INDONESIA: New book claims chances of Islamic government are
growing
03/07/2002
19:46:00 | Asia Pacific Programs
A new book on politics in post-Suharto
Indonesia says the chances of an Islamic Government taking power
are stronger than ever. The book, "Reformasi" says
Indonesia's military and conservative elements could use Islam to
get a firmer hold on power.
Transcript:
O'ROURKE: Categorically, it's
the one form of government that Indonesian has not yet
experimented with. Indonesia's experienced Sukarno socialism,
Suharto's authoritarianism, now the democratic, secular
nationalism of Megawati and Wahid prior to her. But, an
Islamic-oriented system of government has not yet been tried. And
there's a great deal of disenchantment with current events, such
that I think the appeal of trying something new is growing greater
every day.
DOBELL: In the election of 1999, though, the majority of the votes
went tio secular parties. How then would Indonesia make such a
dramatic shift?
O'ROURKE: It's true the majority of the votes went to non-Islamic
parties. But yet when the MPR convened in October 1999 to elect a
president, the president elected was from the loose alliance of
Islamic oriented parties then known as the Central Axis. So
despite the results of the popular election, in effect it was
political Islam which won the presidential election that year.
DOBELL: In your book, you talk about the Indonesian military and
conservative forces moving against Megawati and using Islam and
the Islamic state as a way of taking power. Is that the way you
see it happening?
O'ROURKE: I think it's a distinct possibility actually. Recently,
the top posts in the military were occupied by two men who are
known to have a secular nationalist orientation. However, I think
the army's main priority is to defend its political and especially
its business interests. Many of those business interests are
illicit. So I think they are going to be willing to do whatever it
takes to defend their institutional interests.
DOBELL: Do you see this being carried out through the presidential
election? Will the idea of the Islamic state be one of the issues
at the presidential election?
O'ROURKE: I'm not sure about an Islamic state per se. But the
popular election in June 2004 as well as probably the presidential
election in October 2004, assuming the same system is used, will
indeed by polarised around the issue of religion. And that's a
worrisome prospect in my mind because in 1999 the election was a
tripartite affair between the Golkar incumbents, the secular
nationalists, PDI-Perjuangan, and the third group being various
diverse Islamic-oriented parties. In 2004, it's primarily going to
be the incumbent PDI-Perjuangan secular nationalist party versus
opposition parties, most of whom are Islamic oriented in some way
or another.
DOBELL: And how likely do you think it is that Indonesia is on the
path towards having some form of Islamic government?
O'ROURKE: I guess I'd give it about a 50-50 chance of there being
a government that takes power that is controlled predominantly by
a loose alliance of Islamic oriented parties. That Indonesia will
revert to a strict Islamic state based on a fundamentalist
interpretation of Islamic law. That I don't think is a likely
prospect. But a government controlled by Islamic parties, I think
that is a distinct possibility. And what that government would
look like, is very hard to say. I think we can safely say that
corruption would be relatively unchanged, investment would not be
helped. But beyond that it's hard to predict what would take place
in practice.
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03/07/2002
19:46:00 | Asia Pacific Programs
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