Votes Motivated by Fear Will End Up Self-fulfilling
21.10.99
Was DAP Leader Lim Kit Siang crying wolf when he voiced the danger of DAP suffering the worst defeat in history in the coming Election? I do not think so. In fact, I have been having this misgiving for quite some time. Recent political upheavals in Malaysia and Indonesia have thrown up political factors that caused a major exchange of roles between the Malay and Chinese voters in an election. The Malay voters who traditionally voted enbloc for the UMNO dominated Barisan Nasional are now poised to vote against BN. And the Chinese voters who traditionally supported opposition party DAP (support rate ranging from 55% to 80%) have now shifted position, ready to cast their votes for BN.
While the Malay switch of allegiance is in part related to political ideals (inspired mainly by Anwar), the Chinese shift of voting preference is motivated mainly by fears. Little do the Chinese realise that their votes of fear may turn out to be a self-fulfilling exercise that will transform their fears into reality.
The basis of my observation is that the trans-migration of Chinese votes in the coming Election will be a major one, much more than what Lim Guan Eng�s expressed worry of a further reduction of Chinese votes from 55% in 1995 to 50% now (Sin Chew Jit Poh dated 15.10.99). As a result of this impending shift of Chinese votes, DAP will be practically eliminated as a political force, leaving the opposition field almost entirely to PAS, whose strength in Parliament is expected to increase many folds, thanks to the deflection of Anwar sympathisers into its folds from UMNO. Keadilan is not expected to do well in the Election as its candidates will be contesting in mostly racially mixed constituencies, where the Chinese votes are pivotal. The emerging political scene will then be a bi-polar power structure - a much stronger PAS dominating on the opposition, with the ever victorious and powerful Barisan Nasional (controlled by UMNO) returning to the seat of Government.
The Chinese must now compare this scenario with the other potential scenario that may surface, if and when the Chinese throw their support behind the Alternative Front. In that scenario, the opposition benches in Parliament will be filled by not only a stronger PAS, but also a stronger DAP as well as first time occupants Keadilan and PRM, both parties championing multi-racialism. And of course, the occupants in the government benches will be reduced commensurately.
Which of the above 2 scenarios is more likely to bring the two worst fears of the Chinese into reality? The two worst fears are: Malaysia becoming an Islamic State, and Malaysia plunging into chaos where Chinese are brutalised, Indonesia style.
We take a look firstly at Scenario 1: Eclipse of DAP, Keadilan and PRM.
ISLAMIC STATE
Barisan Nasional is in effect a basket of racial parties, and its supposed fabric of multi-racial harmony is precariously woven together through relationship among communal leaders, bonded by personal self-interests. And the role of MCA in this racial grouping is peripheral. Its partnership with UMNO is more cosmetic than power sharing in nature. For purpose of political calculations, BN means UMNO, as the former is completely controlled by the latter. And UMNO means Malays and Muslims. So, under the newly emerged bi-polar political realities, we have on the one side, opposition PAS, whose idealogy is Islamic; and on the other side, Ruling Party UMNO, whose ideology is racial.
In such a Parliament where both poles of power are Muslim based, it is entirely likely that UMNO will not desist from increasing Islamic legislation , in its competition for influence among Muslims who dominate 75% of the parliamentary constituencies in this Country. In such an eventuality, what is there to stop the slide towards an Islamic State, without the moderating influence of DAP and other multi-racial parties Keadilan and PRM? Can MCA be expected to stand up and stop this trend? Not a chance, given MCA�s unbroken record of complete subservience to UMNO in the past 30 years, and the heavily vested personal self-interests MCA leaders have in the status quo of BN. Hence, chances are that there will not be any significant force within BN that could check the trend towards an Islamic State, should UMNO decide out of political expediency to go along with it.
With regards to the second fear of chaos and violence, should the Chinese feel safer in Scenario 1?
