The Final 2008 National Exit Poll Does Not Compute: Obama
doubled the recorded vote margin
Jan. 17, 2009
The Final 2008
National Exit Poll does not compute - again. The landslide was
denied.
This analysis will show
why Obama’s True Vote margin must be significantly higher than the 9.46 million
(69.46-59.94m) recorded.
The Final National Exit
Poll is always forced
to match the recorded vote. The Final 2008 NEP “Voted 2004” returning voter
mix (46 Bush/37 Kerry) is
mathematically impossible since it implies that returning Bush 2004 voters
comprised 46% (60.4m) of the 131.37m total 2008 recorded vote. Bush had 62.0 million recorded votes. Since
approximately 3.0m died, there were 59.0m potential 2008 voters. Assuming that
95% (56 of 59m) voted in 2008, then the Final 2008 NEP overstated the number of
returning Bush voters by over 4 million. Therefore, since the returning voter
mix is not possible and the Final was forced to match the recorded vote, the
recorded 2008 vote must also be impossible. The NEP also overstated the number
of returning third-party voters by an inexplicable 4 million. There were 1.2m
third-party voters in 2004; the NEP indicated that they comprised 4% (5.2m) of
the 2008 electorate. The following analysis shows that the 3% (4m) difference
should be applied to new voters. The NEP indicates that 13% were new – but that
is 3% too low.
The 2008
Election Model (EM), which was based on the final state and national polls,
matched the 365-173 recorded electoral vote projection with 365.3 expected EV.
Obama’s projected 53.1- 44.9% vote share
(assuming he captured 60% of late undecided voters) was very close to
the recorded 52.86-45.7% share. His projected share was 53.8% with 379 expected
EV (assuming he had 75% of the undecided vote). The final state pre-election polls were conducted 1 or more days
prior to Election Day – so they could have missed a late Obama surge.
Final 2008 National Exit
Poll
2004 returning voter
mix forced to match the 2008 recorded vote
Obama margin: 9.3m
|
Implied |
2004 |
Total |
Mix |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
|
Vote |
DNV |
17.08 |
13% |
71% |
27% |
2% |
12.1 |
4.6 |
0.3 |
|
42.5% |
Kerry |
48.61 |
37% |
89% |
9% |
2% |
43.3 |
4.4 |
1.0 |
|
52.9% |
Bush |
60.43 |
46% |
17% |
82% |
1% |
10.3 |
49.6 |
0.6 |
|
4.6% |
Other |
5.25 |
4% |
66% |
24% |
10% |
3.5 |
1.3 |
0.5 |
|
114.3 |
Total |
131.37 |
100% |
52.62% |
45.52% |
1.86% |
69.13 |
59.80 |
2.44 |
2008 Election Calculator – calculating the returning voter
mix
The Election
Calculator used Final 2008 NEP vote shares and adjusted
the 2004 recorded vote to determine a plausible returning voter mix.
The first scenario used the recorded 2004 vote to
determine the returning voter mix (Bush won by 50.73-48.27%).
Obama won this (unlikely)
scenario by 17.6 million votes – an 8.5 million increase over his recorded
margin.
The second scenario used
the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (Kerry by 52-47%).
Obama won this (most
likely) scenario by 22.6 million - a 13 million increase over his recorded
margin.
In 2004, the difference between the calculated vote and
recorded vote margin was also 13 million. Kerry lost the recorded vote by
51-48m. The Election Calculator determined that he won the True Vote by
67-57m. A feasible returning voter mix
was based on a 2000 voter annual mortality rate of 1.2% and an assumed 95%
turnout of 2000 voters in 2004. The 12:22am NEP vote shares were used rather
than the Final because the Bush shares were also inflated in the Final (along
with the Bush returning voter mix) to force a match to the recorded vote.
These Final
2008 NEP Scenarios based on a plausible returning voter mix and these
assumptions:
In 2004, there were 3.45m
uncounted votes, 6 million died (1.2% annual mortality), 113.7m returning 2004
voters (95% turnout).
Scenario 1: Adjusted 2004 returning voter mix based on 2004
recorded vote and
2004 voters: 3.45 million uncounted (2.74%), 4.8% mortality,
95% turnout; 3.0% uncounted in 2008
a) Obama wins by 17.6m:
75.4-57.8 (55.7-42.7%) assuming 4.0m uncounted votes (3.0% of 135.4m cast).
b) Obama wins by 15.8m:
72.5-56.7 (55.2-43.1%) assuming no uncounted votes.
|
Recorded |
2004 |
Total |
Mix |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
|
Vote |
DNV |
21.71 |
16.0% |
71% |
27% |
2% |
15.4 |
5.9 |
0.4 |
|
48.27% |
Kerry |
55.72 |
41.1% |
89% |
9% |
2% |
49.6 |
5.0 |
1.1 |
|
50.73% |
Bush |
56.86 |
42.0% |
17% |
82% |
1% |
9.7 |
46.6 |
0.6 |
|
1.00% |
Other |
1.14 |
0.8% |
66% |
24% |
10% |
0.8 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
|
|
Total |
135.43 |
100.0% |
55.69% |
42.66% |
1.65% |
75.43 |
57.77 |
2.23 |
Scenario 2: Adjusted 2004 returning voter mix based on 2004
unadjusted exit poll and
2004 voters: 3.45 million uncounted (2.74%), 4.8% mortality,
95% turnout; 3.0% uncounted in 2008
a)
Obama wins by 22.6m: 77.9-55.3 (57.5-40.8%) assuming 4.0m uncounted votes.
b) Obama wins by 20.8m: 75.0-54.2 (57.1-41.3%)
assuming no uncounted votes.
|
2004 Unadj. |
2004 |
Total |
Mix |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
|
Exit Poll |
DNV |
21.71 |
16.0% |
71% |
27% |
2% |
15.4 |
5.9 |
0.43 |
|
52.0% |
Kerry |
59.13 |
43.7% |
89% |
9% |
2% |
52.6 |
5.3 |
1.18 |
|
47.0% |
Bush |
53.44 |
39.5% |
17% |
82% |
1% |
9.1 |
43.8 |
0.53 |
|
1.0% |
Other |
1.14 |
0.8% |
66% |
24% |
10% |
0.8 |
0.3 |
0.11 |
|
|
Total |
135.43 |
100% |
57.51% |
40.82% |
1.67% |
77.88 |
55.28 |
2.27 |
Final National Exit Poll Returning Voter Scenarios
There has been a
consistent pattern in the returning voter mix of the last three Final National
Exit Polls.
