The 2008 Election Calculator:
A Preliminary Projection and Post-election analysis
May 23, 2008
Updated Dec. 30, 2008
On May 23, the 2008 Election Calculator projected that Obama would win in a landslide: 71-59m (54.1-44.7%). The projection was based on the candidate’s share of returning 2004 voters and those who did not vote in 2004. The analysis is based on an estimate of total votes cast (including uncounted), but millions of (mostly Democratic) disenfranchised “caged” voters will never get to the polls. If they were allowed to vote, the landslide would be significantly greater than the projected 12 million vote margin.
But the official
Recorded Vote never reflects the True Vote. Accordingly, we can expect that
Obama’s recorded margin will be lower. The
landslide will be denied due to election fraud, just like it was in the 2006
midterms when the Democrats won 10-20 more seats than official results
indicate.
Obama is expected to do better than Kerry did among blacks, Hispanics, new voters, moderate Republicans and Independents, but may not do as well with white Democrats. There is no reason to believe that 2008 will be any different than 2000 and 2004. At least 3% of total votes cast will be uncounted and 75-80% will be Obama’s.
Only massive election
fraud can prevent Obama from winning the presidency.
__________________________________________________________________________
Post-election update:
Obama won the official
vote by 9.5 million, 69.46-59.94m (52.87-45.62%). The Election Calculator indicated that the True Vote was
77.9-55.3m (57.1-40.8%). The model used the Final 2008 National Exit Poll vote
shares, but with a return voter mix based on the 2004 aggregate state exit poll
(Kerry by 52-47%) adjusted for voter mortality (4.8%), uncounted votes (3%) and
a 95% turnout of 2004 voters in 2008. The 2008 NEP 46/37% Bush/Kerry returning
voter split was not only implausible- it was impossible. It implied that
approximately 4 million more Bush voters turned out in 2008 than were still
living.
Download the 2008 Election Calculator (Excel) to run your own scenarios
2008 Projected True Vote
(May 23, 2008)
Estimated vote share
2004 Turnout Voted Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV - 17.2 13.1% 59% 40% 1%
Kerry 95% 60.5 46.2% 89% 10% 1%
Bush 95% 51.6 39.4% 11% 88% 1%
Other 95% 1.6 1.2% 70% 11% 19%
Total 113.7 130.9 100% 54.1% 44.7% 1.2%
130.9 70.8 58.5
1.6
Calculated True Vote (Dec
25, 2008)
The 2008 NEP indicated that Obama did significantly better than projected with new (+12%) and returning Bush voters (+6%)
2008 Final NEP
2004 Turnout Voted Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV - 21.71 16.0% 71% 27% 2%
Kerry 95% 59.13 43.7% 89% 9% 2%
Bush 95% 53.44 39.5% 17% 82% 1%
Other 95% 1.14 0.84% 66% 24% 10%
Total 113.7 131.37 100% 57.1% 40.8% 1.2%
True Vote
131.37 77.9 55.3
2.3
Recorded
Vote 131.37 69.46 59.94 1.98
100%
52.87% 45.62% 1.51%
The Final 2008
National Exit Poll indicates that returning Bush
2004 voters comprised 46% (60.4m) of the 131.37m voters in 2008. Bush had 62.0
million recorded votes in 2004. Approximately 3.0m (4.8%) died; there were
59.0m potential 2008 voters. Assuming that
3.0m did not vote, the Final indicates there were 4 million more returning Bush
voters than could have voted.
If the 2004 unadjusted
state exit polls are to be believed, Kerry won by 52-47% (63.6-57.5m). Assuming a 5% voter mortality rate, 54.6m
Bush voters were alive in 2008. If 95% (51.9m) voted in 2008, that’s an 8.5m vote
discrepancy from the 2008 Final NEP.
Like the 2004 Final, the
2008 Final is also impossible. And because it was forced to match the recorded
vote, the 2008 recorded vote must also have been impossible.
