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Edited on March 14, 2001
Opposition leaders comment on official's no set
deadline for Karabakh statement

Text of report by Azerbaijani TV station ANS on 10 March

[Presenter] The government's proposal on no time limit for resolution of
the Nagornyy Karabakh problem is different from other suggestions voiced
over the last few years. Before the recent Armenian-Azerbaijani
negotiations in France, the Azerbaijani side at the highest level was
speaking about resolution of the problem in 2000, or in 2001. The official
of the Presidential Executive Staff, Ali Hasanov, stated for the first
time yesterday that solution of the Karabakh problem was going over to
having no set time limit. The opposition camp's reaction to this proposal
was unambiguous.

[Correspondent] The chairman of the Party for National Independence of
Azerbaijan [PNIA], Etibar Mammadov, believes that the government should
clarify what Ali Hasanov told a press conference about the problem going
over to no time limit, that is to say, the public should know whether it
was an official position or whether it was a step taken by a bureaucrat
acting on orders to ascertain public opinion.

[PNIA Chairman Etibar Mammadov] Postponement of resolution of the problem
for future generations means nonfulfillment of duties. If he [Azerbaijani
President Heydar Aliyev] is unable to carry out his duties, he should
acknowledge quietly that his efforts have yielded no results and he is
ready to give up his post. Politicians who respect their nations in normal
states choose this way.

[Correspondent] The chairman of the People's Front of Azerbaijan Party,
Ali Karimov, believes this is a scenario written by the authorities.

[PFAP Leader Ali Karimov] The statement on going over to no time limit for
resolution of the Karabakh problem means exerting pressure on refugees and
displaced persons. This step serves to compel refugees and displaced
persons to complain about their intolerable situation for an uncertain
period urging [the authorities] to do what they want, whatever the status
of Karabakh is, let alone returning our districts.

[Correspondent] The chairwoman of the Liberal Party of Azerbaijan, Lala
Sovkat, thinks that the authorities have reached an impasse over the
problem, the authorities understand that all their efforts have come to
nought and they are unable to resolve anything.

[LPA chairwoman Lala Sovkat] This issue needs the C-in-C [the president]
to demonstrate the force of his will. We cannot bequeath this inheritance
to future generations since it is a very heavy one. Our generation has
lost these territories and we should regain them.

[Correspondent] The Azerbaijani Social Democratic Party cochairmen, Araz
Alizada, believes it is better than signing a defeatist agreement. He
believes Azerbaijan should think about creating a strong army.

The general secretary of the Democratic Party of Azerbaijan [DPA], Sardar
Calaloglu, believes this opinion of the authorities is not unexpected. He
thinks neither peace nor war meet the interests of the authorities.

[Sardar Calaloglu] When a country is in a difficult socioeconomic
situation, regimes are in essence dictatorships, a country has been
subjected to foreign intervention, then a conflict is frozen and a
country's population is kept under the threat of resumption of the
conflict in order to force it to accept a dictatorial regime.

[Correspondent] The Musavat Party leader Isa Qambar's views coincide with
the authorities approaches to the problem. He says we should not hurry to
sign an agreement at any cost if we do not succeed in achieving a just
peace.

[Musavat leader Isa Qambar] If the authorities have come to this
conclusion, all be it belatedly, it goes without saying that this point is
correct. The authorities should not treat it as a frozen option. Serious
steps should be taken to realize its potential.

[Correspondent] Isa Qambar's serious steps are these: economic reforms,
strengthening of the army, an increase in political freedom and
improvement of foreign policy.
Source: ANS TV, Baku, in Azeri 1700 gmt 10 Mar 01
BBC Summary of World Broadcasts
March 13, 2001, Tuesday

Azeris have every right to fight a war, official says
   Excerpt from K. Ali report by Azerbaijani newspaper Zerkalo entitled
"No-one in the world will be able to condemn us if hostilities resume"

   [Subhead] This is the opinion of the head of the foreign relations
department of the Azerbaijani Presidential Executive Staff,  Novruz
Mammadov
   The head of the foreign relations department of the Azerbaijani
Presidential Executive Staff, Novruz Mammadov, was a member of the
Azerbaijani delegation at the talks between Presidents Heydar Aliyev and
Robert Kocharyan in Paris [on 4-5 March].
   [Correspondent] You did not participate in the tete-a-tete talks
between the two presidents. Was it possible to read from President
Aliyev's expression when he came out of the negotiating room what the
results of his meeting with President Kocharyan were?
   [Mammadov] Our president is an experienced politician and it is
impossible to read from his expression what went on at the talks.
[Passage omitted: Known details about the Paris talks]
   President Aliyev said at the news conference in Paris that there is
still hope and the talks must be continued. At the same time, I would
like to emphasize the tactics which the Armenians are using - they are
bluffing at the current difficult situation. They have no grounds, but
they are trying to deceive. However, one can sense that they are very
nervous. Maybe they will change their stance after these talks, but I
cannot say how quickly this will happen. I know this nation: they did not
expect us to adhere to our principles and they must understand that if
the current situation continues, this will end in catastrophe and nobody
will be the winner. Armenia's behaviour suggests the idea that we should
seek an alternative to peace.
   [Passage omitted: Mammadov does not expect new proposals soon]
   [Correspondent] [Former foreign minister] Tofiq Zulfuqarov and [former
head of the presidential secretariat] Eldar Namazov made public their
joint initiative yesterday. What do you think about it?
   [Mammadov] The main clause of their idea has been repeatedly voiced by
the Azerbaijani side at various meetings. Our officials used to say that
they have in mind a military solution to the conflict as well. We never
forget this option, but our mission is to give preference to peace talks.
As for the stage-by-stage settlement, Armenia firmly rejects this.
   There is no doubt that if we have to liberate our territories by
force, the Azerbaijani side will toughen its demands at the talks which
will follow. Many people agree with this clause in the Namazov-Zulfuqarov
proposal.
   Of course, bearing in mind the human and other losses which will ensue
if hostilities resume, we will have every justification for restricting
Nagornyy Karabakh's rights to cultural autonomy. The compromise to which
we now agree is valid only for peace talks. No-one in the world will be
able to condemn us if hostilities resume as we have every right to
liberate our land.
   [Passage to end omitted: No date has been set for the presidents' next
meeting]

(Baku) Zerkalo
in Russian
8 Mar 01

Former Azeri officials present "initial platform"
for Karabakh settlement

Baku, 6 March: Today, in the press club of the newspaper Zerkalo, a
presentation was held for the "Initial platform towards settlement of the
Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict", prepared by independent political
scientists - former head of the presidential secretariat Eldar Namazov and
former Foreign Minister Tofiq Zulfuqarov. According to Namazov,
representatives of the republic's intelligentsia and independent political
scientists participated in work on the document. There are two parts to
the platform - "Analysis and evaluation of the situation" and "Proposals
on negotiations within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group".