2004 NEP “Voted in 2000”
The preliminary 12:22am
NEP returning Bush/Gore voter mix was an implausible 41/39%; it was a
mathematically impossible 43/37% in the Final.
Impossible because 43% of
122.3m is 52.6m; Bush only had 50.46m votes in 2000 – and only 48m were still
alive to vote in 2004. Election stolen.
2006 NEP Midterm Generic
“Voted in 2004”
The preliminary 7pm NEP
returning Bush/Kerry voter mix was 47/45%; it was an implausible 49/43% in the
2008 Final. Landslide denied.
2008 NEP “Voted in 2004”
The preliminary NEP
Bush/Kerry voter mix is not yet available; it’s an impossible 46/37%
in the Final. Landslide denied.
Obama did much better
than Kerry among new voters and returning Bush voters.
1. Obama won 71% of new
voters and others who did not vote in 2004.
Kerry won 54% of new
voters and others who did not vote in 2000 (57% in the preliminary NEP).
2. Obama won 89% of
returning Kerry voters.
Kerry won 90% of
returning Gore voters (91% in the preliminary NEP).
3. Obama won 17% of
returning Bush voters.
Kerry won 9% (10% in the preliminary NEP).
4. Obama won 66% of
returning Other voters
Kerry won 71% (64% in the
preliminary NEP).
Final 2008 National Exit Poll Anomalies
Now let’s look at the
2008 returning voter mix. Anomalies abound.
Are we to believe that
returning Bush 2004 voters comprised 46% (60.3m) of the 2008 electorate?
Bush had 62.0m votes in
2004. If 3.0m died, there were 1.2m more returning Bush voters than were alive
in 2008. Impossible.
And assuming 95% of Bush
voters returned to vote in 2008, then only 56.0m voted.
Are we to believe that
returning Kerry voters comprised just 37% of the 2008 electorate?
Kerry had 59.0m votes. If
2.8m died, then only 48.5m (86%) voted in 2008. Implausible.
Are we to believe that in
2008 returning Bush voters outnumbered Kerry voters by 11.8m when Bush won the
recorded vote by 3.0m?
Are we to believe that
returning other (third-party) party voters comprised just 1% (1.22m) of the
2004 electorate but that 5.2m (4%) voted in 2008? Where did the 4 million other
third party voters come from? The NEP indicates that new voters comprised just
13% (17m) of the electorate and returning third-party voters 4% (5.2m). But 4%
is impossible since 1.2m third-party votes were recorded in 2004. Reducing the
third-party percentage 3% and applying the 3% to new voters raises the new
voter share of the total to 16%. The change shows that there were 21m new
voters, not 17m as the NEP indicates.
The question that media
political pundits (and bloggers) should ask is: How does the official
50.7-48.3% Bush recorded 2004 margin square with the Final 2008 46/37 returning
voter mix? This anomaly is even more implauible since many analysts have concluded
that Kerry easily won the 2004 True Vote; the number of returning (motivated)
Kerry voters in 2008 had to exceed the number of returning (unmotivated) Bush
voters.
If Kerry won by 52-47%
(unadjusted exit poll) then Bush had 57.5m votes and 54.5m were alive in 2008
(5.6m fewer than the Final NEP indicates voted).
The impossible 46/37 Bush/Kerry returning voter mix in the
Final 2008 NEP is nothing new. In 2004 the Final NEP reported an impossible
43/37 Bush/Gore returning voter mix. The Bush 43% share implied that there were
52.6 million returning Bush 2000 voters, but he had just 50.5m. Since
approximately 2.5 million died, only 48m were alive in 2004. And since
approximately 2.0m did not vote, the 2004 Final overstated the number of
returning Bush 2000 voters by more than 6.5 million.
It’s a classic case of
déjà vu. In 2004, the impossible Final NEP “Voted 2000” returning voter mix (43
Bush/37 Gore) reversed Kerry’s 51-48% margin in the preliminary NEP to match
the recorded 51-48% Bush margin. The corresponding preliminary 2008 NEP is not
available.
Exit poll critics have
consistently claimed that the impossible 43/37 Bush/Gore returning voter mix in
the Final 2004 NEP was due to returning Gore voters who misspoke to the exit
pollsters about their vote in 2000. The rationale was that Gore voters told the
exit pollsters that they voted for Bush because they wanted to be associated
with an incumbent war-time president (even though Gore won the popular vote and
Bush had a 48% approval rating). The same logic applies to 2008 – the returning
Bush voter mix is also impossible. The Final NEP 46/37 returning voter mix
should finally put that canard to rest; that is, unless the same argument is
made that returning Kerry voters also misspoke and indicated they voted for
Bush in spite of his current 22% approval rating.
Unfortunately, we don’t
have the preliminary NEP return voter mix before it was “adjusted” for the
Final. But we have analyzed preliminary exit polls from 2004 and the 2006
midterms. In both elections, the
preliminary NEP Democratic margin exceeded the Final by 6-7%. Exit pollsters
Edison-Mitofsky released their summary report in Jan. 2005. The average state exit
poll (WPE) discrepancies indicated that Kerry won by 52-47%.
