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Habarlar-L

Edited on February 3, 2000

PRESIDENT ALIYEV ON THE VISIT TO DAVOCE AND ITS OUTCOMES

BAKU, 31 JANUARY, AZER-PRESS.
President Aliyev said his visit to Davoce and participation in
the Global economic forum there were fruitful. He
said the countries involved in the Great Silk Way had a meeting in Davoce
and discussed the haulage of the Caspian oil via Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
pipeline.
Of the bilateral meetings President Aliyev emphasised the encounter with
US President Clinton, US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and US
co-chairman in the OSCE Minsk Group Keri Kavano. 'USA demonstrated
considerable interest in resolving this problem soonest,' said President
Aliyev. He also had a meeting with Armenian President Robert Kocharyan
under the auspices of Ms Albright on 29 January.
'We decided with Mr Kocharyan that the negotiations should be continued
until such time as the mutually acceptable mode of resolving the conflict
was found,' said President Aliyev.
The US side underlined the earnest attitude towards the search for a peace
solution, and expressed the hope that the successful dialogue between
Armenia and Azerbaijan would make it possible to open the border between
Armenia and Turkey and provide the South Caucasus with economic support
for their future development. 'I met with the Prime Minister and Foreign
Minister of Turkey in Davoce, and they confirmed, once again, that they
would restore diplomatic relations with Armenia after the peace is made
over Nagorno Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan,' said Mr Aliyev.
He informed that he protested against the plans of Swiss companies Franc
Muller and Andre Group to work in Nagorno Karabakh. President Aliyev said
this during the meeting with President and Finance Minister of
Switzerland, and added that no such operations acceptable until Nagorno
Karabakh remained under Armenian occupation. 'The leaders of Switzerland
assured me that they had not known of these plans, and that necessary
steps would be taken,' added Mr Aliyev.
President Aliyev also had a meeting with Iran's foreign minister Kemal
Kharrazi, and they agreed that Azerbaijan's foreign minister Vilayat
Guliyev would go to Tehran in advance of the official visit of President
Aliyev to Iran.
President Aliyev also informed of his meetings with the management of
BPAmoco, Itochu and other companies and business circles.

Copyright Habarlar-L

Edited on February 2, 2000

ARMENIAN, AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENTS DISCUSS MUTUAL
'CONCESSIONS.'

During their talks in Davos on the sidelines
of the World Economic Forum, Robert Kocharian and Heidar
Aliev discussed the possibility of unspecified "reciprocal
concessions" aimed at "normalizing" bilateral relations,
Aliev told journalists on his return to Baku on 30 January.
ITAR-TASS quoted the Azerbaijani president as describing his
talks with Kocharian as "positive."

Copyright RFE/RL

Karabakh foreign minister lambasts Azeri protest note over foreign
investment

Source: Snark news agency, Yerevan, in Russian 0600 gmt 29 Jan 00
Text of report by Armenian news agency Snark on 29th January

Yerevan, 28th January: In conditions when the OSCE Minsk Group cochairs on
Nagornyy Karabakh are expressing their readiness to promote the region's
economic rehabilitation and the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents are
making efforts to establish an atmosphere of trust in the region, a protest
note from the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry about the intention of private
foreign companies to make investments in the Nagornyy Karabakh economy looks
like nonsense, Nagornyy Karabakh Republic [NKR] Foreign Minister Naira
Melkumyan said, commenting to Snark news agency on the note from the
Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry to the Swiss government in connection with the
intention of private Swiss companies, Frank Muller and the Andre group, to
organize the production of watches, jewels, and carry out banking activities
etc. on Nagornyy Karabakh territory.

The minister expressed perplexity over why the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry,
which assures the international community of its aspiration to peace and
stability, but not to war, needs to demonstrate efforts aimed at scuppering
the process of economic development. Such behaviour by Azerbaijan, she
pointed out, proves once again the impossibility of joint coexistence in a
country whose incumbent leaders are in fact trying to create obstacles in
the way of Nagornyy Karabakh's economic development.

On the other hand, the note from the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry proves
that the Azerbaijani leadership has not yet realized that states do not
meddle in the affairs of private companies, and particularly, in their
investment programmes. From this point of view, the Azerbaijani Foreign
Ministry's actions run counter to international norms, the NKR foreign
minister stressed.


