2008 Landslide Denied: A Summary of Statistical Anomalies

March 24, 2009

An analysis based on returning 2004 voters and the Final 2008 National Exit Poll vote shares indicates that Obama more than doubled his recorded 9.46m vote margin. The recorded vote does not represent the True Vote. This analysis will focus on the statistical evidence of 2008 election fraud.

Election bloggers and media pundits won’t discuss the following anomalies that have occurred in all elections since 2000:

1) Likely voter (LV) vs. Registered voter (RV) polls: The average LV poll understated Obama’s RV poll margin by 4%.

2) Final pre-election polls: Undecided voters are not allocated; Obama’s projected margin was reduced 2%.

3) Final National Exit Poll: An impossible returning voter mix reduced Obama’s True Vote by 3-5%.

4) Battleground State Exit Polls: discrepancies exceeded the MoE in 6 of 15 states for McCain

5) Late votes: Obama had 52.3% of 121.2m recorded on Election Day and 59.2% of 10m since;

6) Late 2-party vote shares in battleground states with over 30,000 late votes matched exit polls to within 0.2% - except for MI.

7) Uncounted votes (UVA): 70-80% are Democratic (over 50% in minority districts), resulting in a 1-2% reduction in Obama’s True margin.

The 2008 Election Model (EM) projection exactly matched the 365-173 electoral vote and was close to matching the current popular vote share (52.87-45.62%). The model projected that Obama would receive 365.3 expected electoral votes with a 53.1-44.9% share. But the landslide was denied. See 2008 Landslide Denied: Uncounted Votes and the Final National Exit Poll.

National Pre-election Polls: Registered (RV) vs. Likely Vote (LV) and Undecided Voters

Of the Final 23 polls, 19 were LV and 4 RV. Obama led the LV poll average 50.8-42.7% and the RV average by 52.4-40.3%. Assuming Obama captured 75% of the undecided vote, the RV projection was 56.4-41.6% and the LV was 54.2-43.8%.

Like Kerry, Obama was the de-facto challenger: McCain supported an unpopular incumbent. Typically, 75-90% of the late undecided vote is allocated (UVA) to the challenger, especially when the incumbent is unpopular. Bush had a 22% approval rating.

National Model

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

0.48

State vs. National correlation

Current Poll Average

7-Poll Moving Average

Projected Moving Average Vote (60% UVA)

