Beat the sports books by using my proven betting strategy !
Step 1 - Choose a sport to wager on :
Step 2 - Choose a sportsbook :
Step 3 - Use a handicapping strategy :
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Betting on baseball is based on the "money line" system. If a team is a 150 favorite, you will have to bet $150 on that team to win $100. You should rely heavily on the starting pitcher's stats in games that you bet on. Check the pitchers "splits" on espn.com to see the pitcher's stats against the team that he will be playing. Ignore the splits that will tell you the pitcher's stats on a given day of the week or during afternoon and night games. Never bet on the favorite if the money line is 200 or above. For over/under bets, look for teams that are near the league lead in hitting and opponents that have poor pitching. I only place over bets because an under bet is very risky in baseball. What if that ace pitcher gets injured? Do not place an over bet if rain is expected in the forecast. |
Basketball betting uses the point spread system. In normal straight play, you will have to wager $11 to win back $10. You do not predict which team will win, but rather if the underdog is able to "beat the spread" by winning the game or coming within the spreads number of winning. If the spread is 5 points and you bet on the favorite, not only does the favorite have to win for you to collect money, but they have to win by more than 5 points. Use espn.com to find a teams own points/opponents points ratio. This ratio should be close to 1 for every team. For each .02 difference in ratio (points scored by one team divided by points scored against them) between the two teams, allow 2 points to the point spread. If you get a spread higher than the spread your sportsbook gives, bet on the favorite. If it is lower than the sportsbook spread, bet on the underdog. Also make sure to check if a team has any key injuries that might affect the point spread. |
Like basketball, football betting uses a point spread. If the underdog "beats the spread" by winning the game or coming within the spreads number of points, then all bettors that picked them win. My football formula is similar to my basketball formula, except I add in opponent's winning percentage on all games played after week 3. Once again use espn.com to find own points vs. opponents points for each team. After a few weeks the ratio of these two numbers should be close to 1. After week 3 take the points for/points against ratio and multiply it by the past opponents combined winning percentage. On average your total will be .500. Calculate this total for each team. Subtract the underdog's total from the favorite's total. Now divide by .04. This final number is the point spread I use. If your number is less than the spread given by your sportsbook or a negative number, go with the underdog. If it's higher than the actual spread, go with the favorite. |
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Hockey uses either a "puck line" or baseball-like "money line" style of betting. A puck line is like a point spread, except there is always a half point goal difference between the favorite and the underdog, and there is no 10% vigorish. For example, the line 11/2/2 means that you can take the underdog plus 1.5 goals, or the favorite minus 2 goals. Many people prefer betting on hockey because it is well-known that oddsmakers focus more on basketball during the winter, often making crucial mistakes when determining the line for hockey games. For hockey I would use the same system that I use for basketball, except for every .02 difference between the two teams I add .75 goals to the spread. If your spread is between the 2 lines (such as with the example above, with the spread at 1 1/2/2) I would avoid betting on that game. |
Like hockey, soccer betting comes in a few varieties. Use the point spread instead of the money line. It is much easier to handicap that way. For soccer betting I combine my football and hockey strategies. It's basically the same as the hockey strategy, except the goals for/goals against ratio should be multiplied by opponents combined winning percentages. For every .04 difference between the two teams I add .5 goals to the spread. If your spread is more than the actual point spread, go with the favorite, if it's less go with the underdog. When determining a goal total for a match, remember that rain and extreme heat will cause scores to be lower, while mild temperatures and fair weather allows much more action and goal scoring. |
No matter what sport you bet on, always make sure you know about a team's health before betting. Any key injuries that you don't take into consideration will hurt your chances. Use "total" or "over/under" bets when possible. Sportsbooks tend to use generic numbers for these totals that reflect public expectations, giving the sports handicapper like yourself a big advantage. Many of the best sports handicappers deal exclusively with totals, because they know it's where they can make the most money off the sportsbooks. Just look at the 2 teams past scoring totals and determine what the final score should be. It really is that easy, and it works most of the time. Use online sportsbooks like the ones listed above, many of them pay bonuses on your initial deposit. That means that for your first few bets you will have the edge over the sportsbook. After that you'll have to stick to my strategy to keep your edge. |
Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong
This book gives a great tutorial of sports betting, and it's win/loss charts are the best I've ever seen !
Insights into Sports Betting by Bob McCune
Bob's system is about 70% accurate, and this teaches you exactly how to use his system. I know many pro handicappers that use this book as their bible.
Beat the Sports Books: An Insider's Guide to Beating the NFL by Dan Gordon
Dan Gordon has never had a losing season betting on football games. He'll show you how he takes advantage of common mistakes made by the bookmakers. He also knows public betting patterns that create big opportunities for the professional bettor.