Your Move...
In
the chess match of international
geo-politics, a move by Pakistan
and India toward conflict in
Kashmir would likely put the
United States in
"check", facilitating a
countering move that would do
little other than keeping the
game in progress. At this point,
it's a no-win situation, as a
move in our interest would end up
being a move against our
interest, which indicates our
opponents are very able players.
To
successfully prosecute the war
against Islamic terrorism, we
need Pakistan (or at least
Pakistani President Pervez
Musharraf), in our corner. A
recalcitrant, uncooperative
Pakistan would make apprehension
of fleeing Al-Queda and Taliban
fighters very difficult, while
providing them sanctuary in a
nation that only a few months ago
was their biggest benefactor, and
where the "Holy
Warriors" still enjoy strong
support from the general
population; an Afghanistan in the
making, replete with religious
fundamentalists espousing radical
Islam and fomenting hatred. No,
we need Musharraf to stand with
us, shoulder-to-shoulder, against
all manner of this specter, and,
under present circumstances, he's
extremely courageous to do so.
The consequences for him are
daunting, should his gamble fail.
So, toward that end, we can't
very well cut him off at the
knees by supporting India at
present, lest we cut off our own
ability to complete the military
mission of this war. Conversely,
India faces deepening conflict
with radical Islamic terrorists,
in all likelihood based in, and
protected by, Pakistan. As these
are the same terrorists we've
been bombing all over Afghanistan
for the last several months,
hunting them down like the mad
dogs that they are, we may soon
find ourselves allied with these
very people we're fighting,
opposite India, in our quest to
keep Musharraf happy, in office
and in tune with our war
objectives..."CHECK!"
Ordinarily,
it would be a simple strategic
decision to support the lesser of
two evils, as it corresponds to
our interests. But India is a
nation with whom, since the end
of the Cold War, we have had no
quarrel. And we can certainly
empathize with her pain and
outrage in the wake of the deadly
terrorist attack on the Indian
parliament building in New Delhi,
where, much like the Sept. 11
attack in New York, an assault
was aimed not only against
people, but against institutions.
And if both countries marshaled
merely conventional armed force,
we could stay out of it. But we
have two nations that cannot even
feed their own teeming
populations, facing off
possessing nuclear capabilities.
Do I think they'll use them? No.
But it's hardly a gamble we can
afford to take, so, consequently,
we'll be forced to way-in should
it come to war between them.
I
believe the Muslim strategists
were thinking several moves ahead
when they initiated this latest
attack on India, for it serves
several purposes simultaneously.
First, war would create a
diversion from our attempts to
hook the big Taliban and Al-Queda
fish, muddying the waters with
regional confusion, providing
fleeing terrorists a roiling
smokescreen of cover to
facilitate escape. Second, it
would draw away Pakistani troops
from the western theater, where
they're needed to seal the border
with Afghanistan, and, without
whom, the job of apprehension
would break down. And third, the
Fundies seem to understand the
unique dynamic in play vis-a-vis
our current need of Pakistan, and
are more than ready and willing
to exploit it in a diabolical
attempt to force our hand into
making a defensive move, either
in support of a terrorist
harboring state, a confusing and
seemingly contrary position, or
in support of a democratic one,
playing into Osama bin Laden's
contention that the West is on a
thinly veiled crusade against
Islam, and likely shutting down
our hunt for the bad guys.
What
to do? Ideally, this will turn
out to be so much huffing,
puffing and bluffing, and we
won't have to decide, thereby
keeping our war aims on track and
focused. But life seems to entail
supreme unforeseen ironies, and,
like a good game of chess, the
right moves are not always so
obvious.
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