Urban Legend

The Urban Legend: Further Confirmation of a Kerry Landslide

Election 2004: The Urban Legend by Michael Collins (autorank) provides convincing evidence that Bush’s urban vote shares were implausible.

The purpose of this analysis is to provide additional support for Collins’ findings. The focus is on the National Exit Poll location-size and regional demographic categories. We will look at the Final 2000 NEP, the 2004 NEP (updated at 7:33pm on Election Day) and the Final 2004 NEP (updated at 2pm the following day). Since the Final NEP is matched to the recorded vote, it can be used to show that the changes in Bush urban and suburban vote shares from 2000 were implausible. In addition, a detailed table of changes in the recorded New York county vote provides further confirmation that the Bush “mandate” is a myth.

Another objective of this study was to determine a plausible combination of vote shares for each of the five location categories. The 7:33pm NEP "location-size" vote shares were adjusted (Table 5) to match the True Vote (Kerry by 52.6-46.4%) which was previously calculated using feasible weights applied to the 12:22am NEP "Voted 2000" vote shares (Table 7). A sensitivity analysis table displays the effects of various Urban and Small Town/Rural vote share scenarios on Kerry's True Vote.

The National Exit Poll regional weightings matched the aggregate regional state exit poll weightings. Adjustments were made to state vote shares. The "pristine" state average WPE morphed to the Composite (weighted average of Pre-election and Best Survey estimates) and then to the Final (matched to the Recorded vote). Kerry's aggregate state exit poll share was 51.8% (324 electoral votes). The Margin of Error was exceeded in 29 of 50 states for Bush.

Science works by assuming that the hypothesis that best fits the data is correct. But it must be tested against new data, which either firms the hypothesis or causes it to be rejected in favor of a better explanation. Twenty-one data tables categorized in three groups (location-size, region, New York State) display the full analysis. The tables provide the best evidence that the Urban Legend of a Bush "mandate" is a faith-based myth. The reality is that the true Kerry mandate was hijacked.

The County Vote Database is a downloadable Excel workbook which contains a full set of 2000 and 2004 recorded data. One can easily screen the database using the Custom Auto Filter option to view changes in state/county recorded votes and other statistical measures. The following states have been placed in individual worksheets for further analysis: CA, NY, OH, FL, NJ

The Urban Legend is obvious when one compares the Final 2000 and 2004 National Exit Poll location-size demographic percentages:

1. Bush’s vote count increased by 57% in traditional Democratic urban areas and by 30% in suburban locations. At the same time, his vote count declined by 5% in Republican small towns and rural areas.

2. Bush’s vote share increased by 9% in traditional Democratic urban areas and by 3% in suburban locations. At the same time, his vote share declined by 3% in Republican small towns and rural areas.

3. The 7:33pm National Exit Poll update indicated that Kerry won the location-size demographic by 50.6-47.6%. The Final NEP was forced to match the recorded vote by “adjusting” the 7:33pm vote shares.

4. Pollsters Edison-Mitofsky Jan. 2005 report revealed that Urban and Suburban locations had the highest WPE discrepancies while Rural Areas and Small Towns had the lowest. The highest regional discrepancies were in the East and West.

5. Kerry was a 51.7-47.2% winner after adjusting Final NEP location-size demographic vote shares by WPE.

6. Kerry was a 51.8-47.3% winner after adjusting Final NEP regional demographic vote shares by WPE.

The New York Urban Legend

1. Kerry won three NY exit poll measures by an average of 64.1%. His recorded share was 58.5%.

2. Mechanical voting machine precincts had the highest national Within Precinct Error (10.6%). New York votes 99% by Lever.

3. According to the National Exit Poll, Kerry won 57% of new voters; 91% of Gore; 64% of Nader; 10% of Bush.

4. Kerry’s NY vote share was 10% higher than his national share. His NY “Voted 2000” shares must have exceeded the national shares.

5. Kerry won 64.3% of the final 499k recorded (absentee?) votes (exactly matching the exit poll) and just 57.9% of the initial 6.89m votes;

Gore won 65.4% of the final 552k recorded (absentee?) votes and 59.8% of the initial 6.27m votes.

6. Kerry won approximately 75% of the uncounted votes (included in the exit poll but not the official count).

7. Kerry had his highest shares in the four NY counties which had the highest rates of voting incidents.

8. Bush gained a total of 573k votes in NY (25.8%) from 2000; Kerry gained just 246k (6.6%); Nader lost 196k.

9. Kerry won returning Nader voters by a 47% margin over Bush; he won new voters by 16%. Bush 2000 voters defected to Kerry at a 2% higher rate than Gore voters to Bush. If we conservatively assume that Kerry’s share of New and former NY Gore voters was just 1% higher than his National share, then Bush needed 100% of former Bush voters to match the official count! The net defection rate would have to flip from Kerry (+2%) to Bush (+7%). So how did Bush improve his NY share by over 5%? Do you believe in magic?

10. Bush made big gains in heavily Democratic urban/suburban locations but did not do well in Republican small towns and rural areas. Seven strongly Democratic NYC area counties comprised 50% of the total New York State recorded vote; Kerry had 66% in the seven counties, but Bush gained 311k (41.3%) over his 2000 vote; Kerry improved by just 129k (5.4%) over the Gore vote; Nader lost 89k. In the other counties, Bush had 48% and gained 262k votes (7.6%) while Kerry gained 118k (3.4%).

11. Since Kerry won 64% (57k) and Bush 17% (15k) of returning Nader voters, Kerry would have had a 72-27% margin in the seven counties assuming an equal defection of Bush and Gore voters. But according to the National Exit Poll, 10% of Bush voters defected and only 8% of Gore voters did. Assuming the net 2% defection to Kerry, he would have had a 73-26% margin in the seven counties. So how could the Bush vote share increase by 6.4% (26.5 to 32.9%) and the Kerry share decline by 3.6% (69.6 to 66.0%)? That’s a 10% net increase in Bush margin!