Poll

Date

Sample

MoE

Obama

McCain

Other

Spread

Obama

McCain

Spread

WinPr

Obama

McCain

Spread

WinPr

Research2k

11/02

1100LV

2.95%

51.0

44.0

5.0

7.0

51.6

43.7

7.9

100.0

54.4

45.6

8.8

100.0

Gallup

11/02

2847RV

1.84%

51.7

43.6

8.1

100.0

54.5

45.5

9.1

100.0

Zogby

11/03

1201LV

2.83%

51.4

43.9

7.6

100.0

54.3

45.7

8.5

100.0

Hotline/FD

11/02

882LV

3.30%

51.0

43.9

7.1

99.9

54.1

45.9

8.2

100.0

Rasmussen

11/02

3000LV

1.79%

51.1

43.6

7.6

99.9

54.3

45.7

8.6

100.0

ABC/WP

11/02

2446RV

1.98%

50.9

43.0

7.9

100.0

54.5

45.5

9.1

100.0

Battleground

10/30

1000LV

3.10%

50.9

42.9

8.0

98.8

54.6

45.4

9.3

99.8

Marist

11/03

804LV

3.46%

51.0

42.6

8.4

100.0

54.9

45.1

9.7

100.0

FOX News

11/03

971LV

3.14%

50.3

42.7

7.6

99.9

54.5

45.5

9.0

100.0

NBC/WSJ

11/02

1011LV

3.08%

50.3

43.0

7.3

100.0

54.3

45.7

8.6

100.0

CNN

11/01

1017LV

3.07%

50.4

42.0

8.4

100.0

55.0

45.0

9.9

100.0

Pew

11/01

2587LV

1.93%

50.7

41.7

9.0

99.8

55.3

44.7

10.5

100.0

CBS

10/31

1005LV

3.09%

51.1

41.3

9.9

100.0

55.7

44.3

11.4

100.0

Marist

10/29

543LV

4.21%

50.4

41.1

9.3

100.0

55.5

44.5

11.0

100.0

FOX News

10/29

924LV

3.22%

50.9

40.6

10.3

90.7

56.0

44.0

12.0

98.3

Final 23 National polls: Averages and projections

Assume: 2.0% to Other; 75% of undecided voters to Obama

Poll Type	Obama	McCain	Spread	BO Proj	JM Proj
LV –19	50.84	42.68	8.16	54.20	43.80
RV -4	52.50	40.25	12.25	56.44	41.56
All –23	51.13	42.26	8.87	54.59	43.41

	Poll	Date	Sample	Obama	McCain	Spread	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Spread
1	Research2k	10/31 - 11/02	1100LV	51	44	7	51.6	43.7	54.0	46.0	54.4	45.6	8.80
2	Gallup	10/31 - 11/02	2847RV	52	41	11	51.7	43.6	56.2	43.8	54.5	45.5	9.09
3	Zogby	11/01 - 11/03	1201LV	54	43	11	51.4	43.9	55.8	44.2	54.3	45.7	8.51
4	Hotline/FD	10/31 - 11/02	882LV	50	45	5	51.0	43.9	53.0	47.0	54.1	45.9	8.17
5	Rasmussen	10/31 - 11/02	3000LV	51	46	5	51.1	43.6	52.8	47.2	54.3	45.7	8.63
6	ABC/WP	10/31 - 11/02	2446RV	54	42	12	50.9	43.0	56.4	43.6	54.5	45.5	9.09
7	Battleground	10/27 - 10/30	1000LV	49	45	4	50.9	42.9	52.6	47.4	54.6	45.4	9.26
8	Marist	11/03 - 11/03	804LV	52	43	9	51.0	42.6	55.0	45.0	54.9	45.1	9.71
9	FOX News	11/02 - 11/03	971LV	50	43	7	50.3	42.7	54.2	45.8	54.5	45.5	8.97
10	NBC/WSJ	11/01 - 11/02	1011LV	51	43	8	50.3	43.0	54.6	45.4	54.3	45.7	8.63
11	CNN	10/30 - 11/01	1017LV	51	43	8	50.4	42.0	54.6	45.4	55.0	45.0	9.94
12	Pew	10/30 - 11/01	2587LV	49	42	7	50.7	41.7	54.4	45.6	55.3	44.7	10.51
13	CBS	10/28 - 10/31	1005LV	54	41	13	51.1	41.3	57.0	43.0	55.7	44.3	11.37
14	Marist	10/29 - 10/29	543LV	50	43	7	50.4	41.1	54.2	45.8	55.5	44.5	10.97
15	FOX News	10/28 - 10/29	924LV	47	44	3	50.9	40.6	52.4	47.6	56.0	44.0	12.00
16	Ipsos	10/23 - 10/27	831LV	50	45	5	51.3	40.3	53.0	47.0	56.3	43.7	12.69
17	Pew	10/23 - 10/26	1325RV	52	36	16	51.6	39.9	59.2	40.8	56.7	43.3	13.43
18	Newsweek	10/22 - 10/23	882LV	53	41	12	51.4	41.3	56.6	43.4	55.8	44.2	11.60
19	CBS/NYT	10/19 - 10/22	771LV	52	39	13	51.0	41.1	57.4	42.6	55.7	44.3	11.43
20	FOX News	10/20 - 10/21	936LV	49	40	9	50.4	41.1	55.6	44.4	55.5	44.5	10.97
21	Pew Resrch	10/16 - 10/19	2382LV	53	39	14	51.0	41.0	57.8	42.2	55.8	44.2	11.60
22	Ipsos	10/16 - 10/20	773LV	50	42	8	50.6	41.3	54.8	45.2	55.5	44.5	10.91
23	NBC/WSJ	10/18 - 10/20	1159RV	52	42	10	51.0	41.4	55.6	44.4	55.5	44.5	11.09

State recorded vs. final Pre-election polls and vote share projections

Obama had a 53.8% projected vote share based on a 75% undecided voter allocation (UVA).

