News Archive (October 25-28, 1999)

Archive News

October 25-28 1999

AZERBAIJANI FOREIGN MINISTER, PRESIDENTIAL ADVISER� RESIGN.
At a meeting of Azerbaijan's Security Council on 24
October,   Foreign Minister Tofik Zulfugarov submitted his resignation
to President Heidar Aliev, with whom he has disagreed on
the optimum approach to resolving the Karabakh conflict,
Turan reported. Eldar Namazov, who heads the presidential
Secretariat, told Reuters on 25 October he has also
informed Aliev of his desire to step down, but he declined to explain
why. Aliev has not yet accepted either resignation. LF

Copyright (c) 1999. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the
permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty,
1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036.
�� http://www.rferl.org
                                                          ��

ANALYSIS-Armenian killings may
delay peace deal
   �� YEREVAN, Oct 28 (Reuters) - The
   �� brazen killing of two of Armenia's top three
   �� politicians has pitched the former Soviet
   �� republic into uncertainty and will delay a
   �� possible peace deal with Azerbaijan,
   �� analysts said on Thursday.

   �� They said Prime Minister Vazgen
   �� Sarksyan, gunned down in the brutal
   �� Wednesday attack, was the real power in
   �� Armenia -- more powerful even than the
   �� president -- and that his slaying would
   �� leave a huge hole at the top of the country's
   �� elite.

   �� First indications are that the gunmen, led by
   �� an eccentric journalist and political activist
   �� Nairi Unanyan, were carrying out a bizarre
   �� personal protest against government
   �� corruption, poverty and what they called
   �� ``bloodsuckers'' in high offices.

   �� The first to die under the hail of automatic
   �� weapons fire was Sarksyan, and Unanyan
   �� told Reuters that the premier had been his
   �� prime target.

   �� Six other high-ranking officials were killed
   �� in the shootout, including veteran
   �� Soviet-era leader Karen Demirchyan,
   �� along with Sarksyan the co-leader of the
   �� ruling Unity alliance.

   �� There is no sign the action was out of
   �� hostility to a rumoured peace deal with
   �� Azerbaijan to end the long conflict over its
   �� disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region.

   �� But fallout from the attack may overwhelm
   �� the government of President Robert
   �� Kocharyan for some time, putting off any
   �� possible deal.

   �� ``There is no question that the peace
   �� process will at least slow down,'' said one
   �� Western diplomat.

   �� Ethnic Armenian separatists in Karabakh
   �� fought a war with Azeri forces in which
   �� 35,000 people died until a 1994 ceasefire.

   �� The dispute has soured ties between
   �� Armenia and Azerbaijan although
   �� Kocharyan and Azeri President Haydar
   �� Aliyev have recently held a series of
   �� unprecedented, top-secret talks.

   �� Armenia denies it was directly involved in
   �� the war but has been negotiating on behalf
   �� of its ethnic kin in Karabakh.

   �� As both sides say a deal appears closer
   �� than ever, perceived concessions have
   �� already stirred passions in Azerbaijan and
   �� led to the dismissal or resignation of key
   �� Aliyev officials.

   �� BEARDED POET WAS REAL
   �� POWER

   �� Although Kocharyan is officially head of
   �� state, few question that Sarksyan, a
   �� 40-year-old bearded bachelor, was the
   �� real power in the generally poor former
   �� Soviet republic of 3.8 million which gained
   �� its independence in 1991.

   �� Sarksyan had served as defence minister
   �� until earlier this year and the influential army
   �� was still loyal to the one-time physical
   �� education teacher, who later became a
   �� writer and poet before turning to politics.

   �� He was adored by some as a hero of the
   �� conflict with Azerbaijan for leading
   �� Armenian volunteers into battle in
   �� Karabakh. Others saw him as an odious
   �� force pulling political strings from behind
   �� the scenes.

   �� ``Kocharyan played second fiddle to
   �� Sarksyan,'' said Karina Khodikyan of the
   �� Yerevan political and social monthly
   �� magazine Gurun (Spring).

   �� ``Sarksyan's death, combined with
   �� Demirchyan's and the others, leaves the
   �� political system beheaded to an extent.''