CHAOS AND VIOLENCE
In seeking an answer to this question, we must firstly clear up the issue of May 13th. In Mahathir�s recent election speeches, he repeatedly warned of the danger of May 13th riots recurring, should BN loose the 2/3 majority . But do you know that he also told Newsweek(dated 30.08.99) in an interview that he did not believe there would be another May 13th in Malaysia? He reasoned that the “poor Malays - rich Chinese” relationship prevailing in Malaysia in1969 had been fundamentally altered, resulting in the elimination of the underlying factors that caused the riots. He illustrated this by saying that should there be a riot now, the cars and houses being burnt are likely to be owned by Malays, unlike those days in 1969 when the burnt properties belonged almost entirely to the Chinese. I believe this assessment of the May 13th issue by Mahathir is a realistic appraisal of the current political situation.
Then why did Mahathir tell his Malaysian audience that he believed May 13th riots will return should BN loose the 2/3 majority? This is because he had found May 13th a most effective trump card to use on the Chinese electorate, its success being proven in past elections. His warning of a May 13th was aimed at the Chinese, and was intended more to intimidate than to enlighten.
Then, what about the possibility of an Indonesian style chaos? The downfall of Suharto was due to the collapse of the Indonesian economy. The resulting mass poverty and hunger had driven the masses to the streets to seek redress and justice. Years of rampant corruption and cronyism under Suharto had corroded government and corporate integrity to the core, causing the economy to be mutilated, leaving only a fa�ade of economic progress exemplified by a bubble economy. The total lack of discipline in the financial institutions and the insatiable greed and ambition of crony capitalists have ruined the Indonesian economy. When the wave of investors� panic reached its shore, the financial institutions fell like a pack of cards, leaving the economy buried under a mountain of debt.
The Malaysian economic and financial crisis is a mini-replica of the Indonesian model. Malaysia was spared of the Indonesian fate mainly because it was very much less exposed to foreign debt as well as having taken precautionary measures (under stewardship of Anwar as Finance Minister) to dampen the stock and property market and to step up vigilance on non-performing loans (changing NPL criterion from 6 months to 3 months) well before the Crisis. As in Indonesia, the main causes of the Malaysian crisis are: rampant corruption, crony capitalism, non-productive mega projects, overheated stock and property markets, indiscipline in financial institutions, poor public and private governance.
In spite of concerted propaganda to project an image of reforms and robust recovery, there has not been genuine reforms by the Malaysian Government - the kind that would restore enough health to sustain long term growth, not the kind that only give temporary relief to the symptoms. The latter, which are practiced by BN, include overemphasis in pushing up the stock market (good for the election), rolling over debts of mainly crony conglomerates by Government without commensurate corporate reforms (only served to delay the time bomb), forcing bank mergers to achieve size but not quality (banking imprudence, smacked of greed and politics), revival of uneconomical mega spending (short sighted boosting of economy).
The lack of political will to admit weaknesses and to carry out painful reforms, combined with the lack of sound economic strategy has doomed BN to failure in its pursuit of long term robust growth. And this view is confirmed by BN�s failure to regain both domestic and foreign investors� confidence, evidenced from investment statistics.
A triumphant return of BN to power with its 2/3 majority intact, in spite of the fiercest challenge to its hegemony in its history will be taken as a strong signal to Mahathir that he could continue with his Pharaohic style of leadership to fulfil his grandiose dreams - more mega projects (less economic rationale), and more anti-West rhetoric to enhance his Third World Leader crown. The obliteration of Keadilan will be of particular personal satisfaction to Mahathir, and he will take it as vindication of his handling of the Anwar Affair.
The persecution of Anwar has symbolised to Malaysians the crushing of our democratic process. Hence, an electoral endorsement of Mahathir�s handling of Anwar will be the death knell of democracy in this Country. We can then expect more abuses of our democratic institutions and more mutilation of our Constitution.
On the economic front, it is reasonable to assume that crony capitalism will expand with renewed vigour. As it is, Malaysia is the only Asian country which rose from the ashes of the Asian Crisis without having its cronyistic wings clipped. The other Asian countries who fell during the Crisis (Thailand, South Korea and Indonesia) have already carried out various degree of such reforms and have exhibited significant turn around, with the possible exception of Indonesia which is struggling to extricate itself from its current socio-political turmoil. Malaysia is therefore the only country bucking the reform trend that is sweeping the Crisis affected countries now.
