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Edited on January 9, 2001
Retired Azerbaijani Officers Call For Military Solution to Karabakh Conflict.
In recent weeks, two former Azerbaijani defense ministers and
one former deputy defense minister have publicly rejected their
government's insistence that the Karabakh conflict must be resolved by
means of peaceful negotiations, and demanded a new military campaign to
bring the unrecognized enclave back under Baku's control. Former Deputy
Defense Minister Colonel Isa Sadykhov even argued that a successful
military action to liberate the Azerbaijani territories currently occupied
by Armenian troops is a necessary precondition for signing any peace
agreement.

The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry's response to those statements suggests
that it considers such war mongering inappropriate and dangerous.

The first to call for a new offensive was retired Major-General Tacaddin
Mehdiev, who served briefly as Azerbaijan's defense minister from
mid-December 1991 to mid-February 1992. One of the founders of National
Liberation Movement founded in the spring of 2000 to liberate the occupied
territories by force, Mehdiev argued that a peaceful solution to Karabakh
conflict is impossible. He estimated the current strength of the country's
armed forces at five corps plus other military units, with a total of 220
tanks and the same number of armored vehicles and armored personnel
carriers. (Those latter figures correspond to the maximum Azerbaijan is
permitted under the revised CFE Treaty.) Mehdiev characterized
Azerbaijan's army as "far from professional," arguing that it would be
more effective to maintain a force of 40,000 professionals than 100,000
inadequately trained servicemen.

Responding to Mehdiev's disclosures on independent ANS-TV on 23 December,
Defense Ministry press service head Ramiz Malikov accused him of divulging
classified information and of "treason" and threatened to bring a court
case against him.

The second call for military action came from retired General Dadash
Rzaev, who served as Azerbaijan's defense minister from late February
until early June 1993. The independent Azerbaijani News Service quoted
Rzaev on 28 December as calling for a military solution to the Karabakh
conflict that would entail liberating the occupied territories. But unlike
his predecessor, Rzaev argued that the current state of the Azerbaijani
armed forces is satisfactory. He rejected as exaggerated media reports
claiming that typhoid and tuberculosis are endemic in the army.

The third former senior officer to advocate a new Karabakh offensive was
former Deputy Defense Minister Colonel Isa Sadykhov, who together with a
dozen comrades quit the Karabakh Liberation Organization in November to
protest what he termed that organization's "involvement in politics" and
subsequently founded the Union of Reserve Officers. Some 600 delegates
attended the Union's founding congress in Baku in mid-December, according
to "Zerkalo" on 19 December. Speaking at that gathering, Sadykhov and
others argued that Azerbaijan's estimated 50,000 reserve officers should
play a more effective role in training the current military intake. Some
delegates to the congress also aired pent-up grievances, for example at
having been ordered to retreat in 1992-1993 from strategic positions.
Other speakers criticized the low salaries and pensions paid to current
and retired servicemen.

Speaking at a press conference in Baku on 29 December, Sadykhov again
expressed his "distrust" in the Azerbaijani leadership's commitment to a
negotiated solution to the Karabakh conflict, arguing that the armed
forces and the people together are capable of securing a military victory
in Karabakh. He said that neither his union nor the Azerbaijani people
would accept a "defeatist" solution to the conflict. The Union also issued
a statement calling for government measures to improve the financing and
general strength of the Azerbaijani armed forces which, the statement
said, should aim to meet the standards of the Turkish and other NATO
armies.

A group of Russian journalists from "Obshchaya gazeta" who toured the
frontline in Fizuli last fall quoted several serving Azerbaijani officers
as professing their readiness to fight in a new war to liberate
Azerbaijan's occupied territories. But they also quoted Defense Minister
Colonel General Safar Abiev as expressing concern lest any of the periodic
exchanges of fire between Armenian and Azerbaijani troops mushroom into a
new full-scale conflict. (Liz Fuller)
RFE/RL Caucasus Report, 8 January 2001, Volume 4, Number 1

Azeris say Armenia doing well in trade
"despite blockade"

BBC Monitoring Service - United Kingdom; Jan 7, 2001

Text of Q. Mammadzada report by Azerbaijani newspaper Zerkalo entitled "The
Trade Ministry is entitled to state"

[Subhead] The ministry exposes Armenia's theses of the blockade by
Azerbaijan

The Azerbaijani Trade Ministry has conducted a thorough analysis of the
condition and structure of the foreign economic trade relations of the South
Caucasian countries by comparing their economic indicators. Sources in the
Trade Ministry believe that this makes it possible to shed light on some of
the political events that have been happening in our region of late.

Armenian propagandists, who are shouting from the rooftops about how
difficult it is to carry out trade operations and how low trade turnover is
due to a "blockade" by Azerbaijan, have long been working intensively to
shape public opinion.

However, research and figures show the lack of substance of this Armenian
thesis, under the influence of which the Armenians managed to get the US
Congress to pass Section 907. And this is when 20 per cent of Azerbaijani
lands are under Armenian occupation, and refugees from "blockaded" Armenia,
according to the Trade Ministry, account for 12.5 per cent of Azerbaijan's
population.

[Subhead] Armenia hinders cooperation between Azerbaijan and Turkey

It is Armenia that restricts communications between Azerbaijan and Turkey,
one of Azerbaijan's main trading partners at the moment, as trade
transportation between the two countries has to be carried out through the
territory of third countries, particularly Iran.

The dynamics of foreign trade operations show that in recent times Armenia
has enjoyed a trade and economic advantage over its neighbours - Azerbaijan
and Georgia, which are larger than that country both in terms of their
territory and population.

We can cite some figures for comparison. Thus, in the period 1994-1998,
trade turnover in Azerbaijan, which has a population of 8m, was 5,994.5m
dollars, whereas in Armenia, with its 4m residents, the volume of exports
and imports was 3,801.5m dollars, and in neighbouring Georgia, with a
population of 5.5m people, the trade turnover was only 3,296.5m dollars.

This tendency was on the increase right up to 2000. The same thing is
confirmed by analysis of the dynamics of foreign investments coming into the
South Caucasus countries. Despite the fact that Armenia is less attractive
to foreign investors than Azerbaijan and Georgia, our neighbours have
outstripped Azerbaijan in this sphere as well.

