Within Precinct Discrepancy: Further Confirmation of a Kerry Landslide
TruthIsAll
The 2004 Exit Poll Evaluation Report was released in Jan. 2005 by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International for the National Election Pool (NEP).
Within Precinct Error (WPE) is defined as the difference in margin between the recorded vote and the exit poll. The state-wide WPE is the average discrepancy for all exit poll precincts. Within Precinct Discrepancy (WPD) is a more precise term and is used here. The corresponding unadjusted state exit poll shares were not provided by E-M in their report but are easily calculated and are the basis for this analysis.
The exit pollsters state that the exit poll discrepancies were not due to precinct sample selection:
“The exit poll estimates in the 2004 general election overstated John Kerry’s share of the vote nationally and in many states. There were 26 states in which the estimates produced by the exit poll data overstated the vote for John Kerry by more than one standard error, and there were four states in which the exit poll estimates overstated the vote for George W. Bush by more than one standard error. The inaccuracies in the exit poll estimates were not due to the sample selection of the polling locations at which the exit polls were conducted. We have not discovered any systematic problem in how the exit poll data were collected and processed”.
There were no problems in sample design, data collection and processing. That’s good. Then why not believe the results?
They claim the discrepancies do not support allegations of fraud:
“Exit polls do not support the allegations of fraud due to rigging of voting equipment. Our analysis of the difference between the vote count and the exit poll at each polling location in our sample has found no systematic differences for precincts using touch screen and optical scan voting equipment. We say this because these differences are similar to the differences for punch card voting equipment and less than the difference for mechanical voting equipment”.
They ignore the fact that significant discrepancies in touch screen and optical scanner precincts confirms the evidence that both are vulnerable to vote miscount - either locally or at the central tabulator. Just like punch cards are vulnerable (see Florida 2000). True, mechanical lever precincts had the highest discrepancies. But the average discrepancy for each type of voting machine was much greater than that of paper ballots.
They hypothesize that the discrepancies were due to Kerry voters responding at a higher (56/50) rate than Bush voters:
“It is difficult to pinpoint precisely the reasons that, in general, Kerry voters were more likely to participate in the exit polls than Bush voters. There were certainly motivational factors that are impossible to quantify, but which led to Kerry voters being less likely than Bush voters to refuse to take the survey.”
But this was contradicted by E-M’s own Final National Exit Poll which indicated that Bush 2000 voters comprised 43% (52.6m) of the 2004 electorate as compared to 37% (45.3m) Kerry voters. But there is more: Bush only had 50.46m votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5m died and another 2m did not return to vote in 2004. So no more than 46m (37.6%) Bush 2000 voters could have voted in 2004. The E-M hypothesis is reflected by the adjustments that had to be made to the raw exit poll data in order that the Final state and National exit polls would match the recorded vote.
This analysis compares the unadjusted exit poll data to the recorded vote count by categorizing the states where the largest and smallest discrepancies occurred.
These are the questions which need to be asked:
a) How come 19 of the 25 states with the largest exit poll discrepancies
were solid Kerry and battleground states?
Was it because these states were ripe for vote theft?
b) How come 11 of the 13 states with the lowest exit poll discrepancies were
solid Bush states?
Was it because there was no compelling incentive to steal
votes?
Using the WPD, Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll by 51.95% with 337 electoral votes. The Nov.1, 2004 Election Model, which was based on the final pre-election polls, projected that Kerry would win 337 electoral votes with 51.8% of the two-party vote. The only assumption was that he would capture 75% of the undecided vote. The expected 337 EV was calculated as the average of a 5000-trial Monte Carlo Simulation.
The Unadjusted exit poll (Kerry 51.95%) was based on the raw data (WPD).
The Best Survey Estimate (Kerry 51.02%) was based on the lowest SEDF (Standard Error on the Difference) using only the exit poll tallies.
The 12:40am Composite Estimate (Kerry 50.26%) is the weighted average of the Prior (pre-election) Estimate and the Best Survey Estimate. The Composite is most often the estimate used in the survey weighting process to create the exit poll analysis data during Election Day before the actual vote is reported. The statewide numbers were displayed on the analysis screens used by NEP members and subscribers.
The Final Exit Poll (Kerry 48.3%) was forced to match the initial 116.6m recorded votes. There were 122.3m total votes recorded. The final 6.7m were primarily late absentee and provisional ballots. Bush won 51.3% of the initial 116.6m but only 39.1% of the final 6.7m. That is a very red flag.
Note: Oregon did not have an exit poll as it voted 100% by mail. Kerry won a 51.3% share and 7 EV.
The following is a summary of the unadjusted exit polls categorized by WPD and for 16 Battleground states:
51 States (average 7.37% WPD, 538 EV)
Kerry won the exit poll in 27 states with a 51.95% share and
337 EV.
Kerry won the official vote in 20 with a 48.3% share and 251 EV.
Top 25 (9.95%, 335)
Nine were solid Kerry states; 10 Battleground.
Kerry won the exit poll in 18 with 54.9% and 255 EV.
Kerry won the official vote in 13 with 49.9% and 185 EV.
