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Last edited on May 31, 2000
SECTION 907 HARMS AZERBAIJAN POLITICALLY, NOT ECONOMICALLY
It turns out that the ex-president of Azerbaijan and current chairman
of the oppositional Azerbaijan Popular Front?s Party (AXCP), Abulfaz
Elchibey visited the United States not for informing the country's
public of the existing standoff between Azeri authorities and
opposition. He told a news conference that the goal of his trip was
to find a contact point in the U.S.-Azerbaijan relations. As for the
repeal of infamous Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act, which
prohibits rendering direct U.S. governmental assistance to
Azerbaijan, the AXCP chairman was told that it was a highly
complicated issue, since there were serious disagreements between the
president and the U.S Congress. Mr Elchibey was also told that the
disagreements were caused by the fact that more than 50 pro-Armenian
congressmen were putting pressure on the U.S. government. According
to the ex-president, he told his high-ranking U.S. interlocutors to
say openly if Azerbaijan's fate was being decided by certain Vazgens
or Arkadys for Azerbaijan to solve its problems with them and not the
U.S. government. The AXCP leader said the Americans were confused
and said they didn?t mean that. Mr Elchibey added that he wouldn't
ask the U.S. why it doesn't repeal Section 907 if he was a president.
Even the ex-president of the United States, George Bush used to say
that the Section made no economic harm to Azerbaijan, although the
harm was done from the political point of view.
By Eldaniz Veliyev
TURKEY READY TO HELP AZERBAIJAN
IN SOLUTION OF KARABAKH PROBLEM
The Foreign Minister of Turkey, Ismayil Cem said during his current
visit to Azerbaijan that he rated it as an important step forward in
development of mutual political and economic relations between
Azerbaijan and Turkey. Mr Cem also expressed satisfaction with the
fact that his country will be a buyer of Azeri natural gas. Touching
upon the issue of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, the high-ranked
Turkish guest said the changes to be possibly made in Turkey?s policy
in this field depend on Azerbaijan. According to Mr Cem, if any
result is achieved during the Karabakh-related talks, Turkey will
render an all-round assistance for Azerbaijan to realize the
agreement.
By Narmina Rustamova
Copyright 2000 Azerbaijan News Service
NGONEWS digest
Monthly digest of Society for Humanitarian Researches [exerpt]
First-aid centers for IDPs being set up
The Azerbaijan Government and the USAID signed an agree-ment at the UNICEF
office Tuesday, targeting improved first medical aid in IDP camps.
The document was signed by the UNICEF president in Azerbaijan Akif
Saatcioglu and the USAID coordinator on Azerbaijan William McKinney.
The project beneficiaries are 343,000 people, who will be served by 60
first-aid centers in 174 IDP camps in 15 provinces of Azerbaijan. The
USAID-funded project is earmarked for 3 years. According to Mr. Saatcioglu,
if the occupied terri-tories are liberated and displaced persons return
home, the pro-ject's term may be prolonged. He added that the project would
go into effect upon signing of the agreement.
Noyan Tapan Armenian News, May 30, 2000
Date: Tue, 30 May 2000 22:19:36 -0700 (PDT)
#########################################################################
HL NOTE: Some or all of the following news articles ignore such basic
facts that:
1) Karabakh region of Azerbaijan was, is, and will remain to be a
legitimate and internationally recognized part of Azerbaijan;
2) Karabakh, and seven other regions are illegally occupied by
armed forces of the Republic of Armenia, the aggressor;
3) Puppet and self-proclaimed (Nagorno) Karabakh Republic ("NKR") is an
illegitimate and criminal entity, not recognized by any international
organization or state;
4) As of 1992, Khankandi has been restored as an official historical name
of the town, that was renamed to Stepanakert by J. Stalin in 1923
#########################################################################
Campaigning Begins For Karabakh Elections
STEPANAKERT (Noyan Tapan)-Campaigning begins in Nagorno Karabakh, May
30. Elections for National Assembly in Karabakh are scheduled for
June 18. Each candidate standing for parliament will be provided with
5 minutes, 12 seconds of air time on Artsakh National Television and
Radio and will be allowed to publish 120 lines in the republican "Azat
Artsakh" (Free Artsakh) newspaper, Karabakh's Central Electoral
Commission announced.