The Final NEP indicates that returning Kerry
voters comprised just 37% (48.4m) of the 2008 electorate. Kerry had 59.0
million recorded votes in 2004. Since approximately 2.8m died, 48.4m of 56.2m
(86%) living Kerry voters returned to vote in 2008. How could there have been 11.7 million more returning
Bush voters than Kerry voters when Bush won by just 3.0m votes? One would expect that Kerry voters would be more motivated to vote for
Obama than Bush voters for McCain.
The Final indicates that
other (third-party) 2004 voters comprised 4% of the 2008 electorate – another
impossibility. There were only 1.22m third party voters in 2004 (1% of the
total).
The impossible
46/37 Bush/Kerry returning voter mix in the Final 2008 NEP is nothing new. The
2004 Final reported a 43/37 Bush/Gore returning voter share of the 2004
electorate. But the Bush 43% share was
also mathematically and physically impossible since it meant that Bush
had 52.6 million votes in 2000; but he had just 50.5m and approximately 2.5
million died. Therefore, only 48m former Bush voters were alive in 2004. The
2004 Final overstated the number of returning Bush 2000 voters by more than 4.5
million.
Final 2008 National Exit Poll
2004 returning voter mix forced to match the
recorded 2008 vote using an impossible mix of returning 2004 voters
|
Implied |
2004 |
Total |
Mix |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
|
Vote |
DNV |
17.08 |
13% |
71% |
27% |
2% |
12.1 |
4.6 |
0.3 |
|
42.5% |
Kerry |
48.61 |
37% |
89% |
9% |
2% |
43.3 |
4.4 |
1.0 |
|
52.9% |
Bush |
60.43 |
46% |
17% |
82% |
1% |
10.3 |
49.6 |
0.6 |
|
4.6% |
Other |
5.25 |
4% |
66% |
24% |
10% |
3.5 |
1.3 |
0.5 |
|
114.3 |
Total |
131.37 |
100% |
52.62% |
45.52% |
1.86% |
69.13 |
59.80 |
2.44 |
2008 Election Calculator – a plausible return voter mix
The model also used Final
2008 NEP vote shares but not the impossible NEP return voter mix.
The first scenario used the recorded 2004 vote to determine the returning voter mix (Bush won by 50.73-48.27%).
Obama won this (unlikely)
scenario by 17.6 million votes – an 8 million increase over his recorded
margin.
The second scenario used the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (Kerry by 52-47%).
Obama won this (most
likely) scenario by 22.6 million - a 13 million increase over his recorded
margin.
In 2004, the difference between the calculated vote and recorded vote margin was 13 million. Kerry lost the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3m. The Election Calculator determined that he won the True Vote by 67-57m. A feasible returning voter mix was based on a 2000 voter annual mortality rate of 1.2% and an assumed 95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004. The 12:22am NEP vote shares were used rather than the Final because the Bush shares were also inflated in the Final (along with the Bush returning voter mix) to force a match to the recorded vote.
Scenario 1: Adjusted
2004 returning voter mix based on 2004 recorded vote and
2004 voters: 3.45
million uncounted (2.74%), 4.8% mortality, 95% turnout; 3.0% uncounted in 2008
a) Obama wins by 17.6m: 75.4-57.8 (55.7-42.7%) assuming 4.0m uncounted
votes (3.0% of 135.4m cast).
b) Obama wins by 15.8m: 72.5-56.7 (55.2-43.1%) assuming no uncounted
votes.