In the opinion of the authors of the draft, Azerbaijan's stance in the
negotiating process must be formed on the basis of a combination of force
and political methods. The political part envisages observance of the
principle of the territorial integrity of the Azerbaijani Republic, the
granting on this basis of a large degree of autonomy within Azerbaijan to
the Armenian and Azerbaijani population of Nagornyy Karabakh, the
possibility of the participation of multinational forces, as well as a
stage-by-stage settlement, as the package solution is unacceptable to
Baku.

The force part in the negotiations is the substantiation, preparation and
implementation of a humanitarian operation to liberate, using force, the
occupied territories outside Nagornyy Karabakh for the return of
refugees. If Armenia compels Azerbaijan to use force, it is not ruled out
that Baku will change its stance - from giving autonomy to Nagornyy
Karabakh to forming an Azerbaijani administration there, which would be
called upon to ensure security and the constitutional rights and freedoms
of citizens of the Azerbaijani Republic, regardless of nationality.

This preliminary document has been presented for the judgement of
political parties, the media and the public, and in the next few days the
draft will be submitted to parliament and the president. In future, on the
basis of critical remarks and proposals, a pan-national platform for
settlement of the conflict will be drawn up.

In the opinion of the leader of the People's Front of Azerbaijan Party,
Ali Karimov, such a single programme is necessary. "If Azerbaijan is a
victim of aggression, it has the right to select means for the liberation
of its territories," the politician said and called on the public and
political parties to reach a consensus.

The cochairman of the Social Democratic Party, Zardust Alizada, said that
the possible reaction of the world community and international
organizations to these proposals had been taken into account during work
on the platform.

The document by the independent political scientists was supported by
Ilyas Ismayilov (Justice Party), Sabir Rustamxanli (Civic Solidarity
Party), Mais Safarli (Compatriot Party), Arzu Abdullayeva (Azerbaijani
national committee of the Helsinki Citizens' Assembly) and Nizami
Suleymanov (Independent Azerbaijan Party).

Source: MPA news agency, Baku, in Russian 1515 gmt 6 Mar 01
BBC Summary of World Broadcasts
March 08, 2001, Thursday

Armenian diplomat says war unlikely as long as
Aliyev is Azeri president

Text of report by Azerbaijani TV station ANS on 7 March

[Correspondent] Armenia is convinced that the presidents' failure to achieve
any concrete results in the Paris talks will not lead to a resumption of
hostilities in Karabakh, Yuriy Chanchuryan, political adviser to the
Armenian ambassador to Russia, has said.

[Chanchuryan by telephone, speaking in Russian with Azerbaijani voice-over]
As long as Heydar Aliyev is president of Azerbaijan, the likelihood of war
in Karabakh is minimal. First, he is a wise politician and understands that
a resumption of hostilities would not lead to good results. Second, Heydar
Aliyev is preparing for a compromise to settle the Karabakh problem. If it
was not so, he would not have met [Armenian President] Robert Kocharyan.

[Correspondent] Yuriy Chanchuryan said that official Yerevan preferred the
common state proposal for settling the Karabakh conflict. But he regrets
that Azerbaijan rejected this proposal.

[Chanchuryan] We have been saying for five years that we are ready for
compromises. I should note that Nagornyy Karabakh's status should be
determined clearly and that it should not be an autonomy.

[Correspondent] In Chanchuryan's opinion, Karabakh should be given a status
higher than autonomy. In the 5 March edition of the Russian newspaper
Kommersant, the Armenian military came out with new threats against
Azerbaijan. An article entitled "Azerbaijan is preparing for general
mobilization" says that Yerevan believes that if Azerbaijan is aspiring to
war, it should not be hindered. The Armenian military, who recalled that
seven districts of Azerbaijan were under Armenia's control, warned that if
the hostilities resumed, the territory controlled by the Armenian armed
forces could expand to seven more districts. According to this opinion, the
world community will support and approve of Armenia's actions in such a
case. Etibar Mammadov, ANS.

Source: ANS TV, Baku, in Azeri 1700 gmt 07 Mar 01
BBC Monitoring Service - United Kingdom; Mar 8, 2001

"Belligerent" statements from Azerbaijan,
Armenia after Paris talks

Text of report by Russian newspaper Kommersant on 7 March

The presidents of Azerbaijan [Heydar Aliyev] and Armenia [Robert Kocharyan]
returned home yesterday [6 March] after their talks in Paris. However,
contrary to expectations the details of the accords that were reached are
still not known. Meanwhile belligerent statements are already being heard
from [Azeri capital] Baku and [Armenian capital] Yerevan.

French sources regard the talks between Presidents Heydar Aliyev and Robert
Kocharyan as a great success for the French president. President Jacques
Chirac himself has voiced the hope that a just solution to the conflict that
suits both sides will be found by the end of the year. Such statements have
been heard repeatedly over the past few years but every new round of talks
has effectively started from scratch.

Statements by Armenian and Azerbaijani officials who returned home from
Paris yesterday indicate that the same thing has happened this time.
Admittedly, vague hints are being heard from Baku and Yerevan that "the
potential does exist for the most speedy resolution of the conflict as early
as this year" but no details are being divulged.