There is no reason to
expect that 2008 was any different. If the 2004-2006 pattern holds, the
preliminary 2008 NEP and the average unadjusted state exit poll aggregate will
show that Obama won 55-57% of the vote. This would match a number of National
Registered Voter (RV) pre-election polls (after allocating undecided voters).
Analysts who should know
better never question the standard procedure of matching the Final Exit Poll to
the recorded vote. The answer is invariably “but that’s how it’s always
done”. But what if the vote count is
fraudulent? According to the 2004 U.S. Vote Census, 122.3m votes were recorded
out of 125.7m cast; in 2000, 105.4m were recorded of 110.8m cast. Democrats
traditionally win 70-80% of the uncounted vote. The possibility of fraud is
never considered; it would result in incorrect Final NEP demographics across
the board.
The Final National Exit
Poll suffers from an endemic disease and requires an ongoing “fix” to match
elections using bogus weights and vote shares.
The 2008 Election Calculator
The 2008 Election
Calculator calculated the True Vote (see the tables below) using Final 2008
National Exit Poll vote shares. The following returning voter scenarios were
assumed:
Since the Final NEP 46/37
returning voter mix is impossible, we will consider two possibilities: The
first assumes the 2004 election was fraud-free (recorded vote shares were used
to calculate the returning voter mix). The second assumes the election was
fraudulent (unadjusted aggregate state exit poll shares were used to calculate
the mix). The Final 2008 NEP vote shares and a 3% uncounted vote rate are
assumed.
Scenario 1 (2004
election was fraud-free)
Use the 2004 recorded
vote (Bush won by 50.7-48.3%) for calculating the returning voter mix.
Obama wins the True Vote
by 55.6- 42.7% (75.0-57.6m).
Scenario 2 (2004
election was fraudulent)
Use the unadjusted
aggregate state exit poll (Kerry won by 52-47%) for calculating the returning
voter mix.
Obama wins the True Vote
by 57.8- 40.6% (77.9-54.5m).
The sensitivity analysis
tables display Obama’s True Vote share and vote margin:
Table 1: Obama’s share of
returning Kerry and Bush voters
Table 2: Obama’s share of
returning Kerry and new voters
Table 3: Kerry vote
shares and Obama’s share of returning Bush voters.
Table 4: Kerry vote
shares and Obama’s share of new voters.
Table 5: Obama’s share of
returning Bush and new voters.
Table 6: Kerry vote
shares and Obama’s share of Kerry voters.
Table 7: Kerry and Bush
voter turnout in 2008.
Table 8: 2008 total
uncounted vote rates and Kerry’s 2004 uncounted vote share.
Table 9: Kerry and Bush
voter turnout in 2008.
Table 10: 2008 total
uncounted vote rates and Obama’s uncounted vote share.
Scenario 1: 2004 Recorded Vote
|
|
2004 Recorded Vote |
|
|
|
2008 |
|
Calculated True Vote |
|
|
||
|
|
Recorded |
Uncounted |
Cast |
Deaths |
Alive |
Turnout |
Voted |
Mix |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
|
DNV |
|
|
|
|
|
|
21.405 |
15.84% |
71% |
27% |
2% |
|
Kerry |
59.03 |
2.58 |
61.61 |
2.96 |
58.65 |
95% |
55.721 |
41.24% |
89% |
9% |
2% |
|
Bush |
62.04 |
0.83 |
62.87 |
3.02 |
59.85 |
95% |
56.857 |
42.08% |
17% |
82% |
1% |
|
Other |
1.23 |
0.03 |
1.26 |
0.06 |
1.20 |
95% |
1.142 |
0.84% |
66% |
24% |
10% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
122.30 |
3.45 |
125.74 |
6.04 |
119.70 |
113.7 |
135.125 |
100% |
55.7% |
42.7% |
1.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cast |
135.125 |
75.208 |
57.691 |
2.225 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Recorded |
52.9% |
45.6% |
1.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
131.1 |
69.3 |
59.8 |