Spreadsheet Tables

Location-size stats

1. 2000 Final NEP - matched to recorded vote

2. 2004 Final NEP - matched to recorded vote

3. Vote share Changes: 2000 to 2004

4. 7:33pm NEP

5. NEP - vote shares adjusted to obtain True Vote (7)

6. Vote share summary

7. True Vote (based on Voted 2000 feasible weights)

8. Location-size WPE

9. Final NEP -WPE adjusted (total Census votes)

10. Final NEP -WPE adjusted

Regional Stats

11. Regional NEP (7:33pm and Final)

12. Regional NEP -WPE adjusted aggregate

13. States exceeding MoE (Region/Time-zone)

14. Regional analysis (Electoral Vote)

15. State Exit Polls (WPE)

New York State

16. Pre-election and exit polls

17. Voting machine by WPE

18. NY county vote changes

19. Seven largest NYC area counties

20. NY county vote (2000-2004)

21. NY county vote margin change analysis

Kerry NEP Vote Shares

Table

Final NEP (13660 respondents, matched to recorded vote)

2 Location...48.1%

11 Region......48.2%

NEP (7:33 update, 11027 respondents)

4 Location...50.6%

11 Region......50.5%

Final NEP (WPE-adjusted vote shares)

10 Location...51.7% (state aggregate)

12 Region......51.8%

15 State.........51.8%

NEP Location-size Demographic

Bush Vote Changes from Final 2000 NEP

to 7:33pm update and Final 2004 NEP

NEP 2000 2004 2000 2004 --Change--

Size Bush Bush Share Share Vote Pct

Final

Table 2

Urban 10.8 17.0 35.7% 44.8% 6.2 57%

Suburb 22.1 28.6 49.0% 52.0% 6.5 30%

Rural 17.2 16.4 59.0% 56.0% -0.8 -5%

Total 50.1 62.0 48.4% 50.7% 11.9 23.7%

7:33pm

Table 4

Urban 10.8 16.2 35.7% 41.5% 5.4 50%

Suburb 22.1 26.4 49.0% 49.0% 4.3 19%

Rural 17.2 15.6 59.0% 54.1% -1.6 -9%

TOTAL 50.1 58.2 48.4% 47.6% 8.1 16.2%

Final

(WPE-adj)

Table 10

Urban 10.8 15.5 35.7% 40.9% 4.7 44%

Suburb 22.1 26.4 49.0% 48.0% 4.3 19%

Rural 17.2 15.9 59.0% 54.1% -1.3 -8%

Total 50.1 57.8 48.4% 47.2% 7.7 15.4%

True Vote

Table 5

(122.3m)

Urban 10.8 14.8 35.7% 39.0% 4.0 37%

Suburb 22.1 26.4 49.0% 48.0% 4.3 19%

Rural 17.2 15.6 59.0% 53.0% -1.6 -9%

Total 50.1 56.8 48.4% 46.4% 6.7 13.4%

Final 2000 NEP (Table 1):

Gore urban margin: 7.8m

Bush suburban margin: 0.9m

Bush small town/rural margin: 6.4m

Final 2004 NEP (Table 2):

Kerry urban margin: 3.5m (-4.3m)

Bush suburban margin: 2.8m (+1.9m)

Bush small town/rural margin: 3.9m (-2.5m)

7:33pm 2004 NEP (Table 4)

Kerry urban margin: 6.0m (-1.8m)

Kerry suburban margin: 0.0m (+0.9m)

Bush small town/rural margin: 2.4m (-4.2m)

2004 True Vote (Table 5):

Kerry urban margin: 8.2m (+0.4m)

Kerry suburban margin: 1.7m (+2.6m)

Bush small town/rural margin: 2.1m (-4.3m)

Implausible Changes in Final NEP Bush shares from 2000 to 2004:

1. 9% increase in the Urban vote (Democratic strongholds)

2. 3% increase in the Suburban vote (trending Democratic)

3. 3% decrease in the Small Town/Rural vote (Republican strongholds)

The graphs display Bush vote share statistics by location size.

Vote share (5 categories)

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2004NEPSensitivity_28869_image001.png

Vote share (3 categories and national)

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2004UrbanLegend_10764_image001.png

Vote count (in millions)

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2004UrbanLegend_17168_image001.png

Vote change from 2000 (in millions)

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2004UrbanLegend_14794_image001.png

Vote percentage change from 2000

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2004UrbanLegend_15606_image001.png

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Table 1

2000 Final NEP (matched to recorded vote)

Vote Share Votes (mil.)

Votes Mix Gore Bush Nader Gore Bush Other Margin

Big Cities 9.4 9% 71% 26% 3% 6.7 2.5 0.3 4.2

Small Cities 21.0 20% 57% 40% 3% 11.9 8.4 0.6 3.6

Suburbs 45.0 43% 47% 49% 4% 21.2 22.1 1.8 -0.9

SmTwns 5.2 5% 38% 59% 3% 2.0 3.1 0.2 -0.1

Rural 24.1 23% 37% 59% 4% 8.9 14.2 1.0 -5.3

Total 104.8 100% 48.4% 47.9% 3.7% 50.7 50.3 3.8 0.5

Urban 30.4 29% 61% 36% 3% 18.6 10.9 0.9 7.8

Suburbs 45.0 43% 47% 49% 4% 21.2 22.1 1.8 -0.9

Rural 29.3 28% 37% 59% 4% 10.9 17.3 1.1 -6.4

Total 104.8 100% 48.4% 47.9% 3.7% 50.7 50.3 3.8 0.5

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Table 2

2004 Final NEP (matched to recorded vote)

11/03 at 2:04pm

5 categories

Vote Share Votes (mil.)

Size Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other Margin

Big City 15.9 13% 61% 39% 0% 9.7 6.2 0.0 3.5

Small City 22.0 18% 49% 49% 2% 10.8 10.8 0.4 0.0

Suburbs 55.0 45% 47% 52% 1% 25.9 28.6 0.6 -2.8

Small Town 9.8 8% 48% 50% 2% 4.7 4.9 0.2 -0.2

Rural 19.6 16% 40% 59% 1% 7.8 11.6 0.2 -3.7

TOTAL 122.3 100% 48.2% 50.7% 1.1% 58.9 62.0 1.4 -3.2

3 categories

Urban 37.9 31% 54.0% 44.8% 1.2% 20.5 17.0 0.4 3.5

Suburbs 55.0 45% 47.0% 52.0% 1.0% 25.9 28.6 0.6 -2.8

Rural 29.4 24% 42.7% 56.0% 1.3% 12.5 16.5 0.4 -3.9

TOTAL 122.3 100% 48.2% 50.7% 1.1% 58.9 62.0 1.4 -3.2

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Table 3

Final NEP Vote share Changes: 2000 to 2004

5 categories

Vote Share Votes (mil.)