However, there was obviously no rapprochement in the sides' positions. Baku
is still insisting on the restoration of its sovereignty over the territory
of Nagornyy Karabakh and is urging Yerevan to adopt a "constructive stance".
Yerevan and Nagornyy Karabakh leaders are still unwilling to do so.

An Azerbaijani opposition forum took place in Baku on 6 March at which an
alternative plan for the settlement of the conflict was proposed. The
authors of the programme are former Foreign Minister Tofiq Zulfuqarov and
the former aide to President Heydar Aliyev, Eldar Namazov. Both men resigned
in November 1999 in protest at the "authorities' capitulatory policy during
the talks with the Armenian side". The programme allows for the provision of
autonomy for the Karabakh Armenians within Azerbaijan, but only if Armenia
recognizes Karabakh as an integral part of Azerbaijan.

Should the Armenian side be slow with its response the plan presupposes the
immediate commencement of a so-called humanitarian operation. During this
operation the Azerbaijani army is to embark on liberating occupied
territories outside Nagornoyy Karabakh. "But in this case Azerbaijan's
stance at the talks will be even tougher and we must not agree to anything
under any circumstances apart from cultural autonomy for the Armenians with
the establishment of an Azerbaijani administration in Karabakh," the plan's
authors say.

However, there seems to be no lack of determined plans in Yerevan either.
Armenian National Security Council Secretary Serzh Sarkisyan said yesterday
that his country was also prepared for another armed conflict. According to
him, the Armenian army's level of combat readiness is higher now than at any
time in the past six years.

Source: Kommersant, Moscow, in Russian 7 Mar 01
BBC Monitoring Service - United Kingdom; Mar 8, 2001

Senior Azeri officers comment on military
solution for Karabakh problem

Text of report by Azerbaijani news agency Bilik Dunyasi

Baku, 6 March: Is it possible to resolve the Karabakh problem
militarily? Yes, it is possible. A good number of former militarymen
believe that military action is the only option for the solution of the
Karabakh problem.

At a meeting of the security council under the president, Defence Minister
Col-Gen Safar Abiyev said that the troops are ready to carry out any
military tasks at any time. "I am convinced that if the president gives an
order to start military action, our troops will implement it commendably",
he said.

Asked about readiness of our army to resolve the conflict militarily, the
former minister, retired Maj-Gen Dadas Rzayev, said that the Azerbaijani
army had reached a high level of readiness and should the supreme
commander give an order, the army can embark on a full-scale attack and
will liberate the occupied land in a short period of time. "As a general,
I am aware of our army's level of readiness and its fighting
efficiency. The army is ready to implement any tasks that will be given to
it and will start the war with the order of its commander [President
Aliyev]," Rzayev said.

Former defence Minister Tacaddin Mehdiyev gave the following comments: "I
always said that the conflict can be resolved only by military means and I
have the same opinion now. Some people say that the war can be won within
15 days or two months. Such statements are groundless. War has its own
rules and a militaryman would not make such statements. At least six
months of serious preparations are needed so that the army can
win. However, things that could have been done during the last seven years
[since the cease-fire agreement] have not been done."

Former commander of the Lacin regiment, Arif Pasayev: "Serious
preparations are needed in order to end the war within a short period of
time and with minimum losses. It's time to talk about real
patriotism. Concrete work must be done to introduce wartime standards and
to end corruption in the army. Strength of a army is the power of a nation
and a state. States, governments and commanders can be defeated but
soldiers will always be fighters and cannot be losers."

The former deputy defence minister, chairman of the union of retired
officers, retired Col Isa Sadixov: "Sooner or later, we as military men
will resolve the Karabakh problem. War is politics pursued by military
means. We cannot see the problem being resolved peacefully, our
politicians reached a deadlock. I cannot say whether the army is ready or
not as I have left the army a long time ago but war is not restricted to
the army alone. I am convinced that if the people rise, we will win and
liberate our lands."

Source: Bilik Dunyasi, Baku, in Russian 1030 gmt 6 Mar 01
BBC Summary of World Broadcasts
March 08, 2001, Thursday

PARIS MEETING DID NOT GIVE ANY PROFIT
By Mustafa HAJIBEYLI
Next stage of peaceful negotiations on the regulation of Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict has finished. There was held next meeting between the Azeri president Heidar Aliev and Armenian president Robert Kocharian in Paris at the first week of March. But this meeting which was held with the moderation of the French president Jacques Chirac did not also give any profit at the context of the regulation of the Upper Karabakh conflict. Expressing his strong hope for these negotiations before the visit Heidar Aliev gave very pessimistic statement after returning from Paris. And said that there was not get any agreement during the talks.
It is notable that the bilateral and multilateral negotiation process at a level of the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia was started since 1994. Though there have been held tens of such meetings until now, concrete directions of these negotiations were kept confidential from the community up today, but special peculiarity of the last meeting in Paris is that on that eve there have been first time published the suggestions of the OSCE Minsk Group on the regulation of the conflict at the press. And the ways of settlement of the Karabakh problem presented to the public discussions, and it created conditions for putting forward more competent opinions about the perspectives of peaceful negotiations, in general.
Do the peaceful negotiations have any perspective at the current situation? While searching answer to this question it should be noted that Russia, which does not want to lose its positions in the region, is not interested in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. In observers' opinions, just foreign factor influences more on the complication of the settlement of Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.
On the other hand, the Armenian side speaks from a winner position at the mentioned negotiations. Armenia does not stop its hazardous activity to establish new-second Armenian State in the territories of Azerbaijan occupied by them. And agrees to free only a small part of the occupied territories for realizing this activity. And the last discussions showed that the Azerbaijani community could not agree with occupation of its territories. Even the fact of promising high status of autonomy to the Karabakh Armenians by Heidar Aliev is not faced simple at the Azerbaijani society.
It is known that leading opposition parties in Azerbaijan do not accept legitimacy of the current authorities. Even if Aliev signs a peaceful agreement that does not correspond to the national interests of Azerbaijan with any pressures, undoubtedly, that agreement will not be accepted in Azerbaijan. There is little hope for the peaceful regulation of the conflict in Azerbaijan, yet. Recently, there are often sounded opinions about releasing Karabakh from occupants only by military way. But Aliev's last statements showed that Azerbaijani authorities do not intend to begin military operations. In those statements especially seen that Aliev is concerned on government change in Azerbaijan in case if the military operations begin. All of these inform on non-perspectiveness of the peaceful negotiations and that the conflict will not still be settled in recent future.