2.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sensitivity Analysis 1 |
|
|
|
|
Sensitivity Analysis 2 |
|
|
|
|
||
|
Share of |
|
Obama Vote Share |
|
|
Share of |
|
Obama Vote Share |
|
|
||
|
Kerry voters |
Share
of Bush voters |
|
|
Kerry voters |
|
Share
of New voters |
|
|
|||
|
55.7% |
11% |
14% |
17% |
20% |
23% |
55.7% |
61% |
66% |
71% |
76% |
81% |
|
93% |
54.8% |
56.0% |
57.3% |
58.6% |
59.8% |
93% |
55.7% |
56.5% |
57.3% |
58.1% |
58.9% |
|
91% |
54.0% |
55.2% |
56.5% |
57.7% |
59.0% |
91% |
54.9% |
55.7% |
56.5% |
57.3% |
58.1% |
|
89% |
53.1% |
54.4% |
55.7% |
56.9% |
58.2% |
89% |
54.1% |
54.9% |
55.7% |
56.5% |
57.2% |
|
87% |
52.3% |
53.6% |
54.8% |
56.1% |
57.4% |
87% |
53.2% |
54.0% |
54.8% |
55.6% |
56.4% |
|
85% |
51.5% |
52.7% |
54.0% |
55.3% |
56.5% |
85% |
52.4% |
53.2% |
54.0% |
54.8% |
55.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Margin (millions) |
|
|
|
|
Margin (millions) |
|
|
||
|
17.52 |
11.0% |
14.0% |
17.0% |
20.0% |
23.0% |
17.52 |
61% |
66% |
71% |
76% |
81% |
|
93% |
15.2 |
18.6 |
22.0 |
25.4 |
28.8 |
93% |
17.7 |
19.8 |
22.0 |
24.1 |
26.3 |
|
91% |
12.9 |
16.3 |
19.7 |
23.2 |
26.6 |
91% |
15.5 |
17.6 |
19.7 |
21.9 |
24.0 |
|
89% |
10.7 |
14.1 |
17.5 |
20.9 |
24.3 |
89% |
13.2 |
15.4 |
17.5 |
19.7 |
21.8 |
|
87% |
8.5 |
11.9 |
15.3 |
18.7 |
22.1 |
87% |
11.0 |
13.1 |
15.3 |
17.4 |
19.6 |
|
85% |
6.2 |
9.6 |
13.1 |
16.5 |
19.9 |
85% |
8.8 |
10.9 |
13.1 |
15.2 |
17.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
Sensitivity Analysis 3 |
|
|
|
|
Sensitivity Analysis 4 |
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|
|
|
||
|
Kerry 2004 |
|
Obama Vote Share |
|
|
Kerry 2004 |
|
Obama Vote Share |
|
|
||
|
vote share |
|
Share
of Bush voters |
|
|
vote share |
|
Share
of New voters |
|
|
||
|
55.7% |
11% |
14% |
17% |
20% |
23% |
55.7% |
61% |
66% |
71% |
76% |
81% |
|
53% |
56.2% |
57.3% |
58.4% |
59.6% |
60.7% |
53% |
56.9% |
57.7% |
58.4% |
59.2% |
60.0% |
|
52% |
55.5% |
56.7% |
57.9% |
59.0% |
60.2% |
52% |
56.3% |
57.1% |
57.9% |
58.7% |
59.4% |
|
51% |
54.9% |
56.1% |
57.3% |
58.5% |
59.7% |
51% |
55.7% |
56.5% |
57.3% |
58.1% |
58.9% |
|
49% |
53.6% |
54.8% |
56.1% |
57.3% |
58.6% |
49% |
54.5% |
55.3% |
56.1% |
56.9% |
57.7% |
|
48% |
53.0% |
54.2% |
55.5% |
56.8% |
58.0% |
48% |
53.9% |
54.7% |
55.5% |
56.3% |
57.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Margin (millions) |
|
|
|
|
Margin (millions) |
|
|
||
|
17.52 |
11% |
14% |
17% |
20% |
23% |
17.52 |
61% |
66% |
71% |
76% |
81% |
|
53% |
18.9 |
22.0 |
25.1 |
28.2 |
31.3 |
53% |
20.8 |
23.0 |
25.1 |
27.3 |
29.4 |
|
52% |
17.2 |
20.3 |
23.5 |
26.7 |
29.8 |
52% |
19.2 |
21.4 |
23.5 |
25.6 |
27.8 |
|
51% |
15.4 |
18.7 |
21.9 |
25.1 |
28.4 |
51% |
17.6 |
19.8 |
21.9 |
24.0 |
26.2 |
|
49% |
12.0 |
15.3 |
18.7 |
22.1 |
25.4 |
49% |
14.4 |
16.6 |
18.7 |
20.8 |
23.0 |
|
48% |
10.2 |
13.7 |
17.1 |
20.5 |
23.9 |
48% |
12.8 |
15.0 |
17.1 |
19.2 |
21.4 |
|
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Sensitivity Analysis 5 |
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Sensitivity Analysis 6 |
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||
|
Share of |
|
Obama Vote Share |
|
|
Kerry 2004 |
|
Obama Vote Share |
|
|
||
|
New Voters |
|
Share
of Bush voters |
|
|
vote share |
|
Share
of Kerry voters |
|
|
||
|
55.7% |
11% |
14% |
17% |
20% |
23% |
55.7% |
85% |
87% |
89% |
91% |
93% |
|
81% |
54.7% |
56.0% |
57.2% |
58.5% |
59.8% |
53% |
56.6% |
57.5% |
58.4% |
59.4% |
60.3% |
|
76% |
53.9% |
55.2% |
56.5% |
57.7% |
59.0% |
52% |
56.1% |
57.0% |
57.9% |
58.7% |
59.6% |
|
71% |
53.1% |
54.4% |
55.7% |
56.9% |
58.2% |
51% |
55.5% |
56.4% |
57.3% |
58.1% |
59.0% |
|
66% |
