October, 1999
compiled by Daniel Skidmore-Hess and Ron Cox
Savannah Carpetbaggers
Strengths
The pitching talent keeps on coming for GM Hess, with perhaps the best yet to come in Kip Wells, who divided his season at high A ball and AA with impressive results, allowing only 49 hits in 77 innings of AA ball. The offensive talent was the product of the number 1 draft pick of 1999, 21 year-old firstbaseman Nick Johnson, whose 123 walks alongside 89 strikeouts at A ball must be some kind of freak misprint, except that he hit .345 with 33 doubles and 14 homers. Chad Hutchinson, 22, is a hardthrowing righthanded drafted from the college ranks and coming on strong at the end of the 1999 season, with 150 strikeouts in 141 innings, although the walk total remains high at 85. Outfielder Austin Kearns is a highly regarded 19 year-old whose 36 doubles at A ball suggest power potential down the road, while 3B Andrew Beinbrink made the transition from aluminum to wood bats look quite easy in his first exposure to the minors in the NY-Penn League, nailing 24 doubles, 11 homers and 39 walks in only 292 atbats. Catcher Matt LeCroy, although old for his league, had a solid year at high A ball with 20 doubles, 20 homers and 42 walks in just over 300 atbats. Former catcher turned thirdbaseman Jason Grabowski excelled in A ball with 31 doubles, 12 homers and an impressive 65 walks. Still at catcher, Jayson Werth continues to impress. Tools player Julio Ramirez continues to strikeout way too much, but also has put up some decent power numbers in AA and is young enough to have a future.
Weaknesses
Some of the prospects in this organization are a bit old for their league, but there is a nice mix of pitching, catching and infield prospects, although the outfield situation could use some help. The team has changed directions this year with some free agent signings, banking on the emergence of the young pitchers over the next couple of seasons. If the young pitchers falter, look for the organization to use the free agent draft to plug some holes and try to contend by 2001. By then, some of the young offensive talent, including Nick Johnson, should have big league jobs.
Grade: A-
Prospects:
Nick Johnson, 1B, A
Kip Wells, rhp, A-
Chad Hutchinson, B+
Jayson Werth, C, B+
Austin Kearns, OF, B
Andrew Beinbrink, 3B, B
Jason Grabowski, 3B, B
Matt LeCroy, C, B
Julio Ramirez, OF, B-
Hiram Bocachica, 2B, C+
Brian Roberts, SS, C+
George Lombard, OF, C
Brad Wilkerson, OF, C
Brandon Inge, C, C
Caracas Polar Bears
Since taking the helm and moving the franchise across the sea, GM Ron Young has embarked his crew on a long voyage of rebuilding through the farm system. Young ambitiously drafted the full ten rounds last year. So now his organization is deeply stocked with legitimate prospects by level and position. Only time will tell if Young has both the wisdom of Ulysses and the patience of Penelope to see this course through to the shoe.
Strengths
The greatest strength of this organization is its depth. Caracas has a B/B- prospect at every position and nearly every available roster slot is in use for purposes of player development. For now, all needs at the ML level are covered, although with a heavy reliance on utility types or aging vets. A few high round draft picks have already begun to contribute at the ML level. Most notably, Florida SS Alex Gonzalez put in a fine rookie season with bat and glove, although his low walk rate remains a concern. RHP Matt Clement established himself in a big league rotation and improved over the course of last season. Even Ft. Lauderdale's 1998 #1 pick overall, OF Mike Cameron showed significant signs of becoming the multi-talented contributor many have thought he would be. Venezuelan LHP Wil Rodriguez looks like the most exciting of Young's several pitching prospects, at age 20 he was dominant at high-A. Rodriguez throws gas with good command of his off speed stuff. It is strange that he's not getting more hype. A little further down the pipeline are RHPs Wes Anderson and Roy Oswalt who both throw heat as well. Rob Bell bounced back from his arm trouble to put in a good second half at AA, if healthy he could be in ML next year and making an impact by 2001. Don't overlook Corey Lee who regained his command at AA this year and made 4 good starts at AAA late in the year. 19 year old OF Jackson Melian showed steady improvement in plate command and offensive production at A+ this year and is a 5 tool guy who's showing signs of developing plate command (49 BB in 467 AB). Emil Brown put in a solid year at AAA, but is not outstanding enough in any area to be considered more than a good fourth OF prospect. SS Ramon Soler hit only .237 at A level but he's only 18 years old and shows very fine plate discipline along with speed (46 SB) and the scouts rave about his defense. 1B Kevin Witt had a productive campaign at AAA but is stuck behind Carlos Delgado in the Toronto depth chart.
