The Final National Exit Poll: Always Adjusted to Match the Recorded
Vote
Feb.
7, 2009
The distinction
between unadjusted and adjusted Final National Exit Poll (NEP) is the cause of
much confusion and misinformation. The Final “contaminates” raw, unadjusted
polling data by forcing a match to the recorded vote. If
the vote count is fraudulent, simple logic dictates that the Final Exit Poll
does not provide the True Vote, but rather a corrupt one. Furthermore, all demographic category
crosstabs would also need to be adjusted and would result in misleading
statistics. This analysis will prove that in each of the 2004, 2006, 2008
elections, the Final NEP used an impossible returning voter mix to match the
recorded vote. Therefore, the recorded vote also had to be impossible. It
overstated the Republican vote share (and understated the Democratic share) by
3-4% in each election.
Media pundits
(even those on the left) always make the same claim: that the early exit polls
are wrong since they don’t match the recorded vote. But they don’t even mention
the possibility that Election Fraud may be the reason for the discrepancies. They never considered the possibility that
the recorded vote may have been miscounted and therefore the preliminary exit
polls were essentially correct. They assumed the count was accurate. Pundits
who should know better then catapulted the propaganda by stating that the final
exit poll confirmed the vote count. In
so doing, they continue to promote the myth that the elections are fraud-free.
And they have done so in every election since 2004.
They dismiss the accuracy of the early exit polls,
claiming they were not designed to predict the True Vote but just to provide a
demographic snapshot of the electorate. But if that’s the case, and the
recorded vote count is corrupted, then so are the demographics. They never
did the analysis that would have proved that the returning voter weights Final
NEP were impossible. If they had, they would have come to the same
conclusion as the spreadsheet-wielding bloggers: the reported vote counts were
impossible (view the spreadsheet analysis below).
It’s standard operating procedure for exit pollsters
to force the final state and national exit polls to match the recorded vote -
even if it means using impossible weights and implausible vote shares. The
procedure assumes a fraud-free election – not exactly a reality-based
assumption.
Apart from the
Final National Exit Poll, there is a mountain of documented evidence to suggest
that the 2004, 2006 and 2008 elections were fraudulent. Since the final state
and national exit polls were forced to match the official results, a serious
analyst would focus on the changes in vote shares and weights from the
unadjusted, “pristine” exit polls that were required. But serious analysts of
election fraud are still maligned by the mainstream media and others who
frequent election forums with an obvious agenda: to hide the truth about election
fraud from the public.
2008
The Final 2008
National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote: Obama by
69.4-59.9 million (52.9-45.6%). It indicates that returning Bush 2004 voters
comprised 46% (60.4m) of the 131.37 million voters in 2008. Bush won by
62.0-59.0 million recorded votes in 2004. Approximately 3.0m (4.8%) died,
therefore at most 59.0m Bush voters returned in 2008. Assuming that 3.0m did
not vote (95% turnout), there were 4 million more returning Bush voters than
could have voted. The returning voter mix implies that Bush won by 52.9-42.5%.
But the actual recorded vote share was Bush 50.73- Kerry 48.27%.
The Final also indicates that returning Kerry voters comprised just 37% (48.4m) of the 2008 electorate. Kerry had 59.0 million recorded votes in 2004. How could there have been 11.7 million more returning Bush voters than Kerry voters? Bush won by just 3.0 million votes. One would expect that Kerry voters would be more motivated to vote for Obama than Bush voters for McCain.
If the 2004 unadjusted state exit polls are to be
believed, Kerry won by 52-47% (63.6-57.5m).
Assuming a 5% voter mortality rate, 54.6m Bush voters were alive in
2008. If 51.9m (95%) voted in 2008, the 2008 Final NEP inflated the number
of returning Bush voters by 8.5 million.
The Final also indicated that third-party 2004 voters
comprised 4% of the 2008 electorate – another impossibility. There were only
1.22m third party voters in 2004 (1% of the total).
Final 2008 National Exit Poll
Implied 2004 Total Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain
Other
Vote DNV 17.08 13% 71% 27% 2% 12.1 4.6 0.3
42.5% Kerry 48.61 37% 89% 9% 2% 43.3 4.4 1.0
52.9% Bush 60.43 46% 17% 82% 1% 10.3 49.6 0.6
4.6% Other 5.25 4% 66% 24% 10% 3.5 1.3 0.5
114.3 Total 131.37 100% 52.62% 45.52% 1.86% 69.13 59.80 2.44
Since the impossible Final was forced to match the
recorded vote, the recorded vote must be impossible.
The Election
Calculator used Final 2008 NEP vote shares but not the impossible
NEP return voter mix. The first scenario used the recorded 2004 vote to
determine the returning voter mix (Bush 50.73-48.27%). Obama won this
(unlikely) scenario by 17.6 million votes – an 8 million increase over his
recorded margin. The second scenario used the unadjusted state exit poll
aggregate (Kerry by 52-47%). Obama
won this (most likely) scenario by 22.6 million - a 13 million increase over
his recorded margin.
Scenario
1: 2004 returning voter mix based on
the recorded 2004 vote adjusted for
2004 voters:
3.45 million uncounted (2.74%), 4.8% mortality, 95% turnout; 3.0% uncounted in
2008
a) Obama wins by 17.6m: 75.4-57.8 (55.7-42.7%) assuming 4.0m uncounted votes (3.0% of 135.4m cast).
b) Obama wins by 15.8m: 72.5-56.7 (55.2-43.1%) assuming no uncounted votes.