Votes Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other Margin

Big City 6.5 4% -10% 13% -3% 3.0 3.7 -0.3 -0.7

Small City 1.1 -2% -8% 9% -1% -1.2 2.4 -0.2 -3.6

Suburbs 10 2% 0% 3% -3% 4.7 6.6 -1.3 -1.9

Small Town 4.5 3% 10% -9% -1% 2.7 1.8 0.0 0.9

Rural Areas -4.5 -7% 3% 0% -3% -1.1 -2.7 -0.8 1.6

Change 17.6 0% -5% 16% -11% 8.1 11.8 -2.5 -3.7

Urban 7.5 2% -7% 9% -2% 1.8 6.2 -0.5 -4.3

Suburbs 10.0 2% 0% 3% -3% 4.7 6.6 -1.3 -1.9

SmTwn/Rural 0.0 -4% 5% -3% -2% 1.6 -0.9 -0.7 2.5

Change 17.6 0% -2% 9% -7% 8.1 11.8 -2.5 -3.7

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Table 4

2004 NEP (11027 respondents)

11/02 at 7:33pm

5 Categories

Location Votes Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other Margin

Big City 15.9 13% 64% 35% 1% 10.2 5.6 0.2 4.6

Small City 23.2 19% 52% 46% 2% 12.1 10.7 0.5 1.4

Suburbs 53.8 44% 49% 49% 2% 26.4 26.4 1.1 0.0

Small Town 9.8 8% 51% 47% 2% 5.0 4.6 0.2 0.4

Rural 19.6 16% 42% 56% 2% 8.2 11.0 0.4 -2.8

TOTAL 122.3 100% 50.6% 47.6% 1.9% 61.8 58.2 2.3 3.6

3 Categories

Urban 39.1 32% 56.9% 41.5% 1.6% 22.2 16.2 0.6 6.0

Suburbs 53.8 44% 49.0% 49.0% 2.0% 26.4 26.4 1.1 0.0

Rural 29.4 24% 45.0% 53.0% 2.0% 13.2 15.6 0.6 -2.4

TOTAL 122.3 100% 50.6% 47.6% 1.9% 61.8 58.2 2.3 3.6

Sensitivity Analysis I

Kerry Urban Share

SmTwn 54% 55% 56% 57% 58% 59% 60%

Rural Kerry National Share

41% 48.6% 48.9% 49.3% 49.6% 49.9% 50.2% 50.5%

42% 48.9% 49.2% 49.5% 49.8% 50.1% 50.4% 50.7%

43% 49.1% 49.4% 49.7% 50.0% 50.4% 50.7% 51.0%

44% 49.4% 49.7% 50.0% 50.3% 50.6% 50.9% 51.2%

45% 49.6% 49.9% 50.2% 50.5% 50.8% 51.1% 51.5%

46% 49.8% 50.1% 50.5% 50.8% 51.1% 51.4% 51.7%

____________________________________________________________________

Table 5

2004 NEP (adjusted)

Size of Community

Vote shares adjusted to match True Vote (Table 7)

125.74m total votes cast (Census)

Vote Share Votes (mil.)

Votes Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other Margin

Big City 16.35 13% 67% 32% 1% 11.0 5.2 0.2 5.7

Small City 22.63 18% 55% 44% 1% 12.5 10.0 0.2 2.5

Suburbs 56.58 45% 51% 48% 1% 28.9 27.2 0.6 1.7

Small Town 10.06 8% 52% 47% 1% 5.2 4.7 0.1 0.5

Rural 20.12 16% 43% 56% 1% 8.7 11.3 0.2 -2.6

Total 125.74 100% 52.6% 46.4% 1.0% 66.1 58.3 1.3 7.8

Urban 38.98 31% 60% 39% 1% 23.4 15.2 0.4 8.2

Suburbs 56.58 45% 51% 48% 1% 28.9 27.2 0.6 1.7

SmTwn/Rural 30.18 24% 46% 53% 1% 13.9 16.0 0.3 -2.1

Total 125.74 100% 52.6% 46.4% 1.0% 66.1 58.3 1.3 7.8

Sensitivity Analysis II

Kerry Share of Urban

SmallTwn 56% 58% 60% 62% 64%

Rural Kerry National Share

48% 51.8% 52.5% 53.1% 53.7% 54.3%

47% 51.6% 52.2% 52.8% 53.5% 54.1%

46% 51.4% 52.0% 52.6% 53.2% 53.8%

45% 51.1% 51.7% 52.4% 53.0% 53.6%

44% 50.9% 51.5% 52.1% 52.7% 53.4%

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Table 6

Vote Share Summary

2000 Final 2004 7:33pm Final True Vote

Gore Bush Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Kerry Bush

Urban 61% 36% 57% 41% 54% 45% 60% 39%

Suburb 47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 52% 51% 48%

Rural 37% 59% 45% 53% 43% 56% 46% 53%

Total 48.4% 47.9% 50.5% 47.6% 48.1% 50.7% 52.6% 46.4%

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Table 7

National Exit Poll

True Vote Calculation

Voted 2000 feasible weights

Assumptions:

125.74m votes cast (2004 Census)

Election 2000 voters:

95% turnout in 2004

0.87% annual mortality

12:22am NEP Vote shares

Vote Share Votes (mil.)

Votes Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other

DNV 27.02 21.5% 57% 41% 2% 15.40 11.08 0.54

Gore 48.08 38.2% 91% 8% 1% 43.75 3.85 0.48

Bush 47.56 37.8% 10% 90% 0% 4.76 42.80 0.00

Other 3.08 2.5% 71% 21% 8% 2.19 0.65 0.25

Total 125.7 100% 52.6% 46.4% 1.0% 66.1 58.48 1.3

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Table 8

Size of Location

WPE (Within Precinct Error)

The largest discrepancies (WPE) were in the Suburbs (4.5m) and Cities (3.3m).

The deviations were calculated from the

a) Final NEP (matched to the vote) and

b) Final NEP with WPE-adjusted location vote shares.

Note the match in vote shares between the 7:33pm NEP (Kerry 51.40-47.47%) and WPE-adjusted Final NEP (Kerry 51.73-47.15%).

Location WPE

Size Mix Mean Median Abs Precincts

BigCity 13% 7.9 -5.9 12.1 105

SmallCity 18% 8.5 -7.7 14.3 236

Suburb 45% 8.1 -7.9 14.3 487

SmallTown 8% 4.9 -5 12.8 126

Rural 16% 3.6 -3.6 13.4 296

Wtd Avg 100% 7.1 -6.7 13.75 1250

_____________________________________________________________________

Table 9

Final NEP: WPE-adjusted

(Census total votes cast)

Vote (mil.)