Perhaps, had Azerbaijan imposed a real blockade on Armenia, it would
scarcely have surpassed Georgia in terms of the size of its foreign trade
balance, especially given the latter's favourable geographical position and
access to the sea.

There are also interesting comparisons made by the Ministry of Trade on the
issue of humanitarian aid being distributed among the Caucasian countries by
the international community.

In this area, it is simply impossible to conceal the palpable disproportion
in the West's, and in particular the USA's, humanitarian fondness for
Armenia. Armenia lies in third place in the world in terms of the volume of
aid per head of the population from the USA.

It was the USA that, thanks to its oil and fuel supplies, helped our
bellicose neighbours to stand their ground in the hard years of 1993-95. The
same thing happened in 1996-97. The same thing is happening now. It is not
by chance that a US Peace Corps has settled in this country and that the
USAID mission - US Agency for International Development - has opened its
central office in Armenia.

Over the last three years, Armenia received aid amounting to 238.9m dollars
to carry out its economic reforms, Georgia - 260.4m dollars and Azerbaijan -
even less, only 91.6m dollars.

All in all, over the last seven years, Armenia has received humanitarian aid
to the tune of 1.2bn dollars from the USA. Azerbaijan is significantly
behind in this category as well, since over the same period we received aid
to the tune of only 425m dollars. We should point out that such "norms" for
distributing humanitarian aid in the South Caucasus can be boldly attributed
to aid from other international organizations, too.

Taking these facts as a basis, there is a question: Is Armenia, which is
suffering from a mythical blockade by Azerbaijan, doing so badly? Or is it
Azerbaijan that is still trying to extricate itself from the consequences of
the information blockade and deliberate propaganda by Armenia?

Source: Zerkalo, Baku, in Russian 6 Jan 01 p 10

Azeri officials see sinister portent behind Zhirinovskiy's
Karabakh remarks

BBC Monitoring Service - United Kingdom; Jan 5, 2001

[Presenter] The Deputy Speaker of the Russian Duma and chairman of the
Liberal Democratic Party, Vladimir Zhirinovskiy, has made a statement on the
resolution of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict ahead of Russian President
Vladimir Putin's visit to Baku. He believes that Karabakh must be placed
under Russian rule if the problem between Azerbaijan and Armenia cannot be
solved. Asaf Cafarli reports from the Moscow bureau of ANS:

[Correspondent on the phone] Political observers assess Putin's visit to the
South Caucasus as another attempt to strengthen Russia's position in this
region. However, it is too early to say whether relations between Azerbaijan
and Russia will improve until all the problems between these two countries
are solved. The problems hindering the improvement of relations are Russia's
position on the Nagornyy Karabakh problem, payments for the use of the
Qabala radar system and the transfer of weapons from military bases in
Georgia to Armenia. At the same time, the situation in the North Caucasus,
particularly in Chechnya, provides an opportunity for anti-Azerbaijani
forces in Russia to criticize Azerbaijan and say that Chechen mojahedin are
allegedly being treated there. These forces are also demanding that these
Chechens be handed over to Russia.

[Passage omitted: Russian politicians on Azerbaijani-Russian ties]

[Correspondent] The leader of the Russian Liberal Democrats, Vladimir
Zhirinovskiy, has come out with more radical statements. He has proposed
that Karabakh be placed under Russian rule as the Azerbaijanis cannot reach
an agreement with the Armenians. In general, Putin's visit to Baku has not
been the subject of broad discussions in the political arena. Experts say
that the reason for this might be that many officials are wary of commenting
on Putin's policy because of previous forecasts.

[Presenter] Some political observers in Azerbaijan believe that Vladimir
Zhirinovskiy's statements signal a dangerous process. The idea of Russian
rule in Karabakh is aimed at preparing public opinion for the deployment of
Russian forces in Karabakh. Leyla Tagiyeva reports:

[Correspondent over video showing political analyst Musabayov's office]
According to political analyst Rasim Musabayov, humorists should comment on
the ideas of the deputy Speaker of the Russian Duma, Vladimir Zhirinovskiy,
not politicians. Zhirinovskiy is repeating the idea of Karabakh as Russian
territory voiced by the Speaker of the Russian State Duma. According to the
political analyst, the deployment of the Russian army in Karabakh would mean
the restoration of a protectorate and Azerbaijan cannot accept this.

The deputy chairman of the People's Front of Azerbaijan Party for
international relations, Asim Mollazada, says that these statements must be
seen as a sign of a dangerous process given that such statements by
Zhirinovskiy, who is known for his foolishness, are later repeated by more
serious politicians.

[Asim Mollazada in his office] These statements are connected to plans to
restore Russia's monopoly over the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict, to extract
the settlement process from its international framework and consequently
return the Russian army to Azerbaijan. This is a very dangerous process.

[Correspondent] Asim Mollazada believes that Azerbaijani politicians should
bear this danger in mind.

Source: ANS TV, Baku, in Azeri 1700 gmt 04 Jan 01
News referred from Habarlar-L
Edited on January 6, 2001
ELEVEN AZERBAIJANI SOLDIERS KILLED BY AVALANCHE.
A total of 11 servicemen, including one officer, have been killed in three separate
avalanches on Mount Inaldag, near the Armenian-Azerbaijani frontier, Turan and
Interfax reported on 3 January. Two men died on 17 December, three on 21 December
and six on 27 December. To date, four bodies have been recovered. Rescue operations
are continuing. LF
RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol. 5, No. 2, Part I, 4 January 2001

Karabakh cannot take part in peace talks as third party, Azeri official says
BBC Monitoring Service - United Kingdom; Dec 30, 2000

Text of report by Azerbaijani newspaper 525 Qazet on 30 December entitled
"Armenia presents its desires as the truth"

Commenting on the statement by Armenian President Robert Kocharyan that if
Nagornyy Karabakh is not involved in the settlement process, further
negotiations are meaningless, a department chief of the [Azerbaijani]
Presidential Executive Staff, Novruz Mammadov, has told MPA news agency that
Armenia is trying to present its desires as the truth. "Armenia should
understand that such a position can lead to a deadlock," Mammadov said and
noted that Azerbaijan could agree to the "NKR"'s [Nagornyy Karabakh
Republic] participation in the talks only on condition that its
[Azerbaijan's] territorial integrity was recognized and the so-called
republic participated as a part of Azerbaijan. Mammadov thinks it impossible
for Karabakh to participate in the talks as a third party taking account of
the current situation. He says that Armenia is trying to influence public
opinion. The OSCE Minsk Group has decided that the next talks will be held
in the Azerbaijan-Armenia format. The Azerbaijani and Armenian communities
of Nagornyy Karabakh are expected to take part in the talks as interested
sides. Heads of the communities attend meetings with the chairmen of the
Minsk Group side by side with the conflicting parties. "Thus, the
participation of all parties in the negotiating process is ensured,"
Mammadov stressed.

