Obama won the recorded vote by 69.46-59.34m, a 52.87-45.6% vote share. The Final 2008 National Exit Poll which is always forced to match the recorded vote, indicates a 52.62-45.52% split.
But the 2008 Final
returning Bush/Kerry (46/37) voter mix is mathematically impossible as was the
Final 2004 Bush/Gore (43/37) mix. Both
exit polls required 6-7m more returning Bush voters in 2008 than those living
in order to match the recorded vote. The return voter mix anomaly is therefore
further confirmation that Kerry won. Implausible low Kerry voter turnout and
impossible high Bush voter turnout in 2008 is required to match the recorded
vote. Obama’s True Vote exceeded the recorded vote as it did for Kerry and
Gore. In order to match the recorded vote, the 2008 Final implies that Bush won
in 2004 by 52.9-42.5%. He won by
50.7-48.3% (62-59m).
The 2008 return voter mix anomaly is further confirmation that Kerry won. An implausible low Kerry voter turnout and impossible high Bush voter turnout in 2008 was required to match the recorded vote. Obama’s True Vote far exceeded the recorded vote just at it did for Kerry and Gore. In order to match the recorded vote, the 2008 Final NEP implied that Bush won by 52.9-42.5%. He won the recorded vote (but who still believes it?) by 50.7-48.3% (62-59m).
Because the Final 2008 NEP returning voter mix is impossible, the 2008 Election Calculator assumed two returning voter scenarios in order to match the recorded vote. The scenarios were based on the recorded 2004 vote (assuming the election was fraud-free) and the unadjusted 2004 state exit poll aggregate (assuming the election was stolen) that Kerry won by 52-47%. Both scenarios required vote shares that differed sharply from the Final NEP shares.
The actual Final NEP Obama/McCain shares of returning and new voters were assumed in order to calculate the True Vote for both no-fraud and fraud scenarios. The Final shares are used only because the preliminary NEP has not been and may never be released.
There is no doubt that Obama's vote shares were higher in the preliminary NEP. That is always the case since the objective is to always match the Final to the recorded vote - which means that the Democratic vote shares must be reduced. Therefore, Obama must have done better than the calculated True vote indicates; he won by more than 22 million votes.
To determine the required turnout of 2004 voters, the only assumptions are:
1) 1.20% annual voter mortality rate (4.8% over 4 years)
2) All votes cast were counted in 2004 and 2008.
According to the 2004 US Census, there were 3.45m more votes were cast than recorded. An estimated 75% were Kerry votes, but to be conservative and simplify the analysis, no uncounted votes were assumed in 2004 or 2008.
We assume two scenarios for returning 2004 voters:
1) The 2004 vote was fraud-free (the recorded vote was the True vote).
2) The 2004 election was stolen (the unadjusted exit poll was the True vote).
For each scenario, we will consider two cases for 2004 voter turnout in 2008:
A) Turnout is calculated based on the NEP voter mix.
B) Turnout is 95% for returning Kerry, Bush and Other voters.
In Scenario 1A, Bush voter turnout is an impossible 102% assuming the NEP returning voter mix; Kerry turnout is an implausible 86%.
In Scenario 2A, Bush voter turnout is an impossible 110% assuming the NEP returning voter mix; Kerry turnout is an implausible 80%.
In Scenario 1B, Obama’s vote share is 2.34% higher than the recorded 52.87%; his vote margin is 7m higher than the recorded 9m.
In Scenario 2B, Obama’s vote share is 4.60% higher than the recorded 52.87%; his vote margin is 13m higher than the recorded 9m.
