The 2004 Stolen Election: A Factual Summary

TruthIsAll

 

Statistical analysis provides compelling evidence that the 2004 election was stolen.

But mention normal distribution or margin of error to most people and eyes glaze over.

This is an overview which will explain why election fraud cost Kerry the election.

 

To provide context, let’s review the 2000 election.

There were 122.3 million recorded votes.

Al Gore won the official vote by a 540,000 margin.

But according to the U.S, Census, 110.8m total votes were cast.

Approximately 5.4 million votes were uncounted.

 

That was nothing new; millions of mostly Democratic votes are never counted in every election.

Approximately 4 million uncounted votes were for Gore.

Therefore, Gore’s True Vote margin was over 3 million.

 

Gore voters had every reason to believe that the election was stolen in Florida.

But the Supreme Court voted 5-4 to abort the recount.

 

Now let’s move on to 2004.

Former Gore voters knew the 2000 election was stolen and were determined to vote Bush out.

Almost 3 million Nader voters were motivated as well.

This time they would vote for Kerry.

 

Democratic new voter registration far exceeded that of the GOP.

The Democratic GOTV effort dwarfed that of the Republicans.

 

Bush had a 48% approval rating.

His monthly approval ratings were highly correlated to the national polls.

 

A powerful combination of former Gore, Nader and new voters was fueled by low Bush approval.

 

The aggregate state pre-election poll average closely matched the national polls.

The monthly polling trend indicated a tight election.

Kerry had a small lead until September.

In October, the trend reverted back to Kerry.

 

The final polls indicated the election was essentially tied.

But was it, really?

About 6% of voters were undecided a few days before the election.

Pollsters assign a solid majority of undecided voters to the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular.

It stands to reason: Why would voters be undecided if they were satisfied with the incumbent?

Undecided voters were expected to break for Kerry.

He could expect to win by a 2.5 - 3.0% margin.

 

The final pre-election state and national polls reflected the facts:

a) Bush was unpopular

b) Former Nader voters were switching to Kerry

c) Gore voters were anxious to right the wrongs of 2000

d) New Democratic voter registration far exceeded that of the Republicans.

 

Election Day arrived with evidence of a tremendous voter turnout.

All indications were that Kerry was a clear winner.

Media pundits reported that it looked positive for Kerry.

The Iowa election trading markets reflected the Kerry surge.

 

State exit poll screen shots were downloaded from the Internet.

Kerry led the National Exit Poll from 4pm to 12:22am by a steady 51-48%.

He was leading in states with over 300 electoral votes.

 

But the vote counts suddenly turned in Bush’s favor.

Exit polls in Ohio and Florida followed suit.

There were significant changes from earlier exit polls.

 

Kerry’s 51-48 lead in the National Exit Poll was reversed

Bush was declared the winner by 3 million votes, 51-48%.

The exit polls were off by 6% nationally.

The Final Exit Poll, issued at 1am EST, was matched to the vote count.

 

Controversy raged on the Internet.

Spreadsheet bloggers presented detailed analyses.

 

Pre-election and exit polls indicated that the probability of a Bush win was near zero.

The probabilities were calculated using several different methods:

1) state pre-election polls: a Monte Carlo simulation determined Kerry’s electoral vote win probability

1) state exit polls: the number of states in which the discrepancy exceeded the margin of error.

2) national exit poll: deviation from the official vote share.

 

It wasn’t until January 2005 that pollsters Edison-Mitofsky released their Exit Poll Evaluation Report.

The report confirmed the following:

a)      The average precinct exit poll discrepancy (WPE) from the vote was 6.5%

b)      The discrepancy exceeded 6% in 25 states – all in favor of Bush

c)       Bush made his biggest gains from 2000 in Democratic urban locations

d)      His vote shares declined slightly in Republican small towns and rural areas

e)      Paper ballot precincts had by far the lowest error rates (2%)

f)        Optical scanners and electronic voting machines had (6-7%) error rates

g)      Mechanical punched cards and levers (11%) had the highest rates  

 

Nevertheless, Edison-Mitofsky claimed their sampling design was flawless.

They said the reason for the discrepancies was disproportionate exit poll response.

They hypothesized that 56 Kerry voters responded for every 50 Bush voters.

 

But the Reluctant Bush Responder (rBr) theory was at variance with data provided by E-M.

The Final National Exit Poll indicated that 7 million more Bush 2000 voters came to vote than Gore voters.

According to the Final, 43% (52.6m) of the 2004 electorate were Bush 2000 voters.

But Bush only had 50.5m votes in 2000.

Approximately 2.5m died and another 2.5m did not vote.

Therefore, only 45.5m (not 52.5m) Bush 2000 voters returned to vote in 2004.