Source: 525 qazet, Baku, in Azeri 30 Dec 00 p2

Azeri president welcomes Muslim countries' support over Karabakh
BBC Monitoring Service - United Kingdom; Dec 28, 2000

[Presenter] Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev congratulated the
Azerbaijani people on the end of Ramadan holiday and said he hoped their
prayers and wishes would come true. The head of state said that the Ramadan
holiday demonstrated the determination, will and spirituality of people who
believe in God and love their motherland, and reassured the people that the
current difficulties causing disenchantment today would soon be left behind,
our lands would be liberated from enemy occupation and the people would live
in luxury and have the welfare they deserve.

The president talked about the Ramadan holiday and the Karabakh conflict at
his meeting today with the ambassadors of some Muslim countries to
Azerbaijan. Here is Qanira Pasayeva with the details.

[Correspondent over video of the reception] During Soviet times we were fed
the propaganda that religion was the opium of the people, that religion,
like opium, was bad for them. President Heydar Aliyev said this at his
meeting with the ambassadors to Azerbaijan representing Muslim countries -
Turkey, Libya, Iran, Uzbekistan, Iraq, Turkmenistan, Pakistan, Egypt, Saudi
Arabia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. [Passage omitted: Number of people
observing Ramadan in Azerbaijan has increased, Turkish envoy congratulated
president, as well as refugees.]

The countries of the world see Azerbaijan as an Islamic country and the
adoption of three resolutions about Azerbaijan during the recent meeting of
the Organization of the Islamic Conference [OIC] shows that these countries
have great confidence in Azerbaijan, the Iranian ambassador to Azerbaijan,
Ahad Gaza'i, said. Expressing his agreement with the OIC resolution, the
president, however, was critical of some organizations.

[Heydar Aliyev] Armenia occupied 20 per cent of Azerbaijani territory and
more than one million of our citizens were displaced from their homes. But
we have no success in getting such resolutions adopted during our meetings
with the representatives of numerous international organizations, including
the OSCE.

[Correspondent] The president next reprimanded the UN. Heydar Aliyev said
that despite the fact that the UN had issued a resolution about the
unconditional withdrawal of Armenian armed forces from Azerbaijani lands,
this had not been carried out.

[Heydar Aliyev] Armenia ignores this and the UN and its Security Council are
helpless to get them to implement this resolution.

[Correspondent] The president said that after lengthy efforts it was written
into the recently signed agreement between the UN and the OSCE that Karabakh
is Azerbaijani land and Muslim countries displayed solidarity and voted for
this. Underlining the great significance of this unanimity, the president
congratulated the envoys of the Muslim countries on [31st December,
Azerbaijani] Solidarity Day, too.

Source: ANS TV, Baku, in Azeri 1700 gmt 27 Dec 00

Azeri TV reports village near Armenian border "fired on all the time"
BBC Monitoring Service - United Kingdom; Dec 27, 2000

Text of report by Azerbaijani TV station ANS on 26 December

[Presenter] Cafarli village in Qazax District, which is on the border with
Armenia, has been fired on quite often from the Armenian side. The violation
of the cease-fire here has mainly resulted in human casualties. Sahla
Abdinova reports from ANS bureau in Qanca.

[Reporter over video showing the village] The village of Cafarli is located
in the most dangerous place, in the border area between Armenia and Qazax
District. This village is divided into two population centres: Boyuk Cafarli
and Kicik Cafarli. This is Boyuk Cafarli. The village borders on four
villages in Armenia's Idzhevan District. At the same time, the Armenian
military have men deployed in the villages of Barxudarli and Soflu [as
heard] in the occupied Qazax District.

Ali, Mustafayev, the deputy head of the village authorities, said that
inhabitants of the village had to leave there in 1992 when Armenians invaded
the village.

[Mustafayev] In general, not all the residents left the village. Men took
women and children out of the village and then came back themselves and
continued to live here.

[Reporter] At that time, the villagers set up a self-defence group and
prevented attempts to occupy the village. At the end of the year, all the
villagers returned to the village. At that time, six people were killed
here. People here say that despite the cease-fire, the village is being
subjected to small arms fire from Armenia all the time.

[Mustafayev] I personally fled and escaped from the firing from the Armenian
side for two hours. Sometimes they fire every day. People are so used to
this small arms fire that it no longer scares them. But people are afraid of
firing from heavy hardware, which, relatively speaking, happens less
frequently.

Local inhabitants say that they are occupied with the problems of everyday
life and are no longer afraid of the sporadic firing. In recent years, 12
people have become victims of shootings from Armenia. Sahla Abdinova, Rafiq
Naqiyev, ANS.

Source: ANS TV, Baku, in Azeri 1700 gmt 26 Dec 00

Azeri president inclining towards Russian proposals on Karabakh
BBC Monitoring Service - United Kingdom; Dec 27, 2000

Text of Tural report by Azerbaijani newspaper Millat entitled "Heydar Aliyev
inclines towards Russia"

[Subhead] Political scientist Rasim Musabayov believes that the future fate
of his successor is making the president take this step

The signing of a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia is again on
the agenda. We should recall that similar reports on the possible signing of
an agreement came to light in 1999. At present, what is being spoken of is
an intermediate accord for "confidence-building" measures. We asked a member
of the board of the Musavat Party's supreme council, Rasim Musabayov, to
comment on this issue as an expert.