Weaknesses
While the organization has depth, there is a lack of "A" grade prospect talent. The player who is the best candidate for that status is OF Alex Escobar 1999's #1 pick overall). Admittedly some of the younger players will likely move into "A" ranking as they advance. Some signs of trouble include the offensive stagnation of catching prospect Ramon Hernandez and the high strikeout totals of IFs Jared Sandberg and Jorge Nunez. Pitchers Cliff Politte, Junior Herndon, and Clayton Andrews all yielded over a hit/inning at AA. (but Herndon was young for the level).
Organization Grade = B+ (the whole is greater than the sum of the parts)
Prospects:
Alex Escobar OF ?
Wil Rodriguez, LHP, B+
Wes Anderson, RHP, B
Rob Bell, RHP, B
Ramon Soler, SS, B
Kevin Witt, 1B B
Jackson Melian, OF, B
Corey Lee, LHP, B-
Roy Oswalt, RHP, B-
Ramon Hernandez, C, B-
Jorge Nunez, 2B, B-
Jared Sandberg, 3B, B-
Clayton Andrews, LHP, C+
Junior Herndon, RHP, C+
Cliff Politte, RHP, C+
Emil Brown, OF, C+
Radhames Dykhoff, RHP, C-
Jonathan Johnson, RHP, D+
Matt Drews, RHP, D-
Chicago Cockroaches These bugs swarmed into contention early last season only to fade late. What is not clear about the swarm is if there in contention or rebuilding. This team has a lot of talent at the ML level (how can you not say that when they have McGwire?). But then again, rumor has it that they were trying to trade their Big Mac. The minor league organization is well-balanced but lacks impressive high-ceiling talent.
Strengths
GM Mike Isaacs picked up a solid pitching prospect in Adam Eaton, who ranks as the best in the organization. Eaton throws 93 mph with command of 3 pitches and made 3 good starts at AAA after a solid campaign at Reading in the Eastern League. He should join the Phillies rotation next year. Eaton would add to Roy Halladay and Freddy Garcia as products of the Roach farm's pitching development efforts. Chicago also boasts a trio of advanced minor league tools players in the OF. Padres prospects Mike Darr and Gary Matthews both played at AAA and are ready to advance to the big leagues, although neither hit over .300. Terence Long did hit for a high average, though questions remain about his lack of walks. One guy who does draw walks is 3B prospect Joe Lawrence (56 in 250 AB at AA), whose numbers were otherwise average. In addition to Ben Davis, Chicago also has Ramon Castro, who is a good defensive catcher and slated to start for Florida next year. Kevin Eberwein is a legitimate power prospect at 3B but K's too much and struggled to hit at AA. Pat Daneker is a former college pitcher who may arrive in the ML soon, he has command of four pitches and average velocity, although he struggled at AAA. IF-OF Chad Meyers hit .354 with no homers at AAA and projects as a ML utility player.
Weaknesses
Middle infield, especially shortstop, needs to be addressed. Former Georgia Tech SS Jay Hood was moved to second base and hit poorly at high A. 24 year old 2B man Edwin Diaz hit 311 at AAA but drew only 17 BB in 415 AB. After Eaton, the pitching falls off significantly, RHP Todd Noel has a live arm but has been hittable as he's advanced. Jason Lakman throws hard as well but lacks off speed stuff and his future may be in relief. None of the roach OF prospects hit more than 10 homers, and may have no more impact than Todd Dunwoody has had. A curious thing about this organization is the lack of any Braves prospects at all, which is odd considering the number of times that organization has been in our draft. The southeast is known as a good habitat for insects and cockroaches abound in great multitudes down here (often called "palmetto bugs" by politeness minded people). But not these roaches. There future seems to rest on the rebuilding efforts of the San Diego Padres hitters. Too many trips to the Southwest Mike?