Recorded 2004 Total Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
Vote DNV 21.71 16.0% 71% 27% 2% 15.4 5.9 0.4
48.27% Kerry 55.72 41.1% 89% 9% 2% 49.6 5.0 1.1
50.73% Bush 56.86 42.0% 17% 82% 1% 9.7 46.6 0.6
1.00% Other 1.14 0.8% 66% 24% 10% 0.8 0.3 0.1
Total 135.43 100.0% 55.69% 42.66% 1.65% 75.43 57.77 2.23
Scenario
2: 2004 returning voter mix based on
the unadjusted 2004 exit poll shares adjusted for
2004 voters:
3.45 million uncounted (2.74%), 4.8% mortality, 95% turnout; 3.0% uncounted in
2008
a) Obama wins by 22.6m: 77.9-55.3 (57.5-40.8%) assuming 4.0m uncounted votes.
b) Obama wins by 20.8m: 75.0-54.2 (57.1-41.3%) assuming no uncounted votes.
2004 Unadj. 2004 Total Mix Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other
Exit Poll DNV 21.71 16.0% 71% 27% 2% 15.4 5.9 0.43
52.0% Kerry 59.13 43.7% 89% 9% 2% 52.6 5.3 1.18
47.0% Bush 53.44 39.5% 17% 82% 1% 9.1 43.8 0.53
1.0% Other 1.14 0.8% 66% 24% 10% 0.8 0.3 0.11
Total 135.43 100% 57.51% 40.82% 1.67% 77.88 55.28 2.27
2004
The 12:22am NEP “Voted 2000” category indicated that Bush
2000 voters comprised 41% of the 2004 electorate and Gore voters 39%. Kerry was
a 51-48% winner. But in the Final NEP, the weights were adjusted to 43% and 37%
– to match the Bush 51-48% margin. The
4% increase in the spread between Gore and Bush voters was a major component of
the reversal.
John Kerry held a steady 51-48% lead throughout the
National Exit Poll timeline: at 4pm (8349 respondents); 7:30pm (11027); 12:22am
(13047) - after the polls closed. But of course Bush won the Final NEP by
51-48% (13660 respondents). The Final
was posted the day after the election and was forced to match the Recorded
Vote count by using impossible weights and implausible vote shares.
The impossible 46/37 Bush/Kerry returning voter
mix in the Final 2008 NEP is nothing new. The Bush 43% share was
mathematically and physically impossible since it meant that Bush had 52.6
million votes in 2000; he had just 50.5 million. Approximately 2.5 million
died. Therefore, only 48m former Bush voters were alive in 2004. Therefore, the
Final overstated the number of returning Bush 2000 voters by more than 4.5
million.
The Election Calculator determined that Kerry won the
True Vote by 67-57m. A feasible
returning voter mix was based on a 2000 voter annual mortality rate of 1.22%
and an assumed 95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004. The 12:22am (Composite) vote shares were used rather
than the Final NEP shares. The reason:
the Final NEP Bush vote shares were inflated, along with the 2000 Bush
returning voter mix, to force a match to the recorded vote. The difference
between the calculated True and recorded vote margin is 13 million – the same
as in 2008.
2004 Final National Exit Poll
13660 Respondents
11/03 2:05pm
2000 Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 20.79 17% 54% 45% 1% 11.22 9.35 0.21
Gore 45.24 37% 90% 10% 0% 40.72 4.52 0.00
Bush 52.58 43% 9% 91% 0% 4.73 47.84 0.00
Other 3.67 3% 71% 21% 8% 2.60 0.77 0.29
Total 122.3 100% 48.48% 51.11% 0.41% 59.28 62.49 0.50
Preliminary National Exit Poll
13047 Respondents
11/03 12:22am
2000 Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 20.79 17% 57% 41% 2% 11.85 8.52 0.42
Gore 47.69 39% 91% 8% 1% 43.39 3.81 0.48
Bush 50.13 41% 10% 90% 0% 5.01 45.12 0.00
Other 3.67 3% 71% 21% 8% 2.60 0.77 0.29
Total 122.3 100% 51.41% 47.62% 0.97% 62.86 58.22 1.19
Election Calculator True Vote Model
2000
Voted Recd Unctd Cast Died Alive
Gore 51.00 4.04 55.04 2.72 52.32
Bush 50.46 1.08 51.53 2.48 49.06
Other 3.96 0.27 4.23 0.21 4.02
Total 105.42 5.38 110.8 5.41 105.39
2004 Turnout Voted Weight Kerry Bush Other
DNV - 25.61 20.4% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 95% 49.70 39.5% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 95% 46.60 37.1% 10% 90% 0%
Other 95% 3.82 3.0% 64% 17% 19%
Total 100.1 125.7 100% 53.23% 45.39% 1.38%
66.94 57.07 1.74
2006
Midterms
At 7pm, the Bush/Kerry NEP returning voter mix was
47/45%. It was changed to 49/43% in the Final. Once again, the exit
pollsters had to match the vote count by increasing the spread 4%! This had
a major effect in reducing the Democratic margin from 55-43% at 7pm to
52-46% in the Final.
The Democratic Tsunami gained 31 congressional seats. But they actually did much better than that. A regression trend analysis of 120 pre-election Generic polls (all won by the Democrats) projected they would win by 56-42% and gain over 40 seats. The 7pm National Exit Poll confirmed the pre-election trend. But the next day, the Final NEP was once again forced to match a corrupted vote count with implausible weights and vote shares. The Democratic margin was cut in half. The fraud resulted in the loss of 10-20 seats.
National Exit Poll Timeline vs. the True Vote (based on the Generic Poll Trend)
--------- 7:07pm ----------- -------------- Final -------- ------ True Generic Vote -----
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Kerry 45% 93% 6% 1% 43% 92% 7% 1% 49% 93% 6% 1%
Bush 47% 17% 82% 1% 49% 15% 83% 2% 46% 17% 82% 1%
Other 4% 67% 23% 10% 4% 66% 23% 11% 1% 67% 23% 10%
DNV 4% 67% 30% 3% 4% 66% 32% 2% 4% 67% 30% 3%
TOTAL 100% 55.2% 43.4% 1.4% 100% 52.2% 45.9% 1.9% 100% 56.7% 42.1% 1.2%
The 2004 State Exit Poll
Aggregate Timeline
Edison-Mitofsky provided four aggregate state exit poll
measures.
