March 16-29, 1998
With the graduation of its highest-profile prospects, the Moline farm system steps down a notch in quality in 1998. No one in the system yet has "five-tool great" stamped above his jersey number. Then again, last year, Andruw Jones didn't become Willie Mays, Vladimir Guerrero battled injuries, and Todd Walker got demoted. Scott Rolen did win Rookie of the Year, but his numbers, while good, didn't match those of AL winner Nomar Garciaparra. Still, major-league depth buys them all more time.
In this year's draft, Logan and scouting director Fate Norris brought in a crop of teenagers that reinvigorates the system's lower roots. Draft position and budget limited them to low minors selections, but some of the draftees hold five-tool promise, which, according to Logan " is about all you can ask when you bag them so young."
The fields weren't barren before the draft either. Top prospect Mark Kotsay was plucked from the college ranks for his hitting, but he has blossomed into a polished, multi-skilled player. Two of last year's picks, Chad Hermansen and Kris Benson, have also advanced rapidly.
Despite Benson, the system is thin in pitching. Derek Wallace lost the year to injury, and Everett Stull remains only promising. But if some hitters come through, Moline will be able to cash in some hitters for hurlers. "We'll manage," said Logan.
Background: Kotsay won the Golden Spikes award in 1995 when he led CSF to its third national championship. Kotsay hit the ground running as a professional and was picked as the Eastern League's top prospect last year in his first full professional season
Strengths: For a player without a single dominant tool, Kotsay has a bundle of abilities and contributes in multiple ways. His above-average arm shows fine accuracy. He runs well in the field and on the bases, controls the strike zone, and hits for average and middling power. A gamer, Kotsay was young for his college draft class and will play the entire 1998 season at 22.
Weaknesses: Kotsay lacks the ceiling of last year's top outfielders, Andruw Jones and Vladimir Guerrero, and may never develop as much power as either.
The Future: If AJ continues to develop, Kotsay figures to be a backup centerfielder, but he has the talent and skills to step in if the can't-miss kid does.
Background: A high school All American, Hermansen was the top prospect in the GCL and the NYPL in 1995 and again in the AFL last season. He has hit with authority at every level at a very young age.
Strengths: Hermansen has good power for such a young player. He already draws a fair number of walks. He's a good athlete with a strong arm and some speed.
Weaknesses: More erratic than awful, Hermansen still hasn't settled on a defensive position. Tried at short and the outfield, he may end up at second. Hermansen still strikes out a good deal, which limits his chances of ever hitting .300, though his power should compensate, particularly if he remains a middle infielder.
The Future: At 20, Hermansen will be perhaps the youngest player in AAA this season. Todd Walker's return to second base means he can break into a starting role gradually.
Background: King has twice been named first-team catcher on the Howe Sportsdata All-TeenTeam. He upped his batting average to .300 last year for the first time, boosted by a .356 clip in 45 AA at bats.
Strengths: King's powerful right arm threw out better than 50% of FSL runners last year. He has shrunken his strikeout rate and upped his average each year. He'll play in AA as a 20 year old.
Weaknesses: He doesn't yet hit for much power, but he's young enough for that to develop. His strike-zone judgment is fine, but he doesn't yet draw walks like Charles Johnson. Like most young catchers, King needs to improve his game-calling skills.
The Future: King is the only high-profile catcher in the Moline farm system, but with Charles Johnson and Mike Sweeney in front of him, he won't be rushed.
Background: BA's 1996 College Player of the Year, after a dominating season for Clemson, Benson sailed through a brief stint in the Carolina League before stumbling a bit at AA, partly because of hamstring and groin-muscle injuries. Benson still fanned 138 batters in 128 IP in 1997.
Strengths: Benson combines a moving, mid-90s fastball with a sweet curve. When he's on his game, his control is impeccable. Benson studies hitters and knows what he's doing on the mound. He has the build and the arsenal of a power pitcher.
Weaknesses: Benson's changeup is inconsistent, and his adjustment difficulty in AA, despite the injuries, silenced talk of a one-year stint in the minors. He must show he can throw more than his curve and fastball to succeed as a starter. His success against left-handed batters will tell much of his development story this year.
The Future: Benson should step up to AAA and could reach Moline as soon as next year, though the Greens' pitching depth assures him the development time he needs. The team considers Benson their ace of the next decade.
Background: The Greens had never drafted a college freshman before, but Burrell's .484 average in 1996 changed their minds. He "slumped" to .409 as a sophomore but continued to hit for power and remains a pure hitter.
Strengths: Burrell generates great power from his quick bat and his 6'4" frame. He walked twice as much as he struck out last year and carried that discipline into his Team USA performance, exhibiting the patience of a smart ball player. He was named BA's 1997 Summer Player of the Year, drawing 44 walks in 33 games to accompany his 12 HRs and .343 batting average.