AZERBAIJANI, ARMENIAN LEADERS TO CONTINUE DIALOG
BAKU. Jan 31 (Interfax)- Azerbaijani President Gaidar Aliyev and Armenian
President Robert Kocharian are aiming at a peaceful settlement of the
Azeri-Armenian conflict and plan to continue the dialog, Aliyev said at Baku
airport on Monday upon his return from the World Economic Forum in Davos.
The presidents had their previous meeting during the CIS summit in Moscow.

The Karabakh settlement was also discussed with U.S. Secretary of State
Madeleine Albright, Aliyev said. The United States is interested in the
soonest possible settlement by political means, he said.

It is inadmissible for Swiss companies to take part in any projects in
Nagorno-Karabakh until the complete settlement of the Azeri- Armenian
conflict, Aliyev told Swiss leaders in Davos.

Last Friday he sent a note to the Swiss Foreign Ministry to protest against
the intention of Swiss companies to cooperate with Nagorno-Karabakh. The
note referred to Armenian sources saying that two Swiss companies, Frank
Muller and Andre Group, planned to launch a production of clocks and
watches, to go into banking, jewelry-making and housing construction and to
modernize the agricultural industry "on the Armenian occupied territory of
Nagorno-Karabakh." The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry "will find ways to
prevent the participation of the aforesaid companies in dubious economic
projects," the note said.

Aliyev had a brief meeting with U.S. President Bill Clinton in Davos. He
said he was impressed by Clinton's speech at the Forum, which outlined a
world political strategy for the new century. The American president said
mankind would develop scientific-technical progress and settle all
disputable issues by political means in this century, Aliyev remarked.

Copyright 2000 RUSSICA Information Inc. - RusData DiaLine
Russian Press Digest


First Shadow Falls On Bright Background

by Armen Khanbabyan

Armenian leaders confused by Moscow's new approach to CIS problems.


President Robert Kocharyan of Armenia gave a high estimate to the CIS summit
held in Moscow a few days ago, writes NEZAVISIMAYA GAZETA. He thinks,
however, that the Commonwealth countries are as yet unprepared for the
creation of a free trade zone on account of differences in the state of
their market reforms.

He also said that his dialogue with President Geidar Aliyev of Azerbaijan on
the Nagorno - Karabakh problem would be continued. As is common knowledge,
their latest meeting took place during the Moscow summit and the next one
would in all evidence be held in Davos one of these days. "We will attempt
to step up the process of settlement," remarked Kocharyan, adding that he
did not like "to forecast the results."

His caution is quite understandable, says the paper. Armenian observers paid
particular attention to acting President Vladimir Putin's statement to the
effect that Moscow saw the territorial integrity principle as its priority.
There are fears that Armenia and Karabakh may find themselves in a losing
situation, since the Kremlin, judging by all appearances, is intent on a
more consistent application of these approaches to the entire post-Soviet
space. This, in turn, may weaken the Armenian position in the peace-making
process.

Kocharyan, while commenting on the Putin statement, claimed that it mostly
referred to Chechnya, where a fight was on against terrorism, whereas what
took place in Nagorno - Karabakh was implementation of the people's right to
self-determination. However, his Azeri counterpart, Geidar Aliyev,
interpreted the statement in the opposite sense, saying that he "felt
positive changes in the Russian leadership's attitude to Azerbaijan." There
is no doubt that from now on Baku will be more confident in defending its
position, says the paper.

These goings-on may mean that the hitherto cloudless Armenian - Russian
relations are in for a serious test quite soon. In any event, the paradigm
of the peace-making process is likely to undergo a definite transformation
and the Armenian diplomacy will have to use its utmost efforts to maintain
the existing level of mutual understanding with the international mediators.
It will not be easy in view of the Russian position, says the paper in
conclusion.

SOURCE: NEZAVISIMAYA GAZETA, p. 5

All news are copied with permission from Habarlar-L Newslist

Karabakh official says enclave will not observe peace accord
reached by Armenian, Azeri leaders


SOURCE: Source: ANS TV, Baku, in Azeri 1100 gmt 31 Jan 00
Text of report by Azerbaijani TV station ANS on 31st January

[Presenter] The foreign minister of the self-styled Nagornyy Karabakh
Republic [NKR], Naira Melkumyan, expressed her attitude towards the
negotiations between the presidents of the two countries [Armenia and
Azerbaijan, Robert Kocharyan and Heydar Aliyev] in an exclusive interview
with ANS [TV].