There are a number of novelties in the current election campaign. For
example, the ballots will have to be certified with the signatures of
three members of the commission, which is to be appointed by a draw
the day before voting opens. This measure is intended to prevent
vote-rigging.
Unlike the previous election campaigns, proxies will enjoy broader
powers this time in monitoring the voting process. In particular,
their presence will be allowed during the sealing of ballot boxes.
They will also be allowed to make audio and video clips, take
pictures, will be given copies of summary protocols of elections,
etc.. Deliberate fraud in electoral documents and other illegal
actions will be punished .
Mobile ballot boxes are to be provided for people who are physically
unable to go to their polling stations.
Oskanian Urges Europe to Focus on
Caucasus Security
YEREVAN (Noyan Tapan)-Currently territorial exchange is not part of
Armenia's official position on the Karabakh settlement, Armenian
Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanian said at his meeting with a delegation
of the German Bundestag led by Vice-Speaker Anke Fuchs.
Oskanian said that in the near future the issue of the Karabakh
settlement will be included in the agenda of a number of high-level
meetings. In particular, Foreign Minister Oskanian stressed the
importance of the Clinton-Putin meeting to be held in Moscow July 4.
Among other issues the American and Russian presidents are expected to
exchange views on peaceful settlement of the Karabakh conflict.
Pushing for a peaceful settlement, Oskanian expressed optimism that
the membership of Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Council of Europe will
contribute to the two countries' reaching common grounds.
Oskanian drew the German delegation's attention to the fact that far
from promoting the settlement of the conflict, Turkey's policy towards
Armenia has so far prevented the creation of an atmosphere of mutual
confidence and stability in the region.
He stressed that Europe must play an active role in the region, and
urged European countries to pay close attention to the issue of
stability and security in the Caucasus.
Copyright 2000 Noyan Tapan
Referred from Habarlar-L
ARMENIAN PRESIDENT SAYS RUSSIAN BASES CRUCIAL TO REGIONAL SECURITY SYSTEM.
In a recent interview with several Russian
journalists broadcast by Armenian National Television,
President Robert Kocharian said the Russian military bases in
Armenia and Georgia have been a crucial guarantee of regional
security and must therefore be incorporated into the planned
South Caucasus security system, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau
reported on 30 May. Kocharian said that system must build on
previous accomplishments in the security sphere and that
Russia should play a major role in it. In late March,
Kocharian had advocated a security system based on the
"3+3+2" format, meaning an agreement between Armenia,
Azerbaijan, and Georgia, with Russia, Iran, and Turkey acting
as guarantors and the U.S. and the EU as sponsors (see
"RFE/RL Newsline," 30 March 2000). Earlier this month, the
Brussels-based Centre for European Policy Studies unveiled an
alternative blueprint under which Russia, the EU, and the
U.S. would affirm their willingness to participate in such a
system, which would be developed by the three South Caucasus
states, together with Turkey and Iran. LF
RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol. 4, No. 105, Part I, 31 May 2000
Copyright RFE/RL
From: "eurasiapress" <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
Subject: Letter of Protest
Date: Wed, 31 May 2000 20:36:16 -0700
Dear Mr. Alan Dillingham,
As we know, US is a superpower that look upon itself the responsibility to defend and support democracy and freedom in the world and to help resolve conflicts among states.
But we have been disappointed by the fact that US Government makes Support Aid to Armenia and unrecognized Karabagh republic.We can not imagine to ourselves, how it is possible such democratic country as US to support aggressor-Armenia ???
And how it is possible why US still imposes such unjust Amendment #907 to Freedom
Support Act ???
In this message we send to you some statistics about plight situation of
refugees and IDPs in Azerbaijan. There is also about fact of inhuman cruelty
which brought to a root-and-branch destruction of an entire town - Khojali-
by Armenian troops during ONE NIGHT.