AZERI DEFENSE MINISTER SAFAR ABIYEV: "AZERBAIJANI ARMY IS ABLE TO FREE OUR LANDS"
In the opinion of Azeri defense minister Safer Abiyev, Armenian soldiers are calling negative opinions about the Azerbaijani Armed Forces for justifying their army's weakness.
The Azeri defense minister said that he thinks natural the statement of the Armenian defense minister Serge Sarkisyan concerning the fighting ability of the Azerbaijani Army. Let's remember that Sarkisyan doubted the possibilities of the Azeri army stating that "If the Azerbaijani army was able to settle the Upper Karabakh problem by military way, they would do it long ago".
In his interview with the journalists Abiyev said that it is needed to expect different opinions from enemy. In his words, Sarkisyan gave such statement for justifying his army. "I once again stress that Azerbaijani Army is able to free our occupied lands", added the Azeri defense minister. While answering to the question, "How you estimate the military preparation of the Armenian army?" Abiyev did not support stating official opinion at the media about the possibilities of the opposite party. He said that it would be more expedient such estimation is done by the media itself.
<Ilhama Gasimly; Newspaper "525-ci Gazet">
AZERBAIJAN BULLETIN No: 10 (264), March 08 2001
http://www.andf-az.org/

Armenia Says Karabakh Talks in Right Direction
ATHENS, Mar 8, 2001 -- (Reuters) Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanian
said on Thursday efforts to resolve a 13-year-old conflict with neighbor
Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh province were progressing.

"The overall trend is in the right direction," Oskanian told reporters
outside a trilateral meeting with Greece and Iran in Athens.

His remarks contrasted sharply with those of the Azeri president, who on
Tuesday said no solution was in sight.

Armenia and Azerbaijan fought over the latter's largely ethnic Armenian
Karabakh province from 1988 until a fragile ceasefire six years later.

"We've not exhausted all our means," Oskanian said of the peace talks on
the disputed region, sponsored by the Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe.

Azerbaijan's President Haydar Aliyev, returning from the latest round of
talks in Paris on Tuesday, said no progress had been achieved.

Azerbaijan has rejected three proposals and said it wants to see new ones.
Copyright Reuters

IMPASSE AT SUMMIT IN PARIS.
Presidents Haidar Aliev and Robert Kocharian held direct
talks on March 4-5 in Paris on possible solutions to the Armenia
-Azerbaijan conflict. France hosted the meeting in the capacity of
co-chairman--along with the United States and Russia--of the mediating
group of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. The Paris
talks included unmediated sessions among Aliev and Kocharian, bilateral
meetings between each of them and French President Jacques Chirac, and a
concluding trilateral session which sought to produce an impression of
incremental progress.
Chirac in his final assessment expressed "strong hope" that a political
settlement of the conflict would be attained within the current year. But
Chirac's hope is almost certainly more pious than strong, considering this
summit's outcome. The three presidents were unable bridge the
Armenian-Azerbaijani differences over the conceptual basis of a political
solution. Those differences center on two sets of issues, on which Aliev
and Kocharian reaffirmed opposite views in the runup to the Paris meeting,
during it and in its immediate wake.
The first set of issues centers on a conceptual clash between the
principle of national self-determination and that of the territorial
integrity of states and inviolability of their recognized borders. Yerevan
and Baku each propose to reconcile those principles in ways unacceptable to
the other side. The Armenian side insists on three basic points: 1) a
political status for Karabakh that would leave it within Azerbaijan in a
purely formal sense, while ruling out Karabakh's subordination to Baku; 2)
"no enclavization"--that is, establishment of a permanent territorial link
between Karabakh and Armenia through the Lachin corridor; 3) international
security guarantees to the people of Karabakh, which guarantees would
include a right of Armenia to intervene militarily if necessary in defense
of Karabakh. The Azerbaijani side for its part insists on exercising not
merely formal sovereignty, but also a degree of control over Karabakh by
granting it "the highest level of autonomy within Azerbaijan." The
differing views on political status could prove bridgeable if the Armenian
side would stop insisting that Karabakh must be entitled to having its own
armed forces.
The second set of issues focuses on the "package" versus the
"step-by-step" approach to negotiations and an eventual settlement. This
dispute appears procedural, but in reality it involves a substantial
territorial stake and may hold the key to a political resolution of the
conflict. No genuine progress is attainable as long as the parties and the
mediators fail to make a clear-cut distinction between the overwhelmingly
Armenian-populated Karabakh and the purely Muslim, overwhelmingly Azeri six
districts occupied by Armenian forces beyond Karabakh, deep inside
Azerbaijan proper, from which the entire population of some 700,000 Azeris
has been ethnically cleansed.
The Armenian-advocated "package" approach would maintain that occupation
and preclude the return of refugees until such time as the political status
of Karabakh is determined. That status and the eventual return of the other
six districts to Azerbaijan would be discussed in parallel or as a package
solution. This is designed to maximize the pressure on Baku to yield on the
Karabakh status issue in order to regain the Azeri-populated districts and
repatriate the refugees. The Azerbaijani-advocated step-by-step approach
would involve the evacuation of Armenian-Karabakh forces from those
districts and the return of the Azeri refugees as a first stage, to be
followed by the determination of Karabakh's political status.
Armenia's former president (1991-98) Levon Ter-Petrosian accepted the
step-by-step approach in 1997 and was, as a result, overthrown the
following year by hardliners who included the current president Kocharian.
After another year, Kocharian adopted the thinking that had motivated
Ter-Petrosian to accept the stage-by-stage approach. The next logical step
for Kocharian would have been to endorse that approach himself. Kocharian
realized as had Ter-Petrosian that holding on to those occupied territories
would maximize Armenia's military and political dependence on Russia,
deepen Armenia's poverty through onerous military expenditures, accentuate
the country's isolation in the region except from Iran, and preclude a
rapprochement with Turkey--the economic powerhouse which may hold the key
to Armenia's development.
Kocharian came close to that view during the period that coincided with
the struggle for power in Yerevan in late 1999-early 2000. He articulated
that view publicly during that period, though stopping short of endorsing
the step-by-step approach that Ter-Petrosian had embraced proceeding from
those same premises. Armenian hardliners for their part reminded Kocharian
publicly of Ter-Petrosian's fate. During the second half of last year,
Kocharian changed his views again. He now contends overoptimistically that
Armenia's economic prospects have brightened and are not linked to
reconciliation with Azerbaijan and Turkey.
As a corollary, Yerevan insists on Armenian retention of the occupied
Azeri territories beyond Karabakh until the latter's status is determined.
That determination, however, may take a very long time and can be delayed
almost indefinitely by the Russian-supported  Armenia from a position of
strength. Meanwhile, the  impasse is fueling nationalist opposition in
Azerbaijan to Aliev's search for a peaceful political solution to the
conflict.
(Noyan-Tapan, Snark, Armenpress, Turan, ANS, Agence France Press,
Le Monde, March 4, 5, 6).
*** Conceptual hurdles to Armenia-Azerbaijan settlement.
Vladimir Socor
Socor@[withheld]