52.3% |
53.6% |
54.9% |
56.1% |
57.4% |
49% |
54.4% |
55.3% |
56.1% |
56.9% |
57.8% |
|
61% |
51.5% |
52.8% |
54.1% |
55.3% |
56.6% |
48% |
53.9% |
54.7% |
55.5% |
56.3% |
57.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Margin (millions) |
|
|
|
|
Margin (millions) |
|
|
||
|
17.52 |
11% |
14% |
17% |
20% |
23% |
17.52 |
85% |
87% |
89% |
91% |
93% |
|
81% |
15.0 |
18.4 |
21.8 |
25.2 |
28.6 |
53% |
20.2 |
22.7 |
25.1 |
27.5 |
30.0 |
|
76% |
12.8 |
16.2 |
19.7 |
23.1 |
26.5 |
52% |
18.7 |
21.1 |
23.5 |
25.9 |
28.3 |
|
71% |
10.7 |
14.1 |
17.5 |
20.9 |
24.3 |
51% |
17.2 |
19.6 |
21.9 |
24.3 |
26.6 |
|
66% |
8.6 |
12.0 |
15.4 |
18.8 |
22.2 |
49% |
14.2 |
16.4 |
18.7 |
21.0 |
23.2 |
|
61% |
6.4 |
9.8 |
13.2 |
16.6 |
20.1 |
48% |
12.7 |
14.9 |
17.1 |
19.3 |
21.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sensitivity Analysis 7 |
|
|
|
|
Sensitivity Analysis 8 |
|
|
|
|
||
|
Bush |
|
Obama Vote Share |
|
|
2008 Unctd |
|
Obama Vote Share |
|
|
||
|
Voter turnout |
|
Kerry
Voter turnout |
|
|
% Cast |
|
Kerry
Share of 2004 Uncounted |
|
|||
|
55.7% |
91% |
93% |
95% |
97% |
99% |
55.7% |
65% |
70% |
75% |
80% |
85% |
|
91% |
56.3% |
56.5% |
56.6% |
56.8% |
56.9% |
5% |
55.81% |
55.89% |
55.97% |
56.06% |
56.14% |
|
93% |
55.8% |
56.0% |
56.1% |
56.3% |
56.4% |
4% |
55.65% |
55.73% |
55.82% |
55.90% |
55.98% |
|
95% |
55.3% |
55.5% |
55.7% |
55.8% |
56.0% |
3% |
55.49% |
55.58% |
55.66% |
55.74% |
55.82% |
|
97% |
54.9% |
55.0% |
55.2% |
55.3% |
55.5% |
2% |
55.33% |
55.42% |
55.50% |
55.58% |
55.67% |
|
99% |
54.4% |
54.5% |
54.7% |
54.9% |
55.0% |
0% |
55.01% |
55.10% |
55.18% |
55.27% |
55.36% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Margin (millions) |
|
|
17.5 |
|
Margin (millions) |
|
|
||
|
17.52 |
91% |
93% |
95% |
97% |
99% |
17.52 |
65% |
70% |
75% |
80% |
85% |
|
91% |
19.3 |
19.7 |
20.1 |
20.5 |
21.0 |
5% |
18.8 |
18.8 |
18.8 |
18.8 |
18.8 |
|
93% |
18.0 |
18.4 |
18.8 |
19.2 |
19.7 |
4% |
18.1 |
18.1 |
18.1 |
18.1 |
18.1 |
|
95% |
16.7 |
17.1 |
17.5 |
17.9 |
18.4 |
3% |
17.5 |
17.5 |
17.5 |
17.5 |
17.5 |
|
97% |
15.4 |
15.8 |
16.2 |
16.6 |
17.1 |
2% |
16.9 |
16.9 |
16.9 |
16.9 |
16.9 |
|
99% |
14.1 |
14.5 |
14.9 |
15.3 |
15.8 |
0% |
15.7 |
15.7 |
15.7 |
15.7 |
15.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sensitivity Analysis 9 |
|
|
|
|
Sensitivity Analysis 10 |
|
|
|
|
||
|
Bush |
|
Obama Vote Share |
|
|
2008 Unctd |
|
Obama Recorded Vote Share (net of Unctd) |
||||
|
Voter turnout |
|
Kerry
Voter turnout |
|
|
% Cast |
|
Obama
Share of Uncounted |
|
|||
|
55.7% |
91% |
93% |
95% |
97% |
99% |
55.1% |
65% |
70% |
75% |
80% |
85% |
|
91% |
56.3% |
56.5% |
56.6% |
56.8% |
56.9% |
5% |
55.50% |
55.24% |
54.97% |
54.71% |
54.45% |
|
93% |
55.8% |
56.0% |
56.1% |
56.3% |
56.4% |
4% |
55.43% |
55.23% |
55.02% |
54.81% |
54.60% |
|
95% |
55.3% |
55.5% |
55.7% |
55.8% |
56.0% |
3% |
55.37% |
55.21% |
55.06% |
54.91% |
54.75% |
|
97% |
54.9% |
55.0% |
55.2% |
55.3% |
55.5% |
2% |
55.31% |
55.20% |
55.10% |
55.00% |
54.90% |
|
99% |
54.4% |
54.5% |
54.7% |
54.9% |
55.0% |
0% |
55.18% |
55.18% |
55.18% |
55.18% |
55.18% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Margin (millions) |
|
|
|
|
Margin (millions) |
|
|
||
|
17.52 |
91% |
93% |
95% |
97% |
99% |
15.45 |
65% |
70% |
75% |
80% |
85% |
|
91% |
19.3 |
19.7 |
20.1 |
20.5 |
21.0 |
5% |
15.3 |
15.3 |
15.3 |
15.3 |
15.3 |
|
93% |
18.0 |
18.4 |
18.8 |
19.2 |
19.7 |
4% |
15.4 |
15.4 |
15.4 |
15.4 |
15.4 |
|
95% |
16.7 |
17.1 |
17.5 |
17.9 |
18.4 |
3% |
15.5 |
15.5 |
15.5 |
15.5 |
15.5 |
|
97% |
15.4 |
15.8 |
16.2 |
16.6 |
17.1 |
2% |
15.5 |
15.5 |
15.5 |
15.5 |
15.5 |
|
99% |
14.1 |
14.5 |
14.9 |
15.3 |
15.8 |
