THE FUTURE OF VIDEO GAMES AND COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY

Being a veteran gamer, I can say that about 12 years ago when I was playing my NES and the Genesis, I used to project myself into this year and think about what games I would be playing. Guess what I thought about? You guessed it, 3-D games. I imagined gaming worlds and landscapes where everything was in 3-D, and the characters would speak verbally instead of reading text on the screen. I knew the day would come to pass where you could explore a virtually endless world filled with hundreds of characters and many different things to do in a profoundly fantastic setting. Those mental visions became reality. Today the games have trascended gaming and are encroaching on cinema. Computer power steadily grows, and proportionally the complexity of what can be done expands. There are new players now that truly can't appreciate this golden age like someone my age can. My dreams of the past are here and now, and things are only getting better!

I often find myself dwelling on future. Every new gadget that comes out, I'm all over it, and in awe of what it is, but always knew beforehand that "one of those" was coming sooner or later I just had to wait until science and technology caught up to my imagination. Having arrived in the future, I must again push outward, onward, and upward beyond this location into the next to see what's coming. By looking at technology today, experimentation and new breakthroughs, it is not too difficult to project some probabilities. Regarding video game trends, a good comparison to make is to correlate the development of video games to that of cinema. Movies really took off in the late 1920's and early 30's, as they converted from silent to sound, and black and white to color. Follow the same scenario with games, looking at the first Arcade units, with black and white screens of dots and bars, to today's 3-D wonders. Video games follow just behind the "Moore's Law" of PC's, and are riding just behind the crest of new technology. Console gaming platforms get updated about every 5 years. The last wave of updates brought us the Dreamcast in 1999, the Playstation 2 in 2000, and the GameCube and X-Box in 2001. All of these are still around aside from the Dreamcast, whose company is now producing games only. Sony, Playstation 2 has a dominance over the console gaming industry, just like it did with the 32/64 bit generation, but with a firm established user base both Nintendo and Microsoft are not likely to evaporate. Unlike the previous generation of consoles the current systems are about equally matched, and the hardware is capable of producing similar experiences across all the consoles. Developers have gotten past the initial difficulties in creating software for these new consoles, and very impressive gaming experiences are being released. This doesn't preclude though that the ever present existence of shovelware titles stop being made. There will always be lousy games that just plain suck or exist directly in the center of mediocre usually encompassing non-innovative or cliched premises and uninspired production effort.

The big push for console manufacturers and game developers is toward utilizing the untapped resource market of the internet to create multiplayer gaming experiences and increase revenue beyond the margin gained from software. In the coming years more console games will go online, and systems that do not have a hard drive will gain this peripheral. What the industry fails to realize is that adopters will be gradual not exponential. Broadband is still a luxury to most people, and in some cases still not available in certain areas. Throughout 2003 and 2004 console companies like Microsoft and Sony will tout multiplayer online play as the next great thing, but they will likely find only marginal gains in this area if any at all. Sony will find that the hard drive for the PS doesn't sell well because developers will be slow to support it. As history shows players aren't the most enthusiasic about add on hardware (Sega 32X, Virtual Boy, N64DD Disk Drive), such units usually flounder. There may even be glitches that end up causing more annoyance than benefit. Players will likely complain of service fees, logon troubles, and cheating. There will be an audience for online multiplayer, but this core will not grow that rapidly after the inital "early adopter" spike. Nintendo will likely watch the other two companies to see what happens with multiplayer, and may not even enter the area until the replacement of the Gamecube in 2006.

Television in the United States is going through a transition between conventional analog signal to digital High Definition. This means that current sets will be completely obsolete by late 2007, requiring converter boxes to change the digital signal back to analog again. The FCC has continued to rachet pressure on televison manufacturers to make more digital TV's at lower prices. The cost of HDTV has pretty much alienated many consumers, with about 3% of the population currently owning HDTV sets in sizes usually larger than 40". Both the PS2 and the X-Box support HDTV, but a very elite set of gamers can truly play any games like this, and not all games can play in the 16:9 ratio. Prices of HDTV will fall and production will increase as more consumers jump on board. Flat Panel TV's currently an extravagance in the $5000+ range will fall into the same price range of current HDTV sets.