The probability of the 2.1% difference in total margin assumes a 2.0% aggregate margin of error.

The probability of the difference in margin for a state is based on a 3.0% margin of error for the average of the final 2-3 polls.

Recorded (mil)

Vote share %

Pre-election Poll

Projected

Proj Margin

Prob.

18-Dec

Total

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Obama

McCain

Other

Diff

of Diff

WtdAvg

131370

69457

59935

1978

52.87

45.62

1.51

51.29

43.85

53.80

44.69

1.51

1.86

17.7%

2100

813

1267

38.7

60.3

0.9

37.5

61.5

0.9

-2.4

21.5%

326

124

194

37.9

59.4

2.7

39.5

57.8

2.7

3.2

14.2%

2304

1035

1230

44.9

53.4

1.7

47.7

50.6

1.7

5.6

3.1%

1087

422

638

38.9

58.7

2.4

45.9

51.6

2.4

14.1

0.0%

13576

8274

5012

289

61.0

36.9

2.1

61.4

36.5

2.1

0.9

38.2%

2401

1289

1074

53.7

44.7

1.6

52.8

45.6

1.6

-1.8

27.8%

1647

998

629

60.6

38.2

1.2

61.9

37.0

1.2

2.5

20.1%

412

255

152

61.9

36.9

1.1

65.2

33.7

1.1

6.4

1.7%

266

246

92.5

6.5

1.0

90.0

9.0

1.0

-4.9

5.2%

8410

4282

4046

50.9

48.1

1.0

51.3

47.8

1.0

0.7

40.9%

3932

1844

2049

46.9

52.1

1.0

49.0

50.0

1.0

4.2

8.3%

454

326

121

71.8

26.6

1.6

70.6

27.9

1.6

-2.6

19.9%

657

236

403

36.0

61.3

2.7

34.7

62.6

2.7

-2.5

19.8%

5523

3420

2032

61.9

36.8

1.3

61.3

37.4

1.3

-1.3

33.5%

2753

1374

1346

49.9

48.9

1.2

49.6

49.2

1.2

-0.6

41.7%

1537

829

682

53.9

44.4

1.7

58.0

40.3

1.7

8.1

0.3%

1238

515

700

41.6

56.5

1.9

41.3

56.8

1.9

-0.5

42.9%

1828

752

1048

41.1

57.4

1.5

42.9

55.6

1.5

3.5

12.4%

1961

783

1148

39.9

58.6

1.5

46.4

52.1

1.5

12.9

0.0%

731

422

295

57.7

40.4

1.9

55.3

42.8

1.9

-4.8

5.6%

2632

1629

960

61.9

36.5

1.6

59.5

38.8

1.6

-4.7

5.7%

3081

1904

1109

61.8

36.0

2.2

59.3

38.4

2.2

-4.9

5.0%

5007

2873

2049

57.4

40.9

1.7

58.5

39.8

1.7

2.2

23.3%

2910

1573

1275

54.1

43.8

2.1

54.4

43.5

2.1

0.7

40.7%

1290

555

725

43.0

56.2

0.8

45.1

54.0

0.8

4.3

8.0%

2928

1442

1446

49.3

49.4

1.4

51.2

47.4

1.4

4.0

9.5%

491

232

243

47.2

49.4

3.4

49.2

47.4

3.4

4.1

8.5%

801

333

453

41.6

56.5

1.9

40.8

57.3

1.9

-1.5

30.9%

968

534

413

55.1

42.7

2.2

53.1

44.7

2.2

-4.1

8.6%

711

385

317

54.1

44.5

1.4

55.7

42.9

1.4

3.2

14.3%

3876

2215

1613

57.2

41.6

1.2

59.3

39.4

1.2

4.3

7.5%

830

472

347

56.9

41.8

1.3

53.5

45.2

1.3

-6.8

1.2%

7595

4770

2742

62.8

36.1

1.1

66.9

32.0

1.1

8.3

0.3%

4311

2143

2128

49.7

49.4

0.9

50.6

48.5

0.9

1.7

28.6%

318

141

169

44.5

53.1

2.5

49.4

48.1

2.5

9.9

0.0%

5710

2933

2674

102

51.4

46.8

1.8

52.7