[Correspondent] The foreign minister of the self-styled NKR, Naira
Melkumyan, says that the self-proclaimed NKR government will not observe the
conditions of any agreement reached as a result of the negotiations between
the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents.

If a peace agreement on the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict resolution is reached
between Azerbaijan and Armenia, then it is pointless to pin hopes on
Nagornyy Karabakh observing the conditions of this agreement.

Commenting on Naira Melkumyan's opinion, the head of the foreign relations
department of the Presidential Executive Staff, Novruz Mammadov, said that
the Nagornyy Karabakh problem was not being resolved at the level of this
woman.

Habarlar-L

NKR CONSIDERS RUSSIA AND IRAN AS ITS
POLITICAL PARTNERS


The so-called foreign minister of the self-proclaimed
Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR), Naira Melkumian
doesnt exclude the possibility of new proposals which are to
come from the OSCE Minsk Groups co-chairs. According to
her, these proposals wont mean anything new and will be
based on the previous principles, particularly, the common
state concept. Khankendi greets the dialogue between Azeri
and Armenian presidents considering that these contacts first of
all serve the cause of relieving the regional tension and
establishing the atmosphere of mutual trust, Melkumian said.
The NKR official also noted that the position of official
Khankendi hasnt changed: any solution of the conflict may be
reached and realized only with participation of
Nagorno-Karabakh. She said as follows: We support the
concept of formation of the regional security system in the
Caucasus and reckon that this system must become sort of a
cooperation forum for the whole region. A forum whose policy
should be aimed at cooperation and mutual respect.
Melkumian stressed the necessity and importance of Irans
participation in this system. According to her, Khankendi greets
the statement made by Russian Acting President Vladimir Putin
on Russias readiness to become a guarantor of possible
compromise solution of the Karabakh problem. The head of the
Azeri Presidential Administrations foreign relations department,
Novruz Mamedov said Azerbaijan is hoping its national interests
will be taken into account when making new proposals.

ANS News, February 1, 2000

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia assess prospects in wake of CIS summit

PORTENTS OF THE MOSCOW SUMMIT. Russia's Acting President
Vladimir Putin threw allied Armenia into disarray at the recent summit
of the CIS (see the Monitor, January 26, 28). Putin came down
strongly on the side of the principle of territorial integrity of
states, as opposed to the principle of national self-
determination, for purposes of settling conflicts in the North and
South Caucasus. He defined the basis for any conflict resolution
as "absolute recognition of the territorial integrity of sovereign
states." Moscow's position, in the stark form in which it is
currently being expressed, reflects Russia's own difficulties in
Chechnya. It also happens to suit Georgia's interests in Abkhazia.

That position, if adhered to in the negotiations over Karabakh,
would clearly work against Armenia and in favor of Azerbaijan. The
Armenian side, however, has been prompt to devise its
counterargument. It concedes that the territorial integrity
principle is applicable to Chechnya, where in any case an
"antiterrorist struggle" is being conducted and deserves support.
But it insists that the problem of Karabakh is fundamentally
different, and that national-self determination is the only viable
solution there.

With Yerevan defending what it describes as its "separate
position," a somewhat paradoxical situation has ensued, in which
Russia's sole ally in the region differs with Moscow on a
seemingly fundamental issue, while Azerbaijan and Georgia--the
countries which seek to limit Russian influence in the region--
agree with Moscow.

In practical terms, Russia's current position will affect the
negotiations over Karabakh as long as the dust swirls in Chechnya.
Once that dust settles, Moscow will almost certainly revert to its
accustomed ambiguity, which has allowed it for years to support
the secessions of Karabakh, Abkhazia and Transdniester in
practice, pay lip service to the territorial integrity of
Azerbaijan, Georgia and Moldova, and defend Russia's own
territorial integrity through every means including military
force, the use of which it has explicitly barred in the three
aforementioned cases.

The current tactical shift in Russia's position has a precedent in
1995-96, when the Chechen factor similarly forced Moscow to
embrace unambiguously the territorial integrity principle. Once
the 1996 peace agreements had seemingly shelved the Chechen
problem, however, Moscow returned to self-serving equivocation in
its policy toward CIS countries affected by secessions. It was at
that juncture that Russia came up with its proposals for the
"common states" of Georgia-Abkhazia, Azerbaijan-Karabakh and
Moldova-Transdniester.