Rasim Musabayov believes that Russia is taking advantage of the lack of
confidence between the sides to offer its services in providing "exclusive
guarantees": "I should recall that this is not a fresh proposal from Russia.
Even when Kalbacar [Kelbadzhar] was occupied, Russia was urging the despatch
of a regiment of airborne troops to the region to cleanse Karabakh of
Armenians. The same proposal was made by Russia when the Bishkek protocol
was signed. They intended to station only their military forces in the
region." However, the expert believes that Heydar Aliyev did not accept this
proposal at the insistence, primarily, of the West and Turkey. Rasim
Musabayov thinks that at present Heydar Aliyev seems to want to realize his
plan for his successor, and for this and other reasons is inclining towards
Russia's proposals [the president wants to obtain Russian support for his
son, Ilham Aliyev, to succeed him as Azerbaijani president]. These proposals
stipulate the stationing of Russian military forces in the region as a
long-term guarantor of peace. The Abkhaz and Ossetian experiences indicate
that such a step cannot be positive."

Rasim Musabayov is sure that "confidence-building" measures envisage
economic and other cooperation with Armenia: "However, the essence is that
Russian troops are stationed in the region. As a result, we should be
obliged to overcome not only Armenia's resistance, but also that of Russian
forces. The expert believes that the West is also making a mistake in
supporting Armenia's suggestion on cooperation, including economic
cooperation, despite the fact that territories are still occupied: "The West
believes that it can in this fashion distance Armenia from Russia. However,
neither Western nor Russian proposals meet the interests of Azerbaijan."

Source: Millat, Baku, in Azeri 27 Dec 00 p 2

PRESENCE OF THIRD COUNTRY IN NAGORNO-KARABAKH DOESNT SUIT AZERBAIJAN,
AZERBAIJAN FM

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan Vilayat Guliyev said the
information spread by Russia mass media that the leadership of this
country was going to use the Kazimirov standards for solution of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict didnt correspond to the facts. The minister said
there hasnt been any official proposal made by Russian diplomatic circles,
while they are free to think it as its not prohibited. Asked what will be
Azerbaijans stance if such a proposal will be made by the Russian side, Mr
Guliyev said Azerbaijan was ready to discuss any proposal aimed at
adjustment of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict but added a document was
required for conduction of such discussions. The head of nations foreign
diplomacy office said Azerbaijan could agree only to the variant which
would leave the separatist region under its sovereignty. The presence of a
third country in Karabakh doesnt suit us, Mr Guliyev said. Asked whether
the Kazimirov standards were mentioned during the recent talks between
Azeri and Armenian presidents, Mr Guliyev said they werent discussed. The
minister added that such kind of proposals wasnt made even during the
recent visit of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs to the region.

BY Narmina Rustamova
ANS News, December 27, 2000

Nagorno-Karabakh no closer to peace in spite of this year's efforts
YEREVAN, Dec 27 (AFP) - The 12-year-old
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is no closer to resolution
despite this year's efforts, Armenia's Foreign
Minister Vardan Oskanyan told reporters on Tuesday.
However, the sides managed to keep to the ceasefire
agreement and their commitment to resolving the issue
by way of compromise, Oskanyan added.

The OSCE pan-European security organisation's Minsk
group, tasked with finding a solution to the
Armenian-Azerbaijani dispute over the rebel enclave,
hosted talks to resolve the issue earlier this month,
but the talks soon reached an impasse.

"The Minsk group offered no new solutions to the
Karabakh issue so far, but I think they are waiting
for the results in the direct negotiations between
(Azeri President Heydar) Aliyev and (Armenian
President Robert) Kocharyan," Oskanyan said.

"If there are no significant results, the group will
become more active again," he added.

One of the group's co-chairs, US Ambassador Carey
Cavanaugh, had suggested that Turkey could become a
key player in resolving the conflict, but Yerevan
thinks Turkey unfit to join the process because of its
policies toward Armenia.

"Before joining the process, Turkey must unblock its
roads to Armenia, open diplomatic relations with us
and take a neutral stance in the Karabakh conflict,"
Oskanyan said.

The two sides remain divided over allegations that
Ottoman Turkish forces massacred some 1.5 million
Armenians during World War I.

Ankara, out of solidarity with Baku, also severed ties
with Yerevan during the Karabakh war.

More than 30,OOO people died and nearly a million
people were displaced after the ethnic Armenian
majority in Nagorno-Karabakh launched a rebellion in
1988.

Oskanyan also outlined Armenia's foreign policy this
year, which featured successful negotiations on
building a gas pipeline between Armenia and Iran and
the supply of Iraqi oil to Armenia.

"We are developing economic and diplomatic relations
with Iraq in the framework of UN resolutions,"
Oskanyan commented.

In 2001 Yerevan aims to begin Armenia's integration
into various European structures, including the
European Union.

"We plan to apply for membership in the European Union
and will expect an answer in principle," the minister
said.

12/27/2000
Agence France-Presse

Occupation Of Azeri Land A Mistake
The occupation of 20% of Azeri lands, presence of Russian military units
in Armenia and anti-Turkic activities are among Yerevans wrong steps, says
a report on Armenias foreign policy prepared by an authoritative Israeli
Strategic Research Center "Besha".
The report highlights that Armenia aspires to become a member of Nato and
other European entities, though its foreign political course does not meet
their requirements. Because of its anti-Azerbaijan and anti-Turkish
position, Armenia remains unaffected by the regions strategic energy
projects, which further complicates its economic development and living
standards of the population.
The presence of an extensive and organized Diaspora and influential
political lobby abroad is not enough for Armenia`s progress, the report
says.
The document also stresses Armenia`s absolute military and economic
dependence on Russia and Iran. For the country to develop, the Center
recommends radical changes in policy, cooperation with Azerbaijan and
Turkey and active participation in regional energy projects.