WPE Vote Mix Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other Margin

Big City 7.9% 16.3 13% 65.0% 35.0% 0% 10.6 5.7 0.0 4.9

Sm City 8.5% 22.7 18% 53.3% 44.7% 2% 12.1 10.1 0.5 1.9

Suburbs 8.1% 56.6 45% 51.0% 48.0% 1% 28.9 27.1 0.6 1.8

SmTwn 4.9% 10.1 8% 50.5% 47.5% 2% 5.1 4.8 0.2 0.3

Rural 3.6% 20.1 16% 41.8% 57.2% 1% 8.4 11.5 0.2 -3.1

Total 7.1% 125.7 100% 51.7% 47.2% 1.1% 65.0 59.3 1.4 5.8

_____________________________________________________________________

Table 10

Final NEP

Location-size Vote shares

WPE-adjusted

Vote Mix WPE Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other Margin

Big City 15.9 13% 7.9 65.0% 35.1% 0.0% 10.3 5.6 0.0 4.7

Small City 22.0 18% 8.5 53.3% 44.8% 2.0% 11.7 9.9 0.4 1.8

Suburbs 55.0 45% 8.1 51.1% 48.0% 1.0% 28.1 26.4 0.6 1.7

Small Town 9.8 8% 4.9 50.5% 46.6% 2.0% 4.9 4.7 0.2 0.2

Rural 19.6 16% 3.6 41.8% 57.2% 1.0% 8.2 11.2 0.2 -3.0

TOTAL 122.3 100% 7.1 51.7% 47.2% 1.1% 63.2 57.8 1.4 5.4

Urban 37.9 31% 8.3 58.0% 40.9% 1.1% 22.0 15.5 0.4 6.5

Suburban 55.0 45% 8.1 51.1% 48.0% 1.1% 28.1 26.4 0.6 1.7

Rural 29.4 24% 4.0 44.6% 54.1% 1.4% 13.1 15.9 0.4 -2.8

Total 122.3 100% 7.1 51.7% 47.2% 1.1% 63.2 57.8 1.4 5.4

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Table 11

Regional NEP

7:33am update 2pm Final

Vote Mix Kerry Bush Other Mix Kerry Bush Other

East 26.91 22% 58% 41% 1% 22% 56% 43% 1%

Midwest 31.80 26% 50% 49% 1% 26% 48% 51% 1%

South 37.91 31% 44% 54% 2% 32% 42% 58% 0%

West 25.68 21% 53% 45% 2% 20% 50% 49% 1%

Total 100% 50.5% 48.0% 1.5% 100% 48.2% 51.1% 0.7%

Vote 122.3 61.8 58.6 1.9 59.0 62.5 0.8

_____________________________________________________________________

Table 12

Regional NEP

WPE-adjusted aggregate

Vote Mix Kerry Bush Other

East 27.2 22.2% 60.3% 39.0% 0.7%

Midwest 30.9 25.3% 51.4% 47.8% 0.8%

South 39.3 32.2% 44.9% 54.4% 0.7%

West 24.8 20.3% 54.2% 44.4% 1.4%

Total 122.3 100% 51.8% 47.3% 0.9%

63.3 57.8 1.2

____________________________________________________________________

Table 13

Number of States where Exit Poll MoE

was exceeded for Bush

(zero cluster effect):

By Time Zone By Region

East 14 of 21 East 8 of 12

Central 7 of 16 Midwest 6 of 12

Mountain 5 of 8 South 7 of 13

Pacific 3 of 5 West 8 of 13

_____________________________________________________________________

Table 14

Regional Analysis

EV Region Electoral vote

Vote Region Popular vote (in thousands)

KE Kerry Exit Poll Vote

KV Kerry Recorded Vote

KEP Kerry Exit Poll share

KVP Kerry Recorded share

WPE Within Precinct Error (average) = 2*(KEP-KVP)

KEV Kerry Electoral vote (based on KE)

Region EV Vote Mix WPE KE KV KEP KVP KEV

East 122 27,177 22.2% 9.21% 16,376 15,124 60.3% 55.7% 117

Midwest 124 30,940 25.3% 5.96% 15,889 14,966 51.4% 48.4% 85

South 168 39,324 32.2% 5.66% 17,662 16,550 44.9% 42.1% 27

West 124 24,844 20.3% 8.18% 13,461 12,445 54.2% 50.1% 96

Total 538 122,284 100% 7.0% 63,388 59,085 51.8% 48.3% 325

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Table 15

State Exit Poll Vote shares

(based on average WPE discrepancies )

KEV Kerry Electoral vote (based on KE)

Vote Total state recorded vote

KE Kerry Exit Poll Share

KV Kerry Recorded Share

BE Bush Exit Poll Share

BV Bush Recorded Share

Kdiff= KE - KV

WPE = Within Precinct Error = (KE-KV)-(BE-BV)

Within Precinct Error (WPE) = average difference in margin between the exit poll and recorded vote for all sampled precincts in a state.

MoE = State Exit Poll Margin of Error

Probability of State Exit Poll Discrepancy

Kdiff/MoE Prob

0.0 50%

0.5 14%

0.8 6%

1.0 2.50%

1.5 0.16%

1.7 0.03%

* Kdiff > 1.0* MoE (less than 2.50% probability)

