1.9% 47.3% 10.37%

The Census Bureau website states the following:

“The data are from the November 2004 Voting and Registration Supplement to the Current Population Survey (CPS). Statistics from surveys are subject to sampling and non-sampling error. The CPS estimate of overall turnout (125.7 million) differs from the “official” turnout, as reported by the Clerk of the House (122.3 million). For further information on the source of the data and accuracy of the estimates, including standard errors and confidence intervals, go here.

The difference between the 2004 recorded vote total and the U.S. Census estimate is 3.45m votes. The Census survey margin of error is 0.30%. According to investigative reporter Greg Palast, government records show that 3.006m votes were uncounted, comprised of 1.389m spoiled, 1.091m provisional and .0.526m absentee ballots.

Note that the 3.4m estimated difference is a net figure. In 13 states the official vote exceeded the Census estimate by 730,000 votes. The largest discrepancies were in Florida (238k), Ohio (143k) and Tennessee (118k). Apparently more votes were padded than suppressed in the 13 states. But the net discrepancy does not contain the necessary information to calculate the actual number of uncounted and padded votes.

There are many combinations which would provide the net number. For example, of the 3.4m vote difference, 4.0m could have been suppressed (uncounted) and 0.6m padded (stuffed). Or 5.0m suppressed and 1.6m padded. In Florida, the least onerous case would be if the total 238k discrepancy was due to vote padding. But it is far more likely that vote padding occurred in Republican districts while vote suppression took place in heavily Democratic minority districts. The net 238k difference could have been due to 338k padded and 100k suppressed votes.

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________

The Election Calculator

2000 Recorded

2004 Calculated

Voted

Recorded

Uncounted

Cast

Deaths

Alive

Turnout

Voted

Weight

Kerry

Bush

Other

DNV

25.62

20.4%

57%

41%

Gore

51.00

4.04

55.04

2.72

52.32

95%

49.70

39.5%

91%

Bush

50.46

1.08

51.53

2.48

49.06

95%

46.60

37.1%

10%

90%

Nader/other

3.96

0.27

4.23

0.21

4.02

95%

3.82

3.0%

64%

17%

19%

Total

105.42

5.38

110.80

5.41

105.39

100.13

125.74

100%

53.23%

45.39%

1.38%

125.74

66.94

57.07

1.74

Sensitivity Analysis

Kerry National Vote

Gore share of

Kerry share of

Uncounted in 2000

Gore Voter Turnout

Gore voters

Share of New voters (DNV in 2000)

53.2%

91.0%

93.0%

95.0%

97.0%

99.0%

53.2%

53.0%

55.0%

57.0%

59.0%

61.0%

95.0%

53.3%

53.6%

53.9%

54.2%

54.5%

95.0%

54.0%

54.4%

54.8%

55.2%

55.6%

85.0%

53.0%

53.3%

53.6%

53.9%

54.1%

93.0%

53.2%

53.6%

54.0%

54.4%

54.8%

75.0%

52.7%

52.9%

53.2%

53.5%

53.8%

91.0%

52.4%

52.8%

53.2%

53.6%

54.0%

65.0%

52.3%

52.6%

52.9%

53.2%

53.5%

89.0%

51.6%

52.0%

52.4%

52.8%

53.3%

55.0%

52.0%

52.3%

52.6%

52.9%

53.1%

87.0%

50.8%

51.2%

51.7%

52.1%

52.5%

Kerry Margin (millions)