Shusha Anniversary To Be Marked
A one-day conference dedicated to the 250th anniversary of Shusha will be
held at the State Theater of Musical Comedy Friday. The town, located in
Upper Garabagh, was seized by Armenians in 1992 and is still under
occupation.
Minister for Culture Polad Bul-Bul oglu and renowned historians such as
Doctor of History Prof. Farida Mammadova, director of the Scientific
Research Institute of Literature, Prof. Yashar Garayev, etc. are expected
to address the conference organized by the Ministry of Culture. Also
delivered will be reports on the history of the Shusha fort, the town`s
arts and architecture, as well as music and carpet- weaving crafts.

AssA-Irada News, December 19-22, 2000

Russia Denies Arming Azeri Rival Armenia, Hopes
for Closer Ties With Baku

BAKU, Dec 26, 2000 -- (Agence France Presse) Russia has never supplied arms
to Azerbaijan's neighbor and foe, Armenia, Russian Defense Minister Igor
Sergeyev said on Monday during a brief visit to Azerbaijan's capital Baku.

"The prosecutor general investigated the accusations. There were no illegal
arms sales," Sergeyev said after two hours of talks with his Azeri
counterpart Safar Abiyev.

Baku had accused Moscow of supplying up to one billion dollars worth of arms
to its rival in the 11-year undeclared war over Nagorno Karabakh, an
Armenian-populated enclave which broke away from Azerbaijan in 1988 in an
attempt to unite with Armenia proper.

Azeri President Heydar Aliyev had repeatedly raised this issue in talks with
Russian leaders, demanding they stop the sales and punish the guilty
parties.

Sergeyev said that Moscow favors stronger military ties with Baku, offering
help in updating Azerbaijan's Soviet-made military hardware and military
facilities, and cooperating in the sphere of air defense.

Moscow "is ready for military cooperation on mutually acceptable terms and
hopes that Azerbaijan's military leadership will respond appropriately to
this," Sergeyev said as quoted by the Interfax news agency.

During two-hour negotiations, the two ministers signed a plan for
cooperation between the two countries' defense departments and an agreement
on training Azeri officers in Russia's military colleges.

The ministers also discussed the future of the Gabala radio monitoring
station in Azerbaijan, which Moscow leases from Baku.

"Our positions have a lot in common," Sergeyev said, adding that he hoped
that a compromise on this issue could be found before Russian President
Vladimir Putin's visit to Baku in early January.

Russia is said to owe Azerbaijan hundreds of thousands of dollars in rent
for the facility.

Azeri defence minister says Russia sent illegal
supply of arms to Armenia

BBC Monitoring Service - United Kingdom; Dec 27, 2000

Text of report by Azerbaijani TV station ANS on 26 December

[Presenter] Azerbaijani Defence Minister Safar Abiyev again spoke today
about cases of illegal supplies of Russian arms to Armenia. In this
connection, he denied a statement by Russian Defence Minister Igor Sergeyev
who said yesterday at a news conference in Baku that there had not been any
illegal supplies.

[Safar Abiyev, speaking to journalists] The Russian Federation sent illegal
supplies [of arms] to Armenia between 1993-96. As far as I know, the
[Russian] General Military Prosecutor's Office has the documents.

[Igor Sergeyev, standing near and smiling] Here you are. Now you have put it
right.

[Safar Abiyev] The Prosecutor's Office is considering the case, however,
Russia has not answered the question yet.

[Igor Sergeyev] The issue should be considered by the Prosecutor's Office
and only by the Prosecutor's Office. And we have no right [to interfere].

Source: ANS TV, Baku, in Russian 1600 gmt 26 Dec 00

Armenian minister comments on importance of amendment 907, Karabakh problem
BBC Monitoring Service - United Kingdom; Dec 26, 2000

Text of report by Armenian news agency Snark on 26 December

Yerevan, 26 December: The continuance of amendment 907 to the Freedom
Support Act by the US Congress, which bans rendering direct American
government aid to Azerbaijan because of Baku's blockade of Armenia and
Nagornyy Karabakh, is one of the main points concerning the settlement of
the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict, Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan
told journalists at a press conference today.

The minister said that the continuance of amendment 907 has a higher
priority for Armenia than cooperation with the USA on issues of security.
The waiving of amendment 907 might be wrongly interpreted by Azerbaijan and
could play a negative role in the process of the settlement of the Karabakh
confrontation. As such, Armenia favours the continuance of amendment 907,
Oskanyan noted.

It should be noted that the said amendment bans direct US aid to Azerbaijan
and it includes the military sphere, too. This, as US Defence Secretary
William Cohen noted at a meeting with Armenian Defence Minister Serzh
Sarkisyan in July [2000] in Washington, hinders the development of military
cooperation between the USA and both Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Source: Snark news agency, Yerevan, in Russian 1250 gmt 26 Dec 00

US VETERANS OPPOSED TO 907
Chairman of the Union of World War II veterans of Azerbaijan Altai
Mammadov has returned from a meeting of the World Veterans Federation
(WVF) general assembly in Paris and told journalists that chairman of the
US committee of veterans, former congressman Mr. Cook announced at the
meeting that his organization would demand the US Congress to abolish the
unfair Section 907.
Besides US representatives, supporting Azerbaijan were delegates from
Turkey, Luxembourg, South Korea, as well as chairman of the WVF.
Azernews, No. 51 (181), December 20 - 26, 2000

Azeri TV says Armenian radio programmes being
broadcast to Azeri districts

BBC Monitoring Service - United Kingdom; Dec 26, 2000

Text of report by Azerbaijani TV station ANS

[Presenter] Azerbaijan, which is losing the war in the military field, is
also being denied victory in the information field. Armenian radio and TV
channels are being broadcast to 50-60 per cent of our republic, while
Azerbaijani channels cannot be broadcast to the whole of the country.
Despite the fact that ANS CM broadcasts on 102 FM in Baku and Abseron
[peninsula], Armenian radio replaces it in Salyan, Samaxi, Calilabad and
other districts.