Azeri President Pessimistic After Karabakh Talks
BAKU, Mar 7, 2001 -- (Reuters) Azerbaijan's President Haydar Aliyev
returned from peace talks in Paris on Tuesday saying no progress had been
made toward resolving a 13-year-old conflict with neighbor Armenia and no
solution was in sight.

"There were no concrete results and I do not believe that the Minsk group
of the OSCE is preparing new recommendations for us after the Paris
meeting," Aliyev told reporters at the airport on his arrival in the Azeri
capital Baku.

It was his second meeting this year in Paris with Armenian President
Robert Kocharyan.

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe is sponsoring
peace efforts over disputed Nagorno-Karabakh province. The talks are led
by a group chaired by Russia, the United States and France, which first
met in the Belarussian capital Minsk.

Azerbaijan has rejected three proposals already offered by the group, and
says it wants to see new ones.

Aliyev said Azerbaijan "had no choice" but to continue the Minsk group
talks.

He added that Azerbaijan was at a disadvantage in talks because Armenian
troops continue to occupy Karabakh and areas surrounding it. French
President Jacques Chirac described the atmosphere at the talks as friendly
and expressed hope that a solution to the conflict could be found by the
end of the year. He offered no further details.

Armenia and Azerbaijan fought over Azerbaijan's largely ethnic Armenian
Karabakh province from 1988 until a shaky ceasefire in 1994. Azerbaijan's
humiliating defeat in the war has been the defining event in the country's
politics.

About 35,000 people died in the war and 800,000 Azeris were driven from
their homes.

(C)2001 Copyright Reuters Limited.

Armenia to blame for "fruitless" talks on
Nagorno-Karabakh: Aliyev

MOSCOW, March 7
Azerbaijan's President Heydar Aliyev blamed Armenia's unyielding stance
for the failure of the talks on the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh,
the ITAR-TASS news agency reported Tuesday.

The talks, which broke up in Paris on Monday, were "fruitless", even
though the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh's status could be resolved if Armenia
agreed to a compromise, Aliyev said upon his return from Paris.

Armenia would not settle for anything less than independence for the
embattled region, Aliyev charged.

"We have only international law and UN Security Council resolutions on our
side, which the Armenian side ignores, while Armenia has the occupied
Azeri territories in its hands," Aliyev lamented.

Azerbaijan and Armenia, former Soviet republics, fought a three-year war
over the enclave, a region largely populated by Armenians which proclaimed
its independence from Azerbaijan in 1991 with Yerevan's backing.

Some 30,000 people were killed and a million forced to flee their homes
before a ceasefire was signed in 1994, but a final settlement has been
elusive.

The talks between Aliyev and his Armenian counterpart Robert Kocharyan
were chaired by France, who is sponsor, along with Russia and the United
States, of the Minsk group set up at the request of the Organisation for
Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to find a solution to the
dispute.

However, so far all of the Minsk group's attempts to settle the crisis
failed, and Aliyev said he had no hope that the OSCE could offer any new
initiatives on the issue.

cal/bm
Agence France Presse
March 7, 2001, Wednesday 3:06 AM, Eastern Time

Chirac Hopeful After Talks on Nagorno-Karabakh Dispute
PARIS, Mar 6, 2001 -- (Agence France Presse) French President Jacques
Chirac expressed optimism that the dispute over the Nagorno-Karabakh
enclave could be settled this year, following talks with his Armenian and
Azerbaijani counterparts on Monday.

"I urge and strongly hope that this year will not end without a settlement
being found which is -- and this is essential -- acceptable to Azerbaijan
and Armenia," Chirac told reporters.

Armenian President Robert Kocharian and his Azerbaijani counterpart Heydar
Aliyev were in Paris for talks with Chirac on the future of the disputed
region.

On Monday, Chirac met both leaders separately before all three came
together for a three-hour summit on the issue and a working
lunch. Kocharian and Aliyev met late Sunday after their arrival in Paris.

France is the joint president, along with Russia and the United States, of
the Minsk group set up at the request of the Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe to find a solution to the dispute.

Azerbaijan and Armenia, former Soviet republics, fought a three-year war
over the enclave, a region largely populated by Armenians which proclaimed
its independence from Azerbaijan in 1991 with Yerevan's backing.

A ceasefire was signed in 1994, but a final settlement has been elusive.