In Scenario 1C, Obama’s vote shares have to be reduced sharply from the 2008 NEP to match the recorded vote (67,88,14,66)
In Scenario 2C, Obama’s vote shares have to be reduced sharply from the 2008 NEP to match the recorded vote (60,86,13,66)
Scenario
1: 2004 Recorded Vote was the True Vote (no fraud)
A)
2008 National Exit Poll returning voter mix and vote shares
Impossible 2004 voter
turnout in 2008
2004 Alive Voted Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
DNV 17.08 13% 71% 27% 2% 12.13 4.61 0.34
86% Kerry 56.20 48.61 37% 89% 9% 2% 43.26 4.37 0.97
102% Bush 59.06 60.43 46% 17% 82% 1% 10.27 49.55 0.60
451% Other 1.16 5.25 4% 66% 24% 10% 3.47 1.26 0.53
Total 116.43 131.37 100.0% 52.62% 45.52% 1.86% 69.13 59.80 2.44
B)
2004 Recorded Vote mix and 2008 NEP vote shares
Turnout 2004 Alive Voted Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
DNV 20.76 15.8% 71% 27% 2% 14.74 5.61 0.42
95% Kerry 56.20 53.39 40.6% 89% 9% 2% 47.52 4.81 1.07
95% Bush 59.06 56.11 42.7% 17% 82% 1% 9.54 46.01 0.56
95% Other 1.16 1.11 0.8% 66% 24% 10% 0.73 0.27 0.11
Total 116.43 131.37 100.0% 55.21% 43.15% 1.64% 72.53 56.69 2.15
Recorded 131.37 52.87% 45.62% 1.51% 69.457 59.935 1.978
Diff 2.34% -2.47% 0.13% 3.07 -3.25 0.18
C)
2004 Recorded Vote mix and 2008 NEP vote shares adjusted to match the recorded
vote
Implausible
vote shares beyond the NEP margin of error
Turnout 2004 Alive Voted Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
DNV 20.76 15.8% 67% 31% 2% 13.91 6.44 0.42
95% Kerry 56.20 53.39 40.6% 88% 10% 2% 46.98 5.34 1.07
95% Bush 59.06 56.11 42.7% 14% 85% 1% 7.86 47.69 0.56
95% Other 1.16 1.11 0.8% 66% 24% 10% 0.73 0.27 0.11
Total 116.43 131.37 100.0% 52.89% 45.47% 1.64% 69.48 59.74 2.15
Recorded 131.37 52.87% 45.62% 1.51% 69.457 59.935 1.978
Diff 0.02% -0.15% 0.13% 0.02 -0.20 0.18
A)
2008 National Exit Poll mix and vote shares
Impossible 2004 voter
turnout in 2008
Turnout 2004 Alive Voted Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
DNV 17.08 13.0% 71% 27% 2% 12.13 4.61 0.34
80% Kerry 60.54 48.61 37.0% 89% 9% 2% 43.26 4.37 0.97
110% Bush 54.72 60.43 46.0% 17% 82% 1% 10.27 49.55 0.60
451% Other 1.16 5.25 4.0% 66% 24% 10% 3.47 1.26 0.53
Total 116.43 131.37 100.0% 52.62% 45.5% 1.86% 69.13 59.80 2.44
B)
Unadjusted 2004 Exit Poll mix and 2008 NEP vote shares
Turnout 2004 Alive Voted Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
DNV 20.76 15.8% 71% 27% 2% 14.74 5.61 0.42
95% Kerry 60.54 57.52 43.8% 89% 9% 2% 51.19 5.18 1.15
95% Bush 54.72 51.99 39.6% 17% 82% 1% 8.84 42.63 0.52
95% Other 1.16 1.11 0.8% 66% 24% 10% 0.73 0.27 0.11
Total 116.43 131.37 100.0% 57.47% 40.86% 1.67% 75.50 53.68 2.20
Recorded 131.37 52.87% 45.62% 1.51% 69.457 59.935 1.978
Diff 4.60% -4.76% 0.17% 6.04 -6.26 0.22
C)
Unadjusted 2004 Exit Poll mix with 2008 NEP vote shares adjusted to match the
recorded vote
Implausible vote shares
beyond the NEP margin of error
Turnout 2004 Alive Voted Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
DNV 20.76 15.8% 60% 38.0% 2% 12.46 7.89 0.42
95% Kerry 60.54 57.52 43.8% 86% 12.0% 2% 49.46 6.90 1.15
95% Bush 54.72 51.99 39.6% 13% 86.0% 1% 6.76 44.71 0.52
95% Other 1.16 1.11 0.8% 66% 24.0% 10% 0.73 0.27 0.11
Total 116.43 131.37 100.0% 52.83% 45.49% 1.67% 69.41 59.76 2.20
Recorded 131.37 52.87% 45.62% 1.51% 69.457 59.935 1.978
Diff 0.00 -0.04% -0.13% 0.17% -0.05 -0.17 0.22