Kerry won the first three; Bush won the Final:
1) WPE 51.8-47.2% (unadjusted)
2) GEO 51.0-48.5% (adjusted to incoming recorded votes)
3) Composite 50.3-49.1% (12:22am-adjusted to pre-election polls)
4) Final 48.5-51.1% (matched to recorded vote)
WPE is the only unadjusted (“pristine”) method. It is based on the average discrepancy
between the exit poll result and recorded vote for all precincts polled in the
state. Measures (2) and (3) are adjusted estimates which incorporate
pre-election polls and recorded votes. The final state exit polls were
forced to match the recorded votes, therefore implying ZERO election fraud. Why
should we believe them? And why bother doing exit polls at all if they will
just assume that the recorded vote count was the True Vote?
Edison-Mitofsky
Exit Poll Estimates
RECORDED VOTE WPE (WITHIN PRECINCT ERROR) BEST
GEO COMPOSITE 12:40am
|
Kerry |
Bush |
Margin |
EV |
|
Kerry |
Bush |
Margin |
WPE |
EV |
|
Kerry |
Bush |
Margin |
Error |
EV |
|
Kerry |
Bush |
Margin |
Error |
EV |
|
|
Total |
48.27 |
50.73 |
(2.46) |
251 |
|
51.84 |
47.18 |
4.7
|
7.11 |
324 |
|
51.04 |
48.49 |
2.56
|
5.01 |
301 |
|
50.26 |
49.11 |
1.15 |
3.60 |
288 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AL |
36.8 |
62.5 |
(25.6) |
|
|
42.5 |
56.8 |
(14.3) |
11.3
|
|
|
42.0 |
57.5 |
(15.5) |
10.1
|
|
|
40.6 |
58.7 |
(18.1) |
7.5
|
|
|
|
AK |
35.5 |
61.1 |
(25.5) |
|
|
40.3 |
56.3 |
(15.9) |
9.6
|
|
|
41.2 |
57.4 |
(16.2) |
9.3
|
|
|
39.0 |
58.8 |
(19.8) |
5.7
|
|
|
|
AZ |
44.4 |
54.9 |
(10.5) |
|
|
46.7 |
52.6 |
(5.9) |
4.6
|
|
|
46.5 |
53.5 |
(7.0) |
3.5
|
|
|
46.8 |
53.2 |
(6.4) |
4.1
|
|
|
|
AR |
44.5 |
54.3 |
(9.8) |
|
|
44.8 |
54.1 |
(9.3) |
0.5
|
|
|
46.8 |
52.4 |
(5.6) |
4.2
|
|
|
47.0 |
52.2 |
(5.2) |
4.6
|
|
|
|
CA |
54.3 |
44.4 |
9.9
|
55 |
|
59.8 |
38.9 |
20.8
|
10.9
|
55 |
|
56.5 |
43.5 |
13.0
|
3.1
|
55 |
|
56.5 |
43.5 |
13.0
|
3.1
|
55 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CO |
47.0 |
51.7 |
(4.7) |
|
|
50.1 |
48.6 |
1.4
|
6.1
|
9 |
|
47.0 |
52.5 |
(5.5) |
(0.8) |
|
|
47.7 |
51.4 |
(3.7) |
1.0
|
|
|
|
CT |
54.3 |
43.9 |
10.4
|
7 |
|
62.2 |
36.1 |
26.1
|
15.7
|
7 |
|
59.3 |
39.6 |
19.7
|
9.3
|
7 |
|
58.1 |
40.5 |
17.6
|
7.2
|
7 |
|
|
DE |
53.3 |
45.8 |
7.6
|
3 |
|
61.3 |
37.8 |
23.5
|
15.9
|
3 |
|
61.5 |
37.9 |
23.6
|
16.0
|
3 |
|
57.7 |
41.2 |
16.5
|
8.9
|
3 |
|
|
DC |
89.2 |
9.3 |
79.8
|
3 |
|
90.9 |
7.6 |
83.2
|
3.4
|
3 |
|
91.1 |
8.1 |
83.0
|
3.2
|
3 |
|
90.2 |
8.4 |
81.8
|
2.0
|
3 |
|
|
FL |
47.1 |
52.1 |
(5.0) |
|
|
50.9 |
48.3 |
2.6
|
7.6
|
27 |
|
49.2 |
50.3 |
(1.1) |
3.9
|
|
|
49.3 |
50.1 |
(0.8) |
4.2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GA |
41.4 |
58.0 |
(16.6) |
|
|
42.5 |
56.9 |
(14.4) |
2.2
|
|
|
43.5 |
56.5 |
(13.0) |
3.6
|
|
|
43.0 |
57.1 |
(14.1) |
2.5
|
|
|
|
HI |
54.0 |
45.3 |
8.7
|
4 |
|
56.4 |
42.9 |
13.4
|
4.7
|
4 |
|
56.5 |
43.4 |
13.1
|
4.4
|
4 |
|
53.6 |
46.4 |
7.2
|
