The 10th general elections has shown starkly the erosion in support for the Barisan Nasional. Although it gained a 75% majority in parliament, it only managed to secure 57% of the popular vote, down from 65% in 1995 despite the massive advantages enjoyed by the incumbency and the desperate dirty tricks it pulled. Without the disenfranchising of 680,000 voters, the total control of the mass media, the no-holds-barred advertising blitz, the dubious postal votes and the electoral roll irregularities one wonders whether the BN could have won even a simple majority at all. As UMNO is the dominant party in BN, its leaders and policies set the tone for the whole coalition. With the electoral rolls swelled by young, educated voters every year and the rise of monopoly busting information technology, the next general elections will be extremely challenging to the ruling party. The opposition is now dominated by Malay, not Chinese so UMNO’s claim that only it can protect Malay rights rings hollow. The question is, can UMNO change to survive?

Firstly, let’s examine the reason why the Barisan Nasional has lost support among the people it has ruled since independence. Specifically, its major component parties UMNO has lost support among the Malays, Chinese no longer think the MCA represent them and Indians have gravitated away from MIC. Of the three, UMNO’s erosion in Malay support is most serious so much so that in the recently concluded General Elections it had to depend heavily on the performance of its non-Malay components to stay in power. Although Mahathir’s cruel and unjust treatment of Anwar Ibrahim had done much to split Malay unity, there are far bigger issues than justice for one charismatic leader.

The New Economic Policy which was supposed to distribute the wealth more evenly between Chinese and Malays had been implemented in a way which resulted in sharply  inequitable distribution of wealth. Sweetheart privatization deals which guaranteed heavy profits for well-connected individuals had created a breed of super-rich Malay elite while rural Malays remain poor and urban Malays struggle along with other races with the increased cost of living due to the masses having to bear the burden of the one-sided privatization policies. Instead of being a party protecting Malay rights, UMNO had become a party to protect the business interests of rich Malays and other cronies with whom the party had formed a symbiotic relationship to preserve each other and feed off the economy. Hence Renong had to be rescued no matter what the cost and Bank Bumiputra had to be bailed out for the 4th time with billions of tax payers’ funds. When the economy was good multi-billion mega projects were proposed as a fast vehicle for enriching sons, relatives, politicians and cronies.

Inequitable distribution of wealth is the result of UMNO’s deeply entrenched patronage system. This feudalistic system means loyalty to the leader in exchange for rewards, so rewards in the form of money spinning contracts are given to family, allies and cronies. Yet another inevitable feature of the patronage system is the creation of an all powerful leader whom everybody else in the party hierarchy depend on for their position and so they must be seen to be unwaveringly loyal to him. That man is of course the UMNO president which also confers the Prime Ministership of Malaysia. The result of this is a party which brook no dissent, no criticism and no disagreement among the leadership no matter what the top dog does. All party members are reduced to sycophantic, fawning yes men and women in order to survive and flourish within the party. When Mahathir unleashed his cruel and unjust persecution of Anwar Ibrahim, not one UMNO leader dared to voice out the faintest whimper of objection. Instead we had servile political leaders joining in the attack on truth and justice in the hope of elevating their political fortunes.

One disagreeable offshoot of this concept of absolute loyalty is the high tolerance of corruption and moral crimes within the ranks of the party. Loyalty to the Prime Minister is of paramount importance and as long as one remains loyal no amount of corruption, moral crimes or dereliction of duty is cause for expulsion from the party.  Resignation from public position may be demanded but the law will be applied most leniently if at all and one’s party position is safe. Ex-Melaka Chief Minister Rahim Thamby Chik nimbly escaped the attention of the law for statutory rape. International Trade Minister Rafidah Aziz was re-appointed even with prima facie proof of money corruption by the ACA. Extraordinary acquisition of wealth by ex-Selangor Chief Minister Muhamed Taib only brought a paltry eyewash charge of failing to declare assets (maximum penalty RM2000) which the Attorney-General could not even secure a conviction. All these offenders still remain secure within the UMNO power structure. On the other hand, Anwar Ibrahim was sacked from the party even before he was charged in court for abuse of power and alleged sodomy. The real reason was not moral grounds as Mahathir is found of claiming, but the threat to his leadership which was unforgiveable.

 As for the major BN component parties the MCA , Gerakan and MIC, the Chinese and Indians they claim to represent have no illusion of their rights being protected or enhanced due to their complete subservience to UMNO. Whatever UMNO wants to implement it does not even have to consult the coalition partners as the relationship is more akin to a master-servant relationship. All component parties are expected to vote as a block in parliament, even for laws and policies which infringe on minority rights. Even a dubious law which should trigger much debate like allowing non-irrevocable conversion of minors to Islam without parental approval is passed without a whimper of dissent. The minority leaders like Ling Liong Sik and Samy Vellu are reduced to powerless underlings in Cabinet without daring to speak up for their community whether it is more Chinese schools or the revocation of work permits for foreign Hindu priests. One may well ask how they manage to get re-elected for bearing such servile attitude. The short answer is that UMNO knows how to allocate Malay dominated safe seats to such pseudo leaders at every election.