President Haidar Aliev's assessment of the Moscow summit is
colored by Putin's shift in the Armenian-Azerbaijani dispute.
Post-summit statements of Aliev and his top aides speak of a
positive shift in Moscow's approach to the South Caucasus in
general and in Russian-Azerbaijani relations in particular. By the
same token, Armenian reactions are jittery, even suggesting that
Yerevan might be well advised to reconsider its one-sided reliance
on Russia. Such reflexive reactions in both Baku and Yerevan do
not seem to give proper weight to the record and experience of
recent years (Noyan-Tapan, Snark, AzadInform, ANS News, January
26-31).

The Georgian leadership tried at this summit to defuse the
tensions which Moscow had whipped up in recent months, to puncture
any pretexts for an extension of Russian military operations from
Chechnya into Georgia, and to resist any concessions to Moscow at
the expense of Georgia's national sovereignty. The summit's
aftermath suggests that Georgia may have attained those goals at
least temporarily and scored a tactical success. Foreign Affairs
Minister Irakly Menagarishvili spoke of a "beginning of
normalization in Russian-Georgian relations" at his post-summit
briefing in Tbilisi.

The Russian side dropped its public demand to deploy Russian
border troops opposite Chechnya on the Georgian side of the
Russian-Georgian border. An "anti-terrorism" agreement, just
concluded by the Russian and Georgian Internal Affairs ministries
(see the Monitor, January 25), almost certainly refers to police
measures to be taken by either side on its own territory, not to
cross-border deployments and not to the border troops, which
troops in any case do not come under the Internal Affairs
Ministry's authority. The start of the border monitoring mission
of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE)
has already forced Moscow and its generals in the North Caucasus
to tone down their baseless allegations that Georgia assists
Chechen rebels through that border (see the Monitor, December 2,
13, 21, 1999, January 7, 13). With the OSCE's monitoring mission
set to expand in the weeks and months ahead, Moscow will have been
deprived of any semblance of a case for "hot pursuit" operations
across the border into Georgia.

At the summit, Putin refused to rescind the threat of introducing
visa requirements for Georgian citizens traveling to or residing
in Russia, but neither did he evidence any intention to impose
visas any time soon. That measure, if introduced as Putin himself
had earlier ordered, would inflict significant losses on the
Georgian economy (see the Monitor, November 12, Fortnight in
Review, November 19, 1999). Shevardnadze parried the threat by
hinting at countermeasures which would affect Russian interests in
Georgia, not least the Russian troops and their dependents. On
their return from the summit, Shevardnadze and Menagarishvili
indicated that Moscow has come to understand two truths: First,
that the visa regime would prove to be a "two-edged instrument,"
and, second, that it would destroy one of the few remaining
mechanisms in the CIS that are still operational and hold the
organization together--namely, the 1992 Bishkek agreement on
visa-free travel among the member countries.

The Abkhazia conflict had figured prominently on this summit's
prescheduled agenda, as it usually if futilely does at CIS
summits. Virtually on the eve of the event, however, Shevardnadze
decided to withdraw that issue from the discussion, citing three
grounds for his decision: first, that Putin is "unfamiliar with
the details of this subject"; second, that Georgia has in any case
"no problem with the other CIS countries' position on Abkhazia"--a
clear hint that Georgia's problem lies with the Russian position;
and third, that there would be little point raising the issue
simply in order to obtain yet another pro-forma CIS resolution,
which the Abkhaz would yet again ignore.

Putin's emphatic endorsement of the principle of territorial
integrity of states at this summit may have surprised Tbilisi no
less than it did Yerevan. This may explain Shevardnadze's post-
summit announcement that he would reintroduce the issue of
Abkhazia prominently on the agenda of the next CIS summit,
scheduled for April. A disappointed Abkhaz leadership reacted with
the warning that it would ignore any resolution in April, if it
goes against Abkhaz interests; and that Sukhumi recognizes the
authority of the CIS only for purposes of deploying "peacekeeping
troops" in the Abkhaz-Georgian conflict theater. Ahead of the
April summit, Tbilisi is redoubling efforts to move the main
negotiations with Abkhazia into a non-CIS format--namely, the
Coordinating Group in which Russian influence is balanced by that
of Western countries (Prime-News, Kavkasia-Press, January 24, 27-
28, 30).
-------------------------------------------------------
http://www.jamestown.org
Tuesday, February 1, 2000 - Vol. VI, No. 22
MONITOR -- A DAILY BRIEFING ON THE POST-SOVIET STATES