45.6

1.8

2.6

19.6%

1463

502

960

34.4

65.6

0.0

36.3

63.8

0.0

3.8

10.8%

1828

1037

738

56.7

40.4

2.9

57.6

39.5

2.9

1.7

28.1%

6013

3276

2656

54.5

44.2

1.3

54.7

43.9

1.3

0.5

43.3%

470

297

165

63.1

35.2

1.7

59.0

39.3

1.7

-8.3

0.3%

1921

862

1035

44.9

53.9

1.2

45.1

53.7

1.2

0.4

45.2%

382

171

203

44.7

53.2

2.1

44.7

53.2

2.1

-0.1

48.2%

2600

1087

1479

41.8

56.9

1.3

43.5

55.2

1.3

3.4

12.8%

8087

3529

4479

43.6

55.4

1.0

44.8

54.3

1.0

2.3

22.7%

956

328

596

34.3

62.3

3.4

38.5

58.2

3.4

8.4

0.2%

325

219

67.5

30.5

2.1

61.4

36.5

2.1

-12.1

0.0%

3723

1960

1725

52.6

46.3

1.0

52.5

46.5

1.0

-0.3

45.8%

3049

1751

1229

57.4

40.3

2.3

57.6

40.2

2.3

0.3

46.5%

715

304

398

42.6

55.7

1.8

46.7

51.6

1.8

8.3

0.3%

2983

1677

1262

56.2

42.3

1.5

57.4

41.1

1.5

2.4

21.7%

255

165

32.5

64.8

2.7

38.2

59.1

2.7

11.4

0.0%

The Final 2008 National Exit Poll: impossible number of returning Bush and Other voters

Implied	2004	Total	Mix	Obama	McCain	Other	Obama	McCain	Other
Vote	DNV	17.08	13%	71%	27%	2%	12.1	4.6	0.3
42.5%	Kerry	48.61	37%	89%	9%	2%	43.3	4.4	1.0
52.9%	Bush	60.43	46%	17%	82%	1%	10.3	49.6	0.6
4.6%	Other	5.25	4%	66%	24%	10%	3.5	1.3	0.5
114.3	Total	131.37	100%	52.62%	45.52%	1.86%	69.13	59.80	2.44

The Final 2008 National Exit Poll is always forced to match the recorded vote and indicates that returning Bush 2004 voters comprised 46% (60.4m) of the 131.37m voters in 2008. Bush won by an official 62.0-59.0 million recorded votes in 2004. Approximately 3.0m (4.8%) died. therefore at most 59.0m Bush voters retuned in 2008. Assuming that 3.0m did not vote (95% turnout), the Final indicates there were 4 million more returning Bush voters than could have voted. The returning voter mix implies that Bush won by 52.9-42.5%. But the actual recorded vote was 50.73-48.27%

The Final indicates that returning Kerry voters comprised just 37% (48.4m) of the 2008 electorate. Kerry had 59.0 million recorded votes in 2004. . How could there have been 11.7 million more returning Bush voters than Kerry voters when Bush won by just 3.0 million? One would expect that Kerry voters would be more motivated to vote for Obama than Bush voters for McCain.

The Final indicates that other (third-party) 2004 voters comprised 4% of the 2008 electorate – another impossibility. There were only 1.22m third party voters in 2004 (1% of the total).

If the 2004 unadjusted state exit polls are to be believed, Kerry won by 52-47% (63.6-57.5m). Assuming a 5% voter mortality rate, 54.6m Bush voters were alive in 2008. If 51.9m (95%) voted in 2008, the 2008 Final NEP inflated the number of returning Bush voters by 8.5 million.

