Gray Matters: Part Two, a brief statistical survey of O-2 membership in some Galactic Institutes

a Terragen Reliability Survey white paper
 
 

Having argued that there is good reason to believe that the population of uninhabited space has been underestimated by many orders of magnitude, how might one estimate the population of uninhabited space, taking into account our new assumptions?  For that matter, even gathering enough data on Gray civilization to hazard an educated demographic guess is quite problematic.  These groups are, by definition, secretive and fearful of --even paranoid about --Galactic civilization.  At first glance, this would seem to be precisely the kind of lacuna in the database of the Galactic Library that Alliance for Progress member species complain about so.

However, it is to the Galactic Library that we turned for the information that allowed us to hazard a reasonable guess about the Gray population of the Five Galaxies.  More specifically, we used to the Library's "comprehensive" list of Main Sequence species and its "complete" list of member species.  Then we augmented that list with the number of confidential subscribers (not already accounted for).  Similar database operations were also performed on the membership records of the Galactic Uplift Institute, the Galactic Institute for Migration, the Galactic Institute for Civilized Warfare, the Galactic Institute of Tradition, and last --but also least --the Galactic Institute for the Promotion of Novelty and Progress.  Later in this section we go on to discuss the implications that any membership discrepancies may have for "predicting" the Main Sequence Gray population of the Galaxies.

We were able to obtain membership information on H-2, O-2, Quantum, Artificial, and Mimetic species from all six Institutes.  Member species were then classified as participators, non-participators, and species unknown to the Institute in question.  "Participants" were defined as subscribing species who took an active interest in Institute activities, other subscribers, and registered protestors⁽¹⁾.  "Non-participants" include anonymous subscribers⁽²⁾ and unaffiliated species.⁽³⁾  For practical purposes, however, we simply calculated the total number of unique subscribers and non-subscribers (that is, we did our best to count no species twice).  Our estimate for the total number of O-2 species was slightly higher than 12496 (binary 11000011010000).  Rather than using a precise number, we used the round figure of 12512 (binary 11000011100000).

For reasons of space, we restrict ourselves to O-2 species here, though similar work was also done for the other orders of Main Sequence sapient life. Table one lists O-2 participants and non-participants by Institute.

Unfortunately, no amount of analysis can tell us exactly the true differential membership between the various institutes.  In short, we cannot simply assume that the number of Gray species is identical --or even close to --the number of anonymous subscribers.  Assuming that all anonymous subscriptions and memberships are taken by Gray species seriously inflates the estimate of Gray species in the Galaxies.  This is mostly because anonymous subscription is often used to gain strategic advantage.  For example, wealthier species might take out an anonymous subscription the Library in addition to their public subscription to provide an extra measure of security for sensitive operations.  Also, non-participators frequently take out an anonymous membership to supplement intelligence on undesirable species and their activities.  For example, the Alliance for Progress Clans should assume that Clan Jophur is an anonymous subscriber to the G.I.P.N.P.

The reader might thus suppose that the number of Gray species must be rather small indeed.  It would seem that most non-participators in Institutes other than the Library are Library subscribers, and even the majority of anonymous subscriptions to the Great Library itself are probably dummy accounts for existing species.  But this too would be a mistake.  Some 12 to 20 per_128 (hectobyte) of non-Library memberships were not matched with species known to the Library in any form.  Furthermore, very wealthy or very security conscious species cannot account for more than a third of all anonymous subscriptions to the Great Library.  For O-2 species alone, the number of unmatched accounts suggests that Gray O-2 species must number between five and nine per hectobyte of the number of living O-2 sapient species.

Surely, then that must be the extent of the O-2 Gray species --about 8 per_128 of the known number of sapient O-2 species.  But this number is surely too small.  The evidence of Sooner communities and pre-contact Terragens shows that the Galactic Library is not, in fact, essential to sapient existence.  It is merely desirable. Gray species will tend toward a survivalist ethic, and in their xenophobic paranoia avoid ALL unnecessary contact with mainstream Civilization.  Since any participation is a survival risk, many Gray species will avoid contact with even the Great Library.  The number of totally isolationist species must be added to our best guess of the number of Gray species.