Bottom 25 (2.92%, 195)
Sixteen were solid Bush; 5 Battleground.
Kerry won the exit poll in 8 with 46.9% and 75 EV.
Kerry won the official vote in 6 with 45.4% and 59 EV.
Bottom 13 (1.17%, 99)
Eleven were solid Bush; one Battleground.
Kerry won the exit poll in 2 with 42.4% and 10 EV.
Kerry won the official vote in 1 with 41.8% and 3 EV.
16 Battleground (8.18%, 199)
Kerry won the exit poll in 14 with 53.0% and 173 EV.
Kerry won the official vote in 7 with 48.9% and 87 EV.
Three methods were used by E-M to calculate WPD:
VNS - Voter News Service (4 extreme precincts removed)
IM - Input Management screen (ALL precincts included)
DSS- Decision Summary screen (4 extreme precincts removed)
KEV is Kerry's electoral vote.
Unadjusted
Exit Polls (%)
Method
WPD Kerry Bush KEV
VNS 7.09 51.81 47.19 324
IM 7.37 51.95 47.05 337
DSS 7.77 52.15 46.84 324
Adjusted Exit Polls
Method WPD Kerry Bush KEV
GEO 5.01 51.04 48.49 301
Comp 3.60 50.26 49.11 288
Final - 48.27 50.73 251
The following analysis is based on the IM calculation method for WPD
(all precincts are included).
There is a high probability that the states marked with
an asterisk were stolen.
Total National Vote
Recorded
Vote Unadjusted Exit Poll
EV Kerry Bush Margin KEV Kerry Bush Margin WPD KEV
WtdAv TOTAL 48.27 50.73 (2.46) 251 51.95 47.05 4.91 7.37 337
Top 25 WPD States
Avg 335 49.9 49.1 0.8 185 54.9 44.1 10.8 9.95 255
AL 9 36.8 62.5 (25.6) - 41.8 57.5 (15.6) 10.0
AK 3 35.5 61.1 (25.5) - 40.2 56.4 (16.2) 9.3
CA 55 54.3 44.4 9.9 55 60.1 38.6 21.5 11.6 55
CT 7 54.3 43.9 10.4 7 62.3 35.9 26.4 16.0 7
DE 3 53.3 45.8 7.6 3 61.3 37.8 23.5 15.9 3
FL* 27 47.1 52.1 (5.0) - 51.0 48.2 2.8 7.8 27
HI 4 54.0 45.3 8.7 4 58.1 41.2 16.9 8.2 4
MD 10 55.9 42.9 13.0 10 59.6 39.3 20.3 7.3 10
MA 12 61.9 36.8 25.2 12 65.8 32.9 32.9 7.7 12
MN 9 51.1 47.6 3.5 9 55.7 43.0 12.7 9.2 9
MS 6 40.2 59.0 (18.9) - 49.4 49.8 (0.4) 18.5
NE 5 32.7 65.9 (33.2) - 37.0 61.5 (24.5) 8.7
NV* 5 47.9 50.5 (2.6) - 52.8 45.5 7.3 9.9 5
NH 4 50.2 48.9 1.4 4 57.2 41.9 15.4 14.0 4
NJ 15 52.9 46.2 6.7 15 57.5 41.7 15.8 9.1 15
NM* 5 49.0 49.8 (0.8) - 53.0 45.8 7.2 8.0 5
NY 31 58.4 40.1 18.3 31 64.5 34.0 30.5 12.2 31
NC* 15 43.6 56.0 (12.4) - 49.5 50.1 (0.5) 11.9
OH* 20 48.7 50.8 (2.1) - 54.0 45.5 8.5 10.6 20
PA 21 50.9 48.4 2.5 21 55.1 44.2 10.9 8.4 21
SC 8 40.9 58.0 (17.1) - 45.8 53.1 (7.4) 9.7
TX 34 38.2 61.1 (22.9) - 42.0 57.3 (15.3) 7.6
VT 3 58.9 38.8 20.1 3 66.5 31.2 35.3 15.2 3
VA* 13 45.5 53.7 (8.2) - 49.8 49.3 0.5 8.7 13
WA 11 52.8 45.6 7.2 11 56.8 41.6 15.2 8.0 11
Lowest 25 WPD States
Recorded
Vote Unadjusted Exit Poll
EV Kerry Bush Margin KEV Kerry Bush Margin WPD KEV
Avg 195 45.4 53.4 -7.7 59 46.9 52.0 -4.9 2.92 75
AZ 10 44.4 54.9 (10.5) - 44.5 54.7 (10.2) 0.3