** Kdiff > 1.5* MoE (less than 0.16% probability)

State Exit Polls

WPE vs. Recorded Vote

Electoral Vote Probability Analysis

State KEV Vote WPE KE KV BE BV Diff MoE Kdiff/MoE

Total 325 122.3 7.09 51.81 48.27 47.19 50.73 2.92 2.71 1.08

EAST

CT** 7 1,578 15.7 62.2 54.3 36.1 43.9 7.85 3.27 2.40

DC 3 378 3.4 90.9 89.2 37.8 9.3 1.70 1.92 0.88

DE** 3 226 15.9 61.3 53.3 37.8 45.8 7.95 3.48 2.28

MA 12 2,912 5.8 64.8 61.9 33.9 36.8 2.90 3.10 0.93

MD* 10 2,386 8.1 60.0 55.9 38.9 42.9 4.05 3.07 1.32

ME 4 741 3.8 55.5 53.6 42.7 44.6 1.90 2.20 0.86

NH** 4 678 13.6 57.0 50.2 42.1 48.9 6.80 2.27 3.00

NJ** 15 3,611 9.7 57.8 52.9 41.4 46.2 4.85 2.49 1.94

NY** 31 7,391 11.4 64.1 58.4 34.4 40.1 5.70 2.47 2.31

PA** 21 5,770 8.8 55.3 50.9 44.0 48.4 4.40 2.22 1.98

RI 4 437 4.7 61.8 59.4 36.3 38.7 2.35 3.30 0.71

VT** 3 312 15.0 66.4 58.9 31.3 38.8 7.50 3.56 2.11

WV* 756 (5.8) 40.3 43.2 59.0 56.1 -2.90 2.35 -1.23

MIDWEST

IA 7 1,507 3.0 50.7 49.2 48.4 49.9 1.50 1.96 0.77

IL 21 5,276 4.4 57.0 54.8 42.3 44.5 2.20 2.60 0.85

IN 2,468 1.5 40.0 39.3 59.2 59.9 0.75 3.17 0.24

KS 1,187 1.7 37.5 36.6 61.2 62.0 0.85 3.65 0.23

MI** 17 4,839 6.3 54.4 51.2 44.7 47.8 3.15 1.98 1.59

MN** 10 2,829 9.3 55.7 51.1 43.0 47.6 4.65 2.09 2.22

MO* 2,731 5.8 49.0 46.1 50.4 53.3 2.90 2.11 1.38

ND 313 (5.2) 32.9 35.5 65.5 62.9 -2.60 3.63 -0.72

NE* 778 8.1 36.7 32.7 61.8 65.9 4.05 3.37 1.20

OH** 20 5,626 10.9 54.2 48.7 45.4 50.8 5.45 2.21 2.47

SD 388 (4.2) 36.3 38.4 62.0 59.9 -2.10 2.45 -0.86

WI* 10 2,997 4.7 52.0 49.7 47.0 49.3 2.35 2.08 1.13

SOUTH

AL** 1,883 11.3 42.5 36.8 56.8 62.5 5.65 3.57 1.58

AR 2,021 0.5 44.8 44.5 54.1 54.3 0.25 2.61 0.10

FL** 27 7,610 7.6 50.9 47.1 48.3 52.1 3.80 1.84 2.07

GA 3,301 2.2 42.5 41.4 56.9 58.0 1.10 2.48 0.44

KY 1,796 (0.1) 39.6 39.7 59.6 59.6 -0.05 3.00 -0.02

LA 1,943 3.8 44.1 42.2 54.8 56.7 1.90 2.38 0.80

MS** 1,139 11.3 45.8 40.2 53.4 59.0 5.65 3.44 1.64

NC** 3,501 11.3 49.2 43.6 50.4 56.0 5.65 2.10 2.69

OK 1,464 (1.9) 33.5 34.4 66.5 65.6 -0.95 2.38 -0.40

SC** 1,618 10.0 45.9 40.9 53.0 58.0 5.00 2.34 2.13

TN 2,437 0.5 42.8 42.5 56.5 56.8 0.25 2.29 0.11

TX* 7,411 4.8 40.6 38.2 58.7 61.1 2.40 2.31 1.04

VA** 3,199 7.9 49.4 45.5 49.7 53.7 3.95 2.59 1.53

WEST

AK** 313 9.6 40.3 35.5 56.3 61.1 4.80 3.18 1.51

AZ* 1,051 4.6 46.7 44.4 52.6 54.9 2.30 2.27 1.01

CA** 55 12,420 10.9 59.8 54.3 38.9 44.4 5.45 2.22 2.45

CO** 9 2,130 6.1 50.1 47.0 48.6 51.7 3.05 1.95 1.56

HI 4 429 4.7 56.4 54.0 42.9 45.3 2.35 4.38 0.54

ID 598 1.0 30.8 30.3 67.9 68.4 0.50 3.91 0.13

MT 451 (1.8) 37.7 38.6 60.0 59.1 -0.90 3.78 -0.24

NM** 5 756 7.8 52.9 49.0 45.9 49.8 3.90 2.22 1.76

NV** 5 830 10.1 52.9 47.9 45.4 50.5 5.05 2.13 2.37

OR 7 1,837 0.0 51.3 51.3 47.2 47.2 0.00 3.00 0.00

UT* 928 6.4 29.2 26.0 68.3 71.5 3.20 3.18 1.01

WA** 11 2,859 8.4 57.0 52.8 41.4 45.6 4.20 2.12 1.98

WY 243 4.3 31.2 29.1 66.7 68.9 2.15 3.50 0.61

_____________________________________________________________________

The New York Urban Legend

Table 16

Pre-election and Exit Polls

New York Kerry Bush Nader

Recorded vote 58.5% 40.2% 1.3%

Final pre-election poll 57 39 1

Projection 59 40 1

Edison-Mitofsky Exit Poll Measures

WPE (11.4) 64.1% 34.4% 1.5%

Best Estimate 65.1 33.8 1.1

Composite 63.1 35.5 1.4

Table 17

Average Voting Machine WPE for all Exit Poll Precincts

Mechanical (Lever) voting machine precincts had the highest mean Within Precinct Error (-10.6%).

Paper ballot precincts had the smallest mean WPE (-2.2%)

New York votes 99% by Lever.

Polling	Place	WPE mean	WPE median	Number precincts
Paper	Ballot	-2.2	-0.9	40
*Mechanical*	*Voting*	*-10.6*	*-10.3*	*118*
Touch	Screen	-7.1	-7	360
Punch	Cards	-6.6	-7.3	158
Optical	Scan	-6.1	-5.5	573

________________________________________________________________________

Table 18

New York County Vote Changes

Vote Change            Kerry          Bush

Total NYS              246k   6.6%    573k   25.8%

Top 7 Counties         129k   5.4%    311k   41.3%

         Final Recorded Vote

                 Total     Dem     Other    Bush              Dem     Other    Bush

         2004     7,391    4,314    114     2,963            58.4%     1.5%     40.1%

         2000     6,822    4,108    311     2,405            60.2%     4.6%     35.2%

         Change     569      206   -197       558            -1.8%    -3.1%      4.9%

         Preliminary Recorded Vote

         2004     6,892    3,993    104      2,796            57.9%    1.5%     40.6%

         2000     6,270    3,747    300      2,222            59.8%    4.8%     35.4%

         Change     622      246   -196        573            -1.9%   -3.3%      5.2%

         Change from Preliminary to Final

         2004     499      321      10       167              64.3%     2.1%    33.6%

         2000     552      361      11       183              65.4%     1.9%    32.7%

Table 19

Seven Largest NYC Area Counties

                       2000                                 2004                                Vote Change            Percent Change