9.87

91.0%

93.0%

95.0%

97.0%

99.0%

9.87

53.0%

55.0%

57.0%

59.0%

61.0%

95.0%

10.1

10.8

11.5

12.3

13.0

95.0%

11.8

12.8

13.8

14.9

15.9

85.0%

9.2

10.0

10.7

11.4

12.2

93.0%

9.8

10.8

11.9

12.9

13.9

75.0%

8.4

9.1

9.9

10.6

11.3

91.0%

7.8

8.8

9.9

10.9

11.9

65.0%

7.6

8.3

9.0

9.8

10.5

89.0%

5.8

6.9

7.9

8.9

9.9

55.0%

6.8

7.5

8.2

8.9

9.6

87.0%

3.8

4.9

5.9

6.9

7.9

Sensitivity Analysis

Kerry National Vote

Bush 2000 Voter

Kerry share of

Turnout in '04

Gore Voter Turnout in '04

Gore voters

Share of Bush voters

53.2%

91.0%

93.0%

95.0%

97.0%

99.0%

53.2%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

91.0%

53.4%

53.7%

54.0%

54.3%

54.5%

95.0%

54.1%

54.4%

54.8%

55.2%

55.6%

93.0%

53.0%

53.3%

53.6%

53.9%

54.2%

93.0%

53.3%

53.7%

54.0%

54.4%

54.8%

95.0%

52.7%

52.9%

53.2%

53.5%

53.8%

91.0%

52.5%

52.9%

53.2%

53.6%

54.0%

97.0%

52.3%

52.6%

52.9%

53.2%

53.4%

89.0%

51.7%

52.1%

52.4%

52.8%

53.2%

99.0%

51.9%

52.2%

52.5%

52.8%

53.1%

87.0%

50.9%

51.3%

51.7%

52.0%

52.4%

Kerry Margin (millions)

9.87

91.0%

93.0%

95.0%

97.0%

99.0%

9.87

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

91.0%

10.3

11.0

11.7

12.5

13.2

95.0%

12.0

12.9

13.8

14.8

15.7

93.0%

9.4

10.1

10.8

11.5

12.3

93.0%

10.0

10.9

11.9

12.8

13.7

95.0%

8.4

9.1

9.9

10.6

11.3

91.0%

8.0

8.9

9.9

10.8

11.7

97.0%

7.5

8.2

8.9

9.6

10.4

89.0%

6.0

6.9

7.9

8.8

9.7

99.0%

6.5

7.3

8.0

8.7

9.4

87.0%

4.0

5.0

5.9

6.8

7.8

Using the above input assumptions as the base case, let’s look at several 2000/2004 uncounted vote scenarios based on the Final Exit Poll (13660 respondents) and preliminary 12:22am Exit Poll (13047 respondents) vote shares:

Required Bush share of returning Gore voters: 2000-2004 uncounted vote scenarios

Most likely scenario: 2000/2004 U.S. Vote Census estimates and the 12:22am NEP “Voted 2000” shares (13047 respondents):

Bush needed 21.5% of returning Gore voters to match his recorded vote!

Least likely scenario: Vote Census estimates and the Final NEP “Voted 2000” shares (13660 respondents):

Bush needed 18.1% of returning Gore voters to match his recorded vote!

Assumptions

1.22% annual voter mortality

95% of 2000 voters turned out to vote in 2004

Final NEP vote shares:

Uncounted votes included for 2000 and 2004: Bush required 18.1% of returning Gore Voters

Uncounted votes not included: Bush required 16.3% of returning Gore Voters

12:22am NEP vote shares:

Uncounted votes included for 2000 and 2004: Bush required 21.5% of returning Gore Voters