Today 20% of Azerbaijan's territory is under the occupation of Armenian
military forces. Beginning from 1992 Azerbaijan diplomacy did everything to
drow world community's attention to the flagrant facts of the aggression of
Armenia against Azerbaijan, to search the ways of the peaceful regulation of
the conflict. The results of these efforts were 4 resolutrions adopted bu UN
Security Council and 6 statements of its Chairman. In all resolutions the
Security Council confirms the sovereignty and integrity of the Republic of
Azerbaija, emphasizes impossibility to use force for capturing of the
territories, demands immediate, complete and unconditional withdrawing of
all the occupied forces from all the captured regions of Azerbaijan and
returning refugees to their permanent residences.
Also the decisions of Lisbon Summit of OSCE (Lisbon, 1996) have given clear
foundation for resolution of the conflict on the basis of principle of
territorial integrity of Azerbaijan.
We appeal to you, distinguished Congressman to render effective assistance
to achieve the peaceful settlement of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, the
restoration of of territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and the inviolability
of of its internationally recognazed borders. We- people of Azerbaijan
condemn all types of aggression in any part of of the planet. We want Peace.
Peace in the whole world, Peace in our region, peace and good relations
among all neighboring states.
We trust on you nobility and fairness.
Sincerely,
The staff of International Eurasia Press Fund (NGO)
International Eurasia Press Fund
1A. Mehdi Husseyn Str.,
Baku - 370006. Azerbaijan
Tel: (994 12) 397697; 395807
E-mail: [email protected]
THE RESULTS OF ARMENIAN AGGRESSION
TO AZERBAIJAN (included in letter-my note):
Last deportation of Azerbaijanians from Armenia
(1988-89 years)
Territory 172 villages, 82 villages with mixed population and 6 cities were
eventually evacuated of all Azerbaijanis.
Number of families 50 000
Number of population 231 400 persons
Number of murders 226 persons
Individual economy losses 2.5 billion$
Collective economy loses 17.5 billion $
_________________________________________________
Occupying of Mountainous Garabag region of Azerbaijan and adjoining to it districts by Armenian
military troops
_________________________________________________
KHOJAVEND DISTRICT
[Occupied] 30 October -3 December 1991
Territory 1458 sq.km
Number of families 1992
Number of population 9874 persons
-Female 916 persons
-Children 3950 persons
Number of murders 136 persons
Number of handicaps 13 persons
KHOJALI DISTRICT
[Occupied]26 February 1992
Territory 936 sq.km
Number of families 2605
Number of population 11356 persons
-Female 5697 persons
-Children 2771 persons
Number of murders 400 persons
Number of handicaps 498 persons
Number of orphans 576 persons
SHUSHA DISTRICT
Occupied 8 May 1992
Territory 289 sq.krn
Number of families 5523
Number of population 23156 persons
-Female 12269 persons
-Children 8424 persons
Number of murders 184 persons
Number of handicaps 450 persons
Number of orphans 552 persons
LACHIN DISTRICT
[Occupied]15 -18 May 1992
Territory 1835 sq.krn
Number of families 14095
Number of population 61763 persons
-Female 31278 persons
-Children 24705 persons
Number of murders 324 persons
Number of handicaps 1125 persons
Number of orphans 1200 persons
KELBEJAR DISTRICT
[Occupied]31 March -2 April 1993
Territory 3054 sq.km
Number of families 14780
Number of population 60698 persons
-Female 31363 persons
-Children 24279 persons
Number of murders 458 persons
Number of handicaps 510 persons
Number of orphans 734 persons
JABRAIL DISTRICT
[Occupied]23 August 1993
Territory 1050 sq.km
Number of families (????????? ????) 14112
Number of population 57125 persons
-Female 30277 persons
-Children 22850 persons
Number of murders 353 persons
Number of handicaps 368 persons
Number of orphans 218 persons
AGDAM DISTRICT
[Occupied]23 August 1993 (partia11y occupied)
Territory 1154 sq.km
Number of families 36054
Number of population 158000 persons
-Female 82160 persons
-Children 63200 persons
Number of murders 538 persons
Number of handicaps 587 persons
Number of orphans 987 persons
GUBADLI DISTRICT
[Occupied]30 August 1993
Territory 802 sq.km
Number of families 8331
Number of population 30678 persons
-Female 16260 persons
-Children 12080 persons
Number of murders 80 persons
Number of handicaps 722 persons
Number of orphans 435 persons
ZANGELAN DISTRICT
[Occupied]20-23 October 1993
Territory 707 sq.km
Number of families 8640
Number of population 34924 persons
-Female 17950 persons
-Children 12800 persons
Number of murders 490 persons
Number of handicaps 345 persons
Number of orphans 395 persons
FIZULI DISTRICT
[Occupied]August 1993 (partia11y occupied)
Territory 1386 sq.km
Number of families 22110
Number of population 98958 persons
-Female 52561 persons
-Children 36321 persons
Number of murders 669 persons
Number of handicaps 1450 persons
Number of orphans 155 persons
Referred from Habarlar-L
Edited on May 30, 2000
AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENT SAYS TURKEY'S HELP NEEDED TO RESOLVE KARABAKH CONFLICT.
