From The Nation, Thailand 22nd August 2000

Citizens are increasingly disillusioned with the Malaysian prime minister, and imprisoning Anwar may not end threats to his rule, writes Sunai Phasuk

Circumstances surrounding Anwar Ibrahim's fall from power have unearthed the fact that what actually determines political life in Malaysia is the internal contest for the leadership of the United Malays National Organisation (Umno). Incumbents, vying for a grip on power over the ruling party and the government are often dragged through the pit of smearing and controversies.

During his foray into the spotlight of national politics between 1993 and early 1998, Anwar was seen as Dr Mahathir Mohamad's chosen heir. In his capacity as a prominent Muslim intellectual and a leader of new political forces that promised a more open and just society, Anwar had effectively served to broaden Umno's power bastion. Indeed his popularity among the party members of Umno, the majority Malay community and the world community suggested that he might enjoy greater support than the prime minister. This was a threatening situation that could possibly apply enough political pressure for an early succession against Mahathir's own wish.

Understanding that his seemingly irrepressible rise would not be tolerated by the prime minister for long, Anwar began to garner support across the societal spectrum by capitalising on public frustration over the spreading economic recession. He activated the reformasi (reformation) movement with a call for a destruction of the political system controlled by Mahathir, which he described as corrupt and plagued by cronyism.

Mahathir is widely known as a no-nonsense leader who has taken a tough stand against those who challenge his power. When he became resentful of Anwar he struck with full force without warning. The Umno-dominated state machinery, legal system and key national institutions were orchestrated to destroy Anwar's popularity and credibility so that he would never be able to attain political power again. Anwar was fired from all cabinet portfolios on September 2, 1998. He was subsequently arrested and jailed on charges of corruption, abuse of power and sexual misconduct.

Charges of corruption and abuse of power were aimed at undercutting his image as the figurehead of the reformasi movement, while claims of personal dishonesty and sexual allegations were set to undermine his support in the majority conservative Muslim Malay community. Most important, a 15-year jail sentence deals Anwar's political career a hard blow as he will be prevented from holding office for five years after his release in 2014. He has been almost permanently removed from the future leadership succession in both Umno and the government by a course of decisions made only by Mahathir.

But on the other hand there exists a strong sense of public disgust with the unfairness and political conspiracy in the handling of Anwar's trial. Sensational events and controversies surrounding the entire affair have led to unprecedented public frustration and unleashed a political awakening.

It is true that after an initial flurry of demonstrations, Anwar's supporters have failed to sustain a broad on-the-streets protest the likes of which have toppled other long-standing leaders such as Suharto in Indonesia. This is partly due to a number of tough measures taken by the government. But the "Anwar factor" lives on. In fact, it has divided the country like never before - a communal split that has led to fading popularity for Mahathir and Umno.

It is not just the urban middle class or the intelligentsia that have come out against Mahathir's rule; the strong antipathy to the Umno-dominated government is found in many poor sectors of the Muslim Malay community. Farmers and factory workers have begun to realise that Malaysia's rapid development is highly inequitable. National resources have been depleted by the prime minister's obsession with gaudy construction projects, making Malaysia vulnerable to global economic uncertainties. These people have also said that if the state machinery could be manoeuvred unfairly against the former deputy prime minister, then the civil rights and freedoms of ordinary citizens are absolutely in peril.

Both at the polls and on the streets, citizens question Mahathir's style of governance on the ground that a consolidation of power in his hands has led to the systematic erosion of justice, the rule of law, civil liberties, human rights and social fairness. Deep dissatisfaction with these issues is evident even within Umno, leading to mass defections to the Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS) and the Anwar-linked National Justice Party (Keadilan).

The prime minister may have laughed at his critics and continued to mock the Alternative Front as a "broken coalition", but the reality is that the opposition is now more united. It is riding well on the back of the reformasi demands for an all-out attack on nepotism and corruption and for greater freedoms and a fairer justice system. PAS and Keadilan are effectively wresting constituencies in the Muslim Malay community from Umno. And it is also true that since the 1999 general elections Umno has to rely more on the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) for the strong backing necessary to maintain its two-thirds majority vote and a stranglehold on legislation.

Mahathir's grumpy reaction to MCA's demands for a greater share of power in the government and his attempted shows of strength by continuously harassing Anwar's supporters, to little effect, are being seen as a sign of the advancing insecurities of age and a changing power configuration.

By ridding Umno of capable incumbents and future leadership, Mahathir has destroyed his party and much of what he has done for it over the past 18 years. His newly designated successor, Minister of Home Affairs Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, lacks personal charisma and is not ready to face a major power showdown. Badawi's potential rivals in Umno include Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, who was narrowly defeated by Mahathir in a 1987 leadership challenge, and former deputy prime minister Musa Hitam. Outside the ruling party, the previously inconsequential opposition is gaining a lot of momentum from the Anwar factor. A subtle process of political reform is also getting onto firm ground, perhaps in a less confrontational manner. Supporters of the reformasi movement, at home and abroad, are capitalising on information superhighways to raise political awareness in a way that will challenge Mahathir's system of governance over the next several years.