Organization Grade = B-
Prospects:
Adam Eaton, RHP, B+
Mike Darr, OF, B
Chad Meyers, 2B, C+
Jason Lakman, RHP, C-
Joe Lawrence, 3B, B
Kevin Eberwein, 3B, C+
Todd Noel, RHP, C
Brad Ramsey, C, C-
Gary Matthews Jr., CF, B
Pat Daneker, RHP, C+
Edwin Diaz, 2B, C
Terence Long, OF, B
Ramon Castro, C, C+
Jay Hood, 2B, C
St. Louis Sprockets
They've lost their Cone heads, but remain the most entertaining franchise in the SJL. Despite the lack of on field success, GM Kip Welborn keeps the faithful happy with a variety of exquisite torture techniques. Unfortunately, some of these have been applied to his pitchers' troubled arms with unfortunate results. Rating this franchise may be a bit unfair given its distinctive approach. Rumor has it that the organization may go for a veteran oriented player acquisition strategy in upcoming drafts. This would at least have the virtue of going against the grain of the prospect intoxicated common herd. Not everyone worships the godlike Sickels.
Strengths
Welborn clearly has a liking and a savvy for slick fielding young shortstops. One of the successes of St. Louis player development was the rapid rise of Mike Caruso. Behind Caruso, there are two more legitimate prospects at short. The best is Twins prospect Luis Rivas, who continued his prodigious rise by reaching AA at age 19. Rivas is a slick fielder who has yet to hit for high average, but he did show some gap power potential this year (30 doubles, 7 triples, 7 homers in 527 AB). Jay Woolf also played at AA where he hit .272 and also demonstrated high competence with the glove. The most productive year in the farm system, however, belonged to first baseman Steve Cox, who hit .341 with 49 doubles and 25 homers at AAA. He deserves a chance to play everyday in the majors. A prospect who is clearly not ready is 3B Chris Haas who hit only .229 at AAA and struck out a lot, but at age 23 and with power and a decent glove, he's still got an upside. In the pitching department, Welborn must be pleased with the advance of Jason Schmidt and, somewhat surprisingly, Ron Villone. Manny Aybar hasn't yet become the pitcher many thought he would be, but he may yet arrive. Soft-tosser Nelson Figueroa may also provide much needed replenishment for the Sprocket pitching staff. Figueroa posted a 3.94 ERA at AAA to go along with a 106-41 k/bb ratio in 128 IP. Cancer survivor Eli Marrero's disappointing year should be considered in context, while prospect Chad Moeller posted mediocre numbers at AA. Moeller is playing in the fall league's however, due to an injury to a more advanced Minnesota catching prospect. John Roskos hit well at AAA but has no real defensive role. Tony Mounce is a LOOGY (left handed one out guy) who K'ed 80 in 68 IP at AA.
Weaknesses
Only two B grade prospects on the infield and no pitching or catching prospect above C status illustrates the organization's lack of minor league depth and prospects across the board. There is good young talent at short and to a lesser extent catcher, but otherwise their depth chart is living on just too fine an edge. A glaring weakness is the complete lack of OF prospects. Mark Kotsay has moved up to the majors, though without making an impact as yet. That leaves only AAA 25 year old Glenn Reeves. He drew 37 BB and K'ed 42 times in 236 ABs, which are good ratios that indicate nothing. He also hit .216 with 8 doubles, a triple, and 2 homers to go with 3 steals. It doesn't matter if he fields well. Reeves illustrates the limits of Sickelsism.
Organization Grade: C-
Prospects:
SS Luis Rivas B
1B Steve Cox B
SS Jay Woolf C+
3B Chris Haas C+
RHP Nelson Figueroa C
C Chad Moeller C
1B John Roskos C
LHP Tony Mounce C-
Util Jose Cepeda D+
OF Glenn Reeves D
Leones de Miami It has been hard for outsiders to decode the long term strategy of this franchise. Leones GM Carlos Barrera has been one of the most active and savvily opportunistic in trade talks and deals the past couple of years. After making a solid run at a pennant in his initial season and spending a lot of money on Venezuelan super hero Andres Galaragga, Barrera's lions slipped back this year. Andres is a Panther now and the king cats of south Florida seem to be in a rebuilding mode.
