WCS



William Charles Simpson
Forecast Lag Measurements


GNP 1970 to '82


GNP Lag Measurement 1970 to '82
Figures in billions of dollars. Growth factor is year to year net change. Lag happens when actuals are equal or greater than the sliding projections. Figures for 1982 are preliminary. Source: Economics, 7th Ed., by Lipsey, Steiner, Purvis/Economic Report of the President 1983.
Note: These are *NOT* the time conversions.

year gnp prev nc proj lag y0 lag y1 lag y2            
           
1970 993            
1971 1078 993 85 1163 92.7%            
1972 1186 1078 108 1294 91.7% 102.0%            
1973 1326 1186 140 1466 90.5% 102.5% 114.0%            
1974 1434 1326 108 1542 93.0% 97.8% 110.8%            
1975 1549 1434 115 1664 93.1% 100.5% 105.7%            
1976 1718 1549 169 1887 91.0% 103.2% 111.4%            
1977 1918 1718 200 2118 90.6% 101.6% 115.3%            
1978 2164 1918 246 2410 89.8% 102.2% 114.7%            
1979 2418 2164 254 2672 90.5% 100.3% 114.2%            
1980 2633 2418 215 2848 92.5% 98.5% 109.3%            
1981 2938 2633 305 3243 90.6% 103.2% 110.0%            
1982 3058 2938 120 3178 96.2% 94.3% 107.4%            


Last Updated on 1/16/99
Last Updated on 2/2/99
By WC Simpson




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