[Correspondent over video showing a Karabakh village] Although there has
been a cease-fire in the Azerbaijani-Armenian war for six years, an
information war is going on. Unfortunately, the Azerbaijani side is
incapable of using its potential to take adequate measures against Armenia
in this field as well. As is known, the full information blockade of
Azerbaijan in January 1990 stopped the delivery of the truth about the
Sumqayit events, the situation in Karabakh and the movement of Russian
troops into Baku and other realities being delivered to the world community.
This failed to serve as a lesson for some officials in Azerbaijan. Now [the
inhabitants of] Salyan, Bilasuvar and Calilabad districts have started
listening to Armenian radio programmes. ANS CM employees were witnesses to
the fact that Armenian radio stations were broadcasting on 102 FM when they
were on business trips to these districts.

[Correspondent] We would like to bring to the attention of the authorities
in our country that radio programmes of the puppet Nagornyy Karabakh
republic are broadcast in Armenian on 102 FM in Salyan, Bilasuvar and
Calilabad. Specialists believe that a 5 kW transmitter has been placed in
Susa town, which is 1,500 metres above sea level. Thus, the range of the
radio signal is from 80-100 km, depending on the terrain. That is why the
programmes of that radio station can be heard in Saki, Samaxi, Kurdamir and
other adjacent districts. So, remember that if you hear Armenian programmes
in 102 FM outside Baku it means that enlightenment work is being carried out
on occupied Azerbaijani lands.

Samira Safaraliyeva, Elcin Hasanov, ANS

Source: ANS TV, Baku, in Azeri 1700 gmt 25 Dec 00

Armenia: Reuters Interview With
President Kocharyan: 21 Dec 00

By Martin Nesirky
12/21/2000 Reuters English News Service
(exerpts)
YEREVAN, Dec 21 (Reuters) - Armenian President Robert Kocharyan said on
Thursday his country's economy was finally on the mend after the deep
shock of a 1999 attack on parliament in which his prime minister and
other officials were gunned down.  In a wide-ranging interview with
Reuters, Kocharyan also said he could meet Azeri President Haydar
Aliyev in the first quarter of next year on their joint border to
discuss the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.

And he spoke out against NATO enlargement in the tinderbox Caucasus
region.Armenia was plunged into a political - and economic - crisis
it could ill-afford in October last year when gunmen led by a radical
nationalist burst into parliament and shot dead eight people.
...
Kocharyan, 46, a former Nagorno-Karabakh leader who was elected in
1998, said GDP growth was likely to be about five percent this year. It
would have been even better but for a severe drought which hit
agriculture across the region...
He agreed the Nagorno-Karabakh problem hampered economic growth
potential but said the country and businesses had adapted to Turkish
and Azeri blockade that limit export routes.
...
Despite sporadic skirmishes, a ceasefire has held in Nagorno-Karabakh -
an internationally-recognised part of Azerbaijan populated mostly by
ethnic Armenians - since 1994 following six years of fighting in which
35,000 people died.

CAUTIOUS ON KARABAKH PEACE

Kocharyan was cautious about the prospects for a permanent solution:
"It's a thankless task to make predictions, in particular on solving
the Nagorno-Karabakh question."

"Too optimistic statements from leaders raise excessive expectations in
society here, in Azerbaijan and Karabakh", he said.

The Armenian leader said he would continue to meet Aliyev, probably
next in Strasbourg in January, if both countries jointly enter the
Council of Europe, which was set up in 1949 as a club of western
European democracies but has ballooned since the fall of Communism a
decade ago.

But a separate bilateral meeting could take place on the border between
the two states, he said, noting that the two presidents met in similar
circumstances last year.

"We have agreed on possible one-to-one meetings," he said. "I think
such a meeting may be possible at the end of winter or the beginning of
spring."

On NATO, he said Armenia would step up cooperation with the alliance
but did not envisage even thinking about entry talks.

He cautioned against the appearance of "new military components" - a
veiled reference to possible NATO bases in neighbouring Georgia or
Azerbaijan, which have been more enthusiastic about the alliance.

"One needs to be extremely careful," he said, adding there could
otherwise be a new arms race in the region. Armenia tends to be more
pro-Russia than other states in the Caucasus.

Turkish News -- Thu, 28 Dec 00

Turkey struggling against "Armenian genocide allegations" - minister
BBC Monitoring Service - United Kingdom; Dec 30, 2000

Text of report in English by the Turkish news agency Anatolia

Antalya, 28 December: Foreign Minister Ismail Cem said on Thursday [28
December] that they are struggling against the injustice made against Turkey
by the so-called Armenian genocide allegations.

Cem told reporters that the so-called Armenian genocide allegations were
intentionally brought to the agenda in some countries during the election
days and that injustice is made against Turkey by these so-called
allegations.

"Some incidents which occurred as France and Russia provoked the Armenians
after the nationalist movements started to spread throughout the world after
the 19th century are brought to the agenda of some countries during
especially election periods. These incidents are used as a tool to gain
votes. Genocide means annihilating the whole race," Cem said.

Cem added, "If there had been a genocide against the Armenians, this would
have also been made in Istanbul. Turkey is behaved unjustly regarding this
issue [sentence as received]. We are telling this in every platform but it
is difficult to explain the realities to those who do not want to understand
them. We are struggling against the injustice made against Turkey by the
so-called Armenian genocide allegations. We will enable such incidents to be
relegated to the pages of history."

When asked about Turkey's foreign relations, Cem said that although Turkey
has not recorded visits in the level of heads of state with the Turkic
republics, positive developments have been marked in the relations for the
last six months.

Cem noted that the economic relations with north African countries and Libya
are very well.

Emphasizing that the trade with Sudan, which was 4m US dollars three years
ago, increased to 32m US dollars this year, Cem said that Turkey is a
determinant country in the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC).

Cem said that more positive developments were marked in the US foreign
policy during the Bill Clinton administration and that the relations with
the USA started to be promoted in the last period.

"We are trying to increase our exports to the USA. The US people started to
visit Turkey," Cem said.

Significant changes occurred in Turkey's foreign policy, Cem stated, and
went on saying, "There were two big cornerstones in front of us. One of
these was the European Union (EU) candidacy and the second was the accession
partnership accord. The claims regarding the discrimination among minorities
were not included in the accord by our initiatives. Turkey's national
programme will start to be prepared by January. If Turkey does not slow down
its dynamism and energy, our path will be open."