County       Precincts Total    GORE     BUSH     NADER    Total    KERRY    BUSH     NADER    KERRY         BUSH     NADER    KERRY    BUSH

Total          7779     3093     69.6%    26.5%    4.1%     3442     66.0%    32.9%    1.1%     129         311      -89      5.4%     41.3%

Brooklyn       1888     557      80%      16%      4%       630      74%      25%      0.8%     23.3         67.2     -17.1    5%       75%

Suffolk        1006     536      53%      42%      5%       618      49%      49%      2.1%     18.0         77.7     -13.7    6%       35%

Nassau         1070     554      58%      39%      4%       597      52%      47%      1.0%     -6.7         64.5     -14.7    -2%      30%

Manhattan      1100     522      79%      15%      6%       572      82%      17%      1.4%     59.1         16.4     -25.1    14%      21%

Queens         1470     512      74%      23%      3%       559      71%      28%      0.8%     18.3         41.3     -11.9    5%       36%

Bronx           912      279      86%      12%      2%       318      83%      17%      0.6%     22.8        19.7     -3.9     10%      59%

Staten Island   333      133      52%      45%      3%       148      42%      57%      0.8%     -6.2        24.3     -2.9     -9%      40%

Table 20

New York County Vote changes from 2000-2004

                        2000                               2004                                Vote Change            Percent Change

County       Precincts Total    GORE     BUSH     NADER    Total    KERRY    BUSH     NADER    KERRY         BUSH     NADER    KERRY    BUSH

Total         15553    6270     59.8%    35.4%    4.8%     6892     57.9%    40.6%    1.5%     247         573      -197     6.6%     25.8%

Brooklyn      1888     557      80%      16%      4%       630      74%      25%      0.8%     23.3         67.2     -17.1    5%       75%

Suffolk       1006     536      53%      42%      5%       618      49%      49%      2.1%     18.0         77.7     -13.7    6%       35%

Nassau        1070     554      58%      39%      4%       597      52%      47%      1.0%     -6.7         64.5     -14.7    -2%      30%

Manhattan     1100     522      79%      15%      6%       572      82%      17%      1.4%     59.1         16.4     -25.1    14%      21%

Queens        1470     512      74%      23%      3%       559      71%      28%      0.8%     18.3         41.3     -11.9    5%       36%

Erie          1007     384      57%      37%      6%       411      56%      42%      2.2%     13.3         27.7     -13.5    6%       19%

Westchester    948      306      58%      37%      4%       377      58%      41%      1.5%     39.5         38.9     -7.3     22%      34%

Monroe         792      300      51%      44%      5%       330      50%      48%      1.6%     13.9         26.3     -10.2    9%       20%

Bronx          912      279      86%      12%      2%       318      83%      17%      0.6%     22.8         19.7     -3.9     10%      59%

Onondaga       485      190      54%      41%      5%       199      54%      44%      1.8%     5.4         10.1     -6.5     5%       13%

Staten Island  333      133      52%      45%      3%       148      42%      57%      0.8%     -6.2         24.3     -2.9     -9%      40%

Albany         327      130      60%      34%      6%       136      60%      38%      1.9%     3.8         6.9      -5.6     5%       16%

Orange         284      118      46%      50%      5%       135      44%      55%      1.3%     5.1         16.0     -3.7     9%       27%

Rockland       250      117      56%      40%      4%       122      49%      50%      1.5%     -6.0         13.7     -2.7     -9%      29%

Dutchess       239      105      47%      47%      6%       114      47%      52%      1.6%     4.0         9.7      -4.7     8%       20%

Saratoga       168      89       45%      50%      5%       100      45%      53%      1.8%     4.7         8.3      -2.3     12%      19%

Niagara        180      87       52%      43%      5%       90       49%      49%      1.9%     -1.2         5.9      -2.7     -3%      16%

Oneida         209      87       45%      49%      5%       89       42%      55%      2.3%     -1.7         6.5      -2.6     -4%      15%

Broome         193      81       52%      43%      6%       84       50%      48%      2.0%     0.0         5.7      -3.0     0%       16%

Ulster         161      72       48%      44%      8%       84       54%      43%      2.3%     10.6         4.8      -4.1     30%      15%

Rensselaer     136      64       51%      43%      6%       67       49%      48%      2.2%     0.5         4.8      -2.4     2%       17%

Schenectady    131      63       53%      42%      5%       65       52%      47%      1.8%     0.0         4.0      -2.1     0%       15%

Chataqua       135      55       46%      49%      5%       57       45%      53%      1.9%     0.0         3.0      -1.4     0%       11%

Oswego         107      45       47%      48%      5%       49       47%      51%      2.0%     1.8         2.9      -1.3     9%       13%

Ontario        88       42       44%      51%      5%       47       42%      56%      1.6%     1.1         4.5      -1.4     6%       21%

Putnam         72       40       44%      51%      5%       44       41%      58%      1.1%     0.6         4.7      -1.7     3%       23%

Steuben        82       38       36%      59%      4%       39       34%      64%      1.7%     -0.3         2.9      -1.0     -2%      13%

Wayne          67       36       39%      56%      4%       39       38%      60%      1.7%     0.4         2.9      -1.0     3%       14%

Tompkins       67       37       54%      34%      12%      38       64%      34%      2.4%     4.8         0.6      -3.6     25%      5%

StLawrence     99       37       54%      41%      5%       38       55%      44%      1.9%     0.8         1.3      -1.1     4%       9%

Chemung        82       35       46%      50%      4%       38       43%      54%      2.4%     0.5         3.3      -0.6     3%       19%

Jefferson      83       27       42%      47%      10%      35       43%      55%      2.1%     3.7         6.3      -2.1     32%      49%

Cayuga         61       30       49%      45%      6%       32       50%      48%      2.2%     1.6         2.3      -1.0     11%      17%

Catargus       74       32       40%      55%      5%       32       39%      59%      1.8%     -0.3         1.5      -1.0     -3%      8%

Clinton        64       29       50%      44%      6%       31       52%      46%      2.1%     1.9         1.6      -1.0     13%      12%

Livingston     57       26       39%      56%      6%       29       38%      60%      2.1%     1.4         3.4      -0.8     14%      24%

Sullivan       63       25       50%      45%      5%       28       49%      50%      1.9%     1.0         2.5      -0.8     8%       22%

Madison        51       26       42%      52%      5%       28       43%      55%      1.8%     0.9         1.7      -0.8     8%       12%