0% |
15.7 |
15.7 |
15.7 |
15.7 |
15.7 |
|
Sensitivity Analysis 11 |
|
|
|
|
Sensitivity Analysis 12 |
|
|
|
|
||
|
Voter |
|
Obama Vote Share |
|
|
Voter |
|
Obama Vote Share |
|
|
||
|
Mortality |
|
Kerry
Voter turnout |
|
|
Mortality |
|
Bush
Voter Turnout |
|
|
||
|
55.7% |
91% |
93% |
95% |
97% |
99% |
55.7% |
99% |
97% |
95% |
93% |
91% |
|
1.6% |
55.6% |
55.8% |
56.0% |
56.1% |
56.3% |
1.6% |
55.0% |
55.5% |
56.0% |
56.4% |
56.9% |
|
1.4% |
55.5% |
55.7% |
55.8% |
56.0% |
56.1% |
1.4% |
54.9% |
55.3% |
55.8% |
56.3% |
56.8% |
|
1.2% |
55.4% |
55.5% |
55.7% |
55.8% |
56.0% |
1.2% |
54.7% |
55.2% |
55.7% |
56.2% |
56.6% |
|
1.0% |
55.3% |
55.4% |
55.6% |
55.7% |
55.9% |
1.0% |
54.6% |
55.1% |
55.6% |
56.0% |
56.5% |
|
0.8% |
55.1% |
55.3% |
55.4% |
55.6% |
55.8% |
0.8% |
54.5% |
55.0% |
55.4% |
55.9% |
56.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Margin (millions) |
|
|
|
|
Margin (millions) |
|
|
||
|
17.65 |
91% |
93% |
95% |
97% |
99% |
17.65 |
99% |
97% |
95% |
93% |
91% |
|
1.6% |
17.5 |
17.9 |
18.4 |
18.8 |
19.2 |
2% |
15.8 |
17.1 |
18.4 |
19.6 |
20.9 |
|
1.4% |
17.2 |
17.6 |
18.0 |
18.4 |
18.8 |
1% |
15.4 |
16.7 |
18.0 |
19.3 |
20.6 |
|
1.2% |
16.8 |
17.2 |
17.7 |
18.1 |
18.5 |
1% |
15.0 |
16.3 |
17.7 |
19.0 |
20.3 |
|
1.0% |
16.4 |
16.9 |
17.3 |
17.7 |
18.2 |
1% |
14.7 |
16.0 |
17.3 |
18.6 |
19.9 |
|
0.8% |
16.1 |
16.5 |
16.9 |
17.4 |
17.8 |
1% |
14.3 |
15.6 |
16.9 |
18.3 |
19.6 |
Scenario 2: 2004 Unadjusted Exit Poll
|
|
2004 Unadjusted State
Exit Poll Aggregate (WPE/IMS) |
|
2008 |
|
Calculated True Vote |
|
|
||||
|
|
Exit Poll |
Uncounted |
Cast |
Deaths |
Alive |
Turnout |
Voted |
Mix |
Obama |
McCain |
Other |
|
DNV |
|
|
|
|
|
|
21.405 |
15.84% |
71% |
27% |
2% |
|
Kerry |
63.59 |
1.79 |
65.38 |
3.14 |
62.25 |
95% |
59.134 |
43.76% |
89% |
9% |
2% |
|
Bush |
57.47 |
1.62 |
59.09 |
2.84 |
56.26 |
95% |
53.444 |
39.55% |
17% |
82% |
1% |
|
Other |
1.23 |
0.03 |
1.26 |
0.06 |
1.20 |
95% |
1.142 |
0.84% |
66% |
24% |
10% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
122.30 |
3.45 |
125.74 |
6.04 |
119.70 |
113.7 |
135.125 |
100% |
57.5% |
40.9% |
1.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cast |
135.125 |
77.666 |
55.199 |
2.259 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Recorded |
52.9% |
45.6% |
1.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
131.1 |
69.3 |
59.8 |
2.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sensitivity Analysis 1 |
|
|
|
|
Sensitivity Analysis 2 |
|
|
|
|
||
|
Share of |
|
Obama Vote Share |
|
|
Share of |
|
Obama Vote Share |
|
|
||
|
Kerry voters |
Share
of Bush voters |
|
|
Kerry voters |
|
Share
of New voters |
|
|
|||
|
57.5% |
11% |
14% |
17% |
20% |
23% |
57.5% |
61% |
66% |
71% |
76% |
81% |
|
93% |
56.9% |
58.0% |
59.2% |
60.4% |
61.6% |
93% |
57.6% |
58.4% |
59.2% |
60.0% |
60.8% |
|
91% |
56.0% |
57.2% |
58.4% |
59.5% |
60.7% |
91% |
56.8% |
57.6% |
58.4% |
59.1% |
59.9% |
|
89% |
55.1% |
56.3% |
57.5% |
58.7% |
59.9% |
89% |
55.9% |
56.7% |
57.5% |
58.3% |
59.1% |
|
87% |
54.2% |
55.4% |
56.6% |
57.8% |
59.0% |
87% |
55.0% |
55.8% |
56.6% |
57.4% |
58.2% |
|
85% |
53.4% |
54.5% |
55.7% |
56.9% |
58.1% |
85% |
54.1% |
54.9% |
55.7% |
56.5% |
57.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Margin (millions) |
|
|
|
|
Margin (millions) |
|
|
||
|
22.47 |
11.0% |
14.0% |
17.0% |
20.0% |
23.0% |
22.47 |
61% |
66% |
71% |
76% |
81% |
|
93% |
20.8 |
24.0 |
27.2 |
30.4 |
33.6 |
93% |
22.9 |
25.1 |
27.2 |
29.3 |
31.5 |
|
91% |
18.4 |
21.6 |
24.8 |
28.0 |
31.2 |
91% |
20.6 |
22.7 |
24.8 |
27.0 |
29.1 |
|
89% |
16.1 |
19.3 |
22.5 |
25.7 |
28.9 |
89% |
18.2 |
20.3 |
22.5 |
24.6 |
26.7 |
|
87% |
13.7 |