Source: Anatolia news agency, Ankara, in English 1329 gmt 28

AZERBAIJANI LEADERSHIP DISAPPOINTED BY OSCE MINSK GROUP VISIT.
Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Vilayat Guliev told ANS
TV on 13 December that his government is disappointed by the
failure of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairman to present new
ideas for a settlement of the Karabakh dispute during their
visit to Baku earlier this week (see "RFE/RL Caucasus
Report," Vol. 3, No. 48, 14 December 2000). PG

[RFE] END NOTE
HOW CLOSE IS A SETTLEMENT OF THE KARABAKH CONFLICT?

By Liz Fuller

The recent visit by the co-chairmen of the OSCE Minsk
Group to Ankara, Yerevan, Stepanakert, and Baku has again
raised hopes that a solution to the Karabakh conflict may be
within reach. The co-chairs apparently hope that the promise
of substantial economic benefits could induce the conflict
parties to rethink their positions and show a greater
readiness for compromise than they have done in the past. And
the stopover of two of the three co-chairs in Ankara
highlights the role envisaged by the international community
for Turkey in providing economic assistance to both Armenia
and Azerbaijan once a final peace agreement is reached.
The U.S. co-chair, Carey Cavanaugh, told journalists in
Yerevan on 11 December after his meeting with Armenian
President Robert Kocharian that "the impression we have now
is that all conflicting parties want to move forward and get
a concrete result as soon as possible." The previous day,
Cavanaugh had lauded as "a wonderful idea" the recent pledge
by both Kocharian and his Azerbaijani counterpart, Heidar
Aliev, to try to reach a peace agreement before their
respective terms in office end in 2003.
Notwithstanding Cavanaugh's optimism and the stated
desire of the two presidents to hammer out a permanent
settlement, there are serious obstacles to any steps forward.
First, it remains unclear what form the final settlement
might take. Armenia continues to favor the so-called "common
state" model proposed by the Minsk Group in November 1998,
which envisages horizontal relations between Azerbaijan and
the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. Azerbaijan,
however, rejects the "horizontal" in favor of the "vertical"
model and is prepared to grant the disputed enclave only "the
highest degree of autonomy" within Azerbaijan. Azerbaijani
Foreign Minister Vilayat Guliev told Vienna's "Die Presse"
earlier this month that any settlement is contingent on
compromise by Armenia. Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan
Oskanian, for his part, told the same newspaper that "as long
as Azerbaijan insists Karabakh must remain under its control
as an autonomous region, there will be no solution to the
conflict."
True, the Russian Minsk Group co-chairman, Nikolai
Gribkov, told journalists in Yerevan on 11 December that all
four peace proposals offered by the Minsk Group since early
1997 remain on the table. Oskanian had suggested in July that
it may prove possible to draft a new peace plan that combines
elements of two or more of those proposals. He said that
Yerevan would not rule out that approach provided that
Karabakh's status is not pre-determined and the "package,"
rather than the "phased," approach is adopted.
Given that Stepanakert rejected the two "package" peace
proposals offered by the Minsk Group in May and July 1997 and
that Azerbaijan voiced serious reservations about those
proposals, the most promising framework from which to select
elements of a new composite peace plan is the September 1997
Minsk Group proposal. According to Gerard Libaridian, who
served as adviser to former Armenian President Levon Ter-
Petrossian, that proposal, though based on the "phased"
rather than the "package" approach, was more acceptable than
the two previous drafts to both Armenia and Karabakh insofar
as it did not include a mention of either Azerbaijan's
territorial integrity or of Karabakh's future status vis-a-
vis Baku. In addition, it provided security guarantees for
the enclave's population that were absent from the two
earlier drafts. Azerbaijan formally signaled its acceptance
of that draft in October 1997, while Armenia agreed to it "in
principle" but "with reservations." But the Karabakh
leadership, despite Yerevan's urging, rejected it.
Moreover, it is unclear who is to assume responsibility
for crafting a new, composite draft peace plan. Aliev has
said that he considers that it is the Minsk Group's
responsibility to do so. The co-chairs, in turn, have said
that they do not intend to offer yet another draft peace
proposal but that the OSCE will endorse any settlement that
Aliev and Kocharian agree to.
Nor is the peace plan itself the only bone of
contention. Armenia and Azerbaijan also disagree over the
participation of the Nagorno Karabakh leadership in the peace
process. Armenian President Kocharian has consistently argued
that the Azerbaijani leadership should conduct direct talks
with Stepanakert. Meeting in Stepanakert on 11 December with
the co-chairs, Nagorno Karabakh President Arkadii Ghukasian
argued that Karabakh representatives should participate in
the ongoing series of talks between Kocharian and
Azerbaijan's President Aliev. But Guliev in his recent
interview with "Die Presse" ruled out talks with what he
termed "a puppet regime," arguing that "it was Armenia that
supported and waged the war."
It could be argued that Baku's rejection of Stepanakert
as a negotiating partner calls into question the sincerity of
the Azerbaijani leadership's stated desire to resolve the
conflict. But Baku's action could, however, reflect its
concern that direct talks with the Karabakh leadership could
trigger mass protests in Azerbaijan by the estimated 800,000
persons forced to flee their homes during the 1993 Armenian
offensive, most of whom still live in appalling conditions in
temporary housing.
The Armenian leadership, too, must contend with a
domestic opposition that has repeatedly warned against
"selling out" Karabakh. But Oskanian told "Die Presse" that
in light of the "preparatory work" conducted by the two
presidents during their meetings since July 1999, he hopes it
may prove possible to reach a settlement in 2001.

RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol. 4, No. 242, Part I, 15 December 2000
Copyright RFE/RL

AZERI-U.S. MILITARY AGREEMENT SIGNED
The head of the military and political planning department of the U.S.
Armed Forces in Europe, Brigade General Charles Simpson and Azerbaijans
Defense Minister Colonel General Safar Abiyev signed an agreement on
cooperation between two countries defense departments in 2001. According
to the press service of the Defense Ministry of Azerbaijan, the agreement
envisions cooperation in the field of military education, mutual visits,
organization of joint measures and other issues. Analogous document was
signed by Mr Simpson in Yerevan a day earlier.