Chirac was upbeat, however, saying: "There is on both sides a real will to
find a solution. And for that, I am overjoyed."
((c) 2001 Agence France Presse)

Azeri opposition calls for total liberation of Lacin District
   Text of report by Azerbaijani news agency Turan

   Baku, 6 March: "Given the strategic importance of Lacin [Lachin]
District and the fact that its population does not accept the idea of a
territorial swap, and also with the aim of preventing new acts of
aggression on the part of Armenia, the territory of Lacin District should
be totally liberated," it says in a joint statement issued by the leaders
of the Lacin public association and district organizations of the Party
for National Independence of Azerbaijan, Musavat, the People's Front of
Azerbaijan Party (both wings) and the Compatriot Party.
   The authors of the document believe it is only possible to determine
the political status of Nagornyy Karabakh after the security of the
people living in Lacin District is guaranteed. The statement
categorically rejects the idea of providing the Armenians with a corridor
for links with Armenia via the territory of Lacin District.
   The statement notes that in accordance with Article 51 of the UN
Charter, Azerbaijan, as a country which was subjected to aggression,
should make use of its right to liberate its occupied territories by
military means.
Turan in Russian 1137 GMT 6 Mar 01

ARMENIAN, AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENTS WRAP UP PARIS TALKS
Following a one-on-one meeting in Paris late on 4 March, Robert Kocharian
and Heidar Aliev met with French President Jacques Chirac on 5 March to
discuss approaches to resolving the Karabakh conflict. Chirac told
journalists at a joint press conference after those talks that they had
proceeded "in a warm and friendly atmosphere," but that no details could
be divulged, the Paris correspondent of RFE/RL's Armenian Service
reported. Chirac expressed satisfaction that the two presidents
demonstrated willingness to find a peaceful solution to the conflict "that
is equitable and in conformity with each party's interests," according to
AP. He said "we discussed...problems and difficulties in the hope that the
Minsk Group could, at a given time, make a proposal that would be
acceptable to both parties." A Paris-based representative of the
unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic told the independent Azerbaijan
News Service that "some headway" had been made during the talks, and that
they had focussed on possible representation of the unrecognized enclave
during future negotiations, according to Groong. Baku has hitherto
objected to Karabakh participation in the ongoing peace talks. LF

RFE/RL] Transcaucasia Newsline, March 6, 2001

Armenian defence minister says army ready
if Azerbaijan resorts to  war

  Text of report by Armenian news agency Snark

   Yerevan, 6 March: Armenia's armed forces are combat ready and capable
of giving a fitting response to Azerbaijani attempts to resolve the
Nagornyy Karabakh problem by military means, Armenian Defence Minister
Serzh Sarkisyan said in an interview with the Yerevan newspaper Golos
Armenii (6 March 2001), commenting on bellicose speeches in the
Azerbaijani parliament and Baku's aspiration to resolve the Nagornyy
Karabakh problem by force.
   If the Azerbaijani army was in a condition to resolve the Nagornyy
Karabakh problem by military means, it would have done so long ago.
Today, he noted, the Armenian army is much better trained than it was in
1992-93. The correlation of Armenian and Azerbaijani forces today is
nothing like it was at that period. According to Sarkisyan, during the
collapse of the Soviet Union and formation of the national armed forces,
Azerbaijan received from Russia or took by force 15 times more ammunition
and three times more weapons than the Armenian side. For example, at the
start of intensive military actions between Nagornyy Karabakh and
Azerbaijan, from 12 June 1992, Azerbaijan had 450 tanks, while Karabakh
had only eight. But over a period of time, this correlation of forces
equalized, the minister said.
   The Armenian leadership, from the commander-in-chief down to the last
officer, has never ruled out events developing militarily and took this
into account in training its forces, Sarkisyan said.
   For the most part, people who are not in power, and who will not then
bear responsibility for a war, are talking about the possibility of
resolving the Nagornyy Karabakh problem militarily. As the Armenian
minister noted, such a war could end in failure for the Azerbaijani side.
If during the military actions in 1993-1994, the Armenian side, in line
with its resources, did not advance further than the positions it has
occupied today, then should the war resume, there can be no limits this
time, Serzh Sarkisyan said.
   "We are familiar with the people who are flexing their muscles in
Azerbaijan today. They never distinguished themselves by their skill on
the battlefield, but are now calling for military actions... [ellipses as
given] If they choose this path, we shall have no choice," the Armenian
defence minister stressed.
(Yerevan) Snark in Russian 1040 GMT 6 Mar 01

Karabakh authorities said encouraging people
to resettle border areas

#########################################################################
HL NOTE: The following news articles ignore such basic facts that:

1) Karabakh region of Azerbaijan was, is, and will remain to be a
   legitimate part of the Azerbaijan Republic;

2) Karabakh, and seven other regions are illegally occupied by
   the Republic of Armenia, the aggressor;

3) That the puppet leaders and regime(s) of some self-proclaimed "NKR"
   entity are recognized by no state and lack any legitimacy whatsoever.

Further, the Stalin imposed name of Stepanakert in 1923, is invalid and
the historic name of the city, Khankandi, has been restored since
Azerbaijan's re-establishment of independence.
#########################################################################

  Text of report by Armenian news agency Snark

   Stepanakert [Xankandi], 7 March: The process of resettling areas in
the Nagornyy Karabakh Republic, whose residents were deported
during the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, is continuing.
   According to the NKR Ministry of Social Security, 216 families arrived
in the republic in search of permanent residence between January 2000 and
March 2001. According to the Armenian government's migration and refugees
department, another 500 families, mainly of Karabakh origin, are ready to
move permanently to Nagornyy Karabakh.
   Some 150 houses were built for settlers last year. House construction
for this category of the population is continuing this year. The families
that have settled in the border zone or in sparsely populated areas of
Nagornyy Karabakh enjoy wider privileges. Apart from the allocation of
accommodation, the state is providing them with various kinds of social
and domestic aid. In 2001, the NKR government allocated 725m drams [1.3m
dollars] to solve issues related to the settlers.
(Yerevan) Snark
in Russian
1100 GMT 7 Mar 01

Opposition slams OSCE over Karabakh

Source: ANS TV, Baku, in Azeri 1100 gmt 2 Mar 01
[Presenter] The OSCE chairman-in-office, Mircea Geoana, today had to
listen to quite sharp statements at a meeting with the Azerbaijani
opposition and non-governmental organizations.