In fact, in Malaysian Government�s current program of accelerated spending, there has been a proliferation of contracts and projects handed out non-transparently and without tenders, ostensibly to speed up the pace of economic development, but in reality to step up money politics. Without genuine reforms, it takes only another catalyst at another opportune time to re-ignite another economic crisis.
Re-invigorated crony capitalism under an increasing autocratic ruler is a sure ticket to an Indonesian style implosion of economic collapse and political chaos. In such a situation, there is no guarantee that Malaysian Chinese will not suffer the same fate as the Indonesian Chinese, particularly when the Malaysian Chinese have contributed to the precipitation of such a situation with their votes of fear.
We should now look at Scenario 2: A strong opposition comprising PAS, DAP, Keadilan and PRM.
STRONGER OPPOSITION
The emergence of Keadilan as a creditable political force will have great historical and political significance, for it represents a watershed in the political development of Malaysia.
The unshakable grip of power by the UMNO led coalition in the past 42 years since Merdeka has been due to one main factor: the solidarity of Malays under UMNO which acts as protector and promoter of Malay interests. UMNO is synonymous with Malay Destiny. In the early days of our Independence, most Malays stayed in the backwaters of the national economy. However, their high degree of political consciousness and acumen saw them successfully struggling through the past decades to emerge on par with the other races in economic and educational fields.
The political struggles of Malays up till now have been pure and simple: support UMNO to ensure that Malays as a racial group, survive, excel and prosper in this Country. On the other end of the political spectrum is DAP which gives expression to Chinese discontent arising from pro-Malay policies in commerce, education and other aspects of national life. These realities dictate that the substance of politics in Malaysia for the past 3 decades has been 90% racial politics. Such racial politics also explain the phenomenon that whatever scandals befall UMNO leaders, UMNO has always been returned in elections with absolute power.
However, this simple political formula was destined to change. The impact of the Asian Crisis, which caused immense misery to Malaysians, has awakened the educated Malays to the importance of other criteria to their economic well being. Monolithic support to UMNO would no longer solve the Malay problems. Malaysia must address the ills of the Crisis. UMNO must go for good governance.
Inspired by the Indonesian Reformasi movement which toppled the once mighty Suharto, symbol of cronyism, UMNO Youth sounded the first battle cry to rid Malaysia of the same 3 Ks (corruption, cronyism and nepotism). Though that battle cry ended with Anwar in prison, the flame of reforms has been lit. A new generation of Malays has broken free of the chains that shackled Malays to the bond of UMNO�s racial struggles.
From now on, politics will cut across racial lines to prioritise issues like corruption, abuse of power, violation of Constitution and human rights, independence of democratic institutions and civil liberties. Politics will stretch beyond racial squabbles to encompass other important issues that address the current fast pace of IT age and globalisation. These will include new and evolving strategies in education, industries, agriculture, environment, culture and racial integration. Leadership qualities will have to include honesty, integrity and moral fibre as important criteria.
An expanded opposition, with each party endorsed by convincing multi-racial electoral support will send a strong signal to all Malaysians that the BN model of racial divide and rule hegemony is on the way out. Malays will no longer give blind allegiance to UMNO leaders. Corrupt and mediocre leaders may not survive the heightened scrutiny of the electorate.
A rejuvenated opposition will bring vitality and meaning back to Parliament, which is now in danger of being regarded as a defunct institution, through years of abuse by BN�s hegemony and arrogance. Mahathir will be forced to curtail his grandiose ambitions and allow more rationality to prevail in economic planning and strategies. Strong opposition in Parliament will discourage future abusive legislation and will also prevent current rampant corruption and cronyism from going out of control. In short, a better balance of power between the opposition and the governing party will enable the mechanism of democracy (whatever is left) to function better, resulting in a more responsive and responsible government.
Apart from the fear of Islamic State and political chaos, two more stumbling blocks are discouraging the Chinese from supporting the Alternative Front. These are the image of Anwar and the notion that the Alternative Front lacks leaders.
