"The time to start rebuilding," explains Moline Director of Scouting and Player Development Fate Norris, "is while you're winning." As the big-league club readies itself for a defense of its Northern division title, the Greens' farm system prepares for an influx of new talent from this month's annual supplemental draft .
Heading this year's draft class is shortstop Pablo Ozuna, a slick-fielding middlefielder with pop. Joining Ozuna in this year's top ten are '99 draftees Aaron Rowand, Jason LaRue, Brent Abernathy, and Ntema "Pappy" Ndungidi, additions which speak both to a good harvest in the draft and to a minor-league system depleted by graduation and attrition.
Moline's pre-draft cuts included past prospects Arquimedez Pozo, Jay Payton, and Jose Nunez, part of a tools-laden 1998 draft class that flopped last year. As Assistant Director of Player Development Josh Logan explains, "Sometimes high ceilings come with shaky floors." That assessment explains a more conservative drafting strategy in 1999 than in years past.
Pitching remains a developmental weakness, but it hasn't cost the Greens yet. If this year's list isn't as strong as it has been, the tradeoff is success in Moline, where the farm system's crops continue to flourish. It's too early to say how many of this year's Top 10 will ultimately challenge for starting jobs at the big-league level. But with all but two Greens' position players age 27 or younger, all the prospects on this list have ample time to grow.
Background: In 1998 Ozuna beat out touted LHP Rick Ankiel for top prospect honors in the Midwest League. He led the league in batting average and runs scored and was named league MVP, all at age 19.
Strengths: Ozuna makes good contact at the plate, collecting 46 extra-base hits in 1998, while fanning just 56 times in 538 AB's. He works hard, has good speed, power to all fields, solid range, and he figures to stay at short.
Weaknesses: Ozuna still gets caught stealing too often and makes his share of fielding errors. He doesn't walk much, just 29 times last year.
The Future: Ozuna may yet fill out and add power. Only 20, he will start the year at AA. Derek Jeter isn't going anywhere, but with the falloff of Jimmy Rollins, Ozuna has become the Greens' shortstop of the future.
Background: Hermansen has moved steadily up the development ladder, usually as the youngest player at each level. Position shifts and strikeouts have slowed his development.
Strengths: Possessed of a power bat and good speed, Hermansen also draws some walks and is mature and personable.
Weaknesses: Hermansen strikes out now far too often and hasn't settled on a defensive home. In left field, he loses much of the value he had as a power-hitting middle infielder.
The Future: Still just 21, Hermansen returns to AAA in 1999 to settle into left field and try to cut down his strikeouts.
Background: A celebrated collegiate hitter, Burrell was the top pick in the 1998 amateur draft and hit well in his brief FSL debut.
Strengths: Pat bats. He hit for power and average in college, though it's not certain how much of each he'll retain as a professional. Pat also walks a lot. The best case scenario pegs him as a more modest version of Frank Thomas.
Weaknesses: Inexperience is a given, though his .303 BA, .416 OBP, and .530 SA start is promising. As a first baseman, Burrell faces high offensive standards. His 1998 back problem may yet return to slow his progress.
The Future: Burrell will start 1999 in AA. With good depth in front of him at first, Moline can wait.
Background: A supplemental first rounder in 1998, Rowand stepped into the SAL and posted a .342 BA in 222 AB's. Physically, he's built like Tim Salmon.
Strengths: He hit in college at CSF, and he showed doubles power in his professional debut, doubles that may become homers as he learns to better drive the bat with a wooden bat.
Weaknesses: Inexperience, certainly, and sample size, perhaps. Rowand didn't draw many walks in the Sally League, but he didn't strike out much either. He is just an average defensive outfielder.
The Future: Rowand may jump to AA to start the year, which would put him ahead developmentally for a college player, since, like CSF alum and ex-Green Mark Kotsay, Rowand is a year younger than his college class.
Background: BA's 1998 High School Player of the Year, Henson was also the nation's top quarterback prospect and played football last fall at Michigan.
Strengths: A stellar athlete, Henson has plus tools everywhere but his legs. He saw little action in the GCL but still hit .316 with his first professional home run.
Weaknesses: Henson hasn't shown much yet, and his fondness for football will keep him from a rapid rise through the minors.
The Future: As long as Michigan has a job for him, Henson will split his time between college footbal land minor-league baseball. He'll start 1999 in low-A ball.
Background: LaRue posted 50 doubles in the SAL in 1997 and then hit .365 in AA last year to prove that it was no fluke.
Strengths: He can hit some. The MLEs on his 1998 numbers are a .306 BA, .349 OBP, and .464 SA. He has a quick, compact swing that should carry him to the majors.
Weaknesses: LaRue is not a great defensive catcher. At 25, he needs to move quickly to Moline if he is to have a major-league career.
The Future: Charles Johnson and Mike Sweeney hold the fort for now, but if LaRue bats in the majors as he has in the minors, he may arrive sooner than later.
Background: A two-time high school All American, McDonald, like Henson, also won BA's High School Player of the Year and starred on the football field, turning down a scholarship at Texas to sign for $1.9 million.
Strengths: McDonald has ample tools: good speed, a good arm, athleticism. He debuted in A ball and wasn't completely overmatched.
Weaknesses: While he wasn't completely overmatched, McDonald hardly hit well. His 117/33 SO/BB ratio especially troubles the Greens' development office.
The Future: McDonald remains raw, and he'll move up one level at a time, starting 1999 in high-A ball, where he'll work on developing strike-zone judgment. With luck, his athletic tools will grow into sound baseball skills.
Background: Another former high school All American, Abernathy has been a steady .300 hitter and has maintained an excellent SO/AB ratio in his two years as a professional.
Strengths: Abernathy has fine bat speed and plate coverage. He has gap power and is a good athlete with a strong work ethic. His glove is steady.
Weaknesses: Abernathy doesn't impress scouts, despite his athleticism. He has little power yet and hasn't learned to draw walks.
The Future: The eventual successor to Todd Walker will play AA at age 21, good progress for a high-school draftee. His strike zone judgment and power development will determine if Abernathy becomes something special.
Background: Congo-born Pappy Ndungidi moved to Montreal as a boy and become a celebrated athlete in that city before being drafted in 1997.
Strengths: Pappy has great tools: a strong arm, good range, speed, and an advancing bat. He drew a good share of walks last year.
Weaknesses: Ndungdi has yet to demonstrate how well he can perform in a full-season league. He struck out close to once a game in 1998, which may limit his development and his chances of hitting for average.
The Future: The outfield in Moline is in good, young hands, so Ndungidi will have ample time to develop. Raw players move slowly until they master baseball skills.
Background: Last year's number three prospect, King fell apart in 1998. His bat showed none of the high average he'd shown in previous seasons, and his defense suffered.
Strengths: King still has good tools behind the plate. He threw out 44% of basestealers last year. He has good bat speed, despite his poor '98 numbers. And he is still just 21.
Weaknesses: His stance doesn't allow him to drive the ball, so King may remain a high-average, low-power batter. He must watch his weight.
The Future: The Greens are disappointed at how far King fell in 1998. Once considered Charles Johnson's successor, King now figures to be no more than a backup in Moline unless he rediscovers his bat.