   �� The uncertainty was underlined on
   �� Thursday by a Defence Ministry statement
   �� calling for the dismissals of the security and
   �� interior ministers for failing to ensure the
   �� safety of the officials and preventing the
   �� massacre from happening.

   �� A Kocharyan aide said she did not see the
   �� statement, read out over state radio, as any
   �� cause for alarm or as a sign the military,
   �� upset over Sarksyan's killing, planned to
   �� seize power.

ANALYSIS

Ultra-nationalist gunmen attacked the Armenian Parliament Oct. 27, killing
Prime Minister Vazgen Sarkisian and several other top government
officials. President Robert Kocharian is negotiating with the gunmen, who
hold an estimated 30 hostages in Yerevan, Armenias capital.

This situation is a significant strategic opportunity for Russia, which
can use the crisis to step-up involvement in Armenia, with the larger goal
of asserting power over the entire Caucasus region. Caucasus stability is
necessary for Russia. Economically, the southern Caucasus is the planned
highway for the West to circumvent Russia in exploiting Caspian and
Central Asian oil. If Russia is to retain control of those resources, it
must maintain a presence in and pressure on the South Caucasus.

But Russia first needs control of the region. Because of its strained
relations with Georgia and Chechnya due to the Chechen war, it does not
have control. Both Georgia and Azerbaijan are thorns in Russias side. Both
actively support the Chechens and are actively courting NATO. And although
Russia has a close relationship with Armenia, it has not had a legitimate
reason to increase its authority there. The crisis gives Russia its needed
opening into the region (my highlight).

Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan are generally stable; however, in
the course of its war in Chechnya, Russia has accused Azerbaijan of
supporting Chechen rebels, possibly with weapons, a safe haven and
uninhibited passage over their borders. Russia has also accused Azerbaijan
of allowing the Chechen rebels to maintain an information center in Baku,
the Azerbaijani capital. Azerbaijan denied these charges.

The southern Caucasus is wracked with political and economic instability,
further inhibiting Russias control of the region. Armenia and Azerbaijan
have had a long-standing, and often violent, feud over the autonomous
region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which lies in Azerbaijani territory.

Recently, the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders have held numerous
conferences negotiating the future of Nagorno-Karabakh. They expected to
sign a preliminary agreement at the Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) conference slated for Nov. 17-19 in Istanbul.
This issue is of great concern to the citizens of both countries. In fact,
Nairi Unanian, the alleged lead gunmen in the attack on Parliament today,
had formerly been allied with a political party whose main goal was the
independence of Nagorno-Karabakh.

However, if the gunmen hoped to alter the political process, they would
more likely have targeted Armenian President Robert Kocharian. He was the
main negotiator in the recent talks on Nagorno-Karabakh. Prime Minister
Vazgen Sarkisian had actually been in support of Nagorno independence, as
was evidenced by his leading the volunteer army that fought there and his
term as president of the region.

Georgian-Russian relations have fared much worse due to the Chechen issue.
The two are engaged in a political confrontation over Russias campaign in
Chechnya. Russia claims Georgia is allowing Chechen arms smuggling and the
flow of Chechen rebels across its border. Georgia stated it would not
close its border to Chechen refugees. Also, Russia has amassed a huge
amount of military equipment on the southern rim of the North Caucasus,
which is in violation of the Conventional Arms Reduction Treaty. At the
November OSCE summit, Georgia is expected to insist that Russia adhere to
the treatys prescribed provisions.

Considering Russias tense relations with the rest of the region, Armenia
is of central strategic importance to Russia. The hostage situation in
Yerevan may give Russia the excuse it needs to move heavy power into
Armenia. If Armenia invites Russian intervention either to resolve the
hostage situation or to secure political stability after the crisis ends,
Russia can fall back on its historic tradition of exploiting a crisis to
usurp power.

All Russia needs is for its strategic partner, Armenia, to ask for its
help unless it decides to fabricate its own excuse and act unilaterally.
If invited, Russia can increase its cooperation with the Armenian
government, and potentially have significant influence, in light of the
political chaos that will inevitably follow the numerous assassinations.
Also, Russia can increase its military force in the region, giving it the
leverage to have more influence.