(1.5) |
4 |
|
|
ID |
30.3 |
68.4 |
(38.1) |
|
|
30.8 |
67.9 |
(37.1) |
1.0
|
|
|
30.9 |
69.1 |
(38.2) |
(0.1) |
|
|
31.6 |
68.3 |
(36.7) |
1.4
|
|
|
|
IL |
54.8 |
44.5 |
10.3
|
21 |
|
57.0 |
42.3 |
14.7
|
4.4
|
21 |
|
57.5 |
42.6 |
14.9
|
4.6
|
21 |
|
57.0 |
42.9 |
14.1
|
3.8
|
21 |
|
|
IN |
39.3 |
59.9 |
(20.7) |
|
|
40.0 |
59.2 |
(19.2) |
1.5
|
|
|
40.5 |
59.6 |
(19.1) |
1.6
|
|
|
41.3 |
58.8 |
(17.5) |
3.2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
IA |
49.2 |
49.9 |
(0.7) |
|
|
50.7 |
48.4 |
2.3
|
3.0
|
7 |
|
50.0 |
49.0 |
1.0
|
1.7
|
7 |
|
50.0 |
49.0 |
1.0
|
1.7
|
7 |
|
|
KS |
36.6 |
62.0 |
(25.4) |
|
|
37.5 |
61.2 |
(23.7) |
1.7
|
|
|
36.6 |
62.8 |
(26.2) |
(0.8) |
|
|
34.4 |
64.6 |
(30.2) |
(4.8) |
|
|
|
KY |
39.7 |
59.6 |
(19.9) |
|
|
39.6 |
59.6 |
(20.0) |
(0.1) |
|
|
40.6 |
58.6 |
(18.0) |
1.9
|
|
|
40.9 |
58.3 |
(17.4) |
2.5
|
|
|
|
LA |
42.2 |
56.7 |
(14.5) |
|
|
44.1 |
54.8 |
(10.7) |
3.8
|
|
|
43.2 |
56.3 |
(13.1) |
1.4
|
|
|
44.3 |
54.8 |
(10.5) |
4.0
|
|
|
|
ME |
53.6 |
44.6 |
9.0
|
4 |
|
55.5 |
42.7 |
12.8
|
3.8
|
4 |
|
54.3 |
44.6 |
9.7
|
0.7
|
4 |
|
53.9 |
44.4 |
9.5
|
0.5
|
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MD |
55.9 |
42.9 |
13.0
|
10 |
|
60.0 |
38.9 |
21.1
|
8.1
|
10 |
|
59.4 |
39.7 |
19.7
|
6.7
|
10 |
|
56.6 |
42.5 |
14.1
|
1.1
|
10 |
|
|
MA |
61.9 |
36.8 |
25.2
|
12 |
|
64.8 |
33.9 |
31.0
|
5.8
|
12 |
|
66.3 |
33.6 |
32.7
|
7.5
|
12 |
|
65.7 |
34.2 |
31.5
|
6.3
|
12 |
|
|
MI |
51.2 |
47.8 |
3.4
|
17 |
|
54.4 |
44.7 |
9.7
|
6.3
|
17 |
|
51.8 |
47.3 |
4.5
|
1.1
|
17 |
|
51.9 |
47.1 |
4.8
|
1.4
|
17 |
|
|
MN |
51.1 |
47.6 |
3.5
|
9 |
|
55.7 |
43.0 |
12.8
|
9.3
|
9 |
|
56.7 |
42.4 |
14.3
|
10.8
|
9 |
|
53.7 |
44.9 |
8.8
|
5.3
|
9 |
|
|
MS |
40.2 |
59.0 |
(18.9) |
|
|
45.8 |
53.4 |
(7.6) |
11.3
|
|
|
46.2 |
53.2 |
(7.0) |
11.9
|
|
|
43.4 |
56.0 |
(12.6) |
6.3
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MO |
46.1 |
53.3 |
(7.2) |
|
|
49.0 |
50.4 |
(1.4) |
5.8
|
|
|
47.8 |
52.2 |
(4.4) |
2.8
|
|
|
47.8 |
52.1 |
(4.3) |
2.9
|
|
|
|
MT |
38.6 |
59.1 |
(20.5) |
|
|
37.7 |
60.0 |
(22.3) |
(1.8) |
|
|
37.8 |
59.9 |
(22.1) |
(1.6) |
|
|
37.2 |
60.0 |
(22.8) |
(2.3) |
|
|
|
NE |
32.7 |
65.9 |
(33.2) |
|
|
36.7 |
61.8 |
(25.1) |
8.1
|
|
|
37.5 |
61.7 |
(24.2) |
9.0
|
|
|
36.1 |
62.6 |
(26.5) |
6.7
|
|
|
|
NV |
47.9 |
50.5 |
(2.6) |
|
|
52.9 |
45.4 |
7.5
|
10.1
|
5 |
|
49.3 |
47.9 |
1.4
|
4.0
|
5 |
|
48.9 |
48.3 |
0.6
|
3.2
|
5 |
|
|
NH |
50.2 |
48.9 |
1.4
|
4 |
|
57.0 |
42.1 |
15.0
|
13.6
|
4 |
|
57.1 |
42.1 |
15.0
|
13.6
|
4 |
|
55.1 |
43.9 |
11.2
|
9.8
|
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NJ |
52.9 |
46.2 |
6.7
|
15 |
|
57.8 |
41.4 |
16.4
|
9.7
|
15 |
|
58.4 |
40.2 |
18.2
|
11.5
|
15 |
|
55.3 |
42.8 |
12.5
|
5.8
|
15 |
|
|
NM |
49.0 |
49.8 |
(0.8) |
|
|
52.9 |
45.9 |
7.0
|
7.8
|
5 |
|
51.7 |
47.5 |
4.2
|
5.0
|
5 |
|
50.8 |
48.0 |
2.8
|
3.6
|
5 |
|
|
NY |
58.4 |
40.1 |
18.3