IMAGE OF ANWAR
Conversations with the ordinary Chinese men in the street reveal that Anwar and Mahathir evoke quite different image in the Chinese psyche. Whereas most Chinese feel comfortable and reassuring towards Mahathir, they show general dislike to Anwar. It is easy to understand Mahathir�s popularity. After years of daily exposure to Mahathir�s smiling face in TVs, it is hard for any common folk not to feel friendly and trusting towards him, unless he is a shrewd political observer or political opponent. The rapport Mahathir built up with China over the years has endeared him well with the ordinary Chinese family. As for Anwar, the outdated image of him as an Islamic and Malay extremist seems to have stuck to many Chinese minds.
While Anwar displayed extremism in his early days as UMNO Youth Leader and to lesser extent later on as Agriculture Minister, he has mellowed and broadened his outlook and perspective very considerably during the last few years. So much so that he has been held in high esteem as an outstanding leader of the new generation by world leaders in politics, finance and religion. (Incidentally, talking about extremism, didn�t Mahathir project a even more extreme image as a Malay extremist in 1969?)
Image aside, the truth about Anwar is that he is eminently qualified to lead Malaysia into the next Millennium. His corruption-free record as Minister of Finance for many years is the most eloquent testimony to his integrity. His compassion with the have-nots has won him the hearts of ordinary Malays, and his devotion to his religion has left indelible impression to Muslims here and abroad.
His political handicap at this point in time is that in his contribution to the economic uplift of the Malay middle and lower middle classes, the Chinese community had felt no part of it. But then, this is the reality of life under BN�s New Economic Policy. For that matter, how many BN Ministers (including MCA Ministers) have stretched out their hands to help the Chinese have-nots with Government resources?
For the sake of a better Malaysia, every politically enlightened Chinese must give a helping hand to the politically less conscious Chinese by updating Anwar�s image. This effort is important, as continued negative image of Anwar in the Chinese psyche may frustrate Alternative Front�s endeavour to alter Malaysia�s political landscape.
ALTERNATIVE FRONT LACKS LEADERS?
In any contest for public office, the incumbent has one automatic advantage: he is well known while the challenger is generally not. The human mind is such that fame is often equated with good leadership. The other automatic handicap of the challenger is that he is often not preferred because he is “not tested” or he “lacks experience”.
Therein lie the common errors of judgement in the selection of leadership, especially in a country like Malaysia, where the mass media is extensively abused to boost up the public image of governing leaders. Most BN Ministers have been in their present positions for more than a decade. The public is so accustomed to seeing them in the media that it tends to get alarmed if all of them were to be replaced by new faces. The first question that comes to the mind is: are the new men capable of handling these jobs?
Without dropping names, I can confidently say that there are sufficient good people in the Alternative Front with higher integrity and calibre to replace all the BN Ministers. The unhealthy political environment in the past years has discouraged many honest talents from entering politics. Many a capable person has turned down BN offers on moral ground. The same person is unwilling to join the opposition for fear of victimisation in his profession or business. This pent up pool of talents of various disciplines from all walks of life are available to the call of leadership once the opportunity arises.
As it is, the noble call of the Alternative Front to re-instate democracy and good governance in this Country has already attracted many to join their ranks. Many more will come forward, if they are encouraged to do so by the people of Malaysia through their endorsement of the Alternative Front in the coming Election.
CONCLUDING REMARKS
Never before have we been given such a good opportunity to turn over a new leaf of life for this young Nation. Malaysians irrespective of race and status must not let this opportunity be slipped through their fingers. An error in judgement in this Election may condemn Malaysia to suffer the current fate (or worse) for many years to come.
To the Chinese who have moaned of discriminatory treatment and corrupt government, and have voted in vain for DAP in the past, the chance of a lifetime has arrived. This is the moment when their votes can be most influential. Unlike in the past, their coming votes will be pivotal in determining the fate of Malaysia.
Voting for the Alternative Front does not mean voting for DAP only. It also means voting for PAS, Keadilan and PRM. Only through voting for all Alternative Front members will the votes be effective enough to bring about the changes that we are hoping for.
Let future generations of Malaysians look back at this moment in our history and say, it is the finest moment of this generation when Malaysians of all races finally started the building of a truly Malaysian Nation.
Kim Quek