There are two impediments to Russias involvement. First, Armenia is
already closely allied with Russia, but is an independent nation that does
not desire a permanent Russian presence, which Armenias leadership must
realize would ensue if Russia moved in. Second, Russias forces are already
spread thinly and would be hard pressed to find the resources necessary to
pull together an influential amount of power.

Regardless of these obstacles, Russia will do what it can to turn out the
winner in the end. If Russia takes the opportunity to assert more control
in Armenia either by invitation or design Russian power in the Caucasus
could be significantly increased, completely swaying the regional balance
of power.

Source: Habarlar-L Digest 1145
referring to VOA's P. Heinlein in Moscow.
10.27.99

Russia Uses Armenian Crisis to Own Ends

Russia is taking advantage of the Oct. 27 attack on the Armenian
Parliament to promote its own policies and boost support for the campaign
in the Caucasus. President Boris Yeltsin indicated indignation at the
attack and expressed Russias readiness for cooperation with and support of
Armenia in this difficult time.

So far, this support has taken the form of the Federal Security Services
anti-terrorist unit known as Alpha Group, which arrived in Yerevan at 2200
GMT Oct. 27, in response to a request from the Armenian leadership. The
group is expected to work closely with the highest levels of Armenian
security forces, giving Russia a valuable seat of influence in the
now-fragile Armenia.

As we expected, Russia is playing the event to its advantage. In
statements made Oct. 28, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin used the
attack to bolster his image and justify Russias increased military
presence in the region. The attack will help argue for both the fighting
in Chechnya and the large increases in the Russian defense budget.

At a press conference in Vladivostok Oct. 28, Putin said the events in
Yerevan, "confirmed again that it is necessary to fight terrorism without
any compromise and up to the end." He also stressed the attack as a sign
Russia was "doing everything correctly, resolving the problem of terrorism
in Russia." He was referring to Russias campaign against rebels in
Chechnya, where last night Russia flew the most sorties of any day since
the war entered Chechnya. The clamp-down on Chechnya and the statements
confirming the need to combat terrorism both act to strengthen Putins
image as the man behind the Russian move into Chechnya. Putin can also use
this event as proof that Russia is justified in its recent dramatic
increase for defense spending in the 2000 budget.

A Russian Foreign Ministry statement, also from Oct. 28, said the attack
on Armenias Parliament "is an added reminder that the world community must
pool efforts in the fight against international terrorism, whatever the
form it assumes and whatever slogan it uses to cover its intentions."
Russia is using statements like these to build an argument that Russian
power should be called upon to defeat terrorist incidents, especially in
former Soviet regions. Russia needs stability in the Caucasus and Central
Asia for its own security. In order to ensure this, it must control the
region. The attempt to regain Chechnya is the first move in reasserting
this control.

Although the attack on parliament was a tragedy for Armenia, Russia is
doing what it must do under the circumstances. It is holding the event up
as an example of why the Caucasus and Central Asia need Russian influence
and military guidance.

1998, 1999 Stratfor, Inc. All rights reserved.

Early November

ARMENIAN PARLIAMENT ELECTS NEW SPEAKER.

Meeting in emergency session on 2 November, deputies elected People's Party member
Armen Khachatrian as parliamentary speaker, RFE/RL's Yerevan
bureau reported. Khachatrian formerly headed the
parliamentary Committee on Foreign Affairs. Gagik Aslanian,
who is also a member of the People's Party, and Tigran
Torosian of the Republican Party were elected deputy
speakers. All three candidacies were endorsed by a large
majority of deputies. Republican Party chairman Andranik
Markarian, who had been tipped for the speaker's post,
proposed all three candidacies, explaining that leaders of
all factions in the parliament had decided unanimously that
it is important to observe the status quo, whereby the
speaker and one of his deputies are members of the People's
Party and the second deputy speaker a member of the
Republican Party, according to Noyan Tapan. Those two parties
constitute the majority Miasnutiun parliament faction.