 

	The 2004 Election Model: Final Projection Summary
			Projection			Elec. Vote		2-party %		Win Prob
			Kerry			337		51.80		99.9
			Bush			201		48.20		0.1
						Monte Carlo Simulation
						State EV Model
	Undecided%		Allocation					BaseCase
	Kerry		60%			67%		75%		80%		87%
	Trial  Wins		4901			4972		4995		4997		4999
	Projected%
	Kerry		51.02			51.38		51.80		52.07		52.43
	Bush		48.98			48.62		48.20		47.93		47.57
	Win Prob%
	Kerry		98.02			99.44		99.90		99.94		99.98
	Bush		1.98			0.56		0.1		0.06		0.02
	Electoral Vote
	Average		320			328		337		343		352
	Median		322			329		338		345		353
	Maximum		379			388		399		405		412
	Minimum		211			237		223		243		254
	95% Conf. Interval
	Upper Limit		361			368		376		382		389
	Lower Limit		278			288		298		305		315
	National 18-Polls
	Vote%		50.73			51.15		51.63		51.92		52.34
	Prob%		97.6			99.9		100.0		100.0		100.0
	States Won		26			27		27		28		30
	2004 Election Model: Pre-election State Polls, Projections and Exit Polls
						Final		Vote		Final		Poll		Projected		Exit Poll		EP-Vote		EP-Proj		Exit Poll		Kerry		Kerry		Proj-EP <	Proj-vote >	WPE>
	State		EV			Kerry		Bush		Kerry		Bush		Kerry		Kerry		Diff		Diff		WPE		Proj EV		EP EV		2.0	2.0	6.0
	Average		538			48.3		50.7		47.7		47.0		51.0		51.8		3.6		0.8		7.1		331		325		21	33	25
	AL		9			36.8		62.5		39		57		41.3		42.5		5.7		1.2		11.3						yes	yes	yes	AL
	AK		3			35.5		61.1		30		57		39.0		40.3		4.8		1.3		9.6						yes	yes	yes	AK
	AZ		10			44.4		54.9		45		50		48.0		46.7		2.3		(1.3)		4.6						yes	yes		AZ
	AR		6			44.5		54.3		46		48		49.8		44.8		0.3		(5.0)		0.5		6					yes		AR
	CA		55			54.3		44.4		49		42		55.0		59.8		5.5		4.8		10.9		55		55				yes	CA
	CO		9			47.0		51.7		47		48		50.0		50.1		3.1		0.1		6.1		9		9		yes	yes	yes	CO
	CT		7			54.3		43.9		52		42		55.8		62.2		7.9		6.4		15.7		7		7				yes	CT
	DC		3			89.2		9.3		78		11		85.5		90.9		1.7		5.4		3.4		3		3					DC
	DE		3			53.3		45.8		45		38		57.0		61.3		8.0		4.3		15.9		3		3			yes	yes	DE
	FL		27			47.1		52.1		50		47		51.5		50.9		3.8		(0.6)		7.6		27		27		yes	yes	yes	FL
	GA		15			41.4		58.0		42		52		45.8		42.5		1.1		(3.3)		2.2							yes		GA
	HI		4			54.0		45.3		45		45		51.8		56.4		2.4		4.6		4.7		4		4					HI
	ID		4			30.3		68.4		30		59		37.5		30.8		0.5		(6.7)		1.0							yes		ID
	IL		21			54.8		44.5		54		42		56.3		57.0		2.2		0.8		4.4		21		21		yes			IL
	IN		11			39.3		59.9		39		58		40.5		40.0		0.8		(0.5)		1.5						yes			IN
	IA		7			49.2		49.9		50		44		53.8		50.7		1.5		(3.0)		3.0		7		7			yes		IA
	KS		6			36.6		62.0		37		60		38.5		37.5		0.9		(1.0)		1.7						yes			KS
	KY		8			39.7		59.6		39		56		42.0		39.6		(0.0)		(2.4)		(0.1)							yes		KY
	LA		9			42.2		56.7		40		48		48.3		44.1		1.9		(4.1)		3.8							yes		LA
	ME		4			53.6		44.6		50		39		57.5		55.5		1.9		(2.0)		3.8		4		4			yes		ME
	MD		10			55.9		42.9		54		43		55.5		60.0		4.1		4.5		8.1		10		10				yes	MD
	MA		12			61.9		36.8		64		27		70.0		64.8		2.9		(5.2)		5.8		12		12			yes		MA
	MI		17			51.2		47.8		52		45		53.5		54.4		3.2		0.9		6.3		17		17		yes	yes	yes	MI
	MN		10			51.1		47.6		52		44		54.3		55.7		4.7		1.5		9.3		10		10		yes	yes	yes	MN
	MS		6			40.2		59.0		42		51		46.5		45.8		5.7		(0.7)		11.3						yes	yes	yes	MS
	MO		11			46.1		53.3		44		49		48.5		49.0		2.9		0.5		5.8						yes	yes		MO
	MT		3			38.6		59.1		36		57		40.5		37.7		(0.9)		(2.8)		(1.8)									MT