Uncounted votes not included: Bush required 20.0% of returning Gore Voters

Final NEP Voted 2000 shares

3.45m (2.74%) Uncounted in 2004, none in 2000

2000 Recorded

2004 Calculated

Voted

Recorded

Uncounted

Cast

Deaths

Alive

Turnout

Voted

Weight

Kerry

Bush

Other

DNV

30.48

24.2%

54.0%

45%

Gore

51.00

0.00

51.00

2.59

48.41

95%

45.99

36.6%

82.3%

16.7%

Bush

50.46

0.00

50.46

2.36

48.10

95%

45.69

36.3%

91%

Nader

Other

3.957

0.00

3.96

0.19

3.76

95%

3.58

2.8%

71%

21%

Total

105.42

0.00

105.42

5.14

100.27

95.26

125.74

1.00

48.48%

50.68%

0.84%

125.74

60.96

63.73

1.05

No uncounted votes in 2000 and 2004

2000 Recorded

2004 Calculated

Voted

Recorded

Uncounted

Cast

Deaths

Alive

Turnout

Voted

Weight

Kerry

Bush

Other

DNV

27.03

22.1%

54%

45%

Gore

51.00

0.00

51.00

2.59

48.41

95%

45.99

37.6%

82.7%

16.3%

Bush

50.46

0.00

50.46

2.36

48.10

95%

45.69

37.4%

91%

Other

3.96

0.00

3.96

0.19

3.76

95%

3.58

2.9%

71%

21%

Total

105.42

0.00

105.42

5.14

100.27

95.26

122.29

100%

48.48%

50.69%

0.83%

122.29

59.28

61.99

1.02

5.4m (4.86%) Uncounted in 2000, 3.45m (2.74%) in 2004

2000 Recorded

2004 Calculated

Voted

Recorded

Uncounted

Cast

Deaths

Alive

Turnout

Voted

Weight

Kerry

Bush

Other

DNV

25.61

20.4%

54%

45%

Gore

51.00

4.04

55.04

2.72

52.32

95%

49.70

39.5%

80.9%

18.1%

Bush

50.46

1.08

51.53

2.48

49.06

95%

46.60

37.1%

91%

Nader/Other

3.96

0.27

4.23

0.21

4.02

95%

3.82

3.0%

71%

21%

Total

105.42

5.38

110.80

5.41

105.39

100.13

125.74

100%

48.47%

50.69%

0.84%

125.74

60.95

63.73

1.06

5.4m (4.86%) Uncounted in 2000, none in 2004

2000 Recorded

2004 Calculated

Voted

Recorded

Uncounted

Cast

Deaths

Alive

Turnout

Voted

Weight

Kerry

Bush

Other

DNV

22.17

18.1%

54%

45%

Gore

51.00

4.04

55.04

2.72

52.32

95%

49.70

40.6%

81.3%

17.7%

Bush

50.46

1.08

51.53

2.48

49.06

95%

46.60

38.1%

91%

Nader/Other

3.96

0.27

4.23

0.21

4.02

95%

3.82

3.1%

71%

21%

Total

105.42

5.38

110.80

5.41

105.39

100.13

122.29

100%

48.48%

50.68%

0.84%

122.29

59.29

61.98

1.02

12:22am NEP Voted 2000 shares

5.4m (4.86%) Uncounted in 2000, 3.45m (2.74%) in 2004

2000 Recorded

2004 Calculated

Voted

Recorded

Uncounted

Cast

Deaths

Alive

Turnout

Voted

Weight

Kerry

Bush

Other

DNV

25.62

20.4%

57%

41%

Gore

51.00

4.04

55.04

2.72

52.32

95%

49.70

39.5%

77.5%

21.5%

Bush

50.46

1.08

51.53

2.48

49.06

95%

46.60

37.1%

10%

90%

Nader/other

3.96

0.27

4.23

0.21

4.02

95%

3.82

3.0%

64%

17%

19%

Total

105.42

5.38

110.80

5.41

105.39

100.13

125.74

100%

47.90%

50.72%

1.38%

125.74

60.23

63.78

1.74

No uncounted votes in 2000 and 2004

2000 Recorded

2004 Calculated

Voted

Recorded

Uncounted

Cast

Deaths

Alive

Turnout

Voted

Weight

Kerry

Bush

Other

DNV

27.03

22.1%

57%

41%

Gore

51.00

0.00

51.00

2.59

48.41

95%

45.99

37.6%

79.0%

20.0%

Bush

50.46

0.00

50.46

2.36

48.10

95%

45.69

37.4%

10%

90%

Nader/other

3.96

0.00

3.96

0.19

3.76

95%

3.58

2.9%

64%

17%

19%

Total

105.42

0.00

105.42

5.14

100.27

95.26

122.29

100%

47.92%

50.71%

1.37%

122.29

58.60

62.01

1.68

Calculation of 2004 Switched Votes (assuming zero uncounted votes in 2000)

Based on the 12:22am NEP vote shares with feasible weights, Kerry’s true vote was 66.1 million. Given his recorded 59.0m vote and the net uncounted votes, we can approximate the number of votes which were switched to Bush. Assuming that Kerry won 2.6m of the 3.45m (75%) net uncounted votes, then approximately 4.5m (6.8%) votes must have been switched to Bush. Assuming that the votes were switched uniformly and allocating uncounted votes to each state according to the population and racial mix, Kerry won 336 electoral votes, matching the 2004 Election Model forcast. The Monte Carlo simulation indicated that Kerry would win 337 electoral votes (assuming that he captured 75% of the undecided vote).