The 2008 Final NEP is impossible. And because it was forced to match the recorded vote, the 2008 recorded vote must also have been impossible.

The impossible 46/37 Bush/Kerry returning voter mix in the Final 2008 NEP is nothing new. In 2004 the Final reported a 43/37 Bush/Gore returning voter mix of the 2004 electorate. The Bush 43% share was mathematically and physically impossible since it implied that Bush had 52.6 million votes in 2000 but he had 50.5m, of whom approximately 2.5 million died. Therefore, only 48m former Bush voters were alive in 2004. The 2004 Final overstated the number of returning Bush 2000 voters by more than 4.5 million.

The Post-election 2008 Election Calculator – two scenarios

The Election Calculator used Final 2008 NEP vote shares but not the impossible NEP return voter mix.

The assumptions were the following:

2004: 3.45 million uncounted (2.74% based on Census data), 4.8% mortality (table)

Turnout: 97% of living 2004 voters in 2008 (based on best estimates of 2008 votes cast and returning 2004 voters)

Uncounted votes in 2008: 3% of total votes cast (estimated)

The first scenario used the recorded 2004 vote (Bush 50.73 - Kerry 48.27%) as the basis for the returning voter mix.

Obama won by 16.8 million votes – a 7.3 million increase over his recorded margin.

The second scenario used the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (Kerry 52 - Bush 47%) as the basis for the mix.

Obama won by 21.9 million - a 12.4 million increase over his recorded margin.

Scenario 1 (implausible): returning voter mix based on the recorded 2004 vote.

Obama wins by 16.81m: 75.01-58.20 (55.38-42.98%)

						2008		Calculated Vote
2004	Recorded	Uncounted	Cast	Deaths	Alive	Turnout	Voted	Mix	Obama	McCain	Other
DNV							19.42	14.34%	71%	27%	2%
Kerry	59.03	2.58	61.61	2.96	58.65	96.9%	56.85	42.0%	89%	9%	2%
Bush	62.04	0.83	62.87	3.02	59.85	96.9%	58.01	42.8%	17%	82%	1%
Other	1.23	0.03	1.26	0.06	1.20	96.9%	1.16	0.86%	66%	24%	10%

Total	122.30	3.45	125.74	6.04	119.70	116.0	135.43	100%	55.38%	42.98%	1.64%
							Cast	135.43	75.01	58.20	2.22
								Recorded	52.87%	45.62%	1.51%
								131.37	69.46	59.94	1.98

Scenario 2 (plausible): returning voter mix based on the unadjusted 2004 exit poll shares.

a) Obama wins by 21.86m: 77.52-55.66 (57.2-41.08%)

						2008		Calculated Vote
2004	Exit Poll	Uncounted	Cast	Deaths	Alive	Turnout	Voted	Mix	Obama	McCain	Other
DNV							19.42	14.34%	71%	27%	2%
Kerry	63.59	1.79	65.38	3.14	62.25	96.9%	60.33	44.5%	89%	9%	2%
Bush	57.47	1.62	59.09	2.84	56.26	96.9%	54.52	40.3%	17%	82%	1%
Other	1.23	0.03	1.26	0.06	1.20	96.9%	1.16	0.86%	66%	24%	10%

Total	122.30	3.45	125.74	6.04	119.70	116.0	135.43	100%	57.24%	41.10%	1.67%
							Cast	135.43	77.52	55.66	2.26
								Recorded	52.87%	45.62%	1.51%
								131.37	69.46	59.94	1.98

Battleground Exit Poll Discrepancies and Late votes: 6 of 15 states beyond the margin of error

Obama had a 54.08% aggregate share in the unadjusted, preliminary exit polls of 15 battleground states.

His recorded aggregate share is 52.16% in the 15 states.

The 2.0% state exit poll MoE was exceeded in 6 states in favor of McCain: FL, MI, MN, MO, OH and PA.

Probabilities of the unadjusted exit poll discrepancies

The probability that the MoE would be exceeded in at least 6 of 15 states in favor of McCain is 1 in 994,000.