|
31 |
|
64.1 |
34.4 |
29.7
|
11.4
|
31 |
|
65.1 |
33.8 |
31.3
|
13.0
|
31 |
|
63.1 |
35.5 |
27.6
|
9.3
|
31 |
|
|
NC |
43.6 |
56.0 |
(12.4) |
|
|
49.2 |
50.4 |
(1.1) |
11.3
|
|
|
48.2 |
51.8 |
(3.6) |
8.8
|
|
|
48.1 |
51.9 |
(3.8) |
8.6
|
|
|
|
ND |
35.5 |
62.9 |
(27.4) |
|
|
32.9 |
65.5 |
(32.6) |
(5.2) |
|
|
32.3 |
66.7 |
(34.4) |
(7.0) |
|
|
33.3 |
64.9 |
(31.6) |
(4.2) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
OH |
48.7 |
50.8 |
(2.1) |
|
|
54.2 |
45.4 |
8.8
|
10.9
|
20 |
|
53.2 |
46.7 |
6.5
|
8.6
|
20 |
|
51.7 |
48.3 |
3.4
|
5.5
|
20 |
|
|
OK |
34.4 |
65.6 |
(31.1) |
|
|
33.5 |
66.5 |
(33.0) |
(1.9) |
|
|
34.1 |
65.8 |
(31.7) |
(0.6) |
|
|
34.6 |
65.4 |
(30.8) |
0.3
|
|
|
|
OR |
51.3 |
47.2 |
4.2
|
7 |
|
53.0 |
47.0 |
6.0
|
1.8
|
7 |
|
53.0 |
47.0 |
6.0
|
1.8
|
7 |
|
50.3 |
47.9 |
2.4
|
(1.8) |
7 |
|
|
PA |
50.9 |
48.4 |
2.5
|
21 |
|
55.3 |
44.0 |
11.3
|
8.8
|
21 |
|
56.9 |
43.1 |
13.8
|
11.3
|
21 |
|
54.2 |
45.7 |
8.5
|
6.0
|
21 |
|
|
RI |
59.4 |
38.7 |
20.8
|
4 |
|
61.8 |
36.3 |
25.5
|
4.7
|
4 |
|
62.4 |
36.3 |
26.1
|
5.3
|
4 |
|
63.2 |
34.9 |
28.3
|
7.5
|
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SC |
40.9 |
58.0 |
(17.1) |
|
|
45.9 |
53.0 |
(7.1) |
10.0
|
|
|
46.4 |
52.4 |
(6.0) |
11.1
|
|
|
45.1 |
53.8 |
(8.7) |
8.4
|
|
|
|
SD |
38.4 |
59.9 |
(21.5) |
|
|
36.3 |
62.0 |
(25.7) |
(4.2) |
|
|
34.9 |
63.2 |
(28.3) |
(6.8) |
|
|
36.8 |
61.5 |
(24.7) |
(3.2) |
|
|
|
TN |
42.5 |
56.8 |
(14.3) |
|
|
42.8 |
56.5 |
(13.8) |
0.5
|
|
|
40.3 |
58.5 |
(18.2) |
(3.9) |
|
|
41.3 |
57.6 |
(16.3) |
(2.0) |
|
|
|
TX |
38.2 |
61.1 |
(22.9) |
|
|
40.6 |
58.7 |
(18.1) |
4.8
|
|
|
36.5 |
63.5 |
(27.0) |
(4.1) |
|
|
37.1 |
62.9 |
(25.8) |
(2.9) |
|
|
|
UT |
26.0 |
71.5 |
(45.5) |
|
|
29.2 |
68.3 |
(39.1) |
6.4
|
|
|
29.9 |
69.2 |
(39.3) |
6.2
|
|
|
29.9 |
68.3 |
(38.4) |
7.1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
VT |
58.9 |
38.8 |
20.1
|
3 |
|
66.4 |
31.3 |
35.1
|
15.0
|
3 |
|
67.0 |
30.4 |
36.6
|
16.5
|
3 |
|
64.5 |
32.8 |
31.7
|
11.6
|
3 |
|
|
VA |
45.5 |
53.7 |
(8.2) |
|
|
49.4 |
49.7 |
(0.3) |
7.9
|
|
|
50.2 |
49.7 |
0.5
|
8.7
|
13 |
|
48.0 |
51.9 |
(3.9) |
4.3
|
|
|
|
WA |
52.8 |
45.6 |
7.2
|
11 |
|
57.0 |
41.4 |
15.6
|
8.4
|
11 |
|
54.9 |
44.2 |
10.7
|
3.5
|
11 |
|
54.1 |
44.6 |
9.5
|
2.3
|
11 |
|
|
WV |
43.2 |
56.1 |
(12.9) |
|
|
40.3 |
59.0 |
(18.7) |
(5.8) |
|
|
41.6 |
57.4 |
(15.8) |
(2.9) |
|
|
44.9 |
54.2 |
(9.3) |
3.6
|
|
|
|
WI |
49.7 |
49.3 |
0.4
|
10 |
|
52.0 |
47.0 |
5.1
|
4.7
|
10 |
|
52.5 |
46.8 |
5.7
|
5.3
|
10 |
|
49.6 |
49.2 |
0.4
|
0.0
|
10 |
|
|
WY |
29.1 |
68.9 |
(39.8) |
|
|
31.2 |
66.7 |
(35.5) |
4.3
|
|
|
34.5 |
63.6 |
(29.1) |
10.7
|
|
|
31.6 |
66.4 |
(34.8) |
5.0
|
|
|
|
The National Exit Poll
Timeline
Kerry won the 12:22am National Exit Poll (13047 respondents) by a 4.6m vote margin.
Bush won the Final National Exit Poll (13660 respondents) by a 3.2m margin.
Final recorded vote (mil.)