Habarlar-L

Edited on 31.01.2000

President satisfied with Davos trip results

Baku. 31.01.2000. /AzadInform/. Yesterday President of Azerbaijan Heydar Aliyev
returned from Swiss city Davos where he participated in the World Economic
Forum. At the "Bina" airport the head of state held a briefing on results of the
visit. Stressing on meetings held in the framework of the Davos forum with heads
and officials of other states, Heydar Aliyev said, a special attention was paid
to the Upper Karabakh problem because many countries are interested in peaceful
resolution of the conflict.

Commenting on information on activity of Swiss companies in Upper Karabakh
Heydar Aliyev stated: "In connection with this there were held negotiations with
President and Finance minister of Switzerland and intentions of these companies
will be prevented".

Touching upon dialogue with Armenian President Robert Kocharyan, Heydar Aliyev
declared bilateral negotiations will be held in the future too.

Copyright Habarlar-L

U.S. REGISTERS PROGRESS IN KARABAKH PEACE PROCESS.

A senior U.S. State Department official said in Davos on 28 January
that "there is clearly movement" in the Karabakh peace
process, AP and Reuters reported. "We are further ahead than
before," he added. Armenian President Robert Kocharian and
his Azerbaijani counterpart, Heidar Aliev, met for talks the
previous day on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in
Davos, and on 29 January held separate meetings with U.S.
Secretary of State Madeleine Albright. No details of those
talks were revealed. Kocharian and Aliev, together with
Kyrgyzstan's President Askar Akaev, Kazakhstan's Prime
Minister Qasymzhomart Toqaev, and the Turkish and Iranian
foreign ministers, also participated in a 28 January
roundtable during which participants unanimously agreed that
the Silk Road Project to revive east-west trade routes will
have a positive impact on the situation in the region. LF

AZERBAIJAN PROTESTS SWISS INVESTMENT IN KARABAKH.
Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry on 25 January lodged an
official protest with its Swiss counterpart in connection
with the stated intention of two Swiss companies to begin the
production of clocks and jewelry in the unrecognized Nagorno-
Karabakh Republic and to embark on banking and agricultural
projects there, Armenian news agencies reported on 29 January
quoting the enclave's Foreign Minister Naira Melkumian. The
Azerbaijani statement termed the Swiss companies' plans an
encroachment on Azerbaijan's territorial integrity and
appealed to the Swiss government to prevent their
implementation. Representatives of Switzerland's Frank Muller
company visited Nagorno-Karabakh in July 1999. Armenian
President Robert Kocharian met in Davos on 29 January with
the head of the second Swiss company planning to begin
operations in the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, Armenian
Television reported. LF

Copyright RFE/RL

Edited on 30.01.2000

Azerbaijan-Armenia Settlement Urged
By The Associated Press

DAVOS, Switzerland (AP) -- A long-simmering territorial
dispute between two former Soviet republics was pushed a
bit further toward settlement today as Secretary of State
Madeleine Albright held back-to-back meetings with the
presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan.

At stake was the future of Nagorno-Karabakh, a territory
in Azerbaijan populated mostly by Armenians.  It declared
independence in 1988 (self-proclamation of independence was in 1992-my note)
and separatists helped by Armenia drove out Azeri troops.
A truce was declared in 1994, but sporadic fighting continued.

One formula under discussion is to give the territory
``the highest degree of autonomy'' within Armenia (typo-read Azerbaijan-my note),
said a senior U.S.  official who participated in Albright's
meetings with Presidents Robert Kocharian of Armenia and
Geider Aliyev of Azerbaijan.

Declining to provide further details, the official, who
spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity, said ``you
want to find something that is straightforward and
lasting.''

And, he said, ``there is clearly movement here.  We are
further ahead than before.''

Kocharian and Aliyev, who met face to face, were in this
ski resort along with scores of government leaders and
hundreds of business executives to attend an international
economic forum.

Another round of talks will be held in Vienna under the
joint supervision of the United States, Russia and France,
which head a large group of nations seeking a settlement
in the southern Caucasus region.