The probability is calculated by the Excel binomial distribution function: = 1– BINOMDIST (5, 15, .025, true)

(.025 is the probability that the exit poll discrepancy would exceed the MoE for McCain in any given state)

Obama’s 2-party recorded vote share in the 15 states is 52.91%; the corresponding exit poll share is 54.81%.

The probability of the discrepancy is calculated in Excel:

Prob = 0.65% = NORMDIST (.5291, .5482, .015/1.96, true)

An aggregate 1.5% MoE is assumed.

Exit Poll

Recorded

Unadj. Exit Poll

Margin

EP Diff

Prob of

Obama 2-party

States

Late Votes

Obama

McCain

Other

Obama

McCain

Difference

Exceeds

Difference

Exit Poll

Late Vote

Exit-Late

(thousands)

52.2

46.4

1.4

54.1

44.6

3.9

MoE?

0.65%

54.1

60.4

(6.2)

405

50.9

48.1

5.2

yes

0.4%

54.2

54.7

(0.5)

46.9

52.1

1.2

28.3%

48.0

55.0

(7.0)

49.9

48.9

1.2

7.0%

52.0

59.8

(7.8)

53.9

44.4

1.7

-5.3

yes

0.4%

52.0

70.3

(18.3)

120

57.4

40.9

1.7

4.5

yes

1.4%

60.6

89.8

(29.2)

1.6

54.1

43.8

2.1

10.8

yes

0.0%

60.6

71.3

(10.7)

49.3

49.4

1.4

4.2

yes

2.0%

52.0

61.7

(9.7)

55.1

42.7

2.2

-2.4

9.3%

55.0

54.7

0.3

54.1

44.5

1.4

-1.6

24.5%

54.2

52.4

1.8

56.9

41.8

1.3

-1.9

17.2%

56.6

69.3

(12.7)

49.7

49.4

0.9

3.7

3.6%

52.0

50.6

1.4

500

51.4

46.8

1.8

5.2

yes

0.5%

54.5

56.2

(1.7)

169

54.5

44.2

1.3

4.8

yes

0.9%

57.6

57.2

0.4

42.6

55.7

1.8

3.1

5.2%

45.0

40.9

4.1

56.2

42.3

1.5

2.1

17.3%

58.0

61.5

(3.5)

Initial vs. Late Votes: a consistent 10-15% discrepancy in the Democratic margin

Dave Leip's Election Atlas indicates that 131.37m votes have been recorded. Obama currently leads by 69.46-59.94m (52.87-45.62%). On Election Day 121.21m votes were recorded and he led by 63.44-56.13m (52.3-46.3%), a 6.0% margin. Obama has a 59.16-37.48% share of the 10.16m votes recorded since Election Day, a 21.5% margin. Gore and Kerry had late vote margins that far exceeded their initial margins.

In the last 3 elections, the average Democratic 2-party late vote share is 7% higher than the initial share.

Obama’s late vote share increased over his initial Election Day share in 13 of the18 states that had over 100,000 late votes. The states with the largest number of late votes were CA, WA, CT, NY and OH. Oddly, there was no change Obama’s share in CA and WA, the two West Coast states with the largest number of late votes. On the other hand, his late New York share was 8.5% higher, OH 2.9%, CT 2.1%. These states had significant late vote increases in Obama’s share: OR, CO, MD, VA, NJ, IL and MI.

Unadjusted exit poll data was downloaded for 15 states. In states with over 30,000 late votes, the 2-party exit poll shares closely matched the late vote shares to within 0.2% - if Michigan is excluded. In MI, Obama had an inexplicable 89.8% of the 120,000 late votes compared to 60.6% in the exit poll.

New York State: 2000-2008 Late Votes

How does one explain the New York State late vote anomalies in the last three elections? There were 1.56 million late votes compared to 20.1 million on Election Day, a 7.8% increase. The average Democratic late vote share was 70.2%; the Election Day share was 60.0%.