Meeting in Baku on 29 May with Turkish Foreign Minister
Ismail Cem, Aliev said he hopes for progress in resolving the
Karabakh conflict, adding that the OSCE Minsk Group is
expected to present a new draft peace plan shortly, Turan
reported. Aliev said he plans to meet on the sidelines of the
CIS June summit with his Armenian counterpart, Robert
Kocharian, to continue their discussion of ways to resolve
the conflict. In his radio address the previous day, Aliev
said he and Kocharian had several times been close to
resolving the conflict but that the "destructive position" of
the Armenian side prevented a solution. He said Turkey's
assistance is essential in order to resolve the conflict.
Aliev also expressed the hope that recently elected Turkish
President Ahmed Necet Sezer's first foreign visit will be to
Azerbaijan. Cem, for his part, pledged Ankara's support in
the Karabakh peace process and for Azerbaijan's full
membership in the Council of Europe. LF
RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol. 4, No. 104, Part I, 30 May 2000
Copyright RFE/RL
ASA GREETS AZERIS OF THE WORLD
ON THE DAY OF REPUBLIC
For further information contact
Javid Huseynov, Azerbaijan Society of America
[email protected]
May 28, 2000
Today Azeris all over the world are celebrating the 82nd
anniversary of the "Day of Republic". On May 28 1918, Azerbaijan
was proclaimed as an independent state and the first democratic
republic (ADR) in the Middle East. Under the leadership of the
architects of national independence, Mammad Emin Rasulzadeh,
Fatali-khan Khoylu, A.M. Topchu- bashov and others, Azerbaijan
Democratic Republic survived and developed through the difficult
period of the World War I finale, Russian Bolshevik insurrection,
and Armenian Dashnak aggression. Among other achievements of
independent Azerbaijan between 1918 and 1920 were the development
of national economy, establishment of independent state
institutions, democratically elected multi-party parliament, armed
forces of the republic and the first secular university in Islamic
world.
One of the benchmark events in the short history of ADR was the
liberation of Azerbaijani capital Baku on September 15, 1918 from
bloody Bolshevik and Dashnak gangs led by Stepan Shaumyan. The
modern flag, the state symbol, and the anthem of contemporary
Republic of Azerbaijan were also adopted during this first
Azerbaijani independence. On January 11, 1920 the Supreme Council
of the Paris Peace Conference de-facto recognized the independence
of Azerbaijan, and subsequently foreign embassies and
representations were established in capital Baku.
Bolshevik Revolution as well as Czarist Denikin armies in Russia
were a considerable threat to indepedent Azerbaijan. Therefore,
Azerbaijan on June 27, 1919 signed a military agreement with
neighboring Georgian Republic. Before that, in January 1919,
customs and trading treaty was signed between Azerbaijan and
Georgia. These were some of the first steps in unifying two
countries against the common threat.