Warren         57       26       43%      52%      5%       28       43%      55%      2.0%     0.7         1.9      -0.8     7%       14%

Herkimer       61       25       44%      51%      5%       26       41%      57%      2.0%     -0.5         1.9      -0.7     -4%      15%

Columbia       54       26       47%      46%      7%       26       54%      43%      2.1%     1.7      -0.8      -1.4     14%      -7%

Genesee        53       26       40%      55%      5%       26       37%      61%      1.6%     -0.8         1.4      -1.0     -8%      10%

Otsego         58       23       45%      48%      7%       25       47%      51%      2.0%     0.8         1.3      -1.0     8%       11%

Washington     51       22       41%      53%      6%       23       42%      56%      2.4%     0.8         1.4      -0.7     9%       12%

Greene         52       19       40%      54%      6%       23       39%      59%      2.0%     1.3         3.2      -0.7     17%      31%

Tioga          46       21       41%      54%      5%       22       40%      58%      1.7%     0.4         1.4      -0.6     4%       13%

Cortland       42       20       47%      47%      6%       21       47%      51%      1.9%     0.7         1.5      -0.7     7%       16%

Fulton         49       21       43%      53%      4%       21       41%      57%      1.9%     -0.4         0.6      -0.5     -4%      6%

Delaware       59       19       42%      53%      5%       20       40%      58%      2.4%     0.2         1.6      -0.5     3%       16%

Montgomery     49       20       49%      47%      4%       20       44%      54%      1.9%     -0.9         1.4      -0.4     -9%      15%

Chenang        39       19       45%      50%      5%       20       43%      55%      2.0%     -0.1         1.3      -0.6     -1%      14%

Allegany       41       17       35%      61%      5%       18       34%      64%      1.7%     0.0         1.0      -0.5     0%       10%

Essex          39       16       44%      49%      7%       17       46%      52%      2.2%     0.6         0.9      -0.7     8%       11%

Wyoming        39       17       35%      60%      5%       17       34%      65%      1.4%     -0.1         0.9      -0.5     -2%      9%

Franklin       49       16       50%      45%      5%       17       51%      47%      1.9%     0.6         0.7      -0.5     7%       9%

Orleans        40       15       38%      58%      4%       16       35%      63%      1.6%     -0.1         1.2      -0.4     -2%      13%

Seneca         27       13       48%      47%      5%       14       45%      52%      2.1%     0.1         1.3      -0.4     2%       21%

Schoharie      29       13       39%      55%      5%       13       39%      59%      2.1%     0.2         0.9      -0.4     4%       14%

Lewis          30       10       40%      56%      4%       11       40%      58%      1.9%     0.3         0.6      -0.2     8%       10%

Yates          20       9        39%      55%      5%       10       39%      60%      1.6%     0.2         0.7      -0.3     5%       15%

Schuyler       17       8        40%      54%      6%       8        40%      58%      1.9%     0.2         0.7      -0.3     8%       18%

Hamilton       11       3        29%      64%      7%       3        32%      66%      1.6%     0.1         0.1      -0.2     15%      6%

________________________________________________________________________

Table 21

NY 2000-2004 County Vote Margin Analysis

The 2000 data includes the first 6.27 of 6.82m recorded votes (Gore won 65.4% of the final 552,000)

The 2004 data includes the first 6.89 of 7.39m recorded votes (Kerry won 64.3% of the final 499,000).

Vote Change            Kerry          Bush

Total NYS              246k   6.6%    573k   25.8%

Top 7 Counties         129k   5.4%    311k   41.3%

         Final Recorded Vote

                 Total     Dem     Other    Bush              Dem     Other    Bush

         2004     7,391    4,314    114     2,963            58.4%     1.5%     40.1%

         2000     6,822    4,108    311     2,405            60.2%     4.6%     35.2%

         Change     569      206   -197       558            -1.8%    -3.1%      4.9%

         Preliminary Recorded Vote

         2004     6,892    3,993    104      2,796            57.9%    1.5%     40.6%

         2000     6,270    3,747    300      2,222            59.8%    4.8%     35.4%

         Change     622      246   -196        573            -1.9%   -3.3%      5.2%

         Change from Preliminary to Final

         2004     499      321      10       167              64.3%     2.1%    33.6%

         2000     552      361      11       183              65.4%     1.9%    32.7%

Analysis of Changes in Margin

                  2000                      Gore             2004                      Kerry            Increase in Bush

County            Gore    Bush     Nader    Margin           Kerry    Bush     Nader    Margin            Margin   Vote

Albany           59.7%    34.0%    6.3%     25.7%            60.2%    37.8%    1.9%     22.4%             3.3%     6922

Allegany         34.7%    60.5%    4.8%     -25.8%           33.8%    64.5%    1.7%     -30.6%            4.8%     1031

Bronx            86.0%    11.9%    2.1%     74.1%            82.7%    16.7%    0.6%     66.0%             8.0%     19734

Brooklyn         79.9%    16.1%    4.0%     63.9%            74.3%    24.8%    0.8%     49.5%             14.4%    67235

Broome           51.8%    42.5%    5.7%     9.3%             50.1%    47.9%    2.0%     2.2%              7.0%     5684

Catargus         40.4%    54.6%    5.1%     -14.2%           39.2%    59.0%    1.8%     -19.8%            5.6%     1453

Cayuga           49.3%    44.9%    5.8%     4.4%             49.9%    47.9%    2.2%     2.0%              2.4%     2266

Chataqua         46.3%    49.1%    4.5%     -2.8%            45.1%    53.1%    1.9%     -8.0%             5.3%     3038

Chemung          46.1%    49.8%    4.2%     -3.7%            43.4%    54.3%    2.4%     -10.9%            7.2%     3327

Chenang          44.8%    49.7%    5.5%     -4.8%            43.0%    55.0%    2.0%     -12.0%            7.1%     1343

Clinton          50.4%    43.9%    5.7%     6.4%             52.4%    45.5%    2.1%     6.9%             -0.4%     1565

Columbia         46.9%    45.8%    7.3%     1.1%             54.4%    43.5%    2.1%     10.9%            -9.8%     -829

Cortland         47.1%    47.1%    5.9%     0.0%             47.1%    51.0%    1.9%     -3.8%             3.8%     1498

Delaware         41.5%    53.2%    5.2%     -11.7%           39.8%    57.7%    2.4%     -17.9%            6.2%     1628