Approximately 4.5 million votes were switched from Kerry to Bush

Given:

125.74m votes cast (2004 Census)

122.29m votes recorded

3.45m votes uncounted

Assume:

2.58m (75%) uncounted votes for Kerry

0.87% annual mortality

95% turnout of Gore and Bush 2000 voters

Calculate:

The approximate number of Kerry votes which were switched to Bush.

True Vote (T) = Recorded (R) + Net Uncounted (U) + Switched (S)

S = 4.5 = T - R - U = 66.10 - 59.03 - 2.58

Approximately 4.5 million votes were switched from Kerry to Bush

Switched vote rate:

SVR = S / T = 4.5/ 66.10 = 6.8%

True Vote Reconciliation

Recorded Share Uncounted (net) Switched True Vote

Kerry 59.027 75% 2.584 61.611 4.488 6.79% 66.097 52.57%

Bush 62.040 24% 0.827 62.867 -4.488 -7.69% 58.375 46.43%

Other 1.228 1% 0.034 1.262 0.000 0.00% 1.262 1.01%

Total 122.30 100% 3.445 125.74 0.000 0.00% 125.74 100.0%

VOTE DISCREPANCY ASSUMPTIONS

(Votes in thousands)

NET UNCOUNTED VOTE SHARE

Kerry 75%:2,582

Bush 24%: 826

Other 1%: 34

Total 100%: 3,443 (2.74% of Census 125.7mm)

SWITCHED VOTES

4,488 (6.79%) of Kerry Votes were switched to Bush

KERRY VOTE RECONCILIATION

TrueVote 66,097 100.0%

Unctd -2,582 3.91%

Net 63,515 96.09%

Switch -4,488 6.79%

Recorded 59,027 89.30%

EFFECT ON POPULAR AND ELECTORAL VOTE

True Vote Electoral Vote

Kerry Bush Kerry Bush

Actual 59027 62040 252 286

Change 7070 -3662 97 -97

True 66097 58378 336 202

VOTE 52.57% 46.43%

BASE CASE SUMMARY

Switched votes: 6.8%

Share RECORDED UNCOUNTED ADJUSTED SWITCHED TRUE VOTE

Kerry 75% 59027 48.27% 2582 61609 49.0% 2.11% 4488 66097 52.57%

Bush 24% 62040 50.73 826 62866 50.0% 0.68% -4488 58378 46.43%

Other 1% 1228 1.00 34 1262 1.0% 0.03% 0 1262 1.00%

Total 2.74% 122295 100.0 3442 125737 100.0% 2.81% 0 125737 100.0%

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS I

Various effects of incremental switched vote rates (SVR)

(Kerry 75% share of uncounted votes)

Recorded Share Recorded Vote Kerry Electoral Vote

Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Margin Kerry Bush States which

Recorded 48.27% 50.73% 59027 62040 -3013 252 286 flipped to Bush

SVR

6.8% 52.57% 46.43% 66097 58383 7714 336 202 CO FL IA MO NV NM OH

6.5% 52.42% 46.58% 65906 58570 7336 325 213 CO FL IA NV NM OH

6.0% 52.15% 46.84% 65575 58901 6675 325 213 CO FL IA NV NM OH

5.0% 51.63% 47.37% 64914 59562 5353 325 213 CO FL IA NV NM OH

4.0% 51.10% 47.90% 64253 60223 4031 325 213 CO FL IA NV NM OH

3.0% 50.58% 48.42% 63592 60883 2709 289 249 IA NV NM

2.0% 50.05% 48.95% 62931 61544 1387 289 249 IA NV NM

1.0% 49.52% 49.47% 62270 62205 65 264 274 IA NM

0.0% 49.00% 50.00% 61609 62866 -1257 264 &nnbsp; 274 IA NM

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS II:

Effect of incremental uncounted (net) and switched votes on Kerry electoral vote

Uncounted Vote Share

50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80%

SVR Kerry Electoral Vote

6.8% 325 325 325 325 325 336 336

6.5% 325 325 325 325 325 325 336

6.0% 325 325 325 325 325 325 325

5.0% 298 298 325 325 325 325 325

4.0% 289 289 289 289 289 325 325

3.0% 289 289 289 289 289 289 289

2.0% 264 284 284 284 289 289 289

1.0% 264 264 264 264 264 264 284

0.0% 252 252 252 252 259 264 264

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS III

Effect of incremental uncounted (net) and switched votes on Kerry vote share

Uncounted Vote Share

50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80%

SVR Kerry Vote Share

6.8% 51.89% 52.03% 52.16% 52.30% 52.44% 52.57% 52.71%

6.5% 51.73% 51.87% 52.00% 52.14% 52.28% 52.42% 52.55%

6.0% 51.47% 51.60% 51.74% 51.88% 52.02% 52.15% 52.29%

5.0% 50.94% 51.08% 51.22% 51.35% 51.49% 51.63% 51.76%

4.0% 50.42% 50.55% 50.69% 50.83% 50.96% 51.10% 51.24%

3.0% 49.89% 50.03% 50.16% 50.30% 50.44% 50.58% 50.71%

2.0% 49.36% 49.50% 49.64% 49.78% 49.91% 50.05% 50.19%

1.0% 48.84% 48.98% 49.11% 49.25% 49.39% 49.52% 49.66%

0.0% 48.31% 48.45% 48.59% 48.72% 48.86% 49.00% 49.14%

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IV

Effect of incremental uncounted (net) and switched votes on Kerry margin

Uncounted Vote Share

50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80%

SVR Kerry Margin (in thousands)

6.8% 6011 6355 6699 7044 7388 7732 8077

6.5% 5614 5958 6303 6647 6991 7336 7680

6.0% 4953 5297 5642 5986 6330 6675 7019

5.0% 3631 3975 4320 4664 5008 5353 5697

4.0% 2309 2654 2998 3342 3686 4031 4375

3.0% 987 1332 1676 2020 2365 2709 3053

2.0% -335 10 354 698 1043 1387 1731

1.0% -1657 -1312 -968 -6224 -279 65 409<

0.0% -2979 -2634 -2290 -1946 --1601 -1257 -913

State Uncounted (net) and Switched Votes

(in thousands)

Recorded Vote Uncounted Switched TRUE Vote

Total Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Kerry Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Margin EVote

122295 59027 62040 48.27% 50.73% 2582 826 4488 66097 58378 52.57% 46.43% Change Flip