	NE		5			32.7		65.9		32		61		36.5		36.7		4.1		0.2		8.1						yes	yes	yes	NE
	NV		5			47.9		50.5		49		49		49.8		52.9		5.1		3.2		10.1		5		5				yes	NV
	NH		4			50.2		48.9		47		47		50.8		57.0		6.8		6.3		13.6		4		4				yes	NH
	NJ		15			52.9		46.2		50		42		55.3		57.8		4.9		2.5		9.7		15		15			yes	yes	NJ
	NM		5			49.0		49.8		49		49		49.8		52.9		3.9		3.2		7.8		5		5				yes	NM
	NY		31			58.4		40.1		57		39		59.3		64.1		5.7		4.8		11.4		31		31				yes	NY
	NC		15			43.6		56.0		47		50		48.5		49.2		5.7		0.7		11.3						yes	yes	yes	NC
	ND		3			35.5		62.9		35		55		41.8		32.9		(2.6)		(8.9)		(5.2)							yes		ND
	OH		20			48.7		50.8		50		47		51.5		54.2		5.5		2.7		10.9		20		20			yes	yes	OH
	OK		7			34.4		65.6		28		61		35.5		33.5		(1.0)		(2.0)		(1.9)									OK
	OR		7			51.3		47.2		50		44		53.8		53.0		1.7		(0.8)		1.8		7		7		yes	yes		OR
	PA		21			50.9		48.4		50		45		53.0		55.3		4.4		2.3		8.8		21		21			yes	yes	PA
	RI		4			59.4		38.7		56		36		61.3		61.8		2.4		0.5		4.7		4		4		yes			RI
	SC		8			40.9		58.0		42		55		43.5		45.9		5.0		2.4		10.0							yes	yes	SC
	SD		3			38.4		59.9		42		52		45.8		36.3		(2.1)		(9.4)		(4.2)							yes		SD
	TN		11			42.5		56.8		47		50		48.5		42.8		0.3		(5.7)		0.5							yes		TN
	TX		34			38.2		61.1		37		59		39.3		40.6		2.4		1.4		4.8						yes			TX
	UT		5			26.0		71.5		24		69		28.5		29.2		3.2		0.7		6.4						yes	yes	yes	UT
	VT		3			58.9		38.8		53		40		57.5		66.4		7.5		8.9		15.0		3		3				yes	VT
	VA		13			45.5		53.7		47		51		47.8		49.4		4.0		1.7		7.9						yes	yes	yes	VA
	WA		11			52.8		45.6		52		44		54.3		57.0		4.2		2.8		8.4		11		11				yes	WA
	WV		5			43.2		56.1		45		49		48.8		40.3		(2.9)		(8.5)		(5.8)							yes		WV
	WI		10			49.7		49.3		51		44		54.0		52.0		2.4		(2.0)		4.7		10		10		yes	yes		WI
	WY		3			29.1		68.9		29		65		32.8		31.2		2.2		(1.5)		4.3						yes	yes		WY
		National Model											75% UVA		projection		5-proj moving avg				2-pty proj moving avg
				Poll	Size		Poll		Kerry		Bush		Kerry		Bush		Kerry		Bush		Kerry		Bush		Diff
		Average		Date	1720		Type		47.3		46.9		50.9		48.1		51.3		47.8		51.8		48.2		3.5
		Harris		2-Nov	5508		LV		50		47		51.5		47.5		51.3		47.8		51.8		48.2		3.5
		Zogby		2-Nov	1200		LV		47		48		50.0		49.0		51.1		48.0		51.6		48.4		3.1
		Marist		1-Nov	1166		LV		49		48		50.5		48.5		51.6		47.5		52.1		47.9		4.1
		Econ		1-Nov	2903		RV		49		45		52.8		46.3		51.7		47.4		52.2		47.8		4.3
		TIPP		1-Nov	1284		LV		44		45		51.5		47.5		51.5		47.6		52.0		48.0		3.9
		CBS		1-Nov	1125		RV		46		47		50.5		48.5		51.2		47.9		51.7		48.3		3.3
		FOX		31-Oct	1400		RV		48		45		52.5		46.5		51.3		47.8		51.8		48.2		3.5
		Dem Corp		31-Oct	1018		LV		48		47		51.0		48.0		50.9		48.2		51.4		48.6		2.7
		Gallup		31-Oct	1866		RV		48		46		51.8		47.3		51.1		48.0		51.6		48.4		3.1
		NBC		31-Oct	1014		LV		47		48		50.0		49.0		50.6		48.4		51.1		48.9		2.2
		ABC		31-Oct	3511		RV		48		47		51.0		48.0		50.8		48.3		51.3		48.7		2.5
		ARG		30-Oct	1258		LV		49		48		50.5		48.5		50.8		48.3		51.3		48.7		2.5
		Pew		30-Oct	2408		RV		46		45		52.0		47.0		50.2		48.9		50.7		49.3		1.3
		Nwk		29-Oct	1005		RV		45		48		49.5		49.5		50.2		48.9		50.7		49.3		1.3
		ICR		26-Oct	817		RV		44		46		50.8		48.3		na		na		na		na		na
		LAT		24-Oct	1698		RV		48		47		51.0		48.0		na		na		na		na		na
		Time		21-Oct	803		LV		46		51		47.5		51.5		na		na		na		na		na
		AP		20-Oct	976		LV		49		46		52.0		47.0		na		na		na		na		na