Another neighbor of Azerbaijan, Armenia, however, was following
the policy of aggression and the ideology of ethnic cleansing for
creation of "Greater Armenia". Suffering considerable losses from
Ottoman army and later Turkish liberation movement of Mustafa
Kemal (Ataturk) in attempts to occupy Eastern Anatolia with
Russian assistance, Armenian government of ultra-nationalist
Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF "Dashnaktsutyun") has now
aimed the occupation of Azerbaijani provinces of Zangezur, Goycheh
and Qarabagh. And this was despite the fact that Dashnaks were
represented as a party in Azerbaijani parliament. Dashnaks did
not also hide their territorial claims to Georgia, in particular,
regions of Akhalkalaki and Akhaltsikhe. In executing these
policies, they collaborated with Russian Bolsheviks.
On April 26-27 1920, 11th Red Army of Soviet Russia attacked
Azerbaijan. Azerbaijani Army of 10,000 cavalry and 30,000
infantry forces was unable to defend northern border from Russians
because it was involved in a war with Dashnak Armenia. On April
28, 1920 Bolsheviks marched into Baku City. They sent an
ultimatum to Azerbaijani Government to give up the power. In
order to prevent the bloodshed among civilians, Azerbaijani
Parliament decided to hand over the power to Bolsheviks.
Several ADR leaders, including M.E.Rasulzadeh, fled the country.
Others such as Fatali-khan Khoylu and Beybut-khan Javashirov were
murdered by Armenian Dashnak terrorists in Tiflis and Istanbul in
1920.
Later in 1921 major parts of Azerbaijan were given to Armenia by
Bolshevik government, including lands of Zangezur, Goycheh,
Daralayaz, and parts of Sharur; autonomous district was
established for Armenian minority in mountainous part of Qarabagh
province (currently known as disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh).
In 1922, Azerbaijan was incorporated into Soviet Union as a part
of Transcaucasian Federative SSR, and later in 1936, it became a
union republic of USSR.
Nevertheless, the idea of independence did not die in Azerbaijan.
On October 18 1991, independent Republic of Azerbaijan was
officially restored by declaration of Azerbaijani Milli Medjlis
(National Assembly). Modern Azerbaijan experiences the Armenian
agression and Russian expansion attempts again, however, this time
Azeri people are confident in strength of their independent
statehood and their ability to defend it.
------------------------------------------------------------------
The Azerbaijan Society of America is a non-profit organization dedicated
to enhancing knowledge about the Republic of Azerbaijan, the Azeri
people, their culture and history.
Copyright 2000 Azerbaijan Society of America
IRCC AND AZERBAIJAN HAVE DIFFERENT FACTS ON AZERI POWs IN ARMENIA
The International Red Cross Committee (IRCC) held a seminar in Baku?s
Press Club today to discuss the problem of defense of rights of
prisoners-of-war. It was noted there were 8 Azeri POWs in Armenia but
IRCC representatives refused to give out all information they had
saying it was done for the sake of the organization?s remaining
neutral. Christine Robier, the representative of IRCC?s public
relations department said they spoke only of what they saw. The
statement that there were 8 Azeri POWs in Armenia made the head of
public relations department of the Defense Ministry?s press service,
Uzeyir Jafarov to speak criticizingly of the IRCC. According to
Jafarov, this statement shows how powerless is such an authoritative
international organization as IRCC before Armenia. Jafarov also noted
that they had facts on 863 Azeri POWs held in Armenian captivity. The
official said the IRCC would better bring Azeri realities to the
attention of the world community instead of revealing unverified
facts.
By Etibar Mamedov
AZERIS AND ARMENIANS FACE EACH
OTHER IN CRUCIAL KVN FINAL
The CIS Club of the Joy and Resourceful (KVN) decided to play a game
between Baku's Bakili Oglanlar ("The Boys From Baku") and Yerevan's
New Armenians KVN teams to dispute the title of the strongest KVN team
of XX century. The decisive game will be played in Moscow on November
18. This was announced by the captain of the Baku team Anar
Mammadkhanov. We would remind you that Bakunians defeated the Odessa
team in semifinals, while New Armenians beat the united
Donetsk-Yekaterinburg Dream Team. The Baku captain reminded that the
Azeri and Armenian teams have once reached final in 1992 but the game
was suspended due to the war in Karabakh, although many predicted
Azeris would win.