Kerry Bush Other
59.03 62.04 1.23
48.27% 50.73% 1.01%
National Exit Poll
Voted 2000 Category
Timeline Summary
NEP Sample Poll Kerry Vote
Timeline Size MoE Share Margin
3:59pm 8349 1.29% 51.01% 4.96 million
7:38pm 11027 1.12% 50.90% 4.66
12:22am 13047 1.03% 51.41% 4.63
Final 13660 1.01% 48.48% -3.22
8349 Respondents
11/02 3:59pm Vote Shares Votes (in millions)
2000 Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 18.34 15% 62% 37% 1% 11.37 6.79 0.18
Gore 47.69 39% 91% 8% 1% 43.39 3.81 0.48
Bush 51.35 42% 9% 90% 0% 4.62 46.22 0.00
Other 4.89 4% 61% 12% 16% 2.98 0.59 0.78
Total 122.3 100% 51.01% 46.95% 1.18% 62.37 57.41 1.44
11027 Respondents
11/02 7:38pm
2000 Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 20.79 17% 59% 39% 1% 12.26 8.11 0.21
Gore 46.46 38% 91% 8% 1% 42.28 3.72 0.46
Bush 50.13 41% 9% 90% 0% 4.51 45.12 0.00
Other 4.89 4% 65% 13% 16% 3.18 0.64 0.78
Total 122.3 100% 50.90% 47.09% 1.19% 62.24 57.58 1.46
13047 Respondents
11/03 12:22am
2000 Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 20.79 17% 57% 41% 2% 11.85 8.52 0.42
Gore 47.69 39% 91% 8% 1% 43.39 3.81 0.48
Bush 50.13 41% 10% 90% 0% 5.01 45.12 0.00
Other 3.67 3% 71% 21% 8% 2.60 0.77 0.29
Total 122.3 100% 51.41% 47.62% 0.97% 62.86 58.22 1.19
13660 Respondents
11/03 2:05pm
2000 Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 20.79 17% 54% 45% 1% 11.22 9.35 0.21
Gore 45.24 37% 90% 10% 0% 40.72 4.52 0.00
Bush 52.58 43% 9% 91% 0% 4.73 47.84 0.00
Other 3.67 3% 71% 21% 8% 2.60 0.77 0.29
Total 122.3 100% 48.48% 51.11% 0.41% 59.28 62.49 0.50
2004 NEP Demographic Timeline
In order to match the
recorded vote in the Final National Exit Poll ”How Voted in 2000” category, the
exit pollsters had to adjust all category weights and/or vote shares from the
12:22am update (which Kerry won by 51.4-47.6%).
Change: Category weight and/or Kerry vote share decline required to match the final recorded vote
NEP Update 3:59pm 7:33pm 12:22am Final Weight 3:59pm 7:33pm 12:22am Final Vote
Respondents 8349 11027 13047 13660 Change 8349 11027 13047 13660 Change
Category Weight Kerry Vote Share
GENDER
Male 42 46 46 46 47 47 47 44 -3
Female 58 54 54 54 53 54 54 51 -3
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.48 50.78 50.78 47.78
VOTE (mil) 61.72 62.08 62.08 58.42
REGION
East 23 22 22 22 58 58 58 56 -2
Midwest 25 26 26 26 50 50 50 48 -2
South 31 31 31 32 +1 44 45 45 42 -3
West 21 21 21 20 -1 53 53 53 50 -3
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.61 50.84 50.84 48.24
VOTE 61.88 62.16 62.16 58.98
PARTY ID
Democrat 39 38 38 37 -1 90 90 90 89 -1
Republican 36 36 35 37 +2 7 7 7 6 -1
Independent 25 26 27 26 -1 52 52 52 49 -3
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.62 50.24 50.69 47.89
VOTE 61.89 61.42 61.97 58.55
IDEOLOGY
Liberal 22 22 22 21 -1 86 87 86 85 -1
Moderate 45 45 45 45 58 57 57 54 -3
Conservative 33 33 33 34 +1 16 16 16 15 -1
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.3 50.07 49.85 47.25
VOTE 61.50 61.22 60.95 57.77
VOTED 2000
Did Not Vote 15 17 17 17 62 59 57 54 -3
Gore 39 38 39 37 -2 91 91 91 90 -1
Bush 42 41 41 43 +2 9 9 10 9 -1
Other 4 4 3 3 61 65 71 71
PCT 100 100 100 100 51.01 50.9 51.41 48.48
VOTE 62.36 62.23 62.85 59.27
WHEN DECIDED
Today 6 6 6 5 -1 52 54 53 52 -1
Last 3 Days 3 3 3 4 +1 50 54 53 55 +2
Last Week 2 2 2 2 48 48 48 48
Last Month 10 10 10 10 61 61 60 54 -6
Over 30 Days 79 79 79 79 50 50 50 46 -4
PCT 100 100 100 100 51.18 51.42 51.23 47.5
VOTE 62.57 62.87 62.63 58.07
EDUCATION
No High School 4 4 4 4 50 52 52 50 -2
High School Grad 22 22 22 22 50 51 51 47 -4
Some College 30 31 31 32 +1 48 47 47 46 -1
College Grad 26 26 26 26 48 49 48 46 -2
Post Grad 18 17 17 16 -1 58 58 58 55 -3
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.32 50.34 50.21 47.82
VOTE 61.52 61.55 61.39 58.46
RACE/GENDER
White Male 33 36 36 36 40 41 41 37 -4
White Female 44 41 41 41 47 47 47 44 -3
Non-white Male 10 10 10 10 69 70 69 67 -2
Non-white Female 13 13 13 13 77 77 77 75 -2
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.79 51.04 50.94 47.81
VOTE 62.10 62.40 62.28 58.45
AGE
18-29 15 17 17 17 56 56 56 54 -2
30-44 27 27 29 29 48 49 49 46 -3
45-59 31 30 30 30 52 51 51 48 -3
60+ 27 26 24 24 48 48 48 46 -2
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.44 50.53 50.26 47.96
VOTE 61.67 61.78 61.47 58.64
INCOME
0-15k 9 9 9 8 -1 68 66 66 63 -3
15-30 15 15 15 15 59 59 59 57 -2
30-50 22 22 22 22 53 52 52 50 -2
50-75 22 23 23 23 46 45 45 43 -2
75-100 14 13 13 14 +1 49 49 49 45 -4
100-150 11 11 11 11 44 45 45 42 -3
150-200 4 4 4 4 45 47 47 42 -5
200+ 3 3 3 3 40 41 41 35 -6
PCT 100 100 100 100 51.45 51.01 51.01 48.13
VOTE 62.90 62.36 62.36 58.84
RELIGION
Protestant 53 53 53 53 43 43 43 40 -3
Catholic 27 27 27 27 50 50 50 47 -3
Jewish 3 3 3 3 77 77 77 74 -3
Other 7 7 7 7 76 75 75 74 -1
None 10 10 10 10 69 70 70 67 -3
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.82 50.85 50.85 47.99
VOTE 62.13 62.17 62.17 58.67
MILITARY EXPERIENCE
Yes 18 18 18 18 43 43 43 41 -2
No 82 82 82 82 52 53 53 50 -3
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.38 51.2 51.2 48.38
VOTE 61.59 62.60 62.60 59.15
The Bush win scenario was based on the following assumptions:
1) One in 7 (14.63%) Gore 2000 voters defected to Bush in 2004.