16.9 |
20.1 |
23.3 |
26.5 |
87% |
15.8 |
18.0 |
20.1 |
22.2 |
24.4 |
|
85% |
11.3 |
14.5 |
17.7 |
20.9 |
24.1 |
85% |
13.5 |
15.6 |
17.7 |
19.9 |
22.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sensitivity Analysis 3 |
|
|
|
|
Sensitivity Analysis 4 |
|
|
|
|
||
|
Kerry 2004 |
|
Obama Vote Share |
|
|
Kerry 2004 |
|
Obama Vote Share |
|
|
||
|
vote share |
|
Share
of Bush voters |
|
|
vote share |
|
Share
of New voters |
|
|
||
|
57.5% |
11% |
14% |
17% |
20% |
23% |
57.5% |
61% |
66% |
71% |
76% |
81% |
|
53% |
55.8% |
56.9% |
58.1% |
59.2% |
60.4% |
53% |
56.5% |
57.3% |
58.1% |
58.9% |
59.7% |
|
52% |
55.1% |
56.3% |
57.5% |
58.7% |
59.9% |
52% |
55.9% |
56.7% |
57.5% |
58.3% |
59.1% |
|
51% |
54.4% |
55.7% |
56.9% |
58.1% |
59.3% |
51% |
55.3% |
56.1% |
56.9% |
57.7% |
58.5% |
|
49% |
53.1% |
54.4% |
55.7% |
56.9% |
58.2% |
49% |
54.1% |
54.9% |
55.7% |
56.5% |
57.2% |
|
48% |
52.5% |
53.8% |
55.1% |
56.3% |
57.6% |
48% |
53.5% |
54.3% |
55.1% |
55.8% |
56.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Margin (millions) |
|
|
|
|
Margin (millions) |
|
|
||
|
22.47 |
11% |
14% |
17% |
20% |
23% |
22.47 |
61% |
66% |
71% |
76% |
81% |
|
53% |
17.8 |
21.0 |
24.1 |
27.3 |
30.4 |
53% |
19.8 |
22.0 |
24.1 |
26.3 |
28.4 |
|
52% |
16.1 |
19.3 |
22.5 |
25.7 |
28.9 |
52% |
18.2 |
20.3 |
22.5 |
24.6 |
26.7 |
|
51% |
14.3 |
17.5 |
20.8 |
24.1 |
27.4 |
51% |
16.5 |
18.7 |
20.8 |
23.0 |
25.1 |
|
49% |
10.7 |
14.1 |
17.5 |
20.9 |
24.3 |
49% |
13.2 |
15.4 |
17.5 |
19.7 |
21.8 |
|
48% |
8.9 |
12.4 |
15.9 |
19.4 |
22.8 |
48% |
11.6 |
13.7 |
15.9 |
18.0 |
20.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sensitivity Analysis 5 |
|
|
|
|
Sensitivity Analysis 6 |
|
|
|
|
||
|
Share of |
|
Obama Vote Share |
|
|
Kerry 2004 |
|
Obama Vote Share |
|
|
||
|
New Voters |
|
Share
of Bush voters |
|
|
vote share |
|
Share
of Kerry voters |
|
|
||
|
57.5% |
11% |
14% |
17% |
20% |
23% |
57.5% |
85% |
87% |
89% |
91% |
93% |
|
81% |
56.7% |
57.9% |
59.1% |
60.2% |
61.4% |
53% |
56.3% |
57.2% |
58.1% |
59.0% |
59.9% |
|
76% |
55.9% |
57.1% |
58.3% |
59.5% |
60.6% |
52% |
55.7% |
56.6% |
57.5% |
58.4% |
59.2% |
|
71% |
55.1% |
56.3% |
57.5% |
58.7% |
59.9% |
51% |
55.2% |
56.0% |
56.9% |
57.7% |
58.6% |
|
66% |
54.3% |
55.5% |
56.7% |
57.9% |
59.1% |
49% |
54.0% |
54.8% |
55.7% |
56.5% |
57.3% |
|
61% |
53.5% |
54.7% |
55.9% |
57.1% |
58.3% |
48% |
53.4% |
54.2% |
55.1% |
55.9% |
56.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Margin (millions) |
|
|
|
|
Margin (millions) |
|
|
||
|
22.47 |
11% |
14% |
17% |
20% |
23% |
22.47 |
85% |
87% |
89% |
91% |
93% |
|
81% |
20.3 |
23.5 |
26.7 |
30.0 |
33.2 |
53% |
19.3 |
21.7 |
24.1 |
26.5 |
28.9 |
|
76% |
18.2 |
21.4 |
24.6 |
27.8 |
31.0 |
52% |
17.7 |
20.1 |
22.5 |
24.8 |
27.2 |
|
71% |
16.1 |
19.3 |
22.5 |
25.7 |
28.9 |
51% |
16.2 |
18.5 |
20.8 |
23.1 |
25.5 |
|
66% |
13.9 |
17.1 |
20.3 |
23.5 |
26.7 |
49% |
13.1 |
15.3 |
17.5 |
19.7 |
22.0 |
|
61% |
11.8 |
15.0 |
18.2 |
21.4 |
24.6 |
48% |
11.5 |
13.7 |
15.9 |
18.1 |
20.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sensitivity Analysis 7 |
|
|
|
|
Sensitivity Analysis 8 |
|
|
|
|
||
|
Bush |
|
Obama Vote Share |
|
|
2008 Unctd |
|
Obama Vote Share |
|
|
||
|
Voter turnout |
|
Kerry
Voter turnout |
|
|
% Cast |
|
Kerry
Share of 2004 Uncounted |
|
|||
|
57.5% |
91% |
93% |
95% |
97% |
99% |
57.5% |
65% |
70% |
75% |
80% |
85% |
|
91% |
58.0% |
58.2% |
58.4% |
58.5% |
58.7% |
5% |
57.97% |
58.05% |
58.13% |
58.21% |
58.29% |
|
93% |
57.6% |
57.8% |
57.9% |
58.1% |
58.3% |
4% |
57.83% |
57.91% |
57.99% |
58.08% |
58.16% |
|
95% |
57.1% |
57.3% |
57.5% |
57.6% |
57.8% |
3% |
57.69% |
57.78% |
57.86% |
57.94% |