New York Late Votes: 2000-2008

(in millions)

Late Dem Share Initial Dem Share

2000 0.483 0.36 74% 6.3 3.78 60%

2004 0.499 0.33 66% 6.8 3.94 58%

2008 0.584 0.41 70.7% 7.0 4.34 62.2

Total 1.566 1.10 70.2% 20.1 12.1 60.0%

Late Vote Timeline

Obama’s late vote share has increased at a steady 59-61% rate except for the Nov. 21-30 period (53.65%).

On Election Day, 121.2m votes were recorded; Obama led by 52.3-46.3% (53.1% of the 2-party vote).

Obama has 59.2% of the 10.16m late votes, a 15.5% increase in margin.

2008 Total Obama McCain Other Obama McCain Other

Nov. 4 121.21 63.44 56.13 1.64 52.34% 46.31% 1.35%

Late 2.93 1.73 1.16 0.03 59.17% 39.66% 1.17%

Nov. 11 124.13 65.18 57.29 1.67 52.50% 46.15% 1.35%

Late 2.37 1.40 0.92 0.05 59.20% 38.73% 2.07%

Nov. 12 126.50 66.58 58.20 1.72 52.63% 46.01% 1.36%

Late 0.75 0.45 0.28 0.02 60.38% 36.71% 2.91%

Nov. 17 127.25 67.03 58.48 1.74 52.68% 45.96% 1.37%

Late 0.86 0.53 0.28 0.05 61.88% 32.54% 5.57%

Nov. 21 128.11 67.56 58.76 1.79 52.74% 45.87% 1.40%

Late 1.09 0.59 0.45 0.06 53.65% 41.23% 5.11%

Nov. 30 129.20 68.15 59.21 1.84 52.75% 45.83% 1.43%

Late 2.17 1.31 0.73 0.13 60.38% 33.50% 6.12%

18-Dec 131.37 69.457 59.935 1.978 52.87% 45.62% 1.51%

Total Late 10.163 6.013 3.809 0.342 59.16% 37.48% 3.36%

On Election Day 2004, 116.7m votes were recorded; Bush led by 51.2-48.3%.

Kerry had 54.2% of the 4.8m late 2-party votes, a 10.4% increase in margin.

There were 3.4m uncounted votes.

2004 Total KERRY BUSH OTHER KERRY BUSH OTHER

Initial 116.7 56.40 59.80 0.40 48.32% 51.24% 0.44%

2-party 116.2 56.40 59.80 na 45.53% 51.57%

Late 5.6 2.60 2.20 0.80 46.90% 39.40% 13.70%

2-party 4.8 2.60 2.20 na 54.20% 45.80%

Final 122.3 59.03 62.04 1.20 48.27% 50.73% 1.00%

2-party 121.07 59.03 62.04 na 48.76% 51.24%

On Election Day 2000, 102.6m votes were recorded; Gore led by 48.3-48.1% (50.1% of the 2-party vote).

Gore had 55.6% of the 2.7m late 2-party votes, an 11.0% increase in margin.

There were 5.4m uncounted votes.

2000 Total GORE BUSH OTHER GORE BUSH OTHER

Initial 102.6 49.50 49.30 3.80 48.25% 48.05% 3.70%

2-party 98.8 49.50 49.30 na 50.10% 49.90%

Late 2.8 1.50 1.20 0.10 53.60% 42.90% 3.50%

2-party 2.7 1.50 1.20 na 55.56% 44.40%

Final 105.41 51.00 50.46 3.95 48.38% 47.87% 3.75%

2-party 101.46 51.00 50.46 na 50.27% 49.73%

2004 Late Vote Analysis

The Initial and Late Vote discrepancy is a red flag. It indicates that the 2004 election was decided when 116m votes were recorded; election fraud was no longer necessary. Late votes were irrelevant when Bush was declared the winner. The media reported that Bush won by 3.5m votes; they still quote that initial margin today. Edison-Mitofsky matched the Final Exit Poll to the initial 116 million recorded votes.

There was a 12% discrepancy in margin between the initial 116.3 million votes and the final 6.0m, resulting in a 0.5m decline in the official Bush margin (3.5 to 3.0m).

There was a strong 0.72 correlation between the late state vote shares and the exit polls. There was an even stronger 0.93 correlation for states with more than 40,000 late votes.