The 12:22am NEP reported 8% (10% in the 2pm Final).
2) Kerry won just 52.90% of DNV (new voters and others who did not vote in 2000).
The NEP reported 57% (54% in the Final).
3) Just 7.20% of Bush 2000 voters defected to Kerry.
The NEP reported 10% (9% in the Final).
On the other hand, the True Vote model, which used
feasible weights and plausible vote shares, determined that Kerry
won a 7.7 million vote landslide by 52.6-46.4%.
The assumptions were:
1) 0.87% annual
mortality
2) 95% turnout of
Gore, Bush and Other 2000 voters in 2004
3) 125.74m total votes were cast (Census) in 2004
4) 12:22am NEP
vote shares
True Vote Model Bush Win Scenario
Pct Kerry Bush Other Pct Kerry Bush Other
DNV 21.49% 57% 41% 2% 21.72% 52.90% 46.50% 0.60%
Gore 38.23% 91% 8% 1% 37.84% 84.83% 14.63% 0.54%
Bush 37.83% 10% 90% 0% 37.44% 7.20% 92.31% 0.49%
Other 2.45% 71% 21% 8% 3.00% 65.90% 18.10% 16.00%
Share 100.0% 52.56% 46.43% 1.01% 100.0% 48.26% 50.74% 1.00%
Votes Kerry Bush Other Votes Kerry Bush Other
DNV 27.02 15.40 11.08 0.54 26.56 14.05 12.35 0.16
Gore 48.07 43.74 3.85 0.48 46.28 39.26 6.77 0.25
Bush 47.57 4.76 42.81 0.00 45.79 3.30 42.27 0.22
Other 3.08 2.19 0.65 0.25 3.67 2.42 0.66 0.59
Total 125.74 66.09 58.38 1.27 122.30 59.02 62.05 1.22
Which scenario are we to believe: the implausible 14.63%
Gore defection rate or the mathematically impossible 43 Bush/ 37 Gore
weights? Was the exit poll match to the recorded vote based on a)
plausible 37.84 Gore/ 37.44% Bush weights and an implausible 14.63% Gore
defection rate, or b) the Final NEP impossible 43 Bush/ 37% Gore weights and
plausible (8-10%) Gore defection rate?
They said the reason for the mass defection of Gore voters was due
to a long-term bandwagon effect: former Gore voters wanted to associate with
the “winner”, Bush. But “false recall”
is not a plausible explanation since a) Gore won by 540,000 votes, b) according
to the pristine 12:22am NEP, Kerry captured 91% of Gore voters and 10% of Bush
voters, c) Bush had a 48.5% approval rating on Election Day, d) false recall is
not applicable to pre-election polls and e) the pre-election polls matched the
exit polls.
Why would Gore voters want to be associated with Bush? Even if returning Gore voters lied about their vote in 2000, it’s irrelevant. What is relevant is a) their factual 2000 recorded Gore vote and b) that 91% said they just voted for Kerry. We use this factual data to compute feasible and plausible weights by adjusting the 2000 recorded vote for mortality and estimated 2004 turnout.
False recall cannot be used as an explanation to explain the other demographic weightings. In the 12:22am NEP, 13047 respondents were asked who they just voted for – and Kerry won. But only 3200 respondents were asked how they voted in 2000. Kerry must have also won the 10,000 who were not asked how they voted in 2000. This fact alone totally contradicts the “false recall” argument. Why would respondents lie to the exit pollsters and claim to have voted for Kerry if they voted for Bush? Did they also lie about their gender? Kerry won the Gender demographic by 50.78-48.22%.
GENDER Weight Kerry Bush Other
Male 46% 47% 52% 1%
Female 54% 54% 45% 1%
Share 100% 50.78% 48.22% 1.00%
Votes 122.3 62.10 58.97 1.22
The Election Calculator Model
The model calculates the True Vote for all elections since 1988.
For the 2004 election, the data consists of:
1) Census: 125.7m votes cast in 2004 vs. 122.3m recorded; 3.4m (2.74%) uncounted
2) Census: 110.8m votes cast in 2000 vs. 105.4m recorded; 5.4m (4.86%) uncounted
3) Annual voter mortality: 1.22% (4.88% over 4 years)
Assumptions:
1) 12:22am NEP vote shares
2) 2000 voter turnout in 2004: 95%
3) 75% of uncounted votes to Gore and Kerry
2000 Recorded
Voted Recd Unctd Cast Died Alive
Gore 51.00 4.04 55.04 2.72 52.32
Bush 50.46 1.08 51.53 2.48 49.06
Other 3.96 0.27 4.23 0.21 4.02
Total 105.42 5.38 110.8 5.41 105.39
2004 Calculated
Turnout Voted Weight Kerry Bush Other
DNV - 25.61 20.4% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 95% 49.70 39.5% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 95% 46.60 37.1% 10% 90% 0%
Other 95% 3.82 3.0% 64% 17% 19%
Total 100.1 125.7 100% 53.23% 45.39% 1.38%
66.94 57.07 1.74
The 2006 Midterms
Except for the notorious 2006 FL-13 congressional race in which 18,000 mostly Democratic votes were mysteriously missing, the evidence of massive fraud in the midterm elections is hardly mentioned in the corporate media. But a Pew 2006 Election Analysis describes voting “anomalies” and computer “glitches” that occurred in virtually every state. The fraud probably cost the Democrats 10-20 congressional seats.
