The Demographic Transition Model
á The Demographic Transition Model attempts to show how population changes over a period of time.
á The model has been used to predict changes to population growth.
á The model plots birth rates and death rates over time.
á The gap between birth rates and death rates = population growth.
á Most developed countries have followed the pattern shown in the model:
The model is divided into four stages:
Stage 1 - Birth rate and death rate are high. Rate of natural increase is low, so the total population is low.
Stage 2 - Birth rate is high and death rate is falling. As a result, there is high natural increase (population growth)
Stage 3 - Falling birth rate and low death rate = high natural increase (population growth)
Stage 4 - Birth rate and death rate is low, so there is a low natural increase.
Some people are noting that there may now be a Stage 5 - Birth rate have fallen below death rates, so there is a natural decrease in population - this has happened in some European countries.