This is further evidence that the "pristine" exit polls were close to the true vote:

1) High correlation between state exit polls and late vote shares

2) Small discrepancies between the exit polls and the late vote shares

3) Higher Kerry share of late votes compared to initial recorded votes

How does one explain the discrepancies between the initial and late recorded state vote shares? Kerry’s late vote share exceeded his initial share in 38 states (15 of 19 battleground states). Corresponding vote discrepancies were significant in the East but near zero in the Far West, strongly suggesting election fraud in early-reporting, vote-rich battleground states. A false impression was created that Bush was winning the popular vote while the state and national exit polls indicated that Kerry was winning big. In the Far Western states there was virtually no difference between the 15.6m initial and 3.3m late recorded vote shares; Kerry was a steady 53% winner. But the Far West average exit poll WPE was 6.4%, indicating a 56% Kerry share. Was vote-padding still in effect?

Uncounted Votes: millions of Democratic votes are never counted in every election

The tremendous GOTV and new registration effort has not resulted in the expected increase in the recorded vote from 2004. There was a 17m net increase in recorded votes from 2000 to 2004 (105m to 122m). The media should be asking the questions. Why is the recorded count only 130.7m when a 140m+ turnout was forecast? How many touch screen votes were lost in cyberspace; how many optical scanned or provisional ballots were lost?

According to the 2004 U.S. Vote Census, 122.3m votes were recorded out of 125.7m cast; in 2000, 105.4m were recorded of 110.8m cast. Democrats traditionally win 70-80% of the uncounted vote. Historically, about 75% of uncounted votes (spoiled, lost, provisional and absentee) are Democratic. But we will have to wait until the Census Bureau publishes its 2008 vote survey to know how many votes were cast.

Exit poll critics claim that the large (5.4 WPE) 1992 exit poll discrepancy proves that the 2004 discrepancy (7.1 WPE) was not unique; therefore it is "crap" and "bad science" to conclude that elections are stolen based on unadjusted exit polls. Critics claim there were no allegations of fraud in 1992 when the WPE was 5.4. They fail to mention or are unaware that Clinton beat Bush I by 44.9-39.1m (43.0-37.4%) but that 9.4m votes were uncounted. Approximately 70-80% of uncounted votes are Democratic in every election. When the 9.4m uncounted votes are added back, the adjusted vote is 52.0-41.5m. The 45.7-36.4% vote share exactly matched the unadjusted exit poll.

Uncounted votes have steadily declined as percent of total votes cast - from 10.4% in 1988 to 2.7% in 2004. When uncounted votes are included in order to derive total votes cast for the five elections from 1988-2004, the adjusted Democratic vote is within 0.1% of the unadjusted exit poll share.

In every one of the last five elections the unadjusted Democratic exit poll share exceeded the recorded vote. But which of the five elections stands out from the rest? Only in 2004 did the ADJUSTED vote come up short of the EXIT POLL share. The 2004 exit poll discrepancies were different in kind and scope from those of the prior four elections. Unlike 1988-2000, the 2004 discrepancies cannot be explained by uncounted votes alone.

Comparing the adjusted vote to the aggregate state exit polls and the recorded vote:

(2-party exit poll in parenthesis)

Year Democrat Recorded EPoll 2pty Adjusted

Average 46.9 48.8 (52.7) 48.9

1988 Dukakis 45.6 46.8 (47.3) 48.7

1992 Clinton 43.0 45.7 (56.8) 45.7

1996 Clinton 49.2 50.2 (55.8) 51.4

2000 Gore 48.4 49.4 (51.4) 49.7

2004 Kerry 48.3 51.8 (52.3) 49.0

Adding Kerry's 75% share of 3.4m uncounted votes brings his final total to 67.4m (53.5%). This is quite close to the Election Calculator model which determined that he won by 53.2-45.4%.

The model accounted for total votes cast in 2000 (recorded plus uncounted) assuming 5% voter mortality and a 95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004. The 12:22am Composite NEP vote shares were used to calculate the vote.