By Leyla Osmanova
ANS News, May 26, 2000
Referred from Habarlar-L
Edited on May 26, 2000
ARMENIAN RIGHT-WING SEEKS
SUPPORT IN SOUTH.
Members of the recently created Union of Rightist Forces visited the
southern region of Meghri on 23-24 May and appear to have
tried to garner support from the local population by
suggesting that, contrary to official disclaimers, the
Armenian leadership is considering ceding that region to
Azerbaijan in exchange for Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenpress and
Noyan Tapan reported. Some residents, alarmed by that
possibility, have reportedly left Meghri. Democratic
Motherland chairman Petros Makeyan claimed that Premier
Vazgen Sargsian and parliamentary speaker Karen Demirchian
were killed in the 27 October parliament shootings because
they opposed such a territorial exchange. A spokesman for
President Robert Kocharian denied last week that Kocharian
and his Azerbaijani counterpart, Heidar Aliev, had agreed to
such an exchange of territory (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 19 May
2000). LF
Copyright RFE/RL
Edited on May 25, 2000
AZERBAIJAN WON'T MAKE ANY
CONCESSIONS, SAYS FOREIGN MINISTER GULIYEV
Azeri Foreign Minister Vilayat Guliyev told Caspian news agency
that Azerbaijan wouldn't make any concessions in the
Nagorno-Karabakh adjustment process any more, because the country
has done it enough. Guliyev said these in reply to the statement
made by the so-called foreign minister of the self-proclaimed
"Nagorno-Karabakh Republic", Naira Melkumian's recent statement.
We would remind you that Melkumian said Armenia wouldn?t
participate in the negotiation process if Azerbaijan doesn?t make
any concessions. It's noteworthy that Armenia rates as a
concession the fact that it accepted the "common state"
principle. Meanwhile, the Azeri side reckons that adjustment of
the Karabakh problem through the "common state" principle would
only signify strengthening Armenia's positions. According to
Guliyev, the "common state" principle is an attempt to legalize
through diplomatic ways the violated territorial integrity of
Azerbaijan.
By Leyla Osmanova
ANS News, May 24, 2000
Ukrainian Gov`t To Sent 40 Containers
For Azeri Refugees
According to a Cabinet of Ministers source, the Azerbaijan
government has recently asked the Ukrainian party for empty
containers to accommodate Azeri refugees.
Earlier, the Ukrainian government sent 100 other containers,
which were too converted into make-shift houses for IDPs. 40
more 20-ton containers have been prepared to be dispatched to
Azerbaijan.
AssA-Irada News, May 24, 2000
Referred from Habarlar-L
FORMER AZERBAIJANI FOREIGN MINISTER
SAYS CAUCASUS SECURITY PACT NOT FEASIBLE AT PRESENT.
Tofik Zulfugarov, who resigned
last fall as Azerbaijani foreign minister, believes it would
be premature to talk of creating a regional security system
in the South Caucasus before all regional conflicts have been
resolved, Caucasus Press reported on 24 May. He said one of
the "fundamental principles" of such a system is the mutual
recognition by all regional states of each others'
territorial integrity. But in the future, once that objective
is realized, he added, "such a system could become an
important factor for preserving peace and stability,"
provided that all regional states are included in it. LF
Copyright RFE/RL
Last edited on May 24, 2000
KARABAKH LIBERATION ORGANIZATION CALLS FOR AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENT'S RESIGNATION.
The Organization for the Liberation of Karabakh,
created in Baku earlier this year, has issued a
statement condemning President Heidar Aliev's 18 May remark
that "it would be insane to resume military actions in
Karabakh," Turan reported on 23 May (see "RFE/RL Newsline,"
19 May 2000). The statement accused Aliev of being concerned
only with retaining power. "If Heidar Aliev cannot liberate
the occupied lands and calls the country's patriotic forces
'insane,' he should resign as president," the statement said.