Copyright (c) 1999. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the
       permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty,
       1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036.
                             http://www.rferl.org

ARMENIAN NATIONAL SECURITY MINISTER TENDERS RESIGNATION

   Serzh Sarkisian submitted his resignation to President Kocharian on 1 November, Interfax
   reported, citing the presidential press service. On 28 October, the Defense Ministry had
   demanded the resignation of Sarkisian, the interior minister, and the prosecutor-general for failing
   to prevent
   the killings the previous day or to resolve two earlier murders of military officials (see "RFE/RL
   Newsline," 29 October 1999). Kocharian has not yet accepted the resignation of either
   Sarkisian or Interior Minister Suren Abrahamian, arguing that the present cabinet should remain
   in office
   until the naming of a new premier.

   Copyright (c) 1999. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the
        permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty,
        1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036.
                              http://www.rferl.org

    "The peace contract proposed by the U.S. on the resettlement of the A Z E R B A I J A N
    BULLETIN-121 (182)
    November 04 1999
    This bulletin is distributed to 450 subscribers in 42 countries
    To receive the Bulletin or the previous issues contact ANDF
    Or just click here: http://www.andf.ctc.net.az
                                                      * * *
    Also published in the Turkustan Newsletter
    [http://www.turkiye.net/sota/sota.html] distributed to
    2888 subscribers in 65 countries

    Editor: ULVI HAKIMOV
    Translator: RUHIYYA JAMILLY

    JELYU JELEV: "THE PROPOSED PEACE CONTRACT OF THE U.S. CAN CAUSE TO A NEW WAR"

    Karabakh conflict can cause a new war for not solving the problem
    principally", stated Jelyu Jelev, former president of Bulgaria, in his
    press conference in Azerbaijan.

    He also noted that the territorial conflicts should be solved from the
    viewpoint of territorial integrity of the states. Speaking on his meetings
    with the leading political leaders of the country, the former president
    said that there is a single attitude to the integration with the West in
    Azerbaijan and that is why there is not difference of opinion among the
    politicians of the country, but it is not so in Bulgaria.

    Mr. Jelev said that the democratization process in Eastern European
    countries is not so normal. In his opinion, the reason of this is that now
    in some Eastern European countries the socialists of the former communist
    party govern the governments.

    In the words of Mr. Jelev, the new generation of politicians that accept
    democracy as a manner of thought and living will be able to save the
    Eastern European countries from communist thoughts.
    * ANDF

NGOs ARE AGAINST CAPITULATION

    According to information given by Ali Guliev, chairman of the Congress of
    Non-governmental organizations of Azerbaijan, the organizations of the
    Congress have issued a statement on the peaceful regulation of the Upper
    Karabakh conflict.

    In case of being signed a document that will blow the territorial integrity
    of Azerbaijan, the NGOs of Azerbaijan will take a strict position in this
    issue, stated Mr. Guliev and noted that they are ready to support any steps
    put for releasing the Azerbaijani lands.
    * ANDF

    Copyright from HABARLAR-L
    From: Ace <baguirov
    To: Azerbaijan News Distribution List <Habarlar-L
    Subject: AzadInform #237(317) 04/11/1999
    Date: Thu, 4 Nov 1999 09:59:58 -0800 (PST)

   Resolution of the Upper Karabakh conflict must be based on decisions and resolutions of the UN Security Council and OSCE Lisbon and Budapest Summits

    Baku. 04..11.99. /AzadInform/. Azerbaijani Diaspora, functioning in Russia
    made a statement over resolution of the Karabakh conflict and up-coming
    Istanbul Summit. Authors of the statement expressed their worry about the
    OSCE Istanbul Summit and recent events and stressed, the Summit will
    stimulate establishment of just peace in the region. Resolution of the
    problem must be based on decisions and resolutions of the UN Security
    Council and OSCE Lisbon and Budapest Summits, authors of the statement said.
    They laid stress on necessity to provide protection of rights of all
    national minorities living in Upper Karabakh.
    Professor Z. Godjayev, chairman of the Azerbaijani National and Cultural
    Autonomy in Russia, F. Pasiyev, member of the coordination Council on
    International Relations by the Saratov province's governor, deputy chairman
    of the Azerbaijani National and Cultural Autonomy in Russia and F. Farajov,
    deputy chairman of the "Ojag" Society, operating in Moscow, chief of the
    "Buran" Space Vehicles Manufacturing Complex signed the statement.

    Copyright HABARLAR-L

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