AL 1877 694 1176 37.0% 62.7% 42 14 47 784 1142 40.5% 59.1% 6.4%

AK 307 111 191 36.2% 62.2% 7 2 8 125 186 39.7% 58.7% 6.3%

AZ 1998 894 1104 44.7% 55.3% 31 10 61 986 1053 48.3% 51.6% 7.0%

AR 1049 470 573 44.8% 54.6% 19 6 32 521 547 48.5% 50.9% 7.2%

CA 12255 6745 5510 55.0% 45.0% 246 79 458 7449 5131 59.2% 40.8% 8.6%

CO 2116 1002 1101 47.4% 52.0% 31 10 68 1101 1043 51.0% 48.3% 7.3% 9

CT 1564 857 694 54.8% 44.4% 26 8 58 941 644 58.9% 40.3% 8.4%

DC 226 203 21 89.8% 9.3% 10 3 14 227 10 94.8% 4.3% 4.4%

DE 373 200 172 53.6% 46.1% 8 2 14 221 161 57.7% 42.0% 8.5%

FL 7582 3584 3965 47.3% 52.3% 140 45 243 3967 3766 51.1% 48.5% 7.5% 27

GA 3280 1366 1914 41.6% 58.4% 81 26 93 1540 1847 45.4% 54.5% 7.1%

HI 426 232 194 54.5% 45.5% 18 6 16 265 184 59.0% 40.9% 9.7%

ID 590 181 409 30.7% 69.3% 7 2 12 201 399 33.5% 66.5% 4.9%

IL 5238 2892 2346 55.2% 44.8% 99 32 196 3187 2181 59.4% 40.6% 8.6%

IN 2448 969 1479 39.6% 60.4% 37 12 66 1072 1425 42.9% 57.1% 6.3%

IA 1500 742 752 49.5% 50.1% 19 6 50 811 708 53.2% 46.4% 7.4% 7

KS 1180 435 736 36.9% 62.4% 18 6 30 482 712 40.1% 59.2% 5.9%

KY 1791 713 1069 39.8% 59.7% 26 8 48 788 1029 43.1% 56.4% 6.3%

LA 1929 820 1102 42.5% 57.1% 49 16 56 925 1062 46.4% 53.2% 7.3%

ME 735 397 330 54.0% 44.9% 9 3 27 433 306 57.9% 41.0% 8.0%

MD 2370 1334 1024 56.3% 43.2% 60 19 91 1484 952 60.6% 38.9% 9.1%

MA 2875 1804 1071 62.7% 37.3% 46 15 122 1972 963 67.2% 32.8% 9.4%

MI 4816 2479 2313 51.5% 48.0% 89 28 168 2736 2173 55.4% 44.0% 8.0%

MN 2811 1445 1347 51.4% 47.9% 41 13 98 1584 1262 55.3% 44.0% 7.8%

MS 1146 458 685 40.0% 59.8% 31 10 31 520 664 43.8% 55.9% 7.0%

MO 2715 1259 1456 46.4% 53.6% 45 15 85 1390 1385 50.1% 49.9% 7.3% 11

MT 446 174 266 39.0% 59.6% 6 2 12 192 256 42.3% 56.4% 6.1%

NE 773 254 513 32.9% 66.4% 11 3 17 282 499 35.8% 63.4% 5.3%

NV 821 397 419 48.4% 51.0% 14 5 27 438 397 52.2% 47.2% 7.6% 5

NH 675 340 331 50.4% 49.0% 8 3 23 371 311 54.1% 45.3% 7.5%

NJ 3600 1911 1670 53.1% 46.4% 72 23 130 2113 1563 57.2% 42.3% 8.4%

NM 751 370 377 49.3% 50.2% 13 4 25 408 356 53.1% 46.4% 7.7% 5

NY 7377 4314 2963 58.5% 40.2% 158 50 293 4764 2720 62.8% 35.9% 9.1%

NC 3487 1526 1961 43.8% 56.2% 74 24 104 1704 1881 47.5% 52.5% 7.2%

ND 312 111 197 35.6% 63.1% 4 1 8 123 191 38.7% 60.1% 5.7%

OH 5601 2741 2860 48.9% 51.1% 94 30 186 3021 2704 52.8% 47.2% 7.6% 20

OK 1464 504 960 34.4% 65.6% 28 9 34 566 935 37.7% 62.3% 5.8%

OR 1810 943 867 52.1% 47.9% 26 8 64 1033 811 56.0% 44.0% 7.9%

PA 5732 2938 2794 51.3% 48.7% 93 30 199 3231 2624 55.2% 44.8% 7.9%

RI 434 260 169 59.9% 38.9% 7 2 18 284 153 64.2% 34.7% 9.0%

SC 1606 662 938 41.2% 58.4% 38 12 45 745 905 45.0% 54.6% 7.0%

SD 386 149 233 38.6% 60.4% 6 2 10 165 225 41.9% 57.1% 6.1%

TN 2429 1036 1384 42.7% 57.0% 45 14 70 1151 1328 46.3% 53.4% 6.9%

