Pilot Demand Forecast Raising Safety Concerns

An industry forecast that nearly a million new airline pilots will be needed worldwide the next 20 years as airlines expand fleets has raised safety concerns that airlines will hire lower caliber pilots they struggle to fill slots.

Boeing, of the world's largest makers of commercial jetliners, forecasts 460,000 new pilots will be needed worldwide now and 2031 as global economies and airlines take deliveries of tens of thousands new commercial jetliners.

The forecast includes 69,000 new pilots in North America, mostly in the U.S. The greatest growth be in the Asia-Pacific region, where an 185,600 new pilots will be needed.

Likewise, Boeing predicts 601,000 new aircraft maintenance technicians will needed over the period, with the greatest demand — 243,500 technicians — the Asia-Pacific region. An estimated 92,500 new technicians will North America.

The rising global demand airline pilots has raised concern industry and government officials that will be a global and a domestic pilot shortage.

"In many regions of world, a pilot shortage is already here," the Boeing forecast said. "Asia Pacific in is experiencing delays and operational interruptions to pilot scheduling constraints."

That's particularly true in China and India, industry officials said. Airlines in Asia and the Middle East have holding pilot job fairs in the U.S. and thousands of pilots laid due to U.S. airline bankruptcies and mergers are now flying foreign carriers.

"We have airlines the world as they buy our airplanes and come us on the training side of the house, saying `We're struggling to (pilot) seats. Can you help us?' " said Carl Davis, Boeing's chief of pilot services. Davis presented his company's forecast Thursday a conference in Washington on pilot training by the Air Line Pilots Association, world's largest pilot union.

Fear of Domestic Shortage

U.S. industry and government officials are concerned that the rising global demand pilots, combined with an anticipated wave pilot retirements and tougher qualification standards new pilots that kick next year, will create a domestic shortage well.

"I'm concerned because it has safety implications," John Allen, the Federal Aviation Administration's director of flight services, told The Associated Press.

Allen said he wants to spur a discussion industry, labor unions and academia about a potential shortage will "really look at this and address , not to just sweep it under the . ... Is this a problem? And, if it is a problem, bad is it?"

He said he is fearful if there is a shortage, airlines will hire pilots are technically qualified but don't have the "right stuff."

"If the industry is stretched pretty ... that can result in someone getting the system that maybe isn't really the right person to a pilot. Not everybody supposed to be a pilot," Allen said.

Jean Medina, a spokeswoman Airlines for America, responding to Allen's comments, said: "Safety is always our priority and our airlines hire pilots that the rigorous standards set by the FAA." The International Air Transport Association didn't respond a request comment.

Lee Moak, president of the pilots union, said he doubts a pilot shortage be felt in the U.S. for about three five years. If U.S. airlines start hiring pilots large numbers, he said, pilots now flying for foreign carriers will likely home. There are currently about 90,000 airline pilots the U.S. and Canada.


Adapted and abridged from: CNBC, July 13, 2012.