The dispute has produced up to 1 million refugees and an
instability that could hamper plans to open a
strategically important new oil pipeline to tap massive
reserves in the Caspian Sea.

The pipeline connecting Baku, Azerbaijan, to Supsa,
Georgia, is another key step in the development of the
Caspian Sea fields, which have massive reserves but only
limited means to export the oil to world markets.

The region is roiled by the conflict between Russia and
separatists in the republic of Chechnya, and the
appearance of progress on the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute
provides a positive contrast.

Copyright 2000 The Associated Press

HARBINGERS OF ARMENIAN-TURKISH NORMALIZATION

Armenia is looking warily at the initiative for a South Caucasus regional stability
pact, recently launched by Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan (see
the Monitor, January 18; the Fortnight in Review, January 21).
Foreign Affairs Ministry chief spokesman Ara Papian and Prime
Minister Aram Sarkisian stated on January 19 and 21,
respectively, that normalization of Turkish-Armenian bilateral
relations constitutes a prerequisite to Armenia's participation
in any regional pact. Yerevan defines normalization as requiring
Turkey to reopen its border with Armenia and establish diplomatic
relations with the neighboring country (Snark, Noyan-Tapan,
January 20, 22, 24).

Turkey had been among the first countries to recognize Armenia's
independence, but the hopes for normal relations dwindled in 1993
when Armenian forces seized Azerbaijani territories beyond
Karabakh, prompting Turkey to retaliate by closing its border
with Armenia. That measure has, in effect, blockaded the most
promising direction of Armenia's foreign trade, with dire
economic consequences for Armenia.

In time, Turkey's position hardened into requiring Armenia to
come to an understanding with Azerbaijan over Karabakh as a
condition for reopening the Turkish-Armenian border. Yerevan, for
its part, continually criticizes that linkage as one which holds
Turkish-Armenian normalization "hostage" to the Karabakh dispute
and allows Azerbaijan to frustrate that normalization. When
President Levon Ter-Petrosian argued that the reopening of the
border was economically so vital to Armenia as to warrant a
compromise over Karabakh, he was deposed from office in 1998 by
the military and security forces, who installed Robert Kocharian
as president. Kocharian, however, has recently adopted Ter-
Petrosian's view that Armenia's economic recovery depends on
normalizing relations with Turkey. Partly for that reason,
Kocharian is being opposed by Armenia's military hardliners (see
the Fortnight in Review, December 3, 1999; the Monitor, November
24, December 17, 1999, January 10).

Turkish President Suleyman Demirel's proposal for a regional pact
implies a degree of flexibility on the issue of reopening the
border. It also entails greater leeway for initiatives by Turkish
local authorities and business circles in developing contacts
with Armenia. The Turkish provincial governor and the
municipality of Kars, near the Armenian border, hosted last week
a delegation of Armenian officials representing the Foreign
Affairs Ministry, the city of Gyumri and county of Shirak. The
meeting produced a decision to reopen the East Gate border
crossing once a week for local trade. The local authorities
decided to set up a bilateral coordinating committee and launched
a proposal to other jurisdictions on either side of the border to
join this initiative.

In a move which might until now have seemed unthinkable, Gyumri
and Kars signed a town-twinning agreement. A delegation from the
largest Turkish cities in eastern Anatolia--Erzurum, Kars and
Ardahan--is expected to visit Armenia in a month's time. Yerevan
calls for more ambitious, immediate steps, such as reopening the
railroad connections from Kars to Armenia and from Armenia to
Baku (Snark, Noyan-Tapan, January 18, 22, 24; Turan, January 22;
Turkish Daily News, Anatolia news agency, NTV (Ankara), January
17, 19, 21, 24).

The government of Azerbaijan considers that the reopening of the
Turkish-Armenian border should follow, not precede, an Armenian-
Azerbaijani agreement on resolving the Karabakh dispute, or
should at least be contingent on the withdrawal of Karabakh-
Armenian forces from the six districts they occupy in Azerbaijan
proper. As long as Armenians hold those territories beyond
Karabakh, Baku's negotiating hand on Karabakh remains weak.
Baku's main counterleverage so far has been derived from Turkey's
position, which demands the withdrawal of Armenian troops as a
condition to reopening the Turkish-Armenian border. Baku believes
that premature concessions by Ankara would make Yerevan even more
intractable in the negotiations over Karabakh.