Representatives of opposition parties said that no-one could be allowed to
accept any compromises or treaties which bring Azerbaijan's territorial
integrity and sovereignty into question. The cochairman of the Azerbaijani
Social and Democratic Party, Araz Alizada, said that Azerbaijan was in
favour of peace, but the reality was leading the country to war.

The chairman of the Communist Party of Azerbaijan, Ramiz Ahmadov, assessed
all the three plans of the OSCE as an intention to divide Azerbaijan into
two parts, which was "pushing Azerbaijan into war".

The chairman of the People's Front of Azerbaijan Party, Ali Kerimov, said
that the OSCE was equalizing the rights of Azerbaijan, a victim of
Armenia's aggression, and the aggressor, Armenia. This is an injustice by
the OSCE. Mircea Geoana, in turn, voiced his concern at the fact that
during his visit to Azerbaijan he noted a growing mood for war among
Azerbaijani society.

[Geoana] Let me tell you very openly that a military option is not
acceptable to the international community. This option cannot be accepted
by Azerbaijan's future generations either. We understand that it is very
difficult to switch from a military philosophy to a peace philosophy. I
should note that today the Azerbaijani opposition expressed its views on
the OSCE Minsk Group's previous three proposals. Therefore, I call on you
to be patient. I can assure you that the proposals put forward in the near
future will be different from the previous ones and will be more
promising.

[Presenter] Opposition members taking part in the meeting believe that the
current visit by the OSCE to the country is also aimed at putting on a
show. The opposition agreed to the idea that the OSCE's eight-year
activity was unfair and failed to achieve any results, saying that from
now on the Azerbaijani authorities should not make any concessions which
bring the country's territorial integrity and sovereignty into question.

[Kerimov] I think the OSCE chairman's visit has once again showed those
who might think that Azerbaijan could be ready for defeat or that
Azerbaijan does not want confrontation so it will accept any kind of
peace, that, on the contrary, even though Azeris have been subjected to
many hardships, they will not accept a shameful peace.

[Ilyas Ismayilov, Justice Party leader] The OSCE will not resolve the
Nagornyy Karabakh problem because its decisions are not of a legal or
judicial nature but only political. Azerbaijan's problem should be
resolved only in accordance with the UN resolutions. We have been deceived
for so many years and we are still hopeful. This is our problem and we
must resolve it. They want us to make concessions. What kind of
concessions can we make? Azerbaijan cannot make any
compromises. Azerbaijan cannot give any plot of land to the
Armenians. There can be no compromise on the Lacin [Lachin] corridor.

Text of report by Azerbaijani TV station ANS on 2 March
BBC Summary of World Broadcasts
March 05, 2001, Monday

President's son quoted on "military" option, slams West
Text of report in English by Russian news agency Interfax

Baku, 3 March: The first vice-president of the State Oil Company of the
Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR) and the Azerbaijani president's son, Ilham
Aliyev, has said he does not rule out that the Armenian-Azerbaijani
conflict over Nagornyy Karabakh could be resolved by military means.

If need be, "Azerbaijan must be prepared for resolving the problem by
military means", Aliyev said in an interview with the media on Saturday.

Certain Western circles are exerting pressure on Baku so as "to thrust a
humiliating peace on Azerbaijan", he said. "In doing so, those certain
Western circles are trying to destabilize the situation in Azerbaijan and
bring to power weak and insignificant forces obedient to the West," he
said.
Source: Interfax news agency, Moscow, in English 1713 gmt 3 Mar 01

BBC Summaries: opposition's reaction to Karabakh talks

Police break up demo, arrest more than 60

Source: Bilik Dunyasi, Baku, in Russian 1545 gmt 2 Mar 01

Text of report by Azerbaijani news agency Bilik Dunyasi

Baku, 2 March: The Azerbaijani Liberal Party [ALP] and the Democratic
Party of Azerbaijan [DPA] have staged a picket to protest against possible
concessions which could run counter to Azerbaijan's interests in
negotiations between [Azerbaijani and Armenian Presidents] Heydar Aliyev
and Robert Kocharyan. The picket was staged this afternoon outside the
buildings of the Milli Maclis [parliament], the Constitutional Court, the
French, US and Russian embassies and the Baku office of the UN. The police
dispersed the pickets. Several clashes took place. About sixty people,
including the deputy chairman of the executive committee of the Liberal
Party, Avaz Temirxan, and the secretary of the Democratic Party, Hasrat
Rustamov, were detained. Twelve more people, including the secretary of
the youth organization of the Democratic Party, Ceyhun Ismayilov, were
detained after submitting the pickets' resolution to a UN representative.

In addition, the ALP and DPA have issued a joint statement seriously
criticizing [Baku's] Sabayel district police department, whose officials
used force against the pickets. According to the authors of the statement,
the brutal dispersal of the pickets, which were organized in the defence
of Karabakh, proved that Heydar Aliyev's statements about the government's
efforts to liberate Nagornyy Karabakh were not sincere.

The ALP and DPA stated that they would not tolerate the loss of Karabakh,
and would continue their struggle to this effect regardless of the
repression by the present regime.

Presidential Commission Head Demands Return Of Nakhicehvan, Kars, Ardahan
The head of the Presidential Commission on Human Rights, Self-Determination
Union leader and Soviet-era dissident Paruir Hairikian, read out his party's
statement to a press conference in Yerevan today on the occasion of the 80th
anniversary of the signing between Turkey and Bolshevik Russia on March 16 1921
of the Treaty of Kars.

According to the "Kars" agreement, Russia agreed to place the Nakhichevan and
Nagorno-Karabakh regions under the control of Azerbaijan, and the Kars and
Ardahan regions under Turkish control. The statement issued by Hairikian's party
condemns the Russian Bolshevik authorities and Vladimir Lenin personally for
selling out Armenian territories to Turkey. The statement issued by Hairikian
accused the Communists in Russia of helping Turkey to complete the Genocide
against Armenians.

The statement calls on Armenian parties to launch a campaign demanding the
annulment of that treaty and the return of Nakhijevan, Kars and Ardahan under
the Armenian control. Hairikian told journalists in Yerevan that his party has
already started such a campaign and will hold its first rally on March 16.