LF
KARABAKH ASSASSINATION BID INVESTIGATION COMPLETED.
The investigation into the 22 March attempt to assassinate
Arkadii Ghukasian, president of the unrecognized Nagorno-
Karabakh Republic, has been completed, RFE/RL's Stepanakert
correspondent reported on 23 May, citing unnamed law
enforcement agency sources. The office of Prosecutor-General
Mavrik Ghukasian (no relation to Arkadii), who said two weeks
ago that the investigation should be completed within three
weeks, declined to comment on that information. The
prosecution claims that former Karabakh Defense Army
commander and Defense Minister Samvel Babayan has confessed
to plotting to overthrow the unrecognized republic's
leadership and seize power but has denied masterminding the
attempt to kill Ghukasian. "Golos Armenii" on 16 May quoted
one of Babayan's lawyers as denying Mavrik Ghukasian's claim
that they refused to represent him because they were
convinced of his guilt. LF
Copyright RFE/RL
STRATFOR/WNI
Global Intelligence Update
Kocharian Builds Political Phalanx to Prolong His Presidency
05.24.00
Armenian President Robert Kocharian, whose authority has been challenged
since last falls parliament shooting, named a new Cabinet May 20.
Reacting to a hostile parliament and uncooperative military, Kocharian
moved to surround himself with loyal supporters. But, while this may be
enough to prolong Kocharians presidency, it still will not hand him
unchecked control of the country, which he has been grasping for since
last year.
The Armenian government was crippled by the death of the countrys two most
popular politicians last fall. Over the past eight months, Armenias
administration has grappled with so many internal issues that it has
barely addressed foreign policy. Among the neglected issues is one
critical to stability in the Caucasus: Nagorno-Karabakh, the war-torn
ethnic Armenian enclave in Azerbaijan.
President Kocharian is now relying on an exceedingly isolated support base
to defend his position against opponents in the military and parliament. A
friendly Cabinet will not be able perpetually to protect Kocharian from
his opponents. Unless he gains control over another key element such as
the media Kocharian will lose his grip on the presidency. The redirection
of the nations political focus would pull Armenia even further away from
regional and world affairs.
One week after sacking the intractable prime minister and his Cabinet,
Kocharian replaced five Cabinet members of new Prime Minister Andranik
Markarians government. Considering Kocharians unpopularity among the
Armenian military services, the most significant of the appointments is
that of new Defense Minister Serge Sarkisian.
He was appointed because of his loyalty to Kocharian not his ability to
mend the broken relationship between the military and the executive
branch. The army supported former Prime Minister Vazgen Sarkisian and his
brother, the most recent former Prime Minister Aram Sarkisin. When Vazgen
was killed in the attack on the parliament last October, Kocharian lost
the support of the military which suspected foul play and joined in the
call for the resignation of several of the countrys leaders.
Serge Sarkisian, as the secretary of the National Security Council, was
the primary target of that suspicion. Several days after the attack, he
resigned and was appointed chief of the Presidential
Administration. However, the investigation continued, and evidence seemed
to link back to the presidents office.
The Peoples Party, one of two members that form the ruling coalition,
began to call for Kocharian to fire Sarkisian. He refused, and political
opponents began to rally support for a presidential impeachment on the
grounds that Kocharian was impeding a federal investigation. The
impeachment attempt faltered just days before Kocharian sacked the prime
minister and Cabinet.
Kocharian has cleaned house, surrounding himself with allies. Observers,
initially surprised at Sarkisians appointment, have begun to believe that
the president has consolidated his hold on power by putting a friend in
charge of the military. However, now Kocharian has to do something about
the enemies outside the walls.
The president cannot reverse the loyalty of the entire armed forces simply
by plucking out the top official and inserting a new one. The same is true
for the countrys political leadership. Kocharian still faces an
independent-minded military and an uncooperative parliament. The conflict
in Armenia is not resolved and cannot be as long as Kocharian remains
president.