AR 6 44.5 54.3 (9.8) - 45.2 53.7 (8.5) 1.3
CO* 9 47.0 51.7 (4.7) - 50.1 48.6 1.4 6.1 9
DC 3 89.2 9.3 79.8 3 90.6 7.9 82.6 2.8 3
GA 15 41.4 58.0 (16.6) - 42.0 57.3 (15.3) 1.3
ID 4 30.3 68.4 (38.1) - 32.3 66.4 (34.1) 4.0
IL 21 54.8 44.5 10.3 21 56.6 42.7 13.8 3.5 21
IN 11 39.3 59.9 (20.7) - 40.4 58.8 (18.5) 2.2
IA* 7 49.2 49.9 (0.7) - 50.7 48.4 2.3 3.0 7
KS 6 36.6 62.0 (25.4) - 37.2 61.5 (24.3) 1.1
KY 8 39.7 59.6 (19.9) - 39.9 59.4 (19.5) 0.4
LA 9 42.2 56.7 (14.5) - 43.5 55.4 (11.9) 2.6
ME 4 53.6 44.6 9.0 4 55.6 42.6 13.0 4.0 4
MI 17 51.2 47.8 3.4 17 54.4 44.6 9.8 6.4 17
MO* 11 46.1 53.3 (7.2) - 49.0 50.4 (1.4) 5.8
MT 3 38.6 59.1 (20.5) - 37.3 60.4 (23.1) (2.6)
ND 3 35.5 62.9 (27.4) - 34.6 63.7 (29.1) (1.7)
OK 7 34.4 65.6 (31.1) - 33.8 66.2 (32.3) (1.2)
RI 4 59.4 38.7 20.8 4 62.1 36.0 26.1 5.3 4
SD 3 38.4 59.9 (21.5) - 35.9 62.5 (26.6) (5.1)
TN 11 42.5 56.8 (14.3) - 43.2 56.1 (13.0) 1.3
UT 5 26.0 71.5 (45.5) - 28.1 69.4 (41.2) 4.3
WV 5 43.2 56.1 (12.9) - 40.2 59.0 (18.8) (5.9)
WI 10 49.7 49.3 0.4 10 52.1 46.9 5.2 4.8 10
WY 3 29.1 68.9 (39.8) - 32.6 65.4 (32.8) 7.0
Lowest 13 WPD States
Recorded
Vote Unadjusted Exit Poll
EV Kerry Bush Margin KEV Kerry Bush Margin WPD KEV
Avg 99 41.8 57.3 -15.5 10 42.4 56.7 -14.3 1.17 10
AZ 10 44.4 54.9 (10.5) - 44.5 54.7 (10.2) 0.3
AR 6 44.5 54.3 (9.8) - 45.2 53.7 (8.5) 1.3
DC 3 89.2 9.3 79.8 3 90.6 7.9 82.6 2.8 3
GA 15 41.4 58.0 (16.6) - 42.0 57.3 (15.3) 1.3
IN 11 39.3 59.9 (20.7) - 40.4 58.8 (18.5) 2.2
IA* 7 49.2 49.9 (0.7) - 50.7 48.4 2.3 3.0 7
KS 6 36.6 62.0 (25.4) - 37.2 61.5 (24.3) 1.1
KY 8 39.7 59.6 (19.9) - 39.9 59.4 (19.5) 0.4
LA 9 42.2 56.7 (14.5) - 43.5 55.4 (11.9) 2.6
MT 3 38.6 59.1 (20.5) - 37.3 60.4 (23.1) (2.6)
ND 3 35.5 62.9 (27.4) - 34.6 63.7 (29.1) (1.7)
OK 7 34.4 65.6 (31.1) - 33.8 66.2 (32.3) (1.2)
TN 11 42.5 56.8 (14.3) - 43.2 56.1 (13.0) 1.3
16 Battleground states
Recorded
Vote Unadjusted Exit Poll
EV Kerry Bush Margin KEV Kerry Bush Margin WPD KEV
Avg 199 48.9 50.2 -1.3 87 53.0 46.1 6.9 8.2 173
FL 27 47.1 52.1 (5.0) - 51.0 48.2 2.8 7.8 27
MN 9 51.1 47.6 3.5 9 55.7 43.0 12.7 9.2 9
NV 5 47.9 50.5 (2.6) - 52.8 45.5 7.3 9.9 5
NH 4 50.2 48.9 1.4 4 57.2 41.9 15.4 14 4
NJ 15 52.9 46.2 6.7 15 57.5 41.7 15.8 9.1 15
NM 5 49.0 49.8 (0.8) - 53.0 45.8 7.2 8 5
NC 15 43.6 56.0 (12.4) - 49.5 50.1 (0.5) 11.9 -
OH 20 48.7 50.8 (2.1) - 54.0 45.5 8.5 10.6 20
PA 21 50.9 48.4 2.5 21 55.1 44.2 10.9 8.4 21
VA 13 45.5 53.7 (8.2) - 49.8 49.3 0.5 8.7 13
WA 11 52.8 45.6 7.2 11 56.8 41.6 15.2 8 11
CO 9 47.0 51.7 (4.7) - 50.1 48.6 1.4 6.1 9
IA 7 49.2 49.9 (0.7) - 50.7 48.4 2.3 3 7
MI 17 51.2 47.8 3.4 17 54.4 44.6 9.8 6.4 17
MO 11 46.1 53.3 (7.2) - 49.0 50.4 (1.4) 5.8 -
WI 10 49.7 49.3 0.4 10 52.1 46.9 5.2 4.8 10