For now we are (reluctantly) willing to assume the number of complete isolationists is essentially zero.  After all, these are not Sooners, but cultures that still aspire to highly technological, and even starfaring civilization.  It may be true that the lure of the Great Library must be irresistible.  However, subscription is hardly the only way to gain access to the Galactic Library.  The number of the four smallest kinds of standard issue, autonomous, Galactic Library modules that are overdue or that have gone missing is truly enormous. Among these smallest units, almost one byte in four will not be returned to the Library.  Many are reported as destroyed in operational use, lost during mission activities, or simply paid for --in full --without explanation.  All Library Fellows who spoke to us knew about this serious loss, and offered various theories about the destination of the missing units.  All assumed that the lessees knew exactly what happened to the vast majority of these (presumably) perfectly functional 2^-64, 2^-48, 2^-32, and 2^-24 units.  We propose that there must exist a surreptitious, and relatively anonymous, market in very small Library units.  The likelihood that many Gray species are using not-too-old nano-branches is increased when one considers that the vast majority of such units are optimized for technical, manufacturing, or military use at the time of issue --and so very useful to a Gray society.  The reader should note that Library use would be much safer for Grays than for Sooners because Grays frequently have access to deep caverns and Faraday cages.  Besides, no one is actively looking for them --at least not in the right places.

Furthermore, members of Gray species would surely have --on average --much less Library access than even the poorest members of Main Sequence Galactic Civilization.  Even if only one-sixteenth or one-thirty-second of all missing Library units ever found their way into Gray space, we would be justified in raising the expected number of Gray O-2 species to between 12 and 20 per-hectobyte of the number of known O-2 sapient species.

Our best guess is that the number of all Gray H-2, O-2, and Built Gray species is 32 per hectobyte, or one fifth of all Main Sequence sapients (excluding QuantumandMemetic forms).  The number would be much higher except that less than 6 per hectobyte of H-2 species are Gray.  We suspect the number of H-2 Gray species is so low because of the problem of finding and exploiting suitable refuges.  This, however, is offset by the majority of Built species being Gray.  This makes it probable that Built species in fact form a coherent civilization despite widespread non-participation in Galactic Institutions and wider Galactic civilization.  Contact with Organic life is likely to be monopolized by clans specializing in this "dangerous" but lucrative trade --such as the Seven Spins Clan.  It is also worth noting that some groups of O-2 Gray species might have contacts with members of Built civilization.

There is also good reason to believe that many species thought to be extinct --especially those that were targeted for extermination, such as the difficult Setarkos ab-Enethom⁽⁴⁾ --will be hiding in uninhabited space.  Likewise, one expects to find uplifted clients of various Gray species, including clients of not-quite-exterminated refugee populations.

Readers should also note that while the artificial biospheres inhabited by O-2 Gray species will be relatively small, and have relatively short operating lives of no more than a few hundred million years --they will also have very complex ecologies relative to a terraformed or natural ecology of equal age.  Furthermore, for most of the biosphere's operating life, climatic conditions will be nearly optimal for any organisms that might survive abandonment.  In the case of methane or ammonia biospheres, global ecologies will remain viable as long as a world's sun remains stable.  Methane and ammonia biospheres have also remained undisturbed for billions of years.  In short, one should expect to find a relatively high rate of Promising species in "uninhabited" space.  We believe that there is even a fair chance that "uninhabited" space --and methane/ammonia or Europaoid biospheres in particular --might be home to pre-space flight orphan Wolflings.

But, in the final analysis, we are simply left guessing; thus, the need for a statistical census of uninhabited space.

Return to contents

Return to Main Index

e3v5r1

[email protected]