By Staff Writers

AZERI DEFENSE MINISTER MEETS ARMENIAN COUNTERPART
The Defense Minister of Azerbaijan, Safar Abiyev and his Armenian
counterpart Serge Sarkisian are to meet near the settlement of Sadarak of
the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic on December 15. This was announced by
the press service of the Defense Ministry of Azerbaijan. According to the
same source, the meeting is going to focus on the issues of beefing up the
ceasefire regime and other urgent problems.

By Staff Writers
ANS News, December 15, 2000

Azeri, Armenian party heads try to find common ground on Karabakh
BBC Monitoring Service - United Kingdom; Dec 15, 2000

Azerbaijani ANS TV broadcast its next "Front line" TV bridge between Baku
and Yerevan on 14 December at 1800 gmt. This time the programme featured the
cochairman of the Social Democratic Party of Azerbaijan, Zardust Alizada,
and the chairman of the Democratic Party of Armenia, Aram Sarkisyan. The
programme was devoted to the possible territorial swap between Azerbaijan
and Armenia. However, both sides agreed that as this variant was not being
considered by the presidents of the two countries, there was no point in
discussing it at all. So, the party leaders decided to find common ground
between the Azerbaijani and Armenian people that would help solve the
Nagornyy Karabakh conflict. Both Alizada and Sarkisyan agreed that no-one
could force any solution on the Azeris or Armenians and that if the current
leaderships of the countries were not able to settle the conflict, then a
people's movement could do this. However, Zardust Alizada decisively brushed
off the opposite side's suggestion to solve the issue by non-traditional
methods. He said that the best way would be to take advantage of rich
international experience, say no to violence and lawlessness and reject the
roles of enemies. Both Azerbaijan and Armenia should develop democracy in
order to prevent people from leaving the two countries and build
multinational states, especially as Azerbaijan has a positive experience in
this, he said.

Aram Sarkisyan noted that he also welcomed assistance by international
organizations, provided that they did not impose their decisions on the
conflicting sides. He added that the two nations needed a national expert
who knew the situation better and was better informed about interests in the
region.

Both chairmen emphasized that their parties could play a key role in finding
a solution to the conflict. In line with this solution, Azeris and Armenians
should be able to live side by side in Karabakh. Sarkisyan said that the
ceasefire achieved was not sufficient and suggested that a truce agreement
be signed, at least between the Armenian Democratic Party and the Social
Democratic Party of Azerbaijan. At the same time, he accused the Azerbaijani
media of spurring anti-Armenian hysteria. Alizada replied that this was the
result of the fact that Armenia had occupied 20 per cent of Azerbaijan's
territory.

Alizada did not accept Sarkisyan's suggestion that Armenia could lift the
blockade of the Azerbaijani exclave of Naxcivan in exchange for the lifting
of the blockade of Armenia itself. The Azerbaijani chairman said that
Armenia's blockade had simply been invented, as it had access to the world
via Georgia. Zardust Alizada stated that a solution could be achieved if the
Armenians started respecting the right of Azerbaijanis to live in Karabakh,
the Azerbaijanis did the same in response, and Armenia recognized
Azerbaijan's sovereignty over Karabakh. In turn, Aram Sarkisyan believes
that Azerbaijan and Armenia should start negotiations from scratch and first
find things in common. According to Zardust Alizada, what the two countries
have in common is that both the Azerbaijani and Armenian people do not want
to fight, they want to live in peace, but the disagreement stems from the
fact that Azerbaijani lands are under Armenian occupation.

Source: ANS TV, Baku, in Azeri 1800 gmt 14 Dec 00

Armenian politician says region, not USA, must resolve Karabakh problem
BBC Monitoring Service - United Kingdom; Dec 15, 2000

14 December: The current phase of settling the Karabakh conflict is very
complicated and not acceptable to Armenia at all, the political secretary of
the Union of Socialist Forces and Intelligentsia of Armenia, Ahot
Manucharyan, told Noyan Tapan. He expressed confidence that the "option of
territorial swop with its modifications was still on the agenda of the
cochairmen [of the OSCE Minsk Group]".

Commenting on a statement made by the Russian cochairman of the OSCE Minsk
Group, Nikolay Gribkov, on "three versions" of the territorial swop,
Manucharyan said that the cochairmen were talking about the packaged and
phased versions, which in reality were various formulas of the same - the
common state and the territorial swop. [passage omitted: reiteration of the
same idea]

Despite the emphasis placed by the OSCE chairmen on the settlement of the
conflict by the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents and Gribkov's statement
that "it takes two to tango", Manucharyan added that the reality of the
matter is quite different: the current players are not the Armenian and
Azerbaijani presidents but the current super power, the USA. In this
connection, the USA is not interested in whether Armenia and Azerbaijan will
agree or not, but the subsequent consequences. The USA is seeking to resolve
the Karabakh conflict from this angle which suits its interests.

As for Russia's role in the Karabakh conflict, Russian statements are not
different from those made by the USA or France. What is more interesting in
this respect is Russia's policy in the region.

Manucharyan said that the sides of the conflict have been offered
"artificial solutions". From this point of view, he said that the NKR's
[Nagornyy Karabakh Republic] participation in the talks about Karabakh was
very surprising. Aliyev and Kocharyan are the partners of the tango with the
encouragement of the US and I am very glad that Nagornyy Karabakh is not
taking part in this tango. The main task of the peoples in the region should
be the creation of their own symphony followed with their performance.

Manucharyan believes that the peoples of the region must accept polices that
conform to their life style and principles. They should not accept those
that safeguard other countries' interests. He said that we will determine
the destiny of our region. If our problems are to be resolved by superpowers
then this region will not have a future.

He expressed his confidence that the Caucasus' peoples are able to work out
a security system so that Azerbaijan will not be able to infringe on
Karabakh rights, otherwise it will be confronted by the Caucasus' peoples.
Manucharyan thinks that Nagornyy Karabakh has a good future in the Caucasus
and it should pursue its own policy and not those dictated by foreign
powers. Under these conditions Azerbaijan will undoubtedly take part in the
process.

Source: Noyan Tapan news agency, Yerevan, in Russian 1645 gmt 14 Dec 00
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