According to Hairikian, the foreign policy of the previous Armenian leadership
under Levon Ter-Petrossian was against the interests of Armenia. He added that
the current leadership is not doing enough to address the issue of Nakhichevan,
Kars and Ardahan. Hairikian also said the Armenian parties should ask the
Armenia's ally Russia, which he characterized as "now a democratic country," to
annul the Treaty of Kars and to return Nakhichevan, Kars and Ardahan to Armenia.

(Karine Kalantarian, Harry Tamrazian)
RFE/RL Armenia Report - 03/09/2001

President Aliyev expecting new proposals
at Paris negotiations on Karabakh

Text of report by Azerbaijani TV station ANS on 3 March

[Presenter] Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev has left for Paris. He
will take part in Armenian-Azerbaijani talks in the French capital. At
Bina airport, Heydar Aliyev said he agreed with two of the OSCE proposals
to settle the conflict. We should recall that according to the first
package proposal, the issue of status is accepted in the same document as
the liberation of lands. In 1994, official Baku turned down that proposal
saying that principles of the Azerbaijani constitution had been
violated. According to the second phase-by-phase package, the lands are
liberated and refugees return home. Only after that, is the status of
Nagornyy Karabakh determined. Official Baku had earlier regarded this
proposals as acceptable, too.

[Correspondent over video of Aliyev at the airport] I am not going to the
negotiations with the Armenian president with any new proposal. I am
awaiting proposals from them, President Heydar Aliyev said. The president
said again that the aim of the negotiations was to reach a certain
agreement on a peaceful solution to the problem. Can the granting of the
highest degree of autonomy to Karabakh be discussed at the negotiations?

[Aliyev] It is there. Armenia should accept it. The second and third - it
was in the first and second proposals [as heard]. I agree with it. But
Armenia did not accept it.

[Correspondent] The president also said that although the opposition did
not accept any of the three OSCE proposals, it is not putting forward any
proposals either. It could also be felt from Heydar Aliyev's words that
the president was expecting a strong protest from the opposition to the
OSCE proposals.

[Aliyev] The OSCE chairman-in-office had come here. Why did those
scandalous people not come and have their say there? Why did party
leaders, who regard themselves as the greatest leaders, not come and have
their say?

[Correspondent] The president has a dual attitude towards the part of the
Azerbaijani people, who prefer war to peace with concessions.

[Aliyev] Yes, there are people who want war, but they do not truly want
war. They want to liberate the [occupied] lands. However, some of them
took advantage of the chaos, satisfied their personal interests during the
war [in 1988-94] and now they want a repeat of that period.

[Correspondent] Heydar Aliyev said nothing could be concluded through
wanting war. He pointed out that wanting war, implementing it and
achieving tasks are different things. The head of state recommended
showing the position of the intelligentsia, people who care more about the
country. The president returned to the Milli Maclis debate on Karabakh and
reiterated that he had still not received a fruitful proposal.

[Aliyev] Nothing has been offered. How should I assess it? I knew they
would not give anything.

[Correspondent] Thus, President Heydar Aliyev went on his Paris trip,
which is surrounded with enough questions and mystery.
Source: ANS TV, Baku, in Azeri 1700 gmt 3 Mar 01

Forum draws up principles for Karabakh solution

Text of report by Azerbaijani news agency Turan

Baku, 1 March: Today, a forum with the participation of over 70 political
parties and public organizations discussed the issues relating to the
settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict in the headquarters of
Party for National Independence of Azerbaijan.

Representatives of the opposition negatively assessed the
recently-published options of the OSCE Minsk Group for the settlement of
the Karabakh problem. The representatives said that the OSCE proposals
contradicted the UN Charter, the UN Security Council Resolutions 822, 853,
874 and 884, as well as the Azerbaijani Constitution.

Participants in the meeting adopted a final resolution which says that the
status of Nagornyy Karabakh must be determined only after the elimination
of the consequences of the aggression and the return of refugees to their
native places. The document also points to the inadmissibility of any
change in the unitary system of Azerbaijan.

The resolution condemns the discussion of the OSCE proposals in the Milli
Maclis [parliament] and adds that it contradicts the Azerbaijani
Constitution.

The authors of the document stressed the need for a speedy adoption of a
single stance in Azerbaijan about the settlement of the
Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. Besides, Baku must raise before the UN the
issue of Armenia aggression against Azerbaijan. It is also necessary to
strive for the return of Azerbaijanis deported from Armenia to their
native places and they should enjoy the same status as [Armenians] in
Nagornyy Karabakh.

The Azerbaijani authorities are must contact international courts with the
aim of bringing to book persons guilty of military crimes [committed] in
the course of the occupation of Azerbaijani territories.

In addition, the document points to the need to strengthen the defensive
capability of the country and adopt a military doctrine which would be
based on strategic partnership with Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey.
Source: Turan news agency, Baku, in Russian 0530 gmt 2 Mar 01
BBC Summary of World Broadcasts
March 05, 2001, Monday

BORDER INCIDENT CULPRIT ARRESTED
A Georgian border guard, Vakhtang Sirualidze, who killed an Azeri
national, Fuzuzli Husseinov outside the Sinig Korpu frontier point on the
Azeri-Georgian border on Monday, was arrested Friday.
The convict proved
to be a Georgian citizen of Armenian lineage,
a MP, a member of the
Azerbaijan-Georgian inter-parliamentary commission Zalimkhan Yagub told
AssA-Irada Friday.
According to him, Georgian President Shevardnadze has been deeply
concerned with the incident and fired all the personnel of the border
point for alleged involvement in bribery. The March 5 incident is also
believed to have been provoked by the fact that a native of Sadighli
village of Marneuli province of Georgia Fuzuli Husseinov was being
squeezed to pay bribe for stamp to be attached to his passport.
Mr. Yagub stressed that allocation of new passports to the Azeri
population in Georgia is retarding with every obstacle involved.

[AssA-Irada] News Digest, March 9-10, 2001

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