Asked by Baku with some urgency to clarify its position, Ankara
seems to indicate that a gradual, possibly piecemeal reopening of
the Turkish-Armenian border is being considered as part of a
"normalization process." Turkey appears to share at least to an
extent the U.S. position, which holds that economic links would
offer Armenia an incentive to become more flexible, both in the
negotiations with Azerbaijan and on regionwide cooperation
initiatives, such as the proposed stability pact (ANS, Turan,
AzadInform, Anatolia news agency, NTV (Ankara), January 21-22,
24).

This approach might hold some chance of breaking the vicious
circle in which Armenia's participation in regionwide pacts
depends on normalization with Turkey, while that normalization in
turn depends on settling the Karabakh conflict. Progress on those
parallel tracks might, in a follow-up stage, make it possible to
tackle the ultimate obstacle to a South Caucasus Stability Pact
and to stability itself--to wit, the presence of Russian troops
in Armenia. Yerevan appears unwilling to address that issue now,
but the removal of Russian troops from Armenia--as well as from
Georgia--is a fundamental requirement of regional security.

In a related move, Kocharian and Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanian
made an unprecedented overture by paying a visit to Israel--the
first to that country by an Armenian head of state. The four-day,
unofficial trip included meetings with President Ezer Weizman,
Prime Minister Ehud Barak and Palestinian Authority leader Yasir
Arafat. The significance of the visit is apparent from
Kocharian's remarks that Armenia's relationships with Iran and
Syria should be balanced by establishing links with Israel. The
president argued as well that Turkey's, Georgia's and
Azerbaijan's active relations with Israel contribute to Armenia's
isolation in the South Caucasus, underscoring the need for
Yerevan to initiate a policy of "complementarity" in its own
national interest. Kocharian and Oskanian were careful to
emphasize that their initiative is not directed against Iran's
and Syria's interests. Those remarks reflect Kocharian's attempt
to wean Armenia away from reliance on Russia and rogue states;
the self-justifying undertone of those remarks, however, reflects
just as much the president's difficult internal situation with
his military and pro-Russian rivals (Noyan-Tapan, Azg, Snark,
Respublika Armeniya, January 20-24).

Copyright (c) 2000 The Jamestown Foundation

All news copied with permission from Habarlar-L Newslist

Edited on 29.01.2000

Azerbaijani and Armenian Presidents expected to sign a joint statement

Baku. 28.01.2000. /AzadInform/. The Turkish "Milliyet" paper had published on
January 28, 2000 an article "Caucasian diplomacy in Davos" running that the
Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev, Armenian President Robert Kocharyan and US
Secretary of State Madeleine Albright are expected to hold joint and separate
meetings in Davos. They also supposed, the Turkish prime-minister B. Ejevit will
meet with the Azerbaijani President. However, whether the Turkish prime minister
will meet with the Armenian President, isn't known yet. The article says: "It is
possible that the Azerbaijani and Armenian Presidents' meeting continued since
over a year might be resumed in Davos". According to reliable sources, the two
leaders are expected to sign a joint statement, consisting of 4-5 articles,
moreover, to announce it if there are no problems. The statement will reflect
principles connected with withdrawal of Armenian troops from occupied Azeri
territories, returning of refugees and IDPs back!
to their homes and determination of Upper Karabakh's status.

Azerbaijan MFA sent a note to MFA of Switzerland


Baku. 28.01.2000. /AzadInform/.Due to the information from Armenian information
agency "Snark" dated 21.01.2000, Swiss companies "Frank Muller" and "Andre
group" intend to start works on producing of watches, banking and jewelry
business, organization of construction of dwelling houses and development of the
local agrarian industry complex in the occupied Upper-Karabakh region of
Azerbaijan.

In this connection MFA on January 25 sent an appropriate note to Swiss Foreign
Affairs Administration. The document runs the following:

Azerbaijan MFA believes, that government of Switzerland will consider any
cooperation including economic with illegal separatist regime established in
occupied Upper Karabakh in Azerbaijan as a violation of sovereignty, territorial
integrity of Azerbaijan as well as support to aggressor.

"We hope Swiss MFA taking into consideration impossibility of Swiss companies
operation in the occupied Azeri territories till the end of final settlement of
the Upper Karabakh conflict will undertake appropriate measures for prevention
of the above Swiss companies participation in doubtful economic projects ".

Habarlar-L

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