|
Recorded |
2004 |
Total |
Mix |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
|
Vote |
DNV |
21.71 |
16.0% |
71% |
27% |
2% |
15.4 |
5.9 |
0.4 |
|
48.27% |
Kerry |
55.72 |
41.1% |
89% |
9% |
2% |
49.6 |
5.0 |
1.1 |
|
50.73% |
Bush |
56.86 |
42.0% |
17% |
82% |
1% |
9.7 |
46.6 |
0.6 |
|
1.00% |
Other |
1.14 |
0.8% |
66% |
24% |
10% |
0.8 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
|
|
Total |
135.43 |
100.0% |
55.69% |
42.66% |
1.65% |
75.43 |
57.77 |
2.23 |
Scenario 2: Adjusted
2004 returning voter mix based on 2004 unadjusted exit poll and
2004 voters: 3.45
million uncounted (2.74%), 4.8% mortality, 95% turnout; 3.0% uncounted in 2008
a) Obama wins by 22.6m: 77.9-55.3 (57.5-40.8%) assuming 4.0m uncounted
votes.
b) Obama wins by 20.8m: 75.0-54.2 (57.1-41.3%) assuming no uncounted
votes.
|
2004 Unadj. |
2004 |
Total |
Mix |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
|
Exit Poll |
DNV |
21.71 |
16.0% |
71% |
27% |
2% |
15.4 |
5.9 |
0.43 |
|
52.0% |
Kerry |
59.13 |
43.7% |
89% |
9% |
2% |
52.6 |
5.3 |
1.18 |
|
47.0% |
Bush |
53.44 |
39.5% |
17% |
82% |
1% |
9.1 |
43.8 |
0.53 |
|
1.0% |
Other |
1.14 |
0.8% |
66% |
24% |
10% |
0.8 |
0.3 |
0.11 |
|
|
Total |
135.43 |
100% |
57.51% |
40.82% |
1.67% |
77.88 |
55.28 |
2.27 |
2004 Calculated True Vote
Bush won the recorded vote by 62-59m (50.7-48.3%). The Election Calculator determined that Kerry won the True Vote by 67-57m (53.2-45.4%). Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 52.1-46.9% and the adjusted 12:22am National Exit Poll by 50.8-48.2%. The analysis was based on NEP vote shares applied to estimates of returning 2000 voters. The Census reported that 125.7m total votes were cast as opposed to the 122.3m recorded. Approximately 2.5m of the 3.4m uncounted votes were for Kerry. Investigative reporter Greg Palast provided government records which indicated the actual number of provisional, absentee and spoiled ballots which comprised the 3.0m total.
12:22am Composite NEP
2000 Turnout Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV - 25.6 20.4% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 95% 49.7 39.5% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 95% 46.6 37.1% 10% 90% 0%
Other 95% 3.8 3.0% 64% 17% 19%
Total 100.1 125.7 100% 53.2% 45.4% 1.4%
125.7 66.9 57.1 1.7
Recorded 122.3 59.0 62.0 1.2
48.3% 50.7% 1.0%
Unadjusted Exit Poll 52.1% 46.9% 1.0%
True Vote Discrepancy -1.1% 1.5% -0.4%
Al Gore won the recorded vote by 51.0-50.5m (48.4-47.9%). The Election Calculator determined that Gore won the True Vote by 55.3-51.4m (49.9-46.4%) which closely matched his 49.4% unadjusted aggregate state exit poll share. The U.S. Census reported that 110.8m total votes were cast but only 105.4m were recorded. If not for the 5.4m uncounted votes, Gore’s margin would have exceeded 3 million. In Florida, 185,000 spoiled ballots (not including absentees and provisionals) cost Gore 120,000 votes. He won the state by a minimum of 60,000 votes, but Bush won the recorded vote by 537.
Final NEP vote share
1996 Turnout Voted Mix Gore Bush Other
DNV - 15.0 13.5% 52% 43% 5%
Clinton 96% 49.3 44.5% 86% 11% 3%
Dole 96% 37.3 33.7% 7% 91% 2%
Other 96% 9.2 8.3% 27% 61% 12%
Total 95.8 110.8 100% 49.9% 46.4% 3.7%
110.8 55.3
51.4 4.1
Recorded
(actual) 105.4 51.0 50.5 3.9
48.4% 47.9% 3.7%
Unadjusted
Exit Poll 49.4% 46.9% 3.7%
True Vote
Discrepancy
-0.5% + 0.5% -0.0%