Strengths
Master of the late rounds of the draft?? Leones GM Carlos Barrera may have got the steal of last year's draft taking Vernon Wells long after more highly touted guys like Alex Escobar had been scooped. [editor's note: picking Wells in the middle of the second round doesn't constitute a late-round steal] Wells is a young and rapidly rising five tool guy who seems poised to make an ML impact in 2000. He leads a cohort of young leones OFers who are the pride of the pride, so to speak. In addition to Wells, count Valent, Valenzuela, and Wise as wall-bashing multi-talents whose letter grades are in distinct contrast to their alphabetical rankings. Valent has the most power of the latter three, while Valenzuela hit .323 in A ball and Wise stole 35 bases to go with his 11 homers. All show adequate command of the strike zone. They will soon be competing for spots with Berkman, Jose Guillen, and Cruz (who's been on the trade block) in the crowded and talented Miami OF. SS Felipe Lopez could emerge as yet another late steal in the draft, as he is very young for his league and has a good power, speed, and range combination demonstrated by his 27 2Bs, 14 HRs and 21 SBs to go with an impressive 61 Bbs, although he did strike out 157 times. CF Alex Sanchez has speed to burn, but lacks the power potential and plate command of the others. Another legit power prospect is 1B Carlos Pena who shows solid command of the strike zone as well. Cardinal SS Brent Butler is the only middle infield prospect, although with Miguel Tejada and Luis Castillo providing a youthful DP combo there is no pressing need in this area. College product RHP Jeff Austin heads up a short list of young arms in the minor league system. Austin pitched well at high A and was advanced to AA this year, although his ratios were not super-impressive (at A+: 3.77 ERA; 108/112 H/IP; 97-39 K-BB).
Weaknesses
Francisco Cordova has arrived at the top level as has 34 year old MLB rookie Masato Yoshii. But beyond the aforementioned Austin, there is not much more pitching help on the horizon. Joaquin Benoit was very hittable at high A, while it would be charitable to call Ryan Mills a prospect at this point (8.87 ERA in the FSL), although he was a highly touted college pitcher. Miami's veteran catching corps should be backed up by prospects, but Jose Salas hit only one homer at Rookie ball this year. Jeremy Cotten moved from third to first base and hit .200 with only one homer in A- (not all late round picks pan out for Carlos). This organization has great OF hitting prospects and will have a good infield for a long time to come, but the lack of high ceiling young pitching talent will need to be addressed to return them to contention in the near future.
Organization Rating = B
Prospects:
OF Vernon Wells A
SS Felipe Lopez B+
OF Eric Valent B
OF Mario Valenzuela B
OF DeWayne Wise B
1B Carlos Pena B
1B Rick Elder B
RHP Jeff Austin B-
SS Brent Butler B-
1B Todd Sears C+
OF Alex Sanchez C
RHP Joaquin Benoit C
LHP Ryan Mills C-
1B Jeremy Cotten D
C Jose Salas Inc.
Kansas City Whirlwind When Edgar Renteria is a utility infielder and Ivan Rodriguez is backed up by Jason Kendall as catcher and you have the choice of Thome, Jaha, or Tony Clark at 1B . . . is there any point in having a farm system? Yeah sure there is when you can also develop two A grade prospects for the left side of your infield. This tornado is no passing wind, but an offensive force that is yet to reach its prime. The only regulars over age 30 are Tim Salmon and Craig Biggio and the latter is about to lose his job to Edgardo Alfonzo. And if you think the pitching is weak, think again.