Dutchess         46.7%    47.1%    6.2%     -0.4%            46.5%    51.9%    1.6%     -5.3%             4.9%     9666

Erie             56.8%    37.4%    5.9%     19.4%            56.2%    41.6%    2.2%     14.6%             4.8%     27705

Essex            44.2%    49.0%    6.8%     -4.8%            45.7%    52.2%    2.2%     -6.5%             1.7%     912

Franklin         50.1%    44.6%    5.3%     5.5%             51.4%    46.7%    1.9%     4.7%              0.8%     678

Fulton           42.7%    53.1%    4.2%     -10.5%           41.3%    56.8%    1.9%     -15.6%            5.1%     644

Genesee          39.8%    54.9%    5.2%     -15.1%           37.2%    61.2%    1.6%     -23.9%            8.9%     1393

Greene           40.0%    53.8%    6.2%     -13.7%           39.2%    58.8%    2.0%     -19.7%            5.9%     3237

Hamilton         28.8%    64.3%    6.9%     -35.5%           32.2%    66.2%    1.6%     -34.0%           -1.5%     131

Herkimer         44.1%    51.1%    4.8%     -7.1%            41.0%    57.0%    2.0%     -16.0%            9.0%     1910

Jefferson        42.3%    47.4%    10.3%    -5.1%            43.2%    54.7%    2.1%     -11.5%            6.4%     6343

Lewis            39.7%    56.0%    4.3%     -16.4%           40.3%    57.9%    1.9%     -17.6%            1.3%     575

Livingston       38.6%    55.9%    5.5%     -17.3%           38.1%    59.8%    2.1%     -21.7%            4.3%     3363

Madison          42.5%    52.3%    5.2%     -9.8%            43.0%    55.2%    1.8%     -12.2%            2.4%     1686

Manhattan        78.5%    15.1%    6.3%     63.4%            81.9%    16.7%    1.4%     65.3%            -1.9%     16421

Monroe           50.8%    44.1%    5.1%     6.6%             50.4%    48.1%    1.6%     2.3%              4.4%     26322

Montgomery       49.3%    46.9%    3.8%     2.5%             44.5%    53.6%    1.9%     -9.1%             11.6%    1388

Nassau           57.6%    38.7%    3.7%     18.9%            52.3%    46.7%    1.0%     5.6%              13.3%    64523

Niagara          51.7%    43.3%    5.0%     8.4%             49.2%    48.9%    1.9%     0.3%              8.1%     5919

Oneida           45.4%    49.3%    5.3%     -3.9%            42.3%    55.4%    2.3%     -13.1%            9.2%     6538

Onondaga         53.8%    40.9%    5.3%     12.9%            54.1%    44.1%    1.8%     9.9%              3.0%     10102

Ontario          43.6%    51.4%    5.0%     -7.9%            42.0%    56.4%    1.6%     -14.4%            6.6%     4541

Orange           45.8%    49.6%    4.6%     -3.8%            43.6%    55.0%    1.3%     -11.4%            7.6%     16027

Orleans          37.8%    58.0%    4.2%     -20.2%           35.5%    63.0%    1.6%     -27.5%            7.3%     1150

Oswego           47.0%    48.1%    4.9%     -1.0%            47.4%    50.6%    2.0%     -3.1%             2.1%     2869

Otsego           45.4%    48.1%    6.5%     -2.7%            46.8%    51.2%    2.0%     -4.4%             1.7%     1252

Putnam           43.5%    51.0%    5.5%     -7.4%            41.3%    57.5%    1.1%     -16.2%            8.8%     4697

Queens           74.2%    22.5%    3.2%     51.7%            71.2%    28.0%    0.8%     43.2%             8.5%     41325

Rensselaer       50.9%    43.2%    6.0%     7.7%             49.4%    48.4%    2.2%     1.0%              6.7%     4817

Rockland         55.9%    40.2%    3.9%     15.7%            48.7%    49.8%    1.5%     -1.1%             16.8%    13655

St Lawrence      53.9%    41.2%    4.9%     12.7%            54.6%    43.5%    1.9%     11.0%             1.6%     1319

Saratoga         45.4%    50.0%    4.7%     -4.6%            45.2%    53.0%    1.8%     -7.8%             3.2%     8344

Schenectady      53.2%    41.7%    5.2%     11.5%            51.5%    46.7%    1.8%     4.9%              6.6%     4008

Schoharie        39.3%    55.5%    5.2%     -16.1%           38.6%    59.4%    2.1%     -20.8%            4.7%     941

Schuyler         40.4%    53.8%    5.9%     -13.4%           40.0%    58.1%    1.9%     -18.1%            4.7%     721

Seneca           47.9%    46.7%    5.4%     1.3%             45.5%    52.5%    2.1%     -7.0%             8.2%     1277

Staten Island    51.8%    45.2%    3.1%     6.6%             42.3%    56.9%    0.8%     -14.7%            21.3%    24335

Steuben          36.3%    59.4%    4.3%     -23.2%           33.9%    64.4%    1.7%     -30.5%            7.3%     2906

Suffolk          53.2%    41.8%    5.0%     11.4%            49.1%    48.8%    2.1%     0.3%              11.2%    77671

Sullivan         49.8%    45.0%    5.2%     4.7%             48.5%    49.5%    1.9%     -1.0%             5.8%     2513

Tioga            40.8%    54.5%    4.7%     -13.6%           40.3%    58.0%    1.7%     -17.7%            4.1%     1447

Tompkins         54.0%    33.7%    12.3%    20.3%            63.9%    33.7%    2.4%     30.2%            -10.0%    627

Ulster           48.2%    43.5%    8.3%     4.6%             54.3%    43.4%    2.3%     10.9%            -6.3%     4831

Warren           43.2%    51.7%    5.1%     -8.6%            42.9%    55.1%    2.0%     -12.2%            3.7%     1913

Washington       41.1%    53.1%    5.7%     -12.0%           42.1%    55.6%    2.4%     -13.5%            1.5%     1351

Wayne            39.2%    56.4%    4.4%     -17.2%           38.0%    60.4%    1.7%     -22.4%            5.2%     2857

Westchester      58.4%    37.4%    4.2%     21.0%            57.9%    40.7%    1.5%     17.2%             3.8%     38923

Wyoming          35.0%    60.4%    4.6%     -25.4%           33.7%    64.9%    1.4%     -31.2%            5.8%     919

Yates            39.5%    55.4%    5.1%     -15.9%           38.8%    59.6%    1.6%     -20.8%            4.9%     735