Referred from Habarlar-L
Last edited on May 23, 2000
PEACE TALKS GET NEW FOCUS
by Vugar Mamedov
Mon, 22 May 2000 12:03:17 -0700 (PDT)
By all appearances, new proposals for a Karabakh peace
settlement are afoot. This week in Geneva, representatives of
various branches of the United Nations sat down with officials
from several international relief and financial assistance
organizations to set the stage for a post-war aid and
reconstruction program for Azerbaijan and Armenia. The meeting
was sponsored by the American, Russian and French co-chairmen
of the Minsk Group, the special unit of the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) charged with forging
a peace agreement. Later, the co-chairmen met privately to
discuss a joint visit they plan to Baku, Karabakh and the
Armenian capital Yerevan before the end of May. The American
mediator, Carey Cavanaugh, visited Azerbaijan and Armenia alone
last week and said there was renewed hope for a settlement.
For months prior to that, he and the other Minsk Group
co-chairmen had said they would not visit the region until the
Azeri and Armenian governments put forward new peace proposals.
Azeri Foreign Minister Vilayet Guliyev told journalists he had
no information on any new proposals the Minsk Group might be
working with. But he made clear that for the first time since
last October the peace process is in full gear. Azeri
President Heidar Aliev is to meet Armenian President Robert
Kocharyan on the sideleines of the CIS summit planned for
Moscow on June 21. It would be the first time the two have met
face-to-face since last October, when a mass assassination in
the Armenian Parliament by nationalist fanatics gravely
weakened Kocharyan's domestic position. Before the killings,
Aliev and Kocharyan had held a string of private meetings that
made peace seem a more realistic prospect than at any time
since a May 1994 ceasefire agreement ended open warfare in and
around Karabakh. But even during those talks, Aliev and
Kocharyan continued to insist that the parallel role of the
Minsk Group was essential to reaching a settlement. For its
part, the Minsk Group stressed the importance of continued
private dialogue between the Azeri and Armenian leaders.
Guliyev also announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin
had enthusiastically accepted an invitation by Aliev to visit
Baku. Because Azerbaijan and Armenia are small and weak
countries, a peace agreement between them would need the
support of all regional powers. Putin's predecessor Boris
Yeltsin never visited Azerbaijan, signaling the burning
hostility between the two countries over Russia's open military
and diplomatic support for Armenia throughout the 1990s. A
state visit by Putin to Baku could mark the beginning of a
historic change in relations. Cavanaugh said in Baku last week
that U.S. President Bill Clinton would raise the subject of
Karabakh during his summit with Putin in Moscow on June 4.
Washington is Azerbaijan's strategic patron, and along with
Russia would serve as a silent guarantor of a Karabakh peace
pact.
The Clinton administration, which in recent years has
aggressively sought to limit Russian influence over Caspian
energy reserves, has in recent months openly invited Russia to
join pipeline and oil extraction projects involving Azerbaijan.
Turkey, Azerbaijan's closest ally, will enter the picture as
well when its Foreign Minister Ismail Cem visits Baku later
this month. Karabakh is certain to feature in his discussions
with Aliev, Guliyev and other Azeri officials. Finally, it was
announced this week that Aliev would make his first-ever visit
to Iran June 9-10 to participate in a meeting of an economic
cooperation group that also involves Turkey and former Soviet
Central Asian countries. Aliev is scheduled to meet privately
with Iranian President Mohammed Khatami, although the visit
would be considered separate from Aliev's pending state visit
to Iran. Islamic fundamentalist Iran and secular Azerbaijan
have long had strained relations, and Iran has provided
strategic weight to Armenia. Yet Iran's support for a Karabakh
peace agreement, while important, would not be as vital as that
of Russia, the U.S. and Turkey. But even as diplomats move to
assemble the geopolitical and economic framework for a Karabakh
peace deal, the ultimate success or failure of the effort rests
with Azerbaijan and Armenia - specifically with Aliev and
Kocharyan. Each man faces the daunting tasks of swallowing
enormously difficult compromises and then winning public
support for a peace pact. The proposals the Minsk Group is now
considering - whatever they may be - are aimed at helping the
two leaders along.
Copyright 2000 The Baku Sun
Referred from Habarlar-L
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