Weaknesses: A hitter first, Burrell is not certain to stay at third. He may end up in left field or first base. While athletic, Burrell is not especially fast. For all his collegiate accomplishment, Burrell hasn't proven anything with wood yet.
The Future: Burrell is advanced enough as a hitter to spend just a year in the minors.
Background: Lee is another in the Greens' stable of ex-high school All Americans. He is the son and nephew of former major-leaguers Leon and Leron Lee. Lee has been among the youngest at every level he's played and was the Southern League MVP in 1996 at the age of 20.
Strengths: Lee showed good power until last year, when he sacrificed some home runs for reduced strikeouts. He did hit .325, led PCL first basemen in defensive runs above replacment level. He remains a good athlete who could play in the outfield if need be. At 22, Lee has ample time to improve his game.
Weaknesses: Even though he trimmed his strikeouts by 54, Lee figures to strike out a good bit as a Green. As a first baseman, Lee needs to show that he can regain some of the power he hid last season in order to figure into the Greens' long-term plans.
The Future: Rafael Palmeiro is aging, but Carlos Delgado is peaking, so Lee must wait his turn and hope that Burrell doesn't pass him in the meantime.
Background: McDonald was named BA's High School Player of the Year at Cherry Creek H.S. in Colorado, where he doubled as an All-American running back and set state records for rushing. Signed to University of Texas to play both baseball and football, McDonald opted for a professional career when $1.9 million was dangled before his eyes.
Strengths: McDonald is just 5'10" but full of tools: great outfield speed, a powerful arm, and a bat that cracked 5 HRs in his high school playoffs. He's been called the best athlete ever produced by the state of Colorado.
Weaknesses: If Coors Field makes Rockies' hitting stats suspect, then moderation must temper enthusiasm about McDonald's numbers. McDonald has yet to switch to a wooden bat. Other Cherry Creek alums (e.g., Matt Brunson) have faltered as professionals. The track record of other BA High School Players of the Year (e.g., Preston Wilson and the late Doug Million ) is not much better.
The Future: McDonald will debut in low A ball and move as quickly as his promise allows. He has the highest ceiling of any player on this list.
8 Arquimedez Pozo, 3B/2B 1994 (3)
Background: Pozo hit .342 as a 19-year-old in high A ball but hasn't hit for as high an average
since. He has loitered in AAA for three wasted years. At some point, Pozo may have acquired a bad reputation, though that's a story nobody tells.
Strengths: Pozo combines a decent average with good pop despite his stature. Downgraded for
his defense, he actually fields pretty well, though second base is a better fit for him.
Weaknesses: Pozo doesn't strike out much, but Randy Bass's lessons in drawing walks have yet
to sink in. Where once age was on his side, Pozo now faces being stuck in the minors for another
year, after which his prospect status may finally die of old age.
The Future: Better players are in front of him, both here and in Moline, but Pozo could ultimately be a good backup.
Background: Rollins was a second-team BA All American at Alameda, CA, High School in 1996
and still played all of 1997 in the South Atlantic League at 18 years old and was not overmatched.
Strengths: Rollins is fast afield and on the bases, swiping 46 in 52 attempts in 1997 while legging out 8 triples. He gets to lots
of balls at short and led the league in fielding. He is a smart ballplayer and a fine athlete who plays taller than he is.
Weaknesses: His 5'8" size limits his batting potential in the eyes of many scouts, but with Jimmy
Wynn and Joe Morgan in Moline, Rollins is in the right organization for little guys. He didn't maintain his high walk rate in his first taste of A ball, but there's time for that. The bigger offensive question attached to Rollins is his ability to hit for power.
The Future: Rollins will move to high A ball this year and won't reach Moline for at least three
years. With Derek Jeter, 23, in front of him, Rollins will move one level at a time.
Background: Nunez debuted in the DSL but came to the States to hit .365 last year in Arizona,
where he was named the AFL's #4 prospect.
Strengths: Nunez already shows the ability to go the other way, and his 17 doubles mark him as
a player with power promise. He also doesn't strike out much, just 31 times in 208 at bats.
Weaknesses: Nunez is raw defensively and never figures to become an acrobat in the field. As
a Dominican player, he must overcome a cultural prejudice against the base on balls. It's too early to tell if he'll even be average in that category.
The Future: One luxury of major-league depth is gradual player development. Nunez has years to further build
his skills as a hitter and a fielder. The Greens can wait and see what sort of hitter he becomes.
9 Jimmy Rollins, SS 1998 (3)
10 Jose Nunez, 2B 1998 (5)
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