Can UMNO really change their deeply entrench patronage system? When Mahathir was ejected from UMNO in 1969, he bitterly criticized this system especially the all powerful position of the Prime Minister. An UMNO President is powerful enough to declare no contest for his own and his deputy’s position. But when Mahathir became UMNO president he did nothing to change the system, in fact he worked it ruthlessly to his advantage. When Tengku Razaleigh split off from UMNO to form Semangat 46 a decade ago he also attacked UMNO’s patronage system as the root of all the party’s ills but he still rejoined UMNO when he failed to make political headway and has been keeping quiet ever since. Clearly UMNO as a party is not easy to change anything as it tolerates no dissent. It has remained structurally the same for 50 years. Those who accuse Anwar as being conforming when he was in UMNO and only criticizing the party after he was expelled should bear in mind that his head would have rolled sooner.

If anything the Anwar Ibrahim affair has shown how difficult for even a well-intentioned leader to make changes within UMNO. No change can be effectively made even as the second man in UMNO and the Deputy Prime Minister. One has to reach the very top position, nothing less and even then change would not come easily as the old guard tries to cling on to their positions of power and influence while reserving their right to skim off the economy. If Anwar had reached the pinnacle of UMNO, he would have been in a good position to clean up UMNO, but now he is in jail and that chance may be gone forever. He could have waited his time, but sickened as he was by the corruption, cronyism and nepotism, the plunder of the economy and careless use of public money, he tried to institute changes a little too soon. He paid the ultimate price for not conforming 100% with his boss. We will have to wait for another leader to emerge who can rise through the ranks of UMNO as a conformist without being morally corrupted and greedy to maintain his omnipotent position once he reached the top. Such a leader may not come within our grandchildren’s generation.

As can be seen, the system within UMNO is highly resistant to change as it tends to maintain itself through power-hungry leaders who have a great self-interest to propagate the system once they reach the top. Mahathir who once severely criticized it certainly has no desire to change anything, intoxicated and addicted to power as he is. Yet UMNO and BN must change or die. The call for real democracy sweeping the region will not leave the party unchallenged. As the population becomes more educated and well-informed they demand greater transparency and accountability and a free press. Thailand and South Korea have exchanged their governments for more democratic ones after the 1997 economic crisis. The Philippines have thrown off the yoke of Marcos and the Indonesians have pried themselves loose from Suharto’s iron grasp. Even fellow dictator Lee Kuan Yew in neighbouring Singapore has stepped down. Malaysia is becoming increasingly isolated by clinging on to authoritarian rule by an oppressive strongman while the rest of Asean are bowing to change. Soon Malaysia will soon find among its friends only those from the ranks of other authoritarian regimes like Myanmar, Cuba and African banana republics.

Today UMNO finds itself in an increasingly hostile environment to its survival, but unable to change to be in tune with the expectations of the people. There is no political will to clean up rampant corruption and cronyism and punish wrong-doers. The recent decision not to allow the two top party posts to be contested will weaken the party further. Hence it must strive to cling on to power by a variety of oppressive and unfair means including total control of the mass media and playing one race against another. We have seen how the last general elections has been the dirtiest in history with desperate tactics the likes of which has never been seen before. Besides the Election Commission’s collusion in preventing 680,000 new voters from voting, fear was used to the utmost including racial fear and mistrust, fear of riots, fear of racial unrest, fear of Malays losing privileges, fear of Chinese losing their culture and an exaggerated fear of Islam which UMNO profess to uphold. Nothing else seems too immoral to be used, even fake issues of Harakah (an opposition party newspaper) and fake posters of Wan Azizah standing under BN platform.

But even such measures will fail to guarantee BN’s retention of power in future general elections. Using the old racial divide and rule strategy is irrelevant, obsolete and offensive in a multi-racial nation used to living in racial harmony and will eventually be rejected by a well-informed populace. Every year, about half a million new voters join the electoral roll, most of them are not fans of UMNO and their servile allies. Unless the Election Commission wants to claim that it takes more than 5 years to register a voter, the next poll will be extremely precarious to the ruling party. Monopoly of information cannot be effective maintained in the age of  information technology and alternative sources of news like the Internet, satellite TV and satellite radio will punch gaping holes in the cocoon of controlled news. Perhaps BN will still be able to scrap though the 11th general elections but it may well be booted out after that. And to many people, that will be good riddance to a party that cannot change.
 

Contributed by Kenny G.
5/1/2000