2000 Voter Turnout in 2004: Further Confirmation of a Kerry Landslide
TruthIsAll
To believe that Bush won by 3 million votes in 2004, you
must also believe that 60% of Gore voters returned to the polls - as opposed to
95% of Bush voters.
Objective: Determine Gore 2000 voter turnout in 2004 required to
match the recorded vote.
Data
2000 recorded vote: 105.4m
2004 recorded vote: 122.3m
2004 Census total votes cast: 125.7m
2004 National Exit Poll (12:22am Composite)
Assumptions
1.25% Annual voter mortality
95% turnout of Bush 2000 voters in 2004
Conclusions
To match the recorded 2004 vote, you must believe that only 60% of Gore
2000 voters turned out.
You must believe that 29 million Gore voters and 45
million Bush voters returned to vote in 2004.
A 16 million excess of returning Bush voters is implausible. Therefore,
so is the official vote.
But saying the official vote is “ implausible” is an understatement.
The official election results are bogus.
Kerry did not lose by 3 million votes.
He won by 8-10 million votes.
And that is plausible if you just crunch the numbers.
Read on.
Maximum number of 2000 voters who could have voted in 2004
2000 Voted Died Alive
Gore 51.00 2.53 48.47
Bush 50.46 2.54 47.91
Other 3.96 0.20 3.76
Total 105.42 5.27 100.15
Implausible Scenario
60% Gore voter turnout
Bush wins by
3.3 million votes
Turnout Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV
- 47.6 37.8% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 60% 29.0 23.1% 91% 9% 0%
Bush 95% 45.5 36.2% 10% 90% 0%
Other 95% 3.6 2.8% 64% 17% 19%
Total 78.2 125.7 100% 48.1% 50.7% 1.2%
125.7 60.4 63.7 1.6
Plausible “True Vote” Scenario
95% Gore voter turnout
Kerry wins
by 8.0 million votes
Turnout Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV - 30.6 24.3% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 95% 46.0 36.6% 91% 9% 0%
Bush 95% 45.5 36.2% 10% 90% 0%
Other 95% 3.6 2.8% 64% 17% 19%
Total 95.1 125.7 100% 52.6% 46.4% 1.0%
125.7 66.2 58.2 1.3
Sensitivity Analysis
Kerry wins all scenarios in which Gore voter turnout is 76% or greater.
Scenario I: 95% Bush 2000 voter turnout vs. 76% Gore voter turnout
Kerry wins by 1.8m - a 50.1% share.
Scenario II: 99% Bush vs. 92% Gore turnout
Kerry wins by 5.1m - a 51.5% share.
Scenario III: 95% Bush vs. 92% Gore turnout
Kerry wins by 7.0m votes - a 52.2% vote share.
Scenario IV: 91% Bush vs. 92% Gore turnout
Kerry wins by 8.8m - a 53.0% share.
Bush2k Gore Voter Turnout in 2004
Voter 60.0% 68.0% 76.0% 84.0% 92.0%
Turnout
in'04 Kerry National Vote
91% 48.8% 49.8% 50.9% 51.9% 53.0%
93% 48.4% 49.5% 50.5% 51.6% 52.6%
95% 48.0% 49.1% 50.1% 51.2% 52.2%
97% 47.7% 48.7% 49.8% 50.8% 51.9%
99% 47.3% 48.4% 49.4% 50.5% 51.5%
Kerry Margin (millions)
91% (1.4) 1.1 3.7 6.2 8.8
93% (2.4) 0.2 2.8 5.3 7.9
95% (3.3) (0.7) 1.8 4.4 7.0
97% (4.2) (1.6) 0.9 3.5 6.0
99% (5.1) (2.6) 0.0 2.6 5.1