58.03% |
|
97% |
56.7% |
56.9% |
57.0% |
57.2% |
57.4% |
2% |
57.56% |
57.64% |
57.72% |
57.81% |
57.89% |
|
99% |
56.2% |
56.4% |
56.6% |
56.7% |
56.9% |
0% |
57.28% |
57.37% |
57.45% |
57.54% |
57.62% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Margin (millions) |
|
|
22.5 |
|
Margin (millions) |
|
|
||
|
22.47 |
91% |
93% |
95% |
97% |
99% |
22.47 |
65% |
70% |
75% |
80% |
85% |
|
91% |
24.0 |
24.5 |
24.9 |
25.4 |
25.8 |
5% |
23.7 |
23.7 |
23.7 |
23.7 |
23.7 |
|
93% |
22.8 |
23.2 |
23.7 |
24.1 |
24.6 |
4% |
23.1 |
23.1 |
23.1 |
23.1 |
23.1 |
|
95% |
21.6 |
22.0 |
22.5 |
22.9 |
23.4 |
3% |
22.5 |
22.5 |
22.5 |
22.5 |
22.5 |
|
97% |
20.3 |
20.8 |
21.2 |
21.7 |
22.1 |
2% |
21.9 |
21.9 |
21.9 |
21.9 |
21.9 |
|
99% |
19.1 |
19.6 |
20.0 |
20.5 |
20.9 |
0% |
20.7 |
20.7 |
20.7 |
20.7 |
20.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sensitivity Analysis 9 |
|
|
|
|
Sensitivity Analysis 10 |
|
|
|
|
||
|
Bush |
|
Obama Vote Share |
|
|
2008 Unctd |
|
Obama Recorded Vote Share (net of Unctd) |
||||
|
Voter turnout |
|
Kerry
Voter turnout |
|
|
% Cast |
|
Obama
Share of Uncounted |
|
|||
|
57.5% |
91% |
93% |
95% |
97% |
99% |
56.9% |
65% |
70% |
75% |
80% |
85% |
|
91% |
58.0% |
58.2% |
58.4% |
58.5% |
58.7% |
5% |
57.37% |
57.11% |
56.85% |
56.59% |
56.32% |
|
93% |
57.6% |
57.8% |
57.9% |
58.1% |
58.3% |
4% |
57.31% |
57.10% |
56.89% |
56.68% |
56.48% |
|
95% |
57.1% |
57.3% |
57.5% |
57.6% |
57.8% |
3% |
57.24% |
57.09% |
56.94% |
56.78% |
56.63% |
|
97% |
56.7% |
56.9% |
57.0% |
57.2% |
57.4% |
2% |
57.18% |
57.08% |
56.98% |
56.88% |
56.77% |
|
99% |
56.2% |
56.4% |
56.6% |
56.7% |
56.9% |
0% |
57.06% |
57.06% |
57.06% |
57.06% |
57.06% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Margin (millions) |
|
|
|
|
Margin (millions) |
|
|
||
|
22.47 |
91% |
93% |
95% |
97% |
99% |
20.40 |
65% |
70% |
75% |
80% |
85% |
|
91% |
24.0 |
24.5 |
24.9 |
25.4 |
25.8 |
5% |
20.2 |
20.2 |
20.2 |
20.2 |
20.2 |
|
93% |
22.8 |
23.2 |
23.7 |
24.1 |
24.6 |
4% |
20.3 |
20.3 |
20.3 |
20.3 |
20.3 |
|
95% |
21.6 |
22.0 |
22.5 |
22.9 |
23.4 |
3% |
20.4 |
20.4 |
20.4 |
20.4 |
20.4 |
|
97% |
20.3 |
20.8 |
21.2 |
21.7 |
22.1 |
2% |
20.5 |
20.5 |
20.5 |
20.5 |
20.5 |
|
99% |
19.1 |
19.6 |
20.0 |
20.5 |
20.9 |
0% |
20.7 |
20.7 |
20.7 |
20.7 |
20.7 |
|
Sensitivity Analysis 11 |
|
|
|
|
Sensitivity Analysis 12 |
|
|
|
|
||
|
Voter |
|
Obama Vote Share |
|
|
Voter |
|
Obama Vote Share |
|
|
||
|
Mortality |
|
Kerry
Voter turnout |
|
|
Mortality |
|
Bush
Voter Turnout |
|
|
||
|
57.5% |
91% |
93% |
95% |
97% |
99% |
57.5% |
99% |
97% |
95% |
93% |
91% |
|
1.6% |
57.4% |
57.6% |
57.7% |
57.9% |
58.1% |
1.6% |
56.9% |
57.3% |
57.7% |
58.2% |
58.6% |
|
1.4% |
57.3% |
57.5% |
57.6% |
57.8% |
57.9% |
1.4% |
56.7% |
57.2% |
57.6% |
58.1% |
58.5% |
|
1.2% |
57.2% |
57.3% |
57.5% |
57.7% |
57.8% |
1.2% |
56.6% |
57.1% |
57.5% |
58.0% |
58.4% |
|
1.0% |
57.1% |
57.2% |
57.4% |
57.6% |
57.7% |
1.0% |
56.5% |
56.9% |
57.4% |
57.8% |
58.3% |
|
0.8% |
56.9% |
57.1% |
57.3% |
57.4% |
57.6% |
0.8% |
56.4% |
56.8% |
57.3% |
57.7% |
58.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Margin (millions) |
|
|
|
|
Margin (millions) |
|
|
||
|
22.60 |
91% |
93% |
95% |
97% |
99% |
22.60 |
99% |
97% |
95% |
93% |
91% |
|
1.6% |
22.3 |
22.8 |
23.2 |
23.7 |
24.1 |
2% |
20.8 |
22.0 |
23.2 |
24.4 |
25.6 |
|
1.4% |
22.0 |
22.5 |
22.9 |
23.4 |
23.8 |
1% |
20.5 |
21.7 |
22.9 |
24.1 |
25.3 |
|
1.2% |
21.7 |
22.2 |
22.6 |
23.0 |
23.5 |
1% |
20.1 |
21.4 |
22.6 |
23.8 |
25.1 |
|
1.0% |
21.4 |
21.8 |
22.3 |
22.7 |
23.2 |
1% |
19.8 |
21.1 |
22.3 |
23.5 |
24.8 |
|
0.8% |
21.1 |
21.5 |
22.0 |
22.4 |
22.9 |
1% |
19.5 |
20.7 |
22.0 |
23.2 |
24.5 |