The 2006 National Exit Poll “How Voted in 2004” weights were changed from 47 Bush / 45 Kerry at 7pm to 49/43 in the Final NEP the following day. Once again, just like in 2004, the exit pollsters had to match the vote count by expanding the weight spread from 2% to 6%! This had a major effect in cutting the Democratic margin in half - from 55-43% to 52-46%. As noted earlier, the 2004 12:22am NEP “How Voted in 2000” Bush/Gore 41/39 weights were changed to 43/37 in the 2pm Final, turning a 51-48% Kerry victory into a 51-48% loss.
When plausible 49 Kerry/ 46 Bush weights (based on the 2004 NEP) are used, the Democratic margin becomes 56.7-42.1%, exactly matching the 120 pre-election Generic Poll trend line. Was this just a coincidence or another confirmation that the pre-election polls matched the 7pm National Exit Poll?
The Democratic
Tsunami won 31 congressional seats. But they actually did much better than
that. A regression trend analysis of 120 pre-election Generic polls (all won by
the Democrats) projected they would win by 56-42% and gain over 40 seats. The
7pm National Exit Poll (55 Dem-43% Rep) confirmed the pre-election trend. But
the next day, the Final NEP was forced to match a corrupted vote count with
implausible weights and vote shares. The Democratic margin was cut in
half to 52-46%. The fraud resulted in the loss of 10-20 seats.
Generic Pre-election Poll Trend vs. the 7:07pm and Final National Exit Poll
To derive an approximation to the TRUE vote for all demographics, the 7pm NEP vote shares and weights were adjusted to match a 57.8-40.2% Wikipedia Democratic vote margin. The base case assumptions were: a) 4.0% of Democratic votes and 1.4% of Republican/other votes were uncounted and b) 7% of Democratic votes were switched to the Republicans.
The TRUE 16% Democratic margin was based on the 120-Generic poll linear trend which was confirmed in the Wikipedia early vote count. It has always been the case that millions of ballots, mostly Democratic, are never counted. In this election, uncounted ballots accounted for less than half of the total discrepancy. The major fraud factor was vote-switching at the polling place and/or the central tabulator. The analysis does not include the millions of disenfranchised voters (mostly Democratic) who never got to the polls. The Generic LV pre-election polls, as one-sided as they were, low-balled the intended Democratic vote.
In both the 7:07pm and Final 1:00pm Exit Polls, the results were adjusted to obtain an estimated TRUE vote. For each demographic, switched vote rates were applied to final vote shares to determine pre-switch shares. Uncounted votes were subtracted from the 7:07pm exit poll result. Unlike the Final, the 7:07pm poll was NOT matched to the vote count. Uncounted and switched vote shares were added back to the Final since it was contaminated in matching to the vote count.
The theoretical Intended Vote is given by:
IV = Recorded + Uncounted + Switched + Disenfranchised
The True Vote is given by:
TV = Recorded + Uncounted + Switched
2006 National Exit Poll
Source..... Dem Rep Other
CNN-7pm 55.2% 43.4% 1.5%
CNN-Final 52.2% 45.9% 2.5%
NYT 53.1% 44.9% 2.0%
Reported National Vote
Wikipedia 57.7% 41.8% 0.5%
CBS- Nat 52.7% 45.1% 2.2%
CBS-State 51.3% 46.4% 2.3%
120 Generic Poll Linear Regression Trend
Dem Share = 46.98% + .0419x
Rep Share = 38.06% + .0047x
Substituting x = 120 and allocating 60% of the undecided vote (UVA) to the Democrats:
........ Trend + UVA = Projection
Dem = 52.01 + 4.42 = 56.43%
Rep = 38.62 + 2.95 = 41.57%
National Exit Poll Timeline vs. the True Vote (based on the Generic Poll Trend)
VOTED 2004
--------- 7:07pm ----------- -------------- Final -------- ------ True Generic Vote -----
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Kerry 45% 93% 6% 1% 43% 92% 7% 1% 49% 93% 6% 1%
Bush 47% 17% 82% 1% 49% 15% 83% 2% 46% 17% 82% 1%
Other 4% 67% 23% 10% 4% 66% 23% 11% 1% 67% 23% 10%
DNV 4% 67% 30% 3% 4% 66% 32% 2% 4% 67% 30% 3%
TOTAL 100% 55.2% 43.4% 1.4% 100% 52.2% 45.9% 1.9% 100% 56.7% 42.1% 1.2%
Democratic Vote Share Sensitivity to NEP “How Voted in 2004” Weights
National Exit Poll (7pm)
Weight: DNV 4%; Other 4%
7pm
Kerry 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51%
Bush 49% 48% 47% 46% 45% 44% 43% 42% 41%
Dem 53.7% 54.4% 55.2% 56.0% 56.7% 57.5% 58.2% 59.0% 59.8%
Final National Exit Poll (1pm)
Weight: DNV 4%; Other 4%
1pm
Kerry 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51%
Bush 49% 48% 47% 46% 45% 44% 43% 42% 41%
Dem 52.2% 53.0% 53.7% 54.5% 55.3% 56.0% 56.8% 57.6% 58.4%
True Vote
Weight: DNV 4%; Other 1%
True
Kerry 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51%
Bush 52% 51% 50% 49% 48% 47% 46% 45% 44%
Dem 52.2% 52.9% 53.7% 54.5% 55.2% 56.0% 56.7% 57.5% 58.3%