By 2004 and 2005 console manufacturers will be steadily into research and development of the next wave of consoles. Games produced for the Playstation 2, X-Box, and GameCube will be absolutely incredible at this time pushing each system's envelope. A 3-D Zelda game will appear by 2006. Final Fantasy XIII will fix problems gamers complained about FFXI and FFXII. I think Microsoft might be the first one to put out a new console, probably X-Box 2.0 or something stupid and unimaginative like that. The X-Box 2.0 will likely have a 200 GB or higher Hard Drive, 1 GB of DDR or Hybrid RAM Standard that produces greater speeds than DDR and Rambus. It's processor will likely be another Intel unless AMD does something amazing or gives MS a good deal. The X-Box 2.0 will probably have a 4 or 5 Ghz processor. MS will say that the X-Box 2.0 will push a "a few Billion Polygons" for "photorealism." It will cost $399. If MS gets too greedy and foolish they'll release the X-Box 2.0 in 2003 or '04, and have less than half the specs I listed, and it will flop and their console business will conclude when console gamers and developers feel alienated by MS. I have a good feeling Sony will collaborate with several Japanese hardware manufacturers including Toshiba, Matsushita, NEC, etc and focus on developing the same photorealism as MS in the states, but for it's Japanese audiences AI will probably be a big thing, they will take that "Emotion Engine" hype from the PS2 to a whole new level with actual CPU and Hardware in game AI. Sony will utilize Blue Laser technology for the Playstation 3 to read 20+ GB DVDs. Nintendo will probably hide in obscurity until the last minute as usual, but you never know, now that Yamauci has retired, Nintendo might go for something bold, spending a massive amount on R and D on the GameCube's successor, the "GameSphere." they will also claim AI capability, photorealism, and multi-billion polygon rates. Most games produced for these machines will have Pixar level 3-D graphics. Production budgets will approach the cost of hollywood films. These systems will require use with a digital HDTV set, will support 6.1 surround and 10.1 surround sound. Sony may also use the Memory stick to face map your face from a Sony digital camera to a character in a game. Either the Sony PS3 or X-Box, or both will double as a digital video recording deck to pause live television or record live TV similar to a Tivo or ReplayTV box. These systems also may include a Wi-Fi or Bluetooth capability for wireless networking to the home broadband gateway.

By 2007 and 2008 all the kinks will be worked out of broadband multiplayer and most games will have an online component, whether it be just accessing a webpage, chatroom, or message board related to the game, or online multiplayer gameplay. Broadband internet users will increase from 45% in 2005 to 95% in 2010. A 50 Inch Flat Panel HDTV will cost $1199 in 2010. Circuit City will be selling a 13.5 Ghz, 3 GB RAM (If you want to call it that), 3 TB Hard Drive, 100 GB Blue Laser SuperDVD-RW, and DVD-RW/R/RAM/+R/+RW (This will be like the Floppy Drive today at this point). with MS WIndowsAI "The Human OS" in 2010 for about $1499. The computer will program it's own drivers, and communicate with other computers to fix itself or determine a solution. The computer will be a human interface with voice recognition. Most PC's will be able to wirelessly communicate with other PC's over broadband. The VideoPhone will finally be a feasable reality by the early 20Teens. Average Laptops will weigh about 3 Lbs each, and use Established G4 Cell Phone networks to be online everywhere. All laptops will be able to detect any network within their reception range. Most cars will come with voice recognized GPS. People will STILL be putting PS3's and flatpanel TV's in their '09 Expeditions. There will be a computer or similar device called the "Phantom" that actually projects a holographic representation of the keyboard, and display, it will have a region in the holographic "space" that it uses as a pointing device by determining the position and motion of a person's hand. This unit will weigh less than a pound.

Much to the dismay of the Actor's guild Union, studios will employ artificial character modelers and technicians to make artificial actors capable of performing a role without error on the first take. It will be as simple as programming the lines and the desired emotion that the computer figures out based upon the circumstances of the plot or what the other digital actors' roles are portraying. A studio will be sued by the Union for trying this. They will lose. Around this time, studios will start talking with Video Game console companies and PC companies about interactive cinema, the new term for the maturation of video games as an artform. Gamers that played a NES when it was released will be entering their 30's, and with them video games will mature. There were be pornographic interactive entertainment.

Yes, VR will make a comeback, and new advanced environments will be photorealisic, and other players will be able to see your digital presence that you created in an avatar creator. You will speak into a microphone and they will hear your voice in simulated reality sound. The Playstation 4, will not have a controller, rather a wireless ocular headband that fits over your ears and eyes. The game system will be able to simulate any kind of weather, create characters and new gaming experiences by purchasing such capabilities with your VISA, MasterCard, AMEX, or Discover card from the database. Someone will develop a tactile body suit. Cybersex will take on a whole new meaning.

The digital world will encroach into the real world. Clothing will be digital, paper media like Newspapers, Magazines, and books will start disappearing by the mid to late Teens, becoming replaced with digital ink, essentially a hard plastic film about a fifth of an inch think with a black band along the top and side of the panel. When you turn on your digital newspaper a "site" will appear on it, with live video feeds from UAV-Cams hovering over where stuff is happening. By touching the screen you can switch immediately between local, regional, national, and world news feeds. Billboards will be digital, and distract drivers, possibly being debated by local and state municipalities until cars drive themselves with GPS, laser guidence, and proximity cameras. There will be a "hacker war" and new "hacker vandals" will appear that use their laptop or "Phantoms" to crack the encryption on a satellite or G4 Cellular controlled digital billboard to put, "You are all a bunch of fags!" There will be a pair of iridescent nanotech Nike's that include a voice activated OS (probably using Michael Jordan's voice) that tell you how far you've run, the temperture of your feet, your heartrate, how many calories you burned, how much you wiegh, and how you compare to top atheletes. These will cost $350 but you know every kid will want one.