TX 7360 2833 4527 38.5% 61.5% 129 41 192 3155 4376 41.9% 58.1% 6.3%

UT 916 241 664 26.3% 72.5% 12 4 16 269 651 28.9% 69.9% 4.4%

VT 309 184 121 59.5% 39.2% 4 1 12 200 110 63.8% 34.9% 8.7%

VA 3172 1455 1717 45.9% 54.1% 68 22 99 1622 1640 49.7% 50.3% 7.5%

WA 2838 1510 1305 53.2% 46.0% 47 15 103 1660 1218 57.2% 42.0% 8.2%

WV 755 327 424 43.3% 56.2% 9 3 22 359 405 46.7% 52.7% 6.6%

WI 2984 1490 1478 49.9% 49.5% 44 14 101 1635 1391 53.7% 45.7% 7.6%

WY 242 71 168 29.3% 69.4% 3 1 5 79 164 32.0% 66.7% 4.8%

Padded Votes

State	Kerry	Bush	Other	Total	Padded	Cast	Padded%Cast
Alaska	111	191	11	313	20	293	6.7%
Colorado	1,002	1,101	27	2,130	33	2,097	1.6%
Connecticut	857	694	27	1,579	55	1,524	3.6%
Florida	3,584	3,965	62	7,610	238	7,372	3.2%
Idaho	181	409	8	598	13	585	2.3%
Maine	397	330	14	741	5	736	0.7%
Michigan	2,479	2,314	46	4,839	21	4,818	0.4%
NewHampshire	341	331	6	678	1	677	0.1%
Ohio	2,741	2,860	27	5,628	143	5,485	2.6%
SouthDakota	149	233	6	388	10	378	2.7%
Tennessee	1,036	1,384	16	2,437	118	2,319	5.1%
Virginia	1,455	1,717	27	3,198	64	3,134	2.1%
Washington	1,510	1,305	44	2,859	8	2,851	0.3%

Total	15,843	16,833	322	32,999	730	32,269	2.2%

Uncounted Votes

State	Kerry	Bush	Other	Total	Unctd	Cast	Unctd%Cast
Alabama	694	1,176	13	1,883	177	2,060	8.6%
Arizona	894	1,104	15	2,013	226	2,239	10.1%
Arkansas	470	573	12	1,055	85	1,140	7.5%
California	6,745	5,510	165	12,420	387	12,807	3.0%
Delaware	200	172	3	375	10	385	2.6%
D. C.	203	21	3	228	42	270	15.7%
Georgia	1,366	1,914	21	3,302	30	3,332	0.9%
Hawaii	232	194	3	429	4	433	0.9%
Illinois	2,892	2,346	37	5,274	398	5,672	7.0%
Indiana	969	1,479	20	2,468	130	2,598	5.0%
Iowa	742	752	13	1,507	15	1,522	1.0%
Kansas	435	736	16	1,188	0	1,188	0.02%
Kentucky	713	1,069	14	1,796	134	1,930	6.9%
Louisiana	820	1,102	21	1,943	124	2,067	6.0%
Maryland	1,334	1,025	27	2,387	26	2,413	1.1%
Massachusetts	1,804	1,071	37	2,912	173	3,085	5.6%
Minnesota	1,445	1,347	37	2,828	59	2,887	2.0%
Mississippi	458	685	9	1,152	111	1,263	8.8%
Missouri	1,259	1,456	16	2,731	84	2,815	3.0%
Montana	174	266	11	450	32	482	6.6%
Nebraska	254	513	11	778	15	793	1.9%
Nevada	397	419	14	830	41	871	4.8%
New Jersey	1,911	1,670	30	3,612	81	3,693	2.2%
New Mexico	371	377	8	756	81	837	9.6%
New York	4,314	2,963	114	7,391	307	7,698	4.0%
N Carolina	1,526	1,961	14	3,501	138	3,639	3.8%
North Dakota	111	197	5	313	17	330	5.2%
Oklahoma	504	960	0	1,464	77	1,541	5.0%
Oregon	943	867	27	1,837	87	1,924	4.5%
Pennsylvania	2,938	2,794	38	5,770	75	5,845	1.3%
Rhode Island	260	169	8	437	30	467	6.4%
S Carolina	662	938	18	1,618	281	1,899	14.8%
Texas	2,833	4,527	51	7,411	539	7,950	6.8%
Utah	241	664	23	928	94	1,022	9.2%
Vermont	184	121	7	312	4	316	1.2%
West Virginia	327	424	6	756	42	798	5.3%
Wisconsin	1,490	1,478	29	2,997	13	3,010	0.4%
Wyoming	71	168	5	243	4	247	1.4%

Total	43,185	45,207	903	89,295	4,173	93,468	4.7%