Strengths
One could almost argue that GM Nils Samuels has a hole to fill at 3B where Willie Greene has been a disappointment. But for now, KC could always move ARod over to third and let slick fielding Renteria play some short (or vice-versa). Very soon, Aramis Ramirez will take over the hot corner however. Rushed by the Pirates in 1998, Ramirez spent the season at AAA where he hit .328 with power and excellent plate command (73 BBs vs. 56Ks). Better yet, he's only 21 years old and ready to make an impact in 2000. Rafael Furcal is another young (19) high ceilinged prospect who moved from 2B to SS this year with ease while stealing 96 bases at A/A+. Michigan product LHP Mark Mulder looks like the real deal, posting a 4.06 ERA in the tough PCL in his first pro year. He looks to join Elarton, Cloude, Karsay, and Silva who are all now making strong contributions at the ML level. This might allow Nils to eliminate some of the mediocre arms that have typified his pitching staffs in the past. Hard throwing Grant Roberts pitched 131 IP at AA this year and looks to be back from his arm troubles (though at risk by virtue of being in the Mets organization). A testament to the quality of this organization's advance planning is the waiver wire pickup of OF Calvin Murray, who at age 27 had a banner AAA year and could well contribute next year.
Weaknesses
Pitching has never been the forte of this franchise, but lack of quality is more than compensated for by quantity. It will be interesting to see how Samuels turns over the pitching staff in the next year, his veteran hurlers are still for the most part young if underachieving. In the OF there is Griffey, then the rest. The prospects out there, Derrick Gibson and Juan Rivera, lack effective strike zone command. Watch to see if Samuels replicates his savvy pickup of Furcal last year, with a similar move to the OF this year. There is no catching prospect, maybe with a 162 game schedule one should be added?
Organization rating = B
Prospects:
3B Aramis Ramirez A
SS Rafael Furcal A-
LHP Mark Mulder B+
RHP Grant Roberts B-
OF Derrick Gibson C+
OF Calvin Murray C+
LHP Damian Moss C
OF Juan Rivera C
Florida Panthers Still in contention, this pitching strong and veteran seems capable of staying tight in the standings with Kansas City in the upcoming 1999 replay. But questions abound about the Y2K future, Florida faces an aging pitching staff and a minor league system somewhat weakened by the deals made to stay in the race. Can GM Ron Cox continue to avoid that painful process known as "rebuilding" ???
Strengths
Cox's weakest link at the ML level may be at 3B and he has consequently paid close attention to this position in the draft. AA 3rd sacker Aubrey Huff looks good, after hitting .301 with 40 doubles, 22 homers and drawing 64 BBs (vs. 77 Ks) in 491 at bats. Another possibility here is Joe Crede who was a highly touted prospect coming out of the Carolina league in 1998, but injuries slowed his advance this year.. ML rookie Carlos Lee was drafted as a third baseman as well, but has moved to left in Chicago-AL to prepare the way, in part, for Crede. Lee hit well and looks to be a big help in rejuvenating the Florida offense after Rickey Henderson's inevitable retirement. The only other high ceiling in the organization belongs to RHP John Patterson. Pitching in the Texas league, Patterson kept his H/IP below one and Ked 117 in 100 IP (vs. 42 BB). 24 year old Roosevelt Brown hit .358 with power at AAA and is another possible contributor to the offense. Ryan Minor is yet another 3B prospect with legitimate power but is now 25 years old and still strikes out a lot.
Weaknesses
Beyond Patterson, the only other pitching prospect is Shawn Chacon, an A ball pitcher coming back from serious arm troubles. Mac Suzuki is still wild and was ineffective out of the KC bullpen. A.J. Hinch was a disappointment behind the plate in Oakland and there is no one in the Panther system behind him. Julio Lugo is the only middle infield prospect, he hit .319 at AA with good power and speed. But he remains error-prone and is now 24 years old. None of the OF prospects demonstrates a high ceiling; Marc Lewis has plate discipline but lacks power and speed, young Jovanny Sosa (19) hit only .209 in the SAL, although Richard Hidalgo should figure somewhere in Houston's plans for next year and remains a potential big time star. GM Ron Cox clearly has a number of pressing needs; most clearly in the middle infield and on the mound. But for now, he probably lacks the draft position and dollars to grab immediate impact talent in the next draft.
Organization Grade = C+
Prospects:
RHP John Patterson B+
3B Aubrey Huff B+
3B Joe Crede B
SS Julio Lugo B-
OF Roosevelt Brown B-
3B Ryan Minor C+
OF Marc Lewis C
OF Jovanny Sosa C
1B Josh Pressley C
RHP Shawn Chacon C