You still won't be able to play video games in school 2020, but every desk for every student will be a flat panel computer console with holographic keyboard and AI that keeps pace with the teachers curriculum. The entire blackboard will be a digital display interface complete with drop down menus and voice recognition. "The square of pi divided by 2" will appear on the board as the teacher says it. You'll get in trouble for bringing your PS5 glasses in class. Your homework will be stored on an micro-optical disk but when you come to class with it mangled and twisted because the dog ate it, you'll teacher will still give you a zero because you could have downloaded your assignment from the schools network from home. A kid will get expelled for hacking the blackboard and putting porn on it.

You little sister will get "animal alive" for Christmas. He will read stories from a book and play with her and the other toys. Mom will pay $40.00 on her VISA Online card by touching the dislay on it for a new personality for your little sister's furry little pal. Her barbies will play with themselves and decorate their own doll house, Mattel buys the AI from Maxis creators of "The Sims Robotics AI". In the 2020's everything and everyone will be talking about AI. From tools to robots, more and more devices will be problem solvers, and do the bidding of the owner's command. Upper middle-class and rich will feel it a status symbol to have a robotic housekeeper. The military will start contruction of robotic footsoldiers, that replace the dangerous jobs previously held by humans. Congress will debate the limits of AI. Worried about the enevidablity of AI gaining sentience, and potential terrorist threats from hostile nations using unconrolled AI. It will be decided to put limiters on AI's that mimic the operations of the human brain. Not everyone in the world will do this, and sciensts will see it as a step in preventing invention. The first sentient AI will be born. The Catholic Church will admonish scientists for desecrating the holiness of God's greatest creation, man. "No device should be made in the likeness of a man, or have the mind of a man, such a device can not have a soul or be saved by Jesus! It is a sin. " Some Christains refuse to keep AI's in their house, and more conservative communities ban them entirely. Such laws are ruled unconstituional and overturned.

General Jason Helmsley, 53, briefly remembers back to playing his Nintendo when he was a kid while he guides a battallion of drones and SWARM UAV's across a battlefield with the wave of a pointing device over a translucent wall display of the theater from the safety of the Pentagon some 13,000 miles away. This is to end the tyranny of a dictator who has kept his people at barely a 20th century level standard of living. There are still a few countries like this left, but they are disappearing with the tide of world change.

By 2030, several thousand AI machines, robots, and devices will be working on Space Stations, and constructing the Space Elevator weaving cabon-nanomatricies. With exponential contruction of AI's by other AI systems, construction of the space elevator is completed ahead of schedule. Pong is added to the Smithsonian. "Humanity has spent it's days on the ground, and now is the time when we will grow wings." - The Toyota Wingspan. Cars lift off from driveways with AI and GPS controlled navigation systems. Highways in the air span cities, then states, then countries, and then the world. A girl puts photoreflective nano particles into her hair and it glows irridescently in daylight and in the dark, and this catches the fancy of the cute guy with his augmented reality ocular headband, and he uploads his profile to hers. That night they "cyber."

Chris grabs his Playstation 7 Sphere from the kitchen table and feels a tickling sensation in his hand. Imediately the room around him disappears, and is replaced by a grassy plain. There is a town ahead. He speaks to Mirian and finds out that there is a magician who has been acting strangely in the past few weeks. He puts his hand above his eyes to shield them from the twin suns shining in the western sky to get a better look at the castle on the edge of the outcrop of rock. Just as he was about to begin this quest, the words, "Pause for Reality Interface" appear in the air infront of him and his mom says that it's time for him to go to bed. He thinks the gesture to save the status of his experience, and this world disappears from his consciousness and he's back to his house.

At some point, the consciousness of AI will not be limited, and technology will augment humanity, I talked about this in some articles on the Millennium Crossroads of the Mind's Eye, but essentially there will come a point of merging between, genetic engineering, cybernetics, and AI. These technological evolutions will merge into a single strand of species evolution and human beings spread their consciousness across the galaxy and through time. What will be recreation for such beings? Video Games will cease to exist and there will not be a term that you the reader or I can comprehend for this. I can only fathom that "creation" itself will be recreation to such superbeings. Existence will mold itself to the shape of the person who perceives it, and the mind will ride across unbridaled realms of thought and imagination.